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53. Impact of Assimilated and Interactive Aerosol on Tropical Cyclogenesis

Author

Reale, O, Lau, K. M, daSilva, A, and Matsui, T

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

This article investigates the impact 3 of Saharan dust on the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. A global data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA GEOS-5, is used to assimilate all satellite and conventional data sets used operationally for numerical weather prediction. In addition, this new GEOS-5 version includes assimilation of aerosol optical depth from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The analysis so obtained comprises atmospheric quantities and a realistic 3-d aerosol and cloud distribution, consistent with the meteorology and validated against Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and CloudSat data. These improved analyses are used to initialize GEOS-5 forecasts, explicitly accounting for aerosol direct radiative effects and their impact on the atmospheric dynamics. Parallel simulations with/without aerosol radiative effects show that effects of dust on static stability increase with time, becoming highly significant after day 5 and producing an environment less favorable to tropical cyclogenesis.

Published
2014

56. Use of high-resolution satellite observations to evaluate cloud and precipitation statistics from cloud-resolving model simulations. Part I: South China Sea Monsoon Experiment

Author

Zhou, Y.P., Tao, W.-K., Hou, A.Y., Olson, W.S., Shie, C.-L., Lau, K.-M., Chou, M.-D., Lin, X., and Grecu, M.

Subjects
South China Sea -- Environmental aspects, Earth sciences, Science and technology
Abstract

Cloud and precipitation simulated using the three-dimensional (3D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model are compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) rainfall measurements and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) single scanner footprint (SSF) radiation and cloud retrievals. Both the model simulation and retrieved parameters are based upon observations made during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) field campaign. The model-simulated cloud and rain systems are evaluated by systematically examining important parameters such as the surface rain rate, convective/stratiform percentage, rain profiles, cloud properties, and precipitation efficiency. It is demonstrated that the GCE model is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproduces the total surface rainfall amount as compared to rainfall estimated from the SCSMEX sounding network. The model yields a slightly higher total convective rain/stratiform rain ratio than the TMI and PR observations. The GCE rainfall spectrum exhibits a greater contribution from heavy rains than those estimated from PR or TMI observations. In addition, the GCE simulation produces much greater amounts of snow and graupel than the TRMM retrievals. The model's precipitation efficiency of convective rain is close to the observations, but the precipitation efficiency of stratiform rain is much lower than the observations because of large amounts of slowly falling simulated snow and graupel. Compared to observations, the GCE produces more compact areas of intense convection and less anvil cloud, which are consistent with a smaller total cloud fraction and larger domain-averaged outgoing longwave radiation.

Published
2007

61. Interactions between tropical convection and its environment: an energetics analysis of a 2D cloud resolving simulation

Author

Li, Xiaofan, Sui, C.-H., and Lau, K.-M.

Subjects
Tropics -- Environmental aspects, Clouds -- Models, Earth sciences, Science and technology
Abstract

The phase relation between the perturbation kinetic energy (K') associated with the tropical convection and the horizontal-mean moist available potential energy ([bar]P) associated with environmental conditions is investigated by an energetics analysis of a numerical experiment. This experiment is performed using a 2D cloud resolving model forced by the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) derived vertical velocity. The imposed upward motion leads to a decrease of [bar]P through the associated vertical advective cooling, and to an increase of K' through cloud-related processes, feeding the convection. The maximum K' and its maximum growth rate lags and leads, respectively, the maximum imposed large-scale upward motion by about 1-2 h, indicating that convection is phase locked with large-scale forcing. The dominant life cycle of the simulated convection is about 9 h, whereas the timescales of the imposed large-scale forcing are longer than the diurnal cycle. In the convective events, the maximum growth of K' leads the maximum decay of the perturbation moist available potential energy (P') by about 3 h through vertical heat transport by perturbation circulation, and perturbation cloud heating. The maximum decay of P' leads the maximum decay of [bar]P by about 1 h through the perturbation radiative processes, the horizontal-mean cloud heating, and the large-scale vertical advective cooling. Therefore, maximum gain of K' occurs about 4-5 h before maximum decay of [bar]P.

Published
2002

63. Changes in the Intensity and Frequency of Atmospheric Blocking and Associated Heat Waves During Northern Summer Over Eurasia in the CMIP5 Model Simulations

Author

Kim, Kyu-Myong, Lau, K. M, Wu, H. T, Kim, Maeng-Ki, and Cho, Chunho

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

The Russia heat wave and wild fires of the summer of 2010 was the most extreme weather event in the history of the country. Studies show that the root cause of the 2010 Russia heat wave/wild fires was an atmospheric blocking event which started to develop at the end of June and peaked around late July and early August. Atmospheric blocking in the summer of 2010 was anomalous in terms of the size, duration, and the location, which shifted to the east from the normal location. This and other similar continental scale severe summertime heat waves and blocking events in recent years have raised the question of whether such events are occurring more frequently and with higher intensity in a warmer climate induced by greenhouse gases. We studied the spatial and temporal distributions of the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric blocking and associated heat waves for northern summer over Eurasia based on CMIPS model simulations. To examine the global warming induced change of atmospheric blocking and heat waves, experiments for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.S) and a medium mitigation scenario (RCP4.S) are compared to the 20th century simulations (historical). Most models simulate the mean distributions of blockings reasonably well, including major blocking centers over Eurasia, northern Pacific, and northern Atlantic. However, the models tend to underestimate the number of blockings compared to MERRA and NCEPIDOE reanalysis, especially in western Siberia. Models also reproduced associated heat waves in terms of the shifting in the probability distribution function of near surface temperature. Seven out of eight models used in this study show that the frequency of atmospheric blocking over the Europe will likely decrease in a warmer climate, but slightly increase over the western Siberia. This spatial pattern resembles the blocking in the summer of 2010, indicating the possibility of more frequent occurrences of heat waves in western Siberia. In this talk, we will also discuss the potential effect of atmosphere-land feedback, particularly how the wetter spring affects the frequency and intensity of atmospheric blocking and heat wave during summer.

Published
2012

64. A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

Author

Lau, K. -M, Wu, H. -T, and Kim, K. -M

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

Published
2012

66. A Novel Nonintrusive Method to Resolve the Thermal Dome Effect of Pyranometers: Radiometric Calibration and Implications

Author

Ji. Q, Tsay, S.-C, Lau, K. M, Hansell, R. A, Butler, J. J, and Cooper, J. W

Subjects
Geophysics
Abstract

Traditionally the calibration equation for pyranometers assumes that the measured solar irradiance is solely proportional to the thermopile s output voltage; therefore, only a single calibration factor is derived. This causes additional measurement uncertainties because it does not capture sufficient information to correctly account for a pyranometer s thermal effect. In our updated calibration equation, temperatures from the pyranometer's dome and case are incorporated to describe the instrument's thermal behavior, and a new set of calibration constants are determined, thereby reducing measurement uncertainties. In this paper, we demonstrate why a pyranometer's uncertainty using the traditional calibration equation is always larger than a few percent, but with the new approach can become much less than 1% after the thermal issue is resolved. The highlighted calibration results are based on NIST traceable light sources under controlled laboratory conditions. The significance of the new approach lends itself to not only avoiding the uncertainty caused by a pyranometer's thermal effect but also the opportunity to better isolate and characterize other instrumental artifacts, such as angular response and nonlinearity of the thermopile, to further reduce additional uncertainties. We also discuss some of the implications, including an example of how the thermal issue can potentially impact climate studies by evaluating aerosol s direct radiative effect using field measurements with and without considering the pyranometer s thermal effect. The results of radiative transfer model simulation show that a pyranometer s thermal effect on solar irradiance measurements at the surface can be translated into a significant alteration of the calculated distribution of solar energy inside the column atmosphere.

Published
2011
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67. A Novel Non-Intrusive Method to Resolve the Thermal-Dome-Effect of Pyranometers: Radiometric Calibration and Implications

Author

Ji, Qiang, Tsay, Si-Chee, Lau, K. M, Hansell, R. A, Butler, J. J, and Cooper, J. W

Subjects
Geophysics
Abstract

Traditionally the calibration equation for pyranometers assumes that the measured solar irradiance is solely proportional to the thermopile's output voltage; therefore only a single calibration factor is derived. This causes additional measurement uncertainties because it does not capture sufficient information to correctly account for a pyranometer's thermal effect. In our updated calibration equation, temperatures from the pyranometer's dome and case are incorporated to describe the instrument's thermal behavior, and a new set of calibration constants are determined, thereby reducing measurement uncertainties. In this paper, we demonstrate why a pyranometer's uncertainty using the traditional calibration equation is always larger than a-few-percent, but with the new approach can become much less than 1% after the thermal issue is resolved. The highlighted calibration results are based on NIST-traceable light sources under controlled laboratory conditions. The significance of the new approach lends itself to not only avoiding the uncertainty caused by a pyranometer's thermal effect but also the opportunity to better isolate and characterize other instrumental artifacts, such as angular response and non-linearity of the thermopile, to further reduce additional uncertainties. We also discuss some of the implications, including an example of how the thermal issue can potentially impact climate studies by evaluating aerosol's direct-radiative effect using field measurements with and without considering the pyranometer's thermal effect. The results of radiative transfer model simulation show that a pyranometer's thermal effect on solar irradiance measurements at the surface can be translated into a significant alteration of the calculated distribution of solar energy inside the column atmosphere.

Published
2011

68. Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

Author

Lau, K. M and Zhou, Y. P

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Published
2011

69. Comment on ''Elevated Heat Pump' Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: 'Grounded' in Observations?' by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

Author

Lau, K. M and Kim, K. M

Subjects
Geophysics
Abstract

In their recent paper, Nigam and Bollasina [2010] (hereinafter NB) claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the elevated heat pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Kim, 2006]. We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from their own out of context interpretation of the hypothesis. NB argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May, are evidence against the EHP hypothesis. Their argument cannot be justified. First, Lau and Kim [2006] (hereinafter LK06) never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are nonlocal in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. As shown in Figure 4 of LK06, while the aerosol anomalies are strongest in April-May, the strongest rainfall response is in June-July, with the enhanced rainfall fed by an induced thermally driven circulation which brings additional moisture from the ocean to the Indian subcontinent. Third, the increased rainfall over the Bay of Bengal as shown in Figure 1a of NB and the increased low-level convergence in Figure 1f of NB do not necessarily reflect responses associated with EHP but rather the large ]scale circulation that provides the buildup of the aerosols before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no washout by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols. For the same reason, the spatial distributions of rainfall and aerosol generally are offset with each other, i.e., high aerosol in regions of low rainfall. This is evident in Figure 1, which shows the climatological mean of the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD), and TRMM rainfall over India in May. The maximum AOD is found over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the desert regions of northwest India and Pakistan

Published
2011
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70. Influence of Dust and Black Carbon on the Snow Albedo in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 Land Surface Model

Author

Yasunari, Teppei J, Koster, Randal D, Lau, K. M, Aoki, Teruo, Sud, Yogesh C, Yamazaki, Takeshi, Motoyoshi, Hiroki, and Kodama, Yuji

Subjects
Geophysics
Abstract

Present-day land surface models rarely account for the influence of both black carbon and dust in the snow on the snow albedo. Snow impurities increase the absorption of incoming shortwave radiation (particularly in the visible bands), whereby they have major consequences for the evolution of snowmelt and life cycles of snowpack. A new parameterization of these snow impurities was included in the catchment-based land surface model used in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Earth Observing System version 5. Validation tests against in situ observed data were performed for the winter of 2003.2004 in Sapporo, Japan, for both the new snow albedo parameterization (which explicitly accounts for snow impurities) and the preexisting baseline albedo parameterization (which does not). Validation tests reveal that daily variations of snow depth and snow surface albedo are more realistically simulated with the new parameterization. Reasonable perturbations in the assigned snow impurity concentrations, as inferred from the observational data, produce significant changes in snowpack depth and radiative flux interactions. These findings illustrate the importance of parameterizing the influence of snow impurities on the snow surface albedo for proper simulation of the life cycle of snow cover.

Published
2011
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73. Response of the Water Cycle of West Africa and Atlantic to Radiative Forcing by Saharan Dust

Author

Lau, K. M, Kim, Kyu-Myong, Sud, Yogesh C, and Walker, Gregory L

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

The responses of the atmospheric water cycle and climate of West Africa and the Atlantic to radiative forcing of Saharan dust are studied using the NASA finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), coupled to a mixed layer ocean. We find evidence in support of the "elevated heat pump" (EHP) mechanism that underlines the responses of the atmospheric water cycle to dust forcing as follow. During the boreal summer, as a result of large-scale atmospheric feed back triggered by absorbing dust aerosols, rainfall and cloudiness are enhanced over the West Africa/Easter Atlantic ITCZ, and suppressed over the West Atlantic and Caribbean. region. Shortwave radiation absorption by dust warms the atmosphere and cools the surface, while long wave has the opposite response. The elevated dust layer warms the air over Nest Africa and the eastern Atlantic. The condensation heating associated with the induced deep convection drives and maintains an anomalous large-scale east-west overturning circulation with rising motion over West Africa/eastern Atlantic, and sinking motion over the Caribbean region. The response also includes a strengthening of the West African monsoon, manifested in northward shift of the West Africa precipitation over land, increased low-level westerlies flow over West Africa at the southern edge of the dust layer, and a near surface energy fluxes, resulting in cooling of the Nest African land and the eastern Atlantic, and a warming in the West Atlantic and Caribbean. The EHP effect is most effective for moderate to highly absorbing dusts, and becomes minimized for reflecting dust with single scattering albedo at 0.95 or higher.

Published
2010

74. Premonsoon Aerosol Characterization and Radiative Effects Over the Indo-Gangetic Plains: Implications for Regional Climate Warming

Author

Gautam, Ritesh, Hsu, N. Christina, and Lau, K.-M

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

The Himalayas have a profound effect on the South Asian climate and the regional hydrological cycle, as it forms a barrier for the strong monsoon winds and serves as an elevated heat source, thus controlling the onset and distribution of precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon. Recent studies have suggested that radiative heating by absorbing aerosols, such as dust and black carbon over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and slopes of the Himalayas, may significantly accelerate the seasonal warming of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas-Tibetan Plateau (HKHT) and influence the subsequent evolution of the summer monsoon. This paper presents a detailed characterization of aerosols over the IGP and their radiative effects during the premonsoon season (April-May-June) when dust transport constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading, using ground radiometric and spaceborne observations. During the dust-laden period, there is a strong response of surface shortwave flux to aerosol absorption indicated by the diurnally averaged forcing efficiency of -70 W/sq m per unit optical depth. The simulated aerosol single-scattering albedo, constrained by surface flux and aerosol measurements, is estimated to be 0.89+/- 0.01 (at approx.550 nm) with diurnal mean surface and top-of-atmosphere forcing values ranging from -11 to -79.8 W/sq m and +1.4 to +12 W/sq m, respectively, for the premonsoon period. The model-simulated solar heating rate profile peaks in the lower troposphere with enhanced heating penetrating into the middle troposphere (5-6 km), caused by vertically extended aerosols over the IGP with peak altitude of approx.5 km as indicated by spaceborne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization observations. On a long-term climate scale, our analysis, on the basis of microwave satellite measurements of tropospheric temperatures from 1979 to 2007, indicates accelerated annual mean warming rates found over the Himalayan-Hindu Kush region (0.21 C/decade+/-0.08 C/decade) and underscores the potential role of enhanced aerosol solar absorption in the maximum warming localized over the western Himalayas (0.26 C/decade f 0.09 C/decade) that significantly exceed the entire HKHT and global warming rates. We believe the accelerated warming rates reported here are critical to both the South Asian summer monsoon and hydro-glaciological resource variability in the Himalayan-Hindu Kush snowpack and therefore to the densely populated downstream regions.

Published
2010
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75. Impact of Interactive Aerosol on the African Easterly Jet in the NASA GEOS-5 Global Forecasting System

Author

Reale, O, Lau, K. M, and da Silva, A

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

The real-time treatment of interactive realistically varying aerosol in a global operational forecasting system, as opposed to prescribed (fixed or climatologically varying) aerosols, is a very difficult challenge that only recently begins to be addressed. Experiment results from a recent version of the NASA GEOS-5 forecasting system, inclusive of interactive aerosol treatment, are presented in this work. Four sets of 30 5-day forecasts are initialized from a high quality set of analyses previously produced and documented to cover the period from 15 August to 16 September 2006, which corresponds to the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA) observing campaign. The four forecast sets are at two different horizontal resolutions and with and without interactive aerosol treatment. The net impact of aerosol, at times in which there is a strong dust outbreak, is a temperature increase at the dust level and decrease in the near-surface levels, in complete agreement with previous observational and modeling studies. Moreover, forecasts in which interactive aerosols are included depict an African Easterly (AEJ) at slightly higher elevation, and slightly displace northward, with respect to the forecasts in which aerosols are not include. The shift in the AEJ position goes in the direction of observations and agrees with previous results.

Published
2010

76. Comments on 'The 'Elevated Heat Pump' Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: 'Grounded' in Observations?' by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

Author

Lau, K. M and Kim, K. M

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

In their recent paper Nigam and Bollasina [2010, hereafter NB] claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Km 2006). We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from a lack of understanding and an out-of-context interpretation of the hypothesis. It was argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May as evidences against the EHP hypothesis. They cannot be more wrong in that argument. First, Lau and Kim [2006, hereafter, LKO6] never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are non-local in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. Third, the correlation maps shown in NB, including the increased convection over the Bay of Bengal is not the response to EHP but rather represents the large-scale circulation that provides the build-up of the aerosols, before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no wash-out by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols.

Published
2010

77. Preliminary Estimation of Black Carbon Deposition from Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid Data and Its Possible Impact on Snow Albedo Changes Over Himalayan Glaciers During the Pre-Monsoon Season

Author

Yasunari, T. J, Bonasoni, P, Laj, P, Fujita, K, Vuillermoz, E, Marinoni, A, Cristofanelli, P, Duchi, R, Tartari, G, and Lau, K.-M

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

The possible minimal range of reduction in snow surface albedo due to dry deposition of black carbon (BC) in the pre-monsoon period (March-May) was estimated as a lower bound together with the estimation of its accuracy, based on atmospheric observations at the Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid (NCO-P) sited at 5079 m a.s.l. in the Himalayan region. We estimated a total BC deposition rate of 2.89 g m-2 day-1 providing a total deposition of 266 micrograms/ square m for March-May at the site, based on a calculation with a minimal deposition velocity of 1.0 10(exp -4) m/s with atmospheric data of equivalent BC concentration. Main BC size at NCO-P site was determined as 103.1-669.8 nm by correlation analysis between equivalent BC concentration and particulate size distribution in the atmosphere. We also estimated BC deposition from the size distribution data and found that 8.7% of the estimated dry deposition corresponds to the estimated BC deposition from equivalent BC concentration data. If all the BC is deposited uniformly on the top 2-cm pure snow, the corresponding BC concentration is 26.0-68.2 microgram/kg assuming snow density variations of 195-512 kg/ cubic m of Yala Glacier close to NCO-P site. Such a concentration of BC in snow could result in 2.0-5.2% albedo reductions. From a simple numerical calculations and if assuming these albedo reductions continue throughout the year, this would lead to a runoff increases of 70-204 mm of water drainage equivalent of 11.6-33.9% of the annual discharge of a typical Tibetan glacier. Our estimates of BC concentration in snow surface for pre-monsoon season can be considered comparable to those at similar altitude in the Himalayan region, where glaciers and perpetual snow region starts in the vicinity of NCO-P. Our estimates from only BC are likely to represent a lower bound for snow albedo reductions, since a fixed slower deposition velocity was used and atmospheric wind and turbulence effects, snow aging, dust deposition, and snow albedo feedbacks were not considered. This study represents the first investigation about BC deposition on snow from atmospheric aerosol data in Himalayas and related albedo effect is especially the first track at the southern slope of Himalayas.

Published
2010

78. A Northward Shift of the North Atlantic Ocean Intertropical Convergence Zone in Response to Summertime Saharan Dust Outbreaks

Author

Wilcox, Eric M, Lau, K. M, and Kim, Kyu-Myong

Subjects
Geophysics
Abstract

The influence on the summertime North Atlantic Ocean inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) of Saharan dust outbreaks is explored using nine years of continuous satellite observations and atmospheric reanalysis products. During dust outbreak events rainfall along the ITCZ shifts northward by 1 to 4 degrees latitude. Dust outbreaks coincide with warmer lower-tropospheric temperatures compared to low dust conditions, which is attributable to advection of the warm Saharan Air Layer, enhanced subtropical subsidence, and radiative heating of dust. The enhanced positive meridional temperature gradient coincident with dust outbreaks is accompanied by an acceleration of the easterly winds on the n011h side of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ). The center of the positive vorticity region south of the AEJ moves north drawing the center of low-level convergence and ITCZ rainfall northward with it. The enhanced precipitation on the north side of the ITCZ occurs in spite of widespread sea surface temperature cooling north of the ITCZ owing to reduced surface solar insolation by dust scattering.

Published
2010
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81. A GCM Study of Responses of the Atmospheric Water Cycle of West Africa and the Atlantic to Saharan Dust Radiative Forcing

Author

Lau, K. M, Kim, K. M, Sud, Y. C, and Walker, G. K

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

The responses of the atmospheric water cycle and climate of West Africa and the Atlantic to radiative forcing of Saharan dust are studied using the NASA finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), coupled to a mixed layer ocean. We find evidence of an "elevated heat pump" (EHP) mechanism that underlines the responses of the atmospheric water cycle to dust forcing as follow. During the boreal summerr, as a result of large-scale atmospheric feedback triggered by absorbing dust aerosols, rainfall and cloudiness are ehanIed over the West Africa/Eastern Atlantic ITCZ, and suppressed over the West Atlantic and Caribbean region. Shortwave radiation absorption by dust warms the atmosphere and cools the surface, while longwave has the opposite response. The elevated dust layer warms the air over West Africa and the eastern Atlantic. As the warm air rises, it spawns a large-scale onshore flow carrying the moist air from the eastern Atlantic and the Gulf of Guinea. The onshore flow in turn enhances the deep convection over West Africa land, and the eastern Atlantic. The condensation heating associated with the ensuing deep convection drives and maintains an anomalous large-scale east-west overturning circulation with rising motion over West Africa/eastern Atlantic, and sinking motion over the Caribbean region. The response also includes a strengthening of the West African monsoon, manifested in a northward shift of the West Africa precipitation over land, increased low-level westerlies flow over West Africa at the southern edge of the dust layer, and a near surface westerly jet underneath the dust layer overr the Sahara. The dust radiative forcing also leads to significant changes in surface energy fluxes, resulting in cooling of the West African land and the eastern Atlantic, and warming in the West Atlantic and Caribbean. The EHP effect is most effective for moderate to highly absorbing dusts, and becomes minimized for reflecting dust with single scattering albedo at0.95 or higher.

Published
2009

83. Radiative-convective processes in simulated diurnal variations of tropical oceanic convection

Author

Sui, C.-H., Li, X., and Lau, K.-M.

Subjects
Meteorology -- Diurnal variation, Convection (Meteorology) -- Research, Ocean-atmosphere interaction -- Research, Radiative transfer -- Research, Earth sciences, Science and technology
Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the diurnal variation of tropical oceanic convection and its associated energy cycle as simulated by an anelastic cumulus ensemble model. The model includes subgrid turbulence, cloud microphysics, and radiative transfer processes. In two experiments designed to simulate the diurnal cycles in large-scale disturbed (A1) and undisturbed conditions (A4) over the tropical western Pacific warm pool, the model produces diurnal variations that are in general agreement with observations. In A1, a time-independent SST and mean ascending motion are prescribed in the model. The model generates a diurnal cycle with positive (negative) rainfall anomalies during the night (day), and the maximum (minimum) rainfall near 0200 (1300-1400) local time. In A4, a diurnally varying SST is prescribed in the model and the domain-averaged vertical velocity is constrained to be zero. The simulated diurnal variations still have a nocturnal rainfall maximum but with a weaker magnitude and a secondary peak in the afternoon. The model is then used to investigate the radiative effects of clouds that has been suggested as the cause of the nocturnal rainfall maximum by many studies. Two experiments (A2 and A3) are performed with the model, in which a time-independent SST is prescribed and the domain-averaged vertical velocity is constrained to be zero. The only difference between the two experiments is that the cloud-radiation interaction is suppressed in A3. The results show that despite the significant difference in total cloudiness/rainfall due to the difference in mean vertical motion between A2 and A1, and the difference in cloud-radiative forcing between A2 and A3, the simulated diurnal cycles in all three experiments show a dominant nocturnal rainfall maximum. The results support the suggestion by Sui et al. that the nocturnal rainfall maximum is related to more (less) available precipitable water in the night (day) due to the diurnal radiative cooling/heating cycle.

Published
1998

84. Have Tropical Cyclones been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

Author

Lau, K.-M, Zhou, Y. P, and Wu, H.-T

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data ; and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-gain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events, and 21% of rain amount in WN.P. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for bout periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slightly more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In. WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the loner term relationship between TC rain and warm pool area is strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Published
2008
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85. Effects of Doubled CO2 on Tropical Sea-Surface Temperature (SSTs) for Onset of Deep Convection and Maximum SST-GCM Simulations Based Inferences

Author

Sud, Y. C, Walker, G. K, Zhou, Y. P, Schmidt, Gavin A, Lau, K. M, and Cahalan, R. F

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

A primary concern of CO2-induced warming is the associated rise of tropical (10S-10N) seasurface temperatures (SSTs). GISS Model-E was used to produce two sets of simulations-one with the present-day and one with doubled CO2 in the atmosphere. The intrinsic usefulness of model guidance in the tropics was confirmed when the model simulated realistic convective coupling between SSTs and atmospheric soundings and that the simulated-data correlations between SSTs and 300 hPa moiststatic energies were found to be similar to the observed. Model predicted SST limits: (i) one for the onset of deep convection and (ii) one for maximum SST, increased in the doubled C02 case. Changes in cloud heights, cloud frequencies, and cloud mass-fractions showed that convective-cloud changes increased the SSTs, while warmer mixed-layer of the doubled CO2 contained approximately 10% more water vapor; clearly that would be conducive to more intense storms and hurricanes.

Published
2008
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86. Diurnal variations in tropical oceanic cumulus convection during TOGA COARE

Author

Sui, C.-H., Lau, K.-M., Takayabu, Y.N., and Short, D.A.

Subjects
Pacific Area -- Environmental aspects, Meteorology -- Diurnal variation, Convection (Meteorology) -- Observations, Earth sciences, Science and technology
Abstract

Diurnal variations in atmospheric convection, dynamic/thermodynamic fields, and heat/moisture budgets over the equatorial Pacific warm pool region are analyzed based on data collected from different observation platforms during the Intensive Observation Period of the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). Results reveal that the diurnal variations in rainfall/convection over the TOGA COARE region can be classified into three distinct stages: warm morning cumulus, afternoon convective showers, and nocturnal convective systems. Afternoon rainfall comes mostly from convective cells, but the nocturnal rainfall is derived from deeper convective cells and large areas of stratiform clouds. Results further show that afternoon convective showers are more evident in the large-scale undisturbed periods when the diurnal SST cycle is strong, but the nocturnal convective systems and morning cumulus are more enhanced in the disturbed periods when more moisture is available. The primary cause of the nocturnal rainfall maximum is suggested to be associated with more (less) available precipitable water in the night (day) due to the diurnal radiative cooling/heating cycle and the resultant change in tropospheric relative humidity.

Published
1997

87. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Vos, T, Lim, S, Abbafati, C, Abbas, K, Abbasi, M, Abbasifard, M, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abolhassani, H, Aboyans, V, Abrams, E, Abreu, L, Abrigo, M, Abu-Raddad, L, Abushouk, A, Acebedo, A, Ackerman, I, Adabi, M, Adamu, A, Adebayo, O, Adekanmbi, V, Adelson, J, Adetokunboh, O, Adham, D, Afshari, M, Afshin, A, Agardh, E, Agarwal, G, Agesa, K, Aghaali, M, Aghamir, S, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmadpour, E, Akalu, T, Akinyemi, R, Akinyemiju, T, Akombi, B, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, N, Alam, S, Alam, T, Alanzi, T, Albertson, S, Alcalde-Rabanal, J, Alema, N, Ali, M, Ali, S, Alicandro, G, Alijanzadeh, M, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Aljunid, S, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Alonso, J, Al-Raddadi, R, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alvis-Zakzuk, N, Amini, S, Amini-Rarani, M, Aminorroaya, A, Amiri, F, Amit, A, Amugsi, D, Amul, G, Anderlini, D, Andrei, C, Andrei, T, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Ansari, I, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, C, Antony, C, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aravkin, A, Ariani, F, Arnlov, J, Aryal, K, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asadi-Pooya, A, Asghari, B, Ashbaugh, C, Atnafu, D, Atre, S, Ausloos, F, Ausloos, M, Ayala Quintanilla, B, Ayano, G, Ayanore, M, Aynalem, Y, Azari, S, Azarian, G, Azene, Z, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Bagherzadeh, M, Bakhshaei, M, Bakhtiari, A, Balakrishnan, S, Balalla, S, Balassyano, S, Banach, M, Banik, P, Bannick, M, Bante, A, Baraki, A, Barboza, M, Barker-Collo, S, Barthelemy, C, Barua, L, Barzegar, A, Basu, S, Baune, B, Bayati, M, Bazmandegan, G, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bejot, Y, Bello, A, Bender, R, Bennett, D, Bennitt, F, Bensenor, I, Benziger, C, Berhe, K, Bernabe, E, Bertolacci, G, Bhageerathy, R, Bhala, N, Bhandari, D, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, Z, Bibi, S, Biehl, M, Bikbov, B, Bin Sayeed, M, Biondi, A, Birihane, B, Bisanzio, D, Bisignano, C, Biswas, R, Bohlouli, S, Bohluli, M, Bolla, S, Boloor, A, Boon-Dooley, A, Borges, G, Borzi, A, Bourne, R, Brady, O, Brauer, M, Brayne, C, Breitborde, N, Brenner, H, Briant, P, Briggs, A, Briko, N, Britton, G, Bryazka, D, Buchbinder, R, Bumgarner, B, Busse, R, Butt, Z, Caetano dos Santos, F, Camera, L, Campos-Nonato, I, Car, J, Cardenas, R, Carreras, G, Carrero, J, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, C, Castelpietra, G, Castle, C, Castro, F, Catala-Lopez, F, Causey, K, Cederroth, C, Cercy, K, Cerin, E, Chandan, J, Chang, A, Charlson, F, Chattu, V, Chaturvedi, S, Chimed-Ochir, O, Chin, K, Cho, D, Christensen, H, Chu, D, Chung, M, Cicuttini, F, Ciobanu, L, Cirillo, M, Collins, E, Compton, K, Conti, S, Cortesi, P, Costa, V, Cousin, E, Cowden, R, Cowie, B, Cromwell, E, Cross, D, Crowe, C, Cruz, J, Cunningham, M, Dahlawi, S, Damiani, G, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Darwesh, A, Daryani, A, Das, J, Das Gupta, R, das Neves, J, Davila-Cervantes, C, Davletov, K, De Leo, D, Dean, F, Decleene, N, Deen, A, Degenhardt, L, 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T., Majeed A., Maled V., Maleki S., Malekzadeh R., Malta D. C., Mamun A. A., Manafi A., Manafi N., Manguerra H., Mansouri B., Mansournia M. A., Mantilla Herrera A. M., Maravilla J. C., Marks A., Martins-Melo F. R., Martopullo I., Masoumi S. Z., Massano J., Massenburg B. B., Mathur M. R., Maulik P. K., McAlinden C., McGrath J. J., McKee M., Mehndiratta M. M., Mehri F., Mehta K. M., Meitei W. B., Memiah P. T. N., Mendoza W., Menezes R. G., Mengesha E. W., Mengesha M. B., Mereke A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T. J., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Michalek I. M., Mihretie K. M., Miller T. R., Mills E. J., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E. M., Mirzaei H., Mirzaei M., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Misganaw A. T., Mithra P., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohamadi E., Mohammad D. K., Mohammad Y., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadpourhodki R., Mohammed S., Mokdad A. H., Molokhia M., Momen N. C., Monasta L., Mondello S., Mooney M. D., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Morales L., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morrison S. D., Mosser J. F., Mouodi S., Mousavi S. M., Mousavi Khaneghah A., Mueller U. O., Munro S. B., Muriithi M. K., Musa K. I., Muthupandian S., Naderi M., Nagarajan A. J., Nagel G., Naghshtabrizi B., Nair S., Nandi A. K., Nangia V., Nansseu J. R., Nayak V. C., Nazari J., Negoi I., Negoi R. I., Netsere H. B. N., Ngunjiri J. W., Nguyen C. T., Nguyen J., Nguyen M., Nichols E., Nigatu D., Nigatu Y. T., Nikbakhsh R., Nixon M. R., Nnaji C. A., Nomura S., Norrving B., Noubiap J. J., Nowak C., Nunez-Samudio V., Otoiu A., Oancea B., Odell C. M., Ogbo F. A., Oh I. -H., Okunga E. W., Oladnabi M., Olagunju A. T., Olusanya B. O., Olusanya J. O., Oluwasanu M. M., Omar Bali A., Omer M. O., Ong K. L., Onwujekwe O. E., Orji A. U., Orpana H. M., Ortiz A., Ostroff S. M., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S. S., Overland S., Owolabi M. 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Abstract

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw value

Published
2020

88. Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Murray, C, Abbafati, C, Abbas, K, Abbasi, M, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abd-Allah, F, Abdollahi, M, Abedi, P, Abedi, A, Abolhassani, H, Aboyans, V, Abreu, L, Abrigo, M, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abu Haimed, A, Abushouk, A, Acebedo, A, Ackerman, I, Adabi, M, Adamu, A, Adebayo, O, Adelson, J, Adetokunboh, O, Afarideh, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agrawal, A, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, M, Aji, B, Akinyemiju, T, Akombi, B, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alanezi, F, Alanzi, T, Albertson, S, Alemu, B, Alemu, Y, Alhabib, K, Ali, M, Ali, S, Alicandro, G, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, S, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Almadi, M, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, H, Almulhim, A, Alonso, J, Al-Raddadi, R, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, B, Amare, A, Amini, S, Amit, A, Amugsi, D, Anbesu, E, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Anderson, J, Andrei, T, Andrei, C, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antonio, C, Antony, C, Anvari, D, Appiah, S, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aravkin, A, Arba, A, Aripov, T, Arnlov, J, 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R., Iqbal U., Irvani S. S. N., Islam M. M., Islam S. M. S., Iso H., Iwu C. C. D., Jaafari J., Jahagirdar D., Jahani M. A., Jakovljevic M., Jalali A., Jalilian F., Janodia M. D., Javaheri T., Jenabi E., Jha R. P., Jha V., Ji J. S., Johnson C. O., Jonas J. B., Jurisson M., Kabir A., Kabir Z., Kalani R., Kalankesh L. R., Kalhor R., Kanchan T., Kapoor N., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karim M. A., Karimi S. E., Kasa A. S., Kassebaum N. J., Kayode G. A., Kazemi Karyani A., Keiyoro P., Khalid N., Khammarnia M., Khan M., Khan E. A., Khan G., Khatab K., Khater M. M., Khatib M. N., Khazaie H., Khoja A. T., Khubchandani J., Kianipour N., Kieling C., Kim Y. -E., Kim Y. J., Kimokoti R. W., Kinfu Y., Kisa S., Kisa A., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Kneib C. J., Knight M., Koh D. S. Q., Komaki H., Kopec J. A., Kosen S., Kotlo A., Koul P. A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Krohn K. J., KS S., Kumar G. A., Kumar N., Kumar M., Kurmi O. P., Kusuma D., Kyu H. H., Lacey B., Lal D. K., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lan Q., Landires I., Larson H. J., Lasrado S., Lau K. M. -M., Lauriola P., La Vecchia C., Leal L. F., Leasher J. L., Ledesma J. R., Lee P. H., Lee S. W. H., Leonardi M., Leung J., Li B., Li S., Lim L. -L., Lin R. -T., Listl S., Liu X., Liu Y., Logroscino G., Lopez J. C. F., Lorkowski S., Lozano R., Lu A., Lugo A., Lunevicius R., Lyons R. A., Ma J., Machado D. B., Maddison E. R., Mahasha P. W., Mahmoudi M., Majeed A., Maled V., Maleki S., Maleki A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D. C., Mamun A. A., Manguerra H., Mansouri B., Mansournia M. A., Mantilla Herrera A. M., Martini S., Martins-Melo F. R., Martopullo I., Masoumi S. Z., Massenburg B. B., Mathur M. R., Maulik P. K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J. J., McKee M., Mehndiratta M. M., Mehri F., Mehta K. M., Melese A., Memish Z. A., Mendoza W., Menezes R. G., Mengesha E. W., Meretoja T. J., Meretoja A., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Michalek I. M., Milne G. J., Miri M., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E. M., Mirzaei H., Mirzaei M., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Misganaw A. T., Moazen B., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohajer B., Mohamad O., Mohammad Y., Mohammad D. K., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A. H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Mooney M. D., Moradi M., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morrison S. D., Mosapour A., Mosser J. F., Mousavi S. M., Mousavi Khaneghah A., Mueller U. O., Mullany E. C., Musa K. I., Naderi M., Nagarajan A. J., Naghavi M., Naghshtabrizi B., Naimzada M. D., Najafi F., Naldi L., Nayak V. C., Nazari J., Ndejjo R., Negoi I., Negoi R. I., Netsere H. B. N., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ngunjiri J. W., Nguyen D. N., Nguyen H. L. T., Nichols E., Nigatu Y. T., Nikbakhsh R., Nixon M. R., Nnaji C. A., Nomura S., Noubiap J. J., Nowak C., Nsoesie E. O., Nunez-Samudio V., Ogbo F. A., Oghenetega O. B., Okunga E. W., Oladnabi M., Olagunju A. T., Olusanya J. O., Olusanya B. O., Omar Bali A., Omer M. O., Ong S., Ong K. L., Onwujekwe O. E., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ostroff S. M., Otoiu A., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S. S., Overland S., Owolabi M. O., P A M., Padubidri J. R., Pakhale S., Pakshir K., Palladino R., Pana A., Panda-Jonas S., Parmar P. G. K., Pathak M., Patton G. C., Pazoki Toroudi H., Peden A. E., Pepito V. C. F., Peprah E. K., Pereira D. M., Pereira A., Pereira J., Perico N., Pescarini J. M., Pham H. Q., Phillips M. R., Piccinelli C., Pilz T. M., Pinheiro M., Piradov M. A., Pirsaheb M., Pishgar F., Pond C. D., Postma M. J., Pottoo F. H., Pourjafar H., Pourmalek F., Prada S. I., Prasad N., Pribadi D. R. A., Pupillo E., Quazi Syed Z., Rabiee N., Rabiee M., Radfar A., Rafiee A., Raggi A., Rahman M. H. U., Rahman M. A., Ramezanzadeh K., Ranabhat C. L., Ranta A., Rao S. J., Rao P. C., Rasella D., Rashedi V., Rastogi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D. L., Rawal L., Rawassizadeh R., Rawat R., Razo C., Regassa L. D., Reitsma M. B., Remuzzi G., Renjith V., Renzaho A. M. N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei N., Rezai M. S., Rezapour A., Rhinehart P. -A., Riahi S. M., Ribeiro A. L. P., Ribeiro D. C., Rickard J., Roever L., Romoli M., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rubagotti E., Rumisha S. F., Rwegerera G. M., Saadatagah S., Sabour S., Sachdev P. S., Saddik B., Sadeghi M., Sadeghi E., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M. A., Sajadi S. M., Salem M. R. R., Salem H., Salimzadeh H., Salomon J. A., Salz I., Samad Z., Samadi Kafil H., Samy A. M., Sanabria J., Santomauro D. F., Santric-Milicevic M. M., Saraswathy S. Y. I., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Sarveazad A., Sathian B., Sathish T., Sattin D., Schaeffer L. E., Schiavolin S., Schmidt M. I., Schutte A. E., Schwebel D. C., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S. G., Sha F., Shafaat O., Shahabi S., Shaheen A. A., Shaikh M. A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi K., Sharara F., Sheikh A., Shetty B. S. K., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Shin M. -J., Shin J. I., Shiri R., Shivakumar K. M., Shrime M. G., Shuval K., Sigfusdottir I. D., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silva D. A. S., Silva J. P., Simonetti B., Singh J. A., Singh P., Singh A., Sinha D. N., Skryabin V. Y., Sliwa K., Smith E. U. R., Soheili A., Soltani S., Somefun O. D., Sorensen R. J. D., Soriano J. B., Sorrie M. B., Soyiri I. N., Sreeramareddy C. T., Sripada K., Stanaway J. D., Stefan S. C., Stein D. J., Steiner C., Stokes M. A., Stranges S., Suchdev P. S., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M. B., Suliankatchi Abdulkader R., Sulo G., Swope C. B., Sylte D. O., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tadakamadla S. K., Taddele B. W., Taherkhani A., Tahir Z., Tamiru A. T., Tang M., Tareque M. I., Tefera Y. G. G., Tela F. G. G., Temsah M. -H., Terrason S., Thakur B., Thankappan K. R., Thapar R., Thomas N., Titova M. V., Tlou B., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Torre A. E., Touvier M., Tovani-Palone M. R. R., Tran B. X., Travillian R., Uddin R., Ullah I., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Vacante M., Vaicekonyte R., Valdez P. R., Valli A., Vasankari T. J., Vasseghian Y., Venketasubramanian N., Vidale S., Violante F. S., Vlassov V., Vollset S. E., Vongpradith A., Vu G. T., W/hawariat F. G., Waheed Y., Wamai R. G., Wang F., Wang H., Wang J., Wang Y., Wang Y. -P., Watson A., Wei J., Weintraub R. G., Weiss J., Welay F. T., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H. A., Wiangkham T., Wickramasinghe N. D., Wilner L. B., Wojtyniak B., Wolfe C. D. A., Wondmeneh T. G., Wu A. -M., Wu C., Wulf Hanson S., Wunrow H. Y., Xie Y., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S. H., Yamagishi K., Yaya S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Yearwood J. A., Yeheyis T. Y., Yeshitila Y. G., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yoon S. -J., Younis M. Z., Younker T. P., Yousefinezhadi T., Yu C., Yu Y., Yuce D., Yusefzadeh H., Zaidi S. S., Zaman S. B., Zamanian M., Zangeneh A., Zarafshan H., Zastrozhin M. S., Zewdie K. A., Zhang Z. -J., Zhang J., Zhang Y., Zhao X. -J. G., Zhao Y., Zheleva B., Zheng P., Zhu C., Ziapour A., Zimsen S. R. M., Lopez A. D., Vos T., and Lim S. S.

Abstract

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

Published
2020

89. Anomalies in the South American Monsoon Induced by Aerosols

Author

Lau, K. M. William and Kyu-Mong, Kim

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

We have investigated the direct effects of aerosols on the water cycle of the South American monsoon using the NASA finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM). Global aerosol forcings are computed from radiative transfer functions derived from global distributions of five species of aerosols, i.e., dust, black carbon, organic carbon, sulphate and sea salt from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) model. Comparing fvGCM experiments without aerosol forcing, and with different combinations of aerosol forcing, we evaluate the impacts of aerosol direct heating on the onset, maintenance and evolution of the South American summer monsoon. We find that during the pre-monsoon season (September-October-November) Saharan dust contribute to heating of the atmosphere over the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic/Africa region through the elevated heat pump mechanism. The heating generates an anomalous Walker circulation with sinking motion, and low level northeasterlies over the Caribbean and northwestern South America. The low level flow is blocked by the Andes, and turn south and southeastward, increasing the low level jet (LLJ) along the eastern slope of the Andes. The increased LLJ transports more moisture from the Atlantic and the Amazon, enhancing the moisture convergence over subtropical land regions of South America. The moisture convergence was further accelerated by atmospheric heating by biomass burning over the Amazon. The net results of the dust and biomass heating are: a) an advance of the monsoon rainy season, b) an enhanced LLJ and c) a shifting the South America monsoon land precipitation equatorward, with increased rain over southern Brazil and reduced rain over the La Plata basin. ramifications of this elevated heating heat pump mechanism in aerosol monsoon water cycle on climate variability and change will be discussed. The ramifications of this "elevated heating heat pump" mechanism in aerosol monsoom water cycle on climate variability and change will be discussed.

Published
2007

90. Tropical Cyclones Feed More Heavy Rain in a Warmer Climate

Author

Lau, K.-M, Zhou, Y. P, and Wu, H.-T

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

The possible linkage of tropical cyclones (TC) to global warming is a hotly debated scientific topic, with immense societal impacts. Most of the debate has been focused on the issue of uncertainty in the use of non-research quality data for long-term trend analyses, especially with regard to TC intensity provided by TC forecasting centers. On the other hand, it is well known that TCs are associated with heavy rain during the processes of genesis and intensification, and that there are growing evidences that rainfall characteristics (not total rainfall) are most likely to be affected by global warming. Yet, satellite rainfall data have not been exploited in any recent studies of linkage between tropical cyclones (TC) and global warming. This is mostly due to the large uncertainties associated with detection of long-term trend in satellite rainfall estimates over the ocean. This problem, as we demonstrate in this paper, can be alleviated by examining rainfall distribution, rather than rainfall total. This paper is the first to use research-quality, satellite-derived rainfall from TRMM and GPCP over the tropical oceans to estimate shift in rainfall distribution during the TC season, and its relationships with TCs, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the two major ocean basins, the northern Atlantic and the northern Pacific for 1979-2005. From the rainfall distribution, we derive the TC contributions to rainfall in various extreme rainfall categories as a function to time. Our results show a definitive trend indicating that TCs are contributing increasingly to heavier rain events, i.e., intense TC's are more frequent in the last 27 years. The TC contribution to top 5% heavy rain has nearly doubled in the last two decades in the North Atlantic, and has increased by about 10% in the North Pacific. The different rate of increase in TC contribution to heavy rain may be related to the different rates of different rate of expansion of the warm pool (SST >2S0 C) area in the two oceans.

Published
2007

91. Cooling of the North Atlantic by Saharan Dust

Author

Lau, K. M and Kim, K. M

Subjects
Earth Resources And Remote Sensing
Abstract

Using aerosol optical depth, sea surface temperature, top-of-the-atmosphere solar radiation flux, and oceanic mixed-layer depth from diverse data sources that include NASA satellites, NCEP reanalysis, in situ observations, as well as long-term dust records from Barbados, we examine the possible relationships between Saharan dust and Atlantic sea surface temperature. Results show that the estimated anomalous cooling pattern of the Atlantic during June 2006 relative to June 2005 due to attenuation of surface solar radiation by Saharan dust remarkably resemble observations, accounting for approximately 30-40% of the observed change in sea surface temperature. Historical data analysis show that there is a robust negative correlation between atmospheric dust loading and Atlantic SST consistent with the notion that increased (decreased) Saharan dust is associated with cooling (warming) of the Atlantic during the early hurricane season (July- August-September).

Published
2007

93. Observational Evidence of Impacts of Aerosols on Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of the Asian Monsoon

Author

Lau, K.-M, Kim, K.-M, and Hsu, N. C

Subjects
Geophysics
Abstract

Observational evidences are presented showing that the Indian subcontinent and surrounding regions are subject to heavy loading of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), with strong seasonality closely linked to the monsoon annual rainfall cycle. Increased loading of absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic Plain in April-May is associated with a) increased heating of the upper troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau, b) an advance of the monsoon rainy season, and c) subsequent enhancement of monsoon rainfall over the South Asia subcontinent, and reduction over East Asia. Also presented are radiative transfer calculations showing how differential solar absorption by aerosols over bright surface (desert or snow cover land) compared to dark surface (vegetated land and ocean), may be instrumental in triggering an aerosol-monsoon large-scale circulation and water cycle feedback, consistent with the elevated heat pump hypothesis (Lau et al. 2006).

Published
2006

94. Detecting Trends in Tropical Rainfall Characteristics, 1979-2003

Author

Lau, K. M and Wu, H. T

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

From analyses of blended space-based and ground-based global rainfall data, we found increasing trends in the occurrence of extreme heavy and light rain events, coupled to a decreasing trend in moderate rain events in the tropics during 1979-2003. The trends are consistent with a shift in the large-scale circulation associated with a) a relatively uniform increase in warm rain over the tropical oceans, b) enhanced ice-phase rain over the near-equatorial oceans, and c) reduced mixed-phase rain over the tropical ocean and land regions. Due to the large compensation among different rain categories, the total tropical rainfall trend remained undetectable.

Published
2006

95. Climate signal detection using wavelet transform: how to make a time series sing

Author

Lau, K.-M. and Weng, Hengyi

Subjects
Climatology -- Methods, Time-series analysis -- Methods, Climatic changes -- Analysis, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

In this paper, the application of the wavelet transform (WT) to climate time series analyses is introduced. A tutorial description of the basic concept of WT, compared with similar concepts used in music, is also provided. Using an analogy between WT representation of a time series and a music score, the authors illustrate the importance of local versus global information in the time-frequency localization of climate signals. Examples of WT applied to climate data analysis are demonstrated using analytic signals as well as real climate time series. Results of WT applied to two climate time series - that is, a proxy paleoclimate time series with a 2.5-Myr deep-sea sediment record of [[Delta].sup.18]O and a 140-yr monthly record of Northern Hemisphere surface temperature - are presented. The former shows the presence of a 40-kyr and a 100-kyr oscillation and an abrupt transition in the oscillation regime at 0.7 Myr before the present, consistent with previous studies. The latter possesses a myriad of oscillatory modes from interannual (2-5 yr), interdecadal (10-12 yr, 20-25 yr, and 40-60 yr), and century ([approximately]180 yr) scales at different periods of the data record. In spite of the large difference in timescales, common features in time-frequency characteristics of these two time series have been identified. These features suggest that the variations of the earth's climate are consistent with those exhibited by a nonlinear dynamical system under external forcings.

Published
1995

96. Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing During Boreal Spring

Author

Kim, Maeng-Ki, Lau, K. M, Chin, Mian, Kim, Kyu-Myong, Sud, Y. C, and Walker, Greg K

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on simulations using the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of clouds in Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS). The aerosol loading are prescribed from three-dimensional monthly distribution of tropospheric aerosols viz., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from output of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor are computed as wavelength-dependent radiative forcing in the radiative transfer scheme of the fvGCM, and as a function of the aerosol loading and ambient relative humidity. We find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excites a planetary scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Additionally, atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over Northern Africa, and Middle East), and black carbon (over South-East Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east-west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea, and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentration are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations.

Published
2005

98. Wavelets, period doubling, and time-frequency localization with application to organization of convection over the Tropical Western Pacific

Author

Weng, Hengyi and Lau, K.-M.

Subjects
Convection (Meteorology) -- Research, Tropics -- Natural history, Meteorological research -- Analysis, Earth sciences, Science and technology
Abstract

In this paper, preliminary results in using orthogonal and continuous wavelet transform (WT) to identify period doubling and time-frequency localization in both synthetic and real data are presented. First, the Haar WT is applied to synthetic time series derived from a simple nonlinear dynamical system - a first-order quadratic difference equation. Second, the complex Morlet WT is use to study the time-frequency localization of tropical convection based on a high-resolution Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite infrared (IR) radiance dataset. The Haar WT of the synthetic time series indicates the presence and distinct separation of multiple frequencies in a period-doubling sequence. The period-doubling process generates a multiplicity of intermediate frequencies, which are manifested in the nonuniformity in time with respect to the phase of oscillations in the lower frequencies. Wavelet transform also enables the detection of extremely weak signals in higher-order subharmonics resulting from the period-doubling bifurcations. These signals are either undetected or considered statistically insignificant by traditional Fourier analysis. The Morlet WT of the IR radiance dataset indicates the presence of multiple timescales, which are localized in both frequency and time. There are two regimes in the variation of IR radiance, corresponding to the wet and dry periods. Multiple timescales, ranging from semidiurnal, diurnal, synoptic, to intraseasonal with embedding structures, are active in the wet regime. In particular, synoptic variability is more prominent during the wet phase of an intensive intraseasonal cycle. These are not only consistent with, but also sho more details than, previous findings by using other techniques. The phase-locking relationships among the oscillations with different time-scales suggest that both synoptic and intraseasonal variations may be mixed oscillations due to the interaction of self-excited oscillations in the tropica atmosphere and external forcings such as annual and diurnal solar radiation variations. Both examples show that WT is a powerful tool for analysis of phenomena involving multiscale interactions that exhibit localization in both frequency and time. A discussion on the caveats in the use of WT in geophysical data analysis is also presented.

Published
1994

99. Principal modes of atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with global angular momentum fluctuations

Author

Kang, In-Sik and Lau, K.-M.

Subjects
Atmospheric circulation -- Research, Angular momentum -- Research, Earth sciences, Science and technology
Abstract

This paper provides a description of the variability of global atmospheric angular momentum (GAM) and its relationship with principal modes of three-dimensional atmospheric circulation anomalies. The data used are 5-day mean global wind fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts initialized dataset for 1980-1989. Significant seasonal variation of GAM is observed with maxima in April and November and a minimum during late July. The amplitude of the annual cycle is largest in the upper troposphere and decreases toward the surface. Although the lower tropospheric contribution to the total angular momentum is relatively small, its annual cycle is out of phase with those of the upper atmosphere and GAM. Also identified is a distinct semiannual component, with double peaks appearing in April and November. This signal is most noticeable in the upper troposphere above the 300-mb level. The principal modes of zonal-mean angular momentum and meridional circulation anomalies and their coupled modes are obtained by using empirical orthogonal function analysis and singular value decomposition. It is shown that the leading modes of the angular momentum and meridional circulation are coupled with each other and are responsible for much of the variability in GAM. The coupled modes represent fluctuations of upper-level subtropical zonal flow, which are linked to the modulation of Hadley circulation intensity in both hemispheres. It is found that GAM is highly correlated with the first eigenvector of upper-level streamfunction anomalies, which consists of a superrotational flow in the tropics and subtropics, except over the central Pacific where a 'blocked' flow with two subtropical anticyclonic circulation cells straddling the equator is found. Much of the blocked flow is due to the establishment of dipole anomalies in the velocity potential with centers over the central Pacific and the Maritime Continent on the interannual time scale. On the intraseasonal time scale, GAM fluctuation is dominated by superrotational flow in the tropics, with the blocked flow present to a much lesser extent. The associated velocity potential anomaly has a weak dipole structure with centers over the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific. The implications of the above results on the total angular momentum balance of the earth-atmosphere system are also discussed.

Published
1994

100. Multiscale low-frequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere

Author

Lau, K.-M., Sheu, P.-J., and Kang, I.-S.

Subjects
Atmospheric circulation -- Research, Earth sciences, Science and technology
Abstract

In this paper, fundamental multiscale circulation modes in the global atmosphere are identified with the objective of providing better understanding of atmospheric low-frequency variabilities over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. With the use of a combination of rotated principal component technique, singular spectrum analysis, and phase space portraits, three categories of basic multiscale modes in the atmosphere are found. The first is the interannual mode (IAM), which is dominated by time scales longer than a year and can be attributed to heating and circulation anomalies associated with the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere, in particular the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The second is a set of tropical intraseasonal modes consisting of three separate multiscale patterns (ISO-1,-2, -3) related to tropical heating that can be identified with the different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), including its teleconnection to the extratropics. The ISO spatial and temporal patterns suggest that the extratropical wave train in the North Pacific and North America is related to heating over the Maritime Continent and that the evolution of the MJO around the equator may require forcing from the extratropics spawning convection over the Indian Ocean. The third category represents extratropical intraseasonal oscillations arising from internal dynamics of the basic-state circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two distinct circulation modes with multiple frequencies in this category: the Pacific/North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic/Eurasia (NAE). In the Southern Hemisphere, two phase-locked modes (PSA-1 and PSA-2) are found depicting an eastward propagating wave train from eastern Australia, via the Pacific South America to the South Atlantic. The extratropical modes exhibit temporal characteristics such as phase locking and harmonic oscillations possibly associated with quadratically nonlinear dynamical systems. Additionally, the observed monthly and seasonal anomalies arise from a complex interplay of the various multiscale low-frequency modes. The relative dominance of the different modes varies widely from month to month and from year to year. On the monthly time scale, while one or two mechanisms may dominate in one year, no single mechanism seems to dominate for all years. There are indications that when the IAM, that is, ENSO heating patterns are strong, the extratropical modes may be suppressed and vice versa. For the seasonal mean, the interannual mode tends to dominate and the contribution from the PNA remains quite significant.

Published
1994

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