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Concurrent infection of cattle with bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) and Mycobacterium bovis is considered to be a possible risk factor for onward transmission of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in infected cattle and is known to compromise diagnostic tests. A comparison is made here of M. bovis shedding (i.e. release) characteristics from 12 calves, six experimentally co-infected with BVDV and six infected with M. bovis alone, using simple models of bacterial replication. These statistical and mathematical models account for the intermittent or episodic nature of shedding, the dynamics of within-host bacterial proliferation and the sampling distribution from a given shedding episode. We show that while there are distinct differences among the shedding patterns of calves given the same infecting dose, there is no statistically significant difference between the two groups of calves. Such differences as there are, can be explained solely in terms of the shedding frequency, but with all calves potentially excreting the same amount of bacteria in a given shedding episode post-infection. The model can be thought of as a process of the bacteria becoming established in a number of discrete foci of colonization, rather than as a more generalized infection of the respiratory tract. In this case, the variability in the shedding patterns of the infected calves can be explained solely by differences in the number of foci established and shedding being from individual foci over time. Should maximum exposure on a particular occasion be a critical consideration for cattle-to-cattle transmission of BTB, cattle that shed only intermittently may still make an important contribution to the spread and persistence of the disease.

The choice of a probabilistic model to describe sequence evolution can and should be justified. Underfitting the data through the use of overly simplistic models may miss out on interesting phenomena and lead to incorrect inferences. Overfitting the data with models that are too complex may ascribe biological meaning to statistical artifacts and result in falsely significant findings. We describe a likelihood-based approach for evolutionary model selection. The procedure employs a genetic algorithm (GA) to quickly explore a combinatorially large set of all possible time-reversible Markov models with a fixed number of substitution rates. When applied to stem RNA data subject to well-understood evolutionary forces, the models found by the GA 1) capture the expected overall rate patterns a priori; 2) fit the data better than the best available models based on a priori assumptions, suggesting subtle substitution patterns not previously recognized; 3) cannot be rejected in favor of the general reversible model, implying that the evolution of stem RNA sequences can be explained well with only a few substitution rate parameters; and 4) perform well on simulated data, both in terms of goodness of fit and the ability to estimate evolutionary rates. We also investigate the utility of several distance measures for comparing and contrasting inferred evolutionary models. Using widely available small computer clusters, our approach allows, for the first time, to evaluate the performance of existing RNA evolutionary models by comparing them with a large pool of candidate models and to validate common modeling assumptions. In addition, the new method provides the foundation for rigorous selection and comparison of substitution models for other types of sequence data.

Motivation: Phylogenetic and evolutionary inference can be severely misled if recombination is not accounted for, hence screening for it should be an essential component of nearly every comparative study. The evolution of recombinant sequences can not be properly explained by a single phylogenetic tree, but several phylogenies may be used to correctly model the evolution of non-recombinant fragments., Results: We developed a likelihood-based model selection procedure that uses a genetic algorithm to search multiple sequence alignments for evidence of recombination breakpoints and identify putative recombinant sequences. GARD is an extensible and intuitive method that can be run efficiently in parallel. Extensive simulation studies show that the method nearly always outperforms other available tools, both in terms of power and accuracy and that the use of GARD to screen sequences for recombination ensures good statistical properties for methods aimed at detecting positive selection., Availability: Freely available http://www.datamonkey.org/GARD/

The conventional objective of vaccination programmes is to eliminate infection by reducing the reproduction number of an infectious agent to less than one, which generally requires vaccination of the majority of individuals. In populations of endangered wildlife, the intervention required to deliver such coverage can be undesirable and impractical; however, endangered populations are increasingly threatened by outbreaks of infectious disease for which effective vaccines exist. As an alternative, wildlife epidemiologists could adopt a vaccination strategy that protects a population from the consequences of only the largest outbreaks of disease. Here we provide a successful example of this strategy in the Ethiopian wolf, the world's rarest canid, which persists in small subpopulations threatened by repeated outbreaks of rabies introduced by domestic dogs. On the basis of data from past outbreaks, we propose an approach that controls the spread of disease through habitat corridors between subpopulations and that requires only low vaccination coverage. This approach reduces the extent of rabies outbreaks and should significantly enhance the long-term persistence of the population. Our study shows that vaccination used to enhance metapopulation persistence through elimination of the largest outbreaks of disease requires lower coverage than the conventional objective of reducing the reproduction number of an infectious agent to less than one.

The evolution of homologous sequences affected by recombination or gene conversion cannot be adequately explained by a single phylogenetic tree. Many tree-based methods for sequence analysis, for example, those used for detecting sites evolving nonneutrally, have been shown to fail if such phylogenetic incongruity is ignored. However, it may be possible to propose several phylogenies that can correctly model the evolution of nonrecombinant fragments. We propose a model-based framework that uses a genetic algorithm to search a multiple-sequence alignment for putative recombination break points, quantifies the level of support for their locations, and identifies sequences or clades involved in putative recombination events. The software implementation can be run quickly and efficiently in a distributed computing environment, and various components of the methods can be chosen for computational expediency or statistical rigor. We evaluate the performance of the new method on simulated alignments and on an array of published benchmark data sets. Finally, we demonstrate that prescreening alignments with our method allows one to analyze recombinant sequences for positive selection.

Background: Erectile dysfunction (ED) in diabetes is related to autonomic neuropathy and endothelial dysfunction. We studied the relative importance of these factors in diabetic and non-diabetic men with ED and determined if they predict responses to treatment with sildenafil., Methods: Thirty-three men, aged 35-65 years, with ED (20 diabetic, 13 non-diabetic), 15 of whom were sildenafil responders and 18 non-responders, were compared with 30 age and risk-matched control subjects (15 diabetic, 15 non-diabetic). Subjects with ED completed the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF) questionnaire. Endothelial function was assessed by changes in brachio-radial and femoro-tibial arterial pulse-wave velocity (pulse-wave velocity) during reactive hyperaemia, expressed as percentage endothelium-dependent dilatation. Autonomic function was assessed by heart rate variation during expiration and inspiration (E/I ratio) and during the valsalva manoeuvre., Results: The respective changes in pulse-wave velocity, in the arm and leg [mean (sd)] were 0.71 (6.5)% and 3.5 (6.4)% in the impotent diabetic men, 0.7 (7.6)% and 2.4 (5.9)% in the non-diabetic impotent men, -0.68 (5.7)% and -1.31 (7.2)% in the non-impotent diabetic men and 7.7 (3.7)% and 7.6 (3.4)% in the control subjects. There was a significant interaction between ED and diabetic status such that there was significantly impaired vascular response in the diabetic group (both with and without ED) and in the non-diabetic group with ED compared with the non-diabetic control group (P = 0.01 and P = 0.001 for brachio-radial and femoro-tibial measures, respectively). The E/I ratios of the diabetic men were significantly lower than those of the control subjects [1.17 (0.14) vs. 1.33 (0.16), P < 0.02), but there were no differences in the measures of autonomic neuropathy between the groups with ED and those with normal erectile function. Amongst diabetic men, the initial IIEF scores (maximum score 30, low score indicates more severe ED) were significantly higher in sildenafil-responders than non-responders [16.3 (8.4), vs. 6.8 (7 1), P < 0.02]. The rate of sildenafil response was not significantly affected by the measures of endothelial or autonomic function., Conclusions: ED in both diabetic and non-diabetic men is characterized by marked endothelial dysfunction in comparison with non-diabetic control subjects. Response to sildenafil is not predicted by either endothelial function or autonomic function, but in diabetic men appears to be related to the initial degree of erectile dysfunction.

Several codon-based methods are available for detecting adaptive evolution in protein-coding sequences, but to date none specifically identify sites that are selected differentially in two populations, although such comparisons between populations have been historically useful in identifying the action of natural selection. We have developed two fixed effects maximum likelihood methods: one for identifying codon positions showing selection patterns that persist in a population and another for detecting whether selection is operating differentially on individual codons of a gene sampled from two different populations. Applying these methods to two HIV populations infecting genetically distinct human hosts, we have found that few of the positively selected amino acid sites persist in the population; the other changes are detected only at the tips of the phylogenetic tree and appear deleterious in the long term. Additionally, we have identified seven amino acid sites in protease and reverse transcriptase that are selected differentially in the two samples, demonstrating specific population-level adaptation of HIV to human populations.

An anonymous postal survey was conducted in 2002 to estimate the proportion of farms in Great Britain affected with scrapie and to gather information on the likely risk factors for the occurrence of the disease; the response rate was 53 per cent. The survey showed that 1 per cent of the respondents thought they had had scrapie in their flock in the previous 12 months, and that 12 per cent thought they had had scrapie in the past. The results of the survey were consistent with the results of a similar survey carried out in 1998, and with notification patterns, but in 1998 approximately 3 per cent of farmers reported having had scrapie in the previous 12 months. It is not clear whether the apparent decrease in the prevalence of scrapie is real or whether it may be due to factors such as sampling biases, or to the increasing knowledge of the signs of scrapie shown by the respondents in 2002.

Aim: To use existing data on height and weight of 5 year old children, routinely recorded annually as part of the school entry medical, to monitor trends in obesity over the last 16 years in three South Wales localities., Methods: Body mass index (BMI) and percentage of children over the cut off points for being overweight or obese proposed by the International Obesity Task Force were determined in 46,073 children who had height, weight, and sex recorded each school year (between 1986/87 and 2001/02) on the National Child Health Computer System held at the Swansea NHS Trust., Results: With the exception of one year, the coverage for BMI measurements ranged between 87% and 99%. The accuracy of measurement and data entry was identified as suspect in some cases, and although some data entry errors could be corrected, 14% of BMI measurements were inadmissible. Logistic regression analysis of BMI trends in the remainder showed that the percentage of 5 year olds classified as overweight or obese had increased significantly over the time period and that the rate of change in girls was significantly greater than that in boys., Conclusion: Overweight and obese children have increased in frequency in this population. The Child Health Computer System is potentially a valuable source of information on the health status of populations and should be capable of monitoring trends in obesity. However, accuracy of measurement and data entry need to be improved, and the system, to be useful on a national basis, needs to be amalgamated at a higher level than individual NHS Trusts.

Objective: The development of acute renal failure following cardiac surgery is a rare but devastating complication with high morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to assess the incidence of acute renal failure necessitating continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in patients who required cardiopulmonary bypass, to determine the factors associated with mortality and to evaluate long-term outcome., Methods: Patients who underwent cardiac surgery between October 1997 and 2003 and treated with CRRT were included (n=98). Six patients were then excluded (already in established renal failure pre-operatively) and one patient lost to follow-up. A retrospective analysis was carried out., Results: Overall CRRT was used in 2.9% (92/3172). The mean (SD) age of patients was 68 (10) years. Their mean pre-operative creatinine level and duration of cardiopulmonary bypass were 154 (87)micromol/l and 160 (84)min, respectively. Mean duration from surgery to establishment of CRRT was 50 (42)h. Mean creatinine level prior to hospital discharge was 168 (93)micromol/l. Thirty-day mortality was 42%. Significant risk factors for death were complex procedures (odds ratio=9.9), gastro-intestinal complications (OR=7.2), cross-clamp time over 88min (OR=5.9), re-exploration (OR=4.0) and patients age over 75 years (OR=3.3). Actuarial 1 and 5-year survivals (95% CI) were 53 (43, 63) % and 52 (42, 62) %, respectively. Only 2 (2.2%) patients required long term renal support., Conclusions: Acute renal failure necessitating the use of CRRT is a rare but serious complication post cardiopulmonary bypass. In the long-term, surviving patients are not likely to require further renal support.

The accuracy of somatic cell counts in milk samples was investigated in four studies. First, the counts recorded by one milk buyer in one supply over six months ranged from 105,000 to 401,000 cells/ml with no apparent changes in the volume of milk consigned or the level of mastitis in the herd that would explain this wide range. Secondly, the counts in daily samples from one bulk milk supply for 28 days ranged from 84,000 to 282,000 cells/ml, again with no apparent changes in the performance of the herd to explain the wide range. Thirdly, the replicated counts recorded for one sample by three separate laboratories agreed closely; however, when a sample with a high cell count was interspersed then two of the three laboratories reported high cell counts suggestive of 'carry-over' in excess of the 2 per cent 'allowable' Finally, cell count data from three separate laboratories on samples from 21 cows for 33 days revealed problems with the misidentification of samples on the farm in 1 per cent of the samples, and misidentification and mishandling of 1 to 2.6 per cent of the samples in the laboratories. All three laboratories differentiated samples from cows with subclinical and clinical mastitis, but the mean cell count of the uninfected cows varied between the laboratories with one of them recording statistically significantly higher counts over the period.

There is a well-established association between sheep prion protein (PrP) genotype and the risk of death from scrapie. Certain genotypes are clearly associated with susceptibility to the disease and others to resistance. However, there have been no attempts to quantify the disease risk for all 15 PrP genotypes. Here, datasets of the PrP genotypes of nearly 14 000 British sheep and of more than 1500 confirmed scrapie cases were combined to yield an estimate of scrapie risk (reported cases per annum per million sheep of the genotype, or RCAM) for British sheep. The greatest scrapie risk by far, ranging from 225 to 545 RCAM, was for the VRQ-encoding genotypes ARQ/VRQ, ARH/VRQ and VRQ/VRQ. The next greatest risk (37 RCAM) was for the ARQ/ARQ genotype. The ARR/ARR genotype was the only numerically significant genotype for which no scrapie cases have been reported. The AHQ allele conferred resistance and the risk of scrapie in AHQ/VRQ sheep was very low (0.7 RCAM), although there was a higher and moderate risk for the AHQ homozygote (5 RCAM). The ARH allele appeared to confer susceptibility when encoded with VRQ, but possible resistance when encoded with other alleles. Scrapie risk varied with age: for VRQ/VRQ and ARH/VRQ the risk peaked at 2 years of age; that for ARQ/VRQ peaked at 3 years. There was some evidence that, following the lower risk at 4 and 5 years, a second rise occurred from about 6 years. Comparison with other published data indicated that the scrapie risk of certain PrP genotypes may differ between Great Britain and other countries.

Scrapie is endemic in the sheep flocks of many countries, but good epidemiological information on this disease is scarce. Data on the initial stages of an epidemic are even more rare. We describe the ongoing epidemic of scrapie in Cyprus that has been tracked since it began in the mid-1980s. The early stages of the spread of scrapie from farm to farm, between 1985 and 2000, is analysed with a simple mathematical model. The flock-to-flock basic reproductive number (R0) for the spread of scrapie was estimated at between 1.4 and 1.8. The impact of interventions on the control of the epidemic are discussed from an epidemiological and economic point of view. Early identification of scrapie cases on farms can have a large impact on the number of farms affected. The long period before detection of disease in a flock means that policies based on whole-flock slaughter can be inefficient in preventing spread. Under a range of scenarios, a concentration of resources on early detection and quarantine may be more effective in terms of both the costs and control of the epidemic.

Scrapie is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) of sheep and goats which is thought to be caused by a conformational change of the normal prion protein to its pathological isoform. It has been speculated that this change may be mediated by an interaction between the prion protein and various trace elements, in particular manganese and copper, and that the levels of trace elements in soils may therefore be risk factors for TSEs. This hypothesis was tested by comparing the level of trace elements in the soils on farms with and without scrapie and on those with a higher and lower incidence of the disease. The levels of trace elements were obtained from the UK's National Soil Inventory and deficiencies reported by farmers. The results provide no evidence that trace elements are risk factors for scrapie on farms, and the variations in the levels of trace elements in soils at regional scales do not account for the regional differences in the prevalence of scrapie.

The experimental infection of sheep with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) by the oral route and the likelihood that sheep were fed BSE-infected meat and bone meal has led to extensive speculation as to whether or not sheep are naturally infected with BSE. In response, the UK government has initiated the National Scrapie Plan (NSP), an ambitious pound 120 million per year project to create a BSE- and scrapie-resistant national sheep flock, by selectively breeding for a genotype of sheep believed to be resistant to both diseases. This genotype has recently been shown to be susceptible to BSE by intracerebral (i.c.) inoculation. Should these sheep be sufficiently susceptible to BSE via natural transmission, the NSP might fail. Here we estimate the susceptibility of this genotype to horizontal (sheep-to-sheep) transmission of BSE by comparison with more extensive oral and i.c. exposure data for other sheep genotypes. We show that a previous estimate of the risk of BSE transmission to sheep via the feedborne route remains robust. However, using a mathematical model for the within-flock transmission of BSE, we show that, while the best estimate indicates that the NSP should be successful, current data cannot exclude the failure of the NSP.

Natural exposure to prion disease is likely to occur throughout successive challenges, yet most experiments focus on single large doses of infectious material. We analyze the results from an experiment in which rodents were exposed to multiple doses of feed contaminated with the scrapie agent. We formally define hypotheses for how the doses combine in terms of statistical models. The competing hypotheses are that only the total dose of infectivity is important (cumulative model), doses act independently, or a general alternative that interaction between successive doses occurs (to raise or lower the risk of infection). We provide sample size calculations to distinguish these hypotheses. In the experiment, a fixed total dose has a significantly reduced probability of causing infection if the material is presented as multiple challenges, and as the time between challenges lengthens. Incubation periods are shorter and less variable if all material is consumed on one occasion. We show that the probability of infection is inconsistent with the hypothesis that each dose acts as a cumulative or independent challenge. The incubation periods are inconsistent with the independence hypothesis. Thus, although a trend exists for the risk of infection with prion disease to increase with repeated doses, it does so to a lesser degree than is expected if challenges combine independently or in a cumulative manner.

Phase variation is a mechanism of ON-OFF switching that is widely utilized by bacterial pathogens. There is currently no standardization to how the rate of phase variation is determined experimentally, and traditional methods of mutation rate estimation may not be appropriate to this process. Here, the history of mutation rate estimation is reviewed, describing the existing methods available. A new mathematical model that can be applied to this problem is also presented. This model specifically includes the confounding factors of back-mutation and the influence of fitness differences between the alternate phenotypes. These are central features of phase variation but are rarely addressed, with the result that some previously estimated phase variation rates may have been significantly overestimated. It is shown that, conversely, the model can also be used to investigate fitness differences if mutation rates are approximately known. In addition, stochastic simulations of the model are used to explore the impact of 'jackpot cultures' on the mutation rate estimation. Using the model, the impact of realistic rates and selection on population structure is investigated. In the absence of fitness differences it is predicted that there will be phenotypic stability over many generations. The rate of phenotypic change within a population is likely, therefore, to be principally determined by selection. A greater insight into the population dynamics of mutation rate processes can be gained if populations are monitored over successive time points.

The entire sheep flock in the UK has been threatened with slaughter if BSE is found in farmed sheep, largely on the grounds that an epidemic of BSE in sheep could be harder to contain than was the case for cattle, and that lamb could present a greater risk to consumers than beef. However, identifying BSE in a sheep is not straightforward, because of its similarities to the related disease, scrapie. Here, we review the likelihood that any UK sheep have BSE, how they might have got it, how a case could be identified and what the Government is doing in terms of surveillance and possible control methods.

We describe an age-structured mathematical model of the malaria parasite life cycle that uses clinical observations of peripheral parasitaemia to estimate population dynamics of sequestered parasites, which are hidden from the clinical investigator. First, the model was tested on parasite populations cultured in vitro, and was found to account for approximately 72% of the variation in that sub-population of parasites that would have been sequestered in vivo. Next, the model was applied to patients undergoing antimalarial therapy. Using individual data sets we found that although the model fitted the peripheral parasite curves very well, unique solutions for the fit could not be obtained; therefore, robust estimates of sequestered parasite dynamics remained unavailable. We conclude that even given detailed data on individual parasitaemia, estimates of sequestered numbers may be difficult to obtain. However, if data on individuals undergoing similar therapy are collected at equal time intervals, some of these problems may be overcome by estimating specific parameters over groups of patients. In this manner we estimated sequestered parasite density in a group of patients sampled at identical time points following antimalarial treatment. Using this approach we found significant relationships between changes in parasite density, age structure and temperature that were not apparent from the analysis of peripheral parasitaemia only.

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a major cause of death in the tropics. The 19-kDa subunit of P. falciparum merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP-1(19)), a major blood stage vaccine candidate, is the target of cellular and humoral immune responses in animals and humans. In this phase I trial of MSP-1(19), immunization of nonexposed human volunteers with either of the two allelic forms of recombinant MSP-1(19) induced high levels of antigen-specific Th1 (gamma interferon) and Th2 (interleukin 4 [IL-4] and IL-10) type lymphokines. The adjustment of the antigen dose and number of immunizations regulated the level of specificity of immune responses and Th1/Th2 bias of responses induced by vaccination. Novel conserved and allelic T-cell epitopes which induced cross-strain immune responses were identified. Importantly, responses to many of these novel epitopes were also present in adults exposed to malaria, both in east (Kenya) and west Africa (The Gambia). These data suggest that epitope-specific naturally acquired MSP-1(19) immune responses in endemic populations can be boosted by vaccination.

Because there is a theoretical possibility that the British national sheep flock is infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), we examined the extent of a putative epidemic. An age cohort analysis based on numbers of infected cattle, dose responses of cattle and sheep to BSE, levels of exposure to infected feed, and number of BSE-susceptible sheep in the United Kingdom showed that at the putative epidemic peak in 1990, the number of cases of BSE-infected sheep would have ranged from fewer than 10 to about 1500. The model predicts that fewer than 20 clinical cases of BSE in sheep would be expected in 2001 if maternal transmission occurred at a rate of 10%. Although there are large uncertainties in the parameter estimates, all indications are that current prevalence is low; however, a simple model of flock-to-flock BSE transmission shows that horizontal transmission, if it has occurred, could eventually cause a large epidemic.

In accordance with a policy to eliminate all transmissible spongiform encephalopathies from the food chain, a national untargeted ram breeding programme to eliminate scrapie in the UK is in the final stages of planning. Here we formulate a model of flock-to-flock scrapie transmission, in order to consider the effect of a targeted breeding programme which is in the early stages of consideration. We estimate the size of the susceptible flock population, and discuss implications for potential control programmes. Targeting all rams and ewes in highly susceptible flocks rather than rams in all flocks will eradicate scrapie more quickly, and so is likely to be beneficial as long as suitable penalties or incentives are available to facilitate their identification. A more restricted programme aimed only at highly affected flocks would be much easier to implement and crucially will eradicate scrapie just as quickly. This will leave behind a residue population of susceptible sheep, which could then be gradually removed by a more general breeding programme.

Natural immunity to malaria is characterized by low level CD4 T cell reactivity detected by either lymphoproliferation or IFN-gamma secretion. Here we show a doubling in the detection rate of responders to the carboxyl terminus of circumsporozoite protein (CS) of Plasmodium falciparum by employing three T cell assays simultaneously: rapid IFN-gamma secretion (ex vivo ELISPOT), IFN-gamma secretion after reactivation of memory T cells and expansion in vitro (cultured ELISPOT), and lymphoproliferation. Remarkably, for no individual peptide did a positive response for one T cell effector function correlate with any other. Thus these CS epitopes elicited unique T cell response patterns in malaria-exposed donors. Novel or important epitope responses may therefore be missed if only one T cell assay is employed. A borderline correlation was found between anti-CS Ab levels and proliferative responses, but no correlation was found with ex vivo or cultured IFN-gamma responses. This suggested that the proliferating population, but not the IFN-gamma-secreting cells, contained cells that provide help for Ab production. The data suggest that natural immunity to malaria is a complex function of T cell subgroups with different effector functions and has important implications for future studies of natural T cell immunity.

Within-host mathematical models of Eimeria maxima and Eimeria praecox infections of the chicken are presented and used to investigate the role of host cell availability as a possible determinant of the so-called 'crowding effect'; whereby the fecundity of the parasites decreases as infectious dose increases. Assumptions about the number of available host cells, the average lifespan of these cells and the age structure within the host-cell population were made and mathematical models were constructed and combined with experimental data to test whether these conditions could reproduce the crowding effect in the two species. Experimental data demonstrated that crowding during in vivo infections was apparent following very low infectious doses, but none of the models could adequately reproduce crowding at the same doses while maintaining realistic estimates of the dynamics of the enterocyte pool. However, both the size and lifespan of the enterocyte pool were demonstrated to have substantial effects on the fecundity of the infections, particularly at higher doses. These data indicate that host cell availability cannot be solely responsible for the crowding effect. Alternative factors such as the influence of the primary immune response to the parasite may also be explored using within-host models and other applications of these models are discussed.

A postal survey of British sheep farmers provided information on the proportion of farms that experienced their first case of scrapie in each year between 1962 and 1998. We found no evidence of a large increase in the proportion of scrapie-affected farms prior to, during or following the epidemic of BSE in British cattle. After correcting for between-farm heterogeneity in the probability of acquiring scrapie, we estimated the yearly between-flock force of infection since 1962. The current force of infection is estimated at approximately 0.0045 per farm per year and combined with a simple model of scrapie spread provides an estimate of the average duration of a scrapie outbreak on an individual farm. Considering all farms, the average outbreak lasts for five years, but if only those farms that have cases in animals born on the farm are considered, it lasts 15 years. We use these parameter estimates to compare the proportion of farms with scrapie in time periods of different lengths. In the survey, 2.7% of farms had a case in 1998. The 5.3% of farms reporting having a case between 1993 and 1997 is consistent with the hypothesis that the scrapie force of infection remained constant over this period.

In 1998, a questionnaire was sent to 11,554 British sheep farmers to determine how many believed that scrapie cases had occurred in their flock; 61.4 per cent of them responded anonymously. The results indicated that 14.9 per cent of farmers with more than 30 breeding ewes thought that they had ever experienced scrapie in their flock and 2.7 per cent thought that they had had cases in the past 12 months. A comparison of these results with the number of farmers reporting suspect scrapie cases to MAFF, in accordance with the statutory requirement, suggests that only 13 per cent of farmers who suspect that they may have cases of scrapie are currently reporting them. Scrapie occurred in all regions of the country but there was an apparent regional variation. Larger farms and those with purebred sheep appeared to be at greater risk of having cases. Other differences between affected and unaffected farms included lambing practices and sheep purchasing policy. On the majority of farms the first case occurred in a purchased animal. The survey also revealed a need for the provision of further information about scrapie to farmers.

Responses to an anonymous postal survey concerning scrapie are analysed. Risk factors associated with farms that have had scrapie are identified as size, geographical region, lambing practices and holding of certain breeds. Further analysis of farms that have scrapie only in bought-in animals reveals that such farms tend to breed a smaller proportion of their replacement animals than farms without scrapie. Farms that have had scrapie in home-bred animals have attributes associated with breeding many animals: large numbers of rams bought, few ewes bought, and many animals that are home-bred. The demography of British sheep farms as described by size, breeds, purchasing behaviour, age structure and proportion of animals that are home-bred is summarized. British farms with scrapie reveal certain special features: they have more sheep that are found dead, more elderly ewes and more cases of scab.

Variation in epitopes of infectious pathogens inhibits various effector functions of T lymphocytes through antagonism of the T-cell receptor. However, a more powerful strategy for immune evasion would be to prevent the induction of T-cell responses. We report here mutual 'interference' with the priming of human T-cell responses by a pair of naturally occurring variants of a malaria cytotoxic T-cell epitope. Interference with priming also occurs in vivo for a murine malaria T-cell epitope. Reshaping of the T-cell repertoire by such immune interference during naive T-cell induction may provide a general mechanism for observed patterns of immunodominance and persistence by many polymorphic pathogens.

Observations that growth of Plasmodium falciparum in vitro is inhibited by high temperatures have led to hypotheses that malaria fever may influence the parasite population dynamics, regulating parasite density and synchronizing parasite growth. In order to investigate the fever hypotheses, we have developed an age-structured coupled Markov chain model that describes the parasite erythrocyte cycle and its interaction with the host fever response. We estimated the model parameters using data collected from laboratory parasite cultures that were exposed to febrile or normal temperature. Using the experimental parameter values, quantitative predictions were made of the effect of fever in determining the parasite population dynamics. It was concluded from the model behaviour that, during the primary infection of a non-immune host, a typical episode of fever can effect density-dependent regulation of the parasite population, maintaining cycles of parasitaemia and promoting synchronous parasite growth.

Clinical investigation of malaria is hampered by the lack of a method for estimating the number of parasites that are sequestered in the tissues, for it is these parasites that are thought to be crucial to the pathogenesis of life-threatening complications such as cerebral malaria. We present a method of estimating this hidden population by using clinical observations of peripheral parasitemia combined with an age-structured mathematical model of the parasite erythrocyte cycle. Applying the model to data from 217 Gambian children undergoing treatment for cerebral malaria we conclude that although artemether clears parasitemia more rapidly than quinine, the clearance of sequestered parasites is similar for the two drugs. The estimated sequestered mass was found to be a more direct predictor of fatal outcome than clinically observed parasitemia. This method allows a sequential analysis of sequestered parasite population dynamics in children suffering from cerebral malaria, and the results offer a possible explanation for why artemether provides less advantage than might have been expected over quinine in reducing mortality despite its rapid effect on circulating parasites.

Classical studies of non-immune individuals infected with Plasmodium falciparum reveal that the infection may be regulated for long periods at a relatively stable parasite density, despite the enormous growth potential of a parasite that continually replicates within host erythrocytes. This suggests that the parasite population may be controlled by density-dependent mechanisms, and in theory the most obvious of these is competition between parasites for host erythrocytes. Here we evaluate the role of this mechanism in the regulation of parasitaemia, by modelling the basic population interaction between parasites and erythrocytes in a form that allows all the essential parameters to be estimated from clinical data. Our results show that competition cannot account for the total regulation of P. falciparum, but when combined with immune mechanisms it may play a more important role than is generally supposed. Further analysis of the model indicates that in the long term, parasite replication at low parasite densities can contribute significantly to the high degree of anaemia observed in natural infection, a conclusion which is not obvious from simple clinical observation.