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On 30 th March 2022 all Russian participation in ICES was temporally suspended. Although the announcement of the suspension stressed the role of ICES as a “multilateral science organization”, this suspension applied not only to research activities, but also to the ICES work providing fisheries advice for the sustainable management of fish stocks and ecosystems. As a result of the suspension, the ICES AFWG provided advice only for saithe, coastal cod north, coastal cod south, and golden redfish ( Sebastes norvegicus ). Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod, haddock and beaked redfish ( Sebastes mentella ) assessments have been conducted outside of ICES in a newly constituted Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG). Although this work has been conducted independently of ICES, the methodologies agreed at ICES benchmarks and agreed HCRs (Harvest Control Rules) have been followed in providing this advice.

Background The impact of asthma diagnosis and asthma endotype on outcomes from COVID-19 infection remains unclear. Objective To describe the association between asthma diagnosis and endotype and clinical outcomes among patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection. Methods Retrospective multicenter cohort study of outpatients and inpatients presenting to six hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System New York metropolitan region between March 7 th to June 7 th , 2020, with COVID-19 infection, with and without a history of asthma. The primary outcome assessed was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and hospital length of stay. Outcomes were compared in patients with or without asthma using a multivariate Cox regression model. Outcomes stratified by blood eosinophilia count were also assessed. Results Of 10,523 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection, 4902 patients were hospitalized, and 468 had a diagnosis of asthma (4.4%). When adjusted for COVID-19 disease severity, comorbidities, and concurrent therapies, patients with asthma had a lower mortality [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.64 (0.53-0.77), p

Presentation to the International Stock Assessment Workshop, University of Cape Town, 27 November - 1 December 2017: 25pp, titled: 'International Review Panel Presentation for the 2017 International Fisheries Stock Assessment workshop'

The Working Group on Multispecies Assessment Methods (WGSAM) aims at enabling research on predator-prey interactions for developing advice on the ecosystem approach to fisheries management.This report details results related to WGSAM term of reference B: “Update of key-runs (standardized model runs updated with recent data) of multispecies and ecosystem models for different ICES regions”. Multispecies model key-runs are used in ICES advice processes, and WGSAM provides critical expert review of these key-runs to recommend appropriate use of results.Although key-run reviews have been conducted in the past, requests for reviews are increasing. Therefore, WGSAM first formalized a consistent set of review criteria to conduct key-run reviews. These are outlined in section 2 of this report and are posted online (https://iceseg.github.io/wg_WGSAM/ReviewCriteria.html). WGSAM then applied these review criteria to one key-run for the North Sea ecosystem. The review is detailed in section 3 of this report. As the review criteria were applied, WGSAM also noted any difficulties with the review process in order to further refine the review criteria and to make future key-run reviews more efficient and effective.WGSAM recommends the use of natural mortality estimates from the North Sea SMS key-run for use in single species stock assessment models of North Sea cod, haddock, herring, Norway pout, southern North Sea sandeel, northern North Sea sandeel, sprat, and whiting.

The Working Group on Multispecies Assessment Methods (WGSAM) aims to advance the operational use of knowledge on predator-prey interactions for advice on fisheries and ecosystem management. This report summarises the achievements of a 3-year cycle during which the group consolidated criteria to evaluate key-runs and more in general the skills assessment of multispecies models, released key-runs for the Baltic Sea, North Sea and Irish Sea all evaluated with those criteria, progressed in the areas of multiple models comparison, ensemble modelling and on the estimation of biological reference points in the context of multispecies interactions. The updated keyruns for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea provided the best available estimates of predation mortality for a number of key commercial stocks in these two ecoregions which have been already integrated into the stock assessments throughout benchmarks and inter-benchmarks. Analyses accumulate showing that ignoring strong trophic interactions may lead to bias in the perception of stocks status and in the calculation of reference points. Evaluations show advantages of using multi-model ensembles to capture the dynamics of the main stocks and the system overall. Results accumulated so far suggest that the benefits of ensemble modelling exist for both simple models, i.e. multispecies production models, as well as more complex ecosystem models. Various approaches are available to the practice of ensemble modelling, including a fully Bayesian ensemble framework suitable also for multi-model forecasts. The report includes also progresses with software developments to enhance accessibility of some complex routines, including ensemble modelling beyond “just a simple average approach” and computation of multispecies reference points, to a broader group of modellers and users. The group sees these developments as a great opportunity to work more towards cross-platform comparisons and further on multispecies skill assessment which will remain important themes for continuation of the work. To further progress the use of multispecies and ecosystem models, collection of ecosystem data remains highly relevant, with priority on stomach data and other information on processes affecting trophic interactions and trophodynamics of ecosystems (i.e., predator-prey overlap, temperature-dependent consumption, availability of other food).

The Panel recognised the very high quality of the research presented at the 2017 International Fisheries Stock Assessment Review Workshop. This included research on Southern African hake, sardine and rock lobster, as well as methods for conducting assessments for relatively data-poor species with a focus on linefish. The Panel thanked the workshop participants for their hard work preparing and presenting the workshop papers, for the extra analyses undertaken during the workshop and for the informative input provided during discussions.This report starts with observations from the Panel on some general issues for the species and programmes reviewed, and then focuses on addressing the questions posed by DAFF Research, a more detailed technical review and finally recommendations for further work concerning each. The recommendations are annotated by their priorities (H, M, L). Much of this report reflects responses to the questions. For ease of reading, answers to the questions that also have research components are indicated by an asterisk

WKRPChange was tasked with examining how ICES handles the estimation of target and limit reference points in the face of changing environmental conditions. In particular, the meeting participants were asked to review the robustness of the current ICES procedures and to suggest specific improvements that could be made, especially relating to changes in stock productivity arising from environmental conditions, species interactions, and density-dependent effects. Part of the work involved reviewing the basis of the ICES reference points and contrasting the ICES procedures with those in the USA and Canada, and part on providing specific guidance for future reference point estimation within ICES. One common approach to changing environmental conditions is to truncate data series. WKRPChange agreed that this may be necessary in some cases, but several studies were presented showing that the estimation of reference points becomes unreliable (both noisy and potentially biased) as the time series is reduced, and therefore recommended that modelling the specific process involved is generally a better approach than truncation. The meeting noted several examples within the current ICES management system for which reference points are allowed to vary (e.g. F in the case of NEA cod, Blim in the case of Iberian Sardine) according the prevailing conditions. WKRPChange noted that this was only required if conditions were expected to change significantly over the lifespan of the reference points, and that where it was implemented the status determination (the “traffic lights”) should be made accordingly.The key recommendation of WKRPChange is consistent with the conclusions of WKGMSE2, namely that a scoping exercise should be undertaken for each stock to identify any key drivers. Where there is good evidence for ecosystem-driven changes in stock productivity that process should be accounted for in setting reference points. The meeting highlighted that reference points have a finite lifespan, generally related to the benchmark cycle, and the estimation of the reference point should predominantly take into account processes likely to be important over that lifespan. WKRChange noted that many ICES stocks are managed by Harvest Controls which are evaluated through a MSE process. In this case there is considerable scope for including such environmentally driven processes in the Operating Model. However, many stocks are managed through the standard ICES HCR with reference points derived through the EqSim program. There is therefore a specific recommendation that the possibility to include density-dependentgrowth be incorporated into EqSim, to allow more realism to be included in the estimation of reference points where the evidence indicates that this is important within the reference point life span. The meeting also highlighted the recent work at WKRISH 6, which gave scope to “fine tune” the Ftarget to account for small changes in environmental drivers without requiring full reestimation of the reference points.

The REDUS project (2016-2020) has been a strategic project at the Institute of Marine Research (IMR) aimed at quantifying and reducing the uncertainty in data-rich and age-structured stock assessments (e.g., cod, herring, haddock, capelin). Work was organized in four topical work-packages: Fisheries-dependent (catch) surveys and assessment modeling (WP1), Fishery-independent (scientific) surveys (WP2), Evaluating and testing of long-term management strategies (WP3), and Communication of uncertainty, dissemination of project results and capacity building (WP4). The Norwegian Computing Center (NR) was contracted in as a strategic partner in statistical modeling and analysis, contributing mainly to WP1 and WP2, but found the research of fundamental interest therefore also allocating internal (NR) funding to develop the statistical science base of several of the methods.

A Benchmark Workshop for Demersal species (WKDEM), chaired by External Chair Richard D.M. Nash, UK and ICES Chair Daniel Howell, Norway and attended by two invited external experts Amy Schueller, US and Robert Boenish, US met at ICES, HQ, Copenhagen 9–13 December 2019 for a data evaluation meeting and at ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark, for a Benchmark meeting 10–14 February 2020. In addition, two WebEx meetings were convened (23rd October 2019 and 23rd February 2020) to discuss data issues and logistics related to the work plan prior to the data evaluation meeting and the Benchmark.Four demersal stocks were Benchmarked in WKDEM, Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic) (Had.27.1–2), Cod (Gadus morhua) in Division 6.a (West of Scotland) (Cod.27.6a), Whiting (Merlangius merlangus) in Division 6.a (West of Scotland) (Whg.27.6a) and Whiting in Division 3.a (Skagerrak and Kattegat) (Whg.27.3a).The 2020 benchmark for Northeast Arctic Haddock was proposed due to the poor retrospective pattern (annually changing perception of the stock) for the assessment in 2018. The final SAM model was based on the updated dataset and a new SAM setting allowing for plus groups in surveys. The final model had a lower AIC and more parameters compared to the configuration used in the previous assessment with the same data as the final model. Some changes were made to the prediction models, mainly to reflect the current perception of the stock dynamics. The reference points were not changed.The 2020 benchmark for 6.a cod was proposed initially due to uncertainties in the catch data and the selectivity patterns in the catch and survey data. In addition, a separate analysis of the stock estimated a different trend in fishing mortality and higher biomass, which lead to an inter-benchmark in February 2019. A number of alternative assessment methods were considered with a decision to switch from the TSA model to SAM. An improved approach to estimating area-misreported landings was implemented, and maturity and natural mortality values were modified. The survey data included in the final assessment are consistent (in terms of year and age range) with those used previously. The reference points were updated having been derived following the ICES guidelines and using EqSim. There was some concern that an alternative model, FAFmodel, along with an extension to allow natural mortality to be estimated by the model (“TVM” model) provided a different perception of the stock dynamics. The latter model was not presented for evaluation prior to the Benchmark and as such needs to be evaluated as to its efficacy for assessment of this stock in the future.The 2020 benchmark for 6.a whiting was proposed because the assessment was influenced partly by incorrect reporting of landings data (species and quantity) from the past which directly affected the perception of the stock. There were newly available catch data and reworked survey indices (including the combined Irish and Scottish Q4 survey), plus reworked maturity and natural mortality estimates were available. It became clear that running TSA with the new data and changed survey configuration resulted in poorly converged optimisation runs. An age-aggregated stochastic Surplus Production in Continuous Time (SPiCT) model was tried but the modelled stock level was highly uncertain, although the trends were considered more robust. The result was to reclassify 6.a whiting to category 3 using the SPiCT model to give trends, according to the ICES guidelines for data-limited stocks.The 2020 benchmark for 3.a whiting was proposed because it was considered a category 5 stock with no advice and more information is available (time-series of catches (landings and discards), a new fisheries independent biomass index that combines all relevant scientific surveys in the area) that were not being used but could be utilised to infer stock status and provide better catch advice. The outcome was to reclassify the stock to category 3 and provide advice using the “2-over-3” trend based approach with the new biomass index. An attempt to provide an analytical assessment for the stock using the surplus production model (SPiCT) was unsuccessful.

The purpose of the meeting was to bring up to date the methodologies and technical specifications that should be incorporated in Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) work in ICES. The workshop was tasked with reviewing recent methodological and practical MSE work conducted in ICES and around the world, as well as the guidelines provided by the 2013 ICES Workshop on Guidelines for Management Strategy Evaluations (WKGMSE). The Terms of Reference indicated that the revision should include all aspects involved in MSE, while paying specific attention to several issues that had been identified through ICES practice. The Terms of Reference also requested WKGMSE 2 to consider how best to disseminate the guidelines to experts within the ICES community and the need for training courses. The workshop addressed all its Terms of Reference. The main results of the workshop are the revised MSE guidelines, as well as recommendations in relation to the ICES criterion for defining a management strategy as precautionary and in relation to the evaluation and advice on rebuilding strategies.