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Survival and reproduction of endotherms depend on their ability to balance energy and water exchange with their environment, avoiding lethal deficits and maximising gains for growth and reproduction. At high environmental temperatures, diurnal endotherms maintain body temperature (Tb) below lethal limits via physiological and behavioural adjustments. Accurate models of these processes are crucial for predicting effects of climate variability on avifauna. We evaluated the performance of a biophysical model (NicheMapR) for predicting evaporative water loss (EWL), resting metabolic rate (RMR) and Tb at environmental temperatures approaching or exceeding normothermic Tb for three arid-zone birds: southern yellow-billed hornbill (Tockus leucomelas), southern pied babbler (Turdoides bicolor) and southern fiscal (Lanius collaris). We simulated metabolic chamber conditions and compared model outputs with thermal physiology data collected at air temperatures (Tair) between 10 and 50°C. Additionally, we determined the minimum data needed to accurately model diurnal birds' thermoregulatory responses to Tair using sensitivity analyses. Predicted EWL, metabolic rate and Tb corresponded tightly with observed values across Tair, with only minor discrepancies for EWL in two species at Tair≈35°C. Importantly, the model captured responses at Tair=30-40°C, a range spanning threshold values for sublethal fitness costs associated with sustained hot weather in arid-zone birds. Our findings confirm how taxon-specific parameters together with biologically relevant morphological data can accurately model avian thermoregulatory responses to heat. Biophysical models can be used as a non-invasive way to predict species' sensitivity to climate, accounting for organismal (e.g. physiology) and environmental factors (e.g. microclimates)., Competing Interests: Competing interests The authors declare no competing or financial interests., (© 2023. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.)

Low-vagility species may hold strong genetic signatures of past biogeographical processes but are also vulnerable to habitat loss. Flightless grasshoppers of the morabine group were once widespread in southeastern Australia, including Tasmania, but are becoming restricted to remnant patches of vegetation, with local ranges impacted by agriculture and development as well as management. Habitat fragmentation can generate genetically differentiated "island" populations with low genetic variation. However, following revegetation, populations could be re-established, and gene flow increased. Here we characterize single nucleotide polymorphism-based genetic variation in a widespread chromosomal race of the morabine Vandiemenella viatica (race 19) to investigate the genetic health of remnant populations and to provide guidelines for restoration efforts. We update the distribution of this race to new sites in Victoria and Tasmania, and show that V. viatica populations from northern Tasmania and eastern Victoria have reduced genetic variation compared to other mainland populations. In contrast, there was no effect of habitat fragment size on genetic variation. Tasmanian V. viatica populations fell into two groups, one connected genetically to eastern Victoria and the other connected to southwestern Victoria. Mainland populations showed isolation by distance. These patterns are consistent with expectations from past biogeographical processes rather than local recent population fragmentation and emphasize the importance of small local reserves in preserving genetic variation. The study highlights how genomic analyses can combine information on genetic variability and population structure to identify biogeographical patterns within a species, which in turn can inform decisions on potential source populations for translocations., (© 2023 The Authors. Molecular Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The model used by White et al . ( 1 ) to explore life-history optimization of metabolic scaling has limited ability to capture observed combinations of growth and reproduction, including those of the domestic chicken. The analyses and interpretations may change substantially with realistic parameters. The model's biological and thermodynamic realism needs further exploration and justification before being applied to life-history optimization studies.

A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The world's warm deserts are predicted to experience disproportionately large temperature increases due to climate change, yet the impacts on global desert biodiversity remain poorly understood. Because species in warm deserts live close to their physiological limits, additional warming may induce local extinctions. Here, we combine climate change projections with biophysical models and species distributions to predict physiological impacts of climate change on desert birds globally. Our results show heterogeneous impacts between and within warm deserts. Moreover, spatial patterns of physiological impacts do not simply mirror air temperature changes. Climate change refugia, defined as warm desert areas with high avian diversity and low predicted physiological impacts, are predicted to persist in varying extents in different desert realms. Only a small proportion (<20%) of refugia fall within existing protected areas. Our analysis highlights the need to increase protection of refugial areas within the world's warm deserts to protect species from climate change., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Pathologic response at the time of surgery after neoadjuvant therapy for HER2 positive early breast cancer impacts both prognosis and subsequent adjuvant therapy. Comprehensive descriptions of the tumor microenvironment (TME) in patients with HER2 positive early breast cancer is not well described. We utilized standard stromal pathologist-assessed tumor infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) quantification, quantitative multiplex immunofluorescence, and RNA-based gene pathway signatures to assess pretreatment TME characteristics associated pathologic complete response in patients with hormone receptor positive, HER2 positive early breast cancer treated in the neoadjuvant setting., Methods: We utilized standard stromal pathologist-assessed TIL quantification, quantitative multiplex immunofluorescence, and RNA-based gene pathway signatures to assess pretreatment TME characteristics associated pathologic complete response in 28 patients with hormone receptor positive, HER2 positive early breast cancer treated in the neoadjuvant setting., Results: Pathologist-assessed stromal TILs were significantly associated with pathologic complete response (pCR). By quantitative multiplex immunofluorescence, univariate analysis revealed significant increases in CD3+, CD3+CD8-FOXP3-, CD8+ and FOXP3+ T-cell densities as well as increased immune cell aggregates in pCR patients. In subsets of paired pre/post-treatment samples, we observed significant changes in gene expression signatures in non-pCR patients and significant decreases in CD8+ densities after treatment in pCR patients. No RNA based pathway signature was associated with pCR., Conclusion: TME characterization HER2 positive breast cancer patients revealed several stromal T-cell densities and immune cell aggregates associated with pCR. These results demonstrate the feasibility of these novel methods in TME evaluation and contribute to ongoing investigations of the TME in HER2+ early breast cancer to identify robust biomarkers to best identify patients eligible for systemic de-escalation strategies., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

The rarity of parthenogenetic species is typically attributed to the reduced genetic variability that accompanies the absence of sex, yet natural parthenogens can be surprisingly successful. Ecological success is often proposed to derive from hybridization through enhanced genetic diversity from repetitive origins or enhanced phenotypic breadth from heterosis. Here, we tested and rejected both hypotheses in a classic parthenogen, the diploid grasshopper Warramaba virgo . Genetic data revealed a single hybrid mating origin at least 0.25 million years ago, and comparative analyses of 14 physiological and life history traits showed no evidence for altered fitness relative to its sexual progenitors. Our findings imply that the rarity of parthenogenesis is due to constraints on origin rather than to rapid extinction.

While checkpoint inhibitors have been approved in patients with newly metastatic PDL1-positive triple negative breast cancer, similar clinical benefit with immunotherapy alone or in combination with chemotherapy has not been observed in patients with hormone receptor-positive, HER2- negative breast cancer in the metastatic setting. However, in the ISPY2 trial, an increase in pathologic response has been observed with the addition of immunotherapy (± PARP inhibition) to chemotherapy compared to chemotherapy alone in patients with high-risk hormone receptor-positive, HER2- breast cancer. We review strategies to enhance the immunotherapeutic activity in this subtype of breast cancer, including combinations of checkpoint inhibition with chemotherapy, endocrine therapy, PARP inhibitors, HDAC inhibitors, CDK4/6 inhibitors, and radiotherapy. Combinations with agents targeting novel immunotherapeutic targets are also discussed. Though there remains an unmet need for immunotherapy approaches in patients with hormone-receptor positive breast cancer, there are a number of approaches that may lead to increased anti-tumor activity with immunotherapy in this tumor subtype., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

All terrestrial ectotherms are constrained to some degree by their thermal environment and the extent to which they can behaviorally buffer variable thermal conditions. New biophysical modeling methods (NicheMapR) allow the calculation of the body temperature of thermoregulating animals anywhere in the world from first principles, but require detailed observational data for parameterization and testing. Here we describe the thermoregulatory biology of marching bands of the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria, in the Sahara Desert of Mauritania where extreme heat and strong diurnal fluctuations are a major constraint on activity and physiological processes. Using a thermal infrared camera in the field, we showed that gregarious nymphs altered the microhabitats they used, as well as postural thermoregulatory behaviors, to maintain relatively high body temperature (nearly 40°C). Field and laboratory experiments demonstrated that the preferred body temperature accelerated digestive rates. Migratory bands frequently left foraging sites with full guts before consuming all vegetation and moved to another habitat before emptying their foregut. Thus, the repertoire for behavioral thermoregulation in the desert locust strongly facilitates foraging and digestion rates, which may accelerate developmental rates and increase survival. We used our data to successfully parameterize a general biophysical model of thermoregulatory behavior that could capture hourly body temperature and activity at our remote site using globally available environmental forcing data. This modeling approach provides a stronger basis for forecasting thermal constraints on locust outbreaks under current and future climates., (© 2021 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Conservation research is dominated by vertebrate examples but the shorter generation times and high local population sizes of invertebrates may lead to very different management strategies, particularly for species with low movement rates. Here we investigate the genetic structure of an endangered flightless grasshopper, Keyacris scurra , which was used in classical evolutionary studies in the 1960s. It had a wide distribution across New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria in pre-European times but has now become threatened because of land clearing for agriculture and other activities. We revisited remnant sites of K. scurra , with populations now restricted to only one area in Victoria and a few small patches in NSW and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). Using DArtseq to generate SNP markers as well as mtDNA sequence data, we show that the remaining Victorian populations in an isolated valley are genetically distinct from the NSW populations and that all populations tend to be genetically unique, with large F ST values up to 0.8 being detected for the SNP datasets. We also find that, with one notable exception, the NSW/ACT populations separate genetically into previously described chromosomal races (2 n  = 15 vs. 2 n  = 17). Isolation by distance was detected across both the SNP and mtDNA datasets, and there was substantial differentiation within chromosomal races. Genetic diversity as measured by heterozygosity was not correlated with the size of remaining habitat where the populations were found, with high variation present in some remnant cemetery sites. However, inbreeding correlated negatively with estimated habitat size at 25-500 m patch radius. These findings emphasize the importance of small habitat areas in conserving genetic variation in such species with low mobility, and they highlight populations suitable for future translocation efforts., Competing Interests: None declared., (© 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Metabolic theory aims to tackle ecological and evolutionary problems by explicitly including physical principles of energy and mass exchange, thereby increasing generality and deductive power. Individual growth models (IGMs) are the fundamental basis of metabolic theory because they represent the organisational level at which energy and mass exchange processes are most tightly integrated and from which scaling patterns emerge. Unfortunately, IGMs remain a topic of great confusion and controversy about the origins of the ideas, their domain and breadth of application, their logical consistency and whether they can sufficiently capture reality. It is now 100 years since the first theoretical model of individual growth was put forward by Pütter. His insights were deep, but his model ended up being attributed to von Bertalanffy and his ideas largely forgotten. Here I review Pütter's ideas and trace their influence on existing theoretical models for growth and other aspects of metabolism, including those of von Bertalanffy, the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory, the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and the Ontogenetic Growth Model (OGM). I show that the von Bertalanffy and GOLT models are minor modifications of Pütter's original model. I then synthesise, compare and critique the ideas of the two most-developed theories, DEB theory and the OGM, in relation to Pütter's original ideas. I formulate the Pütter, DEB and OGM models in the same structure and with the same notation to illustrate the major similarities and differences among them. I trace the confusion and controversy regarding these theories to the notions of anabolism, catabolism, assimilation and maintenance, the connections to respiration rate, and the number of parameters and state variables their models require. The OGM model has significant inconsistencies that stem from the interpretation of growth as the difference between anabolism and maintenance, and these issues seriously challenge its ability to incorporate development, reproduction and assimilation. The DEB theory is a direct extension of Pütter's ideas but with growth being the difference between assimilation and maintenance rather than anabolism and catabolism. The DEB theory makes the dynamics of Pütter's 'nutritive material' explicit as well as extending the scheme to include reproduction and development. I discuss how these three major theories for individual growth have been used to explain 'macrometabolic' patterns including the scaling of respiration, the temperature-size rule (first modelled by Pütter), and the connection to life history. Future research on the connections between theory and data in these macrometabolic topics have the greatest potential to advance the status of metabolic theory and its value for pure and applied problems in ecology and evolution., (© 2020 Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Purpose: Resection of liver-only colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) with perioperative chemotherapy is potentially curative. Specific primary tumor and liver metastasis characteristics have been validated to estimate the risk of recurrence. We hypothesize that the time interval from diagnosis of CRLM to surgery, or time to surgery (TTS), is clinically prognostic., Methods: Patients from a prospectively maintained institutional database at a Comprehensive Cancer Center from May 2003 to January 2018 were reviewed. Clinicopathologic, perioperative treatment, and TTS data were collected. TTS was categorized into short (< 3 months), intermediate (3-6 months), and long (> 6 months) intervals., Results: Two hundred eighty-one patients were identified. While overall survival (OS) was similar across TTS, postoperative overall survival (postoperative OS) of long TTS was associated with worse survival, 44 months (95% CI, 34-52) compared to short TTS, 59 months (95% CI, 43-79), and intermediate TTS, 63 months (95% CI, 52-108), both p < 0.01. With regard to long-term OS, intermediate TTS had 5-year OS of 59% and 8-year OS of 43% compared to long TTS (5-year OS 53% and 8-year OS 18%) and short TTS (5-year OS 54% and 8-year OS 29%). Long TTS was negatively associated with postoperative OS on multivariate analysis (HR 1.6, p < 0.01) when adjusting for resection margin, CRLM size, age, and use of postoperative chemotherapy., Conclusion: Short and intermediate TTS had similar survival although patients with intermediate TTS may have better odds of long-term OS. While long TTS was associated with worse survival, likely due to higher disease burden, long-term survivors were still observed.

In cold environments ectotherms can be dormant underground for long periods. In 1941 Cowles proposed an ecological trade-off involving the depth at which ectotherms overwintered: on warm days, only shallow reptiles could detect warming soils and become active; but on cold days, they risked freezing. Cowles discovered that most reptiles at a desert site overwintered at shallow depths. To extend his study, we compiled hourly soil temperatures (5 depths, 90 sites, continental USA) and physiological data, and simulated consequences of overwintering at fixed depths. In warm localities shallow ectotherms have lowest energy costs and largest reserves in spring, but in cold localities, they risk freezing. Ectotherms shifting hourly to the coldest depth potentially reduce energy expenses, but paradoxically sometimes have higher expenses than those at fixed depths. Biophysical simulations for a desert site predict that shallow ectotherms have increased opportunities for mid-winter activity but need to move deep to digest captured food. Our simulations generate testable predictions to eco-physiological questions but rely on physiological responses to acute cold rather than to natural cooling profiles. Furthermore, natural-history data to test most predictions do not exist. Thus, our simulation approach uncovers knowledge gaps and suggests research agendas for studying ectotherms overwintering underground., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Winter climate warming is rapidly leading to changes in snow depth and soil temperatures across mid- and high-latitude ecosystems, with important implications for survival and distribution of species that overwinter beneath the snow. Amphibians are a particularly vulnerable group to winter climate change because of the tight coupling between their body temperature and metabolic rate. Here, we used a mechanistic microclimate model coupled to an animal biophysics model to predict the spatially explicit effects of future climate change on the wintering energetics of a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), across its distributional range in the eastern United States. Our below-the-snow microclimate simulations were driven by dynamically downscaled climate projections from a regional climate model coupled to a one-dimensional model of the Laurentian Great Lakes. We found that warming soil temperatures and decreasing winter length have opposing effects on Wood Frog winter energy requirements, leading to geographically heterogeneous implications for Wood Frogs. While energy expenditures and peak body ice content were predicted to decline in Wood Frogs across most of our study region, we identified an area of heightened energetic risk in the northwestern part of the Great Lakes region where energy requirements were predicted to increase. Because Wood Frogs rely on body stores acquired in fall to fuel winter survival and spring breeding, increased winter energy requirements have the potential to impact local survival and reproduction. Given the geographically variable and intertwined drivers of future under-snow conditions (e.g., declining snow depths, rising air temperatures, shortening winters), spatially explicit assessments of species energetics and risk will be important to understanding the vulnerability of subnivium-adapted species., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The vulnerability of species to climate change is jointly influenced by geographic phenotypic variation, acclimation and behavioural thermoregulation. The importance of interactions between these factors, however, remains poorly understood. We demonstrate how advances in mechanistic niche modelling can be used to integrate and assess the influence of these sources of uncertainty in forecasts of climate change impacts. We explored geographic variation in thermal tolerance (i.e. maximum and minimum thermal limits) and its potential for acclimation in juvenile European common frogs Rana temporaria along elevational gradients. Furthermore, we employed a mechanistic niche model (NicheMapR) to assess the relative contributions of phenotypic variation, acclimation and thermoregulation in determining the impacts of climate change on thermal safety margins and activity windows. Our analyses revealed that high-elevation populations had slightly wider tolerance ranges driven by increases in heat tolerance but lower potential for acclimation. Plausibly, wider thermal fluctuations at high elevations favour more tolerant but less plastic phenotypes, thus reducing the risk of encountering stressful temperatures during unpredictable extreme events. Biophysical models of thermal exposure indicated that observed phenotypic and plastic differences provide limited protection from changing climates. Indeed, the risk of reaching body temperatures beyond the species' thermal tolerance range was similar across elevations. In contrast, the ability to seek cooler retreat sites through behavioural adjustments played an essential role in buffering populations from thermal extremes predicted under climate change. Predicted climate change also altered current activity windows, but high-elevation populations were predicted to remain more temporally constrained than lowland populations. Our results demonstrate that elevational variation in thermal tolerances and acclimation capacity might be insufficient to buffer temperate amphibians from predicted climate change; instead, behavioural thermoregulation may be the only effective mechanism to avoid thermal stress under future climates., (© 2020 British Ecological Society.)

The structure of tubular transport networks is thought to underlie much of biological regularity, from individuals to ecosystems. A core assumption of transport network models is either area-preserving or area-increasing branching, such that the summed cross-sectional area of all child branches is equal to or greater than the cross-sectional area of their respective parent branch. For insects, the most diverse group of animals, the assumption of area-preserving branching of tracheae is, however, based on measurements of a single individual and an assumption of gas exchange by diffusion. Here we show that ants exhibit neither area-preserving nor area-increasing branching in their abdominal tracheal systems. We find for 20 species of ants that the sum of child tracheal cross-sectional areas is typically less than that of the parent branch (area-decreasing). The radius, rather than the area, of the parent branch is conserved across the sum of child branches. Interpretation of the tracheal system as one optimized for the release of carbon dioxide, while readily catering to oxygen demand, explains the branching pattern. Our results, together with widespread demonstration that gas exchange in insects includes, and is often dominated by, convection, indicate that for generality, network transport models must include consideration of systems with different architectures., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The continual development of ecological models and availability of high-resolution gridded climate surfaces have stimulated studies that link climate variables to functional traits of organisms. A primary constraint of these studies is the ability to reliably predict the microclimate that an organism experiences using macroscale climate inputs. This is particularly important in regions where access to empirical information is limited. Here, we contrast correlative models based on both ambient and sea surface temperatures to mechanistic modelling approaches to predict beach sand temperatures at depths relevant to sea turtle nesting. We show that mechanistic models are congruent with correlative models at predicting sand temperatures. We used these predictions to explore thermal variation across 46 mainland and island beaches that span the geographical range of sea turtle nesting in Western Australia. Using high resolution gridded climate surfaces and site-specific soil reflectance, we predict almost 9 °C variation in average annual temperatures between beaches, and nearly 10 °C variation in average temperatures during turtle nesting seasons. Validation of models demonstrated that predictions were typically within 2 °C of observations and, although most sites had high correlations (r 2  > 0.7), predictive capacity varied between sites. An advantage of the mechanistic model demonstrated here is that it can be used to explore the impacts of climate change on sea turtle nesting beach temperatures as, unlike correlative models, it can be forced with novel combinations of environmental variables., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest All authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process-explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs - regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species - we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Microclimatic data are required for many problems in pure and applied ecology. This data includes aboveground convective and radiative conditions as well as soil temperature and moisture. In cold regions, the connection between above- and belowground microclimates via snow cover is also critically important. Here I describe a data set of hourly microclimates for the continental United States, simulated from the years 1979 to 2017 across a grid of 2,287 locations approximately 60 km apart. The data were generated with the NicheMapR microclimate model, driven by 0.04° gridded daily meteorological forcing data (air temperature, wind speed, humidity, solar radiation, air pressure, and rainfall). The aboveground microclimate variables include horizontal plane solar radiation, solar zenith angle, sky temperature (from which downwelling longwave radiation can be computed), air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed at 1 and 200 cm height, and snow depth. The belowground variables include soil temperature, pore humidity, soil moisture, and soil water potential for 0, 2.5, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 cm belowground. The computations are for four shade levels (0%, 50%, 75%, and 90%). The predictions are validated against detailed soil temperature, soil moisture, and snow observations and show enhanced performance over existing microclimatic data for the United States. The data set can be used for a wide variety of applications, including the computation of heat and water budgets of organisms, the potential for vegetation growth, and the computation of stress and growth indices. The use of daily forcing data also allows assessments of the consequences of extreme events including heat waves and drought. Example applications are provided for computing plant growth potential, lizard egg development and body temperature, and mammalian energy and water requirements. No copyright or proprietary restrictions are associated with the use of this data set other than citation of this Data Paper., (© 2019 The Authors. Ecology © 2019 The Ecological Society of America.)

Insect life cycles are adapted to a seasonal climate by expressing alternative voltinism phenotypes-the number of generations in a year. Variation in voltinism phenotypes along latitudinal gradients may be generated by developmental traits at critical life stages, such as eggs. Both voltinism and egg development are thermally determined traits, yet independently derived models of voltinism and thermal adaptation refer to the evolution of dormancy and thermal sensitivity of development rate, respectively, as independent influences on life history. To reconcile these models and test their respective predictions, we characterized patterns of voltinism and thermal response of egg development rate along a latitudinal temperature gradient using the matchstick grasshopper genus Warramaba. We found remarkably strong variation in voltinism patterns, as well as corresponding egg dormancy patterns and thermal responses of egg development. Our results show that the switch in voltinism along the latitudinal gradient was explained by the combined predictions of the evolution of voltinism and of thermal adaptation. We suggest that latitudinal patterns in thermal responses and corresponding life histories need to consider the evolution of thermal response curves within the context of seasonal temperature cycles rather than based solely on optimality and trade-offs in performance. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.

Insights into the causal mechanisms that limit species distributions are likely to improve our ability to anticipate species range shifts in response to climate change. For species with complex life histories, a mechanistic understanding of how climate affects different lifecycle stages may be crucial for making accurate forecasts. Here, we use mechanistic niche modeling (NicheMapR) to derive "proximate" (mechanistic) variables for tadpole, juvenile, and adult Rana temporaria. We modeled the hydroperiod, and maximum and minimum temperatures of shallow (30 cm) ponds, as well as activity windows for juveniles and adults. We then used those ("proximate") variables in correlative ecological niche models (Maxent) to assess their role in limiting the species' current distribution, and to investigate the potential effects of climate change on R. temporaria across Europe. We further compared the results with a model based on commonly used macroclimatic ("distal") layers (i.e., bioclimatic layers from WorldClim). The maximum temperature of the warmest month (a macroclimatic variable) and maximum pond temperatures (a mechanistic variable) were the most important range-limiting factors, and maximum temperature thresholds were consistent with the observed upper thermal limit of R. temporaria tadpoles. We found that range shift forecasts in central Europe are far more pessimistic when using distal macroclimatic variables, compared to projections based on proximate mechanistic variables. However, both approaches predicted extensive decreases in climatic suitability in southern Europe, which harbors a significant fraction of the species' genetic diversity. We show how mechanistic modeling provides ways to depict gridded layers that directly reflect the microenvironments experienced by organisms at continental scales, and to reconstruct those predictors without extrapolation under novel future conditions. Furthermore, incorporating those predictors in correlative ecological niche models can help shed light on range-limiting processes, and can have substantial impacts on predictions of climate-induced range shifts., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Organisms vary widely in size, from microbes weighing 0.1 pg to trees weighing thousands of megagrams - a 10 21 -fold range similar to the difference in mass between an elephant and the Earth. Mass has a pervasive influence on biological processes, but the effect is usually non-proportional; for example, a tenfold increase in mass is typically accompanied by just a four- to sevenfold increase in metabolic rate. Understanding the cause of allometric scaling has been a long-standing problem in biology. Here, we examine the evolution of metabolic allometry in animals by linking microevolutionary processes to macroevolutionary patterns. We show that the genetic correlation between mass and metabolic rate is strong and positive in insects, birds and mammals. We then use these data to simulate the macroevolution of mass and metabolic rate, and show that the interspecific relationship between these traits in animals is consistent with evolution under persistent multivariate selection on mass and metabolic rate over long periods of time.

Colour variation across climatic gradients is a common ecogeographical pattern; yet there is long-standing contention over underlying causes, particularly selection for thermal benefits. We tested the evolutionary association between climate gradients and reflectance of near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths, which influence heat gain but are not visible to animals. We measured ultraviolet (UVA), visible (Vis) and NIR reflectance from calibrated images of 372 butterfly specimens from 60 populations (49 species, five families) spanning the Australian continent. Consistent with selection for thermal benefits, the association between climate and reflectance was stronger for NIR than UVA-Vis wavelengths. Furthermore, climate predicted reflectance of the thorax and basal wing, which are critical to thermoregulation; but it did not predict reflectance of the entire wing, which has a variable role in thermoregulation depending on basking behaviour. These results provide evidence that selection for thermal benefits has shaped the reflectance properties of butterflies.

Background: Based on our pre-clinical data, we hypothesized that sequencing chemotherapy with erlotinib would increase the tumor response rate in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer., Patients and Methods: A phase II trial (planned n=58) using second-line therapy for metastatic colorectal cancer with either oxaliplatin-based (mFOLFOX6) or irinotecan-based (FOLFIRI) combination chemotherapy and 100 mg erlotinib daily on days 3-8 after each infusion (days 1 and 2) every 14 days. The primary endpoint was the response rate compared to the historical response rate., Results: The FOLFIRI/erlotinib arm met the pre-specified response rate criteria of at least 10% to expand accrual to the intended sample size. The trial was halted after an interim safety analysis (n=11) due to excess grade 3 neutropenia, dose reductions and treatment delays. Grade 3 or 4 neutropenia was observed in 64% of patients. The response rate was 18%., Conclusion: In second-line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer, mFOLFOX6 or FOLFIRI with erlotinib in a sequence-dependent fashion is not feasible despite potential promising activity., (Copyright© 2019, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.)

Thrombosis of unusual venous sites encompasses a large part of consultative hematology and is encountered routinely by practicing hematologists. Contrary to the more commonly encountered lower extremity venous thrombosis and common cardiovascular disorders, the various thromboses outlined in this review have unique presentations, pathophysiology, workup, and treatments that all hematologists should be aware of. This review attempts to outline the most up to date literature on cerebral, retinal, upper extremity, hepatic, portal, splenic, mesenteric, and renal vein thrombosis, focusing on the incidence, pathophysiology, provoking factors, and current recommended treatments for each type of unusual thrombosis to provide a useful and practical review for the hematologist., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Matchstick grasshoppers are a unique and diverse element of Australia's insect fauna with great potential as a model system for ecological, evolutionary and biogeographical studies. The genus Warramaba comprises four bisexual species. It is of special interest from an evolutionary point of view because two parthenogenetic lineages (the Standard and Boulder-Zanthus phylads of W. virgo) have evolved through hybridization events between two of the sexual species. Despite the extensive genetic and systematic work that has been done on this genus, three of the bisexual species are yet to be formally named (P196, P169 and P125) and no key exists for their identification. Here I formally describe these species, respectively, as W. whitei sp. nov., W. flavolineata sp. nov. and W. grandis sp. nov. and split the parthenogenetic species W. virgo into two distinct species (the addition of W. ngadju sp. nov.). I also provide a photographic guide and key to the identification of all species in the genus.

Biologists have focused their attention on the optical functions of light reflected at ultraviolet and human-visible wavelengths. However, most radiant energy in sunlight occurs in 'unseen' near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths. The capacity to reflect solar radiation at NIR wavelengths may enable animals to control heat gain and remain within their critical thermal limits. Here, using a continent-wide phylogenetic analysis of Australian birds, we show that species occupying hot, arid environments reflect more radiant energy in NIR wavelengths than species in thermally benign environments, even when controlling for variation in visible colour. Biophysical models confirm that smaller species gain a greater advantage from high NIR reflectivity in hot, arid environments, reducing water loss from compensatory evaporative cooling by up to 2% body mass per hour. These results highlight the importance of NIR reflectivity for thermal protection, which may become increasingly critical as the frequency of extreme climatic events increases.

The phenological response is among the most important traits affecting a species' sensitivity to climate. In insects, strongly seasonal environments often select for a univoltine life cycle such that one seasonal extreme is avoided as an inactive stage. Through understanding the underlying mechanisms for univoltinism, and the consequences of its failure, we can better predict insect responses to climate change. Here we combine empirical data and simulation studies to investigate the consequences of an unusual diapause mechanism in a parthenogenetic matchstick grasshopper, Warramaba virgo, from arid southern Australia. Our field body temperature measurements indicate that this species is a thermoconformer and our laboratory studies of the thermal response of feeding rate imply strong constraints on winter activity. However, the species exhibits no obligate winter diapause, and eggs can develop in 1 month under constant temperatures approximating the mean soil temperature at the time of oviposition (summer). We show that diurnal temperature cycles exceeding a peak of 36 °C inhibit egg development in summer, and that this is sufficient to prevent autumnal hatching of eggs. Development is also strongly retarded below 24 °C. Microclimate-driven simulation studies of egg development show that these thermal responses provide robust maintenance of a univoltine life cycle, thereby resulting in survival of heat stress as an egg (due to limited developmental state) and avoidance of cold stress as a nymph and adult (due to overwintering in the soil as an egg)., (© 2018 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.)

For ectotherms such as lizards, the importance of behavioural thermoregulation in avoiding thermal extremes is well-established and is increasingly acknowledged in modern studies of climate warming and its impacts. Less appreciated and understood are the buffering roles of retreat sites and activity phase, in part because of logistical challenges of studying below-ground activity. Burrowing and nocturnal activity are key behavioural adaptations that have enabled a diverse range of reptiles to survive extreme environmental temperatures within hot desert regions. Yet, the direct impact of recent global warming on activity potential has been hypothesised to have caused extinctions in desert lizards, including the Australian arid zone skink Liopholis kintorei. We test the relevance of this hypothesis through a detailed characterisation of the above- and below-ground thermal and hydric microclimates available to, and used by, L. kintorei. We integrate operative temperatures with observed body temperatures to construct daily activity budgets, including the inference of subterranean behaviour. We then assess the likelihood that contemporary and future local extinctions in this species, and those of similar burrowing habits, could be explained by the direct effects of warming on its activity budget and exposure to thermal extremes. We found that L. kintorei spent only 4% of its time active on the surface, primarily at dusk, and that overall potential surface activity will be increased, not restricted, with climate warming. The burrow system provides an exceptional buffer to current and future maximum extremes of temperature (≈40°C reduction from potential surface temperatures), and desiccation (burrows near 100% humidity). Therefore, any climate warming impacts on this species are likely to be indirect. Our findings reflect the general buffering capacity of underground microclimates, therefore, our conclusions for L. kintorei are more generally applicable to nocturnal and crepuscular ectotherms, and highlight the need to consider the buffering properties of retreat sites and activity phase when forecasting climate change impacts., (© 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.)

PCR is effective in detecting bacterial DNA in samples, but it is unable to differentiate viable bacteria from inactivated cells or free DNA fragments. New PCR-based analytical strategies have been developed to address this limitation. Molecular viability testing (MVT) correlates bacterial viability with the ability to rapidly synthesize species-specific rRNA precursors (pre-rRNA) in response to brief nutritional stimulation. Previous studies demonstrated that MVT can assess bacterial inactivation by chlorine, serum, and low-temperature pasteurization. Here, we demonstrate that MVT can detect inactivation of Escherichia coli , Aeromonas hydrophila , and Enterococcus faecalis cells by UV irradiation. Some UV-inactivated E. coli cells transiently retained the ability to synthesize pre-rRNA postirradiation (generating false-positive MVT results), but this activity ceased within 1 h following UV exposure. Viable but transiently undetectable (by culture) E. coli cells were consistently detected by MVT. An alternative viability testing method, viability PCR (vPCR), correlates viability with cell envelope integrity. This method did not distinguish viable bacteria from UV-inactivated bacteria under some conditions, indicating that the inactivated cells retained intact cell envelopes. MVT holds promise as a means to rapidly assess microbial inactivation by UV treatment. IMPORTANCE UV irradiation is increasingly being used to disinfect water, food, and other materials for human use. Confirming the effectiveness of UV disinfection remains a challenging task. In particular, microbiological methods that rely on rapid detection of microbial DNA can yield misleading results, due to the detection of remnant DNA associated with dead microbial cells. This report describes a novel method that rapidly distinguishes living microbial cells from dead microbial cells after UV disinfection., (Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.)

Animal coloration has multiple functions including thermoregulation, camouflage, and social signaling, and the requirements of each function may sometimes conflict. Many terrestrial ectotherms accommodate the multiple functions of color through color change. However, the relative importance of these functions and how color-changing species accommodate them when they do conflict are poorly understood because we lack data on color change in the wild. Here, we show that the color of individual radio-tracked bearded dragon lizards, Pogona vitticeps, correlates strongly with background color and less strongly, but significantly, with temperature. We found no evidence that individuals simultaneously optimize camouflage and thermoregulation by choosing light backgrounds when hot or dark backgrounds when cold. In laboratory experiments, lizards showed both UV-visible (300-700 nm) and near-infrared (700-2,100 nm) reflectance changes in response to different background and temperature treatments, consistent with camouflage and thermoregulatory functions, respectively, but with no interaction between the two. Overall, our results suggest that wild bearded dragons change color to improve both thermoregulation and camouflage but predominantly adjust for camouflage, suggesting that compromising camouflage may entail a greater potential immediate survival cost.

Mechanistic models of the impacts of climate change on insects can be seen as very specific hypotheses about the connections between microclimate, ecophysiology and vital rates. These models must adequately capture stage-specific responses, carry-over effects between successive stages, and the evolutionary potential of the functional traits involved in complex insect life-cycles. Here we highlight key considerations for current approaches to mechanistic modelling of insect responses to climate change. We illustrate these considerations within a general mechanistic framework incorporating the thermodynamic linkages between microclimate and heat, water and nutrient exchange throughout the life-cycle under different climate scenarios. We emphasise how such a holistic perspective will provide increasingly robust insights into how insects adapt and respond to changing climates., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Climate refugia are regions that animals can retreat to, persist in and potentially then expand from under changing environmental conditions. Most forecasts of climate change refugia for species are based on correlative species distribution models (SDMs) using long-term climate averages, projected to future climate scenarios. Limitations of such methods include the need to extrapolate into novel environments and uncertainty regarding the extent to which proximate variables included in the model capture processes driving distribution limits (and thus can be assumed to provide reliable predictions under new conditions). These limitations are well documented; however, their impact on the quality of climate refugia predictions is difficult to quantify. Here, we develop a detailed bioenergetics model for the koala. It indicates that range limits are driven by heat-induced water stress, with the timing of rainfall and heat waves limiting the koala in the warmer parts of its range. We compare refugia predictions from the bioenergetics model with predictions from a suite of competing correlative SDMs under a range of future climate scenarios. SDMs were fitted using combinations of long-term climate and weather extremes variables, to test how well each set of predictions captures the knowledge embedded in the bioenergetics model. Correlative models produced broadly similar predictions to the bioenergetics model across much of the species' current range - with SDMs that included weather extremes showing highest congruence. However, predictions in some regions diverged significantly when projecting to future climates due to the breakdown in correlation between climate variables. We provide unique insight into the mechanisms driving koala distribution and illustrate the importance of subtle relationships between the timing of weather events, particularly rain relative to hot-spells, in driving species-climate relationships and distributions. By unpacking the mechanisms captured by correlative SDMs, we can increase our certainty in forecasts of climate change impacts on species., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Entamoeba histolytica causes intestinal disease in endemic settings throughout the world. Diagnosis of E. histolytica infection would be improved by the identification of biomarkers that are expressed by cysts of E. histolytica, but not by cysts of closely related commensal species of Entamoeba. Herein, we describe two novel monoclonal antibodies (1A4 and 1D3) produced against a spacer region of the E. histolytica Jacob2 lectin, an outer cyst wall protein. These reagents demonstrated no cross-reaction to E. dispar recombinant antigen and low picomolar molecular detection limits when paired in ELISA sandwich assays. In an immunofluorescence microscopy assay, the α-Jacob2 murine antibodies labeled cysts of three xenically cultured E. histolytica isolates but did not label cysts of three E. bangladeshi isolates. Monoclonal antibody 1A4 did not cross-react with xenic cultures of three E. dispar isolates, demonstrating specificity to E. histolytica, while monoclonal antibody 1D3 cross-reacted with two out of three E. dispar isolates. Both antibodies labeled cysts in formalin-fixed slides, a potential logistical advantage in some settings. The monoclonal antibody 1A4 was also used in an immunofluorescence microscopy assay with formalin-fixed stool specimens. Seven out of ten ELISA-positive stool specimens exhibited 1A4-labeled cyst-like objects, compared to one out of seven ELISA-negative specimens. These results demonstrate that antibodies generated against the flexible spacer of E. histolytica Jacob2 lectin recognize and bind to Jacob2 protein in whole cysts and are capable of differentiating Entamoeba species in fixed specimens. Thus, Jacob2 is a promising biomarker for use in diagnosing E. histolytica infection.

Foraging time may be constrained by a suite of phenomena including weather, which can restrict a species' activity and energy intake. This is recognized as pivotal for many species whose distributions are known to correlate with climate, including kangaroos, although such impacts are rarely quantified. We explore how differences in shade seeking, a thermoregulatory behavior, of 2 closely-related kangaroo species, Macropus rufus (red kangaroos) and M. fuliginosus (western grey kangaroos), might reflect differences in their distributions across Australia. We observed foraging and shade-seeking behavior in the field and, together with local weather observations, calculated threshold radiant temperatures (based on solar and infrared radiant heat loads) over which the kangaroos retreated to shade. We apply these calculated tolerance thresholds to hourly microclimatic estimates derived from daily-gridded weather data to predict activity constraints across the Australian continent over a 10-year period. M. fuliginosus spent more time than M. rufus in the shade (7.6 ± 0.7 h versus 6.4 ± 0.9 h) and more time foraging (11.8 ± 0.5 h vs. 10.0 ± 0.6 h), although total time resting was equivalent (∼8.2 h). M. rufus tolerated 19°C higher radiant temperatures than M. fuliginosus (89°C versus 70°C radiant temperature). Across Australia, we predicted M. fuliginosus to be more restricted to shade than M. rufus , with higher absolute shade requirements farther north. These results corroborate previous findings that M. rufus is more adept at dealing with heat than M. fuliginosus and indicate that M. rufus is less dependent on shade on a continental scale.

Whilst contemporary climatic changes are small in magnitude compared to those predicted for the coming decades, they have already been linked to species range shifts and local extinctions. Elucidating the drivers behind species' responses to contemporary climate change will better inform management strategies for vulnerable and pest species alike. A recent proposal to explain worldwide local extinctions in lizards is that increasing maximum temperatures have constrained lizard activity time in the breeding season beyond extinction thresholds. Here we document a significant population decline and potential local extinction at the warm (northern) range margin of the tawny dragon, Ctenophorus decresii, a rock-dwelling lizard from the Flinders Ranges in semi-arid Australia. We developed and tested a biophysical model of tawny dragon thermoregulatory behaviour and drove the model with daily weather data for the period 1990-2009 across the Flinders Ranges. Our results indicate that potential annual activity time has likely increased over this period throughout the historic range, with within-season declines only in the summer months at the northern range limit. However, populations that have declined since 2000 have also likely experienced higher active body temperatures and more stringent retreat-site requirements (deeper crevices) than have regions where the species remains common, during a period of declining rainfall. Our laboratory estimates of thermal preference in this species were insensitive to altered nutritional and hydric state. Thus it is possible that recent population declines are linked to desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall. Our study illustrates that simple indices of the impact of climate warming on animals, such as activity restriction, may in fact reflect a variety of potential mechanisms whose ultimate outcome will be contingent on other factors such as water and shelter availability., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

When possible, many species will shift in elevation or latitude in response to rising temperatures. However, before such shifts occur, individuals will first tolerate environmental change and then modify their behavior to maintain heat balance. Behavioral thermoregulation allows animals a range of climatic tolerances and makes predicting geographic responses under future warming scenarios challenging. Because behavioral modification may reduce an individual's fecundity by, for example, limiting foraging time and thus caloric intake, we must consider the range of behavioral options available for thermoregulation to accurately predict climate change impacts on individual species. To date, few studies have identified mechanistic links between an organism's daily activities and the need to thermoregulate. We used a biophysical model, Niche Mapper, to mechanistically model microclimate conditions and thermoregulatory behavior for a temperature-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Niche Mapper accurately simulated microclimate conditions, as well as empirical metabolic chamber data for a range of fur properties, animal sizes, and environmental parameters. Niche Mapper predicted pikas would be behaviorally constrained because of the need to thermoregulate during the hottest times of the day. We also showed that pikas at low elevations could receive energetic benefits by being smaller in size and maintaining summer pelage during longer stretches of the active season under a future warming scenario. We observed pika behavior for 288 h in Glacier National Park, Montana, and thermally characterized their rocky, montane environment. We found that pikas were most active when temperatures were cooler, and at sites characterized by high elevations and north-facing slopes. Pikas became significantly less active across a suite of behaviors in the field when temperatures surpassed 20°C, which supported a metabolic threshold predicted by Niche Mapper. In general, mechanistic predictions and empirical observations were congruent. This research is unique in providing both an empirical and mechanistic description of the effects of temperature on a mammalian sentinel of climate change, the American pika. Our results suggest that previously underinvestigated characteristics, specifically fur properties and body size, may play critical roles in pika populations' response to climate change. We also demonstrate the potential importance of considering behavioral thermoregulation and microclimate variability when predicting animal responses to climate change.

Insects are typified by their small size, large numbers, impressive reproductive output and rapid growth. However, insect growth is not simply rapid; rather, insects follow a qualitatively distinct trajectory to many other animals. Here we present a mechanistic growth model for insects and show that increasing specific assimilation during the growth phase can explain the near-exponential growth trajectory of insects. The presented model is tested against growth data on 50 insects, and compared against other mechanistic growth models. Unlike the other mechanistic models, our growth model predicts energy reserves per biomass to increase with age, which implies a higher production efficiency and energy density of biomass in later instars. These predictions are tested against data compiled from the literature whereby it is confirmed that insects increase their production efficiency (by 24 percentage points) and energy density (by 4 J mg(-1)) between hatching and the attainment of full size. The model suggests that insects achieve greater production efficiencies and enhanced growth rates by increasing specific assimilation and increasing energy reserves per biomass, which are less costly to maintain than structural biomass. Our findings illustrate how the explanatory and predictive power of mechanistic growth models comes from their grounding in underlying biological processes., (© 2015 The Author(s).)

Burrowing is an important form of locomotion in reptiles, but no study has examined the energetic cost of burrowing for reptiles. This is significant because burrowing is the most energetically expensive mode of locomotion undertaken by animals and many burrowing species therefore show specialisations for their subterranean lifestyle. We examined the effect of temperature and substrate characteristics (coarse sand or fine sand) on the net energetic cost of burrowing (NCOB) and burrowing rate in two species of the Egernia group of skinks (Liopholis striata and Liopholis inornata) compared with other burrowing animals. We further tested for morphological specialisations among burrowing species by comparing the relationship between body shape and retreat preference in Egernia group skinks. For L. striata and L. inornata, NCOB is 350 times more expensive than the predicted cost of pedestrian terrestrial locomotion. Temperature had a positive effect on burrowing rate for both species, and a negative effect on NCOB for L. striata but not L. inornata. Both NCOB and burrowing rate were independent of substrate type. Burrows constructed by skinks had a smaller cross-sectional area than those constructed by mammals of comparable mass, and NCOB of skinks was lower than that of mammals of similar mass. After accounting for body size, retreat preference was significantly correlated with body shape in Egernia group skinks. Species of Egernia group skinks that use burrows for retreats have narrower bodies and shorter front limbs than other species. We conclude that the morphological specialisations of burrowing skinks allow them to construct relatively narrow burrows, thereby reducing NCOB and the total cost of constructing their burrow retreats., (© 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.)

Design constraints imposed by increasing size cause metabolic rate in animals to increase more slowly than mass. This ubiquitous biological phenomenon is referred to as metabolic scaling. However, mechanistic explanations for interspecific metabolic scaling do not apply to ontogenetic size changes within a species, implying different mechanisms for scaling phenomena. Here, we show that the dynamic energy budget theory approach of compartmentalizing biomass into reserve and structural components provides a unified framework for understanding ontogenetic and interspecific metabolic scaling. We formulate the theory for insects and show that it can account for ontogenetic metabolic scaling during the embryonic and larval phases, as well as the U-shaped respiration curve during pupation. After correcting for the predicted ontogenetic scaling effects, which we show to follow universal curves, the scaling of respiration between species is approximated by a three-quarters power law, supporting past empirical studies on insect metabolic scaling and our theoretical predictions. The ability to explain ontogenetic and interspecific metabolic scaling effects under one consistent framework suggests that the partitioning of biomass into reserve and structure is a necessary foundation to a general metabolic theory.

Accurate forecasts of biological invasions are crucial for managing invasion risk but are hampered by niche shifts resulting from evolved environmental tolerances (fundamental niche shifts) or the presence of novel biotic and abiotic conditions in the invaded range (realized niche shifts). Distinguishing between these kinds of niche shifts is impossible with traditional, correlative approaches to invasion forecasts, which exclusively consider the realized niche. Here we overcome this challenge by combining a physiologically mechanistic model of the fundamental niche with correlative models based on the realized niche to study the global invasion of the cane toad Rhinella marina. We find strong evidence that the success of R. marina in Australia reflects a shift in the species' realized niche, as opposed to evolutionary shifts in range-limiting traits. Our results demonstrate that R. marina does not fill its fundamental niche in its native South American range and that areas of niche unfilling coincide with the presence of a closely related species with which R. marina hybridizes. Conversely, in Australia, where coevolved taxa are absent, R. marina largely fills its fundamental niche in areas behind the invasion front. The general approach taken here of contrasting fundamental and realized niche models provides key insights into the role of biotic interactions in shaping range limits and can inform effective management strategies not only for invasive species but also for assisted colonization under climate change.

Climatic factors influence the distribution of ectotherms, raising the possibility that distributions of many species will shift rapidly under climate change and/or that species will become locally extinct. Recent studies have compared performance curves of species from different climate zones and suggested that tropical species may be more susceptible to climate change than those from temperate environments. However, in other comparisons involving responses to thermal extremes it has been suggested that mid-latitude populations are more susceptible. Using a group of 10 closely related Drosophila species with known tropical or widespread distribution, we undertake a detailed investigation of their growth performance curves and their tolerance to thermal extremes. Thermal sensitivity of life history traits (fecundity, developmental success, and developmental time) and adult heat resistance were similar in tropical and widespread species groups, while widespread species had higher adult cold tolerance under all acclimation regimes. Laboratory measurements of either population growth capacity or acute tolerance to heat and cold extremes were compared to daily air temperature under current (2002-2007) and future (2100) conditions to investigate if these traits could explain current distributions and, therefore, also forecast future effects of climate change. Life history traits examining the thermal sensitivity of population growth proved to be a poor predictor of current species distributions. In contrast, we validate that adult tolerance to thermal extremes provides a good correlate of current distributions. Thus, in their current distribution range, most of the examined species experience heat exposure close to, but rarely above, the functional heat resistance limit. Similarly, adult functional cold resistance proved a good predictor of species distribution in cooler climates. When using the species' functional tolerance limits under a global warming scenario, we find that both tropical and widespread Drosophila species will face a similar proportional reduction in distribution range under future warming., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

How climate impacts organisms depends not only on their physiology, but also whether they can buffer themselves against climate variability via their behaviour. One of the way species can withstand hot temperatures is by seeking out cool microclimates, but only if their habitat provides such refugia. Here, we describe a novel thermoregulatory strategy in an arboreal mammal, the koala Phascolarctos cinereus. During hot weather, koalas enhanced conductive heat loss by seeking out and resting against tree trunks that were substantially cooler than ambient air temperature. Using a biophysical model of heat exchange, we show that this behaviour greatly reduces the amount of heat that must be lost via evaporative cooling, potentially increasing koala survival during extreme heat events. While it has long been known that internal temperatures of trees differ from ambient air temperatures, the relevance of this for arboreal and semi-arboreal mammals has not previously been explored. Our results highlight the important role of tree trunks as aboveground 'heat sinks', providing cool local microenvironments not only for koalas, but also for all tree-dwelling species., (© 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.)

The mechanistic links between climate and the environmental sensitivities of organisms occur through the microclimatic conditions that organisms experience. Here we present a dataset of gridded hourly estimates of typical microclimatic conditions (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, sky radiation and substrate temperatures from the surface to 1 m depth) at high resolution (~15 km) for the globe. The estimates are for the middle day of each month, based on long-term average macroclimates, and include six shade levels and three generic substrates (soil, rock and sand) per pixel. These data are suitable for deriving biophysical estimates of the heat, water and activity budgets of terrestrial organisms.