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Objectives: Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) risk scores have mainly focused on identifying high-risk patients. A risk score aimed at predicting which patients will not require hospital-based intervention may reduce unnecessary hospital admissions. The aim of the current study was to develop such a risk score. Material and Methods: A retrospective, population-based study that included patients presenting to the emergency room (ER) with LGIB from 2010 to 2013. Hospital-based intervention was defined as blood transfusion, endoscopic hemostasis, arterial embolization or surgery. The study cohort was split into train (70%) and test (30%) data. Train data were used to produce a multiple logistic regression model and a risk score that was validated on the test data. Results: Overall, 581 patients presented 625 times to the ER, mean age 61 (±22), males 49%. Of train data patients, 72% did not require hospital-based intervention. Independent predictors of low-risk patients (did not require hospital-based intervention) were systolic pressure ≥100mmHg (Odds ratio [OR] 4.9), hemoglobin >12g/dL (OR 103), hemoglobin 10.5-12.0g/dL (OR 19), no antiplatelets (OR 3.7), no anticoagulants (OR 2.2), pulse ≤100 (OR 2.9), and visible bleeding in the ER (OR 3.8). When validating the score on the test data, only 2% were wrongly predicted to be low-risk, the negative predictive value was 96% and the area under curve was 0.83. Conclusions: A new risk score has been developed for LGIB that may help identify low-risk patients in the ER that can be managed in an outpatient setting, thereby lowering unnecessary hospital admissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective:Limited data exist on the changes in the epidemiology of pancreatic cancer and outcomes over the last decades in population-based cohorts. We aimed to compare the incidence of pancreatic cancer, diagnostic, treatment and survival among patients diagnosed over the period 1986–2009. Materials and methods:A retrospective, nationwide, population-based study. All patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in Iceland in two periods, 1986–1997 (P1) and 1998–2009 (P2) were identified through the Icelandic Cancer Registry and relevant clinical information obtained from medical records. Results:A total of 645 patients were identified, 296 in P1 and 349 in P2 (NS). The incidence during P1 was 6.8 per 100,000 inhabitants and 6.2 during P2 (NS). Among biopsy-proven cancers, adenocarcinoma was diagnosed in 89% of the cases in P1 and in P2 in 93% of the cases. Overall 38 (14%) in P1 underwent resection and 22 (7%) in P2 (p < .0004). Patients diagnosed in P2 had longer survival at 6 months (p = .015, log-rank test) and one year (p = .0206) after diagnosis. A total of 4/296 (1.4%) in P1 survived more than 5 years and 3/349 (0.9%) in P2 (NS). Conclusions:The incidence among patients with pancreatic cancer in Iceland did not show major changes during the last 20 years. Diagnostic approach has changed considerably demonstrating more patients that are not ‘resectable’. Survival rate at 6 months and one year has improved over the last two decades whereas the 5-year prognosis has not improved. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Gastrointestinal bleeding is a common cause for presentation in the emergency room and hospitalization. The bleeding is usually categorized to upper or lower gastrointestinal bleeding. The purpose of this review article is to provide an overview of the incidence of gastrointestinal bleeding, etiology, risk factors, role of antithrombotics, evaluation of the severity of bleeding, therapy and outcome. Emphasis will be put on gastrointestinal bleeding within the Icelandic health care system but also in broader terms.

Objectives: Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) risk scores have mainly focused on identifying high-risk patients. A risk score aimed at predicting which patients will not require hospital-based intervention may reduce unnecessary hospital admissions. The aim of the current study was to develop such a risk score., Material and Methods: A retrospective, population-based study that included patients presenting to the emergency room (ER) with LGIB from 2010 to 2013. Hospital-based intervention was defined as blood transfusion, endoscopic hemostasis, arterial embolization or surgery. The study cohort was split into train (70%) and test (30%) data. Train data were used to produce a multiple logistic regression model and a risk score that was validated on the test data., Results: Overall, 581 patients presented 625 times to the ER, mean age 61 (±22), males 49%. Of train data patients, 72% did not require hospital-based intervention. Independent predictors of low-risk patients (did not require hospital-based intervention) were systolic pressure ≥100mmHg (Odds ratio [OR] 4.9), hemoglobin >12g/dL (OR 103), hemoglobin 10.5-12.0g/dL (OR 19), no antiplatelets (OR 3.7), no anticoagulants (OR 2.2), pulse ≤100 (OR 2.9), and visible bleeding in the ER (OR 3.8). When validating the score on the test data, only 2% were wrongly predicted to be low-risk, the negative predictive value was 96% and the area under curve was 0.83., Conclusions: A new risk score has been developed for LGIB that may help identify low-risk patients in the ER that can be managed in an outpatient setting, thereby lowering unnecessary hospital admissions.