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Introduction: The Traumatic Brain Injury - Patient Reported Outcome (TBI-PRO) model was previously derived to predict long-term patient satisfaction as assessed by the Quality of Life After Brain Injury (QOLIBRI) score. The aim of this study is to externally and prospectively validate the TBI-PRO model to predict long-term patient-reported outcomes and to derive a new model using a larger dataset of older adults with TBI., Methods: Patients admitted to a Level I trauma center with TBI were prospectively followed for 1 y after injury. Outcomes predicted by the TBI-PRO model based on admission findings were compared to actual QOLIBRI scores reported by patients at 3,6, and 12 mo. When deriving a new model, Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in TBI and the Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury databases were used to identify older adults (≥50 y) with TBI from 2014 to 2018. Bayesian additive regression trees were used to identify predictive admission covariates. The coefficient of determination was used to identify the fitness of the model., Results: For prospective validation, a total of 140 patients were assessed at 3 mo, with follow-up from 69 patients at 6 mo and 13 patients at 12 mo postinjury. The area under receiver operating curve of the TBI-PRO model for predicting favorable outcomes at 3, 6, and 12 mo were 0.65, 0.57, and 0.62, respectively. When attempting to derive a novel predictive model, a total of 1521 patients (80%) was used in the derivation dataset while 384 (20%) were used in the validation dataset. A past medical history of heart conditions, initial hospital length of stay, admission systolic blood pressure, age, number of reactive pupils on admission, and the need for craniectomy were most predictive of long-term QOLIBRI-Overall Scale. The coefficient of determination for the validation model including only the most predictive variables were 0.28, 0.19, and 0.27 at 3, 6, and 12 mo, respectively., Conclusions: In the present study, the prospective validation of a previously derived TBI-PRO model failed to accurately predict a long-term patient reported outcome measures in TBI. Additionally, the derivation of a novel model in older adults using a larger database showed poor accuracy in predicting long-term health-related quality of life. This study demonstrates limitations to current targeted approaches in TBI care. This study provides a framework for future studies and more targeted datasets looking to assess long-term quality of life based upon early hospital variables and can serve as a starting point for future predictive analysis., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Retained hemothorax (HTX) is a common complication following thoracic trauma. Small studies demonstrate the benefit of thoracic cavity irrigation at the time of tube thoracostomy (TT) for the prevention of retained HTX. We sought to assess the effectiveness of chest irrigation in preventing retained HTX leading to a secondary surgical intervention., Methods: We performed a single-center retrospective study from 2017 to 2021 at a Level I trauma center, comparing bedside thoracic cavity irrigation via TT versus no irrigation. Using the trauma registry, patients with traumatic HTX were identified. Exclusion criteria were TT placement at an outside hospital, no TT within 24 hours of admission, thoracotomy or video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) prior to or within 6 hours after TT placement, VATS as part of rib fixation or diaphragmatic repair, and death within 96 hours of admission. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were conducted., Results: A total of 370 patients met the inclusion criteria, of whom 225 (61%) were irrigated. Patients who were irrigated were more likely to suffer a penetrating injury (41% vs. 30%, p = 0.03) and less likely to have a flail chest (10% vs. 21%, p = 0.01). On bivariate analysis, irrigation was associated with lower rates of VATS (6% vs. 19%, p < 0.001) and retained HTX (10% vs. 21%, p < 0.001). The irrigated cohort had a shorter TT duration (4 vs. 6 days, p < 0.001) and hospital length of stay (7 vs. 9 days, p = 0.04). On multivariable analysis, thoracic cavity irrigation had lower odds of VATS (adjusted odds ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30-0.54), retained HTX (adjusted odds ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.25-0.74), and a shorter TT duration ( β = -1.58; 95% CI, -2.52 to -0.75)., Conclusion: Our 5-year experience with thoracic irrigation confirms findings from smaller studies that irrigation prevents retained HTX and decreases the need for surgical intervention., Level of Evidence: Therapeutic/Care Management; Level III., (Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Delays in initiating venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis in patients suffering from traumatic brain injury (TBI) persist despite guidelines recommending early initiation. We hypothesized that the expansion of a Trauma Program Performance Improvement (PI) team will improve compliance of early (24-48 hours) initiation of VTE prophylaxis and will decrease VTE events in TBI patients., Methods: We performed a single-center retrospective review of all TBI patients admitted to a Level I trauma center before (2015-2016,) and after (2019-2020,) the expansion of the Trauma Performance Improvement and Patient Safety (PIPS) team and the creation of trauma process and outcome dashboards. Exclusion criteria included discharge or death within 48 hours of admission, expanding intracranial hemorrhage on CT scan, and a neurosurgical intervention (craniotomy, pressure monitor, or drains) prior to chemoprophylaxis initiation., Results: A total of 1,112 patients met the inclusion criteria, of which 54% (n = 604) were admitted after Trauma PIPS expansion. Following the addition of a dedicated PIPS nurse in the trauma program and creation of process dashboards, the time from stable CT to VTE prophylaxis initiation decreased (52 hours to 35 hours; p < 0.001) and more patients received chemoprophylaxis at 24 hours to 48 hours (59% from 36%, p < 0.001) after stable head CT. There was no significant difference in time from first head CT to stable CT (9 vs. 9 hours; p = 0.15). The Contemporary group had a lower rate of VTE events (1% vs. 4%; p < 0.001) with no increase in bleeding events (2% vs. 2%; p = 0.97). On multivariable analysis, being in the Early cohort was an independent predictor of VTE events (adjusted odds ratio, 3.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-6.16)., Conclusion: A collaborative multidisciplinary Trauma PIPS team improves guideline compliance. Initiation of VTE chemoprophylaxis within 24 hours to 48 hours of stable head CT is safe and effective., Level of Evidence: Therapeutic/Care Management; Level IV., (Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Tiered trauma team activation (TTA) allows systems to optimally allocate resources to an injured patient. Target undertriage and overtriage rates of <5% and <35% are difficult for centers to achieve, and performance variability exists. The objective of this study was to optimize and externally validate a previously developed hospital trauma triage prediction model to predict the need for emergent intervention in 6 hours (NEI-6), an indicator of need for a full TTA., Methods: The model was previously developed and internally validated using data from 31 US trauma centers. Data were collected prospectively at five sites using a mobile application which hosted the NEI-6 model. A weighted multiple logistic regression model was used to retrain and optimize the model using the original data set and a portion of data from one of the prospective sites. The remaining data from the five sites were designated for external validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) were used to assess the validation cohort. Subanalyses were performed for age, race, and mechanism of injury., Results: 14 421 patients were included in the training data set and 2476 patients in the external validation data set across five sites. On validation, the model had an overall undertriage rate of 9.1% and overtriage rate of 53.7%, with an AUROC of 0.80 and an AUPRC of 0.63. Blunt injury had an undertriage rate of 8.8%, whereas penetrating injury had 31.2%. For those aged ≥65, the undertriage rate was 8.4%, and for Black or African American patients the undertriage rate was 7.7%., Conclusion: The optimized and externally validated NEI-6 model approaches the recommended undertriage and overtriage rates while significantly reducing variability of TTA across centers for blunt trauma patients. The model performs well for populations that traditionally have high rates of undertriage., Level of Evidence: 2., Competing Interests: Competing interests: RM and CT have a patent for the NEI-6 predictive model. RM and CT are founders of Advanced Trauma Analytics. MH receives support from Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan and grant funding from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services for administration of the Michigan Trauma Quality Improvement Program., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Traumatic brain injury patients who require neurosurgical intervention are at the highest risk of worsening intracranial hemorrhage. This subgroup of patients has frequently been excluded from prior research regarding the timing of venous thromboembolism chemoprophylaxis. This study aims to assess the efficacy and safety of early venous thromboembolism chemoprophylaxis in patients with traumatic brain injuries requiring neurosurgical interventions., Methods: This is a single-center retrospective review (2016-2020) of traumatic brain injury patients requiring neurosurgical intervention admitted to a level I trauma center. Interventions included intracranial pressure monitoring, subdural drain, external ventricular drain, craniotomy, and craniectomy. Exclusion criteria included neurosurgical intervention after chemoprophylaxis initiation, death within 5 days of admission, and absence of chemoprophylaxis. The total population was stratified into Early (≤72 hours of intervention) versus Late (>72 hours after intervention) chemoprophylaxis initiation., Results: A total of 351 patients met the inclusion criteria, of whom 204 (58%) had early chemoprophylaxis initiation. Overall, there were no significant differences in baseline and admission characteristics between cohorts. The Early chemoprophylaxis cohort had a statistically significant lower venous thromboembolism rate (5% vs 13%, P < .001) with no increased risk of worsening intracranial hemorrhage (10% vs 13%, P = .44) or neurosurgical reintervention (8% vs 10%, P = .7). On subgroup analysis, a total of 169 patients required either a craniotomy or a craniectomy before chemoprophylaxis. The Early chemoprophylaxis cohort had statistically significant lower venous thromboembolism rates (2% vs 11%, P < .001) with no increase in intracranial hemorrhage (8% vs 11%, P = .6) or repeat neurosurgical intervention (8% vs 10%, P = .77)., Conclusion: Venous thromboembolism prophylaxis initiation within 72 hours of neurosurgical intervention is safe and effective. Further prospective research is warranted to validate the results of this study., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Understanding the expectations of early career acute care surgeons will help clarify the practice and employment models that will attract and retain high-quality surgeons, thereby sustaining our workforce. This study aimed to outline the clinical and academic preferences and priorities of early career acute care surgeons and to better define full-time employment., Methods: A survey on clinical responsibilities, employment preferences, work priorities, and compensation was distributed to early career acute care surgeons in the first 5 years of practice. A subset of agreeable respondents underwent virtual semistructured interviews. Both quantitative and thematic analysis were used to describe current responsibilities, expectations, and perspectives., Results: Of 471 surgeons, 167 responded (35%), the majority of whom were assistant professors within the first 3 years of practice (80%). The median desired clinical volume was 24 clinical weeks and 48 call shifts per year, 4 weeks less than their median current clinical volume. Most respondents (61%) preferred a service-based model. The top priorities cited in choosing a job were geography, work schedule, and compensation. Qualitative interviews identified themes related to defining full-time employment, first job expectations and realities, and the often-misaligned system and surgeon., Conclusion: Understanding the perspectives of early career surgeons entering the workforce is important particularly in the field of acute care surgery where no standard workload or practice model exists. The wide variety of expectations, practice models, and schedule preferences may lead to a mismatch between surgeon desires and employment expectation. Consistent employment standards across our specialty would provide a framework for sustainability., Level of Evidence: Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level III., (Copyright © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: The decision to withdraw life sustaining treatment (WDLST) in older adults with traumatic brain injury is subject to wide variability leading to nonbeneficial interventions and unnecessary use of hospital resources. We hypothesized that patient and hospital factors are associated with WDLST and WDLST timing., Methods: All traumatic brain injury patients ≥65 with Glasgow coma scores (GCS) of 4-11 from 2018 to 2019 at level I and II centers were selected from the National Trauma Data Bank. Patients with head abbreviated injury scores 5-6 or death within 24 h were excluded. Bayesian additive regression tree analysis was performed to identify the cumulative incidence function (CIF) and the relative risks (RR) over time for withdrawal of care, discharge to hospice (DH), and death. Death alone (no WDLST or DH) served as the comparator group for all analyses. A subanalysis of the composite outcome WDLST/DH (defined as end-of-life-care), with death (no WDLST or DH) as a comparator cohort was performed., Results: We included 2126 patients, of whom 1957 (57%) underwent WDLST, 402 (19%) died, and 469 (22%) were DH. 60% of patients were male, and the mean age was 80 y. The majority of patients were injured by fall (76%, n = 1644). Patients who were DH were more often female (51% DH versus 39% WDLST), had a past medical history of dementia (45% DH versus 18% WDLST), and had lower admission injury severity score (14 DH versus 18.6 WDLST) (P < 0.001). Compared to those who DH, those who underwent WDLST had a lower GCS (9.8 versus 8.4, P < 0.001). CIF of WDSLT and DH increased with age, stabilizing by day 3. At day 3, patients ≥90 y had an increased RR of DH compared to WDLST (RR 2.5 versus 1.4). As GCS increased, CIF and RR of WDLST decreased, while CIF and RR of DH increased (RR on day 3 for GCS 12: WDLST 0.42 versus DH 1.31).Patients at nonprofit institutions were more likely to undergo WDLST (RR 1.15) compared to DH (0.68). Compared to patients of White race, patients of Black race had a lower RR of WDLST at all timepoints., Conclusions: Patient and hospital factors influence the practice of end-of-life-care (WDLST, DH, and death), highlighting the need to better understand variability to target palliative care interventions and standardize care across populations and trauma centers., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: The American College of Surgeons (ACS) delineates trauma team activation (TTA) criteria to identify seriously injured trauma patients in the field. Patients are deemed to be severely undertriaged (SU), placing them at risk for adverse outcomes, when they do not meet TTA criteria but nonetheless sustain significant injuries (Injury Severity Score [ISS] ≥25)., Objectives: Delineate patient demographics, injuries, and outcomes after SU., Participants: Trauma patients presenting to our ACS-verified Level 1 trauma center with ISS ≥25 were included (11/2015-03/2022). Transfers and private vehicle transports were excluded. Patients were dichotomized and compared by trauma arrival level: TTA (Appropriately Triaged, AT) vs routine consults (SU)., Results: Study criteria were satisfied by 1653 patients: 1375 (83%) AT and 278 (17%) SU. Severely undertriaged patients were older than AT patients (47 vs 36 years, P < .001). Severely undertriaged occurred almost exclusively following blunt trauma (96% vs 71%, P < .001). Injury Severity Score was lower following SU than AT (29 vs 32, P < .001). The most common severe injuries (Abbreviated Injury Scale score [AIS] ≥3) among the SU group were in the Chest (n = 179, 64%). Severely undertriaged patients necessitated emergent intubation (n = 34, 12%), surgery (n = 59, 21%), and angioembolization (n = 22, 8%) at high rates. Severely undertriaged mortality was n = 40, 14%., Conclusion: Severely undertriaged occurred among a substantial proportion of ISS ≥25 patients, predominately following blunt trauma. Severe chest injuries were most likely to evade capture. Rates of intubation, emergent intervention, and in-hospital mortality were high after SU. Efforts should be made to identify such patients in the field as they may benefit from TTA., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting InterestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Background: Rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE) remain high in emergency general surgery (EGS) patients despite chemical VTE prophylaxis. Emerging literature supports anti-factor Xa (AFXa) monitoring for patients on enoxaparin (LMWH), although a significant knowledge gap remains regarding the optimal dosing and monitoring in EGS patients. We hypothesize that standard dose VTE prophylaxis regimens provide inadequate VTE prophylaxis in EGS patients., Study Design: A prospective cohort study of all adult EGS patients at a single institution between August 2021 and February 2022 receiving standard dose LMWH for VTE prophylaxis was performed. AFXa levels were obtained 4 hours after the third dose of enoxaparin with a target range of 0.3 to 0.5 IU/mL. Adjustment to dosing and repeat AFXa measurement after the adjusted third dose was obtained., Results: A total of 81 patients underwent AFXa monitoring, the majority (75%) of whom were started on 40 mg LMWH daily. Initial peak AFXa measurement was low in 87.7% of patients (mean 0.16 IU/mL). Of patients who had an initial low AFXa, remained admitted, and underwent dosing adjustment and AFXa reassessment (27%), the majority were adjusted to either 30 or 40 mg of LMWH twice daily (23.7% and 55%, respectively), with 82% of patients remaining low. There were no significant differences in demographics or BMI between those with low vs adequate AFXa levels at either initial or subsequent measurement., Conclusions: Standard LMWH dosing provides inadequate AFXa inhibition for adequate VTE prophylaxis. These findings highlight the importance of ongoing AFXa monitoring and the need to establish clinical protocols to improve VTE prophylaxis in EGS patients., (Copyright © 2023 by the American College of Surgeons. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Patients undergoing surgical procedures are at an increased risk of venous thromboembolism events. A fixed Enoxaparin dosing regimen is the standard of care for chemoprophylaxis in most institutions; however, breakthrough venous thromboembolism events are still reported. We aimed to systematically review the literature to determine the ability of various Enoxaparin dosing regimens to achieve adequate prophylactic anti-Xa levels for venous thromboembolism prevention in hospitalized general surgery patients. Additionally, we aimed to assess the correlation between subprophylactic anti-Xa levels and the development of clinically significant venous thromboembolism events., Methods: A systematic review was conducted using major databases from January 1, 1993, to February 17, 2023. Two independent researchers screened titles and abstracts, followed by a full-text review. Articles were included if Enoxaparin dosing regimens were evaluated by anti-Xa levels. Exclusion criteria included systematic reviews, pediatric population, nongeneral surgery (defined as trauma, orthopedics, plastics, and neurosurgery), and non-Enoxaparin chemoprophylaxis. The primary outcome was peak Anti-Xa level measured at steady state concentration. The risk of bias was assessed using the Risk of Bias in Nonrandomized studies-of Intervention tool., Results: A total of 6,760 articles were extracted, of which 19 were included in the scoping review. Nine studies included bariatric patients, whereas 5 studies explored abdominal surgical oncology patients. Three studies assessed thoracic surgery patients, and 2 studies included patients undergoing "general surgery" procedures. A total of 1,502 patients were included. The mean age was 47 years, and 38% were males. The percentages of patients reaching adequate prophylactic anti-Xa levels were 39%, 61%, 15%, 50%, and 78% across the 40 mg daily, 40 mg twice daily, 30 mg twice daily, and weight-tiered, and body mass index-based groups, respectively. The overall risk of bias was low to moderate., Conclusion: Fixed Enoxaparin dosing regimens are not correlated with adequate anti-Xa levels in general surgery patients. Additional research is warranted to assess the efficacy of dosing regimens based on novel physiologic parameters (such as estimated blood volume)., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Estimation of long-term quality of life in patients sustaining Traumatic brain injuries is a difficult but important task during the early hospitalization. There are very limited tools to assess these outcomes, therefore we aimed to develop a predictive model for quality-of-life that could be used in hospitalized adults with TBIs., Methods: The TRACK-TBI dataset was used to identify adult patients with TBI from 2014 to 2018. Multiple variables were assessed to predict favorable versus unfavorable scores on the Quality of Life after Brain Injury-Overall Scale (QOLIBRI-OS)., Results: We included 1549 subjects. 57% had a favorable outcome, and were more likely to have private insurance, higher GCS scores, and fewer comorbidities. A model (TBI-PRO) for 3, 6, and 12-month QOLIBRI score was created. The AUROCs for predicting 3, 6 and 12-month favorable QOLIBRI scores were 0.81, 0.79, and 0.76, respectively., Conclusion: The TBI-PRO model adequately estimates long-term outcomes in patients with TBI., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Malnutrition is associated with increased morbidity and mortality after trauma. The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) is a validated scoring system used to predict the risk of complications related to malnutrition in nontrauma patients. We hypothesized that GNRI is predictive of worse outcomes in geriatric trauma patients., Methods: This was a single-center retrospective study of trauma patients 65 years or older admitted in 2019. Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index was calculated based on admission albumin level and ratio of actual body weight to ideal body weight. Groups were defined as major risk (GNRI <82), moderate risk (GNRI 82-91), low risk (GNRI 92-98), and no risk (GNRI >98). The primary outcome was mortality. Secondary outcomes included ventilator days, intensive care unit length of stay (LOS), hospital LOS, discharge home, sepsis, pneumonia, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the association between GNRI risk category and outcomes., Results: A total of 513 patients were identified for analysis. Median age was 78 years (71-86 years); 24 patients (4.7%) were identified as major risk, 66 (12.9%) as moderate risk, 72 (14%) as low risk, and 351 (68.4%) as no risk. Injury Severity Scores and Charlson Comorbidity Indexes were similar between all groups. Patients in the no risk group had decreased rates of death, and after adjusting for Injury Severity Score, age, and Charlson Comorbidity Index, the no risk group had decreased odds of death (odds ratio, 0.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.41) compared with the major risk group. The no risk group also had fewer infectious complications including sepsis and pneumonia, and shorter hospital LOS and were more likely to be discharged home., Conclusions: Major GNRI risk is associated with increased mortality and infectious complications in geriatric trauma patients. Further studies should target interventional strategies for those at highest risk based on GNRI., Level of Evidence: Prognostic and Epidemiologic; Level III., (Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Axial imaging has allowed for more precise measurement and, in-turn, more objective guidelines related to the management of traumatic pneumothoraces (PTXs). In 2017, our trauma center used a guideline to observe any PTX ≤35 mm in stable patients. We hypothesize that this guideline would decrease unnecessary chest tubes without affecting failure rates., Methods: This is a single-center retrospective review of all adult trauma patients who had a PTX diagnosed on computed tomography before (2015-2016) and after (2018-2019) guideline implementation. We excluded patients with chest tubes inserted before computed tomography, concurrent hemothoraces, mechanical ventilation, or mortality in the first 24 hours. Descriptive statistical analyses, χ2 test, and Mann-Whitney U test were performed as appropriate., Results: A total of 266 patients met our inclusion criteria. Ninety-nine (37.2%) and 167 patients (62.7%) were admitted before and after 2017, respectively. Overall, there were no differences in demographics or severity of injuries between both groups. After guideline implementation, there was a significant increase in observation rates and compliance rate. Tube thoracostomies decreased from 28.3% to 18% (p = 0.04). There were no statistically significant changes in observation failure rates, hospital or intensive care unit length of stay, complications, or mortality., Conclusion: The implementation of the 35 mm guideline is an effective tool to decrease unnecessary tube thoracostomy in hemodynamically normal patients without evidence of hemothorax., Level of Evidence: Therapeutic/care management, level III., (Copyright © 2022 American Association for the Surgery of Trauma.)

Background: Trauma and acute care surgery (ACS) staffing models vary widely across the United States, resulting in large discrepancies in staffing, compensation, schedule, and clinical/nonclinical expectations. An urgent need exists to define clinical, academic, and schedule expectations for a full-time employment (FTE) of a trauma and ACS surgeon in the United States., Methods: A survey was distributed to departmental leaders at Levels I, II, III trauma centers across the United States regarding current workload. Variables concerning the responsibilities of surgeons, compensation models, and clinical expectations were collected. This was followed by virtual semistructured interviews of agreeable respondents. A thematic analysis was used to describe current staffing challenges and "ideal" staffing and compensation models of trauma centers., Results: Sixty-eight of 483 division chiefs/medical directors responded (14%), the majority (66%) representing Level I centers. There were differences in clinical responsibilities, elective surgery coverage as well as number of and reimbursement for call. The median description of an FTE was 26 weeks (interquartile range, 13 weeks) with a median of 8 (interquartile range, 8) 12-hour call shifts per month. Level III centers were more likely to perform elective surgery and covered more call shifts, typically from home. In our qualitative interviews, we identified numerous themes, including inconsistent models and staffing of services, surgeon-administration conflict and elective surgery driven by productivity and desire., Conclusion: Defining the workload of a full-time trauma and ACS surgeon is nuanced and requires consideration of local volume, acuity and culture. Between the quantitative and qualitative analysis, a reasonable workload for a 1.0 FTE acute care surgeon at a Level I center is 24 to 28 service weeks per year and four to five in-house calls per month. Nighttime and daytime staffing needs can be divergent and may lead to conflict with administration. Future research should consider the individual surgeon's perspective on the definition of an FTE., Level of Evidence: Prognostic and epidemiological, Level III., (Copyright © 2021 American Association for the Surgery of Trauma.)

Background: Nonoperative management of adhesive small bowel obstruction (SBO) is successful in up to 80% of patients. Current recommendations advocate for computed tomography (CT) scan in all patients with SBO to supplement surgical decision-making. The hypothesis of this study was that cumulative findings on CT would predict the need for operative intervention in the setting of SBO., Methods: This is an analysis of a retrospectively and prospectively collected adhesive SBO database over a 6-year period. A Bowel Ischemia Score (BIS) was developed based on the Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma guidelines of CT findings suggestive of bowel ischemia. One point was assigned for each of the six variables. Early operation was defined as surgery within 6 hours of CT scan., Results: Of the 275 patients in the database, 249 (90.5%) underwent CT scan. The operative rate was 28.3% with a median time from CT to operation of 21 hours (Interquartile range 5.2-59.2 hours). Most patients (166/217, 76.4%) with a BIS of 0 or 1 were successfully managed nonoperatively, whereas the majority of those with a BIS of 3 required operative intervention (5/6, 83.3%). The discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of BIS for early surgery, any operative intervention, and small bowel resection were 0.83, 0.72, and 0.61, respectively., Conclusion: The cumulative signs of bowel ischemia on CT scan represented by BIS, rather than the presence or absence of any one finding, correlate with the need for early operative intervention.

Background: The ability to reliably predict outcomes after trauma in older adults (age ≥ 65 y) is critical for clinical decision making. Using novel machine-learning techniques, we sought to design a nonlinear, competing risks paradigm for prediction of older adult discharge disposition following injury., Materials and Methods: The National Trauma Databank (NTDB) was used to identify patients 65+ y between 2007 and 2014. Training was performed on an enriched cohort of diverse patients. Factors included age, comorbidities, length of stay, and physiologic parameters to predict in-hospital mortality and discharge disposition (home versus skilled nursing/long-term care facility). Length of stay and discharge status were analyzed via competing risks survival analysis with Bayesian additive regression trees and a multinomial mixed model., Results: The resulting sample size was 47,037 patients. Admission GCS and age were important in predicting mortality and discharge disposition. As GCS decreased, patients were more likely to die (risk ratio increased by average of 1.4 per 2-point drop in GCS, P < 0.001). As GCS decreased, patients were also more likely to be discharged to a skilled nursing or long-term care facility (risk ratio decreased by 0.08 per 2-point decrease in GCS, P< 0.001). The area under curve for prediction of discharge home was improved in the competing risks model 0.73 versus 0.43 in the traditional multinomial mixed model., Conclusions: Predicting older adult discharge disposition after trauma is improved using machine learning over traditional regression analysis. We confirmed that a nonlinear, competing risks paradigm enhances prediction on any given hospital day post injury., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Several reports claim that the purported similarity between syncytin-1 and the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein may induce immune cross-reactivity resulting in female sterility. We used frozen embryo transfer as a model for comparing the implantation rates between SARS-CoV-2 vaccine seropositive, infection seropositive, and seronegative women. No difference was found in serum hCG documented implantation rates or sustained implantation rates between the three groups. Reports claiming that COVID-19 vaccines or illness cause female sterility are unfounded., (© 2021 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

Abstract: Despite major improvements in the United States trauma system over the past two decades, prehospital trauma triage is a significant challenge. Undertriage is associated with increased mortality, and overtriage results in significant resource overuse. The American College of Surgeons Committee on Trauma benchmarks for undertriage and overtriage are not being met. Many barriers to appropriate field triage exist, including lack of a formal definition for major trauma, absence of a simple and widely applicable triage mode, and emergency medical service adherence to triage protocols. Modern trauma triage systems should ideally be based on the need for intervention rather than injury severity. Future studies should focus on identifying the ideal definition for major trauma and creating triage models that can be easily deployed. This narrative review article presents challenges and potential solutions for prehospital trauma triage., (Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

In this commentary, we shed light on the role of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) pathway in viral infections. The mTOR pathway has been demonstrated to be modulated in numerous RNA viruses. Frequently, inhibiting mTOR results in suppression of virus growth and replication. Recent evidence points towards modulation of mTOR in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We discuss the current literature on mTOR in SARS-CoV-2 and highlight evidence in support of a role for mTOR inhibitors in the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019., (© 2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Background: A tiered trauma team activation (TTA) system aims to allocate resources proportional to the patient's need based upon injury burden. The current metrics used to evaluate appropriateness of TTA are the trauma triage matrix (TTM), need for trauma intervention (NFTI), and secondary triage assessment tool (STAT)., Materials and Methods: In this retrospective study, we compared the effectiveness of the need for an emergent intervention within 6 h (NEI-6) with existing definitions. Data from the Michigan Trauma Quality Improvement Program was utilized. The dataset contains information from 31 level 1 and 2 trauma centers from 2011 to 2017. Inclusion criteria were: adult patients (≥16 y) and ISS ≥5., Results: 73,818 patients were included in the study. Thirty percentage of trauma patients met criteria for STAT, 21% for NFTI, 20% for TTM, and 13% for NEI-6. NEI-6 was associated with the lowest rate of undertriage at 6.5% (STAT 22.3%, NFTI 14.0%, TTM 14.3%). NEI-6 best predicted undertriage mortality, early mortality, in-hospital mortality, and late (>60 h) mortality. Most patients who met criteria for TTM (58%), NFTI (51%), and STAT (62%) did not require emergent intervention. All four methods had similar rates of early mortality for patients who did not meet criteria (0.3%-0.5%)., Conclusions: NEI-6 performs better than TTM, NFTI, and STAT in terms of undertriage, mortality and need for resource utilization. Other methods resulted in significantly more full TTAs than NEI-6 without identifying patients at risk for early mortality. NEI-6 represents a novel tool to determine trauma activation appropriateness., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Rabies is endemic in southern Bhutan, associated with 1-2 human deaths and high post exposure prophylaxis (PEP) costs annually. Evaluation of clinicians' management of human cases potentially exposed to rabies could contribute to improving PEP prescribing practices to both reduce unnecessary costs associated with PEP and reach the target of zero human deaths due to rabies by 2023., Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 50 clinicians' management of human cases potentially exposed to rabies was conducted in 13 health centers in high-rabies-risk areas of Bhutan during February-March 2016., Results: Data were collected on clinicians' management of 273 human cases potentially exposed to rabies. The 50 clinicians comprised health assistants or clinical officers (55%) and medical doctors (45%) with a respective median of 19, 21 and 2 years' experience. There was poor agreement between clinicians' rabies risk assessment compared with an independent assessment for each case based on criteria in the National Rabies Management Guidelines (NRMG). Of the 194 cases for which clinicians recorded a rabies risk category, only 53% were correctly classified when compared with the NRMG. Clinicians were more likely to underestimate the risk of exposure to rabies and appeared to prescribe PEP independently of their risk classification.. Male health assistants performed the most accurate risk assessments while female health assistants performed the least accurate. Clinicians in Basic Health Units performed less accurate risk assessments compared with those in hospitals., Conclusions: This study highlights important discrepancies between clinicians' management of human cases potentially exposed to rabies and recommendations in the NRMG. In particular, clinicians were not accurately assessing rabies risk in potentially exposed cases and were not basing their PEP treatment on the basis of their risk assessment. This has significant implications for achieving the national goal of eliminating dog-mediated human rabies by 2030 and may result in unnecessary costs associated with PEP. Recommendations to improve clinician's management of human cases potentially exposed to rabies include: reviewing and updating the NRMG, providing clinicians with regular and appropriately targeted training about rabies risk assessment and PEP prescription, and regularly reviewing clinicians' practices.

Introduction: Elderly trauma patients are at high risk for mortality, even when presenting with minor injuries. Previous prognostic models are poorly used because of their reliance on elements unavailable during the index hospitalization. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive algorithm to accurately estimate in-hospital mortality using easily available metrics., Methods: The National Trauma Databank was used to identify patients 65 years and older. Data were split into derivation (2007-2013) and validation (2014-2015) data sets. There was no overlap between data sets. Factors included age, comorbidities, physiologic parameters, and injury types. A two-tiered scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality was developed: a quick elderly mortality after trauma (qEMAT) score for use at initial patient presentation and a full EMAT (fEMAT) score for use after radiologic evaluation. The final model (stepwise forward selection, p < 0.05) was chosen based on calibration and discrimination analysis. Calibration (Brier score) and discrimination (area under the receiving operating characteristic curve [AuROC]) were evaluated. Because National Trauma Databank did not include blood product transfusion, an element of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), a regional trauma registry was used to compare qEMAT versus GTOS. A mobile-based application is currently available for cost-free utilization., Results: A total of 840,294 patients were included in the derivation data set and 427,358 patients in the validation data set. The fEMAT score (median, 91; S.D., 82-102) included 26 factors, and the qEMAT score included eight factors. The AuROC was 0.86 for fEMAT (Brier, 0.04) and 0.84 for qEMAT. The fEMAT outperformed other trauma mortality prediction models (e.g., Trauma and Injury Severity Score-Penetrating and Trauma and Injury Severity Score-Blunt, age + Injury Severity Score). The qEMAT outperformed the GTOS (AuROC, 0.87 vs. 0.83)., Conclusion: The qEMAT and fEMAT accurately estimate the probability of in-hospital mortality and can be easily calculated on admission. This information could aid in deciding transfer to tertiary referral center, patient/family counseling, and palliative care utilization., Level of Evidence: Epidemiological Study, level IV.

Introduction: This study aimed to test the accuracy of the 3-dimensional (3D) digital dental models generated by the Dental Monitoring (DM) smartphone application in both photograph and video modes over successive DM examinations in comparison with 3D digital dental models generated by the iTero Element intraoral scanner., Methods: Ten typodonts with setups of class I malocclusion and comparable severity of anterior crowding were used in the study. iTero Element scans along with DM examination in photograph and video modes were performed before tooth movement and after each set of 10 Invisalign aligners for each typodont. Stereolithography (STL) files generated from the DM examinations in photograph and video modes were superimposed with the STL files from the iTero scans using GOM Inspect software to determine the accuracy of both photograph and video modes of DM technology., Results: No clinically significant differences, according to the American Board of Orthodontics-determined standards, were found. Mean global deviations for the maxillary arch ranged from 0.00149 to 0.02756 mm in photograph mode and from 0.0148 to 0.0256 mm in video mode. Mean global deviations for the mandibular arch ranged from 0.0164 to 0.0275 mm in photograph mode and from 0.0150 to 0.0264 mm in video mode. Statistically significant differences were found between the 3D models generated by the iTero and the DM application in photograph and video modes over successive DM examinations., Conclusions: 3D digital dental models generated by the DM smartphone application in photograph and video modes are accurate enough to be used for clinical applications., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

In this survey study, the networks among poultry farms and related poultry enterprises in two counties in China (Feixi County in Anhui Province and Beizhen city in Liaoning Province) were analysed and evaluated focusing on the connectivity of contacts, movements, and potential pathogen transmission. The Feixi County poultry production network exhibited greater connectivity, which incorporated approximately 94% of the farms interviewed in a major component (a set of connected farms not linked with each other), mainly due to linkages of backyard farms through local produce stores and individual agents, whilst the Beizhen City network was more fragmented owing to independent in-house operations (from breed, raise, to slaughter and process) of a few large companies, with multiple smaller components. A range of factors influencing the contacts/movements among farms (act as bridges) were identified in this study. Ability to predict the pathway with the network characteristics on the basis of the factors, such as entity type and geographic location, is useful for developing risk-based approaches for disease prevention, surveillance, early detection, and effective controlling., (© 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)

Rodents are well-known reservoirs and vectors of many emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, but little is known about their role in zoonotic disease transmission in Bhutan. In this study, a cross-sectional investigation of zoonotic disease pathogens in rodents was performed in Chukha district, Bhutan, where a high incidence of scrub typhus and cases of acute undifferentiated febrile illness had been reported in people during the preceding 4-6 months. Twelve rodents were trapped alive using wire-mesh traps. Following euthanasia, liver and kidney tissues were removed and tested using PCR for Orientia tsutsugamushi and other bacterial and rickettsial pathogens causing bartonellosis, borreliosis, human monocytic ehrlichiosis, human granulocytic anaplasmosis, leptospirosis, and rickettsiosis. A phylogenetic analysis was performed on all rodent species captured and pathogens detected. Four out of the 12 rodents (33.3%) tested positive by PCR for zoonotic pathogens. Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Bartonella grahamii, and B. queenslandensis were identified for the first time in Bhutan. Leptospira interrogans was also detected for the first time from rodents in Bhutan. The findings demonstrate the presence of these zoonotic pathogens in rodents in Bhutan, which may pose a risk of disease transmission to humans.

Modern ischaemic stroke management involves intravenous thrombolysis followed by mechanical thrombectomy, which allows markedly higher rates of recanalization and penumbral salvage than thrombolysis alone. However, <50% of treated patients eventually enjoy independent life. It is therefore important to identify complementary therapeutic targets. In rodent models, the salvaged penumbra is consistently affected by selective neuronal loss, which may hinder recovery by interfering with plastic processes, as well as by microglial activation, which may exacerbate neuronal death. However, whether the salvaged penumbra in man is similarly affected is still unclear. Here we determined whether these two processes affect the non-infarcted penumbra in man and, if so, whether they are inter-related. We prospectively recruited patients with (i) acute middle-cerebral artery stroke; (ii) penumbra present on CT perfusion obtained <4.5 h of stroke onset; and (iii) early neurological recovery as a marker of penumbral salvage. PET with 11C-flumazenil and 11C-PK11195, as well as MRI to map the final infarct, were obtained at predefined follow-up times. The presence of selective neuronal loss and microglial activation was determined voxel-wise within the MRI normal-appearing ipsilateral non-infarcted zone and surviving penumbra masks, and their inter-relationship was assessed both across and within patients. Dilated infarct contours were consistently excluded to control for partial volume effects. Across the 16 recruited patients, there was reduced 11C-flumazenil and increased 11C-PK11195 binding in the whole ipsilateral non-infarcted zone (P = 0.04 and 0.02, respectively). Within the non-infarcted penumbra, 11C-flumazenil was also reduced (P = 0.001), but without clear increase in 11C-PK11195 (P = 0.18). There was no significant correlation between 11C-flumazenil and 11C-PK11195 in either compartment. This mechanistic study provides direct evidence for the presence of both neuronal loss and microglial activation in the ipsilateral non-infarcted zone. Further, we demonstrate the presence of neuronal loss affecting the surviving penumbra, with no or only mild microglial activation, and no significant relationship between these two processes. Thus, microglial activation may not contribute to penumbral neuronal loss in man, and its presence in the ipsilateral hemisphere may merely reflect secondary remote degeneration. Selective neuronal loss in the surviving penumbra may represent a novel therapeutic target as an adjunct to penumbral salvage to further improve functional outcome. However, microglial activation may not stand as the primary therapeutic approach. Protecting the penumbra by acutely improving perfusion and oxygenation in conjunction with thrombectomy for example, may be a better approach. 11C-flumazenil PET would be useful to monitor the effects of such therapies.

Background: Surgical patients increasingly have more comorbidities and are of an older age, complicating surgical decision-making in emergent situations. Little is known about surgeons' perceptions of shared decision-making in these settings., Study Design: Twenty semi-structured interviews were conducted with practicing surgeons at 2 large academic medical centers. Thirteen questions and 2 case vignettes were used to assess perceptions of decision-making, considerations when deciding whether to offer to operate, and communication patterns with patients and families., Results: Thematic analysis revealed 6 major themes: responsibility for the decision to operate, perceived futility, surgeon judgment, surgeon introspection, pressure to operate, and costs of the operation. Perceived futility was universally considered a contraindication to surgical intervention. However, the challenge of defining futility led participants to emphasize the importance of patients' self-determined risk-to-benefit analysis when considering surgical intervention. More experienced surgeons reported greater comfort with communicating to patients that a condition was not amenable to an operation and reserved the right to refuse to operate., Conclusions: Due to external pressures and uncertainty, some providers err on the side of operative intervention, despite suspected futility. Greater experience allows surgeons to withstand external pressures, be confident in their assessments of perceived futility, and guide patients and their families away from additional interventions., (Copyright © 2018 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

: Alterations in coagulation, inflammation and immunity are associated with major injury. As platelets have both coagulation and immune functions, the aim of this study is to correlate platelet activation with the immunoinflammatory response in trauma and burn patients. Blood samples were drawn from trauma and burn patients and healthy volunteers. Platelet (sCD40L) and coagulation (D-dimers) activation, cytokines and inflammatory markers were assessed. sCD40L, D-dimers and cytokines were elevated in both injury groups. Overall, sCD40L levels correlated with interleukin (IL)-6 and tumour necrosis factor-alpha. Subanalysis revealed a correlation between sCD40L and IL-17a in the healthy volunteers and burn groups, but not the trauma group. A parallel activation of platelets and the inflammatory response occurs postinjury. However, in trauma patients, a potential critical interrelationship between platelet activation and the Th-17 response appears to be lacking, which may contribute to coagulopathic and immunoinflammatory complications and warrants further study.

Background: While complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is commonly used in the United States and elsewhere, and hazardous interactions with prescription drugs can occur, patients do not regularly communicate with physicians about their CAM use. The objective of this study was to discover patient information needs and preferences for herb-drug-disease interaction alerts., Methods: We recruited 50 people from several locations within the University of Utah Hospital to participate in this structured interview study. They were asked to provide their preferences for the herb-drug-disease interaction alerts. Qualitative methods were used to reveal the themes that emerged from the interviews., Results: Most participants reported they had previously used, or they were currently using, CAM therapies. The majority had made the effort to inform their healthcare provider(s) about their CAM usage, although some had not. We found that most respondents were interested in receiving alerts and information about potential interactions. Many preferred to receive the alerts in a variety of ways, both in person and electronically., Conclusions: In addition to conventional medicine, many patients regularly use complementary and alternative therapies. And yet, communication between patients and providers about CAM use is not consistent. There is a demand for interventions in health care that provide timely, integrative communication support. Delivering the herb-drug-disease alerts through multiple channels could help meet critical patient information needs.

Background: Peritoneal carcinomatosis represents widespread metastatic disease throughout the abdomen and/or pelvis. Cytoreductive surgery/hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) improves the overall survival compared to standard therapy alone. The role palliative care (PC) plays however, remains poorly studied among these patients., Methods: Patients who had previously undergone HIPEC and who underwent an inpatient admission from 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014 were identified to determine which patients were referred for inpatient or outpatient palliative consultation. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with the use of PC., Results: Of the 60 patients analyzed, 23 (38.3%) had a PC consultation with a median time to PC referral of 310 (IQR: 151-484 days). Patients who were prescribed opioids (no PC referral versus PC referral: 46.0% versus 91.3%, P < 0.001), patients who reported the use of a cancer-related emetic (35.1% versus 87.0%, P < 0.001), patients reporting the use of total parenteral nutrition (16.2% versus 39.1%, P = 0.046), and patients dependent on a gastric tube for nutrition (5.4% versus 43.5%, P < 0.001) were more likely to be referred to a PC consultation. On multivariable analysis, use of opioids, use of a cancer-related antiemetic, and the use of a G-tube were independently associated with a greater odds for being referred to PC (all P < 0.05)., Conclusions: Approximately one-third of patients were referred to PC following cytoreductive surgery/hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy. Palliative care referrals were most commonly used for patients with chronic symptoms, which are difficult to manage, especially toward the end of life., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The One Health concept has been extensively used to describe those practices that support transdisciplinary collaborations involving animal and human health and the environment. During the past International Society of Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE) conference in Merida (Mexico) in November 2015, a panel discussion was held to identify gaps and needs required for success with such approaches. Key messages included further development of dynamic, transdisciplinary collaborations, new mechanisms for obtaining, integrating and interpreting data from diverse sources, the identification of One Health joint priorities and resources for the veterinary and public health professions, and operationalization and institutionalization of One Health. Additionally, all abstracts that were presented at ISVEE containing the term "One Health" were identified. There has been an increase in the use of the term over time. One Health research has been presented at ISVEE since at least as early as 2009 and has been highlighted at the conference for work carried out in at least 41 countries from 69 research centers or institutions, with highly diversified articles, which reveals the richness of this field of research., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This paper describes 50 years of personal experience in dealing with a range of animal and zoonotic diseases at national and global level, using a series of selected examples to illustrate both the nature of the various dilemmas and difficulties faced, and the way in which they were solved using the tools and techniques that were available at the particular time. A major theme throughout has been the dependence on advancing computer technology, which initially allowed only simple analyses and modelling activities to be undertaken, but as computers have grown increasingly powerful, techniques such as Bayesian spatial regression have become available to the epidemiologist, making possible forms of analysis and disease modelling which had been mere dreams in earlier decades. There is now a need to integrate these tools and techniques into a toolbox which allows both epidemiological and economic analysis to be applied to virtually any type of disease, thereby further extending the capacity of epidemiologists to solve even more difficult problems in the future., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Mapping the ischaemic penumbra in acute stroke is of considerable clinical interest. For this purpose, mapping tissue hypoxia with (18)F-misonidazole (FMISO) PET is attractive, and is straightforward compared to (15)O PET. Given the current emphasis on penumbra imaging using diffusion/perfusion MR or CT perfusion, investigating the relationships between FMISO uptake and abnormalities with these modalities is important., Methods: According to a prospective design, three patients (age 54-81 years; admission NIH stroke scale scores 16-22) with an anterior circulation stroke and extensive penumbra on CT- or MR-based perfusion imaging successfully completed FMISO PET, diffusion-weighted imaging and MR angiography 6-26 h after stroke onset, and follow-up FLAIR to map the final infarction. All had persistent proximal occlusion and a poor outcome despite thrombolysis. Significant FMISO trapping was defined voxel-wise relative to ten age-matched controls and mapped onto coregistered maps of the penumbra and irreversibly damaged ischaemic core., Results: FMISO trapping was present in all patients (volume range 18-119 ml) and overlapped mainly with the penumbra but also with the core in each patient. There was a significant (p ≤ 0.001) correlation in the expected direction between FMISO uptake and perfusion, with a sharp FMISO uptake bend around the expected penumbra threshold., Conclusion: FMISO uptake had the expected overlap with the penumbra and relationship with local perfusion. However, consistent with recent animal data, our study suggests FMISO trapping may not be specific to the penumbra. If confirmed in larger samples, this preliminary finding would have potential implications for the clinical application of FMISO PET in acute ischaemic stroke.

After stroke, penumbral salvage determines clinical recovery. However, the rescued penumbra may be affected by selective neuronal loss, as documented both histopathologically in animals and using the validated in vivo positron emission tomography marker (11)C-flumazenil in humans. However, whether the non-infarcted penumbra is capable of neuronal activation, and how selective neuronal loss may interfere, is unknown. Here we prospectively mapped the topographical relationships between functional magnetic resonance imaging responses and non-infarcted penumbra, and tested the hypothesis that the former do take place in the latter, but only in its subsets spared selective neuronal loss. Seven patients (mean age 74 years; three thrombolysed) with first-ever acute anterior circulation stroke, presence of penumbra on computed tomography perfusion performed within 6 h of onset, and substantial deficit on admission but good outcome at 1-3 months (National Institute of Health Stroke Score range 6-13 and 0-1, respectively, P = 0.001), were studied. At follow-up, patients underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging to map the infarct, functional magnetic resonance imaging (three tasks selected to probe the right or left hemisphere), and (11)C-flumazenil positron emission tomography generating binding potential maps. Patients with significant carotid or middle-cerebral artery disease or impaired vasoreactivity were excluded. Following image coregistration, the non-infarcted penumbra comprised all acutely ischaemic voxels (identified on acute computed tomography perfusion using previously validated thresholds) not part of the final infarct. To test our hypotheses, the overlap between functional magnetic resonance imaging activation clusters and non-infarcted penumbra was mapped, and binding potential values then computed both within and outside this overlap. In addition, the overlap between functional magnetic resonance imaging activation clusters and areas of significantly reduced binding potential (determined using Statistical Parametric Mapping against 16 age-matched control subjects) was assessed in each patient. An overlap between non-infarcted penumbra and functional magnetic resonance imaging clusters was present in seven of seven patients, substantial in four. Binding potential was significantly reduced in the whole non-infarcted penumbra (P < 0.01) but not within the functional magnetic resonance imaging overlap. Clusters with significantly reduced binding potential showed virtually no overlap with functional magnetic resonance imaging activation compared with 12 age-matched controls (P = 0.04).The results from this proof of principle study suggest that 1-3 months after stroke the non-infarcted penumbra is capable of neuronal activation, consistent with its established role in recovery of neurological functions. However, although the non-infarcted penumbra as a whole was affected by selective neuronal loss, activations tended to occur within portions spared selective neuronal loss, suggesting the latter impedes neuronal activation. Although its clinical correlates are still elusive, selective neuronal loss may represent a novel therapeutic target in the aftermath of ischaemic stroke.

We describe the spatially explicit, stochastic simulation model of disease spread, InterSpread Plus, in terms of its epidemiological framework, operation, and mode of use. The input data required by the model, the method for simulating contact and infection spread, and methods for simulating disease control measures are described. Data and parameters that are essential for disease simulation modelling using InterSpread Plus are distinguished from those that are non-essential, and it is suggested that a rational approach to simulating disease epidemics using this tool is to start with core data and parameters, adding additional layers of complexity if and when the specific requirements of the simulation exercise require it. We recommend that simulation models of disease are best developed as part of epidemic contingency planning so decision makers are familiar with model outputs and assumptions and are well-positioned to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses to make informed decisions in times of crisis., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Stroke is the third most common cause of death in most developed countries. It is a worldwide problem; about 4.5 million people die from stroke each year. Stroke can occur at any age, but half of all strokes occur in people aged over 70 years. About 80% of all acute strokes are ischaemic, usually resulting from thrombotic or embolic occlusion of a cerebral artery. The remainder are caused either by intracerebral or subarachnoid haemorrhage., Methods and Outcomes: We conducted a systematic review and aimed to answer the following clinical questions: What are the effects of specialised care in people with acute stroke? What are the effects of medical treatment in people with acute ischaemic stroke? What are the effects of decompressive hemicraniectomy in acute ischaemic stroke? What are the effects of surgical evacuation for intracerebral haematomas? We searched: Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library, and other important databases up to August 2010 (Clinical Evidence reviews are updated periodically, please check our website for the most up-to-date version of this review). We included harms alerts from relevant organisations such as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA)., Results: We found 41 systematic reviews, RCTs, or observational studies that met our inclusion criteria. We performed a GRADE evaluation of the quality of evidence for interventions., Conclusions: In this systematic review we present information relating to the effectiveness and safety of the following interventions: acute reduction in blood pressure, aspirin, evacuation (early surgical evacuation, or conservative treatment), decompressive hemicraniectomy, neuroprotective agents (calcium channel blockers, citicoline, gamma-aminobutyric acid agonists, glycine antagonists, lubeluzole, magnesium, N-methyl-D-aspartate antagonists), specialised stroke care, systemic anticoagulation (heparinoids, specific thrombin inhibitors, low molecular weight heparin, oral anticoagulants, unfractionated heparin), and thrombolysis.

A cross-sectional survey of management practices of itinerant grazing ducks (known as field running ducks) was conducted during March 2008 in four districts of Can Tho and Bac Lieu provinces in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam. The objective was to characterize the demographic structure of the itinerant grazing duck population and the management practices which might be related to the continuing outbreaks of H5N1 avian influenza in this region. Broiler duck flocks were owned by 55% of survey respondents, and layer flocks by 53%. Greater than 80% of ducks within 93% of villages and 99% of duck flocks were reported to have been vaccinated against H5N1 avian influenza, whereas only 19% of villages and 60% of chicken flocks had greater than 80% of chickens vaccinated. Fifty-nine percent of duck owners moved their ducks outside their home communes, whilst 37% and 28% of owners moved their ducks outside their home district and province, respectively. Larger flocks were more likely to be run outside their home district compared with smaller flocks. After adjusting for the effect of flock production type and district, the odds of an out-of-district field running duck flock movement was increased by a factor of 7.24 (95% CI 2.89-19.24) for households with flocks of more than 800 ducks, compared with flocks of less than 250. Most households sold ducks to traders (72%) or to neighbours (33%), whereas less than 20% sold their birds through markets. The findings of this study suggest that surveillance strategies for field running duck flocks should focus on layer flocks as well as larger flocks as they are more likely to be moved outside of their home district, facilitating long-distance disease spread.

Aims: To determine the annual likelihood of exposure to an infectious dose of Trichinella spiralis from consuming imported pork meat from New Zealand to Singapore., Methods: Input values specific for chilled pork meat imported into Singapore from New Zealand were used in a quantitative risk-assessment model. The model, designed to allow any combination of importing and exporting countries, was divided into two components, viz the release assessment, and the exposure assessment that assessed the annual risk of exposure to the consumer (ARC). The former estimated the likelihood that a contaminated fresh meat product from New Zealand would arrive at Singapore's border, and took into consideration the prevalence of disease on different types of farms. The latter determined the likelihood over a year that a person in Singapore would consume one or more servings of imported fresh meat from New Zealand that contained a burden of greater than or equal to one larva(e) of T. spiralis per gram after preparation for consumption., Results: The ARC for offal was 2.41 x 10(-7), which was below the pre-selected safety threshold of 1.00 x 10(-6). The ARC for lean meat was 2.39 x 10(-5), which was above the acceptable safety threshold., Conclusions: The study demonstrated that continued routine testing at slaughter is unnecessary for pig offal produced commercially, and provided a model with which to further assess management of the risk of exposure to T. spiralis in lean meat., Clinical Relevance: The potential of Trichinella species to cause disease in humans is a public health concern, and has created adverse effects on the international trade of fresh lean meat without regard to the surveillance measures employed by particular pork-producing countries.

This study quantifies the spatio-temporal association between outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in domestic poultry (n = 3050) and human cases (n = 99) in Vietnam during 2003-2007, using rare events logistic regression. After adjusting for the effect of known confounders, the odds of a human case being reported to authorities increased by a factor of 6.17 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.33-11.38] and 2.48 (95% CI 1.20 - 5.13) if poultry outbreaks were reported in the same district 1 week and 4 weeks later respectively. When jointly considering poultry outbreaks in the same and neighbouring districts, occurrence of poultry outbreaks in the same week, 1-week later, and 4 weeks later increased the odds of a human case by a factor of 2.75 (95% CI 1.43-5.30), 2.56 (95% CI 1.31-5.00) and 2.70 (95% CI 1.56-4.66) respectively. Our study found evidence of different levels of association between human cases and poultry outbreaks in the North and the South of the country. When considering the 9-week interval extending from 4 weeks before to 4 weeks after the week of reporting a human case, in the South poultry outbreaks were recorded in 58% of cases in the same district and 83% of cases in either the same or neighbouring districts, whereas in the North the equivalent results were only 23% and 42%. The strength of the association between human and poultry cases declined over the study period. We conclude that owner reporting of clinical disease in poultry needs to be enhanced by targeted agent-specific surveillance integrated with preventive and other measures, if human exposure is to be minimized.

The aim of this paper is to investigate local spatial dependency with regard to Salmonella seropositivity in data from the Danish swine salmonellosis control programme and its application in informing surveillance strategies. We applied inhomogeneous and observed-difference K-function estimation, and geo-statistical modelling to data from the Danish swine salmonellosis control programme. Slaughter-pig farm density showed large variation at both the country-wide and local level in Denmark (median 0.23, range 0.02-0.47 farms/km(2)). The spatial distribution of pig farms followed a random inhomogeneous Poisson process but was not aggregated. We found evidence for aggregation of Salmonella case farms over that of all farms at distances of up to 6 km and semivariogram analyses of Salmonella seropositivity revealed spatial dependency between pairs of farms up to 4 km apart. The strength of the spatial dependency was positively associated with slaughter-pig farm density. We proposed sampling more intensively those farms within a 4 km radius of farms that were identified with a high Salmonella status, and reduced sampling of farms that are within this radius of 'Salmonella-free' farms. Our approach has the potential to optimize sampling strategies while maintaining consumer confidence in food safety and also has potential to be used for other zoonotic disease surveillance systems.

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A subtype H5N1 have occurred in Vietnam as a series of epidemic waves since December 2003. We describe the spatial and temporal patterns of the HPAI H5N1 epidemics in the Red River Delta in the north (785 outbreaks in 606 communes) and the Mekong River Delta in the south of Vietnam (1313 outbreaks in 837 communes), where the epidemics were concentrated. Throughout the study period the percentage of outbreaks affecting ducks increased steadily to a peak of 78% during the 2006/2007 epidemic in both deltas. Five of the seven epidemic waves occurred in the period of active poultry population buildup immediately prior to the Vietnamese New Year (Tet festival). Recorded outbreaks were clustered in space and time within both deltas, consistent with infection transmission occurring via a combination of local and long-distance spread. Our analyses demonstrate that the epidemiology of HPAI in Vietnam has changed over the 4-year study period, with outbreaks now occurring in the warmer months of the year and ducks featuring more prominently as affected species. To determine the relative importance of local and long-distance spread on infection transmission, precise details of outbreak location, date of onset of clinical signs, and size and composition of the poultry population at risk need to be recorded during future outbreak responses.

Between October 2001 and December 2006 an estimated total of 6 million cattle in Japan were tested for BSE, with 31 returning a positive result. Exploratory mapping, the space-time scan statistic, and ordinal logistic regression have been used to describe the epidemiology of the 24 cases identified in the prefecture of Hokkaido, and to quantify the risk factors for the disease. Two birth cohort groups were affected: cattle born during a period of seven months in 1996, and cattle born between 1999 and 2001. The descriptive spatial analyses showed that eight of the 10 cases born in 1996 were born in areas with a relatively high density of dairy farms in the east of Hokkaido, but that the 14 later cases were more widely distributed throughout the prefecture, with equal numbers of cases in the east and the west. These findings provide indirect evidence of a single localised contamination of the cattle feed supply in 1996, and recycling of the infection after 1999.

Introduction: Stroke is the third most common cause of death in most resource-rich countries. It is a worldwide problem; about 4.5 million people die from stroke each year. Stroke can occur at any age, but half of all strokes occur in people aged over 70 years. About 80% of all acute strokes are ischaemic, usually resulting from thrombotic or embolic occlusion of a cerebral artery. The remainder are caused either by intracerebral or subarachnoid haemorrhage., Methods and Outcomes: We conducted a systematic review and aimed to answer the following clinical questions: What are the effects of specialised care in people with acute stroke? What are the effects of medical treatment in people with acute ischaemic stroke? What are the effects of surgical treatment for intracerebral haematomas? We searched: Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library, and other important databases up to June 2007 (BMJ Clinical Evidence reviews are updated periodically, please check our website for the most up-to-date version of this review). We included harms alerts from relevant organisations such as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA)., Results: We found 42 systematic reviews, RCTs, or observational studies that met our inclusion criteria. We performed a GRADE evaluation of the quality of evidence for interventions., Conclusions: In this systematic review we present information relating to the effectiveness and safety of the following interventions: acute reduction in blood pressure, aspirin, evacuation (early surgical evacuation, or conservative treatment), neuroprotective agents (calcium channel antagonists, citicoline, gamma-aminobutyric acid agonists, glycine antagonists, lubeluzole, magnesium, N-methyl-D-aspartate antagonists, tirilazad), specialised stroke care, systemic anticoagulation (heparinoids, low or specific thrombin inhibitors, molecular weight heparin, oral anticoagulants, unfractionated heparin), and thrombolysis.

We describe the spatial epidemiological features of the 6.8 million meat-juice serological tests that were conducted between 1995 and 2004 as part of the Danish swine Salmonella control programme. We investigated pig and farm density using edge-corrected kernel estimations. Pigs were aggregated at the county level to assess county-level risk, and then we investigated farm-level risk by giving farms a case or non-case label using a cut-off of 40% of pigs positive. Conditional probability surfaces, correcting for the underlying population at risk, were produced for each year of the study period using a novel kernel estimator with a spatially adaptive smoothing bandwidth. This approach improves on previous methods by allowing focussed estimation of risk in areas of high population density while maintaining stable estimates in regions where the data are sparse. Two spatial trends in the conditional probability of a farm being a case were evident: (1) over the whole country, with the highest risk in the west compared to the east; and (2) on the Jutland peninsula with the highest risk in the north and south. At the farm-level a consistent area of risk was the south-west of Jutland. Case farms tended to aggregate indicating spatial dependency in the data. We found no association between pig or farm density and Salmonella risk. We generated hypotheses for this spatial pattern of risk and we conclude that this spatial pattern should be considered in the development of surveillance strategies and as a basis for further, more detailed analyses of the data.

Our BSurvE spreadsheet model estimates the BSE prevalence in a national cattle population, and can be used to evaluate and compare alternative strategies for a national surveillance program. Each individual surveillance test has a point value (based on demographic and epidemiological information) that reflects the likelihood of detecting BSE in an animal of a given age leaving the population via the stated surveillance stream. A target sum point value for the country is calculated according to a user-defined design prevalence and confidence level, the number of cases detected in animals born after the selected starting date and the national adult-herd size. Surveillance tests carried out on different sub-populations of animals are ranked according to the number of points gained per unit cost, and the results can be used in designing alternative surveillance programs.

Distribution of finite levels of resources between multiple competing tasks can be a challenging problem. Resources need to be distributed across time periods and geographic locations to increase the probability of detection of a disease incursion or significant change in disease pattern. Efforts should focus primarily on areas and populations where risk factors for a given disease reach relatively high levels. In order to target resources into these areas, the overall risk level can be evaluated periodically across locations to create a dynamic national risk landscape. Methods are described to integrate the levels of various risk factors into an overall risk score for each area, to account for the certainty or variability around those measures and then to allocate surveillance resources across this risk landscape. In addition to targeting resources into high risk areas, surveillance continues in lower risk areas where there is a small yet positive chance of disease occurrence. In this paper we describe the application of portfolio theory concepts, routinely used in finance, to design surveillance portfolios for a series of examples. The appropriate level of resource investment is chosen for each disease or geographical area and time period given the degree of disease risk and uncertainty present.