Search

Political order following rebel victory in civil wars has seen remarkable variation. While some rebellions transform their victories into durable regimes, others do not. This article develops a typological framework to assess the ability, and inability, of victorious rebellions to capture the state after overthrowing incumbents, with a focus on Africa. We argue that these outcomes - state capture, failed state capture, or mixed - depend on two key dimensions of political and military centralization before victory: (1) the distribution of power between rebel organizations participating in the civil war and (2) the communal structure within them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digitalization can help suppliers cut ties with their intermediaries and offer products directly to consumers. Such a digital disintermediation strategy likely affects both digital and non-digital incumbents in ways difficult to predict by current marketing theory. In our empirical investigation of digital disintermediation in the multibillion-dollar filmed home entertainment industry, we draw on consumers' viewing behaviors before and after the launch of the streaming service Disney+. The findings show that access to Disney+ substantially increased the streaming category in the short run, accelerating the demise of non-digital linear television. However, only the new digital service benefited, while streaming incumbents suffered negative outcomes, despite public claims to the contrary. In addition to foreshadowing Netflix's subsequent difficulties in defending its leadership position, these findings offer suppliers successful ways to liberate themselves from powerful intermediaries and help incumbents brace for the competitive upheavals that a digital disintermediation strategy is likely to trigger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Circular economy (CE) has emerged as a sustainable alternative to the current "take, make, waste" linear approach. Although prior studies have highlighted the salience of collaborative efforts between start‐ups and incumbents, little is known about the mechanisms behind collaboration in a CE context. This study enhances our understanding of the topic by drawing on six cases of circular start‐ups (CSUs) operating in the United Kingdom's business‐to‐business market and investigating the mechanisms by which start‐ups collaborate with incumbents. Using the Context, Intervention, Mechanism, Outcome framework, the paper's findings demonstrate that CE does not necessitate high‐risk and expensive changes and show that CSUs can collaborate with incumbents in low‐risk ways by outsourcing and developing service contracts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates data-driven business model innovation (DDBMI) for incumbent manufacturers, underscoring its importance in various strategic and managerial contexts. Employing topic modeling, the study identifies nine key topics of DDBMI. Through qualitative thematic synthesis, these topics are further refined, interpreted, and categorized into three levels: Enablers, value creators, and outcomes. This categorization aims to assess incumbent manufacturers' preparedness for DDBMI. Additionally, a knowledge framework is developed based on the identified nine key topics of DDBMI to aid incumbent manufacturers in enhancing their understanding of DDBMI, thereby facilitating the practical application and interpretation of data-driven approaches to business model innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper hopes to enhance understanding about entrenched grievance in a couple of ways: (a) Initially, the paper reviews how entrenched grievance reflects melancholic states of mind in terms of its avoidance of the pain of loss and change. But the main contribution of the paper is likely to be found in (b), that is, via detailed clinical material, the paper illustrates how earnest efforts on the part of the analyst to bring understanding may lead to cognitive entrapments such as the convictions incumbent in the “knowing” analyst. Further, that this knowing analyst may need to become aggrieved, that is, narrow, impatient and concrete towards her patient’s entrenchment, and then to recogize this plight in herself before she can genuinely hear her patient’s grievance about her from a wider view, that is as a complaint from the “lively self”, deserving recognition. The clinical detail demonstrates that such recognition softened the patient’s grievance, allowing both members of the dyad to become more collaborative and open to the pains and growth available from mourning states of mind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accountability relationship between voters and elected members of Congress (MCs) hinges on the potential for citizens to learn about legislator behaviour. In an era of declining local newspapers, local television coverage of MCs potentially fulfils this important role. However, few studies have comprehensively examined the determinants of contemporary MC coverage by local television news broadcasts. In this paper, we leverage a vast database of local television news broadcast transcripts spanning two years to identify which factors explain MC coverage. We find that MCs receive little coverage outside the general election campaign season. Media market and campaign-specific factors are associated with more exposure when coverage occurs. Finally, we find that within competitive elections, incumbents receive only a marginal advantage in coverage. These findings provide a springboard to explore further questions regarding Congress, local media, and political accountability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Members of some legislatures enjoy long political careers, whereas elsewhere turnover is rampant. This variation is consequential since high-incumbency assemblies may facilitate legislative expertise at the expense of social representation. We explore cross-national differences in re-election (incumbency) rates by identifying 'supply' conditions such as legislative resources that benefit incumbents as well as 'demand' conditions such as political corruption that affect voters' willingness to re-elect incumbents. We hypothesize that legislative perquisites help incumbents win re-election, but only if there is relatively high public confidence in politics, as reflected in low corruption levels. We tested our argument using OLS and instrumental variable regression and new global data on sixty-eight democracies (2000–18) covering 288 elections and over 55,000 legislators. We found that legislative resources help incumbents get re-elected only under relatively low levels of political corruption. In contrast, under severe corruption, such resources can depress re-election rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article shows that larger legislatures reduce the electoral power of incumbent parties in the executive. The electoral effects of legislature size have been largely overlooked by a literature that emphasizes its impact on policies. I estimate the effects of municipal council size on the performance of the local incumbent party in gubernatorial, presidential, and mayoral races in Brazil. The regression discontinuity design exploits variation from a law that set nonlinear council size caps after 2012. In a nutshell, every additional seat triggers a 5 percentage point vote loss for the candidates backed by the mayor's party. Additional evidence suggests that these losses are a consequence of a breakdown in the political brokerage relationships that often characterize developing democracies: in Brazil, mayors exchange patronage for the councilors' electoral support. Larger councils raise this transaction cost for mayors, more so when the council and mayor have unaligned electoral incentives at the state/national levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the conditions under which major infrastructural investments generate electoral returns. It addresses when and how the constraints imposed by myopic voters under democracy can be overcome. We argue that sustained policy spillovers are critical to broadening the pool of beneficiaries and yielding significant returns to the incumbent in the medium to long run. We make this case by analyzing Luz para Todos (LPT)—a large-scale rural electrification scheme implemented in Brazil by the Workers' Party (PT). Leveraging the LPT's quasi-experimental allocation, we document its positive and persistent impact on the PT's vote support several years after the program started running. We then illustrate the mechanism of policy spillovers by showing the impact of the LPT on the provision of education in targeted areas. Our findings suggest that infrastructure policies are more likely to generate electoral returns when the policy provision entails spillover effects through other policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers: Revista de Sociologia is the property of Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper provides an analytical review of the literature on the role of technology cycle time (TCT) in the catching-up process of latecomers at the firm, sectoral, and national levels. At the national level, latecomer economies follow a detour that consists of economic growth through specialization in short-TCT sectors during the catching-up phase, followed by a shift to long-TCT sectors in the post-catching-up phase. The paper then discusses the double-edged nature of TCT at the sectoral level, such that short TCT can either be a window of opportunity associated with the rapid obsolescence of existing technologies and thus low entry barriers, or another source of difficulty associated with the truncation of learning from existing technologies. Only latecomers with a certain absorptive capacity can benefit from short TCT as a window of opportunity. Finally, at the firm level, this paper discusses the issue of possible convergence in the behavior of catching-up firms towards those of mature firms in advanced economies. At all three levels, the keywords are detours and convergence. Given the barriers to entry in long-TCT sectors, latecomers pursue a strategy of detouring into short-TCT sectors. That is, instead of trying to emulate incumbents by entering long-TCT sectors, latecomers take the opposite route. Subsequently, as latecomers improve their capabilities over time, they shift their specialization from short to long TCT sectors, thereby achieving convergence in behavior and strategy at the firm, sectoral, and national levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What are the political consequences of rising household debt in the context of fiscal austerity? I argue that cuts in welfare benefits privatize social obligations as voters address ensuing financial shortfalls by borrowing money. Debt re‐commodifies individuals and shifts their electoral support from incumbents to opposition and anti‐establishment parties by provoking feelings of political neglect, economic vulnerability, and strong emotional responses. I examine this argument by leveraging spatial and temporal variation in the rollout of Universal Credit (UC), a large‐scale welfare reform in the United Kingdom. Using fine‐grained administrative data on unsecured debt, I demonstrate that fiscal austerity generated an increase in indebtedness, which lowered support for the incumbent Conservatives and strengthened support for Labour and the UK Independence Party (UKIP). I then use individual‐level survey data to explore the mechanisms that link debt and political behavior. The results suggest that rising indebtedness increases the political costs of welfare retrenchment and creates new political cleavages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do politicians' track records and campaign messaging interact and affect voters' welfare? We analyze this question theoretically and experimentally. In the theoretical model, which we implement in the experiment, politicians choose how much of an economy's resources to allocate to the citizenry—keeping the remainder for themselves—and then face reelection against a challenger. Both incumbents and challengers have private information about their own quality that determines the economy's level of resources. We vary whether candidates can send campaign messages and the level of variability in candidates' quality. We observe that both higher‐quality variability and allowing campaigning benefit citizens by allowing them to better select and hold accountable higher‐quality officials. Also, when incumbents have performed poorly or when quality variability is high, challengers' negative campaigning (criticizing the incumbent) increases and incumbents' positive campaigning (emphasizing their own strengths) decreases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advancements in digital technology necessitate a shift from traditional linear buyer-supplier value chains to a network-centric approach facilitated by digital platforms. Despite digital platforms being a dominant model for transformation, limited research has explored the enablers for incumbent pipeline firms to embrace platformization. To address this gap, this study reviews existing literature on digital transformation, identifying nine enablers for digital platformization: changing client behavior, information technology (IT) capabilities development, structural efficiencies, disruptive competitive forces, scope advantages, economic triggers, disruptive third-party technology, creation of autonomous corporate structures, and regulatory compliance. Case studies of platformization in diverse industries are analyzed using the modified total interpretive structural modeling (m-TISM) approach, resulting in a hierarchical model with five levels. This model delineates interrelationships among trigger events, external enablers, internal organizational enablers, process enablers, and outcome drivers. Furthermore, the study highlights that the creation and extraction of value from digital platforms are operationalized through e-business strategies, contributing insights to e-business literature by discussing the implications of these enablers on dimensions such as commerce, collaboration, communication, connection, and computing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do voters react to an ongoing natural threat? Do voters sanction or reward incumbents even when incumbents cannot be held accountable because an unforeseeable natural disaster is unfolding? We address this question by investigating voters' reactions to the early spread of COVID-19 in the 2020 French municipal elections. Using a novel, fine-grained measure of the circulation of the virus based on excess-mortality data, we find that support for incumbents increased in areas that were particularly hard hit by the virus. Incumbents from both left and right gained votes in areas more strongly affected by COVID-19. We provide suggestive evidence for two mechanisms that can explain our findings: an emotional channel related to feelings of fear and anxiety, and a prospective-voting channel, related to the ability of incumbents to act more swiftly against the diffusion of the virus than challengers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under what conditions do incumbents support, tolerate, or try to rein in armed groups within their borders? The paper argues that incumbents strategize toward armed groups in ways that help them manage the ruling coalition and remain in power. I find that incumbents support armed groups in provinces where provincial politicians have defected from the ruling coalition to opposition parties, recruiting armed groups to deliver the province in national elections with fraud and violence and punish elite defectors. Where incumbents are not fighting to keep provinces in the ruling coalition, I show that they tolerate non-dissident groups that enjoy social contracts with local communities, and try to contain their dissident counterparts. Incumbents are likely to repress predatory armed groups, dissident and non-dissident alike. Doing so helps boost elite and mass support for incumbents and project central government power into the province. The argument was inductively built with comparative case studies from Nigeria and then evaluated in Kenya. The findings contribute to an important research agenda on government-armed group relationships and carry implications for security sector aid and reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Democratic backsliding by incumbents is one of the most prevalent forms of backsliding in recent global trends of democratic erosion. Understanding the attitude of voters toward backsliding incumbents is crucial because popular support is the basis of legitimacy for these incumbents. This article studies voter attitudes in the Philippines, where democracy was subverted by the incumbent president, Rodrigo Duterte, who served from 2016 to 2022. Specifically, we examine the validity of the claim that Filipino voters are acquiring a "taste for illiberal rule" made by some scholars. First, we analyzed the survey data regarding the support for various types of political systems, where part of the data comes from our originally commissioned survey at the Social Weather Stations. Second, we explored Pulse Asia's longitudinal survey data on martial-rule support. Our investigation of these survey data did not find substantive support for the "taste for illiberal rule" proposition. Further, we argue that Filipino voters are contingent supporters of illiberal politics while supporting the procedural principles of democracy at the baseline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Nations climate summits—Conferences of the Parties, or COPs—have emerged as important sites to confront fossil fuel incumbents. While new research indicates that least developed countries (LDCs) are challenging incumbents at COPs by calling upon them to phase out fossil fuel, there is limited research on how the coalition of LDCs is strategizing to confront incumbents and their capacity to do so. I address this gap by drawing on 24 interviews with LDCs' negotiators and observers. Informed by the strategic power perspective and the neo-Gramscian account of power, it identifies three central dynamics in how LDCs contest fossil fuel incumbents. First, negotiators undertake "soft" strategies at negotiations to call upon incumbents to reduce fossil fuel consumption, while observers pursue "hard" tactics at side events to press incumbents to phase out production. Second, the coalition is divided between those countries focused on reducing fossil fuel consumption versus those emphasizing the need for a production phase-out. This split creates disagreement, contestation, and division in the coalition. Finally, the coalition's capacity to confront incumbents is restrained by three obstacles: fragile strategies, varied interests and fragmentation in the coalition and the G77+ China, and interstate relations between LDCs and incumbents shaped by political economic factors and colonial legacy. The LDCs' coalition is central to advancing supply-side climate policy in international climate negotiations. Overcoming these divisions and barriers would enhance the coalition's capacity to exert pressure on incumbents, particularly major fossil fuel-producing states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technological discontinuities create new submarkets in existing industries, which may favor incumbents or provide opportunities to new entrants. Complementing prior research on the emergence of integrative submarkets that leave the industry's customer base unchanged, we introduce the notion of additive submarkets, which are characterized by enlarging the focal industry's customer base and its heterogeneity. Our empirical analysis focuses on how the emergence of an additive submarket after a competence-destroying technological discontinuity affected entry and firm survival in the historical German farm tractor industry. Using propensity score-weighted hazard models to control for the endogeneity of entry timing, we find that diversifying entrants from customer-related industries were more likely to enter and survive after the submarket emerged. We develop a conceptual framework to structure the implications for entry and survival of various types of entrants when technological discontinuities create new integrative or additive submarkets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "sailing-ship effect" is the process whereby improvements to an incumbent technology (e.g. sail) are intentionally sought as a new competing technology (steam) emerges. Despite the fact that the effect has been referred to by quite a few scholars in different technological battles, the effect itself seems to have been taken for granted rather than organically defined and investigated. In this paper, within the context of evolutionary "appreciative theorizing" à la Nelson and Winter, through in-depth study of technological battles between old and new technologies, we transform what was an unfinished concept into a structured, fully-fledged, tool of analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the impact of social learning on sales strategies for incumbent firms facing new entrants in the digital software market. Consumers rely on peer reviews to assess product quality, making it difficult to evaluate new products. The study considers two pricing strategies: perpetual and subscription. Results suggest that monopolizing the market is not always beneficial for the incumbent. The best strategy depends on the strength of social learning effects, with a subscription strategy being more effective when social learning effects are strong, and a perpetual strategy being more effective when they are weak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does austerity influence incumbent support? Existing studies struggle with conceptualizing the evolution of austerity's impact over time, estimating a causal effect, and analysing the reactions of different voters. This study theorizes that the effect of austerity on electoral preferences is not immediate, but gradual, as voters find out about the measures' consequences via the media. It leverages a survey in the field at the time of the austerity announcement in Romania in 2010, additional survey data collected immediately after this event and comprehensive daily media coverage to show that austerity measures do not have an immediate impact on incumbent support, anticipated turnout and expressing a vote preference. Instead, there is a gradual effect that is associated with increased media attention to budgetary cuts. This natural experiment allows the estimation of the immediate causal effect of austerity on electoral intentions. Difference‐in‐differences (DID) models show that the announcement triggered a massive loss of support for the incumbent among those who had voted for the party in power only a few months before. Austerity also led to the demobilization of the governing party's supporters. There is no evidence that those most directly affected by the spending cuts are more likely to punish the incumbent party. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior studies have documented incumbency advantage for electoral candidates. A largely unrelated strand of literature has shown that perceived competence of candidates, as inferred from their physical appearance, also predicts their electoral success. We draw upon the framework of statistical discrimination and the dual‐system theory of human cognition to understand the relationship between a political candidate's vote share, physical appearance, and incumbency status. Voters possess relatively richer information about incumbents compared to challengers. Perceived competence of candidates, as inferred from their physical appearance, is therefore expected to have a relatively weaker influence on voters' decisions to vote for incumbents. Data from Australian state elections support this prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A change of government or minister constitutes a stress test for the relationship between ministers and bureaucrats. The new political masters may question the loyalty of incumbent bureaucrats and seek to replace them. However, the relationship between political changes and administrative turnover is poorly understood in meritocratic systems. This article analyses how changes of either government or minister affect the turnover of permanent secretaries in Denmark and Norway (1970–2020). Whereas ministers are completely reliant on career bureaucrats in pure meritocratic systems, they are supported by political appointees in hybrid meritocratic systems. The article investigates whether the effect of political changes on administrative turnover is mediated by the presence or absence of political appointees. Changes of government increase the risk of administrative turnover in Norway (hybrid system), but there are no such effects in Denmark (pure system), suggesting that political appointees potentially undermine the permanence of career bureaucrats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing literature highlights the complexities of the relationship between voting, protest action and service delivery within Southern African democracies. We explore the relationship between these variables for South Africa by generating a new dataset from various sources. Although this relationship has been explored before, the existing evidence is mixed. The results from this study therefore bring a fresh perspective, especially at a time during which the political power of the incumbent African National Congress has been declining. We find that improvements in service delivery are not significantly associated with an increase in votes for the incumbent party, indicating that accountability is not the main motivation for South Africans' voting decisions. However, we find a statistically significant negative correlation between protest action and service delivery, providing evidence of the increasing importance of protest action as a form of political accountability in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Not all governments survive until the next scheduled election. Some are replaced during their term in office by executives with a different party composition and/or portfolio distribution. Others are able to be 'reborn' as the successor government, undergoing only minimal changes. Such variation has to date received scant attention in studies on government durability. By classifying non-electoral replacements according to the degree of ministerial turnover, this article shows that new cabinets are often similar to their predecessors. It hypothesises that the likelihood of this pattern occurring is greater: when members of the current cabinet face bargaining problems in forming a very different cabinet, as in the case of surplus (unnecessary) parties in oversized coalitions; when the policy distance between the parliamentary median party and the current opposition widens; and when the executive's economic performance discourages opposition parties from forming new coalitions with some incumbent parties. The risk of experiencing different types of replacement is estimated using data on Western European cabinets (1946–2021). Consistent with the hypotheses, the results indicate that governments are able to return to power almost untouched after their termination if they are oversized, if the opposition is far from the legislative median voter, and if inflation grows during a government's tenure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a time of declining support for democracy and intensifying rivalry between democracies and autocracies, understanding how nondemocratic nations portray U.S. elections is vital. And yet, despite the enormous attention U.S. presidential elections attract around the world, the manner in which international media makes sense of U.S. campaigns remains unclear, with only a limited number of comparative studies conducted and even fewer looking at non-Western, nondemocratic nations. Furthermore, current comparative frameworks remain biased toward Western conceptualizations of media and their role in democratic countries, with nondemocratic or transitional democracies used to support theoretical models developed elsewhere. Thus, this study offers strategic media narratives as an alternative means to understand transnational similarities and differences in election reporting emerging from four non-Western, nondemocratic nations by comparing their coverage of the 2020 and 2016 U.S. presidential campaigns. Results show substantial shifts in the nature of coverage, albeit with some similarities between campaigns. Trump remained negatively discussed in both elections, but with reporting in 2020 associating his leadership character to his policies. Whereas Clinton was negatively covered in 2016, Biden was neutrally discussed in 2020 with focus on his character and policies drawn in contrast to Trump. Both political parties were negatively covered, with Chinese, Russian, and Iranian narratives associating Republicans and Democrats as pursing confrontational relations with each nation. Most importantly, discussions of U.S. democracy were substantially more frequent and negative in 2020 compared to 2016. Taken together, the study contributes theoretically and empirically to the study of comparative election research by theorizing the role of narratives in international campaign coverage, addressing the gap in research into nondemocratic media reporting of international elections, and provides one of the few cross-time comparisons enabling insight into the drivers of how and why coverage of U.S. elections change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coordination on mass protest plays an important disciplining role in ensuring compliance with electoral rules, with elections serving as a public signal of the incumbent's popularity. But the link between the informativeness of the election and the enforceability of electoral rules hinges crucially on the veracity of the electoral process. We model how doubt about electoral integrity influences compliance with electoral rules. Our analysis explains why electoral rules in advanced democracies are less resilient, and incumbents less willing to step aside, than suggested by the standard model of electoral turnover. We clarify how incumbent behaviour responds to changes in the cost of protest, and external overtures that make stepping down more attractive. Our findings contribute to the debate on the role of equilibrium multiplicity in models of mass uprisings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the incumbent state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) on the births of new private‐owned enterprises (POEs) in China is a central concern for the government and society. In this paper, we apply agglomeration theories to distinguish the linkages between SOEs and POEs. Using China's 2008 economic census, the 2007 Input‐Output Table, and the 2005 population census, we measure the formation of new POEs at the city‐industry level, and the agglomeration forces of distance proximity to inputs, outputs, labor, and technology. More explicitly, we measure the extent to which local SOEs provide relevant inputs, consume outputs, employ similar workers, and use similar technology. Our findings indicate that overall, incumbent SOEs hinder the formation of new POEs. For manufacturing, the entry of new POEs is significantly lower in places where more upstream SOEs are concentrated. For services, the entry of new POEs is significantly lower in places where more upstream and downstream SOEs are concentrated. However, the agglomeration effects from the incumbent POEs are either insignificant or significantly positive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our knowledge about how voters decide which candidate(s) to vote for under preferential-list proportional representation (PLPR) systems remains limited. In particular, it is debated whether incumbent MPs enjoy an electoral advantage over outsiders also under PLPR. We argue that such an incumbency advantage critically depends on candidate visibility (in the media) and differs across voters with varying levels of political knowledge. Our empirical analysis combines candidate information with rich individual-level voting data collected via "mock ballots" in the 2014 Belgian PartiRep election study. We show that the vote premium linked to incumbency increases with increasing media visibility, and while high-visibility incumbents outperform incumbents among the entire electorate, low-visibility incumbents enjoy an advantage only among knowledgeable voters. The results contribute to a better understanding of candidate voting and the incumbency advantage in PLPR. They also have implications for campaign strategies and the regulation of media access. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the literature highlights the relevance of informal rules for candidate selection, empirical research has mainly focused on formal rules and procedures. This article contributes to our understanding by investigating how the informal rules employed by political parties impact on intra-party competition. Using the example of district nominations in Germany, and based on a longitudinal mixed methods design, the inductive analysis reveals five central informal rules: the Incumbency Rule, the Information Rule, the House Power Rule, Fairness Rules and Power-sharing Rules. These rules shape the expectations and behavior of those involved in candidate selection and have a significant impact on various aspects of intra-party competition. They decrease the number of aspirants, reduce intra-party conflict and emphasize the role of local party leaders in organizing and controlling intra-party competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We offer a candidate-centered amendment to incumbent-referendum models of presidential election outcomes that dominate the literature on post-WWII presidential elections. Our argument is that incumbent-challenger differences in character qualifications and issue concerns of the electorate should be included. These differentials, which recognize the advantage or disadvantage of the incumbent relative to the challenger party candidate have strong effects on election outcomes independent of the state of the economy, the number of years the incumbent party has held the White House, and presidential approval. Properly understood, in addition to the state of national affairs, presidential election outcomes are about the choice presented to the mass public. This added element means that candidates matter for election outcomes and electoral change in ways that have not been properly appreciated in existing scholarship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Chilena de Derecho is the property of Revista Chilena de Derecho and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

As cooperatives become a crucial part of our society's repository of solutions for addressing the sustainability challenges, the very emergence of cooperatives continues to puzzle scholars. In this study we address a central concern for both organizational scholars and sustainability advocates, i.e. where and under which conditions cooperatives emerge as an alternative form to corporations. Building on organizational ecology theories, we argue that the varying organizational characteristics within local incumbent forms constitute an additional layer to explain cooperatives' emergence, above and beyond the known effects of community characteristics and incumbents' aggregated density (or capacity). Our analysis of a unique data set of German energy cooperatives between 2003 and 2010 support our hypotheses. Our results show that energy cooperatives are more likely to be founded where incumbent utilities have higher average age and greater size diversity, because age-related inertia and lack of competition among incumbents of diverse size limit their adaptability towards serving the new market demand for renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers a closed-loop supply chain with a manufacturer, an incumbent retailer and an entrant retailer. The two retailers order the same products from the common manufacturer and then sell to consumers, and the incumbent retailer possesses private forecast information with respect to the uncertain demand. The incumbent retailer could strategically share its forecast information to make great profits. We find that, when the incumbent retailer shares the information with its upstream manufacturer, the entrant retailer benefits from this information sharing arrangement because of the information leakage effect. However, the incumbent retailer will be motived to share the information with the manufacturer only when the manufacturer is highly efficient in collection investment. To achieve information sharing, the research results show that, the manufacturer and the entrant retailer should pay the incumbent retailer for the demand information if the investment efficiency of the manufacturer meets certain conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the impact of government fiscal windfalls on entrepreneurship through an analysis of shocks to transfer payments in Peru. These pure transfers generate higher government spending, and we contrast the impacts on incumbent firms and entrants. Incumbent exits from the financial system are reduced, but previously troubled firms experience deteriorating performance. Increased transfers result in higher rates of firm entry into formal borrowing and superior entrant outcomes. Overall, startups outperform non-startups after heightened transfers. Plain English Summary: When local governments receive larger transfers from a national government, young firms benefit more than established incumbents. We show that local government fiscal windfalls in Peru lead to higher local government spending. Higher transfers reduce the likelihood that existing firms will stop borrowing from lenders. Higher transfers also spur greater entry into credit markets for new firms. Overall, startups outperform non-startups when transfer payments are high. Transfer payments therefore offer a powerful mechanism for governments to encourage local entrepreneurship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new Polish military branch, the Territorial Defense Force (TDF), has been described both as a defensive tool against Russian hybrid warfare and as a private paramilitary force of the incumbent Law and Justice Party. This paper examines the strategic, political, and military purposes of the Territorial Defense Force using two theoretical models. One is designed for analyzing units intended to protect against external threats, the second for units targeting internal threats. Comparing these models with the officially declared objectives of the TDF, our results indicate a stronger correlation of the new branch with the second model and reveal distinct political motivations for its creation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on two-country scenarios (entrants vs. incumbents), this paper employs the synthetic control method to quantify the macroeconomic effects of the European Union (EU) enlargement, and examines whether these effects varied before, during, and after economic crises. We find that enlargement effects are very complex, and significantly varied across economic cycles and the country groups. In particular, EU enlargement induced large and positive effects on the entrants which were merely stifled in the wake of the financial crisis and the subsequent euro crisis. In the interim, the 2004 enlargement triggered an instantaneous negative shock on the incumbents which was further exacerbated by the crises. Subsequently, the entrants recovered beyond their pre-crises gains, registering approximately 14 % higher per capita incomes by 2019, with Poland emerging as a clear winner. Meanwhile, incumbents' per capita incomes have, on average, declined by approximately 9 %. While our findings largely support the notion that the entrants are en route to catching up with their incumbent counterparts, a formal β-convergence analysis exploiting the observed and synthetic data intuitively confirms that EU integration reduces the half-life by 50 %. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Airbnb debuted in 2008, incumbent lodging firms did not fully recognize it as a legitimate competitor for several years. However, as Airbnb made inroads into the accommodation business, hotel firms and their investors started to take notice and to legitimize its disruptive role. In this paper, we investigate investors' awareness of the disruptor Airbnb as a competitor of incumbent lodging firms. Specifically, we assess the effect of awareness on incumbent hotel management and hotel property owner firms. Employing an event study methodology, our analysis finds that Airbnb performance milestones negatively affect incumbents' market value. This research contributes to our understanding of the role played by investors and financial analysts in shaping competitive markets by legitimizing an industry disruptor and by spurring competitive action among incumbent firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Should an incumbent for-profit retailer deter a "socially responsible" store from entering the market? As a differentiation strategy to avoid direct price competition with well-established retailers, some socially responsible stores (or brands) enter the market with a "pre-commitment" to donate a certain proportion of their (A) profits or (B) revenues to charities. Because these charitable donations generate a "warm-glow" effect for consumers, these socially responsible stores can use pre-committed donations to gain market access. In this paper, we present a game-theoretic model in which a socially responsible retailer enters the market to compete with an incumbent for-profit retailer. We determine and compare the incumbent retailer's deterrence strategies (i.e., deter or tolerate) across different types of socially responsible stores. Our equilibrium analysis generates the following insights. First, the incumbent retailer's deterrence strategy depends on its cost advantage over the socially responsible store, and hinges upon the socially responsible store's entry cost, pre-commitment level, and its warm-glow effect. Second, even if the incumbent retailer can profitably deter the socially responsible retailer's entry, the incumbent retailer can actually be better off by tolerating instead of deterring its entry when the socially responsible store's entry cost is low and the incumbent store's cost advantage is not significant. Third, relatively speaking, a type (B) store that donates a portion of its revenue is more vulnerable unless it can generate a much higher warm-glow effect. We extend our analysis numerically to examine the case when the pre-committed proportion is endogenously determined and obtain similar structural results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In yardstick competition, the availability of information pertaining to neighbouring jurisdictions is crucial for enabling voters to increase political accountability. Using a three-jurisdiction yardstick competition model and three measures of incumbent performance, the present study shows that politicians in isolated jurisdictions (i.e. ones that do not experience media spillover) are more likely to capture private rents. In contrast, in a jurisdiction connected to two neighbouring jurisdictions (i.e., ones with media spillovers), politicians are less likely to engage in rent extraction. An interesting finding is that the number of links (media spillovers) has a direct influence on status quo bias, namely that the more the voter is exposed to yardstick competition, the less status quo bias she exhibits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study content analyzes the news coverage of two major presidential candidates—one populist challenger, the other female incumbent—in the 2020 Taiwan election. A nation-wide survey of voters and their newspaper uses was also utilized to verify the association between partisan news reliance and candidate evaluations. Based on the concept of partisan press, the study confirms that the coverage is highly polarizing and that it includes more horse race analysis than discussion of serious issues. Sexist and misogynistic terms were used more often by party-opponent (Blue-camp) newspapers to describe the female incumbent. The male populist candidate was portrayed more often in a personal fashion than the female candidate. The voters' primary newspaper uses were found to be positively associated with their candidate evaluations and preferences. The study sheds new light on populist vis-à-vis gendered election coverage in the context of an Asian democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elections under authoritarian regimes rarely deliver democratic outcomes. Still, most observers and pollsters expected Turkey's May 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections to be different. A deepening economic crisis, a botched rescue effort after a devastating earthquake, and discontent with a ruling party in power for more than two decades seemed to fuel the rise of a united opposition. But the return to democracy did not happen, and this cannot be credited solely to an unlevel electoral playing field. Turkey offers a case study in electoral autocracy, with incumbent tactics of repression and co-optation that disarm opposition parties by drawing them into the logic of autocratic politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Descriptive representation is shaped by more than the number of seats group members win—it is also informed by how group members hold on to seats long after election day. Drawing from the literatures on women of color, women, and minorities in politics, this study argues that the relationship between incumbents and descriptive representation is different among groups that hold distinctive political positioning and power. To uncover those differences, the article introduces a new measure called descriptive maintenance, which accounts for a group's ability to retain descriptive representation in a seat across unique group members and elections. This multidimensional approach expands current conceptualizations by treating incumbency and descriptive representation as interrelated, group-level, phenomena. This framework is tested using nearly 60,000 observations of state elections data in an analysis focused on a group of state legislative incumbents that has rarely been explicitly examined, and yet outnumbers all others: white men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the 2022 general elections in Papua New Guinea, covering both electoral quality and election outcomes. Overall, the 2022 elections were very troubled. In parts of the country, serious violence and electoral fraud were major issues. In other parts of the country, polling was less fraught. However, some problems, such as the roll, were serious almost everywhere. In terms of election outcomes, one outcome – only two women won seats – was predictable. However, the election brought puzzling results too: in particular, incumbents were re-elected at the highest rate ever. And the largest party won a larger share of seats than has been the case in any election since 1982. Neither of the latter two results appear to have been a direct product of electoral fraud. Rather, the party outcome stems from a turn-of-the-millennium rule change. High incumbent re-election rates remain a genuine puzzle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on the electoral legacies of civil war violence offers a puzzle. While one strand of research argues that indiscriminate rebel violence will have no effect on the electoral success of rebel-aligned parties, another argues that such violence will harden anti-rebel political attitudes in the long term. This article reconciles these conflicting predictions by examining post-conflict political attitudes over the short and medium term. We hypothesize that the organizational weaknesses that both underpin and result from indiscriminate rebel violence during civil war will constrain the vote mobilization strategies of rebel-aligned parties in post-civil war elections, eventually leading to a reversal of fortune in the medium term. We assess our hypothesis in the empirical context of the state of West Bengal in India, whose southwestern districts, collectively known as Junglemahal, experienced a spell of Maoist insurgency from 2005–2014. Taking a mixed methods approach, combining surveys across West Bengal and within Junglemahal with ethnographic research, we show that voter assessments of pre-election violence had changed sharply between the 2016 legislative assembly and 2019 parliamentary elections with violence triggering a backlash against the rebel-aligned incumbent party in 2019, but not in 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What motivates elite factions to seek to replace an authoritarian incumbent? In this article, I provide a political economy theory of authoritarian replacement. I argue that high wealth inequality fosters authoritarian replacement, but that the effect is conditional on overall wealth being low. At low wealth, elite factions have an incentive to control the state to appropriate income. As wealth grows, elites shift their focus toward securing their wealth and thus prioritize finding credible commitments and stability within authoritarianism. I test these hypotheses using data from 1960 to 2008 and employ multistate survival analysis. A case study of Trujillo's rise in the Dominican Republic illustrates the mechanisms of the theory. The evidence supports the main theoretical expectation that replacement is more likely when the level of wealth is low but wealth inequality is high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]