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With improvements in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) diagnosis and treatment, more patients are surviving for longer periods. A French population of 9453 AML patients aged ≥15 years diagnosed from 1995 to 2015 was studied to quantify the proportion cured (P), time to cure (TTC) and median survival of patients who are not cured (MedS). Net survival (NS) was estimated using a flexible model adjusted for age and sex in sixteen AML subtypes. When cure assumption was acceptable, the flexible cure model was used to estimate P, TTC and MedS for the uncured patients. The 5-year NS varied from 68% to 9% in men and from 77% to 11% in women in acute promyelocytic leukemia (AML-APL) and in therapy-related AML (t-AML), respectively. Major age-differenced survival was observed for patients with a diagnosis of AML with recurrent cytogenetic abnormalities. A poorer survival in younger patients was found in t-AML and AML with minimal differentiation. An atypical survival profile was found for acute myelomonocytic leukemia and AML without maturation in both sexes and for AML not otherwise specified (only for men) according to age, with a better prognosis for middle-aged compared to younger patients. Sex disparity regarding survival was observed in younger patients with t-AML diagnosed at 25 years of age (+28% at 5 years in men compared to women) and in AML with minimal differentiation (+23% at 5 years in women compared to men). All AML subtypes included an age group for which the assumption of cure was acceptable, although P varied from 90% in younger women with AML-APL to 3% in older men with acute monoblastic and monocytic leukemia. Increased P was associated with shorter TTC. A sizeable proportion of AML patients do not achieve cure, and MedS for these did not exceed 23 months. We identify AML subsets where cure assumption is negative, thus pointing to priority areas for future research efforts.

Background: As cancer treatment, biotherapies can be as effective as chemotherapy while reducing the risk of secondary effects, so that they can be taken over longer periods than conventional chemotherapy. Thus, some trials aimed at assessing the benefit of maintaining biotherapies during chemotherapy-free intervals (CFI). For example, the recent PRODIGE9 trial assessed the effect of maintaining bevacizumab during CFI in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients. However, its analysis was hindered by a small difference of exposure to the treatment between the randomized groups and by a large proportion of early drop outs, leading to a potentially unbalanced distribution of confounding factors among the trial completers. To address these limitations, we re-analyzed the PRODIGE9 data to assess the effects of different exposure metrics on all-cause mortality of patients with mCRC using methods originally developed for observational studies., Methods: To account for the actual patterns of drug use by individual patients and for possible cumulative effects, we used five alternative time-varying exposure metrics: (i) cumulative dose, (ii) quantiles of the cumulative dose, (iii) standardized cumulative dose, (iv) Theoretical Blood Concentration (TBC), and (v) Weighted Cumulative Exposure (WCE). The last two metrics account for the timing of drug use. Treatment effects were estimated using adjusted Hazard Ratio from multivariable Cox proportional hazards models., Results: After excluding 112 patients who died during the induction period, we analyzed data on 382 patients, among whom 320 (83.8%) died. All time-varying exposures improved substantially the model's fit to data, relative to using only the time-invariant randomization group. All exposures indicated a protective effect for higher cumulative bevacizumab doses. The best-fitting WCE and TBC models accounted for both the cumulative effects and the different impact of doses taken at different times., Conclusions: All time-varying analyses, regardless of the exposure metric used, consistently suggested protective effects of higher cumulative bevacizumab doses. However, the results may partly reflect the presence of a confusion bias. Complementing the main ITT analysis of maintenance trials with an analysis of potential cumulative effects of treatment actually taken can provide new insights, but the results must be interpreted with caution because they do not benefit from the randomization., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00952029 . Registered 8 August 2009.

Background: Few studies have estimated the probability of being cured for cancer patients. This study aims to estimate population-based indicators of cancer cure in Europe by type, sex, age and period., Methods: 7.2 million cancer patients (42 population-based cancer registries in 17 European countries) diagnosed at ages 15-74 years in 1990-2007 with follow-up to 2008 were selected from the EUROCARE-5 dataset. Mixture-cure models were used to estimate: (i) life expectancy of fatal cases (LEF); (ii) cure fraction (CF) as proportion of patients with same death rates as the general population; (iii) time to cure (TTC) as time to reach 5-year conditional relative survival (CRS) >95%., Results: LEF ranged from 10 years for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia patients to <6 months for those with liver, pancreas, brain, gallbladder and lung cancers. It was 7.7 years for patients with prostate cancer at age 65-74 years and >5 years for women with breast cancer. The CF was 94% for testis, 87% for thyroid cancer in women and 70% in men, 86% for skin melanoma in women and 76% in men, 66% for breast, 63% for prostate and <10% for liver, lung and pancreatic cancers. TTC was <5 years for testis and thyroid cancer patients diagnosed below age 55 years, and <10 years for stomach, colorectal, corpus uteri and melanoma patients of all ages. For breast and prostate cancers, a small excess (CRS < 95%) remained for at least 15 years., Conclusions: Estimates from this analysis should help to reduce unneeded medicalization and costs. They represent an opportunity to improve patients' quality of life., (© The Author(s) 2020; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Background: Small bowel cancer is not a single entity. Population-based studies taking into account histological diversity are scarce. The aim of this study was to report on their trends in incidence by histology in France over the past 20 years., Methods: All patients with a small bowel cancer diagnosed in 15 French administrative areas covered by a registry from the network of French cancer registries (FRANCIM) were included. Age-standardized incidence rates were estimated using the world standard population. Incidence rates were calculated by gender, age group, histology, and 5-year period., Results: The overall age-standardized incidence rates were 1.46/100,000 inhabitants in men and 0.9/100,000 inhabitants in women. Adenocarcinoma was the most common histological type (38%), followed by neuroendocrine tumors (35%), lymphoma (15%) and sarcoma (12%). Age at diagnosis and tumor location differed between adenocarcinoma and neuroendocrine tumors. The incidence of all four tumor types increased significantly over the 20-year period, with the exception of lymphoma in men. The annual percentage change for neuroendocrine tumors was 3.89% in men and 3.61% in women; for sarcoma, it was 3.38% and 4.08%, respectively. The incidence of adenocarcinoma and lymphoma also increased in women with an annual percentage change of 3.05% and 3.32%, respectively., Conclusion: Small bowel cancer incidence has increased over time. This increase occurred with different amplitudes and patterns in the four major histological types. The improvement in imaging techniques could partly explain this increase. It is necessary to determine whether predisposing conditions may contribute to this change.

Objective: The aim of this study was to assess long-term survival after stroke and to compare survival profiles of patients according to stroke subtypes, age, and sex, using relative survival (RS) method., Methods: All patients with a first-ever stroke were prospectively recorded in the population-based Dijon Stroke Registry from 1987 to 2016. RS is the survival that would be observed if stroke was the only cause of death. Ten-year RS was estimated using a flexible parametric model of the cumulative excess mortality rate, which was obtained by matching the observed all-cause mortality in the stroke cohort to the expected mortality in the general population. A separate model was fitted for each stroke subtypes, first fitted for each age and sex separately, and then adjusted for age and sex., Results: In total, 5,259 patients (mean age 74.9 ± 14.3 years, 53% women) were recorded including 4,469 ischemic strokes (IS), 655 intracerebral hemorrhages (ICH), and 135 undetermined strokes. In IS patients, unadjusted RS was 82% at 1 year and decreased to 62% at 10 years. Adjusted RS showed a lower survival in older age groups (p < 0.001), but no difference between men and women (p = 0.119). In ICH patients, unadjusted RS was 56 and 42% at 1 and 10 years, respectively, with a lower adjusted survival in older age groups (p < 0.001), but no sex differences (p = 0.184)., Conclusion: This study showed that RS after stroke is lower in older than in younger patients but without significant sex differences, and survival profiles differ according to stroke subtypes. Since RS allows a better estimation of stroke-related death than observed survival does, especially in old patients, such a method is adapted to provide reliable information when considering long-term outcome., (© 2019 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Aim Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is commonly associated with Type 2 diabetes. Recently, it has been suggested that NAFLD is also frequently associated with Type 1 diabetes and diabetic complications. In this study, we set out to determine whether Type 1 diabetes was associated with liver fat content measured using magnetic resonance imaging. Methods One hundred and twenty-eight patients with Type 1 diabetes, 264 patients with Type 2 diabetes and 67 participants without diabetes were included in this study. Hepatic steatosis was defined as a liver fat content > 5.5%. Results People with Type 1 diabetes and controls were similar for age and BMI. Liver fat content was significantly higher in patients with Type 2 diabetes than in patients with Type 1 diabetes and controls. In the control group, nine people (13.4%) had steatosis compared with six (4.7%) patients with Type 1 diabetes (P = 0.04). Among patients with Type 2 diabetes group, 166 (62.8%) had steatosis. In multivariate analysis that included patients with Type 1 diabetes and participants without diabetes, steatosis was associated only with BMI, whereas age, sex, statin therapy and Type 1 diabetes were not. In patients with Type 1 diabetes, there was no correlation between liver fat content and estimated glomerular filtration rate or carotid intima media thickness. Conclusions Our data showed that Type 1 diabetes was not associated with an increased prevalence of steatosis. Moreover, our study provided no specific arguments concerning a link between liver fat content and diabetic complications in patients with Type 1 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Conditional net survival in recurrence-free patients (CNS-RF) provides relevant clinical information and has never been assessed yet in a non-selected colon cancer population. We aimed to estimate conditional 5-year net survival in recurrence-free patients with colon cancer in the population-based Digestive Cancer Registry of Burgundy (France)., Methods: CNS-RF was estimated in the 3736 patients resected for cure for primary colon cancer between 1976 and 2006, using a flexible parametric model of net survival for every additional year survived at diagnosis and from 1 to 5 years thereafter., Results: The net probability of surviving 5 more years increased from 72% at diagnosis to 92% for recurrence-free patients who survived 5 years after diagnosis. CNS-RF was over 90% 3 years after diagnosis in patients aged 75 and below. CNS-RF was over 95% in patients diagnosed after 2000 who were recurrence-free 3, 4 or 5 years after diagnosis. CNS-RF was similar between patients with stage I and II disease from 2 years after diagnosis and patients with stage III disease from 5 years after diagnosis. The initial differences in net survival related to gross features, clinical presentation, number of harvested nodes in stage II, and number of involved nodes in stage III disappeared after 2 years., Conclusions: CNS-RF is a relevant measure of prognosis in patients who have already achieved a period of remission. Providing an updated estimation of prognosis in the years following diagnosis may improve the survivors' quality of life and access to credit or insurance., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Incidence, mortality, survival and prevalence are key indicators to assess public health policies and estimate the needs of the population for cancer management. The aim of this article is to provide the more current estimates of these indicators, in line with the fifteenth operational objective of the 2014-2019 Cancer Plan "Collect data/Support Public Health"., Methods: Incidence and survival data came from cancer registries. Mortality data came from the French epidemiology center on medical causes of death. Prevalence was estimated by using incidence and survival estimates., Results: In metropolitan France in 2017, the estimated number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths was respectively 399,500 and 150,000. The most frequent cancers (breast, prostate) had highest net survivals: 78 and 84% at 10 years. Several cancers (including lung, liver and pancreatic cancers) had worse prognosis (5-year survival≤33%). In 2017, 1,396,000 men and 1,359,000 women had cancer in the previous 15 years, representing respectively 5.4% and 4.8% of the population aged 15 and over., Discussion: Despite the decrease of cancer mortality, the prognosis of some cancers remains poor and the cancer prevalence is high. These results highlight the need for intensifying the efforts already made in cancer prevention, diagnosis, and treatment and justify the interest in the post-cancer period., (Copyright © 2019 Société Française du Cancer. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.)

Background: In cancer care, the cure proportion (P) and time-to-cure (TTC) are important indicators for practitioners, patients, and healthcare policy makers. The recent definition of TTC as the time at which the probability of belonging to the cured group reaches 95% was used for the first time., Methods: The data stem from the common database of French cancer registries including 335,358 solid tumours diagnosed between 1995 and 2009 at 27 sites. P and TTC were estimated through a flexible parametric net survival cure model for each cancer site, sex, and age at diagnosis with acceptable assumption of cure (excess mortality rate ≤0.05)., Results: TTC was ≤5 years and P was >80% for skin melanoma and thyroid and testis cancers. It was 0 for testis cancer in men <55 and for thyroid cancer in men <45 and women <65. TTC was between 5 and 10 years for all digestive cancers except small intestine and all gynaecologic cancers except breast. It was ≥10 years in prostate, breast, and urinary tract. The range of P according to age and sex was 37-79% for urinary tract 72-88% for prostate and breast, 4-16% for pancreatic and 47-62% for colorectal cancer., Conclusion: Time-to-cure was estimated for the first time from a large national database and individual probabilities of cure. It was 0 in the younger patients with testis or thyroid cancer and <12 years in most cancer sites. These results should help improve access to credit and insurance for patients still alive past the estimated TTCs., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: It is of interest to both the clinicians and patients to estimate the probability of death owing to cancer in the presence of other causes as time elapses since diagnosis. The objective of this study was to depict for patients diagnosed with colon cancer between 1990 and 2010 in France, the probability of surviving up to 10 years after diagnosis and to disentangle the probability of death owing to cancer from that of death owing to other causes., Patients and Methods: Individuals with cancer were described, up to 10 years after diagnosis, as belonging to one of three categories: those who died owing to a cause related to cancer, those who died owing to another cause and those who survived. Net survival, crude probabilities of death related to colon cancer, death related to another cause and survival were estimated by modeling excess mortality hazard., Results: In women of all ages, 5 and 10-year net survival improved over calendar time. The 10-year probability of survival decreased when age increased in both sexes. It was higher in women than in men, and this difference increased with age. Crude probabilities of death related to colon cancer decreased between 1990 and 2010 for men and women, although this was not observed in the eldest men., Conclusion: Crude probability of death related to colon cancer is an important indicator for patients and health policy makers. Results of cancer screening should be faced to trends in probability of death related to colorectal cancer.

Staging is essential for scientific exchanges on colorectal cancer. Lack of a consensual definition for synchronous and metachronous metastases for colorectal cancer may introduce artifactual differences between epidemiological studies according to stage. We investigated how variations in the cutoff for the definition of synchronous metastases influenced the stage-specific distribution and incidence and the survival of stage IV patients. Between 2007 and 2013, a total of 4636 cases of colorectal adenocarcinoma were registered in the cancer registry of Burgundy. Age-standardized incidence by stage was estimated for each cutoff from 0 to 12 months, differentiating between synchronous and metachronous metastases. Net survival was calculated from the date of the diagnosis of metastasis. The incidence of stage IV colorectal cancer increased from 6.0/100 000 when considering metastases diagnosed within the first month to 7.1/100 000 when including metastases diagnosed until 12 months after the diagnosis of colorectal cancer. When the cutoff increased from 1 to 12 months, the relative variation in the proportion of cancers was +21% for stage IV, -12% for stage III, and -5% for stage II. Similarly, the 1-year net survival for metachronous group was over 10% higher than that for the synchronous group when the cutoff was over 5 months. An objective definition of the relevant cutoff to distinguish between synchronous and metachronous metastases is required for scientific epidemiologic exchanges. Survival in the metachronous group was significantly better than survival in the synchronous group when the cutoff between synchronous and metachronous was over 4 months after the primary diagnosis.

Objective: Population-based studies on colorectal malignant polyps (MPs) are scarce. The aim of this study was to describe time trends in the incidence of colorectal MPs before and after the introduction of a colorectal mass-screening programmein 2003 and to assess outcomes (survival and recurrence) after endoscopic or surgical resection in patients with MPs., Design: We included 411 patients with MPs diagnosed between 1982 and 2011 in a well-defined population. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated. Univariate and multivariate 5-year recurrence and net survival analyses were performed according to gross morphology., Results: Age-standardised incidence of MPs in patients aged 50-74 years doubled from 5.4 in 1982-2002 to 10.9 per 100 000 in 2003-2011. Pedunculated MPs were more frequently resected endoscopically (38.2%) than were sessile MPs (19.1%; p <0.001). For patients with pedunculated MPs and a pathological margin ≥1 mm, the 5 -year cumulative recurrence rate did not differ significantly between surgical and endoscopic resection (8.2% and 2.4%, respectively). For patients with sessile MPs, it was 3.0% after first-line or second-line surgical resection, 8.6% after endoscopic resection and 17.9% after transanal resection (p=0.016). The recurrence rate decreased dramatically for patients with sessile MPs from 11.3% (1982-2002) to 1.2% (2003-2009) (p=0.010) and remained stable for pedunculated MPs at 4.6% and 6.7%, respectively. Five-year net survival was 81.0% when pathological margins were <1 mm and 95.6% when ≥1 mm (p=0.024)., Conclusion: Outcomes following polypectomy in patients with a pathological margin ≥1 mm are similar to those following surgery in the general population. Endoscopic resection needs to be completed by surgery if pathological margins are less than 1 mm., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2019. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

People alive many years after breast (BC) or colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnoses are increasing. This paper aimed to estimate the indicators of cancer cure and complete prevalence for Italian patients with BC and CRC by stage and age. A total of 31 Italian Cancer Registries (47% of the population) data until 2017 were included. Mixture cure models allowed estimation of net survival (NS); cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC, 5-year conditional NS >95%); cure prevalence (who will not die of cancer); and already cured (prevalent patients living longer than TTC). 2.6% of all Italian women (806,410) were alive in 2018 after BC and 88% will not die of BC. For those diagnosed in 2010, CF was 73%, 99% when diagnosed at stage I, 81% at stage II, and 36% at stages III-IV. For all stages combined, TTC was >10 years under 45 and over 65 years and for women with advanced stages, but ≤1 year for all BC patients at stage I. The proportion of already cured prevalent BC women was 75% (94% at stage I). Prevalent CRC cases were 422,407 (0.7% of the Italian population), 90% will not die of CRC. For CRC patients, CF was 56%, 92% at stage I, 71% at stage II, and 35% at stages III-IV. TTC was ≤10 years for all age groups and stages. Already cured were 59% of all prevalent CRC patients (93% at stage I). Cancer cure indicators by stage may contribute to appropriate follow-up in the years after diagnosis, thus avoiding patients' discrimination., (© 2024 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Background: The optimal treatment for oesophageal cancer is a matter of debate. The aim of this study was to describe patterns of care and survival in a well-defined population for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (AC) of the oesophagus., Design: Data were provided by the Digestive Cancer Registry of Burgundy (France). Recurrence, excess mortality and net survival were calculated., Results: Among non-metastatic patients, the proportion of patients resected for cure decreased between 2004 and 2013 from 16% to 9% for SCC and 48% to 22% for AC. The administration of chemoradiation increased from 45 to 53% for SCC and 21 to 30% for AC. A complete clinical response to chemoradiation was reported in 40% of the patients. Five-year net survival did not vary according to histology. It was 55% in the selected group of patients resected for cure, 44% in patients treated with chemoradiation with a complete clinical response. In multivariate analysis, treatment modality only was associated with survival. In metastatic patients, 3-year net survival was 14% for those treated with chemoradiation., Conclusion: Chemoradiation has become the most frequently administered treatment. Cancelling or postponing surgery after chemoradiation with complete response should be assessed by a randomized clinical trial., (Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: Cure models have been adapted to net survival context to provide important indicators from population-based cancer data, such as the cure fraction and the time-to-cure. However existing methods for computing time-to-cure suffer from some limitations., Methods: Cure models in net survival framework were briefly overviewed and a new definition of time-to-cure was introduced as the time TTC at which P(t), the estimated covariate-specific probability of being cured at a given time t after diagnosis, reaches 0.95. We applied flexible parametric cure models to data of four cancer sites provided by the French network of cancer registries (FRANCIM). Then estimates of the time-to-cure by TTC and by two existing methods were derived and compared. Cure fractions and probabilities P(t) were also computed., Results: Depending on the age group, TTC ranged from to 8 to 10 years for colorectal and pancreatic cancer and was nearly 12 years for breast cancer. In thyroid cancer patients under 55 years at diagnosis, TTC was strikingly 0: the probability of being cured was >0.95 just after diagnosis. This is an interesting result regarding the health insurance premiums of these patients. The estimated values of time-to-cure from the three approaches were close for colorectal cancer only., Conclusions: We propose a new approach, based on estimated covariate-specific probability of being cured, to estimate time-to-cure. Compared to two existing methods, the new approach seems to be more intuitive and natural and less sensitive to the survival time distribution., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Pancreatic cancer is one of the most lethal. Most countries have exhibited a stable or decreasing incidence over time. The aim of this study was to provide updated French temporal trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality over the past three decades., Methods: Incidence was estimated using the French National Network of Cancer Registries (FRANCIM) and mortality using the French Mortality Statistics Office. World age-standardized incidence and mortality were modelled by age-period-cohort models. The net cumulative risk of developing pancreatic cancer by birth cohort was calculated, as were annual percentage changes (APCs) in incidence and mortality., Results: Between 1982 and 2012, age-standardized incidence increased from 4.8 in 1980 to 9.6 per 100 000 in men and from 2.3 to 6.8 in women. The mean APC was 2.3% (2.1-2.6) and 3.6% (3.3-3.9), respectively. The cumulative risk of developing pancreatic cancer before age 75 rose from 0.62% for males born around 1920 to 1.17% for those born around 1950. It was respectively 0.31% and 0.86% for women. Mortality did not vary in men (8.1 per 100 000). It slightly increased in women from 4.0 in 1982 to 5.4 in 2012., Conclusion: Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality exhibited diverging trends. Incidence increased over the last 30 years in France whereas mortality did not vary in men and moderately increased in women. Incidence remained lower than mortality up to 2002. One cannot exclude the possibility that a similar trend may appear in other countries. Etiological studies are required to further explain this increase., (© The Author 2017; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association)

Background: Postoperative mortality after resection of colorectal cancer is an important issue. The aim of this study was to assess early postoperative mortality in a well-defined French population., Methods: Data on 30- and 90-day postoperative mortality after resection for colorectal cancer were extracted from the digestive cancer registry of Burgundy. Time trends of postoperative mortality between 1989 and 2013 were described for the large population. Case-control studies (death within 30 or 90 days = cases, alive at 90 days = controls) focused on the association between postoperative mortality and surgical approach, obesity and other comorbidities over the last [2010-2013] period, using conditional logistic regressions., Results: Among the 11,448 concerned patients, 30- and 90-day postoperative mortalities were 4.9 and 7.2%. Thirty-day operative mortality decreased from 7.2% (1989-1993) to 4.4% (2010-2013; p < 0.001) for colon cancer and from 4.2 to 3.3% for rectal cancer (NS). Diagnosis before 1997, male gender, advanced age, emergency surgery and palliative resection were associated with a significantly higher 30- and 90-day mortality rate. The univariate risk of mortality was two to three times higher for conventional open laparotomy and conversion than for laparoscopy-assisted surgery. The surgical approach was no longer significant in multivariate analysis. Emergency surgery and comorbidities were associated with higher 30- and 90-day postoperative mortality, whereas obesity was not specific., Conclusion: Postoperative mortality after colorectal resection decreased over time. Surgical approach had no influence on early mortality. Improvement in the management of the elderly and patients with comorbidities is a challenge to reduce postoperative mortality in the future.