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Results are presented of export production, dissolved organic matter (DOM) and dissolved oxygen simulated by 12 global ocean models participating in the second phase of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project. A common, simple biogeochemical model is utilized in different coarse-resolution ocean circulation models. The model mean (±1σ) downward flux of organic matter across 75 m depth is 17 ± 6 Pg C yr−1. Model means of globally averaged particle export, the fraction of total export in dissolved form, surface semilabile dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and seasonal net outgassing (SNO) of oxygen are in good agreement with observation-based estimates, but particle export and surface DOC are too high in the tropics. There is a high sensitivity of the results to circulation, as evidenced by (1) the correlation of surface DOC and export with circulation metrics, including chlorofluorocarbon inventory and deep-ocean radiocarbon, (2) very large intermodel differences in Southern Ocean export, and (3) greater export production, fraction of export as DOM, and SNO in models with explicit mixed layer physics. However, deep-ocean oxygen, which varies widely among the models, is poorly correlated with other model indices. Cross-model means of several biogeochemical metrics show better agreement with observation-based estimates when restricted to those models that best simulate deep-ocean radiocarbon. Overall, the results emphasize the importance of physical processes in marine biogeochemical modeling and suggest that the development of circulation models can be accelerated by evaluating them with marine biogeochemical metrics.

The influence of phytoplankton on the seasonal cycle and the mean global climate is investigated in a fully coupled climate model. The control experiment uses a fixed attenuation depth for shortwave radiation, while the attenuation depth in the experiment with biology is derived from phytoplankton concentrations simulated with a marine biogeochemical model coupled online to the ocean model. Some of the changes in the upper ocean are similar to the results from previous studies that did not use interactive atmospheres, for example, amplification of the seasonal cycle; warming in upwelling regions, such as the equatorial Pacific and the Arabian Sea; and reduction in sea ice cover in the high latitudes. In addition, positive feedbacks within the climate system cause a global shift of the seasonal cycle. The onset of spring is about 2 weeks earlier, which results in a more realistic representation of the seasons. Feedback mechanisms, such as increased wind stress and changes in the shortwave radiation, lead to significant warming in the midlatitudes in summer and to seasonal modifications of the overall warming in the equatorial Pacific. Temperature changes also occur over land where they are sometimes even larger than over the ocean. In the equatorial Pacific, the strength of interannual SST variability is reduced by about 10%–15% and phase locking to the annual cycle is improved. The ENSO spectral peak is broader than in the experiment without biology and the dominant ENSO period is increased to around 5 yr. Also the skewness of ENSO variability is slightly improved. All of these changes lead to the conclusion that the influence of marine biology on the radiative budget of the upper ocean should be considered in detailed simulations of the earth’s climate.

Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.

Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pHand carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms such as corals and some plankton will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual$(B s(Bcenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.

A suite of standard ocean hydrographic and circulation metrics are applied to the equilibrium physical solutions from 13 global carbon models participating in phase 2 of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). Model-data comparisons are presented for sea surface temperature and salinity, seasonal mixed layer depth, meridional heat and freshwater transport, 3-D hydrographic fields, and meridional overturning. Considerable variation exists among the OCMIP-2 simulations, with some of the solutions falling noticeably outside available observational constraints. For some cases, model-model and model-data differences can be related to variations in surface forcing, subgrid-scale parameterizations, and model architecture. These errors in the physical metrics point to significant problems in the underlying model representations of ocean transport and dynamics, problems that directly affect the OCMIP predicted ocean tracer and carbon cycle variables (e.g., air-sea CO2 flux, chlorofluorocarbon and anthropogenic CO2 uptake, and export production). A substantial fraction of the large model-model ranges in OCMIP-2 biogeochemical fields (±25–40%) represents the propagation of known errors in model physics. Therefore the model-model spread likely overstates the uncertainty in our current understanding of the ocean carbon system, particularly for transport-dominated fields such as the historical uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A full error assessment, however, would need to account for additional sources of uncertainty such as more complex biological-chemical-physical interactions, biases arising from poorly resolved or neglected physical processes, and climate change.

New radiocarbon and chlorofluorocarbon-11 data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment are used to assess a suite of 19 ocean carbon cycle models. We use the distributions and inventories of these tracers as quantitative metrics of model skill and find that only about a quarter of the suite is consistent with the new data-based metrics. This should serve as a warning bell to the larger community that not all is well with current generation of ocean carbon cycle models. At the same time, this highlights the danger in simply using the available models to represent the state-of-the-art modeling without considering the credibility of each model.

We compare simulations of the injection of mantle helium-3 into the deep ocean from six global coarse resolution models which participated in the Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP). We also discuss the results of a study carried out with one of the models, which examines the effect of the subgrid-scale mixing parameterization. These sensitivity tests provide useful information to interpret the differences among the OCMIP models and between model simulations and the data. We find that the OCMIP models, which parameterize subgrid-scale mixing using an eddy-induced velocity, tend to underestimate the ventilation of the deep ocean, based on diagnostics with 3He. In these models, this parameterization is implemented with a constant thickness diffusivity coefficient. In future simulations, we recommend using such a parameterization with spatially and temporally varying coefficients in order to moderate its effect on stratification. The performance of the models with regard to the formation of AABW confirms the conclusion from a previous evaluation with CFC-11. Models coupled with a sea-ice model produce a substantial bottom water formation in the Southern Ocean that tends to overestimate AABW ventilation, while models that are not coupled with a sea-ice model systematically underestimate the formation of AABW. We also analyze specific features of the deep 3He distribution (3He plumes) that are particularly well depicted in the data and which put severe constraints on the deep circulation. We show that all the models fail to reproduce a correct propagation of these plumes in the deep ocean. The resolution of the models may be too coarse to reproduce the strong and narrow currents in the deep ocean, and the models do not incorporate the geothermal heating that may also contribute to the generation of these currents. We also use the context of OCMIP-2 to explore the potential of mantle helium-3 as a tool to compare and evaluate modeled deep-ocean circulations

A suite of standard ocean hydrographic and circulation metrics are applied to the equilibrium physical solutions from thirteen global carbon models participating in phase 2 of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). Model-data comparisons are presented for sea surface temperature and salinity, seasonal mixed layer depth, meridional heat and freshwater transport, 3-D hydrographic fields, and meridional overturning. Considerable variation exists among the OCMIP-2 simulations, with some of the solutions falling noticeably outside available observational constraints. For some cases, model-model and model-data differences can be related to variations in surface forcing, sub-grid scale parameterizations, and model architecture. These errors in the physical metrics point to significant problems in the underlying model representations of ocean transport and dynamics, problems that directly propagate into the OCMIP predicted ocean tracer and carbon cycle variables (e.g., air-sea CO2 flux; chlorofluorocarbon and anthropogenic CO2 uptake; export production). The substantial model-model ranges in OCMIP-2 biogeochemical fields (±25-40%), therefore, likely overestimate the uncertainties in ocean carbon cycle dynamics due to large-scale physical circulation.

Marine diatoms take up silicic acid for the buildup of theiropaline shells and discriminate against the heavier siliconisotopes. Rayleigh distillation in the upper mixed layer duringthe growing season increases the mean isotopic compositionof diatom shells. In principle it should be possible toreconstruct the relative utilization of silicic acid from theisotopic composition of diatom shells archived in sediments.In the real ocean, however, several other factors perturb thissimple picture. The impact of mixing, advection andremineralization on the isotopic composition of silicic acidand diatom shells have been investigated by integration andanalysis of a biogeochemical general circulation model aswell as a conceptual model. We will discuss the applicabilityof silicon isotopes in the Southern Ocean.

Marine diatoms take up silicic acid for the buildup oftheir opaline shells and discriminate against theheavier silicon isotope. For the frst time, the overalloceanic distribution of silicon isotopes has beenestimated by integration of the Hamburg Model ofthe Ocean Carbon Cycle, version 4 (HAMOCC4). Itis shown that the relationship between the silicicacid concentration and its silicon isotopecomposition is not a simple Rayleigh distillationcurve. Only the Southern Ocean and theEquatorial Pacifc show a clear functionaldependency similar to the Rayleigh distillationcurve. Model results can be used to predict opalsilicon isotope compositions in the sediment andconstrain the use of silicon isotopes as a proxyfor silicic acid utilization. Due to thestructure of the Pacific current system it might bevalid to apply a relationship between surfacesilicic acid concentrations and the silicon isotopesignal in the equatorial Pacifc sediments.

We compared the 13 models participating in the Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP) with regards to their skill in matching observed distributions of CFC-11. This analysis characterizes the abilities of these models to ventilate the ocean on timescales relevant for anthropogenic CO2 uptake. We found a large range in the modeled global inventory (±30%), mainly due to differences in ventilation from the high latitudes. In the Southern Ocean, models differ particularly in the longitudinal distribution of the CFC uptake in the intermediate water, whereas the latitudinal distribution is mainly controlled by the subgrid-scale parameterization. Models with isopycnal diffusion and eddy-induced velocity parameterization produce more realistic intermediate water ventilation. Deep and bottom water ventilation also varies substantially between the models. Models coupled to a sea-ice model systematically provide more realistic AABW formation source region; however these same models also largely overestimate AABW ventilation if no specific parameterization of brine rejection during sea-ice formation is included. In the North Pacific Ocean, all models exhibit a systematic large underestimation of the CFC uptake in the thermocline of the subtropical gyre, while no systematic difference toward the observations is found in the subpolar gyre. In the North Atlantic Ocean, the CFC uptake is globally underestimated in subsurface. In the deep ocean, all but the adjoint model, failed to produce the two recently ventilated branches observed in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Furthermore, simulated transport in the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) is too sluggish in all but the isopycnal model, where it is too rapid.