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Mapping the elderly population exposure to heat hazard in urban areas is important to inform adaptation strategies for increasingly-deadly urban heat under climate change. However, fine-scale mapping is lacking, because global climate change projections have not previously been integrated with urban heat island effects especially with urban three-dimensional characteristics for within-city heat risk analyses. This study compared the spatial patterns of deadly heat exposure for elderly populations in two East Asian megacities, Seoul and Tokyo, using current climate (2006–2015) and two future periods (2040s and 2090s). We integrated global warming projections (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) with local urban characteristics and demographics. We found that, for the historical period, the overall hotspots of elderly population exposure to urban heat was larger in Tokyo because of relatively higher maximum air temperatures and lack of green spaces, whereas in the future periods, Seoul will have larger hotspots because the elderly population density will have increased. About 20% of the area in Seoul and 0.3–1% of Tokyo will be hotpots in the 2040s, and the size of these hotspots increases to 25–26% and 2–3%, respectively, in the 2090s. The spatial patterns of hotspots identify different types of priority areas and suggest that alternative adaptation strategies for two cities are appropriate. The approach introduced here will be useful for identifying sustainable thermal environments in other cities with high density elderly population and severe heat hazard.

There are great uncertainties in the projected economic impacts of climate change1, arising from uncertainties in the climate response2, the climate change mitigation pathway3 and the socioeconomic development pathway4. Although the relative contributions of these factors are important for climate change related decision-making, they are poorly understood. Here, we show to what extent the projected economic impacts of climate change can be attributed to these three factors. Our modelling framework consisting of global, multisectoral impact models coupled with an integrated assessment model enables us to estimate the global total economic impacts of climate change while incorporating these uncertainty sources. Whereas the most pessimistic pathway without mitigation would result in a net economic impact equivalent to 6.6% (3.9–8.6%) of global gross domestic product at the end of this century, the pathways with stringent mitigation would limit the impact to around or less than 1%. Although the uncertainties are great, the climate change mitigation pathway is the dominant factor and socioeconomic developments can also contribute to alleviate the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that decisions on mitigation and development have a great influence in determining the economic impacts of climate change, regardless of the uncertainties in the climate response. Understanding which factors influence future economic impacts from climate change is important for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study demonstrates that projected economic impacts are primarily attributed to variation in socioeconomic development and future emissions trajectories, rather than uncertainties in the climate response.

Changes in the environmental heat stress need to be properly evaluated to manage the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly in the context of climate change. The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a useful index for evaluating heat stress and anticipating conditions related to heat-related illness in the present climate, but projecting the WBGT with a sufficiently high temporal and spatial resolution remains challenging for future climate conditions. In this study, we developed a methodological framework for estimating the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT based on the output of general circulation models using only simple calculations. The method was applied to six sites in Japan and its performance was evaluated. The proposed method could reproduce the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT with a high accuracy. Based on the developed framework, we constructed future (2090s) projections under two different greenhouse gas emission pathways. These projections showed a consistent rise in the WBGT and thus the capacity to perform physically demanding activities is expected to decrease. To demonstrate the usefulness of the projected WBGT in planning adaptation measures, we identified the optimal working schedules which would minimize outdoor workers' exposure to heat at a specific site. The results show that a substantial shift in the working time is required in the future if outdoor workers are to compensate the effect of increased heat exposure only by changing their working hours. This methodological framework and the projections will provide local practitioners with useful information to manage the increased risk of heat stress under climate change.

It is now widely recognized that climate change affects multiple sectors in virtually every part of the world. Impacts on one sector may influence other sectors, including seemingly remote ones, which we call “interconnections of climate risks.” While a substantial number of climate risks are identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, there have been few attempts to explore the interconnections between them in a comprehensive way. To fill this gap, we developed a methodology for visualizing climate risks and their interconnections based on a literature survey. Our visualizations highlight the need to address climate risk interconnections in impact and vulnerability studies. Our risk maps and flowcharts show how changes in climate impact natural and socioeconomic systems, ultimately affecting human security, health, and well‐being. We tested our visualization approach with potential users and identified likely benefits and issues. Our methodology can be used as a communication tool to inform decision makers, stakeholders, and the general public of the cascading risks that can be triggered by climate change.

In this paper, we present a Deep Learning-based system for the support of information triaging on Twitter during emergency situations, such as disasters, or other influential events, such as political elections. The system is based on the assumption that a different type of information is required right after the event and some time after the event occurs. In a preliminary study, we analyze the language behavior of Twitter users during two kinds of influential events, namely, natural disasters and political elections. In the study, we analyze the credibility of information included by users in tweets in the above-mentioned situations, by classifying the information into two kinds: Primary Information (first-hand reports) and Secondary Information (second-hand reports, retweets, etc.). We also perform sentiment analysis of the data to check user attitudes toward the occurring events. Next, we present the structure of the system and compare a number of classifiers, including the proposed one based on Convolutional Neural Networks. Finally, we validate the system by performing an in-depth analysis of information obtained after a number of additional events, including an eruption of a Japanese volcano Ontake on 27 September 2014, as well as heavy rains and typhoons that occurred in 2020. We confirm that the methods works sufficiently well even when trained on data from nearly 10 years ago, which strongly suggests that the model is well-generalized and sufficiently grasps important aspects of each type of classified information.

One of the major barriers to climate communication is that climate change is often presented to the public in such a way that impacts seem distant in time. To improve how climate change resonates with people, we propose a simple indicator: how many extreme events (hot days and heavy precipitation days) are grandchildren projected to experience that their grandparents will not experience in their lives? We analyse the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 ensemble. During grandchildren's lifetime (2020–2100) under the shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5-8.5), in some tropical regions, they are projected to experience >1000 hot days and >5 heavy precipitation days breaking records set in their grandparents' lifetime until 2040. These numbers of unprecedented hot days and heavy precipitation days under SSP5-8.5 are greater in countries with lower CO₂ emissions and income per capita than in countries with higher CO₂ emissions and income per capita. We show that not only the numbers of unprecedented hot days and heavy precipitation days but also their unevenness across countries can be significantly lowered in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, which is consistent with the 2 °C goal of the Paris Agreement. This new approach would help adults easily understand how their climate change mitigation efforts could decrease the unprecedented extreme events during youths' lifetime and reduce the intergenerational and intragenerational inequalities regarding extreme events., 孫は祖父母が遭遇しないような暑い日と大雨を何度経験するのか? --極端な気象現象の変化に関する世代間不公平性とその地域間不公平性の評価--. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2021-06-14.

Globally, many parts of fire emissions are driven by deforestation. However, few studies have attempted to evaluate deforestation and vegetation degradation fires (DDF) and predict how they will change in the future. In this study, we expanded a fire model used in the Community Land Model to reflect the diverse causes of DDF. This enabled us to differentiate DDFs by cause (climate change, wood harvesting, and cropland, pastureland, and urban land‐use changes) and seasonality. We then predicted the state of fire regimes in the 2050s and 2090s under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. Our results indicate that the area affected by global total fires will decrease from the current 452 to 211–378 Mha yr−1 in the 2090s under RCP 6.0 and to 184–333 Mha yr−1 under RCP 2.6, mainly due to socioeconomic factors such as population and economic growth. We also predict that DDF will decrease from the current 73 million hectares per year (Mha yr−1) to 54–66 Mha yr−1 in the 2090s under RCP 6.0 and 46–55 Mha yr−1 under RCP 2.6. The main contributor to these decreases in DDF burned area was climate change, especially the increasing of precipitation. The impact of future land use change on future DDF was similar or slightly lower than present‐day. South America, Indonesia, and Australia were identified as high‐risk regions for future DDF, mainly due to the expansion of wood harvest and pastureland. Appropriate land and fire management policies will be needed to reduce future fire damage in these areas.

This paper proposes a new concept of creativity, the Tripartite Thinking Model of Creativity (TTMC), which defines creativity as an interaction between three modes of thinking: logical, critical, and lateral. The TTMC Test is an experimental measure comprising three subtests collecting both quantitative and qualitative data. Inter-rater reliability results were mixed. Construct validity was assessed through confirmatory factor analysis, which showed overall goodness of fit. However, some factor loadings were low, indicating room for improvement in item design. Discriminant validity was evaluated through covariance structure analysis with the Abbreviated Torrance Test for Adults (ATTA). The correlation was low, implying that the TTMC Test and ATTA measure different constructs of creativity.

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use (AFOLU) are thought to play a vital role in long-term GHG emissions reduction, especially for their importance in non-CO2 emissions, bioenergy supply and carbon sequestration realized by afforestation. Several studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation on food security, due to food price increases, but these studies have not disaggregated the individual aspects of land-related emissions mitigation that impact food security. Here, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO2 emissions reduction, bioenergy production, and afforestation—change the food security and agricultural market conditions under 2 °C climate stabilization scenarios, using six global agro-economic models. The results show that afforestation, often implemented in the models by imposing carbon prices on land carbon stocks, causes the largest impacts on food security, followed by non-CO2 emissions policies, generally implemented as emissions taxes. Respectively, these measures put an additional 41.9 and 26.7 million people at risk of hunger in 2050. This study highlights the need for better coordination of emissions reduction and agricultural market management policy.

Coastal areas provide important services and functions for social and economic activities. Damage due to sea level rise (SLR) is one of the serious problems anticipated and caused by climate change. In this study, we assess the global economic impact of inundation due to SLR by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates detailed coastal damage information. The scenario analysis considers multiple general circulation models, socioeconomic assumptions, and stringency of climate change mitigation measures. We found that the global household consumption loss proportion will be 0.045%, with a range of 0.027&minus, 0.066%, in 2100. Socioeconomic assumptions cause a difference in the loss proportion of up to 0.035% without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation, the so-called baseline scenarios. The range of the loss proportion among GHG emission scenarios is smaller than the differences among the socioeconomic assumptions. We also observed large regional variations and, in particular, the consumption losses in low-income countries are, relatively speaking, larger than those in high-income countries. These results indicate that, even if we succeed in stabilizing the global mean temperature increase below 2 &deg, C, economic losses caused by SLR will inevitably happen to some extent, which may imply that keeping the global mean temperature increase below 1.5 &deg, C would be worthwhile to consider.

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.

Climate change increases workers' exposure to heat stress. To prevent heat‐related illnesses, according to occupational‐health recommendations, labor capacity must be reduced. However, this preventive measure is expected to be costly, and the costs are likely to rise as the scale and scope of climate change impacts increase over time. Shifting the start of the working day to earlier in the morning could be an effective adaptation measure for avoiding the impacts of labor capacity reduction. However, the plausibility and efficacy of such an intervention have never been quantitatively assessed. Here we investigate whether working time shifts can offset the economic impacts of labor capacity reduction due to climate change. Incorporating a temporally (1 hr) and spatially (0.5° × 0.5°) high‐resolution heat exposure index into an integrated assessment model, we calculated the working time shift necessary to offset labor capacity reduction and economic loss under hypothetical with‐ and without‐realistic‐adaptation scenarios. The results of a normative scenario analysis indicated that a global average shift of 5.7 (4.0–6.1) hours is required, assuming extreme climate conditions in the 2090s. Although a realistic (, 地球温暖化への適応策として屋外労働の時間帯変更の効果を推計 --増大する暑熱ストレスに対して時間帯変更のみの効果は限定的--. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2018-11-21.

We investigated dam behaviours during high-flow events and their robustness against perturbations in meteorological conditions using the H08 global hydrological model. Differences in these behaviou...

Purpose This study aims to verify the entire process of psychological contract breach (PCB). It investigates organizational variables such as organizational performance, previous employee performance, participative performance appraisal systems and leader power as the antecedents of perceived unfulfilled promises. It then examines whether perceived failure to fulfill contracts leads to the perception of PCB, and the possible moderating impacts of perceived self-fulfillment and individual differences on the relationship. Design/methodology/approach The current study uses cross-sectional design. Data have been collected from 364 full-time employees who enrolled in evening MBA courses in Vietnamese universities. Multiple regression and moderation analyses were used. Findings Participative performance appraisal, past performance, perception of leader’s power and overall organizational performance influenced perceived failure to fulfill promises, which contributed to contract breach. Furthermore, perceived self-fulfillment, equity sensitivity and self-esteem moderated the relationship between perceived failure to fulfill promises and PCB. Research limitations/implications The limitations of the study include a sampling technique which only focuses on MBA students, and cross-sectional research design. Practical implications The study confirms the role of individual traits in the PCB development. Vietnamese companies should collect information concerning employees’ personalities to focus on fulfilling promises that matter most to each type of employees. Originality/value The study distinguishes between perception of unmet promises and PCB. Furthermore, the moderating impacts of perceived self-fulfillment on the relationship between unmet promises and breach were examined.

We investigate how uncertainties in key parameters in the carbon cycle and climate system propagate to the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation needed to achieve the 2 and 1.5 °C targets by 2100 using a stochastic version of the simple climate model for optimization (SCM4OPT), an integrated assessment model. For the 2 °C target, we find a difference in 2100 CO2 emission levels of 20.5 GtCO2 (− 1.2 GtCO2 to 19.4 GtCO2), whereas this difference is 12.0 GtCO2 (− 6.9 GtCO2 to 5.1 GtCO2) for the 1.5 °C target (17–83% range). Total radiative forcing in 2100 is estimated to be 3.3 (2.7–3.9) Wm−2 for the 2 °C case and 2.5 (2.0–3.0) Wm−2 for the 1.5 °C case. Carbon prices in 2100 are 482 (181–732) USD(2005)/tCO2 and 713 (498–1014) USD(2005)/tCO2 for the 2 and 1.5 °C targets, respectively. We estimate GDP losses in 2100 that correspond to 1.9 (1.2–2.5)% of total gross output for the 2 °C target and 2.0 (1.5–2.7)% for the 1.5 °C target. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11625-017-0525-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets by considering the abatement potentials of a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the inter-temporal dynamic optimization model DICE-2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new marginal abatement cost curve derived under moderate assumptions regarding future socioeconomic development—the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) scenario. Second, we addressed emission abatement for not only industrial CO2 but also land-use CO2, CH4, N2O, halogenated gases, CO, volatile organic compounds, SOx, NOx, black carbon and organic carbon. Third, we improved the treatment of the non-CO2 components in the climate module based on MAGICC 6.0. We obtained the following findings: (1) It is important to address the individual emissions in an analysis of low stabilization scenarios because abating land-use CO2, non-CO2 and aerosol emissions also contributes to maintaining a low level of radiative forcing and substantially affects the climate costs. (2) The 2.0°C target can be efficiently reached under the assumptions of the SSP2 scenario. (3) The 1.5°C target can be met with early deep cuts under the assumption of a temperature overshoot, and it will triple the carbon price and double the mitigation cost compared with the 2.0°C case.

We assessed whether the impacts of various increases in global mean temperature from preindustrial levels (∆GMT) on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources could be approximated by linear scaling of the impacts of ∆GMT = 2 °C at global and large regional scales. Impacts on net primary production, CO2 emissions from biomass burning, soil erosion, and surface runoff calculated by impact model simulations driven by multiple climate scenarios were assessed for a ∆GMT range of 1.5–4 °C. The results showed that the linear scaling was tolerable for net primary production, biomass burning, and surface runoff for a global average. However, for regional averages, the linear scaling was unacceptable for net primary production and biomass burning as well as for soil erosion at around 3 °C in numerous regions around the world. The linear scaling was judged to be tolerable for surface runoff in most regions where the impacts of 2 °C were statistically significant, but there were large uncertainties in future changes in surface runoff in many regions. Exploring the applicability of linear scaling could help simplify and streamline climate-change impact assessments at various ∆GMTs. Our approach leaves room for refinement, and further investigation will be worthwhile.

Under the session “Quantifcation of the population”, the following sentence Population curves of Japan SSP1 and Japan SSP2 are close, because the diference between high fertility and medium setting is not remarkable by NIPSSR.

Objective: To describe the need to create indicators or to use the competency framework of the Japanese six-year initial pharmacy education programme for the assessment of the programme from various viewpoints. Methods: A web-based survey of pharmacists who graduated from the previous four-year pharmacy education programme (experienced 4-YP pharmacists) and pharmacists who graduated from the six-year initial pharmacy education programme (6-YP pharmacists) was conducted, targeting 350 pharmacists (200 experienced 4-YP pharmacists and 150 6-YP pharmacists). Based on their perceptions, experienced 4-YP pharmacists and 6-YP pharmacists evaluated whether 6-YP pharmacists possessed the “Professional Competencies for Pharmacists”. The authors compared the 6-YP pharmacists’ self-perceived competency evaluations with the experienced 4-YP pharmacists’ perceived competency evaluations. Results: Regarding overarching competency as pharmacists (total competencies including competency 1–10 as pharmacists), the 6-YP pharmacists’ perceived competency self-evaluations were significantly higher overall than the experienced 4-YP pharmacists’ perceived competency evaluations (p ​

The Paris Agreement set long-term global climate goals to pursue stabilization of the global mean temperature increase at below 2 °C (the so-called 2 °C goal). Individual countries submitted their own short-term targets, mostly for the year 2030. Meanwhile, the UN’s sustainable development goals (SDGs) were designed to help set multiple societal goals with respect to socioeconomic development, the environment, and other issues. Climate policies can lead to intended or unintended consequences in various sectors, but these types of side effects rarely have been studied in China, where climate policies will play an important role in global greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable development is a major goal. This study identified the extent to which climate policies in line with the 2 °C goal could have multi-sectoral consequences in China. Carbon constraints in China in the 2Deg scenario are set to align with the global 2 °C target based on the emissions per capita convergence principle. Carbon policies for NDC pledges as well as policies in China regarding renewables, air pollution control, and land management were also simulated. The results show that energy security and air quality have co-benefits related to climate policies, whereas food security and land resources experienced negative side effects (trade-offs). Near-term climate actions were shown to help reduce these trade-offs in the mid-term. A policy package that included food and land subsidies also helped achieve climate targets while avoiding the adverse side effects caused by the mitigation policies. The findings should help policymakers in China develop win–win policies that do not negatively affect some sectors, which could potentially enhance their ability to take climate actions to realize the global 2 °C goal within the context of sustainable development.

Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. Future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human land-use change can affect the climate system through bio-geophysical and bio-geochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG1 (MIROC INTEGrated terrestrial model version 1), an integrated model that combines the global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land use models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the sub-models of MIROC-INTEG1, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify the various interactions between sub-models. MIROC-INTEG1 makes it possible to quantitatively evaluate the feedback processes or nexus between climate, water resources, crop production, land use, and ecosystem, and to assess the risks, trade-offs and co-benefits associated with future climate change and prospective mitigation and adaptation policies.

The average household size in China has declined over the past few decades and will continue to drop, which leads to a loss of scale economies. Its implications for electricity demand and sustainability could be especially profound because of the high ecological/environmental intensity of electricity in China and the expected boom in demand. Using nationally representative household survey panels from 2010 to 2016, we identified substantial household scale economies in electricity consumption. Specifically, reducing household size by one incurs a 17.0–23.6% increase in consumption. We further assessed the ecological/environmental implications in China. CO2 emission, water withdrawal, smoke ash emission, SO2 emission, NOx emission, and industrial wastewater discharge were found to increase with a smaller household size. For example, a household size reduction of 0.5 (to 2.5 members) by 2030–2035 could result in a 0.5% increase in CO2 emission and a 0.3% increase in water withdrawal as compared with the levels in 2015. The increase in CO2 emission is almost equal to the entire emissions of Portugal. It is therefore essential to incorporate scale effect into energy demand projections and sustainability assessments. The results also highlight the urgency in transitioning to cleaner energy since household size shrinkage is occurring globally.

Assessing climate change impacts on local communities is an urgent task for national and subnational governments. The impact assessment requires socioeconomic scenarios, including a long-term outlook for demographic and economic indices. In Japan, the National Institute for Environmental Studies developed the Japan Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (JPNSSPs) and presented regional population scenarios corresponding to five different storylines. However, there exists no quantitative information about changes in local economies under the population scenarios. This study examines the economic activities in Japan's 47 prefectures using statistical models and calculates changes in the major economic indices (e.g., production, capital stock, and labor population) until 2100. The economic projection is based on ten socioeconomic scenarios generated from the JPNSSP population scenarios and original productivity scenarios. The economic projection results clearly show that Japan's population aging and decline have catastrophic impacts on national and subnational economies. Even in the most optimistic scenario, assuming a massive influx of immigrants and fast productivity growth, the GDP growth rate becomes negative in the 2090s. In the most pessimistic scenario, the GDP growth rate becomes negative in 2028 and continues to decline. As a result, Japan's GDP decreases to the level of the 1970s by 2100. The improvement of productivity cannot offset the GDP shrink caused by demographic changes. Furthermore, the population aging and decline accelerate the wealth concentration in urban areas. The Theil index, calculated using the economic projection results, shows increasing trends in all the scenarios. Tokyo's presence in Japan's economy will continue to increase throughout this century. Meanwhile, Kanagawa and Saitama, which belong to the top five prefectures in terms of economic production, may lose their positions. The Tohoku region, already suffering from population decline, will face severe economic stagnation. Our findings suggest that the depressing future is inevitable unless Japan overcomes the population aging and decline., Economic projection; Socioeconomic scenario; Population aging and decline; Productivity; Regional disparity