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We used the 2012-2013 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions III (NESARC-III), a nationally representative sample of US adults (n = 34,653), to estimate the prevalence and correlates of HIV testing and HIV status. The diagnostic interview used was the Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule-DSM-5 Version. We found that in 2012-2013, the prevalence of a history of HIV testing was 53.0% among females and 47.0% among males. Among individuals tested, the prevalence of HIV was 1.06%, resulting in a known estimated prevalence of 0.54% in the full sample. In adjusted results, being non-white, aged 30-44, having college, being non-heterosexual, having history of unprotected sex or history of childhood sexual abuse and lower mental health-related quality of life increased the odds of having been tested, whereas being foreign-born, 45 years or older, family income ≥$20,000, being unemployed or a student, living in a rural setting and older age at first sex lowered those odds. Among those tested, being 30-64, being non-heterosexual, having history of unprotected sex or having a sexually transmitted disease in the last year was associated with greater odds of being HIV+. Having some college decreased those odds. In the adjusted results all psychiatric disorders were associated with increased rates of HIV testing, but only a lifetime history of drug use disorder and antisocial personality disorders were associated with HIV status among those tested. Despite CDC recommendations, only about half of US adults have ever been tested for HIV, interfering with efforts to eradicate HIV infection.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a severe infectious disease actively spreading globally, and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is an advanced stage of HIV infection. The HIV testing rate, that is, the probability that an AIDS-free HIV infected person seeks a test for HIV during a particular time interval, given no previous positive test has been obtained prior to the start of the time, is an important parameter for public health. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with two levels of hierarchy to estimate the HIV testing rate using annual AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnoses data. At level one, we model the latent number of HIV infections for each year using a Poisson distribution with the intensity parameter representing the HIV incidence rate. At level two, the annual numbers of AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnosed cases and all undiagnosed cases stratified by the HIV infections at different years are modeled using a multinomial distribution with parameters including the HIV testing rate. We propose a new class of priors for the HIV incidence rate and HIV testing rate taking into account the temporal dependence of these parameters to improve the estimation accuracy. We develop an efficient posterior computation algorithm based on the adaptive rejection metropolis sampling technique. We demonstrate our model using simulation studies and the analysis of the national HIV surveillance data in the USA.

The majority of persons infected with HIV live in large metropolitan areas and many such areas have implemented intensified HIV testing programs. A national indicator of HIV testing outcomes is late diagnosis of HIV infection (stage 3, AIDS). Based on National HIV Surveillance System data, 23.3 % of persons with HIV diagnosed in 2012 had a late diagnosis in large MSAs, 26.3 % in smaller MSAs, and 29.6 % in non-metropolitan areas. In the 105 large MSAs, the percentage diagnosed late ranged from 13.2 to 47.4 %. During 2003-2012, the percentage diagnosed late decreased in large MSAs (32.2-23.3 %), with significant decreases in 41 of 105 MSAs overall and among men who have sex with men. Sustained testing efforts may help to continue the decreasing trend in late-stage HIV diagnosis and provide opportunities for early care and treatment and potential reduction in HIV transmission.

BACKGROUND Residents of urban areas have accounted for the majority of persons diagnosed with HIV disease in the United States. Linking persons recently diagnosed with HIV to primary medical care is an important indicator in the National HIV/AIDS Strategy. METHODS We analyzed data reported to the HIV Surveillance System in 18 urban areas in the United States. Standardized executable SAS programs were distributed to determine the number of HIV cases living through 2008, number of HIV cases diagnosed in 2009, and the percentage of those diagnosed in 2009 who had reported CD4 lymphocyte or HIV viral load test results within 3 months of HIV diagnosis. Data were presented by jurisdiction, age group at diagnosis, race/ethnicity, sex at birth, birth country, disease stage, and transmission category. RESULTS By jurisdiction, the percentage of persons diagnosed in 2009 with at least 1 CD4 or HIV viral load test within 3 months of diagnosis ranged from 48.5% to 92.5% (median: 70.9). The percentage of persons linked to care varied by age group and by racial/ethnic groups. Fourteen of the 18 areas reported that the percentage of persons linked to care was greater than 65%, the baseline measure indicated in the National HIV/AIDS Strategy. CONCLUSIONS A wide range in percent linked to HIV medical care was observed between residents of 18 urban areas in the United States with noted age and racial disparities. Routine testing and linkage efforts and intensified prevention efforts should be considered to increase access to primary HIV-related medical care.

HIV testing efforts increased in recent years to reduce the percentage of persons with HIV unaware of their infection and to detect HIV early. An analysis of CD4 data from national HIV surveillance indicates that diagnosis delays decreased during 2003-2011; on average, persons diagnosed in 2011 had been infected 5.6 years before their diagnosis compared with 7.0 years among those diagnosed in 2003. Diagnosis delays were longer among females, blacks, Hispanics/Latinos, and older persons, but shorter among men who have sex with men, compared with their counterparts. Continued efforts to implement routine testing can help reduce diagnosis delays.

Purpose We estimated female and male incident AIDS diagnosis rates (IARs) among people who inject drugs (PWID) in U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over time to assess whether declines in IARs varied by sex after combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) dissemination. Methods We compared IARs and 95% confidence intervals for female and male PWID in 95 of the most populous MSAs. To stabilize estimates, we aggregated data across three-year periods, selecting a period immediately preceding cART (1993–1995) and the most recent after the introduction of cART for which data were available (2005–2007). We assessed disparities by comparing IAR 95% confidence intervals for overlap, female-to-male risk ratios, and disparity change scores. Results IARs declined an average of 58% for female PWID and 67% for male PWID between the pre-cART and cART periods. Among female PWID, IARs were significantly lower in the later period relative to the pre-cART period in 48% of MSAs. Among male PWID, IARs were significantly lower over time in 86% of MSAs. Conclusions IARs among female PWID in large U.S. MSAs have declined more slowly than among male PWID. This suggests a need for increased targeting of prevention and treatment programs and for research on MSA level conditions that may drive differences in declining AIDS rates among female and male PWID.

Objective :Compare age-adjusted rates of death due to liver, kidney, and heart diseases during 2009-2011 among US residents diagnosed with HIV infection with those in the general population.Methods :Numerators were numbers of records of multiple-cause mortality data from the national vital statistics system with an ICD-10 code for the disease of interest (any mention, not necessarily the underlying cause), divided into those 1) with and 2) without an additional code for HIV infection. Denominators were 1) estimates of persons living with diagnosed HIV infection from national HIV surveillance system data and 2) general population estimates from the US Census Bureau. We compared age-adjusted rates overall (unstratified by sex, race/ethnicity, or region of residence) and stratified by demographic group.Results :Overall, compared with the general population, persons diagnosed with HIV infection had higher age-adjusted rates of death reported with hepatitis B (rate ratio [RR]=42.6; 95% CI: 34.7-50.7), hepatitis C (RR=19.4; 95% CI: 18.1-20.8), liver disease excluding hepatitis B or C (RR=2.1; 95% CI: 1.8-2.3), kidney disease (RR=2.4; 95% CI: 2.2-2.6), and cardiomyopathy (RR=1.9; 95% CI: 1.6-2.3), but lower rates of death reported with ischemic heart disease (RR=0.6; 95% CI: 0.6-0.7) and heart failure (RR=0.8; 95% CI: 0.6-0.9). However, the differences in rates of death reported with the heart diseases were insignificant in some demographic groups.Conclusion :Persons with HIV infection have a higher risk of death with liver and kidney diseases reported as causes than the general population.

The burden of HIV infection and health outcomes for people living with HIV varies across the United States. New methods allow for estimating national and state-level HIV incidence, prevalence, and undiagnosed infections using surveillance data and CD4 values.HIV surveillance data reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the first CD4 value after diagnosis were used to estimate the distribution of delay from infection to diagnosis based on a well-characterized CD4 depletion model. This distribution was used to estimate HIV incidence, prevalence, and undiagnosed infections during 2010-2014. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess trends.During 2010-2014, HIV incidence decreased 10.3% (EAPC = -3.1%) and the percentage of undiagnosed infection decreased from 17.1% to 15.0% (EAPC = -3.3%) in the United States; HIV prevalence increased 9.1% (EAPC = 2.2%). Among 36 jurisdictions with sufficient data to produce stable estimates, HIV incidence decreased in 3 jurisdictions (Georgia, New York, and District of Columbia) and the percentage of undiagnosed HIV infections decreased in 2 states (Texas and Georgia). HIV prevalence increased in 4 states (California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas). In 2014, southern states accounted for 50% of both new HIV infections and undiagnosed infections.HIV incidence and undiagnosed infection decreased in the United States during 2010-2014; however, outcomes varied by state and region. Progress in national HIV prevention is encouraging but intensified efforts for testing and treatment are needed in the South and states with high percentages of undiagnosed infection.

Achieving linkage to care and viral suppression in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients improves their well-being and prevents new infections. Current gaps in the HIV care continuum substantially limit such benefits.To evaluate the effectiveness of financial incentives on linkage to care and viral suppression in HIV-positive patients.A large community-based clinical trial that randomized 37 HIV test and 39 HIV care sites in the Bronx, New York, and Washington, DC, to financial incentives or standard of care.Participants at financial incentive test sites who had positive test results for HIV received coupons redeemable for $125 cash-equivalent gift cards upon linkage to care. HIV-positive patients receiving antiretroviral therapy at financial incentive care sites received $70 gift cards quarterly, if virally suppressed.Linkage to care: proportion of HIV-positive persons at the test site who linked to care within 3 months, as indicated by CD4+ and/or viral load test results done at a care site. Viral suppression: proportion of established patients at HIV care sites with suppressed viral load (400 copies/mL), assessed at each calendar quarter. Outcomes assessed through laboratory test results reported to the National HIV Surveillance System.A total of 1061 coupons were dispensed for linkage to care at 18 financial incentive test sites and 39 359 gift cards were dispensed to 9641 HIV-positive patients eligible for gift cards at 17 financial incentive care sites. Financial incentives did not increase linkage to care (adjusted odds ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.73-1.67; P = .65). However, financial incentives significantly increased viral suppression. The overall proportion of patients with viral suppression was 3.8% higher (95% CI, 0.7%-6.8%; P = .01) at financial incentive sites compared with standard of care sites. Among patients not previously consistently virally suppressed, the proportion virally suppressed was 4.9% higher (95% CI, 1.4%-8.5%; P = .007) at financial incentive sites. In addition, continuity in care was 8.7% higher (95% CI, 4.2%-13.2%; P .001) at financial incentive sites.Financial incentives, as used in this study (HPTN 065), significantly increased viral suppression and regular clinic attendance among HIV-positive patients in care. No effect was noted on linkage to care. Financial incentives offer promise for improving adherence to treatment and viral suppression among HIV-positive patients.clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01152918.

Using data from the National HIV Surveillance System, we examined HIV infections diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 attributed to heterosexual contact with partners previously known to be HIV infected. More than four in 10 HIV infections among heterosexual males and five in 10 HIV infections among heterosexual women were attributed to this group. Findings may inform the prioritization of prevention and care efforts and resource allocation modeling for reducing new HIV infection among discordant partnerships.

Background: Little information is available about care before death among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected persons who die of HIV infection, compared with those who die of other causes. Objective: The objective of our study was to compare HIV care and outcome before death among persons with HIV who died of HIV-attributable versus other causes. Methods: We used National HIV Surveillance System data on CD4 T-lymphocyte counts and viral loads within 12 months before death in 2012, as well as on underlying cause of death. Deaths were classified as “HIV-attributable” if the reported underlying cause was HIV infection, an AIDS-defining disease, or immunodeficiency and as attributable to “other causes” if the cause was anything else. Persons were classified as “in continuous care” if they had ≥2 CD4 or viral load test results ≥3 months apart in those 12 months and as having “viral suppression” if their last viral load was

Test-and-treat programs are central to the global control of HIV, but transmitted drug resistance threatens the effectiveness of these programs. HIV mutations conferring resistance to antiretroviral drugs reduce replicative fitness in vitro, but their effect on propagation in vivo is less understood. Here, we estimate transmission fitness of these mutations in antiretroviral-naïve populations in the U.S. National HIV Surveillance System by comparing their frequency of clustering in a genetic transmission network relative with wild-type viruses. The large dataset (66,221 persons), comprising 30,196 antiretroviral-naïve persons, permitted the evaluation of sixty-nine resistance mutations. Decreased transmission fitness was demonstrated for twenty-three mutations, including M184V. In contrast, many high prevalence mutations (e.g. K103N, Y181C, and L90M) had transmission fitness that was indistinguishable from or exceeded wild-type fitness, permitting the establishment of large, self-sustaining drug resistance reservoirs. We highlight implications of these findings on strategies to preserve global treatment effectiveness.

National rates from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and sexually transmitted disease (STD) surveillance may not effectively convey the impact of HIV and STDs on American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) communities. Instead, we compared average annual diagnosis rates per 100,000 population of HIV, chlamydia (CT), gonorrhea (GC), and primary and secondary (P&S) syphilis, from 2007 to 2010, among AI/AN aged ≥ 13 years residing in 625 counties in the 12 Indian Health Service Areas, all AI/AN, and all races/ethnicities to address this gap. AI/AN comprised persons reported as AI/AN only, with or without Hispanic ethnicity. Out of 12 IHS Areas, 10 had higher case rates for CT, 3 for GC, and 4 for P&S syphilis compared to rates for all races/ethnicities. Eight Areas had higher HIV diagnosis rates than for all AI/AN, but HIV rates for all IHS Areas were lower than national rates for all races/ethnicities. Two IHS Areas ranking highest in rates of CT and GC and four Areas with highest P&S syphilis also had high HIV rates. STD and HIV rates among AI/AN were greater in certain IHS Areas than expected from observing national rates for AI/AN. Integrated surveillance of overlapping trends in STDs and HIV may be useful in guiding prevention efforts for AI/AN populations.

Objectives. We sought to describe HIV diagnoses among men who have sex with men and women (MSMW), who have the potential to bridge HIV transmission risk from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women. Methods. Applying National HIV Surveillance System data for persons aged 13 years and older, we examined estimated numbers and percentages of HIV diagnoses among MSMW and MSM only (MSMO) from 2008 to 2011, and estimated the annual percentage change and 95% confidence intervals, by age and race/ethnicity. Results. In 2011, 26.4% of 30 896 MSM diagnosed with HIV infection also had had sex with women. A larger percentage of MSMW were Black/African American (44.5%) compared with MSMO (36.0%), and fewer MSMW were White (26.4%) compared with MSMO (36.2%); similar percentages were classified as either MWMW or MSMO among other racial/ethnic groups. Among MSMW, HIV diagnoses were relatively stable and MSMO increased more than 6% annually among those aged 13 to 29 years. Conclusions. Many MSM diagnosed with HIV infection had also had sex with women. Intensified interventions are needed to decrease HIV infections overall for MSMW and reverse the increasing trends among young MSMO.

Objectives. We estimated race/ethnicity-specific incident AIDS diagnosis rates (IARs) among people who inject drugs (PWID) in U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over time to assess the change in disparities after highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) dissemination. Methods. We compared IARs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for black/African American and Hispanic/Latino PWID with those of white PWID in 93 of the most populous MSAs. We selected two three-year periods from the years immediately preceding HAART (1993–1995) and the years with the most recent available data (2005–2007). To maximize stability, we aggregated data across three-year periods, and we aggregated data for black/African American and Hispanic/Latino PWID for most comparisons with data for white PWID. We assessed disparities by comparing IAR 95% CIs for overlap. Results. IARs were significantly higher for black/African American and Hispanic/Latino PWID than for white PWID in 81% of MSAs in 1993–1995 and 77% of MSAs in 2005–2007. MSAs where disparities became non-significant over time were concentrated in the West. Significant differences were more frequent in comparisons between black/African American and white PWID (85% of MSAs in 1993–1995, 79% of MSAs in 2005–2007) than in comparisons between Hispanic/Latino and white PWID (53% of MSAs in 1993–1995, 56% of MSAs in 2005–2007). IARs declined modestly across racial/ethnic groups in most MSAs. Conclusions. AIDS diagnosis rates continue to be substantially higher for black/African American and Hispanic/Latino PWID than for white PWID in most large MSAs. This finding suggests a need for increased targeting of prevention and treatment programs, as well as research on MSA-level conditions that may serve to maintain the disparities.

BACKGROUND Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at increased risk for poor health outcomes and bloodborne infections, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus and hepatitis B virus infections. Although substantial progress has been made in reducing HIV infections among PWID, recent changes in drug use could challenge this success. METHODS CDC used National HIV Surveillance System data to analyze trends in HIV diagnoses. Further, National HIV Behavioral Surveillance interviews of PWID in 22 cities were analyzed to describe risk behaviors and use of prevention services among all PWID and among PWID who first injected drugs during the 5 years before their interview (new PWID). RESULTS During 2008-2014, HIV diagnoses among PWID declined in urban and nonurban areas, but have leveled off in recent years. Among PWID in 22 cities, during 2005-2015, syringe sharing decreased by 34% among blacks/African Americans (blacks) and by 12% among Hispanics/Latinos (Hispanics), but remained unchanged among whites. The racial composition of new PWID changed during 2005-2015: the percentage who were black decreased from 38% to 19%, the percentage who were white increased from 38% to 54%, and the percentage who were Hispanic remained stable. Among new PWID interviewed in 2015, whites engaged in riskier injection behaviors than blacks. CONCLUSIONS Decreases in HIV diagnoses among PWID indicate success in HIV prevention. However, emerging behavioral and demographic trends could reverse this success. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE Access to comprehensive prevention services is essential for all PWID. Syringe services programs reduce syringe sharing and can help PWID access prevention and treatment services for HIV and other bloodborne diseases, such as hepatitis C and hepatitis B.

Tipping point ratios

Introduction The incidence and prevalence of HIV infection are important measures of HIV trends; however, they are difficult to estimate because of the long incubation period between infection and symptom development and the relative infrequency of HIV screening. A new method is introduced to estimate HIV incidence, prevalence, and the number of undiagnosed infections in the United States using data from the HIV case surveillance system and CD4 test results. Methods Persons with HIV diagnosed during 2006-2013 and their CD4 test results were used to estimate the distribution of diagnosis delay from HIV infection to diagnosis based on a well-characterized CD4 depletion model. This distribution was then used to estimate HIV incidence, prevalence, and the number of undiagnosed infections. Results Applying this method, we estimated that the annual number of new HIV infections decreased after 2007, from 48,300 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 47,300 to 49,400) to 39,000 (95% CI: 36,600 to 41,400) in 2013. Prevalence increased from 923,200 (95% CI: 914,500 to 931,800) in 2006 to 1,104,600 (95% CI: 1,084,300 to 1,124,900) in 2013, whereas the proportion of undiagnosed infections decreased from 21.0% in 2006 (95% CI: 20.2% to 21.7%) to 16.4% (95% CI: 15.7% to 17.2%) in 2013. Conclusions HIV incidence, prevalence, and undiagnosed infections can be estimated using HIV case surveillance data and information on first CD4 test result after diagnosis. Similar to earlier findings, the decreases in incidence and undiagnosed infections are encouraging but intensified efforts for HIV testing and treatment are needed to meet the goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy.

The HIV care continuum is used to monitor success in HIV diagnosis and treatment among persons living with HIV in the United States. Significant differences exist along the HIV care continuum between subpopulations of people living with HIV; however, differences that may exist between residents of rural and nonrural areas have not been reported.We analyzed the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National HIV Surveillance System data on adults and adolescents (≥13 years) with HIV diagnosed in 28 jurisdictions with complete reporting of HIV-related lab results. Lab data were used to assess linkage to care (≥1 CD4 or viral load test ≤3 months of diagnosis), retention in care (≥2 CD4 and/or viral load tests ≥3 months apart), and viral suppression (viral load200 copies/mL) among persons living with HIV. Residence at diagnosis was grouped into rural (50,000 population), urban (50,000-499,999 population), and metropolitan (≥500,000 population) categories for statistical comparison. Prevalence ratios and 95% CI were calculated to assess significant differences in linkage, retention, and viral suppression.Although greater linkage to care was found for rural residents (84.3%) compared to urban residents (83.3%) and metropolitan residents (81.9%), significantly lower levels of retention in care and viral suppression were found for residents of rural (46.2% and 50.0%, respectively) and urban (50.2% and 47.2%) areas compared to residents of metropolitan areas (54.5% and 50.8%).Interventions are needed to increase retention in care and viral suppression among people with HIV in nonmetropolitan areas of the United States.

Background Although human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is an established risk factor for several bacterial infections, the association between HIV infection and meningococcal disease remains unclear. Methods Expanded chart reviews were completed on persons with meningococcal disease and HIV infection reported from 2000 through 2008 from 9 US sites participating in an active population-based surveillance system for meningococcal disease. The incidence of meningococcal disease among patients meeting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) surveillance criteria was estimated using data from the National HIV Surveillance System for the participating sites. Results Thirty-three cases of meningococcal disease in individuals with HIV infection were reported from participating sites, representing 2.0% of all reported meningococcal disease cases. Most (75.8%) persons with HIV infection were adult males aged 25 to 64 years old. Among all meningococcal disease cases aged 25 to 64 years old, case fatality ratios were similar among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected persons (13.3% vs 10.6%; P = .6). The cumulative, mean incidence of meningococcal disease among patients aged 25 to 64 years old with HIV infection ever classified as AIDS was 3.5 cases per 100000 person years (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1–5.6), compared with 0.3 cases per 100000 person years (95% CI, 0.3–0.3) for persons of the same age group not reported to have AIDS (relative risk = 12.9; 95% CI, 7.9–20.9). Conclusions Individuals with HIV infection meeting the AIDS surveillance case definition have a higher incidence of meningococcal disease compared with the general adult population.

Background Increased attention has been focused on health disparities among racial/ethnic groups in the U.S. Purpose To assess the extent of progress toward meeting the targets of Healthy People 2010 objectives and eliminating disparities. Methods All diagnoses of AIDS during 2000–2009 among people aged ≥13 years in the 50 states and District of Columbia, reported to national HIV surveillance through June 2010, together with census population data were used in this analysis (conducted in March 2011). This study assesses the trend in racial/ethnic disparities in rates of AIDS diagnoses both between particular groups using rate difference (RD) and rate ratio (RR) and across the entire range of racial/ethnic subgroups using three summary measures of disparity: between-group variance (BGV); Theil index (TI); and mean log deviation (MLD). Results The overall racial/ethnic disparity, black–white disparity, and Hispanic–white disparity in rates of AIDS diagnoses decreased for those aged 25–64 years from 2000 to 2009. The black–white and Hispanic–white disparity in rates of AIDS diagnoses also decreased among men aged ≥65 years; however, the black–white disparity increased among young men aged 13–24 years (BGV: p p Conclusions Findings indicate overall decreases in racial/ethnic disparities in AIDS diagnoses except in young men, particularly young black men aged 13–24 years where the burden of AIDS is increasing. HIV testing, prevention, treatment and policy-making should be a priority for this group.

Laboratory data reported through HIV surveillance can provide information about disease severity and linkage to care; however these measures are only as accurate as the quality and completeness of data reported. Using data from five states that implemented enhanced collection of laboratory data in HIV surveillance from 2005-2006, we determined completeness of reporting, stage of disease at diagnosis, the most common opportunistic illnesses (OI) at diagnosis, and linkage to medical care. Methods to enhance laboratory reporting included increasing active surveillance efforts, identifying laboratories not reporting to HIV surveillance, increasing electronic reporting, and using laboratory results from auxiliary databases. Of 3,065 persons ≥13 years of age diagnosed with HIV, 35.5% were diagnosed with stage 3 (AIDS) and 37.7% progressed to stage 3 within 12-months after diagnosis. Overall, 78.5% were linked to care within 3 months; however, a higher proportion of persons with ≥1 CD4 or viral load test was found among whites compared with blacks/African Americans (82.1% vs 73.6%, p

Introduction:Modeling studies suggest intensified HIV testing, linkage-to-care and antiretroviral treatment to achieve viral suppression may reduce HIV transmission and lead to control of the epidemic. To study implementation of strategy, population-level data are needed to monitor outcomes of these interventions. US HIV surveillance systems are a potential source of these data.Methods:HPTN065 (TLC-Plus) Study is evaluating the feasibility of a test, linkage-to-care, and treat strategy for HIV prevention in two intervention communities - the Bronx, NY, and Washington, DC. Routinely collected laboratory data on diagnosed HIV cases in the national HIV surveillance system were used to select and randomize sites, and will be used to assess trial outcomes.Results:To inform study randomization, baseline data on site-aggregated study outcomes was provided from HIV surveillance data by New York City and Washington D.C. Departments of Health. The median site rate of linkage-to-care for newly diagnosed cases was 69% (IQR 50%-86%) in the Bronx and 54% (IQR 33%-71%) in Washington, D.C. In participating HIV care sites, the median site percent of patients with viral suppression (Conclusions:In a novel use of site-aggregated surveillance data, baseline data was used to design and evaluate site randomized studies for both HIV test and HIV care sites. Surveillance data have the potential to inform and monitor sitelevel health outcomes in HIV-infected patients.

Background Monitoring immunologic and virologic responses to antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1-infected patients is an important component of treatment in the United States. However, little population-based information is available on whether HIV-infected persons receive the recommended tests or continuous care. Methods Using data from 13 areas reporting relevant HIV-related tests to national HIV surveillance, we determined retention in care in persons older than 12 years living with HIV at the end of 2009. We assessed retention in care, defined as ≥2 CD4 or viral load tests at least 3 months apart in the past year, by demographic, clinical, and risk characteristics and calculated prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals. We also assessed the percentage established in care within 12 months after HIV diagnosis in 2008 (≥2 tests, ≥3 months apart). Results Among 100,375 persons living with HIV, 45% had ≥2 tests at least 3 months apart. A higher percentage of whites were retained in care (50%) compared with blacks/African Americans (41%, prevalence ratio: 0.83, 95% confidence interval: 0.82 to 0.84) and Hispanics/Latinos (40%, prevalence ratio: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.87 to 0.92). Compared with heterosexual women (50%), fewer men who have sex with men (48%), heterosexual men (45%), and male (37%) and female (43%) injection drug users had ≥2 tests. Approximately 64% established care within 12 months of diagnosis. Conclusions Less than half of persons living with HIV had laboratory evidence of ongoing clinical care and only two thirds established care after diagnosis. Further assessments determining modifiable barriers to accessing care could assist with achieving public health targets.

Transmission rate modeling estimated secondary infections from those aware and unaware of their HIV infection. An estimated 49% of transmissions were from the 20% of persons living with HIV unaware of their infection. About eight transmissions would be averted per 100 persons newly aware of their infection; with more infections averted the higher the percentage of persons with viral suppression who can be linked to care. Improving all stages of HIV care would substantially reduce transmission rates.

The recent NIH HPTN 052 study of using HIV treatment to prevent HIV transmission in serostatus discordant heterosexual partnerships has garnered much attention. In subsequent discussions, however, the topic of HIV-related risk behavior has been nearly absent. Here, we identify the critical roles that HIV-related risk behavior plays in determining the unmet needs, optimal targeting, and ultimate impact of treatment as prevention. We describe the size of the population at risk of HIV and three subgroups of persons living with HIV (PLWH) based on awareness of serostatus and risk behavior, and the corresponding HIV transmission rates to seronegative partners. For each of the subgroups of PLWH, we identify which approach is most relevant ("testing and linkage to care," "treatment as prevention," and/or "treatment as clinical care"). We observe that the impact of "treatment as prevention" on HIV incidence will depend heavily on which subgroup of PLWH is targeted for services.

Death due to HIV remains a leading cause of death among some U.S. populations, yet little is known about HIV care before death. We used data from the National HIV Surveillance System to determine disease stage and care within 12 months prior to death among persons infected with HIV who died in 2012. Persons were considered to be in care within 12 months before death if they had ≥1 CD4 or viral load test results, and in continuous care if they had ≥2 CD4 or viral load test results at least 3 months apart. Viral suppression (viral load

Background Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) is known to be protective against HIV-related mortality, the expected magnitude of effect is unclear because existing estimates of the effect of ART may not directly generalize to recently HIV-diagnosed persons. Methods In this study, we estimated 5-year mortality risks for immediate versus no ART initiation among patients (n = 12,547) in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) using the complement of adjusted Kaplan-Meier survival functions. We subsequently standardized estimates to persons diagnosed with HIV in the USA between 2009 and 2011, who were enumerated using national surveillance data. Results The 5-year mortality, had all patients in the CNICS immediately initiated ART, was 10.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 9.3%, 11.9%] compared with 28.3% (95% CI: 19.1%, 37.5%) had ART initiation been delayed at least 5 years. The 5-year mortality risk difference due to ART among patients in the CNICS was -17.7% (95% CI: -27.0%, -8.4%). Based on methods for generalizing an estimate from a study sample to a different target population, the expected risk difference due to ART initiation among recently HIV-diagnosed persons in the USA was -19.1% (95% CI: -30.5%, -7.8%). Conclusions Immediate ART initiation substantially lowers mortality among persons in the CNICS and this benefit is expected to be similar among persons recently diagnosed with HIV in the USA. We demonstrate a method by which concerns about generalizability can be addressed and evaluated quantitatively.

Challenges exist in the study of social determinants of health (SDH) because of limited comparability of population-based U.S. data on SDH. This limitation is due to differences in disparity or equity measurements, as well as general data quality and availability. We reviewed the current SDH variables collected for HIV, viral hepatitis, sexually transmitted diseases, and tuberculosis at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through its population-based surveillance systems and assessed specific system attributes. Results were used to provide recommendations for a core set of SDH variables to collect that are both feasible and useful. We also conducted an environmental literature scan to determine the status of knowledge of SDH as underlying causes of disease and to inform the recommended core set of SDH variables.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends routine HIV screening in health care settings. Using national surveillance data, we assessed trends in HIV diagnoses and testing frequency in youth aged 13-24 diagnosed with HIV in 2005-2008. Diagnosis rates increased among black (17.0% per year), Hispanic (13.5%), and white males (8.8%), with increases driven by men who have sex with men (MSM). A higher percentage of white males and MSM had previously been tested than their counterparts. No increases in diagnoses or differences in testing were observed among females. Intensified interventions are needed to reduce HIV infections and racial/ethnic disparities.

This ecologic cohort study explores the relationship between state minimum wage laws and rates of HIV diagnoses among heterosexual black residents of U.S metropolitan areas over an 8-year span. Specifically, we applied hierarchical linear modeling to investigate whether state-level variations in minimum wage laws, adjusted for cost-of-living and inflation, were associated with rates of new HIV diagnoses among heterosexual black residents of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs; n=73), between 2008 and 2015. Findings suggest that an inverse relationship exists between baseline state minimum wages and initial rates of newly diagnosed HIV cases among heterosexual black individuals, after adjusting for potential confounders. MSAs with a minimum wage that was $1 higher at baseline had a 27.12% lower rate of newly diagnosed HIV cases. Exploratory analyses suggest that income inequality may mediate this relationship. If subsequent research establishes a causal relationship between minimum wage and this outcome, efforts to increase minimum wages should be incorporated into HIV prevention strategies for this vulnerable population., Highlights • Results from a study using hierarchical linear modeling found a significant, inverse relationship between state minimum wage, and rates of newly diagnosed HIV cases among black heterosexuals, after adjusting for cost-of-living and controlling for confounders. • Findings suggest that an inverse relationship exists between baseline state minimum wages and initial rates of newly diagnosed HIV cases among heterosexual black individuals, after adjusting for potential confounders. • MSAs with a minimum wage that was $1 higher at baseline had a 27.12% lower rate of newly diagnosed HIV cases. • Exploratory analyses suggest that income inequality may mediate this relationship.

This study uses National HIV Behavioral Surveillance survey data to estimate the proportion of men who have sex with men and persons who inject drugs unaware of their HIV infection who missed opportunities for testing and diagnosis in clinical settings.

Objectives: To describe adults/adolescents (age 13 years and older) living with undiagnosed HIV infection in the United States at the end of 2006. Methods: HIV prevalence and percentage undiagnosed were estimated from cumulative HIV incidence using an extended back-calculation model (using both HIV and AIDS data, the time of first diagnosis with HIV, and disease severity at diagnosis) and estimated cumulative deaths. Results: An estimated 1,106,400 adults/adolescents (95% confidence interval = 1,056,400-1,156,400) were living with HIV in the United States at the end of 2006; overall, 21.0% (232,700; 95% confidence interval = 221,200-244,200) were undiagnosed. Whites had the lowest percentage undiagnosed (18.8%) compared with Hispanics/Latinos (21.6%), blacks/African Americans (22.2%), American Indians/Alaska Natives (25.8%), and Asians/Pacific Islanders (29.5%; all P < 0.001). Persons with a behavioral risk of injection drug use (IDU) had the lowest percentage undiagnosed (female IDU: 13.7% and male IDU: 14.5%); men exposed through heterosexual contact had the highest (26.7%) followed by men who have sex with men (23.5%). Conclusions: Differences in undiagnosed HIV were evident across demographic and behavior groups. Effective testing programs and early access to treatment and prevention services are necessary to reduce undiagnosed HIV infections and HIV prevalence.

HIV infection is a persistent health concern in the United States, and men who have sex with men (MSM) continue to be the most affected population.To estimate HIV incidence and prevalence and the percentage of undiagnosed HIV infections overall and among MSM.Cross-sectional analysis.National HIV Surveillance System.Persons aged 13 years or older with diagnosed HIV infection.Data on HIV diagnoses and the first CD4 test result after diagnosis were used to model HIV incidence and prevalence and the percentage of undiagnosed HIV infections from 2008 to 2015 on the basis of a well-characterized CD4 depletion model.Modeled HIV incidence decreased 14.8% overall, from 45 200 infections in 2008 to 38 500 in 2015, and among all transmission risk groups except MSM. The incidence of HIV increased 3.1% (95% CI, 1.6% to 4.5%) per year among Hispanic/Latino MSM (6300 infections in 2008, 7900 in 2015), decreased 2.7% (CI, -3.8% to -1.5%) per year among white MSM (8800 infections in 2008, 7100 in 2015), and remained stable among black MSM at about 10 000 infections. The incidence decreased by 3.0% (CI, -4.2% to -1.8%) per year among MSM aged 13 to 24 years and by 4.7% (CI, -6.2% to -3.1%) per year among those aged 35 to 44 years. Among MSM aged 25 to 34 years, HIV incidence increased 5.7% (CI, 4.4% to 7.0%) per year and among MSM aged 55 years and older, HIV increased 4.1% (CI, 0.8% to 7.4%). The percentage of undiagnosed HIV infections was higher among black, Hispanic/Latino, and younger MSM than white and older MSM, respectively.Assumptions of the CD4 depletion model and variability of CD4 values.Expansion of HIV screening to reduce undiagnosed infections and increased access to care and treatment to achieve viral suppression are critical to reduce HIV transmission. Access to prevention methods, such as condoms and preexposure prophylaxis, also is needed, particularly among MSM of color and young MSM.None.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the most common method used in multiple imputation. However, it is not unbiased when it is applied to imputations of categorical variables. The literature has considered the problem for binary variables with only two levels. In this article, we consider more general situations. We not only evaluate the bias associated with the imputation of categorical variables using the MCMC method, but also introduce a method to correct the bias. A simulation study is conducted and an application is provided to demonstrate the advantages of using the correction factors proposed in this article.

The population at the U.S.-Mexico border has experienced growth, more than double the U.S. national average. Movements of populations in this region have contributed to increased incidence of certain infectious diseases. We used information on persons diagnosed with HIV during 2003 to 2006 and aged 13 years or older (n = 4,279) reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for 45 U.S. border counties. We estimated the annual percent change and rates with Poisson regression. Overall, 47% of persons diagnosed with HIV in the border region were Hispanic; 39% nonHispanic white; and 10% nonHispanic black. During 2003 to 2006, HIV diagnoses increased 7.8% per year. Increases were observed among males, particularly among men who have sex with men. Among females, HIV diagnoses remained stable but decreased among females in nonborder regions. The number of HIV diagnoses at the border has increased. To decrease incidence of HIV disease it is necessary to develop prevention and education programs specific to this region. The population along the U.S.–Mexico border has experienced tremendous growth, more than double the U.S. national average (United States–Mexico Border Health Commission, 2001). According to the U.S. Census Bureau (2001b), between 1990 and 2000, the region experienced a 21% increase in population. Movements of populations in this region have contributed to increased incidence of some infectious diseases, including tuberculosis, hepatitis A, botulism, brucellosis, measles, mumps, rabies, rubella, salmonellosis, and shigellosis (Doyle & Bryan, 2000; Perez, Brown, & Restrepo, 2006; Redlinger, O’Rourke, Nickey, & Martinez, 1998). Factors such as population migration, socioeconomic status, and demographic characteristics may contribute to the risk of HIV infection, and an increase in the population affects the health care infrastructure. Migration patterns in the border region may contribute to the risk for HIV infection because change in residence can result in homelessness, loneliness, isolation, and financial instability. In turn, these factors can result in new sex partners, drug use, and inadequate access to health care services (Hirsch, Higgins, Bentley, & Na

To determine the status of the HIV epidemic in the United States and Canada.We used data on AIDS and HIV diagnoses for 1996-2005 reported to the United States and Canadian national surveillance systems to determine trends in AIDS and HIV (33 US states only) diagnoses and to identify population groups most affected by HIV. HIV incidence for Canada was determined using back-calculation methods. We also determined the proportion of persons diagnosed late (HIV diagnosis within 12 months before AIDS diagnosis).AIDS diagnosis rates were higher in 2005 among blacks (54.1 per 100,000) and Hispanics (18.0) compared with whites (5.9) in the United States and among blacks (4.7) and aboriginal peoples (4.9) compared with whites (0.7) in Canada. Since 2001, HIV diagnoses increased among men who have sex with men in both countries and in Canada, increased among persons from HIV-endemic countries and where heterosexual contact was the only identified risk of transmission. Overall, HIV incidence remained relatively stable in Canada during that period. A large proportion of persons were diagnosed late in the disease process (United States, 54.3%; Canada, 64.2%).Rates of HIV transmission remain a challenge in both the United States and Canada as overall diagnosis rates have not decreased in recent years. Renewed prevention efforts are needed to further reduce the high HIV diagnosis rates among racial/ethnic minorities and to decrease HIV transmission among men who have sex with men.

To estimate relative survival (RS) after human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis, by race/ethnicity and county-level socioeconomic status (SES).We estimated 5-year RS by age, race/ethnicity, transmission category, sex, diagnosis year, CD4 count, and by county-level SES variables from the U.S. Census. Data, from the national HIV/AIDS Reporting System, were for HIV-infected persons agesor =13 years (diagnosis during 1996-2003 and follow-up through 2005). We calculated RS proportions by using a maximum likelihood algorithm and modeled the relative risk of excess death (RR) using generalized linear models, with poverty as a random effect.For men, RS was worse in counties with larger proportions of people living below the 2000 U.S. poverty level (87.7% for poverty ofor =20% vs. 90.1% for poverty of5.0%) and where unemployment was greater (87.8% where unemployment7.1% vs. 90.5% where unemployment4.0%). The effects of county-level SES on RS of women were similar. In multilevel multivariate models, RR for men and women within 5 years after an HIV diagnosis was significantly worse in counties where 10.0-19.9% (compared with5.0%) lived below the poverty level (RR = 1.3 [95% CI 1.2-1.5] and RR = 1.8 [95% CI 1.4-2.2], respectively).RS was worse in lower SES areas. To help address the impact of county-level SES, resources for HIV testing, care, and proven economic interventions should be directed to areas with concentrations of economically disadvantaged people.

The development of an human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) test that detects recent infection has enabled the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to estimate annual HIV incidence (number of new infections per year, not per person at risk) in the United States from data on new HIV and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) diagnoses reported to HIV/AIDS surveillance. We developed statistical procedures to estimate the probability that an infected person will be detected as recently infected, accounting for individuals choosing whether and how frequently to seek HIV testing, variation of testing frequency, the reporting of test results only for infected persons, and infected persons who never had an HIV-negative test. The incidence estimate is the number of persons detected as recently infected divided by the estimated probability of detection. We used simulation to show that, under the assumptions we make, our procedures have acceptable bias and correct confidence interval coverage. Because data on the biomarker for recent infection or on testing history were missing for many persons, we used multiple imputation to apply our models to surveillance data. CDC has used these procedures to estimate HIV incidence in the United States.

Data are limited regarding cancer risk in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons with modest immunosuppression, before the onset of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). For some cancers, risk may be affected by highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) widely available since 1996. We linked HIV/AIDS and cancer registries in Colorado, Florida and New Jersey. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) compared cancer risk in HIV-infected persons (initially AIDS-free) during the 5-year period after registration with the general population. Poisson regression was used to compare incidence across subgroups, adjusting for demographic factors. Among 57,350 HIV-infected persons registered during 1991-2002 (median CD4 count 491 cells/mm(3)), 871 cancers occurred during follow-up. Risk was elevated for Kaposi sarcoma (KS, SIR 1,300 [n = 173 cases]), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL, 7.3 [n = 203]), cervical cancer (2.9 [n = 28]) and several non-AIDS-defining malignancies, including Hodgkin lymphoma (5.6 [n = 36]) and cancers of the lung (2.6 [n = 109]) and liver (2.7 [n = 14]). KS and NHL incidence declined over time but nonetheless remained elevated in 1996-2002. Incidence increased in 1996-2002 compared to 1991-1995 for Hodgkin lymphoma (relative risk 2.7, 95%CI 1.0-7.1) and liver cancer (relative risk infinite, one-sided 95%CI 1.1-infinity). Non-AIDS-defining cancers comprised 31.4% of cancers in 1991-1995, versus 58.0% in 1996-2002. For KS and NHL, risk was inversely related to CD4 count, but these associations attenuated after 1996. We conclude that KS and NHL incidence declined markedly in recent years, likely reflecting HAART-related improvements in immunity, while incidence of some non-AIDS-defining cancers increased. These trends have led to a shift in the spectrum of cancer among HIV-infected persons.

Objectives. We examined HIV diagnosis rates and disease progression among men who have sex with men (MSM) according to race/ethnicity and age. Methods. Using data obtained from the national HIV/AIDS surveillance system, we examined trends in HIV diagnosis rates for 2001 through 2004 using Poisson regression. We used a standardized Kaplan–Meier method to determine differences in time of progression from HIV to AIDS and AIDS survival. Results. HIV diagnosis rates were higher for Black and Hispanic than for White MSM, but trends within age groups from 2001 to 2004 did not differ by race/ethnicity. Diagnosis rates increased among MSM aged 13 to 19 years (14% per year), 20 to 24 years (13%), 25 to 29 years, and 40 to 54 years (3%–6%; P≤ .01 for each). The percentage of MSM who did not have AIDS 3 years after HIV diagnosis was lower among Black (66.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]=66.1, 67.4) and Hispanic (68.1%; 95% CI=67.5, 68.8) than among White MSM (74.7%; 95% CI=74.2, 75.1). Three-year survival after AIDS diagnosis was lower for Black than for White or Hispanic MSM. Conclusions. HIV prevention efforts should target young and middle-aged MSM and must offer early diagnosis and treatment for all MSM.

Objective HIV-infected people are at increased risk of cancers of infectious origin. We estimated the burden of cancer attributable to infections among HIV-infected people in the United States in 2008. Design Incidence rates for cancer sites associated with infections were estimated from record linkage between HIV/AIDS registries and cancer registries. Methods Rates were applied to estimates of the population living with diagnosed HIV in the United States in 2008 to obtain the number of incident cancer cases. Site-specific attributable fractions and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from infection prevalence among cancer cases. Infection prevalence data were derived from literature review of case series. Results Of an estimated 6200 incident cancer cases (95% CI 6000-6500), 2500 (95% CI 2400-2700) were attributable to infection (attributable fraction = 40%, 95% CI 39-42). The most important infections were Kaposi sarcoma herpes virus, Epstein-Barr virus, and human papillomavirus, which together were responsible for 2200 new cancer cases (95% CI 2100-2400), mainly Kaposi sarcoma, lymphomas, and ano-genital cancers. The attributable fraction in HIV-infected people was highest in the age group 20-29 years (69%, 95% CI 65-72). MSM were the HIV transmission group with the highest attributable fraction (48%, 95% CI 46-50), due to the high incidence of both Kaposi sarcoma and anal cancer. Conclusion The very high fraction of cancer attributable to infection in HIV-infected people points to special opportunities to prevent these cancers, that is, avoidance, detection, and early treatment of cancer-associated infections, and universal early detection and uninterrupted treatment of HIV infection to avoid immunosuppression.

Purpose To assess the agreement between self-reported and medical record data on HIV status and dates of first positive and last negative HIV tests. Methods Participants were recruited from patients attending Houston health clinics during 2012–2013. Self-reported data were collected using a questionnaire and compared with medical record data. Agreement of HIV status was assessed using kappa statistics and of HIV test dates using concordance correlation coefficient. The extent of difference between self-reported and medical record test dates was determined. Results Agreement between self-reported and medical record data was good on HIV status and date of first positive HIV test, but poor on date of last negative HIV test. About half of participants that self-reported never tested had HIV test results in medical records. Agreement varied by sex, race and/or ethnicity, and medical care facility. For HIV-positive persons, more self-reported first positive HIV test dates preceded medical record dates, with a median difference of 6 months. For HIV-negative persons, more medical record dates of last negative HIV test preceded self-reported dates, with a median difference of 2 months. Conclusions Studies relying on self-reported HIV status other than HIV positive and self-reported date of last negative should consider including information from additional sources to validate the self-reported data.

Objective We sought to determine epidemiological patterns in diagnoses of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and prevalence among females by age, race/ethnicity and transmission category, and essential steps in the continuum of HIV care. Methods Using data from the National HIV Surveillance System, we estimated the number of females aged 13 years or older diagnosed with HIV infection in 2008 through 2012 and living with HIV at the end of 2011 in the United States. We determined percentages of females linked to care, retained in care, and virally suppressed in 18 jurisdictions with complete reporting of CD4 and viral load test results. Results From 2008 to 2012, the estimated rate of HIV diagnoses among females decreased from 9.3 to 6.9 per 100,000 (−7.1% per year; 95% confidence interval [CI], −7.9, −6.3). In 2012, the diagnosis rate was highest among Blacks/African Americans (35.7), followed by Hispanics or Latinos (6.4), and Native Hawaiian Other Pacific Islander (5.1), and lowest among Whites (1.8). Most females diagnosed in 2012 were linked to care within 3 months of diagnosis (82.5%). About one-half (52.4%) of females living with HIV in 2011 received ongoing care in 2011 and 44.3% had a suppressed viral load. Viral suppression was lower among American Indian/Alaska Native (29.7%) and Black/African American (41.6%) compared with White females (46.5%). The percentage in care and with viral suppression was lower among younger compared with older females. Conclusion HIV diagnoses continue to decrease among females; however, disparities exist in HIV burden and viral suppression. Improvements in care and treatment outcomes are needed for all women with particular emphasis on younger women.

Importance Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission risk is primarily dependent on behavior (sexual and injection drug use) and HIV viral load. National goals emphasize maximizing coverage along the HIV care continuum, but the effect on HIV prevention is unknown. Objectives To estimate the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to persons at each of the following 5 HIV care continuum steps: HIV infected but undiagnosed, HIV diagnosed but not retained in medical care, retained in care but not prescribed antiretroviral therapy, prescribed antiretroviral therapy but not virally suppressed, and virally suppressed. Design, Setting, and Participants A multistep, static, deterministic model that combined population denominator data from the National HIV Surveillance System with detailed clinical and behavioral data from the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System and the Medical Monitoring Project to estimate the rate and number of transmissions along the care continuum. This analysis was conducted January 2013 to June 2014. The findings reflect the HIV-infected population in the United States in 2009. Main Outcomes and Measures Estimated rate and number of HIV transmissions. Results Of the estimated 1 148 200 persons living with HIV in 2009, there were 207 600 (18.1%) who were undiagnosed, 519 414 (45.2%) were aware of their infection but not retained in care, 47 453 (4.1%) were retained in care but not prescribed ART, 82 809 (7.2%) were prescribed ART but not virally suppressed, and 290 924 (25.3%) were virally suppressed. Persons who are HIV infected but undiagnosed (18.1% of the total HIV-infected population) and persons who are HIV diagnosed but not retained in medical care (45.2% of the population) were responsible for 91.5% (30.2% and 61.3%, respectively) of the estimated 45 000 HIV transmissions in 2009. Compared with persons who are HIV infected but undiagnosed (6.6 transmissions per 100 person-years), persons who were HIV diagnosed and not retained in medical care were 19.0% (5.3 transmissions per 100 person-years) less likely to transmit HIV, and persons who were virally suppressed were 94.0% (0.4 transmissions per 100 person-years) less likely to transmit HIV. Men, those who acquired HIV via male-to-male sexual contact, and persons 35 to 44 years old were responsible for the most HIV transmissions by sex, HIV acquisition risk category, and age group, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance Sequential steps along the HIV care continuum were associated with reduced HIV transmission rates. Improvements in HIV diagnosis and retention in care, as well as reductions in sexual and drug use risk behavior, primarily for persons undiagnosed and not receiving antiretroviral therapy, would have a substantial effect on HIV transmission in the United States.

Nearly 900 000 people were living with diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the United States at the end of 2010 (1). Among HIV-infected people, cancer risk is increased because of immunosuppression, frequent coinfection with oncogenic viruses, and risk behaviors including smoking (2–4). Since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in 1996, mortality related to advanced immunodeficiency (ie, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome [AIDS]) has declined (5,6), leading to increasing numbers of people living with HIV and an overall aging of the HIV population (7). Three virus-related cancers are considered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to define the onset of AIDS in an HIV-infected person: Kaposi’s sarcoma (KS), non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), and cervical cancer. The incidence of these AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs) has decreased since the introduction of HAART, but the incidence of some non–AIDS defining cancers (NADCs) has increased (8). Due largely to the increasing size and advancing age of the HIV population, the number of NADCs has risen, leading to growth in the overall cancer burden among HIV-infected people (7). The burden of cancer in a population can be described in terms of the number of cases, both overall and attributable to specific exposures such as infections, alcohol, and excess body mass index (9–12). Such estimates allow cancer and its risk factors to be understood in a broad context to inform research and public health planning. Until recently, incomplete national HIV surveillance data prevented estimation of the cancer burden in the HIV-infected population for the entire United States (7). Some cancer cases are expected in the HIV population, because of background risk alone, and these can be estimated using cancer incidence rates from the general population. However, given higher risks, larger numbers of cases would be expected in the HIV population for many cancer types. These excess cancers highlight differences in the cancer burden between HIV-infected people and the general population, providing one framework for considering how cancer control strategies can be tailored to HIV-infected people. In principle, the excess cancer burden represents cases that could be eliminated if one could intervene on all aspects of being HIV-infected, thus reducing cancer risks to those in the general population. Defining optimal strategies for cancer prevention and early detection in this growing, high-risk population with unique public health needs is a rising challenge (13). To provide context for research and public health efforts, we quantified the total and excess cancer burden among HIV-infected people in the United States using population-based data from HIV and cancer registries.

Objective. This study proposes three indicators of, and assesses the disparities and trends in, the risk of HIV infection progression among people living with diagnosed HIV infection in the United States. Methods. Using data reported to national HIV surveillance through June 2012, we calculated the AIDS diagnosis hazard, HIV (including AIDS) death hazard, and AIDS death hazard for people living with diagnosed HIV infection for each calendar year from 1997 to 2010. We also calculated a stratified hazard in 2010 by age, race/ethnicity, mode of transmission, region of residence at diagnosis, and year of diagnosis. Results. The risk of HIV infection progression among people living with diagnosed HIV infection decreased significantly from 1997 to 2010. The risks of progression to AIDS and death in 2010 were higher among African Americans and people of multiple races, males exposed through injection drug use (IDU) or heterosexual contact, females exposed through IDU, people residing in the South at diagnosis, and people diagnosed in 2009 compared with white individuals, men who have sex with men, females with infection attributed to heterosexual contact, those residing in the Northeast, and those diagnosed in previous years, respectively. People aged 15–29 years had the highest AIDS diagnosis hazard in 2010. Conclusion. Continued efforts are needed to ensure early HIV diagnosis as well as initial linkage to and continued engagement in HIV medical care among all people living with HIV. Targeted interventions are needed to improve healthcare and supportive services for those with worse health outcomes.