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The article deals with a study which calculated age- and gender-specific body mass indexes (BMI) in terms of lowest mortality in Japanese population. A comparison of the computed BMI with the BMI for whites as determined by similar studies and to the official BMI guidelines is offered. The study, conducted in 1993, with a follow-up in 2003, involved men and women aged 40-79 years old who underwent health check-ups in Ibaraki prefecture. A discussion on the study findings is given.

Background: Tobacco smoking is a major risk factor for many diseases. We sought to quantify the burden of tobacco-smoking-related deaths in Asia, in parts of which men's smoking prevalence is among the world's highest.Methods and Findings: We performed pooled analyses of data from 1,049,929 participants in 21 cohorts in Asia to quantify the risks of total and cause-specific mortality associated with tobacco smoking using adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. We then estimated smoking-related deaths among adults aged ≥45 y in 2004 in Bangladesh, India, mainland China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan-accounting for ∼71% of Asia's total population. An approximately 1.44-fold (95% CI = 1.37-1.51) and 1.48-fold (1.38-1.58) elevated risk of death from any cause was found in male and female ever-smokers, respectively. In 2004, active tobacco smoking accounted for approximately 15.8% (95% CI = 14.3%-17.2%) and 3.3% (2.6%-4.0%) of deaths, respectively, in men and women aged ≥45 y in the seven countries/regions combined, with a total number of estimated deaths of ∼1,575,500 (95% CI = 1,398,000-1,744,700). Among men, approximately 11.4%, 30.5%, and 19.8% of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and respiratory diseases, respectively, were attributable to tobacco smoking. Corresponding proportions for East Asian women were 3.7%, 4.6%, and 1.7%, respectively. The strongest association with tobacco smoking was found for lung cancer: a 3- to 4-fold elevated risk, accounting for 60.5% and 16.7% of lung cancer deaths, respectively, in Asian men and East Asian women aged ≥45 y.Conclusions: Tobacco smoking is associated with a substantially elevated risk of mortality, accounting for approximately 2 million deaths in adults aged ≥45 y throughout Asia in 2004. It is likely that smoking-related deaths in Asia will continue to rise over the next few decades if no effective smoking control programs are implemented. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assessed case fatality rates (CFRs) in cases aged ≥70 years in 10 Japanese prefectures (14.8 million residents) diagnosed between January 2022 and March 2023, when the Omicron variant was dominant in Japan. We selected incident reports on 283,052 study subjects from participating Public Health Centers adhering to the Infectious Diseases Control Law. Cases were passively followed up until the end of their isolation, date of death or 28 days after the COVID-19 diagnosis, whichever occurred first. We calculated age-standardized CFRs with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using the Japanese population aged 70-79, 80-89 and ≥90 in 2022 divided into 16 subgroups according to the period of COVID-19 diagnosis. The total overall CFR was 1.59% (95% CI 1.55-1.64); it ranged between 0.67% (95% CI 0.38-0.96, May 23-June 19) and 2.58% (95% CI 2.36-2.80, January 31-February 27). We observed three peaks of age-standardized CFRs paralleling the 6 th , 7 th and 8 th endemic COVID-19 waves driven by Omicron in Japan (2.2% January 31-February 27, 1.0% July 18-August 14 and 1.6% December 26-January 22, 2023, respectively). Population-based CFRs for Omicron variant COVID-19 in Japanese aged ≥70 years remained <3% throughout the period January 2022-March 2023, including during three large endemic waves in this country.

Introduction: Global health hazards caused by air pollution, such as chronic kidney disease (CKD), have been gaining attention; however, air pollution-associated CKD has not been explored in Japan., Methods: We examined 77,770 men and women with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 in the Ibaraki Prefecture who participated in annual community-based health checkups from 1993 at 40-75 years old and were followed up through December 2020. The outcome was newly developed kidney dysfunction with eGFR of <60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 during follow-up. To assess air pollution, a PM 2.5 exposure model was employed to estimate yearly means at 1 × 1-km resolution, converted into means at the municipal level. Hazard modeling was employed to examine PM 2.5 concentrations in residential areas as a risk factor for outcomes., Results: Participants were distributed across 23 municipalities in the Ibaraki Prefecture, with PM 2.5 concentrations between 16.2 and 33.4 μg/m 3 (mean, 22.7 μg/m 3 ) in 1987-1995 as the exposure period. There were 942 newly developed kidney dysfunctions during follow-up. Based on 1987-1995 PM 2.5 concentrations as the baseline exposure, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio per 10-μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 for newly developed kidney dysfunction was 1.02 (95%CI, 0.80-1.24) in men and 1.19 (95%CI, 0.95-1.44) in women., Conclusions: Elevated PM 2.5 did not represent a significant risk factor for incident CKD in a prefecture in Japan., Competing Interests: None, (Copyright © Japan Medical Association.)

Competing Interests: None

Aim: Lifetime risk (LTR) indicates the absolute risk of disease during the remainder of an individual's lifetime. We aimed to assess the LTRs for coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality associated with blood pressure (BP) and total cholesterol levels in an Asian population using a meta-analysis of individual participant data because no previous studies have assessed this risk., Methods: We analyzed data from 105,432 Japanese participants in 13 cohorts. Apart from grade 1 and 2-3 hypertension groups, we defined "normal BP" as systolic/diastolic BP ＜130/＜80 mmHg and "high BP" as 130-139/80-89 mmHg. The sex-specific LTR was estimated while considering the competing risk of death., Results: During the mean follow-up period of 15 years (1,553,735 person-years), 889 CHD deaths were recorded. The 10-year risk of CHD mortality at index age 35 years was ≤ 0.11%, but the corresponding LTR was ≥ 1.84%. The LTR of CHD at index age 35 years steeply increased with an increase in BP of participants with high total cholesterol levels [≥ 5.7 mmol/L (220 mg/dL)]. This risk was 7.73%/5.77% (95% confidence interval: 3.53%-10.28%/3.83%-7.25%) in men/women with grade 2-3 hypertension and high total cholesterol levels. In normal and high BP groups, the absolute differences in LTRs between the low and high total cholesterol groups were ≤ 0.25% in men and ≤ 0.40% in women., Conclusions: High total cholesterol levels contributed to an elevated LTR of CHD mortality in hypertensive individuals. These findings could help guide high-risk young individuals toward initiating lifestyle changes or treatments.

Lifetime risk (LTR) provides an absolute risk assessment during the remainder of one’s life. Few studies have focused on the LTRs of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD), categorized by fine blood pressure in Asian populations. We aimed to assess it using a large database of a meta-analysis with the individual participant data. The present metaanalysis included 107 737 Japanese (42.4% men; mean age, 55.1 years) from 13 cohorts. During the mean follow-up of 15.2±5.3 years (1 559 136 person-years), 1922 died from stroke and 913 from CHD. We estimated risks after adjusting for competing risk of death other than the outcome of interest. The 10-year risk of stroke and CHD deaths at index age of 35 years was ≤1.9% and ≤0.3%, respectively. The LTRs of stroke death at the index age of 35 years (men/women) were 6.1%/4.8% for optimal, 5.7%/6.3% for normal, and 6.6%/6.0% for high-normal blood pressure groups, and 9.1%/7.9% for grade 1, 14.5%/10.3% for grade 2, and 14.6%/14.3% for grade 3 hypertension groups. The LTRs of CHD death similarly elevated with an increase in blood pressure but were lower (≤7.2%) than those of stroke death. In conclusion, blood pressure was clearly associated with an elevated LTR of stroke or CHD death, although the LTR of CHD death was one-half of that of stroke death in an Asian population. These results would help young people with hypertension to adopt a healthy lifestyle or start antihypertensive therapy early., (© 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Outbreaks of infectious diseases can occur after natural disasters as vital services are disrupted and populations move into evacuation centres. National notifiable disease surveillance may be inadequate in these situations because of resource-consuming disease confirmation or system interruptions. Although syndromic surveillance has been used as an alternative in post-disaster situations, no systematic evaluations of it have been published. We evaluated the ad hoc paper-based syndromic surveillance system implemented in evacuation centres in Ibaraki prefecture after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. We assessed the simplicity, acceptability, data quality, timeliness and portability of this system and reviewed its usefulness. We concluded that the system was simple, acceptable, portable and useful. The documentation and monitoring of disease events and trends were useful for developing interventions in evacuation centres and have since been used to improve post-disaster infectious disease and surveillance knowledge in Japan. We believe timeliness was a challenge due to the chain of data transmission and communication passing through an intermediary. Future implementations of this system could consider a more direct chain of data transmission and communication from collectors to analysers. Too few key informant interviewees and the inability to obtain original paper-based data from evacuation centres limited our findings; we conducted this evaluation four years after the response occurred. Future evaluations should be completed closer to when operations cease. The usefulness of the system suggests adopting it in future disasters. A simple, plain-language manual should be developed to improve future employment.

Purpose: To examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a general Japanese population., Methods: A total of 105 611 participants aged 40-79 years who completed health checkups in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, and were free of CKD in 1993 were followed-up through 2006. Stage ≥3 CKD was defined by an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) reported during at least 2 successive annual surveys or as treatment for kidney disease. Hazard ratios (HRs) for the development of stage ≥3 CKD relative to the BMI categories were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards regression model, which was adjusted for possible confounders and mediators., Results: During a mean follow-up of 5 years, 19 384 participants (18.4%) developed stage ≥3 CKD. Compared to a BMI of 21.0-22.9 kg/m(2), elevated multivariable-adjusted HRs were observed among men with a BMI ≥23.0 kg/m(2) and women with a BMI ≥27.0 kg/m(2). Significant dose-response relationships between BMI and the incidence of stage ≥3 CKD were observed in both sexes (P for trend <0.001)., Conclusions: Obesity was associated with the risk of developing stage ≥3 CKD among men and women.

Objectives: To make recommendations on the revision of the Pandemic Influenza National Action Plan and Guidelines, we reviewed the data from the flu call center and medical institutions in Kobe city and compared them with data from Ibaraki prefecture., Methods: The overall duration of study from May 2009 to December 2009 was divided into 4 periods; we analyzed details of the calls received by the call center and examined the correlation between them and cases who were seen at medical institutions in Kobe. We used a mathematical model to approximate the cumulative growth curve of the number of calls received by the call center and the number of cases attending fever clinics in Kobe. We compared the above data with data from Ibaraki because the total number of confirmed cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza was similar: Kobe identified the first confirmed case of the influenza in Japan, while Ibaraki reported their first case 1 month later., Results: Following the report of the initial domestic case, the Kobe call center received 30,067 calls in a month. A "delayed sigmoid curve" fitted well for both the rise in the number of calls at the call center and of cases attending the fever clinics. "Feeling sick despite no overseas travel history" was the most common reason for call. More than 2,000 calls/day were received, and the responses to such calls were instructions to consult a general medical institution (40%), instructions to refer to a fever clinic (8%), guidance on home care or how to manage underlying disorders, and listening to callers' anxieties and complaints. The numbers of calls decreased towards the end ofJuly; the number of calls increased again when outbreaks were reported in schools and a death due to influenza was confirmed. After November, on an average, 500 calls/day were received; most were complaints regarding vaccination. Unlike Kobe, Ibaraki did not experience a surge in the number of calls to the call center or consultations to fever clinics within a short period of time., Conclusion: The outbreak of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza showed different call patterns and medical consultations in different regions. The time of disease outbreak and the availability of medical resources differ among regions; hence, each municipality should act practically and flexibly according to the situation in their locality.

Objective: To develop diabetes risk scores and to produce a diabetes risk prediction sheet that can be used throughout Japan as a tool for health guidance., Research Design and Methods: A total of 16,289 men and 37,099 women aged 40-69 years who had underwent health check-ups in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan, in 1993, were followed through 2003 (mean follow-up duration; 5.0 yr in men, 5.5 yr in women). Relative risk (RR) of newly developed diabetes (determined by fasting blood glucose > / = 126 mg/dL, resting blood glucose > / = 200 mg/dL, or treatment of diabetes) was calculated according to blood glucose, triglycerides (log-transformed), systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), treatment for hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking habits, alcohol consumption, and fasting status using Cox's proportional hazards model. Diabetes risk scores were calculated by multiplying RRs of individual variables. In addition, we attempted to develop a diabetes risk prediction sheets for specific health guidance of the larger general Japanese population., Results: During the follow-up, there were 3,654 new cases of diabetes in 1,667 men and 1,987 women. In both men and women, the significant factors included in the risk scores were BMI, blood glucose, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, triglycerides and smoking habits. Based on the computed risk scores, a 12-page diabetes risk prediction sheet was produced. The sheet includes a scoring protocol for diabetes risk scores consisting of a representative value and RR for each risk factor as well as advice for achieving a healthy lifestyle., Conclusion: The diabetes risk prediction sheet developed in this study may be an effective tool to guide individuals at high risk for lifestyle-related disease such as diabetes.

Objective: We aimed to predict mortality rate from the findings of annual health checkups for men and women., Method: The subjects were 31,053 men and 61,224 women who were living in Ibaraki prefecture (Japan), aged 40 to 79 years, without history of any stroke and coronary heart disease, and who participated in annual health checkups in 1993. They were followed until the end of 2001, with a systemic review of resident registration and death certificates. The Cox's proportional hazards model with step-down procedure was used to estimate predictive model., Results: During the 8.0 years follow-up, there were 5260 deaths (710 from stroke, 389 from coronary heart disease and 2,322 from cancer). The predictive factors for all causes were advanced age, high systolic blood pressure, medication for hypertension, low serum HDL cholesterol, high or low serum creatinine, high AST or ALT, diabetes, low body mass index, current smoking, heavy drinking, and urinary protein among men. The predictive factors for cardiovascular disease were advanced age, high systolic blood pressure, medication for hypertension, low or high serum total cholesterol, low serum HDL cholesterol, high serum creatinine, diabetes, low body mass index, current smoker, and urinary protein, and those for cancer were advanced age, medication for hypertension, low serum HDL cholesterol, low serum creatinine, high AST or ALT, diabetes, low body mass index, current smoking, heavy drinking and urinary protein. Furthermore, those for stroke were advanced age, high systolic blood pressure, medication for hypertension, low serum HDL cholesterol, high serum creatinine, high AST or ALT, low body mass index, current smoking, while for coronary heart disease they were advanced age, high systolic blood pressure, high serum total cholesterol, low serum HDL cholesterol, diabetes, current smoking, and urinary protein among men. For women, similar predictive factors were obtained, although some of them did not reach statistical significance., Conclusion: We could construct predictive models for 5-year mortality rate from results of annual health checkups. These findings should prove useful for computerized health education on the prevention of stroke, coronary heart disease, and cancer.

Objective: A tool was developed for assessment of health status in communities to help formulate health policy of local governments and allow estimates of magnitude of changes in mortality with modification of selected risk variables., Materials and Methods: A total of 25,201 men and 51,776 women aged 40-69 years who underwent health checkups in Ibaraki-ken, Japan, in 1993 were followed through 2002. Risk ratios for all cause, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, all cancer, and lung cancer deaths were calculated according to smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and diabetes using a Cox proportional hazards model. Regression coefficients for body mass index, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and plasma glucose were also calculated by the model with quadratic terms. On the basis of the results, we developed a tool using Microsoft EXCEL, allowing estimation of the magnitude of changes in death rates according to variation in mean and standard deviation values for risk factors by impact fraction., Results: The developed tool facilitates estimation of magnitude of changes in death rates with alteration in exposure rates and means/standard deviations of risk variables with intervention. The best magnitude of decline for all cause mortality with a 50% reduction of exposure to smoking was 10% in men. The magnitudes of decline in cardiovascular disease mortality with a 50% reduction in hypertension were 12% in men and 11% in women. Furthermore, the magnitude of decline in cardiovascular disease mortality if a 10% lowering of mean systolic blood pressure were achieved would be 22% in men and 18% in women., Conclusions: Our developed tool may be useful to assess health status in communities with cooperation between municipal and prefectural governments.