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In the current study activity and latency to explore, as well as the correlation of these traits, were examined in individually marked juvenile Gadus morhua at 7, 10 and 13° C. It was concluded that individual rank order of both traits was maintained across temperature but that the level of change differed between individuals., (© 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)

Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain. We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO 2 effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age-0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under www.oceanchange.uni-bremen.de/;SCREI. Severe reductions in average age-0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification toward the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short-term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long-term safety for cod recruitment success. The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with interindividual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance toward an improved empirical foundation for quantifying climate change impacts on marine fish recruitment, relevant for ecosystem-based assessments of marine systems under climate change., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Intraspecific diversity is central to the management and conservation of exploited species, yet knowledge of how this diversity is distributed and maintained in the genome of many marine species is lacking. Recent advances in genomic analyses allow for genome-wide surveys of intraspecific diversity and offer new opportunities for exploring genomic patterns of divergence. Here, we analysed genome-wide polymorphisms to measure genetic differentiation between an offshore migratory and a nonmigratory population and to define conservation units of Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) in coastal Labrador. A total of 141 individuals, collected from offshore sites and from a coastal site within Gilbert Bay, Labrador, were genotyped using an ~11k single nucleotide polymorphism array. Analyses of population structure revealed strong genetic differentiation between migratory offshore cod and nonmigratory Gilbert Bay cod. Genetic differentiation was elevated for loci within a chromosomal rearrangement found on linkage group 1 (LG1) that coincides with a previously found double inversion associated with migratory and nonmigratory ecotype divergence of cod in the northeast Atlantic. This inverted region includes several genes potentially associated with adaptation to differences in salinity and temperature, as well as influencing migratory behaviour. Our work provides evidence that a chromosomal rearrangement on LG1 is associated with parallel patterns of divergence between migratory and nonmigratory ecotypes on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The present study tested whether the presence of already retained fishes inside baited fish pots acted as a social attraction and affected the entrance probability of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua in a fjord in northern Norway. Video analysis revealed that the probability of an entrance initially increased with the presence of low numbers of fishes inside the pot, but subsequently decreased at a critical number of caught fishes. The critical number was dependent on the size of the G. morhua attempting to enter. This demonstrates that social attraction and repulsion play a role in G. morhua pot fishing and has important implications for the capture efficiency of fisheries executed with pots., (© 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)

Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary is located in Massachusetts Bay off the densely populated northeast coast of the United States; subsequently, the marine inhabitants of the area are exposed to elevated levels of anthropogenic underwater sound, particularly due to commercial shipping. The current study investigated the alteration of estimated effective communication spaces at three spawning locations for populations of the commercially and ecologically important fishes, Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus). Both the ambient sound pressure levels and the estimated effective vocalization radii, estimated through spherical spreading models, fluctuated dramatically during the three-month recording periods. Increases in sound pressure level appeared to be largely driven by large vessel activity, and accordingly exhibited a significant positive correlation with the number of Automatic Identification System tracked vessels at the two of the three sites. The near constant high levels of low frequency sound and consequential reduction in the communication space observed at these recording sites during times of high vocalization activity raises significant concerns that communication between conspecifics may be compromised during critical biological periods. This study takes the first steps in evaluating these animals' communication spaces and alteration of these spaces due to anthropogenic underwater sound.

The present study was designed to investigate potential effects of arachidonic acid (ARA) on the reproductive physiology of female Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.). Two-year old Atlantic cod of both sexes were equally distributed into eight sea cages after completion of their first spawning in May 2005. Four experimental groups were established and fed diets with different levels of ARA corresponding to 0.5, 1, 2 and 4% of total fatty acid. Ovarian growth and development was documented every month. Fatty acid composition was analysed in ovaries, liver and plasma at the beginning of the experiment, one month prior to spawning, and in spent fish, one month after spawning was completed. Plasma concentrations of estradiol-17β, testosterone and vitellogenin, and ovarian gene transcript levels of steroidogenic acute regulatory protein (star), P450aromatase (cyp19a1a) and 20β-hydroxy steroid dehydrogenase (20bhsd/cbr1) were monitored every month in fish fed the experimental diets and related to oocyte stage. Potential fecundity was calculated based on ovarian samples taken one month before onset of spawning. Ovarian and plasma ARA levels were highly correlated to dietary ARA levels. There was a net accumulation of ARA compared to other essential fatty acids in ovarian tissue that was reflected in a decrease in EPA:ARA ratio. Plasma concentrations of vitellogenin, estradiol-17β and testosterone and key gene transcript levels were affected by dietary ARA and stage of maturation. The results show that ARA has a significant influence on the reproductive physiology of female Atlantic cod., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Pin bones represent a major problem for processing and quality of fish products. Development of methods of removal requires better knowledge of the pin bones' attachment to the muscle and structures involved in the breakdown during loosening. In this study, pin bones from cod and salmon were dissected from fish fillets after slaughter or storage on ice for 5 days, and thereafter analysed with molecular methods, which revealed major differences between these species before and after storage. The connective tissue (CT) attaches the pin bone to the muscle in cod, while the pin bones in salmon are embedded in adipose tissue. Collagens, elastin, lectin-binding proteins and glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) are all components of the attachment site, and this differ between salmon and cod, resulting in a CT in cod that is more resistant to enzymatic degradation compared to the CT in salmon. Structural differences are reflected in the composition of transcriptome. Microarray analysis comparing the attachment sites of the pin bones with a reference muscle sample showed limited differences in salmon. In cod, on the other hand, the variances were substantial, and the gene expression profiles suggested difference in myofibre structure, metabolism and cell processes between the pin bone attachment site and the reference muscle. Degradation of the connective tissue occurs closest to the pin bones and not in the neighbouring tissue, which was shown using light microscopy. This study shows that the attachment of the pin bones in cod and salmon is different; therefore, the development of methods for removal should be tailored to each individual species.

The effects of tryptophan (Trp) and phenylalanine (Phe) diet supplementation on the stress and metabolism of the Atlantic cod have been studied. Fish were fed diet supplemented with Trp or Phe or control diet for 1 week. At the end of the feeding trial, fish were subjected to air exposure or heat shock. Following samples of blood, liver and muscle were taken from the fish and were analyzed for stress and metabolic indicators. After an air exposure, plasma cortisol levels in fish fed with Trp and Phe diets were lower compared to the fish fed the control diet. Diets containing both amino acids increased significantly the liver transaminase activities in juvenile cod. During thermal stress, high Trp contents had significant effects on fructose biphosphatase activity though Phe did not. Overall, activities of glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase, pyruvate kinase, and phosphofructokinase increased significantly for both amino acid diets. For the thermal stress, fish had the highest values of those activities for the 3Trp diet. Trp content in the diet had significant effects on the transaminase activity in muscle during air stress compared to fish fed control and Phe diets. Muscle alanine transaminase activity for thermal stress in fish fed any diet was not significantly different from the control. Both Trp and Phe supplementations reduced the stress markers in the cod; hence, they could be used as additives for the stress attenuation. However, they also raised the activity of key enzymes in glycolysis and gluconeogenesis, mainly the Trp diets.

Commercial fishing generally removes large and old individuals from fish stocks, reducing mean age and age diversity among spawners. It is feared that these demographic changes lead to lower and more variable recruitment to the stocks. A key proposed pathway is that juvenation and reduced size distribution causes reduced ranges in spawning period, spawning location, and egg buoyancy; this is proposed to lead to reduced spatial distribution of fish eggs and larvae, more homogeneous ambient environmental conditions within each year-class, and reduced buffering against negative environmental influences. However, few, if any, studies have confirmed a causal link from spawning stock demographic structure through egg and larval distribution to year class strength at recruitment. We here show that high mean age and size in the spawning stock of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) is positively associated with high abundance and wide spatiotemporal distribution of cod eggs. We find, however, no support for the hypothesis that a wide egg distribution leads to higher recruitment or a weaker recruitment-temperature correlation. These results are based on statistical analyses of a spatially resolved data set on cod eggs covering a period (1959-1993) with large changes in biomass and demographic structure of spawners. The analyses also account for significant effects of spawning stock biomass and a liver condition index on egg abundance and distribution. Our results suggest that the buffering effect of a geographically wide distribution of eggs and larvae on fish recruitment may be insignificant compared with other impacts., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Atlantic cod are a commercially important species believed to be threatened by warming seas near their southern, equatorward upper thermal edge of distribution. Limitations to circulatory O 2 transport, in particular cardiac output, and the geographic distribution of functionally different haemoglobin (Hb) genotypes have separately been suggested to play a role in setting thermal tolerance in this species. The present study assessed the thermal sensitivity of O 2 binding in Atlantic cod red blood cells with different Hb genotypes near their upper thermal distribution limit and modelled its consequences for the arterio-venous O 2 saturation difference, Sa-v O 2 , another major determinant of circulatory O 2 supply rate. The results showed statistically indistinguishable red blood cell O 2 binding between the three HbI genotypes in wild-caught Atlantic cod from the Irish Sea (53° N). Red blood cells had an unusually low O 2 affinity, with reduced or even reversed thermal sensitivity between pH 7.4 and 7.9, and 5.0 and 20.0°C. This was paired with strongly pH-dependent affinity and cooperativity of red blood cell O 2 binding (Bohr and Root effects). Modelling of Sa-v O 2  at physiological pH, temperature and O 2 partial pressures revealed a substantial capacity for increases in Sa-v O 2  to meet rising tissue O 2 demands at 5.0 and 12.5°C, but not at 20°C. Furthermore, there was no evidence for an increase of maximal Sa-v O 2  with temperature. It is suggested that Atlantic cod at such high temperatures may solely depend on increases in cardiac output and blood O 2 capacity, or thermal acclimatisation of metabolic rate, for matching circulatory O 2 supply to tissue demand., (© 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.)

We conducted a literature review of reported temperature, salinity, pH, depth and oxygen preferences and thresholds of important marine species found in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Scotian Shelf region. We classified 54 identified fishes and macroinvertebrates as important either because they support a commercial fishery, have threatened or at risk status, or meet one of the following criteria: bycatch, baitfish, invasive, vagrant, important for ecosystem energy transfer, or predators or prey of the above species. The compiled data allow an assessment of species-level impacts including physiological stress and mortality given predictions of future ocean physical and biogeochemical conditions. If an observed, multi-decadal oxygen trend on the central Scotian Shelf continues, a number of species will lose favorable oxygen conditions, experience oxygen-stress, or disappear due to insufficient oxygen in the coming half-century. Projected regional trends and natural variability are both large, and natural variability will act to alternately amplify and dampen anthropogenic changes. When estimates of variability are included with the trend, species encounter unfavourable oxygen conditions decades sooner. Finally, temperature and oxygen thresholds of adult Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) and adult Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) are assessed in the context of a potential future scenario derived from high-resolution ocean models for the central Scotian Shelf., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

How fisheries will be impacted by climate change is far from understood. While some fish populations may be able to escape global warming via range shifts, they cannot escape ocean acidification (OA), an inevitable consequence of the dissolution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in marine waters. How ocean acidification affects population dynamics of commercially important fish species is critical for adapting management practices of exploited fish populations. Ocean acidification has been shown to impair fish larvae's sensory abilities, affect the morphology of otoliths, cause tissue damage and cause behavioural changes. Here, we obtain first experimental mortality estimates for Atlantic cod larvae under OA and incorporate these effects into recruitment models. End-of-century levels of ocean acidification (~1100 μatm according to the IPCC RCP 8.5) resulted in a doubling of daily mortality rates compared to present-day CO2 concentrations during the first 25 days post hatching (dph), a critical phase for population recruitment. These results were consistent under different feeding regimes, stocking densities and in two cod populations (Western Baltic and Barents Sea stock). When mortality data were included into Ricker-type stock-recruitment models, recruitment was reduced to an average of 8 and 24% of current recruitment for the two populations, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of including vulnerable early life stages when addressing effects of climate change on fish stocks., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Stereo-video scuba transects were conducted during daylight hours from June to September 2013 within a proposed marine protected area (MPA) in the Firth of Clyde, west of Scotland. More juvenile Atlantic cod Gadus morhua of fork length (LF ) range 6-11 cm were observed in substrata containing mixed gravel, including maerl, than in boulder-cobble substrata with high algal cover, or sand with low density seagrass. Community composition was significantly different between substratum types. A decrease in G. morhua abundance was observed over the period of data collection. Over time, mean and variance in G. morhua LF increased, indicating multiple recruitment events. Protecting mixed gravel substrata could be a beneficial management measure to support the survival and recruitment of juvenile G. morhua; other substrata might be important at night given their diel migratory behaviour. Stereo-video cameras provide a useful non-destructive fisheries-independent method to monitor species abundance and length measurements., (© 2016 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)

Aquaculture production of cod has decreased from over 20,000 tonnes in 2009 to less than 2,000 tonnes in 2014 and the industry faces many challenges, one of which is high and unpredictably variable mortality rates in the early life stages. Hence, full-cycle farming with hatchery produced juveniles is still considered unprofitable compared to fisheries and on-growing of wild cod. In the present study, potential batch differences in progeny survival of wild-caught, hatchery-spawned Faroe Bank cod (Gadus morhua L.) were investigated at two defined periods during early life history; i) the embryo stage (60 day degrees post fertilisation) and ii) the fry stage (110 days post hatch), post metamorphosis. The fry stage experiment was conducted in three replicates (N = 300 per replicate), and a panel of three polymorphic microsatellite markers was used for parental analysis. Mean survival rate at the embryo stage was 69% (± 20% SD). Survival was positively associated with egg diameter (P < 0.01), explaining 90% of the variation in egg survival rates. The data were too scarce to conclude either way concerning a possible correlation between survival rates between the two periods (P < 0.10). Offspring from three batches (from a total of eight) dominated in the fry stage, contributing over 90% of the progeny, and results were consistent over all three replicate tanks. The skewed batch representation observed may be of relevance to the effective management of selective breeding programmes for cod.

Northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) have been heavily overfished in recent years and have not yet recovered. Passive acoustic technology offers a new approach to identify the spatial location of spawning fish, as well as their seasonal and long term persistence in an area. To date, the lack of a species-specific detector has made searching for Atlantic cod grunts in large amounts of passive acoustic data cumbersome. To address this problem, an automatic grunt detection and recognition algorithm that processes yearlong passive acoustic data recordings was designed. The proposed technique is a two-stage hypothesis testing algorithm that includes detecting and recognizing all grunt-like sounds. Test results demonstrated that the algorithm provided a detection probability of 0.93 for grunts with a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) higher than 10 dB, and a detection probability of 0.8 for grunts with the SNR ranging from 3 to 10 dB. This detector is being used to identify cod in current and historical data from U.S. waters. Its use has significantly reduced the time required to find and validate the presence of cod grunts.

Habitat selection is a complex process, which involves behavioural decisions guided by the multiple needs and constraints faced by individuals. Climate-induced changes in environmental conditions may alter those trade-offs and resulting habitat use patterns. In this study, we investigated the effect of sea temperature on habitat selection and habitat use of acoustically tagged Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) at the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Significant relationships between ocean temperature and habitat selection and use were found. Under favourable sea temperature thresholds (<16 °C), cod selected vegetated habitats, such as eelgrass and macroalgae beds, available in shallow areas. Selection for those habitats was especially high at night, when cod tended to ascend to shallower areas, presumably to feed. Selection and use of those habitats decreased significantly as temperature rose. Under increased sea surface temperature conditions, cod were absent from vegetated shallow habitats, both during the day and night, and selected instead non-vegetated rocky bottoms and sand habitats, available in deeper, colder areas. This study shows the dynamic nature of habitat selection and strongly suggests that cod in this region have to trade off food availability against favourable temperature conditions. Future increases in ocean temperature are expected to further influence the spatial behaviour of marine fish, potentially affecting individual fitness and population dynamics., (© 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.)

The maintenance of ion and pH homeostasis despite changes in ambient temperature is crucial for ectothermic organisms. Thermal sensitivity of Na(+)/K(+) ATPase mRNA expression, protein expression and activity was determined in gills of North Sea cod (NC) and Northeastern Arctic cod (NEAC), acclimated for 6 weeks at 4 and 10 °C and compared to field samples of North Sea cod (sNC), acclimatized to early spring (4 °C) and summer (18 °C) conditions. The same analyses were conducted in gills of the confamiliar whiting, acclimated at 4 and 10 °C. Branchial Na(+)/K(+) ATPase capacities remained uncompensated at functional and protein levels in NC and NEAC at both acclimation temperatures. Na(+)/K(+) ATPase mRNA expression in NEAC acclimated at 10 °C was about twofold higher compared to NC, indicating some population-specific differentiation at this level. Lower Na(+)/K(+) ATPase capacities in gills of warm-acclimatized sNC at common assay temperatures indicate thermal compensation between seasonal extremes, and post-translational modifications contributed to this mitigation at high assay temperature. Together, cod compensates Na(+)/K(+) ATPase capacities on the warm edge of the thermal window and below 4 °C, respectively. In contrast, whiting Na(+)/K(+) ATPase capacities were cold compensated at 4 °C, supported by 1.5-fold higher mRNA and protein expression. Besides, capacities were lower in whiting compared to NC and NEAC at optimum temperature, which may be advantageous in terms of reduced maintenance cost, but at temperatures ≤4 °C, compensation may represent an energy trade-off to maintain homeostasis. The species-specific response of gadid Na(+)/K(+) ATPase indicates certain threshold temperatures beyond which compensation of the pump is elicited, possibly related to the different biogeography of these species.

Fish exhibit a wide range of species-specific blood glucose levels. How this relates to glucose utilization is yet to be fully realized. Here, we assessed glucose transport and metabolism in myocytes isolated from Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and short-horned sculpin (Myoxocephalus scorpius), species with blood glucose levels of 3.7 and 0.57 mmol l(-1), respectively. Glucose metabolism was assessed by the production of (3)H2O from [2-(3)H]glucose. Glucose metabolism was 3.5- to 6-fold higher by myocytes from Atlantic cod than by those from short-horned sculpin at the same level of extracellular glucose. In Atlantic cod myocytes, glucose metabolism displayed what appears to be a saturable component with respect to extracellular glucose, and cytochalasin B inhibited glucose metabolism. These features revealed a facilitated glucose diffusion mechanism that accounts for between 30% and 55% of glucose entry at physiological levels of extracellular glucose. Facilitated glucose diffusion appears to be minimal in myocytes for short-horned sculpin. Glucose entry by simple diffusion occurs in both cell types with the same linear relationship between glucose metabolism and extracellular glucose concentration, presumably due to similarities in membrane composition. Oxygen consumption by myocytes incubated in medium containing physiological levels of extracellular glucose (Atlantic cod 5 mmol l(-1), short-horned sculpin 0.5 mmol l(-1)) was similar in the two species and was not decreased by cytochalasin B, suggesting that these cells have the capability of oxidizing alternative on-board metabolic fuels. Cells produced lactate at low rates but glycogen levels did not change during the incubation period. In cells from both species, glucose utilization assessed by both simple chemical analysis of glucose disappearance from the medium and (3)H2O production was half the rate of lactate production and as such extracellular glucose was not available for oxidative metabolism. Overall, extracellular glucose makes only a minor contribution to ATP production but a sustained glycolysis may be necessary to support Ca(2+) transport mechanisms at either the sarcoplasmic reticulum or the sarcolemmal membrane., (© 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.)

A mechanistic, prey surface-dependent model was expanded to describe the course and rate of gastric evacuation in predatory fishes feeding on crustacean prey with robust exoskeletons. This was accomplished by adding a layer of higher resistance to the digestive processes outside the inner softer parts of a prey cylinder abstraction and splitting up the prey evacuation into two stages: an initial stage where the exoskeleton is cracked and a second where the prey remains are digested and evacuated. The model was parameterized for crustaceans with different levels of armour fed to Atlantic cod Gadus morhua or whiting Merlangius merlangus and recovered from the stomachs at different post-prandial times. The prey species were krill Meganyctiphanes norvegica; shrimps and prawns Crangon crangon, Pandalus borealis, Pandalus montagui and Eualus macilentus; crabs Liocarcinus depurator and Chionoecetes opilio. In accordance with the apparent intraspecific isometric relationship between exoskeleton mass and total body mass, the model described stage duration and rate of evacuation of the crustacean prey independently of meal and prey sizes. The duration of the first stage increased (0-33 h) and the evacuation rate of both stages decreased (by a half) with increasing level of the crustacean armament in terms of chitin and ash. A common, interspecific parameterization of the model within each of the categories krill, shrimp and crab can probably be used if the contents of chitin and ash are similar among prey species per prey category. The model offers a simple way for estimating evacuation rates from stomach content data in order to obtain food consumption rates of wild fishes, provided that information about digestion stage of crustacean prey is available., (© 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and the Tvedestrand fjord on the Norwegian Skagerrak coast studied by Freitas et al. (). Photographs by Øystein Paulsen (left), and Institute of Marine Research, Norway (right). In Focus: Freitas, C., Olsen, E. M., Knutsen, H., Albretsen, J. & Moland, E. (2016) Temperature-associated habitat selection in a cold-water marine fish. Journal of Animal Ecology, 85, 611-613. In the marine environment, species distributions are closely linked to temperature gradients, but how individual behaviour is affected by local temperatures is less well understood. Freitas et al. () tracked Atlantic cod within a Norwegian fjord using electronic acoustic tags. They showed that when surface waters were warm, cod occupied the cold deep non-vegetated habitats. However, when surface waters cooled, fish moved into shallow seagrass and macroalgae beds that were previously out-of-bounds. The study provides a clear example of how thermal regimes determine habitat use over fine spatial and temporal scales, with potential implications for population dynamics under climate warming., (© 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.)

Pershing et al (Science, 13 November 2015, p. 809) concluded that recent warming in the Gulf of Maine contributed to the collapse of Gulf of Maine cod. We argue that this conclusion is based on a flawed analysis of the population dynamics of this cod stock. We believe that understanding the potential role of climate change in the collapse of this stock requires more defensible analyses., (Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Pershing et al (Reports, 13 November, p. 809) concluded that failure to account for temperature in the assessment and management of Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod caused overfishing. We argue that the "extra mortality" calculation driving this conclusion is an artifact. Environmental factors affect all stocks, but attribution of additional mortality to temperature alone by Pershing et al is unsupported by the data., (Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Palmer et al and Swain et al suggest that our "extra mortality" time series is spurious. In response, we show that including temperature-dependent mortality improves abundance estimates and that warming waters reduce growth rates in Gulf of Maine cod. Far from being spurious, temperature effects on this stock are clear, and continuing to ignore them puts the stock in jeopardy., (Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Similar to many marine teleost species, Atlantic cod undergo remarkable physiological changes during the early life stages with concurrent and profound changes in feeding biology and ecology. In contrast to the digestive system, very little is known about the ontogeny and the localization of the centers that control appetite and feed ingestion in the developing brain of fish. We examined the expression patterns of three appetite regulating factors (orexigenic: neuropeptide Y, NPY; prepro-orexin, pOX and anorexigenic: cocaine- and amphetamine-regulated transcript, CART) in discrete brain regions of developing Atlantic cod using chromogenic and double fluorescent in situ hybridization. Differential temporal and spatial expression patterns for each appetite regulator were found from first feeding (4 days post hatch; dph) to juvenile stage (76 dph). Neurons expressing NPY mRNA were detected in the telencephalon (highest expression), diencephalon, and optic tectum from 4 dph onward. CART mRNA expression had a wider distribution along the anterior-posterior brain axis, including both telencephalon and diencephalon from 4 dph. From 46 dph, CART transcripts were also detected in the olfactory bulb, region of the nucleus of medial longitudinal fascicle, optic tectum and midbrain tegmentum. At 4 and 20 dph, pOX mRNA expression was exclusively found in the preoptic region, but extended to the hypothalamus at 46 and 76 dph. Co-expression of both CART and pOX genes were also observed in several hypothalamic neurons throughout larval development. Our results show that both orexigenic and anorexigenic factors are present in the telencephalon, diencephalon and mesencephalon in cod larvae. The telencephalon mostly contains key factors of hunger control (NPY), while the diencephalon, and particularly the hypothalamus may have a more complex role in modulating the multifunctional control of appetite in this species. As the larvae develop, the overall progression in temporal and spatial complexity of NPY, CART and pOX mRNAs expression might be correlated to the maturation of appetite control regulation. These observations suggest that teleost larvae continue to develop the regulatory networks underlying appetite control after onset of exogenous feeding.

To our knowledge, there is no report on microRNA (miRNA) expression and their target analysis in relation to the type of the first feed and its effect on the further growth of fish. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) larvae have better growth and development performance when fed natural zooplankton as a start-feed, as compared with those fed typical aquaculture start-feeds. In our experiment, two groups of Atlantic cod larvae were fed reference feed (zooplankton, mostly copepods, filtered from a seawater pond) v. aquaculture feeds: enriched rotifers (Brachionus sp.) and later brine shrimp (Artemia salina). We examined the miRNA expressions of six defined developmental stages as determined and standardised by body length from first feeding for both diet groups. We found eight miRNA (miR-9, miR-19a, miR-130b, miR-146, miR-181a, miR-192, miR-206 and miR-11240) differentially expressed between the two feeding groups in at least one developmental stage. We verified the next-generation sequencing data using real-time RT-PCR. We found 397 putative targets (mRNA) to the differentially expressed miRNA; eighteen of these mRNA showed differential expression in at least one stage. The patterns of differentially expressed miRNA and their putative target mRNA were mostly inverse, but sometimes also concurrent. The predicted miRNA targets were involved in different pathways, including metabolic, phototransduction and signalling pathways. The results of this study provide new nutrigenomic information on the potential role of miRNA in mediating nutritional effects on growth during the start-feeding period in fish larvae.

In several species genetic differentiation across environmental gradients or between geographically separate populations has been reported to center at "genomic islands of divergence," resulting in heterogeneous differentiation patterns across genomes. Here, genomic regions of elevated divergence were observed on three chromosomes of the highly mobile fish Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) within geographically fine-scaled coastal areas. The "genomic islands" extended at least 5, 9.5, and 13 megabases on linkage groups 2, 7, and 12, respectively, and coincided with large blocks of linkage disequilibrium. For each of these three chromosomes, pairs of segregating, highly divergent alleles were identified, with little or no gene exchange between them. These patterns of recombination and divergence mirror genomic signatures previously described for large polymorphic inversions, which have been shown to repress recombination across extensive chromosomal segments. The lack of genetic exchange permits divergence between noninverted and inverted chromosomes in spite of gene flow. For the rearrangements on linkage groups 2 and 12, allelic frequency shifts between coastal and oceanic environments suggest a role in ecological adaptation, in agreement with recently reported associations between molecular variation within these genomic regions and temperature, oxygen, and salinity levels. Elevated genetic differentiation in these genomic regions has previously been described on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, and we therefore suggest that these polymorphisms are involved in adaptive divergence across the species distributional range., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.)

Marine recreational fishing is a popular outdoor activity. However, knowledge about the magnitude of recreational catches relative to commercial catches in coastal fisheries is generally sparse. Coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is a target species for recreational fishers in the North Atlantic. In Norway, recreational fishers are allowed to use a variety of traps and nets as well as long-line and rod and line when fishing for cod. From 2005 to 2013, 9729 cod (mean size: 40 cm, range: 15-93 cm) were tagged and released in coastal Skagerrak, southeast Norway. Both high-reward (NOK 500) and low-reward tags (NOK 50) were used in this study. Because some harvested fish (even those posting high-reward tags) may go unreported by fishers, reporting rates were estimated from mark-recovery models that incorporate detection parameters in their structure, in addition to survival and mortality estimates. During 2005 to 2013, a total of 1707 tagged cod were recovered and reported by fishers. We estimate the overall annual survival to be 33% (SE 1.5). Recreational rod and line fishing were responsible for 33.7% (SE 2.4) of total mortality, followed by commercial fisheries (15.1% SE 0.8) and recreational fixed gear (6.8% SE 0.4). Natural mortality was 44.4% (SE 2.5) of total mortality. Our findings suggest that recreational fishing-rod and line fishing in particular-is responsible for a substantial part of fishing mortality exerted on coastal cod in southern Norway.

Animal-borne data loggers allow movement, associated behaviours and energy expenditure in fish to be quantified without direct observations. As with any tagging, tags that are attached externally may adversely affect fish behaviour, swimming efficiency and survival. We report on free-swimming wild Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) held in a large mesocosm that exhibited distinctly aberrant rotational swimming (scouring) when externally tagged with accelerometer data loggers. To quantify the phenomenon, the cod were tagged with two sizes of loggers (18 and 6 g; <2% body mass) that measured tri-axial acceleration at 50 Hz. An automated algorithm, based on body angular rotation, was designed to extract the scouring movements from the acceleration signal (98% accuracy). The algorithm also identified the frequency pattern and associated energy expenditure of scouring in relation to tag load (% body weight). The average per cent time spent scouring (5%) was independent of tag load. The vector of the dynamic body acceleration (VeDBA), used as a proxy for energy expenditure, increased with tag load (r(2)=0.51), and suggests that fish with large tags spent more energy when scouring than fish with small tags. The information allowed us to determine potential detrimental effects of an external tag on fish behaviour and how these effects may be mitigated by tag size. The algorithm can potentially identify similar rotational movements associated with spawning, courtship, feeding and parasite-load shedding in the wild. The results infer a more careful interpretation of data derived from external tags and the careful consideration of tag type, drag, buoyancy and placement, as well as animal buoyancy and species., (© 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.)

Background: In marine fish species, where pelagic egg and larvae drift with ocean currents, population structure has been suggested to be maintained by larval retention due to hydrographic structuring and by homing of adult fish to natal areas. Whilst natal homing of adults has been demonstrated for anadromous and coral reef fishes, there are few documented examples of philopatric migration in temperate marine fish species., Results: Here, we demonstrate temporally stable genetic differentiation among spawning populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.), and present genetic and behavioural evidence for larval drift and philopatric migration in the eastern North Sea-Skagerrak-Kattegat area. We show that juvenile cod collected in the eastern Skagerrak and central Kattegat are genetically similar to cod from offshore spawning areas in the eastern North Sea. Genetic assignment of individual 2-5 year old fish indicates that cod residing at, or migrating towards, spawning areas in Kattegat and the North Sea display philopatric behaviours., Conclusions: Together these findings suggest a loop between spawning, larval drift and adult return-migrations to spawning areas and underlines that both oceanographic processes and migratory behaviour in the adult phase may be important for stock separation and integrity in marine temperate fishes such as Atlantic cod.

During a recent marine biological expedition to the Northeast Greenland shelf break (latitudes 74-77 °N), we made the first discovery of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), beaked redfish (Sebastes mentella) and capelin (Mallotus villosus). Our novel observations shift the distribution range of Atlantic cod >1000 km further north in East Greenland waters. In light of climate change, we discuss physical forcing and putative connections between the faunas of the Northeast Greenland shelf and the Barents Sea. We emphasise the importance of using real data in spread scenarios for understudied Arctic seas.

The main object of this study was to evaluate the impact of different levels of vitamin A (VA) and arachidonic acid (ARA) in relation to eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) on mineralization and gene expression in Atlantic cod larvae (Gadus morhua). First-feeding larvae were fed enriched rotifers from start-feeding until 29 days post hatch (dph). Larvae in four tanks were fed one of the following diets: control (EPA/ARA ratio: 15.8, 0.9μg VA g(-1)), control+VA (EPA/ARA ratio: 15.8, 7.8μg VA g(-1)), High ARA (EPA/ARA ratio: 0.9, 1.5μg VA g(-1)) or High ARA+VA (EPA/ARA ratio: 0.9, 12.0μg VA g(-1)). Larvae fed High ARA+VA were shorter at 29dph compared to the other groups and had significantly less mineralized bones when comparing larvae of similar size, showing interaction effects between VA and ARA. Although transcriptomic analysis did not reveal any interaction effects, a higher number of genes were differentially expressed in the high ARA fed larvae compared to control+VA fed larvae. Furthermore, bglap1, bglap2 and col10a1 were all down-regulated in larvae fed High ARA-diets and to a greater extent than larvae fed VA supplemented diet, indicating an additive effect on mineralization. In conclusion, this study showed that the dietary increase in ARA and VA altered the skeletal metabolism during larval development, most likely through signaling pathways specific for each nutrient rather than an interaction. The present study also demonstrates that VA could affect the larval response to ARA, even within the accepted non-toxic/non-deficient range., (Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

The mechanism of essentiality of dietary phospholipid (PL) for larval fish is not clear. The main objective of the present study was to determine if the PL requirement of Atlantic cod larvae was due to any genetic impairment caused by functional immaturity. Cod larvae were sampled at 1, 3, 8, 13, 17, 18, 30, 42 and 60 days post hatch (dph) for transcriptome analysis using a recently developed microarray. The fatty acid profile and gene expression levels of cod larvae at 17 dph were compared after feeding differently enriched rotifers, which contained different DHA levels in PL. No significant differences (p<0.05) were found for the two rotifer diets in the overall gene expression level of cod larvae, their growth and survival, and their DHA levels in total lipid and PL fraction. The fatty acid data suggested that dietary EPA was elongated to DPA by cod larvae, and a threshold DHA level in PL to maintain membrane fluidity and other functions may exist. There appeared to be no major effect of development on the expression of key genes of PL biosynthesis suggesting no genetic constrain in early developmental stages. Our overall data suggested that besides the possible limited de novo PC synthesis ability in the intestine, other metabolic constraints should also be considered, especially the possible low input of bile PC as a result of immature liver. Further studies are needed to elucidate the gene expression level and enzyme activity in the PL biosynthesis pathways for specific tissue or cells., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Several studies have documented fish populations changing in response to long-term warming. Over the past decade, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Maine increased faster than 99% of the global ocean. The warming, which was related to a northward shift in the Gulf Stream and to changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, led to reduced recruitment and increased mortality in the region's Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock. Failure to recognize the impact of warming on cod contributed to overfishing. Recovery of this fishery depends on sound management, but the size of the stock depends on future temperature conditions. The experience in the Gulf of Maine highlights the need to incorporate environmental factors into resource management., (Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Anthropogenic noise impacts behaviour and physiology in many species, but responses could change with repeat exposures. As repeat exposures can vary in regularity, identifying regimes with less impact is important for regulation. We use a 16-day split-brood experiment to compare effects of regular and random acoustic noise (playbacks of recordings of ships), relative to ambient-noise controls, on behaviour, growth and development of larval Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Short-term noise caused startle responses in newly hatched fish, irrespective of rearing noise. Two days of both regular and random noise regimes reduced growth, while regular noise led to faster yolk sac use. After 16 days, growth in all three sound treatments converged, although fish exposed to regular noise had lower body width-length ratios. Larvae with lower body width-length ratios were easier to catch in a predator-avoidance experiment. Our results demonstrate that the timing of acoustic disturbances can impact survival-related measures during development. Much current work focuses on sound levels, but future studies should consider the role of noise regularity and its importance for noise management and mitigation measures., (© 2015 The Authors.)

Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) stocks in the Barents Sea are currently at levels not seen since the 1950s. Causes for the population increase last century, and understanding of whether such large numbers will be maintained in the future, are unclear. To explore this, we digitised and interrogated historical cod catch and diet datasets from the Barents Sea. Seventeen years of catch data and 12 years of prey data spanning 1930-1959 cover unexplored spatial and temporal ranges, and importantly capture the end of a previous warm period, when temperatures were similar to those currently being experienced. This study aimed to evaluate cod catch per unit effort and prey frequency in relation to spatial, temporal and environmental variables. There was substantial spatio-temporal heterogeneity in catches through the time series. The highest catches were generally in the 1930s and 1940s, although at some localities more cod were recorded late in the 1950s. Generalized Additive Models showed that environmental, spatial and temporal variables are all valuable descriptors of cod catches, with the highest occurring from 15-45°E longitude and 73-77°N latitude, at bottom temperatures between 2 and 4°C and at depths between 150 and 250 m. Cod diets were highly variable during the study period, with frequent changes in the relative frequencies of different prey species, particularly Mallotus villosus (capelin). Environmental variables were particularly good at describing the importance of capelin and Clupea harengus (herring) in the diet. These new analyses support existing knowledge about how the ecology of the region is controlled by climatic variability. When viewed in combination with more recent data, these historical relationships will be valuable in forecasting the future of Barents Sea fisheries, and in understanding how environments and ecosystems may respond.

Ocean acidification impacts fish and other marine species through increased seawater PCO2 levels (hypercapnia). Knowledge of the physiological mechanisms mediating effects in various tissues of fish is incomplete. Here we tested the effects of extracellular hypercapnia and acidosis on energy metabolism of gill and liver cells of Atlantic cod. Exposure media mimicked blood conditions in vivo, either during normo- or hypercapnia and at control or acidic extracellular pH (pHe). We determined metabolic rate and energy expenditure for protein biosynthesis, Na(+)/K(+)-ATPase and H(+)-ATPase and considered nutrition status by measurements of metabolic rate and protein biosynthesis in media with and without free amino acids (FAA). Addition of FAA stimulated hepatic but not branchial oxygen consumption. Normo- and hypercapnic acidosis as well as hypercapnia at control pHe depressed metabolic stimulation of hepatocytes. In gill cells, acidosis depressed respiration independent of PCO2 and FAA levels. For both cell types, depressed respiration was not correlated with the same reduction in energy allocated to protein biosynthesis or Na(+)/K(+)-ATPase. Hepatic energy expenditure for protein synthesis and Na(+)/K(+)-ATPase was even elevated at acidic compared to control pHe suggesting increased costs for ion regulation and cellular reorganization. Hypercapnia at control pHe strongly reduced oxygen demand of branchial Na(+)/K(+)-ATPase with a similar trend for H(+)-ATPase. We conclude that extracellular acidosis triggers metabolic depression in gill and metabolically stimulated liver cells. Additionally, hypercapnia itself seems to limit capacities for metabolic usage of amino acids in liver cells while it decreases the use and costs of ion regulatory ATPases in gill cells., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

1. Numerous studies have shown that, at spatial scales of metres to several kilometres, animals balance the trade-off between foraging success and predation mortality by increasing their use of safer but less profitable habitats as predation risk increases. However, it is less clear whether prey respond similarly at the larger spatiotemporal scales of many ecosystems. 2. We determine whether this behaviour is evident in a large marine ecosystem, the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL, 75 000 km(2) ) over a 42-year period. This ecosystem is characterized by a recent increase in the abundance of a large marine predator, the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus Fabricius), by more than an order of magnitude. 3. We compared changes in spatial distribution over the 1971-2012 period between important prey of grey seals (Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua L.; white hake, Urophycis tenuis Mitchill; and thorny skate, Amblyraja radiata Donovan) and non-prey fishes. 4. Distribution was modelled using generalized additive models incorporating spatially variable effects of predation risk, density dependence and water temperature. Distributions of cod, hake and skate were strongly related to risk of predation by seals, with distribution shifting into lower risk areas as predation risk increased. Non-prey species did not show similar changes in habitat use. Spatial variation in fish condition suggests that these low-risk areas are also less profitable for cod and skate in terms of food availability. The effects of density dependence and water temperature were also important in models, but did not account for the changes in habitat use as the risk of predation increased. 5. These results indicate that these fish are able to assess and respond to spatial variation in predation risk at very large spatial scales. They also suggest that non-consumptive 'risk' effects may be an important component of the declines in productivity of seal prey in this ecosystem, and of the indirect effects at lower trophic levels., (© 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.)

1. Exploitation of living marine resources has resulted in major changes to populations of targeted species and functional groups of large-bodied species in the ocean. However, the effects of overfishing and collapse of large top predators on the broad-scale biodiversity of oceanic ecosystems remain largely unexplored. 2. Populations of the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were overfished and several collapsed in the early 1990s across Atlantic Canada, providing a unique opportunity to study potential ecosystem-level effects of the reduction of a dominant predator on fish biodiversity, and to identify how such effects might interact with other environmental factors, such as changes in climate, over time. 3. We combined causal modelling with model selection and multimodel inference to analyse 41 years of fishery-independent survey data (1970-2010) and quantify ecosystem-level effects of overfishing and climate variation on the biodiversity of fishes across a broad area (172 000 km(2) ) of the Scotian Shelf. 4. We found that alpha and beta diversity increased with decreases in cod occurrence; fish communities were less homogeneous and more variable in systems where cod no longer dominated. These effects were most pronounced in the colder north-eastern parts of the Scotian Shelf. 5. Our results provide strong evidence that intensive harvesting (and collapse) of marine apex predators can have large impacts on biodiversity, with far-reaching consequences for ecological stability across an entire ecosystem., (© 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.)

The synaptophysin (SYP) family comprises integral membrane proteins involved in vesicle-trafficking events, but the physiological function of several members has been enigmatic for decades. The presynaptic SYP protein controls neurotransmitter release, while SYP-like 2 (SYPL2) contributes to maintain normal Ca(2+)-signaling in the skeletal muscles. The polymorphic pantophysin (Pan I) of Atlantic cod shows strong genetic divergence between stationary and migratory populations, which seem to be adapted to local environmental conditions. We have investigated the functional involvement of Pan I in the different ecotypes by analyzing the 1) phylogeny, 2) spatio-temporal gene expression, 3) structure-function relationship of the Pan I(A) and I(B) protein variants, and 4) linkage to rhodopsin (rho) recently proposed to be associated with different light sensitivities in Icelandic populations of Atlantic cod. We searched for SYP family genes in phylogenetic key species and identified a single syp-related gene in three invertebrate chordates, while four members, Syp, Sypl1, Sypl2 and synaptoporin (Synpr), were found in tetrapods, Comoran coelacanth and spotted gar. Teleost fish were shown to possess duplicated syp, sypl2 and synpr genes of which the sypl2b paralog is identical to Pan I. The ubiquitously expressed cod Pan I codes for a tetra-spanning membrane protein possessing five amino acid substitutions in the first intravesicular loop, but only minor structural differences were shown between the allelic variants. Despite sizable genomic distance (>2.5 Mb) between Pan I and rho, highly significant linkage disequilibrium was found by genotyping shallow and deep water juvenile settlers predominated by the Pan I(A)-rho(A) and Pan I(B)-rho(B) haplotypes, respectively. However, the predicted rhodopsin protein showed no amino acid changes, while multiple polymorphic sites in the upstream region might affect the gene expression and pigment levels in stationary and migratory cod. Alternatively, other strongly linked genes might be responsible for the sharp settling stratification of juveniles and the different vertical behavior patterns of adult Atlantic cod., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Trophic use by Atlantic cod Gadus morhua juveniles was examined early and late in the shift from pelagic to benthic habitats. Changes in the proportion of pelagic copepods, estimates of benthic prey indicated by isotope mixing models and stable-isotope values between sample periods suggested a gradual shift towards a benthic niche. Values of the trophic proxies, however, changed most markedly in the largest juvenile group, suggesting a more rapid trophic niche shift, and in turn competitive advantage, of larger juveniles., (© 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)

This study tested the hypothesis that the effects of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua ovarian fluid on sperm motility variables are population specific. Sperm from a northern G. morhua population were activated in the presence of ovarian fluid from either northern or southern G. morhua at different concentrations. Ovarian fluid acted as a filter, in some cases reducing sperm swimming performance compared with seawater. Fluid from females foreign in population (southern) to the males (northern) had a greater inhibiting effect than those from the native population. Follow-up analysis indicated that the ovarian fluids had lower Ca(2+) concentration in northern than southern G. morhua, which could be the causative mechanism. If widespread, such cryptic female choice could reduce the incidence of intraspecific hybridization among diverged populations and contribute to reproductive isolation., (© 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.)

Parasites, being an integral part of every ecosystem and trophically transmitted along the food webs, can provide detailed insights into the structure of food webs and can close the information gap between short-term stomach content analyses and long-term fish otolith analyses. They are useful for tracking ontogenetic shifts in the host's diet, the occurrence of specific organisms or migratory behaviour of their hosts, even in inaccessible environments. In the present study, stomach content analyses and parasitological examinations were performed on 70 Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, one of the most important high-level predators of small fish in the North Atlantic, caught during one research vessel cruise from West and East Greenlandic waters. Analyses revealed significant differences in fish size with higher values for East Greenland (average total length (TL) of 50.5 cm) compared to West Greenland (average TL of 33.3 cm). Clear differences were also present in prey and parasite composition. Crustacea was the main food source for all fish (IRI = 10082.70), while the importance of teleosts increased with fish size. With a prevalence of 85 % in West Greenland and 100 % in East Greenland, Nematoda were the most abundant parasite group. The results indicate an ontogenetic shift in the diet, which are discussed in the context of the common distribution theory, stock dynamics and migratory behaviour.

I describe how stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), a method for stochastic optimization that evolved from the work of Hamilton and Jacobi on variational problems, allows us to connect the physiological state of organisms, the environment in which they live, and how evolution by natural selection acts on trade-offs that all organisms face. I first derive the two canonical equations of SDP. These are valuable because although they apply to no system in particular, they share commonalities with many systems (as do frictionless springs). After that, I show how we used SDP in insect behavioral ecology. I describe the puzzles that needed to be solved, the SDP equations we used to solve the puzzles, and the experiments that we used to test the predictions of the models. I then briefly describe two other applications of SDP in biology: first, understanding the developmental pathways followed by steelhead trout in California and second skipped spawning by Norwegian cod. In both cases, modeling and empirical work were closely connected. I close with lessons learned and advice for the young mathematical biologists.

Complex natural systems with eroded resilience, such as populations, ecosystems and socio-ecological systems, respond to small perturbations with abrupt, discontinuous state shifts, or critical transitions. Theory of critical transitions suggests that such systems exhibit fold bifurcations featuring folded response curves, tipping points and alternate attractors. However, there is little empirical evidence of fold bifurcations occurring in actual complex natural systems impacted by multiple stressors. Moreover, resilience of complex systems to change currently lacks clear operational measures with generic application. Here, we provide empirical evidence for the occurrence of a fold bifurcation in an exploited fish population and introduce a generic measure of ecological resilience based on the observed fold bifurcation attributes. We analyse the multivariate development of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua), which is currently the world's largest cod stock, over six decades (1949-2009), and identify a population state shift in 1981. By plotting a multivariate population index against a multivariate stressor index, the shift mechanism was revealed suggesting that the observed population shift was a nonlinear response to the combined effects of overfishing and climate change. Annual resilience values were estimated based on the position of each year in relation to the fitted attractors and assumed tipping points of the fold bifurcation. By interpolating the annual resilience values, a folded stability landscape was fit, which was shaped as predicted by theory. The resilience assessment suggested that the population may be close to another tipping point. This study illustrates how a multivariate analysis, supported by theory of critical transitions and accompanied by a quantitative resilience assessment, can clarify shift mechanisms in data-rich complex natural systems., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Harvesting may be a potent driver of demographic change and contemporary evolution, which both may have great impacts on animal populations. Research has focused on changes in phenotypic traits that are easily quantifiable and for which time series exist, such as size, age, sex, or gonad size, whereas potential changes in behavioural traits have been under-studied. Here, we analyse potential drivers of long-term changes in a behavioural trait for the Northeast Arctic stock of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, namely choice of spawning location. For 104 years (1866-1969), commercial catches were recorded annually and reported by county along the Norwegian coast. During this time period, spawning ground distribution has fluctuated with a trend towards more northerly spawning. Spawning location is analysed against a suite of explanatory factors including climate, fishing pressure, density dependence, and demography. We find that demography (age or age at maturation) had the highest explanatory power for variation in spawning location, while climate had a limited effect below statistical significance. As to potential mechanisms, some effects of climate may act through demography, and explanatory variables for demography may also have absorbed direct evolutionary change in migration distance for which proxies were unavailable. Despite these caveats, we argue that fishing mortality, either through demographic or evolutionary change, has served as an effective driver for changing spawning locations in cod, and that additional explanatory factors related to climate add no significant information., (© 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Diagnosing the processes that threaten species persistence is critical for recovery planning and risk forecasting. Dominant threats are typically inferred by experts on the basis of a patchwork of informal methods. Transparent, quantitative diagnostic tools would contribute much-needed consistency, objectivity, and rigor to the process of diagnosing anthropogenic threats. Long-term census records, available for an increasingly large and diverse set of taxa, may exhibit characteristic signatures of specific threatening processes and thereby provide information for threat diagnosis. We developed a flexible Bayesian framework for diagnosing threats on the basis of long-term census records and diverse ancillary sources of information. We tested this framework with simulated data from artificial populations subjected to varying degrees of exploitation and habitat loss and several real-world abundance time series for which threatening processes are relatively well understood: bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) (exploitation) and Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) and Eurasian Skylark (Alauda arvensis) (habitat loss). Our method correctly identified the process driving population decline for over 90% of time series simulated under moderate to severe threat scenarios. Successful identification of threats approached 100% for severe exploitation and habitat loss scenarios. Our method identified threats less successfully when threatening processes were weak and when populations were simultaneously affected by multiple threats. Our method selected the presumed true threat model for all real-world case studies, although results were somewhat ambiguous in the case of the Eurasian Skylark. In the latter case, incorporation of an ancillary source of information (records of land-use change) increased the weight assigned to the presumed true model from 70% to 92%, illustrating the value of the proposed framework in bringing diverse sources of information into a common rigorous framework. Ultimately, our framework may greatly assist conservation organizations in documenting threatening processes and planning species recovery., (© 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.)

The difference between maximum metabolic rate and standard metabolic rate is referred to as aerobic scope, and because it constrains performance it is suggested to constitute a key limiting process prescribing how fish may cope with or adapt to climate warming. We use an evolutionary bioenergetics model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to predict optimal life histories and behaviours at different temperatures. The model assumes common trade-offs and predicts that optimal temperatures for growth and fitness lie below that for aerobic scope; aerobic scope is thus a poor predictor of fitness at high temperatures. Initially, warming expands aerobic scope, allowing for faster growth and increased reproduction. Beyond the optimal temperature for fitness, increased metabolic requirements intensify foraging and reduce survival; oxygen budgeting conflicts thus constrain successful completion of the life cycle. The model illustrates how physiological adaptations are part of a suite of traits that have coevolved., (© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.)