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В магистерской диссертации приведены технические характеристики CLT – панелей. Рассмотрена технология их производства и области использования в строительстве. Выполнен обзор мирового опыта проектирования и строительства зданий различного функционального назначения из CLT-панелей. Произведен анализ существующих типов соединений CLT–панелей между собой и с другими строительными конструкциями. Более подробно рассмотрено соединение SHERPA CLT-connector соединительной системы SHERPA. Произведен обзор инновационных соединений X-ONE, X-PLATE и X-SEAL соединительной системы X-RAD и проанализированы их технические характеристики. Выполнен расчет и произведено графическое моделирование инновационных соединений соединительной системы X-RAD на примере малоэтажного жилого зданий из CLT – панелей., Master 's thesis gives technical characteristics of CLT panels. The technology of their production and the field of use in construction industry has been considered. The world best practices of designing and construction of buildings of different functional purpose from CLT-panels has been reviewed. The existing types of CLT panel joint systems between each other and other structural elements have been analysed. The SHERPA CLT-connector connection of the SHERPA connector system has been reviewed in more detail. The innovative X-ONE, X-PLATE, and X-SEAL connections of the X-RAD components have been reviewed and their specifications have been analysed. Calculation and graphical modelling of innovative connections of the X-RAD components were performed using the example of low-rise residential buildings from CLT panels.

International audience; Ground survey data are an important source of information about the diachronic dynamics of landscape and settlement. Their ability to detect settlements and areas cultivated by ancient societies make them an essential starting point for any land use study. Yet, they rarely alone can document all the facets of land appropriation and development (landownership, political & administrative divisions, etc.). They must be combined with other sources of information (written, planimetric, environmental). The varying spatial and chronological scales of these different sources complicate the multi-disciplinary integration process and the restitution of a unified historical narrative. From a cartographic point of view, the presentation of this information often results to the creation of maps by chronological phases, which leads to frozen representations and do not clearly express the dynamics. However, spatial analysis and statistics tools allow the representation of dynamics itself (grid analyses, mean centers, etc.). To go further, techniques of geovisualization or graphical modelling such as chrono-chorematics can be used to summarize the trajectory of space enhancement over the long term. By representing on the same diagram the major physical constraints of a space (relief, watercourses) and the elements of appropriation by ancient societies (central places, cultivated spaces, territories), it is possible to graphically express the main spatial dynamics observed (polarization, dispersion, migration, etc.). We propose to apply these different techniques (spatial statistics, graphical modelling) to a study area in south-western France, which is the subject of a multidisciplinary approach integrating ground surveys, aerial surveys by drone, geophysics, and analysis of medieval and modern written sources in order to reconstruct the dynamics of land use that have affected this space and the evolution of the relations between ancient societies and their environment.; Les données de prospection au sol constituent fréquemment une source de données importante dans les études portant sur la restitution des dynamiques diachroniques du paysage et du peuplement. Leur capacité à détecter des points d'occupation ainsi que des espaces cultivés par els sociétés anciennes en font un point de départ essentiel de toute étude d'occupation du sol. Pourtant, elles ne peuvent rarement à elles seules documenter toutes les facettes de l'appropriation et de la mise en valeur d'un territoire. Elles doivent êtres croisées avec d'autres sources d'information (écrites, planimétriques, environnementales). Les échelles spatiales et chronologiques variables de ces différentes sources compliquent la démarche d'intégration pluridisciplinaire et la restitution d'un discours historique unifié. Sur le plan cartographique, la présentation de ces informations donne souvent lieu à l'établissement de cartes par phase chronologique qui ont le défaut de figer des situations et n'expriment pas clairement les dynamiques à l'oeuvre. Pourtant, des outils d’analyse et de statistiques spatiales permettent la représentation des dynamiques, du changement et non pas d’états figés de l’occupation du sol. Pour aller plus loin, des techniques de géovisualisation ou de modélisation graphique comme la chrono-chorématique permettent de résumer la trajectoire de mise en valeur d’un espace dans la longue durée. En représentant sur le même schéma les contraintes physiques majeurs d’un espace (relief, cours d’eau), les éléments d’appropriation par les sociétés anciennes (lieux centraux, espaces cultivés), il est possible d’exprimer graphiquement les principales dynamiques spatiales observées (polarisation, dispersion, migration, etc.). Nous proposons d’appliquer ces différentes techniques (statistiques spatiales, modélisation graphique) à une zone d’étude du Sud-Ouest de la France qui fait l’objet depuis 2014 d’une approche pluridisciplinaire intégrant des prospection au sol, des prospections aériennes par drone, de la géophysique, le dépouillement des sources écrites médiévales et modernes dans le but de restituer les dynamiques d’occupation du sol qui ont affecté cet espace et l’évolution des relations entre les sociétés anciennes et leur milieu.

Modern computer systems have changed our way of living fundamentally. They improve our effectiveness by assisting us in our work and daily tasks. However, current systems are limited to a direct input of commands. Furthermore, they are unable to take active decisions on the behalf of the user, mostly because of a lack of information about the user. Cognitive technical systems (CTS) pick up on these deficiencies by recognizing user states and the user���s environment with the help of sensor data. The derived information is collected in a knowledge base and further processed by the application and the dialog management to perform the decision making. In this thesis, new methods addressing sensor-based state recognition in the context of CTS in human-computer interaction are developed and empirically evaluated. The focus is set on large multimodal and temporal multiple classifier systems. Furthermore, the work covers the topics sequential classifiers, handling of partially-available information, and integration of sub-symbolic and symbolic information for complex state recognition. Following approaches are presented in this work: ensemble Gaussian mixture model (EGMM), conditioned hidden Markov model (CHMM), fuzzy conditioned hidden Markov model (FCHMM), hidden Markov model using graph probability densities (HMM-GPD), Markov fusion network (MFN), Kalman filter for classifier fusion and layered classifier architectures. The EGMM extends the classical GMM by the ensemble technique in order to achieve a more robust density estimation. The CHMM and the FCHMM extend the HMM by an additional causal sequence which influences the hidden states. The HMM uses a sequence of discrete causes, whereas the FCHMM uses a sequence of causes with fuzzy memberships. Both approaches can further be utilized to the integrate symbolic information. The HMM-GPD introduces graph probability densities as observations in HMM. MFN and Kalman filter for classifier fusion are probabilistic algorithms for temporal and multimodal late fusion which are robust against sensor failures. Within this thesis, the unidirectional layered architecture (ULA) and the bidirectional layered architecture (BLA) are proposed. Both architectures recognize complex classes based on probabilistic logical rules and the temporal combination of basic patterns. Each layer recognizes patterns based on the class predictions of the underlying layer. Hence, upper layers recognize more complex patterns. The BLA additionally propagates information in the direction of the lower layers. The empirical evaluation of the proposed methods is performed on datasets for affective state and activity recognition, e.g. the Freetalk dataset, AVEC 2011, AVEC 2012, AVEC 2013 and UUlmMAD. The EGMM proved to be more robust and accurate when compared to the conventional GMM approaches. It was shown that the selection of suitable parameters is considerably easier. Further evaluations showed that the multimodal late fusion using the CHMM outperformed the HMM on the Freetalk dataset. The HMM-GPD was studied in the field of activity recognition and showed a good view-invariant performance. The classification was performed on sequences of graphs extracted from partially occluded skeleton models. The MFN and Kalman filter for classifier fusion was studied on the AVEC datasets and achieved good results in comparision to other approaches. Furthermore, it was shown that they outperformed classic point-wise and windowed Fusion approaches. A comprehensive study analyzing the ULA showed that the FCHMM is well-suited to recognize states on different layers given unsegmented sequential data. A dynamic Markov logic network implemented the probabilistic logical rules in the uppermost layer. The thesis further presents a new dataset which was recorded in order to study the BLA. The development of a CTS brings new challenges to the recognition of user���s state and his environment. The presented work identifies important properties in this area and proposes and evaluates methods tailored to this operational area.

Networks with a very large number of nodes appear in many application areas and pose challenges to the traditional Gaussian graphical modelling approaches. In this paper we focus on the estimation of a Gaussian graphical model when the dependence between variables has a block-wise structure. We propose a penalised likelihood estimation of the inverse covariance matrix, also called Graphical LASSO, applied to block averages of observations, and derive its asymptotic properties. Monte Carlo experiments, comparing the properties of our estimator with those of the conventional Graphical LASSO, show that the proposed approach works well in the presence of block-wise dependence structure and is also robust to possible model misspeci cation. We conclude the paper with an empirical study on economic growth and convergence of 1,088 European small regions in the years 1980 to 2012. While requiring a-priori information on the block structure, for example given by the hierarchical structure of data, our approach can be adopted for estimation and prediction using very large panel data sets. Also, it is particularly useful when there is a problem of missing values and outliers or when the focus of the analysis is on out-of-sample prediction.

In the literature using short-run timing restrictions to identify monetary policy shocks in vector-auto-regressions (VAR) there is a debate on whether (i) contemporaneous real activity and prices or (ii) only data typically observed with high frequency should be assumed to be in the information set of the central bank when the interest rate decision is taken. This paper applies graphical modeling theory, a data-based tool, in a small-scale VAR of the US economy to shed light on this issue. Results corroborate the second type of assumption.

In the field of risk and disaster, a great deal of research has been carried out into the concepts and analysis of major disasters. On the basis of this work, we have constructed a formalized ontology of risk and disaster. Its aim is twofold: * To provide a framework to facilitate the comparison between events that could or that have occurred. The aim of this ontology is to deal with all kinds of risks and disasters, whether they are naturally or human induced. * To facilitate the discussion between researchers from different disciplines using a graphical modeling language. This conceptual ontology is currently composed of four sub-systems (structure, dynamics, actors and representation) which allow the description of the facts, (the factual part permits to analyze the dynamics of the event and on what it has a bearing), and the representation of the event by the actors according to their conceptual framework. In this paper, we propose to use the factual part of this ontology to analyze Japan's triple disaster that occurred on March 11, 2011 and during the following days. Many papers, reports, videos and press articles were published, each one providing a wide variety of information. Some focused on the massive earthquake that triggered the devastating tsunami along the eastern coast of the Tohoku region, killing around 16000 people, while others mainly analyzed the nuclear crisis. The aim of the instantiation of the conceptual ontology is to synthesize in visual form all the information from various sources and to produce different kinds of analyses. These analyses can either be global or centered on one aspect of the cascading events, on a specific scale, date, period or a specific element of the observed system. For example, the ontology permits to point out that the difficulty facing the nuclear crisis is also partly due to the destruction of the road network. It also shows that if Japan's 2011 triple disaster occurred mainly in a country, the effects were not only local but also global. So, firstly, we propose to present the conceptual ontology of risk and disaster, secondly, a first instantiation carried out in May 2012, and finally, the advantages of this kind of approach to integrate new recent information about the cascading events that occurred in March 11, 2011, but also the recent problems (cooling system failures and radioactive water leaks) that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant showing that it is still not in stable shut-down.

This paper applies graphical modelling to the S & P 500, Nikkei 225 and FTSE 100 stock market indices to trace the spillover of returns and volatility between these three major world stock market indices before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. We find that the depth of market integration changed significantly between the pre-crisis period and the crisis and post-crisis period. Graphical models of both return and volatility spillovers are presented for each period. We conclude that graphical models are a useful tool in the analysis of multivariate time series where tracing the flow of causality is important.

There is an ongoing debate on how to identify monetary policy shocks in SVAR models. Graphical modelling exploits statistical properties of data for identification and offers a data based tool to shed light on the issue. We conduct a cross-country analysis, considering European Monetary Union (EMU), Japan and US. We obtain some important results. The information set of the monetary authorities, which is essential for the identification of the monetary shock seems to depend on availability of data in terms of higher frequency with respect to the policy instrument (US and Japan). Moreover, there is not yet a widespread consensus on whether or not the European Monetary Union should be considered as a closed economy. Our results indicate that EMU official interest rate depends on the US federal funds rate.

There is an ongoing debate on how to identify monetary policy shocks in SVAR models. Graphical modelling exploits statistical properties of data for identification and offers a data based tool to shed light on the issue. The information set of the monetary authorities, which is essential for the identification of the monetary shock seems to depend on availability of data in terms of higher frequency with respect to the policy instrument.

We apply graphical modelling theory to identify scal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric ap- proaches which achieve identi cation by relying on potentially con- tentious a priori assumptions graphical modelling is a data based tool. Our results are in line with Keynesian theoretical models, being also quantitatively similar to those obtained in the recent SVAR litera- ture à la Blanchard and Perotti (2002), and contrast with neoclassical real business cycle predictions. Stability checks con rm that our nd- ings are not driven by sample selection.

La problématique du transport à la Martinique demeure comme dans bien des cas des pays de la région une question cruciale et déterminante face à des mobilités intérieures de plus en plus sujettes à saturation exacerbées par la configuration territoriale d'une part, mais également des modes d'usage du véhicule de plus en plus systématique au regard des carences dans l'offre de transport. Cette contribution à pour but de mettre en exergue les facteurs de la systémogénèse de l'organisation spatiale et, par la même, des dysfonctionnements constatés du système transport sur l'île, ainsi que, les conséquences en terme d'environnement.The issue of transport in Martinique remains in many cases the countries of the region a decisive and crucial issue facing internal mobility increasingly prone to saturation exacerbated by the territorial configuration on the one hand, but also modes of use of the vehicle more and more systematic in the light of deficiencies in the provision of transport. This contribution aims to highlight the factors of the guiding principles of the space organization, by the same failures of the transport system on the island, and that the consequences in terms of environment.

Due to the fluid nature of the early stages of the design process, it is difficult to obtain deterministic product design evaluations. This is primarily due to the flexibility of the design at this stage, namely that there can be multiple interpretations of a single design concept. However, it is important for designers to understand how these design concepts are likely to fulfil the original specification, thus enabling the designer to select or bias towards solutions with favourable outcomes. One approach is to create a stochastic model of the design domain. This paper tackles the issues of using a product database to induce a Bayesian model that represents the relationships between the design parameters and characteristics. A greedy learning algorithm is presented and illustrated using a simple case study.

Analysing multiple use of space in Cévennes with spatio-temporal graphical models. — To achieve a better understanding of the multiple use of rural space and to be able to discuss it with stakeholders in the management of local territory, this paper proposes a hypothetico-deductive method. It is based on the principles of graphical modelling and incorporates into the same model an elementary structure of the space and an annual calendar for each of the management practices identified in the space. With the graphical superimposition of all these spatio-temporal models, hypotheses can be made on the way in which these practices are organised in space and time. The method is experimented, using the example of management of space in Cévennes., Afin de mieux appréhender le multi-usage de l'espace rural et de pouvoir le discuter avec des acteurs de la gestion du territoire local, une méthode de type hypothético-déductive est proposée. Elle se fonde sur les principes de la modélisation graphique et intègre, en un même modèle, une structure élémentaire de l'espace et un calendrier annuel, pour chacune des pratiques de gestion de l'espace identifiées. La superposition graphique de l'ensemble de ces modèles spatio-temporels conduit à faire des hypothèses sur la manière dont les pratiques s'articulent dans l'espace et dans le temps. Cette méthode est expérimentée sur l'exemple de la gestion de l'espace en Cévennes., Gautier DenisGautier Denis. Le multi-usage de l'espace en Cévennes analysé grâce à des modèles graphiques spatio-temporels. In: L'Espace géographique, tome 29, n°2, 2000. pp. 123-136.

The Traffic Research Centre (TRC) of the University of Groningen in the Netherlands has developed a driving simulator with ‘intelligent’ computer-controlled traffic, consisting at the moment only of saloon cars. The range of possible applications would be greatly enhanced if other traffic participants could be simulated too. This paper presents a study of the possibilities of simulating bicyclists and pedestrians in general, and in the TRC driving simulator in particular. The new traffic participants must be controlled interactively, and move and behave in a natural way. A prototype system has been designed and implemented. The system simulates a bicyclist that is controlled by the user through a graphical interface. Integration of the prototype system in the TRC driving simulator is the subject of future research.

The Traffic Research Centre (TRC) of the University of Groningen in the Netherlands has developed a driving simulator with ‘intelligent’ computer-controlled traffic, consisting at the moment only of saloon cars. The range of possible applications would be greatly enhanced if other traffic participants could be simulated too. This paper presents a study of the possibilities of simulating bicyclists and pedestrians in general, and in the TRC driving simulator in particular. The new traffic participants must be controlled interactively, and move and behave in a natural way. A prototype system has been designed and implemented. The system simulates a bicyclist that is controlled by the user through a graphical interface. Integration of the prototype system in the TRC driving simulator is the subject of future research.

The Traffic Research Centre (TRC) of the University of Groningen in the Netherlands has developed a driving simulator with ‘intelligent’ computer-controlled traffic, consisting at the moment only of saloon cars. The range of possible applications would be greatly enhanced if other traffic participants could be simulated too. This paper presents a study of the possibilities of simulating bicyclists and pedestrians in general, and in the TRC driving simulator in particular. The new traffic participants must be controlled interactively, and move and behave in a natural way. A prototype system has been designed and implemented. The system simulates a bicyclist that is controlled by the user through a graphical interface. Integration of the prototype system in the TRC driving simulator is the subject of future research.