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Terrestrial ecosystem respiration increases exponentially with temperature, constituting a positive feedback loop accelerating global warming. However, the response of ecosystem respiration to temperature strongly depends on water availability, yet where and when the water effects are important, is presently poorly constrained, introducing uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedback projections. Here, we disentangle the effects of temperature and precipitation (a proxy for water availability) on ecosystem respiration by analysing eddy covariance CO 2 flux measurements across 212 globally distributed sites. We reveal a threshold precipitation function, determined by the balance between precipitation and ecosystem water demand, which separates temperature-limited and water-limited respiration. Respiration is temperature limited for precipitation above that threshold function, whereas in drier areas water limitation reduces the temperature sensitivity of respiration and its positive feedback to global warming. If the trend of expansion of water-limited areas with warming climate over the last decades continues, the positive feedback of ecosystem respiration is likely to be weakened and counteracted by the increasing water limitation., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Ecosystem restoration can increase the health and resilience of nature and humanity. As a result, the international community is championing habitat restoration as a primary solution to address the dual climate and biodiversity crises. Yet most ecosystem restoration efforts to date have underperformed, failed, or been burdened by high costs that prevent upscaling. To become a primary, scalable conservation strategy, restoration efficiency and success must increase dramatically. Here, we outline how integrating ten foundational ecological theories that have not previously received much attention - from hierarchical facilitation to macroecology - into ecosystem restoration planning and management can markedly enhance restoration success. We propose a simple, systematic approach to determining which theories best align with restoration goals and are most likely to bolster their success. Armed with a century of advances in ecological theory, restoration practitioners will be better positioned to more cost-efficiently and effectively rebuild the world's ecosystems and support the resilience of our natural resources., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The emergence and maintenance of tree species diversity in tropical forests is commonly attributed to the Janzen-Connell (JC) hypothesis, which states that growth of seedlings is suppressed in the proximity of conspecific adult trees. As a result, a JC distribution due to a density-dependent negative feedback emerges in the form of a (transient) pattern where conspecific seedling density is highest at intermediate distances away from parent trees. Several studies suggest that the required density-dependent feedbacks behind this pattern could result from interactions between trees and soil-borne pathogens. However, negative plant-soil feedback may involve additional mechanisms, including the accumulation of autotoxic compounds generated through tree litter decomposition. An essential task therefore consists in constructing mathematical models incorporating both effects showing the ability to support the emergence of JC distributions. In this work, we develop and analyse a novel reaction-diffusion-ODE model, describing the interactions within tropical tree species across different life stages (seeds, seedlings, and adults) as driven by negative plant-soil feedback. In particular, we show that under strong negative plant-soil feedback travelling wave solutions exist, creating transient distributions of adult trees and seedlings that are in agreement with the Janzen-Connell hypothesis. Moreover, we show that these travelling wave solutions are pulled fronts and a robust feature as they occur over a broad parameter range. Finally, we calculate their linear spreading speed and show its (in)dependence on relevant nondimensional parameters., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Facilitative interactions among species are key in plant communities. While experimental tests support the Stress Gradient Hypothesis (SGH) as an association between facilitation and stress, whether the shape of net effects along stress gradients can be predicted is controversial, with no available mathematical modelling approaches. We proposed a novel test, using a modification of the R* model to study how negative and positive partial effects of plant interactions in drylands combine along two common stress gradients. We modelled different interactions: competition for water and light, amelioration of soil infiltration and/or grazing protection, obtaining that intensity and importance of facilitation did not generally increase along stress gradients, being dependent on the interaction type. While along the water stress gradient net interactions became more positive, reaching a maximum and then waning again, various outcomes were observed along the grazing gradient. Shape variety was mainly driven by the various shapes of the partial positive effects. Under resource stress, additive interaction effects can be expected, whereas when including grazing, the effects were non-additive. In the context of the SGH, deconstructing the effect of positive and negative interaction in a pairwise mechanistic models of drylands does not show a unique shape along stress gradients., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Coastal ecosystems provide vital services, but human disturbance causes massive losses. Remaining ecosystems are squeezed between rising seas and human infrastructure development. While shoreline retreat is intensively studied, coastal congestion through infrastructure remains unquantified. Here we analyse 235,469 transects worldwide to show that infrastructure occurs at a median distance of 392 meter from sandy shorelines. Moreover, we find that 33% of sandy shores harbour less than 100 m of infrastructure-free space, and that 23-30% of this space may be lost by 2100 due to rising sea levels. Further analyses show that population density and gross domestic product explain 35-39% of observed squeeze variation, emphasizing the intensifying pressure imposed as countries develop and populations grow. Encouragingly, we find that nature reserves relieve squeezing by 4-7 times. Yet, at present only 16% of world's sandy shores have a protected status. We therefore advocate the incorporation of nature protection into spatial planning policies., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

In this work, we theoretically explore how litter decomposition processes and soil-borne pathogens contribute to negative plant-soil feedbacks, in particular in transient and stable spatial organisation of tropical forest trees and seedlings known as Janzen-Connell distributions. By considering soil-borne pathogens and autotoxicity both separately and in combination in a phenomenological model, we can study how both factors may affect transient dynamics and emerging Janzen-Connell distributions. We also identify parameter regimes associated with different long-term behaviours. Moreover, we compare how the strength of negative plant-soil feedbacks was mediated by tree germination and growth strategies, using a combination of analytical approaches and numerical simulations. Our interdisciplinary investigation, motivated by an ecological question, allows us to construct important links between local feedbacks, spatial self-organisation, and community assembly. Our model analyses contribute to understanding the drivers of biodiversity in tropical ecosystems, by disentangling the abilities of two potential mechanisms to generate Janzen-Connell distributions. Furthermore, our theoretical results may help guiding future field data analyses by identifying spatial signatures in adult tree and seedling distribution data that may reflect the presence of particular plant-soil feedback mechanisms., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Spatial self-organization of ecosystems into large-scale (from micron to meters) patterns is an important phenomenon in ecology, enabling organisms to cope with harsh environmental conditions and buffering ecosystem degradation. Scale-dependent feedbacks provide the predominant conceptual framework for self-organized spatial patterns, explaining regular patterns observed in, e.g., arid ecosystems or mussel beds. Here, we highlight an alternative mechanism for self-organized patterns, based on the aggregation of a biotic or abiotic species, such as herbivores, sediment, or nutrients. Using a generalized mathematical model, we demonstrate that ecosystems with aggregation-driven patterns have fundamentally different dynamics and resilience properties than ecosystems with patterns that formed through scale-dependent feedbacks. Building on the physics theory for phase-separation dynamics, we show that patchy ecosystems with aggregation patterns are more vulnerable than systems with patterns formed through scale-dependent feedbacks, especially at small spatial scales. This is because local disturbances can trigger large-scale redistribution of resources, amplifying local degradation. Finally, we show that insights from physics, by providing mechanistic understanding of the initiation of aggregation patterns and their tendency to coarsen, provide a new indicator framework to signal proximity to ecological tipping points and subsequent ecosystem degradation for this class of patchy ecosystems.

Indicators to predict ecosystem state change are urgently needed to cope with the degradation of ecosystem services caused by global change. With the development of new technologies for measuring ecosystem function with fine spatiotemporal resolution over broad areas, we are in the era of 'big data'. However, it is unclear how large, emerging datasets can be used to anticipate ecosystem state change. We propose the construction of indicators based on functional variables (flows) and state variables (pools) to predict future ecosystem state changes. The indicators identified here may be useful signals for doing so. In addition, functional indicators have explicit ecological meanings that can identify the ecological mechanism that is causing state changes, and can thus be used to improve ecosystem models., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Biogeomorphic wetlands cover 1% of Earth's surface but store 20% of ecosystem organic carbon. This disproportional share is fueled by high carbon sequestration rates and effective storage in peatlands, mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows, which greatly exceed those of oceanic and forest ecosystems. Here, we review how feedbacks between geomorphology and landscape-building vegetation underlie these qualities and how feedback disruption can switch wetlands from carbon sinks into sources. Currently, human activities are driving rapid declines in the area of major carbon-storing wetlands (1% annually). Our findings highlight the urgency to stop through conservation ongoing losses and to reestablish landscape-forming feedbacks through restoration innovations that recover the role of biogeomorphic wetlands as the world's biotic carbon hotspots.

Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

The concept of tipping points and critical transitions helps inform our understanding of the catastrophic effects that global change may have on ecosystems, Earth system components, and the whole Earth system. The search for early warning indicators is ongoing, and spatial self-organization has been interpreted as one such signal. Here, we review how spatial self-organization can aid complex systems to evade tipping points and can therefore be a signal of resilience instead. Evading tipping points through various pathways of spatial pattern formation may be relevant for many ecosystems and Earth system components that hitherto have been identified as tipping prone, including for the entire Earth system. We propose a systematic analysis that may reveal the broad range of conditions under which tipping is evaded and resilience emerges.

Effective management strategies are needed to control expansion of invasive alien plant species and attenuate economic and ecological impacts. While previous theoretical studies have assessed optimal control strategies that balance economic costs and ecological benefits, less attention has been paid to the ways in which the spatial characteristics of individual patches may mediate the effectiveness of management strategies. We developed a spatially explicit cellular automaton model for invasive species spread, and compared the effectiveness of seven control strategies. These control strategies used different criteria to prioritize the removal of invasive species patches from the landscape. The different criteria were related to patch size, patch geometry, and patch position within the landscape. Effectiveness of strategies was assessed for both seed dispersing and clonally expanding plant species. We found that, for seed-dispersing species, removal of small patches and removal of patches that are isolated within the landscape comprised relatively effective control strategies. For clonally expanding species, removal of patches based on their degree of isolation and their geometrical properties comprised relatively effective control strategies. Subsequently, we parameterized the model to mimic the observed spatial distribution of the invasive species Antigonon leptopus on St. Eustatius (northern Caribbean). This species expands clonally and also disperses via seeds, and model simulations showed that removal strategies focusing on smaller patches that are more isolated in the landscape would be most effective and could increase the effectiveness of a 10-yr control strategy by 30-90%, as compared to random removal of patches. Our study emphasizes the potential for invasive plant species management to utilize recent advances in remote sensing, which enable mapping of invasive species at the high spatial resolution needed to quantify patch geometries. The presented results highlight how this spatial information can be used in the design of more effective invasive species control strategies., (© 2020 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Ecological Society of America.)

In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self-organised) spatial patterns - typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self-organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre-emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy., (© 2020 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Recent observations suggest that repeated fires could drive Mediterranean forests to shrublands, hosting flammable vegetation that regrows quickly after fire. This feedback supposedly favours shrubland persistence and may be strengthened in the future by predicted increased aridity. An assessment was made of how fires and aridity in combination modulated the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems and whether the feedback could be strong enough to maintain shrubland as an alternative stable state to forest. A model was developed for vegetation dynamics, including stochastic fires and different plant fire-responses. Parameters were calibrated using observational data from a period up to 100 yr ago, from 77 sites with and without fires in Southeast Spain and Southern France. The forest state was resilient to the separate impact of fires and increased aridity. However, water stress could convert forests into open shrublands by hampering post-fire recovery, with a possible tipping point at intermediate aridity. Projected increases in aridity may reduce the resilience of Mediterranean forests against fires and drive post-fire ecosystem dynamics toward open shrubland. The main effect of increased aridity is the limitation of post-fire recovery. Including plant fire-responses is thus fundamental when modelling the fate of Mediterranean-type vegetation under climate-change scenarios., (© 2019 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2019 New Phytologist Trust.)