51. Heat--health warning systems: a comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days
- Author
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Hajat, Shakoor, Sheridan, Scott C., Allen, Michael J., Pascal, Mathilde, Laaidi, Karine, Yagouti, Abderrahmane, Bickis, Ugis, Tobias, Aurelio, Bourque, Denis, Armstrong, Ben G., and Kosatsky, Tom
- Subjects
Heat stress disorders -- Patient outcomes ,Heat stress disorders -- Research ,Mortality -- Risk factors ,Mortality -- Research ,Government ,Health care industry - Abstract
Objectives. We compared the ability of several heat--health warning systems to predict days of heat-associated mortality using common data sets. Methods. Heat-health warning systems initiate emergency public health interventions once forecasts have identified weather conditions to breach predetermined trigger levels. We examined 4 commonly used trigger-setting approaches: (1) synoptic classification, (2) epidemiologic assessment of the temperature--mortality relationship, (3) temperature--humidity index, and (4) physiologic classification. We applied each approach in Chicago, Illinois; London, United Kingdom; Madrid, Spain; and Montreal, Canada, to identify days expected to be associated with the highest heat-related mortality. Results. We found little agreement across the approaches in which days were identified as most dangerous. In general, days identified by temperature-mortality assessment were associated with the highest excess mortality. Conclusions. Triggering of alert days and ultimately the initiation of emergency responses by a heat-health warning system varies significantly across approaches adopted to establish triggers. (Am J Public Health. 2010;100: 1137-1144. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2009.169748)
- Published
- 2010