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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of a Brazilian rural credit program, The National Program for Strengthening Family Farming (PRONAF), on small family farming production. Design/methodology/approach The method is based on a quasi-experimental approach (propensity score matching) applied to 4.1m family farmers in Brazil. Findings Results show that farmers accessing PRONAF tended to be positively selected in terms of several observable characteristics, such as land size and agricultural practices. Moreover, PRONAF had positive and differentiated impacts on agricultural production. The impact was larger in the poorest region when compared to the regions characterized by intensive and commercial farming. Research limitations/implications The rural credit information was restricted to one crop year, making impossible to analyze the mid- and long-term impacts of the credit program on agricultural production. Practical implications The study provides some practical implications for policies of rural development. First, rural credit does matter for agricultural production of small family farmers. Nonetheless, since credit programs are large subsidized by the rest of the population, further studies are still needed the aggregate costs and benefits of these schemes. Results also revealed that PRONAF may have contributed to reduce regional inequalities, since the impact was larger in the poorest NE region. Originality/value This study provides a comprehensive analysis of how rural credit has impacted small-farm agricultural production, using large and representative data – the whole population of Brazilian family farmers.

O processo de desindustrialização no Brasil tem sido amplamente discutido na literatura econômica. Contudo, seria o caso de considerarmos toda a indústria como perdedora desse processo de desenvolvimento? E quais seriam os fatores associados às transformações estruturais da indústria brasileira? Este artigo analisa os setores perdedores e ganhadores do processo de desenvolvimento brasileiro entre 1998 e 2014, período marcado por profundas transformações econômicas. O trabalho utiliza uma abordagem bastante desagregada, incluindo dados de 200 classes da indústria de transformação e uma nova estratégia de agrupamento dos setores mais e menos dinâmicos. Os resultados destacam: setores especialmente favorecidos, como o processamento de commodities agrícolas e os setores de bens de consumo (como a fabricação de computadores, aparelhos telefônicos, aparelhos de ar-condicionado, automóveis, aparelhos de televisão, entre outros); e setores especialmente fragilizados, como os segmentos têxteis e da indústria química.

According to the World Economic Forum, the water crisis ranks among the five most dangerous risks to global welfare. In this context, water governance is becoming increasingly vital in various regions, especially as the multiple and competitive uses of water mount increasing pressures on its supply. Despite the evolution of water governance rationales, global water resources are, unfortunately deteriorating. Current water governance models are limited by two intertwined aspects: financial sources and trust. In this context, the objective of this paper is to discuss how blockchain technology can aid in improving water governance, increasing financial transparency, and stakeholders’ trust. Such an improvement could be achieved, for example, with the creation of cryptocurrencies to encourage actions aimed at the conservation of water resources, and also via the adoption of smart contracts.

This paper evaluates the technical efficiency of smallholder dairy farmers assisted by a climate resilience programme in the Brazilian semi-arid region. We use stochastic frontier models applied to...

This paper analyzes the employment and income dynamics of rural families in Brazil's North Region, the main representative of the Brazilian Amazon. We use information from the National Household Sample Survey between 2004 and 2015 to create a typology of families based on the members' occupation in agricultural and non-agricultural activities. We hypothesize that the recent increase in employment and income was strongly associated with non-agricultural activities, reproducing the dynamics observed in other developing countries and Brazil's more developed regions. The results highlight that, differently from the rural exodus observed in the other regions of the country, the number of rural households increased in the North Region, attracted by the expanding non-agricultural occupations. As a result, the importance of earnings from non-agricultural activities and non-labor (pensions, cash transfers, among others) to family income has increased considerably, especially among self-employed family farmers. The final discussion highlights the relevance of non-agricultural activities for public policies to increase income in less developed rural areas. Resumo O artigo analisa a dinâmica do emprego e renda das famílias rurais na Região Norte, segundo uma tipologia com base na ocupação dos membros familiares em atividades agropecuárias e não agropecuárias. As análises baseiam-se em dados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) para o período de 2004 a 2015. A hipótese do trabalho é que as atividades não agropecuárias têm ganhado importância na geração de ocupação e renda para as famílias rurais, reproduzindo o comportamento observado anteriormente em outros países e também nas regiões brasileiras mais desenvolvidas. Os resultados destacam que, ao contrário do êxodo rural observado nas demais regiões do país, o número de famílias rurais cresceu na Região Norte, e esse crescimento foi sustentado pela expansão das atividades não agropecuárias. Com isso, a renda familiar passa a ser composta mais fortemente pelos rendimentos provenientes das fontes não agropecuárias, além da renda proveniente do não trabalho (aposentadorias e pensões, transferências de renda, dentre outras), sobretudo os agricultores familiares por conta própria. A discussão final destaca a importância das atividades não agropecuárias para o direcionamento de políticas públicas de aumento da renda nas áreas rurais menos desenvolvidas da região.

Presentation 20498

We analyze the trade-offs between health and the economy during the period of social distancing in São Paulo, the state hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We use longitudinal data with municipal-level information and check the robustness of our estimates to several sources of bias, including spatial dependence, reverse causality, and time-variant omitted variables. We use exogenous climate shocks as instruments for social distancing since people are more likely to stay home in wetter and colder periods. Our findings suggest that the health benefits of social distancing differ by levels of municipal development and may have vanished if the COVID-19 spread was not controlled in neighboring municipalities. In turn, we did not find evidence that municipalities with tougher social distancing performed worse economically. Our results also highlight that estimates that do not account for endogeneity may largely underestimate the benefits of social distancing on reducing the spread of COVID-19.

Em paralelo às mudanças institucionais do meio rural brasileiro, o setor agropecuário brasileiro passou por profundas transformações produtivas nas últimas décadas. Este artigo avalia a evolução da população de áreas rurais ocupada no setor agrícola com base nos dados dos Censos Demográficos de 1991, 2000 e 2010. Os resultados destacam que houve queda do número de ocupados agrícolas nos anos 1990 e aumento nos anos 2000. A geração do emprego agrícola nos anos 2000 abrangeu boa parte das áreas rurais. Aumentou também a inserção das mulheres no mercado de trabalho agrícola rural, atendendo em grande medida a demanda por mão de obra no setor. Por outro lado, diminuiu significativamente o número de empregadores agrícolas, fenômeno que pode estar associado à maior vulnerabilidade dos pequenos produtores e aumento da concentração no setor. Por fim, é importante destacar que a compreensão da evolução da população agrícola rural deve considerar a dinâmica demográfica local e suas perspectivas.

Purpose This paper aims to evaluate the relation between governance and financial efficiency of credit unions in Brazil. The study shows how poor financial efficiency in credit unions may result from undesirable configurations in executive management and other variables related to governance. Design/methodology/approach The study develops an innovative methodology to classify credit unions according to the level of governance using indicators of representativeness and participation, leadership, management and supervision. This methodology integrates the use of multiple correspondence and cluster analysis. The study then applies stochastic frontier models to analyze how governance affects the indicators of financial efficiency. Findings The results highlight that better governance substantially increases the efficiency of credit unions in terms of a higher level of credit operations per institution. Originality/value The paper uses a pioneering survey applied by the Central Bank to almost the total population of credit unions in Brazil. The results highlight how to operationalize a subjective and broad concept related to cooperative governance to identify the remarkable impacts of good governance practices on the financial efficiency of credit unions.

We analyze the main reasons for the transport mode choice (private vehicle, public transportation, bicycle, walking, and others) among university students in Campinas. Analyses are based on primary data collected from 1,179 students through online and personal interviews in the second semester of 2014. Multiple Correspondence Analysis and Cluster Analysis are jointly used to identify common choice groups. Public transport prevails among low-income users, and the main motive for their choice is the lack of alternatives. Students who can afford higher costs tend to prefer a private vehicle, which is seen as being safer and more comfortable. In turn, the adoption of an active mode of transport remains mainly restricted to a small group of users with positive attitudes towards health and the environment. The study finally discusses the implications of structural constraints, such as infra-structure and public safety, on public policies aimed at a sustainable urban transport system. Resumo Analisamos os principais motivos da adoção dos meios de transporte (privado, público, bicicleta, caminhada e outros) entre estudantes universitários de Campinas. As análises baseiam-se em dados primários coletados de 1.179 estudantes por meio de entrevistas online e pessoais no segundo semestre de 2014. A análise de correspondência múltipla e a análise de cluster são usadas para identificar grupos comuns de escolhas. O transporte público prevalece entre os usuários de baixa renda, e a principal razão para sua escolha é a falta de alternativas. Aqueles que podem financiar custos mais elevados preferem um veículo privado, mais seguro e confortável. Por sua vez, a adoção do transporte ativo permanece restrita a um pequeno grupo de usuários com atitudes positivas em relação à saúde e ao meio ambiente. O estudo finalmente discute as implicações de fatores estruturais, como infraestrutura e segurança pública, em políticas públicas voltadas para um sistema de transporte urbano sustentável. Resumen Analizamos las principales razones de la adopción de los modos de transporte (privado, público, bicicleta, caminata y otros) entre estudiantes universitarios de Campinas. Los análisis se basan en datos primarios recopilados de 1,179 estudiantes a través de entrevistas en línea y personales en la segunda mitad de 2014. El Análisis de Correspondencia Múltiple y Análisis de Cluster son usados para identificar grupos de elección comunes. El transporte público prevalece entre los usuarios de bajos ingresos debido a la falta de alternativas. Los estudiantes que pueden pagar más prefieren un vehículo privado, considerados más seguros y cómodos. La adopción de modos de transporte activos permanece restringida a un pequeño grupo de usuarios con actitudes positivas hacia la salud y el medio ambiente. El estudio finalmente discute las implicaciones de las restricciones estructurales, como la infraestructura y la seguridad pública, sobre las políticas públicas dirigidas a un sistema de transporte urbano sostenible.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar o impacto do acesso ao crédito rural no desempenho econômico dos estabelecimentos agropecuários não familiares no Brasil. Comparou-se, assim, o valor da produção agrícola dos produtores não familiares que acessaram ou não crédito rural, controlando as características do agricultor e do negócio. As análises se basearam nos microdados do Censo Agropecuário de 2006 do IBGE, com um total de 796.422 estabelecimentos. Para considerar as relações de dupla causalidade entre crédito e produção agropecuária, aplicou-se o método em dois estágios. Verificou-se que a obtenção de capital de terceiros impactou positivamente a produção agropecuária. Houve ainda evidências de que a intensidade de tal influência variou conforme a fonte de crédito obtido e entre as diferentes regiões brasileiras.

This paper analyzes how the patterns of socio-economic development affected the migratory flows between municipalities in Brazil. The hypothesis is that the socio-economic dynamics reduced the spatial heterogeneity in 2010 compared to 2000. The empirical strategy is based on clusters of municipal development given by the dimensions of infrastructure, human capital and labor market structure. The results showed a declining inequality between the North and South regions, as well as improvements in most socioeconomic indicators under analysis.

A governança dos recursos hídricos é um desafio multidimensional e de grande complexidade uma vez que envolve diversas escalas, atores e interesses, e que experimentou profundas mudanças nas últimas décadas. No Brasil, o novo arcabouço institucional, regido pela Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos, promoveu uma descentralização dos princípios da gestão integrada, objetivando uma gestão participativa e em múltiplas escalas e setores. Após duas décadas, este processo demonstra que ainda não está totalmentefinalizado, com resultados mistos. Tal desafio tem sido amplificado, uma vez que as mudanças climáticas e a intensificação da ocorrência de eventos climáticos extremos afetarão de forma decisiva a forma como os recursos hídricos precisam ser gerenciados. Este artigo tem por objetivo realizar uma análise crítica da governança dos recursos hídricos da bacia do Rio Jundiaí (Brasil), tendo como ponto focal os desafios de coordenação e escala em sistemas multinível. A partir de um prisma institucional, a análise busca refletir sobre os gargalos e lacunas de governança que ainda persistem nos sistemas de governança dos recursos hídricos e de que forma os atores locais devem enfrentá-los. Water resources governance is a multidimensional and complex challenge since it deals with various scales, actors and interests, and has undergone profound changes in the last decades. In Brazil, the new institutional framework governed by the National Water Resources Policy (1997) promoted a process of decentralization based on the principles of integrated management of water resources aiming at multisectoral, multi-scale and participatory management. After two decades of reform, this process demonstrates that it is not yet fully finalized, with mixed results. This challenge has been amplified as climate change and the intensification of extreme weather events will have a decisive impact on howwater resources need to be managed. This article critically analyzes the governance of water resources in the Jundiai River basin (Brazil) on a local scale, focusing on coordination and scale challenges in multilevel systems. The objective is, from an institutional perspective, to reflect on bottlenecks and gaps in governance that still persist in governance systems for water resources and how local actors must address them.

Climate change is expected to cause several impacts on agriculture. Nonetheless, adaptive strategies and environmental sustainability may affect the ability to cope with these impacts. We analyze how agricultural technologies and the ecosystem diversity represented by the land cover have attenuated the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in the Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Analyses are based on a panel with information for 568 municipalities between 1990 and 2014. We first use multivariate statistical analysis to define six groups of localities according to their levels of agricultural development and land cover. Secondly, based on fixed effect estimates, we analyze the relationship between the dynamics of extreme climate events and agricultural production in each group of localities. Results highlight that both technological and environmental factors could contribute to increases in agricultural production. More importantly, agriculture practiced with high levels of environmental preservation tends to be more resilient to extreme temperature and precipitation events.

Cash transfer programs have been the main social policy in the fight against poverty and inequality in Latin-American countries. This paper analyzes the impacts of the program Mas Familias en Accion on the perception of poverty and subjective wellbeing in Colombia. The analyses are based on data from the Encuesta Nacional de Calidad de Vida between 2008 and 2016. Two empirical strategies were compared to account for the lack of randomness in groups of beneficiary and non-beneficiary families: (i) non-experimental designs (linear and nonlinear models with cross-sectional and pooled data); (ii) quasi-experimental designs (Propensity Score Matching and Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment). The results were robust to the different empirical strategies and emphasized that: (i) transfers increase the perception of food insecurity and subjective poverty; (ii) conditionalities involve positive impacts on different indicators of subjective wellbeing, especially health and education; (iii) general impacts on the perceptions of life are nonsignificant, as a result of divergent impacts on the dimensions of the subjective wellbeing of families.

Purpose The Sertão, located in the Northeastern region of Brazil, is the most populous semi-arid region in the world. The region also faces the highest rates of poverty, food insecurity and climate risks in this country. Basic economic activities, such as extensive livestock and dairy farming, tend to be mainly affected by the increasing temperatures and recurrent droughts taking place in the past decades. This paper aims to analyze farmers’ responses to climatic variability in the Sertão. Design/methodology/approach Analyses are based on farm-level data of the Agricultural Census 2006 and on historical climate data gathered by meteorological stations. The climate impacts and the effectiveness of adaptive strategies are compared between three groups of farms, which discriminate different levels of social and environmental vulnerability. Four production functions are modeled (milk, cattle, goat and sheep) accounting for sample selectivity bias. Findings In response to increasing temperatures, farmers tend to shift their activities mainly to cattle and dairy farming. But the overall productivity tends to reduce with the recurrence of droughts. Decreasing precipitation affects mainly the production of milk of smallholder family farmers and the cattle herd of non-family farmers. Research limitations/implications Analyses do not account for short- and medium-run productive impacts of extreme droughts, which usually have devastating socioeconomic effects in the region. Originality/value Smallholder family farmers are the most vulnerable group who deserve more social and technical intervention, as they lack basic social and technological resources that can greatly improve their productivities and overcome the impacts of decreasing precipitation.

Agricultural land prices may be determined by both productive and speculative factors. Among productive factors, investment in soil conservation in areas destined for agricultural activity is recognized as a positive contributor to land value. No-tillage, or no-till, is a farming system that integrates fundamentals of conservation agriculture and offers a number of advantages in agricultural production. No-tillage systems are associated with a range of positive impacts on land prices, leading this type of soil management system to predominate in Brazil. The object of this study is to verify whether no-tillage systems increase agricultural land prices in Brazil. To this end, data are drawn from the 2006 Agricultural Census, administered by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), including data on soil management systems (no-tillage, minimum tillage, and conventional tillage), as well as state, regional, and national land prices in Brazil. Results indicate that agricultural lands under temporary crop cultivation that are planted using no-tillage systems are of greater value than lands planted under other soil management systems. This increase in value associated with no-tillage may be observed in the Brazilian States with the highest levels of agricultural production, including Parana, Rio Grande do Sul, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goias, and Bahia. These results should constitute an important factor in agricultural producers’ decision-making regarding the adoption practices proposed by conservation agriculture.

Labor productivity is a crucial long-run determinant of real wages. Nonetheless, wage and productivity dynamics often diverge in practice due to a range of economic and institutional factors. This study analyzes the relation between the dynamics of labor productivity and wages in Brazil from 1996 to 2014, and adopts a sectoral perspective to account for divergent trends among economic sectors. Analyses are based on pooled data drawn from the National Accounts and the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios, and hierarchical data models are estimated to assess the impacts of state- and sector-level factors on individuals’ wages. Results indicate that productivity is significantly positively associated with wage levels for all economic sectors, but that institutional factors such as labor formalization and minimum wage exert equally significant impacts, suggesting that wage growth over the 1996-2014 period was as much the result of institutional changes as of transformation of Brazil’s productive structure.

The diffusion of agroforestry systems is among the priority actions to reduce carbon emissions in Brazil. However, the economic impacts of agroforestry are still poorly understood. We evaluate the impacts of the diffusion of agroforestry systems on the cattle herd and the total value of agricultural production in Brazil. We use panel data models with municipal-level information from the Agricultural Censuses 2006 and 2017. We check the robustness of our estimates combining several empirical strategies, including spatial panel data model and instrumental variable estimators. We also consider that agroforestry impacts may differ according to the biome and crops used in the integrated systems. Our results highlight that agroforestry systems' diffusion had positive and relevant impacts on the stocking rate (heads/pasture area). Agroforestry may have also stimulated the shift from cattle raising to other activities with higher gross added value, such as soybean. In fact, the most significant economic impacts of agroforestry occur when the diffusion of agroforestry systems is related to soybean cultivation.

In this study, we analyze the relationship between the development of occupational structure and income inequality in Brazil and the U.S. While both Brazil and the U.S. face high levels of inequality, low socioeconomic development in Brazil notably reduces the proportion of total income that accrues in the bottom two quintiles of the income distribution. In the U.S., inequality is mostly due to unobserved differences within occupations and has grown in large part because of higher earnings among high-skilled workers. Our results highlight that the effects of occupational structure are generally more pronounced at lower levels of economic development. At the higher level of economic development found in the U.S., inequality appears to increase largely due to rising inequality among high-skilled employees, which may be a function of unobserved organizational variables such as firm productivity and market advantage. RESUMO Neste estudo, analisamos a relação entre o desenvolvimento da estrutura ocupacional e a desigualdade de renda no Brasil e nos Estados Unidos. Enquanto os dois países apresentam elevados índices de desigualdade, o baixo desenvolvimento socioeconômico no Brasil reduz sensivelmente a proporção da renda total apropriada pelos quintos inferiores da distribuição de renda. Nos Estados Unidos, a desigualdade é devida principalmente a diferenças intra-ocupacionais e tem crescido, em grande medida, devido aos elevados rendimentos de algumas categorias profissionais mais qualificadas. Nossos resultados destacam que os efeitos da estrutura ocupacional na desigualdade seriam mais pronunciados nos estágios inferiores de desenvolvimento. Nos estágios mais elevados de desenvolvimento, como observado nos Estados Unidos, a desigualdade cresceria principalmente devido aos elevados rendimentos de profissionais mais qualificados, o que seria um resultado de variáveis organizacionais não observáveis, como produtividade da firma e vantagens de mercado.

A inserção ocupacional das pessoas com deficiências e com limitações funcionais menos severas são analisados antes e após a implementação da Lei das Cotas. Os diferenciais são decompostos em (i) fatores produtivos ou socioeconômicos; e (ii) fatores não observáveis, como discriminação e dificuldades sociais. Os fatores não observáveis, que desempenham um papel importante na determinação das diferenças nas taxas de emprego, reduziram substancialmente, especialmente para aqueles com limitações mais severas. Entretanto, enquanto esses trabalhadores continuam obtendo empregos de baixa remuneração, os ocupados com limitações menos severas e mais qualificados atingiram as melhores posições ocupacionais e salários mais elevados. The occupational achievements of people with disabilities and those with less severe functional limitations are analyzed before and after the implementation of employment quotas. The differentials are decomposed into (i) productive or socioeconomic factors; and (ii) unobservable factors such as discrimination and other social constraints. The unobservable difficulties, which play an important role in determining differences in employment rates, reduced substantially, especially for people with more severe limitations. However, while these workers continue to obtain low paid jobs, those most qualified with less severe limitations attained better occupational positions, and hence, higher wages.

Foram feitas manipulções de códigos por meio do programa RStudio para a extração de dados meteorológicos. Esses extração foi feita a partir do INMET (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), que apresenta 265 estações metereológicas no território brasileiro.

Realização de interpolação através do metodo Inverso da Distância Ponderado (IDW) para um banco de dados referentes as estações hidrometeorológicas de séries históricas até 2015, com valores diários disponíveis, obtidos através do portal HIDROWEB da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA).

Presentation ID 15902

Resumo: Este trabalho analisa os padrões de produção de grupos de pequenos produtores do algodão no Brasil e seus impactos sobre as preferências declaradas por novos sistemas de produção. Especificamente, verificam-se as principais características que diferenciam as escolhas pelos sistemas de algodão geneticamente modificado (Bt e RR) e não geneticamente modificado (colorido, orgânico e branco convencional). As análises baseiam-se em dados primários aplicados a grupos de pequenos produtores de algodão nas principais regiões produtoras no Brasil. Os padrões de associação entre as características do produtor e do sistema de produção foram analisados com a Análise de Correspondência Múltipla. A propensão a adotar novos sistemas de produção foi analisada pela Análise Conjunta. Os resultados destacam que, mesmo entre pequenos produtores, há distinções importantes entre os padrões de produção que determinam a escolha pelo tipo de semente. O conhecimento prévio do sistema de cultivo, através da prática agrícola corrente, mostra-se um fator fundamental nas preferências dos produtores por novos sistemas de produção. Conclui-se que a cadeia produtiva, principalmente o papel das cooperativas locais e das redes privadas de apoio à produção e à comercialização, teria um papel decisivo na definição de redes de influência e, consequentemente, na adoção dos sistemas produtivos. Abstract: The paper analyzes the patterns of cotton production for groups of small farmers in Brazil and its impacts on the stated preferences for new systems of production. Specifically, it identifies the main characteristics that differentiate the choices for genetically modified cotton (Bt and RR) and non-genetically modified cotton (colorful, organic and conventional white). Analyses are based on primary data applied to groups of cotton farmers up to 50 hectares in the main producing regions in Brazil. The patterns of association between the characteristics of the farmers and the production systems were analyzed using Multiple Correspondence Analysis. The probability to adopt new systems of production was analyzed using the Conjoint Analysis. Results highlight that even among small farmers there are important distinctions between the patterns of production that determine the choice for new types of seed. The prior knowledge of the farming system, through the current agricultural practice, proved to be a key factor in the stated preferences for new production systems. The paper concludes that the production chain, especially the role of local cooperatives and private networks to support production and marketing, would play a central role in defining networks of influence and the adoption of production systems.

This study analyzes the effectiveness of rural credit policy to increase the adoption of ICLS. Analyzes are based on a survey with 175 farmers in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Our estimates suggest that rural credit has positive and relevant impacts on the adoption of ICLS. In turn, the adoption of these systems may also involve investments in fixed capital and increases in operational costs, which create additional demand for rural credit. Other factors, such as access to extension policy, production scale, ex-ante perceptions, and market infrastructure also explain ICLS adoption. The access to rural credit policy is also determined by dependence on farm income, farmer’s perception of transaction costs, and supply of credit in the municipality. The study finally discusses important implications for the devising of rural credit policies and the diffusion of sustainable production systems in developing countries.

As mudanças climáticas globais podem aumentar a variabilidade associada à duração, à intensidade e ao local de ocorrência de eventos extremos de precipitação. Neste cenário, a gestão dos recursos hídricos tende a se tornar cada vez mais dependente da compreensão dos efeitos locais desses fenômenos. Em 2014, o estado de São Paulo passou por uma das secas mais intensas já registradas, o que afetou a disponibilidade hídrica. Neste contexto, o objetivo principal deste trabalho é investigar se na Bacia do Rio Jundiaí, que contempla um dos principais polos econômicos do estado de São Paulo, tem sido verificada a ocorrência de eventos extremos de precipitação. Para cumprir este objetivo, dados de precipitação correspondente ao período 1961-2014 foram utilizados para calcular o Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Os principais resultados mostram: aumento do volume de precipitação nos últimos anos, com exceção de 2014; concentração de anos extremamente chuvosos entre 2009 e 2012; tendência de aumento da ocorrência de eventos de excesso de precipitação no longo prazo com base nas análises do SPI. A sociedade precisa aprender a conviver com a variabilidade natural do clima, o que inclui políticas ambientais de mitigação e adaptação aos eventos climáticos extremos. Les changements climatiques globaux peuvent augmenter la variabilité associée à la durée, à l'intensité et à l'emplacement des événements de précipitations extrêmes. Dans ce scénario, la gestion des ressources en eau tend à devenir de plus en plus tributaire de la compréhension des effets locaux de ces phénomènes. En 2014, l'État de São Paulo a connu une des sécheresses les plus intenses jamais enregistrées, ce qui a affecté la disponibilité de en eau. Dans ce contexte, l'objectif principal de cet article est d'évaluer comment le bassin de rivière Jundiaí, qui concerne l'un des principaux pôles économiques de l'État de São Paulo, a souffert de l'apparition de précipitations extrêmes. Pour atteindre cet objectif, les données sur les précipitations pour la période 1961-2014 ont été utilisées pour calculer l'indice de précipitations normalisé (SPI). Les principaux résultats montrent : une augmentation du volume de précipitations ces dernières années, à l'exception de 2014; une concentration d'années extrêmement pluvieuses entre 2009 et 2012; une augmentation de la survenue d'événements de précipitations excédentaires à long terme sur la base des analyses SPI. La société doit apprendre à s'adapter à la variabilité naturelle du climat, qui comprend des politiques environnementales d'atténuation et d'adaptation aux phénomènes climatiques extrêmes. Global climate change may increase the variability associated with the duration, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation events. Water resource management tends to be more dependent on the knowledge about the local effects of these phenomena. In 2014, the state of São Paulo experienced one of the most intense droughts ever recorded, which affected water availability. Therefore, the main objective is to evaluate how the Jundiaí River Basin, which contemplates one of the major economic regions of the state of São Paulo, has suffered from the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. To meet this objective, precipitation data for the period 1961-2014 were used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The main results highlights: increase in precipitation volume in the recent years, except for 2014; concentration of extremely rainy years between 2009 and 2012; tendency to increase the occurrence of excess precipitation events in the long term based on SPI analyzes. Based on the SPI analyzes, there is a long-term tendency to increase the occurrence of excessive precipitation events. Society must learn to adapt to natural climate variability, which includes environmental policies for mitigation and adaptation to extreme climate events.