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This paper addresses the representation of landscape complexity in stated preferences research. It integrates landscape ecology and landscape economics and conducts the landscape analysis in a three-dimensional space to provide ecologically meaningful quantitative landscape indicators that are used as variables for the monetary valuation of landscape in a stated preferences study. Expected heterogeneity in taste intensity across respondents is addressed with a mixed logit model in willingness to pay space. Our methodology is applied to value, in monetary terms, the landscape of the Sorrento Peninsula in Italy, an area that has faced increasing pressure from urbanisation affecting its traditional horticultural, herbaceous, and arboreal structure, with loss of biodiversity, and an increasing risk of landslides. We find that residents of the Sorrento Peninsula would prefer landscapes characterised by large open views and natural features. Residents also appear to dislike increasing level of landscape heterogeneity and the presence of lemon orchards and farmers' stewardship, which are associated with the current failure of protecting the traditional landscape. The outcomes suggest that the use of landscape ecology metrics in a stated preferences model may be an effective way to move forward integrated methodologies to better understand and represent landscape and its complexity.

Using census data on work commuting in Albania – collected for the first time in 2011 – this study examines the spatial adjustment processes between demand and supply of labour across the country. The first part focuses on the spatial adjustment of labour forces that occur within and between Albanian’s prefectures. Several statistical indicators, derived using origin-destination matrices, measure the differential levels of attraction and expulsion of each prefecture. Results show a high level of heterogeneity and emphasise the crucial role of spatial contiguity among prefectures on this spatial dynamic. The second part examines the role of the municipality of Tirana. This is first investigated within a three-territorial-units system (the municipality of Tirana, rest of the prefecture and rest of Albania) and then within the prefecture as a closed system. Interestingly, 71.5% of all the commuting flows directed to the Municipality originate from municipalities located very close to Tirana (less than 10 km). We conclude that the spatial structure of the prefecture, reasonably extendable to the whole country, can be defined as monocentric. Further studies should focus on the implied costs of this system to the society and environment of Albania.

This work was funded by the NERC Research project Coastal Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (CBESS) project Grant NE/J015644/1 with support from the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Service Sustainability (BESS) programme. BESS is a six-year programme (2011–2017) funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) as part of the UK's Living with Environmental Change (LWEC) programme. Biodiversity is valuable to society, including through its contribution to cultural benefits: “the non-material benefits people obtain from biodiversity and ecosystem services through spiritual enrichment, cognitive development, reflection, recreation, and aesthetic experiences”. Biodiversity encompasses numerous measures, but the distinct values of these measures have been little studied. We conducted a discrete choice experiment to elicit respondents’ (n = 3,000) willingness to pay for increases in four measures of bird diversity in UK coastal ecosystems: number of bird species (species richness), number of individual birds (abundance), probability of seeing rare or unusual bird species, and probability of seeing large flocks of birds (wildlife spectacles). Respondents had a positive willingness to pay (through one-time voluntary donations) for increases in all four measures (mean £3 to £5 per household). However, using latent class analysis we found considerable heterogeneity of preferences, identifying four classes of respondents with strikingly different levels of marginal willingness to pay for the four measures. Income, age, environmental activity, visits to environmental settings, and gender were important determinants of class membership. While focusing on birds, our results demonstrate the importance of a multi-dimensional conceptualisation of biodiversity in broader ecosystem management, rather than focussing on a single aspect such as species richness or abundance. Our findings also highlight the implications of heterogeneous public preferences for biodiversity for conservationists, planners, shoreline managers and developers. These need to be considered in the development of new frameworks for ecosystem services, and when planning and funding conservation actions so that the cultural benefits will accrue across a range of social groups. Postprint

Value assessments of new treatments for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) should include outcomes that are most important to patients. This study aimed to quantify and compare the conditional relative importance of the attributes of RCC treatments to patients and physicians in the United States. Patients with RCC and physicians who treat RCC completed an online discrete-choice experiment survey with a fractional factorial D-optimal experimental design. In a series of 12 questions, respondents chose between two hypothetical treatments defined in terms of six attributes: progression-free survival (PFS), probability of living ≥ 3 years (PL3Y), skin reactions, severity of fatigue, mode of administration, and monthly co-payment. Treatment choices were analyzed using a random-parameters logit model to estimate relative preference weights for the attribute levels and conditional relative attribute importance (i.e. the importance of an attribute relative to all other attributes conditional on the range of levels of that attribute). Overall, 201 patients and 142 physicians completed the survey. For both patients and physicians, PL3Y was the attribute with the greatest and statistically significant conditional relative importance. Estimates of the conditional relative importance of PFS, skin reactions, and mode of administration for patients, and for PFS and mode of administration for physicians, were not statistically significant. The preferences for improvements in PFS were independent of the level of PL3Y for both patients and physicians. Conditional relative attribute importance varied by patient disease stage. Patients and physicians indicated that PL3Y was the most important treatment attribute and was significantly more important than PFS. Importance rankings differed between physicians and patients and between all patients and those with advanced/metastatic disease.

A prototype decision support IT-tool for the food industry was developed in the STARTEC project. Typical processes and decision steps were mapped using real life production scenarios of participating food companies manufacturing complex ready-to-eat foods. Companies looked for a more integrated approach when making food safety decisions that would align with existing HACCP systems. The tool was designed with shelf life assessments and data on safety, quality, and costs, using a pasta salad meal as a case product. The process flow chart was used as starting point, with simulation options at each process step. Key parameters like pH, water activity, costs of ingredients and salaries, and default models for calculations of Listeria monocytogenes, quality scores, and vitamin C, were placed in an interactive database. Customization of the models and settings was possible on the user-interface. The simulation module outputs were provided as detailed curves or categorized as “good”; “sufficient”; or “corrective action needed” based on threshold limit values set by the user. Possible corrective actions were suggested by the system. The tool was tested and approved by end-users based on selected ready-to-eat food products. Compared to other decision support tools, the STARTEC-tool is product-specific and multidisciplinary and includes interpretation and targeted recommendations for end-users.

The received wisdom is that patterns of alcohol consumption in Mediterranean countries are healthier than in northern European counterparts. However, recent surveys highlight the growing tendency by younger generations to change drinking-style. This increases the concern over adoption of unhealthy consumption behaviours that might be carried over in later age. What remains unexplored are the details of these emerging consumption patterns. The objective of this paper is to cast some light on these phenomena using stated choice data. This study quantitatively explores consumption contexts and links them to characteristics of young Italians. Data collected from a questionnaire completed by 556 respondents are used to estimate a Latent Class Model. Results reveal the existence of eight distinct consumption patterns, some of them far from the Mediterranean tradition. Socialization is the main motivation for alcohol consumption. Consumption of wine, the traditional Mediterranean drink, appears to be in the process of being re-discovered and re-appreciated.

Currently, in the United States, 130 000 people live with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), and almost 20 000 new cases of CLL are diagnosed each year. Little is known about the value patients place upon the attributes of available CLL treatments, which vary in efficacy, side effects, and mode of administration. We used a discrete-choice experiment (DCE) to investigate patients' preferences for treatment attributes and the impact of out-of-pocket cost on patients' choices. DCE surveys pose a series of choices between hypothetical treatment options, each defined by a set of attributes, and the responses provide quantitative estimates of the average relative preferences for treatment attribute. Each hypothetical treatment in this survey was defined by 5 attributes with predefined levels for efficacy, adverse events, and mode administration. A patient advocacy organization recruited 384 patients with a self-reported physician diagnosis of CLL to complete the online survey. Respondents placed the highest relative importance on longer progression-free survival (PFS). However, the risk of adverse events also was important, as significant additional PFS was needed to offset patients' acceptance of worsening adverse events. A supplemental question with 2 treatments and varying costs was included to assess the impact of cost on choice. When costs were included, a large proportion of patients changed their choices between the 2 treatments. Given the available treatments and the high cost of some treatments, physicians may want to explore their patients' preferences for different treatment features, including benefit-risk tradeoffs and out-of-pocket cost, when selecting the best treatment strategies for patients.

This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimisation (RRM) to the field of health economics. The RRM is a regret-based model that explores a driver of choice different from the traditional utility-based Random Utility Maximisation (RUM). The RRM approach is based on the idea that, when choosing, individuals aim to minimise their regret–regret being defined as what one experiences when a non-chosen alternative in a choice set performs better than a chosen one in relation to one or more attributes. Analysing data from a discrete choice experiment on diet, physical activity and risk of a fatal heart attack in the next ten years administered to a sample of the Northern Ireland population, we find that the combined use of RUM and RRM models offer additional information, providing useful behavioural insights for better informed policy appraisal.

Symptom report scales are used in clinical practice to monitor patient outcomes. Using them permits the definition of a minimum clinically important difference (MCID) beyond which a patient may be judged as having responded to treatment. Despite recommendations that clinicians routinely use MCIDs in clinical practice, statisticians disagree about how MCIDs should be used to evaluate individual patient outcomes and responses to treatment. To address this issue, we asked how clinicians actually use MCIDs to evaluate patient outcomes in response to treatment. Sixty-eight psychiatrists made judgments about whether hypothetical patients had responded to treatment based on their pre- and posttreatment change scores on the widely used Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Psychiatrists were provided with the scale’s MCID on which to base their judgments. Our secondary objective was to assess whether knowledge of the patient’s genotype influenced psychiatrists’ responder judgments. Thus, psychiatrists were also informed of whether patients possessed a genotype indicating hyperresponsiveness to treatment. While many psychiatrists appropriately used the MCID, others accepted a far lower posttreatment change as indicative of a response to treatment. When psychiatrists accepted a lower posttreatment change than the MCID, they were less confident in such judgments compared to when a patient’s posttreatment change exceeded the scale’s MCID. Psychiatrists were also less likely to identify patients as responders to treatment if they possessed a hyperresponsiveness genotype. Clinicians should recognize that when judging patient responses to treatment, they often tolerate lower response thresholds than warranted. At least some conflate their judgments with information, such as the patient’s genotype, that is irrelevant to a post hoc response-to-treatment assessment. Consequently, clinicians may be at risk of persisting with treatments that have failed to demonstrate patient benefits.

Background This study applies attribute nonattendance to medical decision making. We aimed to demonstrate how this type of analysis can be used in medical decision making to assess whether psychiatrists were influenced in their treatment recommendations by information on the genotype of a patient, despite knowing the patient's response to treatment as measured by the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. A patient's genetic information may be used to predict their response to therapy; such information, however, becomes redundant, and should not influence decisions, once a clinician knows the patient's actual response to treatment. Methods Sixty-seven psychiatrists were presented with patients' pre- or post-treatment scores on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale for two hypothetical treatments for schizophrenia. Psychiatrists were also informed whether the patient possessed a genotype linked to hyper-responsiveness to one of the treatments, and were asked to recommend one of these two treatments. Attribute nonattendance assessed whether the information on genotype influenced psychiatrists' treatment recommendations. Results Years of experience predicted whether psychiatrists were influenced by the genetic information. Psychiatrists with 1 year or less of experience had a 46% probability of considering genetic information, whereas psychiatrists with at least 15 years of experience had a lower probability (7%). Conclusions Psychiatrists and other clinicians should be cautious about allowing a patient's genetic information to carry unnecessary weight in their clinical decision making.

While the repeated nature of discrete choice experiments is advantageous from a sampling efficiency perspective, patterns of choice may differ across the tasks, due, in part, to learning and fatigue. Using probabilistic decision process models, we find in a field study that learning and fatigue behavior may only be exhibited by a small subset of respondents. Most respondents in our sample show preference and variance stability consistent with rational pre-existent and well formed preferences. Nearly all of the remainder exhibit both learning and fatigue effects. An important aspect of our approach is that it enables learning and fatigue effects to be explored, even though they were not envisaged during survey design or data collection.

Objective To investigate the characteristics of those doing no moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (0 days/week), some MVPA (1–4 days/week) and sufficient MVPA (≥ 5 days/week) to meet the guidelines in order to effectively develop and target PA interventions to address inequalities in participation. Method A population survey (2010/2011) of 4653 UK adults provided data on PA and socio-demographic characteristics. An ordered logit model investigated the covariates of 1) participating in no PA, 2) participating in some PA, and 3) meeting the PA guidelines. Model predictions were derived for stereotypical subgroups to highlight important policy and practice implications. Results Mean age of participants was 45 years old (95% CI 44.51, 45.58) and 42% were male. Probability forecasting showed that males older than 55 years of age (probability = 0.20; 95% CI 0.11, 0.28), and both males (probability = 0.31; 95% CI 0.17, 0.45) and females (probability = 0.38; 95% CI 0.27, 0.50) who report poor health are significantly more likely to do no PA. Conclusions Understanding the characteristics of those doing no MVPA and some MVPA could help develop population-level interventions targeting those most in need. Findings suggest that interventions are needed to target older adults, particularly males, and those who report poor health.

This study uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to elicit willingness to pay estimates for changes in the water quality of three rivers. As many regions the metropolitan region Berlin–Brandenburg struggles to achieve the objectives of the Water Framework Directive until 2015. A major problem is the high load of nutrients. As the region is part of two states (Lander) and the river sections are common throughout the whole region we account for the spatial context twofold. Firstly, we incorporate the distance between each respondent and all river stretches in all MNL and RPL models, and, secondly, we consider whether respondents reside in the state of Berlin or Brandenburg. The compensating variation (CV) calculated for various scenarios shows that overall people would significantly benefit from improved water quality. The CV measures, however, also reveal that not considering the spatial context would result in severely biased welfare measures. While the distance decay effect lowers CV, state residency is connected to the frequency of status quo choices and not accounting for residency would underestimate possible welfare gains in one state. Another finding is that the extent of the market varies with respect to attributes (river stretches) and attribute levels (water quality levels).

This study is the first to compare random regret minimisation (RRM) and random utility maximisation (RUM) in freight transport application. This paper aims to compare RRM and RUM in a freight transport scenario involving negative shock in the reference alternative. Based on data from two stated choice experiments conducted among Swiss logistics managers, this study contributes to related literature by exploring for the first time the use of mixed logit models in the most recent version of the RRM approach. We further investigate two paradigm choices by computing elasticities and forecasting choice probability. We find that regret is important in describing the managers' choices. Regret increases in the shock scenario, supporting the idea that a shift in reference point can cause a shift towards regret minimisation. Differences in elasticities and forecast probability are identified and discussed appropriately. © 2013 Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited.

Despite several decades of decline, cardiovascular diseases are still the most common causes of death in Western societies. Sedentary living and high fat diets contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases. This paper analyses the trade-offs between lifestyle choices defined in terms of diet, physical activity, cost, and risk of cardiovascular disease that a representative sample of the population of Northern Ireland aged 40–65 are willing to make. Using computer assisted personal interviews, we survey 493 individuals at their homes using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) questionnaire administered between February and July 2011 in Northern Ireland. Unlike most DCE studies for valuing public health programmes, this questionnaire uses a tailored exercise, based on the individuals' baseline choices. A “fat screener” module in the questionnaire links personal cardiovascular disease risk to each specific choice set in terms of dietary constituents. Individuals are informed about their real status quo risk of a fatal cardiovascular event, based on an initial set of health questions. Thus, actual risks, real diet and exercise choices are the elements that constitute the choice task. Our results show that our respondents are willing to pay for reducing mortality risk and, more importantly, are willing to change physical exercise and dietary behaviours. In particular, we find that to improve their lifestyles, overweight and obese people would be more likely to do more physical activity than to change their diets. Therefore, public policies aimed to target obesity and its related illnesses in Northern Ireland should invest public money in promoting physical activity rather than healthier diets.

We examine the effect of energy efficiency incentives on household energy-efficiency home improvements. Starting in February 2007, Italian homeowners have been able to avail themselves of tax credits on the purchase and installation costs of certain types of energy efficiency renovations. We examine two such renovations—door/windows replacements and heating system replacements—using multi-year cross-section data from the Italian Consumer Expenditure Survey and focusing on a narrow period around the introduction of the tax credits. Our regressions control for dwelling and household characteristics and economy-wide factors likely to influence the replacement rates. The effects of the policy are different for the two types of renovations. With window replacements, the policy is generally associated with a 30% or stronger increase in the renovation rates and number of renovations. In the simplest econometric models, the effect is not statistically significant, but the results get stronger when we allow for heterogeneous effects across the country. With heating system replacements, simpler models suggest that the tax credits policy had no effect whatsoever or that free riding was rampant, i.e., people are now accepting subsidies for replacements that they would have done anyway. Further examination suggests a strong degree of heterogeneity in the effects across warmer and colder parts of the country, and effects in the colder areas that are even more pronounced than those for windows replacements. These results should, however, be interpreted with caution due to the low rate of renovations and the imprecisely estimated effects.

We examine the effect of energy efficiency incentives on household energy-efficiency home improvements. Starting in February 2007, Italian homeowners have been able to avail themselves of tax credits on the purchase and installation costs of certain types of energy efficiency renovations. We examine two such renovations - door/windows replacements and heating system replacements - using multi-year cross-section data from the Italian Consumer Expenditure Survey and focusing on a narrow period around the introduction of the tax credits. Our regressions control for dwelling and household characteristics and economy-wide factors likely to influence the replacement rates. The effects of the policy are different for the two types of renovations. With window replacements, the policy is generally associated with a 30% or stronger increase in the renovation rates and number of renovations. In the simplest econometric models, the effect is not statistically significant, but the results get stronger when we allow for heterogeneous effects across the country. With heating system replacements, simpler models suggest that the tax credits policy had no effect whatsoever or that free riding was rampant, i.e., people are now accepting subsidies for replacements that they would have done anyway. Further examination suggests a strong degree of heterogeneity in the effects across warmer and colder parts of the country, and effects in the colder areas that are even more pronounced than those for windows replacements. These results should, however, be interpreted with caution due to the low rate of renovations and the imprecisely estimated effects.

Chapters 1 and 2 set the scene for the scenarios of possible futures, presented modelling results and identified a typology of rural urban regions. The next set of chapters in Part 2 focus on the case studies and what can be learned from them. Before examining each case study it will be useful to provide an overview of the various models and tools used to simulate potential land use futures of peri-urban regions and to assess their impacts across Europe. The focus of this chapter is at two scales: the pan-European (EU27) and the regional scale, as produced by the typology in Chap. 2 and exemplified by the case studies presented in Chaps. 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9.

This paper compares the Random Regret Minimization and the Random Utility Maximization models for determining recreational choice. The Random Regret approach is based on the idea that, when choosing, individuals aim to minimize their regret – regret being defined as what one experiences when a non-chosen alternative in a choice set performs better than a chosen one in relation to one or more attributes. The Random Regret paradigm, recently developed in transport economics, presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the dominant choice paradigm based on Random Utility. Using data from a travel cost study exploring factors that influence kayakers’ site-choice decisions in the Republic of Ireland, we estimate both the traditional Random Utility multinomial logit model (RU-MNL) and the Random Regret multinomial logit model (RR-MNL) to gain more insights into site choice decisions. We further explore whether choices are driven by a utility maximization or a regret minimization paradigm by running a binary logit model to examine the likelihood of the two decision choice paradigms using site visits and respondents characteristics as explanatory variables. In addition to being one of the first studies to apply the RR-MNL to an environmental good, this paper also represents the first application of the RR-MNL to compute the Logsum to test and strengthen conclusions on welfare impacts of potential alternative policy scenarios.

This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the dominant choice-modelling paradigm based on Random Utility Maximization-theory (RUM-theory). We highlight how RRM-based models provide closed form, logit-type formulations for choice probabilities that allow for capturing semi-compensatory behaviour and choice set-composition effects while being equally parsimonious as their utilitarian counterparts. Using data from a Stated Choice-experiment aimed at identifying valuations of characteristics of nature parks, we compare RRM-based models and RUM-based models in terms of parameter estimates, goodness of fit, elasticities and consequential policy implications.