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This report describes the current status and limitations of the power sector in Burkina Faso and develops a new methodology that through spatial analysis processes aims to provide a possible pathway for universal electricity access through a sustainable energy mix. Two percent of the rural population in Burkina Faso has access to electricity and supply is lacking at many social structures such as schools and hospitals. Energy access achievements in Burkina Faso are still very modest. The rural electrification strategy for Burkina Faso is scattered in several electricity sector development policies: there is a need of defining a concrete action plan. Planning and coordination between grid extension and off-grid electrification programmes is essential to reach a long-term sustainable energy model and to avoid high unnecessary infrastructure investments. This report describes the development and the results obtained with a dynamic planning tool to support national government and development partners in defining an alternative electrification plan. Currently, the common national policy for electrification is dominated almost exclusively by grid extension with the government subsidising fossil fuel electricity production. However, the results of our analysis suggest that an electrification plan mainly based on further grid extension becomes inefficient and unsustainable in order to reach the national energy access targets. Our results also suggest that Burkina Faso’s rural electrification strategy should be driven by distributed minigrids powered by local renewable resources. We find that this approach would connect more people to power more quickly, and would reduce imported fossil fuel dependence/consumption that would otherwise be necessary for grid extension options., JRC.C.2-Energy Efficiency and Renewables

The present Master Thesis focuses on islands' sustainable development and contains the output of a research activity addressing several sustainability issues in an integrated manner. It creates a nexus analysis framework, where energy and transport systems are analysed in parallel while interactions with the environment and water infrastructure are also examined. The Thesis builds on three main pillars i.e. the analyses of energy systems, new transport schemes for the islands and a qualitative-quantitative analysis of different strategies. \ud \ud \ud An energy model was specifically developed for islands to assess challenges and opportunities of transforming electricity systems and the potential role of modern renewable energy sources (RES). The model was applied in selected test-cases and processed up-to-date information. A second part of the nexus analysis investigated the potential role of emerging and revolutionary transport concepts in the island setting. Potential synergies were also identified to enable a harmonic operation of transport and energy systems. As a third pillar, the research analysed the different strategies. It processed the priorities defined by a selected group of 44 specialists (scientists, decision makers, industry and project developers) with experience on islands' sustainable development. Selected experts filled a structured questionnaire, specifically designed for the needs of islands, and the collected responses were processed using a Q-technique. The results translated the qualitative experts' input to quantitative output, a valuable information to be used in decision making.\ud \ud \ud This Thesis supports thus a sustainable development paradigm change by providing evidence about the importance of redefining islands' energy and transport systems in an integrated manner. It highlights the available synergies, provides modelled projections for the future and evidence to understand available strategies according to specialists. It is an attempt to provide science-based input to influence sustainable development strategies for the island societies, with measurable impacts for the economies and environments.

This report provides insights on energy supply and demand, power generation, investments and total system costs, water consumption and withdrawal by the energy sector as well as carbon dioxide emissions for the African continent. The energy supply systems of forty-seven African countries are modelled individually and connected via gas and electricity trade links to identify the cost-optimal solution to satisfy each country's total final energy demand for the period 2015-2065. In this analysis, The Electricity Model Base for Africa (TEMBA) was extended to include a simple representation of the full energy system. It was also updated to include new data. Simulations were run using the medium- to long-term Open Source Energy Modelling System tool (OSeMOSYS). The TEMBA model produces aggregate results for the whole continental energy system and more detailed ones for the power system of each African country. The scenarios examined in this study consider different emission trajectories and technology availability. The Reference scenario considers the national energy policies that were in place until 2017, whereas the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios examine emission levels aligned with the climate targets agreed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement. The scenarios have been aligned with the "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Greenhouse gas emissions and energy balances" report of the Joint Research Centre (Keramidas et al., 2018). The results demonstrate that power generation capacity will need to increase 10-fold from 2015 to 2065 to meet projected electricity demands. A significant proportion of this capacity will likely consist of renewable energy sources, particularly under the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios, as technology costs fall. On the contrary, there will only be little investment for new coal generation. In addition, a number of African countries will invest in nuclear power plants and CCS technologies (biomass, coal, gas) in the future in order to achieve the emission targets set in the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. The results also indicate how water demand from the energy sector could evolve. Under the Reference scenario, it is estimated that by 2065 the African energy system will contribute to a water withdrawal of approximately 4% of the total renewable water resources (TRWR) in Africa (3,950 bcm) (FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, n.d.). On the one hand, this share appears meagre, but in reality, this number must be analysed in the perspective of the nexus between water for food, energy, household and productive uses. Most of the thermal power infrastructure is not located in remote places and is rather near to population centres. This creates an added complexity to future infrastructure planning. On the other hand, water withdrawals are expected to decrease to 1.2% and 1.6% of TRWR in the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios respectively by 2065 owing to deep decarbonisation of the energy sector., JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Union