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Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and low-level wind fields in the Atlantic and Pacific intertropieal convergence zone (ITCZ) are dominated by variability on synoptic time scales primarily associated with easterly waves during boreal summer and fall. This study uses spectral filtering of observed OLR data to capture the convective variability coupled to Pacific easterly waves. Filtered OLR is then used as an independent variable to isolate easterly wave structure in wind, temperature, and humidity fields from open-ocean buoys, radiosondes, and gridded reanalysis products. The analysis shows that while some Pacific easterly waves originate in the Atlantic, most of the waves appear to form and strengthen within the Pacific. Pacific easterly waves have wavelengths of 4200-5900 kin, westward phase speeds of 11.3-13.6 m [s.sup.-1], and maximum meridional wind anomalies at about 600 hPa. A warm, moist boundary layer is observed ahead of the waves, with moisture lofted quickly through the troposphere by deep convection, followed by a cold, dry signal behind the wave. The waves are accompanied by substantial cloud forcing and surface latent heat flux fluctuations in buoy observations. In the central Pacific the horizontal structure of the waves appears as meridionally oriented inverted troughs, while in the east Pacific the waves are oriented southwestnortheast. Both are tilted slightly eastward with height. Although these tilts are consistent with adiabatic barotropic and baroclinic conversions to eddy energy, energetics calculations imply that Pacific easterly waves are driven primarily by convective heating. This differs from African easterly waves, where the barotropic and baroclinic conversions dominate.

Vertical structures of 2-day waves and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are projected onto vertical normal modes for a quiescent tropical troposphere. Three modes capture the gross tropospheric structure of 2-day waves, while only two modes are needed to represent most of the baroclinic structure of the MJO. Deep circulations that project onto the first baroclinic mode are associated with deep cumulonimbus and stratiform rainfall. Shallow circulations that project onto higher wavenumber modes are associated with precipitating shallow cumulus and congestus and stratiform rainfall. For both disturbances the horizontal divergence contributed by shallow modes is an important factor in the column-integrated moist enthalpy budget. These modes converge moist static energy for a time prior to when deep circulations export moist static energy. These results highlight the importance of properly representing the effects of shallow cumulus, congestus, and stratiform precipitation in theories of convectively coupled waves and in atmospheric models.

A primitive equation model is used to study the linear normal modes of the African easterly jet (AEJ). Reanalysis data from the summertime mean (June-September; JJAS) flow is used to provide zonally uniform and wavy basic states. The structure and growth rates of modes that grow over West Africa on these basic states are analyzed. For zonally uniform basic states, the modes resemble African easterly waves (AEWs) as in many previous studies, but they are quite baroclinic and surface intensified. For wavy basic states the modes have a longitudinal structure determined by the AEJ. They have a surface-intensified baroclinic structure upstream and a deep barotropic structure downstream, as confirmed by energy conversion diagnostics. These modes look remarkably similar to the composite easterly wave structures found by the authors in a companion paper. The similarity extends to the phase relationship of vertical velocity with streamfunction, which resembles OLR composites, suggesting a dynamical influence on convection. Without damping, the mode for the wavy basic state has a growth rate of 0.253 [day.sup.-1]. With a reasonable amount of low-level damping this mode is neutralized. It has a period of 5.5 days and a wavelength of about 3500 km. Further results with monthly mean basic states show slight variations, as the wave packet essentially follows displacements of the jet core. Experiments focused on specific active and passive years for easterly waves (1988 and 1990) do not yield significantly different results for the modes. These results, and in particular, the stability of the system, lead to the conclusion that barotropic-baroclinic instability alone cannot explain the initiation and intermittence of AEWs, and a finite-amplitude initial perturbation is required.

The mean structure of African easterly waves (AEWs) over West Africa and the adjacent Atlantic is isolated by projecting dynamical fields from reanalysis and radiosonde data onto space-time-filtered satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation. These results are compared with previous studies and an idealized modeling study in a companion paper, which provides evidence that the waves bear a close structural resemblance to the fastest-growing linear normal mode of the summertime basic-state flow over Africa. There is a significant evolution in the three-dimensional structure of AEWs as they propagate along 10[degrees]N across West Africa. At this latitude, convection occurs in northerly flow to the east of the Greenwich meridian, then shifts into the wave trough, and finally into southerly flow as the waves propagate offshore into the Atlantic ITCZ. In contrast, to the north of the African easterly jet along 15[degrees]N convection remains in southerly flow throughout the waves' trajectory. Along 10[degrees]N over West Africa, the location of convection is consistent with the adiabatic dynamical forcing implied by the advection of perturbation vorticity by the mean thermal wind in the zonal direction, as in the companion paper. Offshore, and along 15[degrees]N, the relationship between the convection and dynamics is more complex, and not as easily explained in terms of dynamical forcing alone.

A statistical study of the three-dimensional structure of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is carried out by projecting dynamical fields from reanalysis and radiosonde data onto space-time filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. MJO convection is generally preceded by low-level convergence and upward motion in the lower troposphere, while subsidence, cooling, and drying prevail aloft. This leads to moistening of the boundary layer and the development of shallow convection, followed by a gradual and then more rapid lofting of moisture into the middle troposphere at the onset of deep convection. After the passage of the heaviest rainfall, a westerly wind burst region is accompanied by stratiform precipitation, where lower tropospheric subsidence and drying coincide with continuing upper tropospheric upward motion. The evolution of the heating field leads to a temperature structure that favors the growth of the MJO. The analysis also reveals distinct differences in the vertical structure of the MJO as it evolves, presumably reflecting changes in its vertical heating profile, phase speed, or the basic-state circulation that the MJO propagates through. The dynamical structure and the evolution of cloud morphology within the MJO compares favorably in many respects with other propagating convectively coupled equatorial waves. One implication is that the larger convective envelopes within the Tropics tend to be composed of more shallow convection along their leading edges, a combination of deep convection and stratiform rainfall in their centers, and then a preponderance of stratiform rainfall along their trailing edges, regardless of scale or propagation direction. While this may ultimately be the factor that governs the dynamical similarities across the various wave types, it raises questions about how the smaller-scale, higher-frequency disturbances making up the MJO conspire to produce its heating and dynamical structures. This suggests that the observed cloud morphology is dictated by fundamental interactions with the large-scale circulation.

The dynamics of the 2-day wave, a type of convectively coupled disturbance that frequents the equatorial western Pacific, is examined using observations and a linear primitive equation model. A statistical composite of the wave's kinematic and thermodynamic structure is presented. It is shown that l) the wave's wind and temperature perturbations can be modeled as linear responses to convective beating and cooling, and 2) the bulk of the wave's dynamical and convective structure can be represented with two vertical modes. The observations and model results suggest that the 2-day wave is an n = 1 westward-propagating inertio-gravity wave with a shallow equivalent depth (14 m) that results from the partial cancelation of adiabatic temperature changes due to vertical motion by convective beating and cooling.

Recent observational analysis of both individual realizations and statistical ensembles identifies moist convectively coupled Kelvin waves in the Tropics with supercluster envelopes of convection. This observational analysis elucidates several key features of these waves including their propagation speed of roughly 15 m [s.sup.-1] and many aspects of their dynamical structure. This structure includes anomalously cold temperatures in the lower troposphere and warm temperatures in the upper troposphere (below 250 hPa) within and sometimes leading the heating region and strong updrafts in the wave, and an upward and westward tilting structure with height below roughly 250 hPa. Other key features in the wave are that anomalous increases in convective available potential energy (CAPE) and surface precipitation lead the wave while the trailing part of the supercluster is dominated by stratiform precipitation. The main result in this paper is the development of a simple model convective parameterization with nonlinear convectively coupled moist gravity waves, which reproduce many of the features of the observational record listed above in a qualitative fashion. One key feature of the model convective parameterization is the systematic use of two vertical modes with one representing deep convective heating and the other stratiform heating. The other key feature in the model is the explicit parameterization of the separate deep convective and stratiform contribution to the downdrafts, which change equivalent potential temperature in the boundary layer. The effects of rotation on convectively coupled equatorial waves are also included through a suitable linear stability theory for the model convective parameterization about radiative convective equilibrium.

Observations of the horizontal and vertical structure of convectively coupled Kelvin waves are presented and are compared with the predicted structures of moist Kelvin (or gravity) waves in three simple models of coupled wave instability: wave-conditional instability of the second kind (CISK), wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE), and stratiform instability. The observations are based on a linear regression analysis of multiple years of ECMWF reanalysis and station radiosonde data. Results suggest that both the wave-CISK and stratiform instability theories successfully predict many important features of observed moist Kelvin waves, but that unrealistic aspects of these models limit their ability to provide comprehensive explanations for the dynamics of these waves. It is suggested that an essential component of any theory for moist Kelvin waves is the second baroclinic mode heat source associated with stratiform precipitation.

Observations are presented that link extratropical Rossby wave disturbances excited in the Southern Hemisphere subtropical jet to the initiation of convectively coupled Kelvin waves in the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during austral winter. A baroclinic, zonal wavenumber 6, eastward-propagating Rossby wave train in the subtropical jet turns northeastward in the vicinity of Australia, inducing upper tropospheric divergence and vertical motion fields that spread equatorward and induce cloudiness anomalies in the Tropics. Lower tropospheric pressure surges excited from the extratropics also induce Kelvin wave-like geopotential height and temperature anomalies at the surface, providing additional lower tropospheric convergence and vertical motion forcing. The tropical outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and circulation fields propagate eastward in tandem with the extratropical Rossby wave train at approximately 17 m [s.sup.-1]. Kelvin wave activity in the central Pacific ITCZ thus appears to be associated with eastward-propagating Rossby wave activity in the extratropics, which is traveling at phase speeds similar to those observed in developed convectively coupled Kelvin waves (15-20 m [s.sup.-1]). The longer timescale relationship between subtropical jet activity and Kelvin wave variability in the Tropics is determined through the calculation of monthly averaged composite fields. When Kelvin wave OLR activity is enhanced (suppressed) in the tropical Pacific, eastward-propagating Rossby wave activity in the Kelvin wave phase speed band (8-30 m [s.sup.-1]) is anomalously strong (weak) in the subtropical jet. A case study is presented that suggests that enhanced Kelvin wave activity in the central Pacific ITCZ is associated more strongly with enhanced eastward-propagating Rossby wave activity in the subtropics than with the local thermal and moisture boundary conditions in the tropical Pacific.

We analyze the stratospheric waves in models participating in phase 1 of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi). All models have robust Kelvin and mixed Rossby‐gravity wave modes in winds and temperatures at 50 hPa and represent them better than most of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. There is still some spread among the models, especially concerning the mixed Rossby‐gravity waves. We attribute the variability in equatorial waves among the QBOi models in part to the varying horizontal and vertical resolutions, to systematic biases in zonal winds, and to the considerable variability in convectively coupled waves in the troposphere among the models: only roughly half of the QBOi models have realistic convectively coupled Kelvin waves and only a few models have convectively coupled mixed Rossby‐gravity waves. The models with stronger convectively coupled waves tend to produce larger zonal mean forcing due to resolved waves in the QBO region. Finally we evaluate the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux and EP flux divergence of the resolved waves in the QBOi models. We find that there is a large spread in the forcing from resolved waves in the QBO region, and the resolved wave forcing has a robust correlation with model vertical resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A case study of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave in the eastern Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is presented, as observed during the 1997 Pan American Climate Studies (PACS) Tropical Eastern Pacific Process Study (TEPPS). The large-scale convective envelope associated with this disturbance, with a zonal scale of approximately 1000-2000 km, propagates eastward at 15 m [s.sup.-1] along the mean convective axis of the ITCZ. This envelope consists of many smaller-scale, westward-moving convective elements, with zonal scales on the order of 100-500 km. As the convectively coupled Kelvin wave disturbance propagates eastward, it exerts a strong control on local convection. Radar and vertical profiler data collected aboard the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown during the wave passage show that convection deepens rapidly as the Kelvin wave approaches from the west, progressing from isolated, shallow cumuli to organized deep convective features within just 12 h. Initially, rainfall in the vicinity of the ship consists of a significant deep convective fraction, but as the large-scale envelope departs to the east, stratiform precipitation becomes dominant. Radiosonde data collected during the Kelvin wave passage reveal dynamical perturbations in the troposphere and lower stratosphere that are consistent with linear equatorial Kelvin wave theory. The TEPPS radiosonde data also compare remarkably well with the vertical structure of a typical eastern Pacific Kelvin wave disturbance in the ECMWF reanalysis dataset, based on a 15-yr linear regression analysis. When this analysis is expanded to include all global grid points, it is shown that Kelvin waves in the eastern Pacific ITCZ have a dynamical structure that is nearly symmetric with respect to the equator, as would be expected based on linear Kelvin wave theory. However, the convective signal associated with these symmetric dynamical perturbations is itself primarily asymmetric with respect to the equator. The deepest convection is located significantly to the north of the equator, in the region of warmest sea surface temperatures. These observations present a somewhat different perspective on the dynamics of convectively coupled Kelvin waves, in that the symmetric dynamical fields and asymmetric convection interact to sustain the simultaneous eastward propagation of both fields.

Rossby wave activity propagating into the eastern tropical Pacific from the midlatitudes during northern winter is examined in some detail. These waves are associated with the intrusion of high potential vorticity air into low latitudes, and they modulate cloudiness, stability, and vertical motion in the vicinity of the ITCZ. In the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere the horizontal phase and group propagation of the wave activity are qualitatively like those of a nondivergent barotropic Rossby wave. As the waves move equatorward, they become more shallow and propagate upward into the stratosphere. The horizontal and vertical propagation is consistent with the tilts of the waves, the large-scale three-dimensional background flow, and with the signatures of momentum and heat fluxes associated with the wave activity. In the lower troposphere, paired cyclonic anomalies on either side of the equator accompany the upper level wave activity to the west of the ITCZ cloudiness signal. These waves amplify following the peak in the ITCZ cloudiness and propagate westward along the equator. This suggests that the upper-level wave activity, and possibly the associated convective heating, can trigger the excitation of the equatorially trapped Rossby modes. The transient wave activity appears to be a crucial component of the momentum balance of the eastern tropical Pacific circulation. There is substantial interannual variability in the wave activity, consistent with observed changes in the large-scale basic state associated with the Southern Oscillation.

The global and zonal atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) budget is computed from seven years of National Centers for Environmental Prediction data and a composite budget of intraseasonal (30-70 day) variations during northern winter is constructed. Regressions on the global AAM tendency are used to produce maps of outgoing longwave radiation, 200-hPa wind, surface stress, and sea level pressure during the composite AAM cycle. The primary synoptic features and surface torques that contribute to the AAM changes are described. In the global budget, the friction and mountain torques contribute about equally to the AAM tendency. The friction torque peaks in phase with subtropical surface easterly wind anomalies in both hemispheres. The mountain torque peaks when anomalies in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere and subtropical Southern Hemisphere are weak but of the same sign. The picture is different for the zonal mean budget, in which the meridional convergence of the northward relative angular momentum transport and the friction torque are the dominant terms. During the global AAM cycle, zonal AAM anomalies move poleward from the equator to the subtropics primarily in response to momentum transports. These transports are associated with the spatial covariance of the filtered (30-70 day) perturbations with the climatological upper-tropospheric flow. The zonally asymmetric portion of these perturbations develop when convection begins over the Indian Ocean and maximize when convection weakens over the western Pacific Ocean. The 30-70-day zonal mean friction torque results from 1) the surface winds induced by the upper-tropospheric momentum sources and sinks and 2) the direct surface wind response to warm pool convection anomalies. The signal in relative AAM is complemented by one in 'Earth' AAM associated with meridional redistributions of atmospheric mass. This meridional redistribution occurs preferentially over the Asian land mass and is linked with the 30-70-day eastward moving convective signal. It is preceded by a surface Kelvin-like wave in the equatorial Pacific atmosphere that propagates eastward from the western Pacific region to the South American topography and then moves poleward as an edge wave along the Andes. This produces a mountain torque on the Andes, which also causes the regional and global AAM to change.

Easterly waves (EWs) are off-equatorial tropical synoptic disturbances with a westward phase speed between 11 and 14 m s−1. Over the east Pacific in boreal summer, the combination of EWs and other synoptic disturbances, plus local mechanisms associated with sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, define the climatological structure of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The east Pacific ITCZ has both deep and shallow convection that is linked to deep and shallow meridional circulations, respectively. The deep convection is located around 9°N over warm SSTs. The shallow convection is located around 6°N and is driven by the meridional SST gradient south of the ITCZ. This study aims to document the interaction between east Pacific EWs and the deep and shallow meridional circulations during the Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection (OTREC) field campaign in 2019 using field campaign observations, ERA5, and satellite precipitation. We identified three EWs during the OTREC period using precipitation and dynamical fields. Composite analysis shows that the convectively active part of the EW enhances ITCZ deep convection and is associated with an export of column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) by vertical advection. The subsequent convectively suppressed, anticyclonic part of the EW produces an increase of moisture and column-integrated MSE by horizontal advection that likely enhances shallow convection and the shallow overturning flow at 850 hPa over the southern part of the ITCZ. Therefore, EWs appear to strongly modulate shallow and deep circulations in the east Pacific ITCZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A set of 30-day reforecast experiments, focused on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) cool season (November–March), is performed to quantify the remote impacts of tropical forecast errors on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). The approach is to nudge the model toward reanalyses in the tropics and then measure the change in skill at higher latitudes as a function of lead time. In agreement with previous analogous studies, results show that midlatitude predictions tend to be improved in association with reducing tropical forecast errors during weeks 2–4, particularly over the North Pacific and western North America, where gains in subseasonal precipitation anomaly pattern correlations are substantial. It is also found that tropical nudging is more effective at improving NH subseasonal predictions in cases where skill is relatively low in the control reforecast, whereas it tends to improve fewer cases that are already relatively skillful. By testing various tropical nudging configurations, it is shown that tropical circulation errors play a primary role in the remote modulation of predictive skill. A time-dependent analysis suggests a roughly 1-week lag between a decrease in tropical errors and an increase in NH predictive skill. A combined tropical nudging and conditional skill analysis indicates that improved Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) predictions throughout its life cycle could improve weeks 3–4 NH precipitation predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Equatorial Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere represented in recent reanalyses for the period of 1981–2010 are compared in terms of spectral characteristics, spatial structures, long-term variations and their forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation. For both wave types, the spectral distributions are broadly similar among most of the reanalyses, while the peak amplitudes exhibit considerable spread. The longitudinal distributions and spatial patterns of wave perturbations show reasonable agreement between the reanalyses. A few exceptions to the similarity of the spectral shapes and spatial structures among them are also noted. While the interannual variations of wave activity appear to be coherent for both the Kelvin and MRG waves, there is substantial variability in long-term trends among the reanalyses. Most of the reanalyses which assimilate satellite data exhibit large increasing trends in wave variance (~ 15–50 % increase in the 30 years at 100–10 hPa), whereas one reanalysis (JRA-55C) produced without satellite data does not. Several discontinuities are found around 1998 in the time series of the Kelvin and MRG wave variances, which manifest in different ways depending on the reanalysis, and are indicative of impacts of the transition of satellite measurements during that year. The equatorial wave forcing of the quasi-biennial oscillation, estimated by the Eliassen–Palm flux divergence, occurs in similar phase-speed ranges among the reanalyses, while the forcing magnitudes show considerable spread. The forcing maxima of the Kelvin waves exhibit slightly different altitudes between the reanalyses (by ~ 3 km at around 15 hPa). In addition, at around 20 hPa, a wave signal which appears only in easterly mean winds with westward phase speeds is found and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Equatorward-propagating wave trains in the upper troposphere are observed to be associated with deep convection over the eastern tropical Pacific on the submonthly timescale during northern winter. The convection occurs in the regions of ascent and reduced static stability ahead of cyclonic anomalies in the wave train. In this study an atmospheric primitive equation model is used to examine the roles of the dry wave dynamics and the diabatic heating associated with the convection. Many features of a dry integration initialized with a localized wave train in the African-Asian jet on a three-dimensional climatological basic state quantitatively agree with the observations, including the zonal wavenumber 6-7 scale of the waves, the time period of approximately 12 days, and the cross-equatorial Rossby wave propagation over the eastern Pacific. There is ascent and reduced static stability ahead of the cyclonic anomalies, consistent with the interpretation that the waves force the convection. The spatial scale of the waves appears to be set by the basic state; baroclinic growth upstream in the Asian jet favors waves with zonal wavenumber 6. On reaching the Pacific sector, lower-wavenumber components of the wave train are not refracted so strongly equatorward, while higher-wavenumber components are advected quickly along the Pacific jet before they can propagate equatorward. Once over the Pacific, the wave train approximately obeys barotropic Rossby wave dynamics. The observed lower-tropospheric anomalies include an equatorial Rossby wave that propagates westward from the region of cross-equatorial wave propagation and tropical convection. However, this equatorial Rossby wave is not forced directly by the dry equatorward-propagating wave train but appears in a separate integration as a forced response to the observed diabatic heating associated with the tropical convection.

Convectively coupled equatorial waves, as previously detected in studies of wavenumber-frequency spectra of tropical clouds, are studied in more detail. Composite dynamical structures of the waves are obtained using linear regression between selectively filtered satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, and various fields from a global reanalysis dataset. The selective filtering of the OLR was designed to isolate the convective variations contributing to spectral peaks that lie along the equatorial wave dispersion curves for equivalent depths in the range of 12-50 m. The waves studied are the Kelvin, n = 1 equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby-gravity, n = 0 eastward inertio-gravity, n = 1 westward inertio-gravity (WIG), and n = 2 WIG waves. The horizontal structures of the dynamical fields associated with the waves are all generally consistent with those calculated from inviscid equatorial [Beta]-plane shallow water theory. In the vertical, there are statistically significant structures spanning the depth of the troposphere, and for all but the ER wave there are associated vertically propagating signals extending into the equatorial stratosphere as well. In zonal cross sections, the vertical structure of the temperature anomaly field appears, for all but the ER wave, as a 'boomerang'-like shape, with the 'elbow' of the boomerang occurring consistently at the 250-hPa level. The tilts of the boomerang imply upward phase propagation throughout most of the troposphere, and downward phase propagation above. The deep convection of the waves occurs in regions of anomalously cold temperatures in the lower troposphere, warm temperatures in the upper troposphere, and cold temperatures at the level of the tropopause. Such a vertical structure appears to indicate that waves of relatively short vertical wavelengths ([L.sub.z] ~ 10 km) are indeed important for the coupling of large-scale dynamics and convection. The deeper structure of the convectively coupled ER wave, on the other hand, is thought to be an indication of the effects of basic-state vertical shear. Finally, the scales of the waves in the equatorial lower stratosphere that are forced by the convectively coupled equatorial waves are quite consistent with those found in many previous studies.