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Objective: Children identified with stage 1 type 1 diabetes are at high risk for progressing to stage 3 (clinical) diabetes and require accurate monitoring. Our aim was to establish continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) metrics that could predict imminent progression to diabetes.Research Design and Methods: In the Autoimmunity Screening for Kids study, 91 children who were persistently islet autoantibody positive (median age 11.5 years; 48% non-Hispanic White; 57% female) with a baseline CGM were followed for development of diabetes for a median of 6 (range 0.2-34) months. Of these, 16 (18%) progressed to clinical diabetes in a median of 4.5 (range 0.4-29) months.Results: Compared with children who did not progress to clinical diabetes (nonprogressors), those who did (progressors) had significantly higher average sensor glucose levels (119 vs. 105 mg/dL, P < 0.001) and increased glycemic variability (SD 27 vs. 16, coefficient of variation, 21 vs. 15, mean of daily differences 24 vs. 16, and mean amplitude of glycemic excursions 43 vs. 26, all P < 0.001). For progressors, 21% of the time was spent with glucose levels >140 mg/dL (TA140) and 8% of time >160 mg/dL, compared with 3% and 1%, respectively, for nonprogressors. In survival analyses, the risk of progression to diabetes in 1 year was 80% in those with TA140 >10%; in contrast, it was only 5% in the other participants. Performance of prediction by receiver operating curve analyses showed area under the curve of ≥0.89 for both individual and combined CGM metric models.Conclusions: TA140 >10% is associated with a high risk of progression to clinical diabetes within the next year in autoantibody-positive children. CGM should be included in the ongoing monitoring of high-risk children and could be used as potential entry criterion for prevention trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Participants' study satisfaction is important for both compliance with study protocols and retention, but research on parent study satisfaction is rare. This study sought to identify factors associated with parent study satisfaction in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, a longitudinal, multinational (US, Finland, Germany, Sweden) study of children at risk for type 1 diabetes. The role of staff consistency to parent study satisfaction was a particular focus. Methods: Parent study satisfaction was measured by questionnaire at child-age 15 months (5579 mothers, 4942 fathers) and child-age four years (4010 mothers, 3411 fathers). Multiple linear regression analyses were used to identify sociodemographic factors, parental characteristics, and study variables associated with parent study satisfaction at both time points. Results: Parent study satisfaction was highest in Sweden and the US, compared to Finland. Parents who had an accurate perception of their child's type 1 diabetes risk and those who believed they can do something to prevent type 1 diabetes were more satisfied. More educated parents and those with higher depression scores had lower study satisfaction scores. After adjusting for these factors, greater study staff change frequency was associated with lower study satisfaction in European parents (mothers at child-age 15 months: − 0.30,95% Cl − 0.36, − 0.24, p < 0.001; mothers at child-age four years: -0.41, 95% Cl − 0.53, − 0.29, p < 0.001; fathers at child-age 15 months: -0.28, 95% Cl − 0.34, − 0.21, p < 0.001; fathers at child-age four years: -0.35, 95% Cl − 0.48, − 0.21, p < 0.001). Staff consistency was not associated with parent study satisfaction in the US. However, the number of staff changes was markedly higher in the US compared to Europe. Conclusions: Sociodemographic factors, parental characteristics, and study-related variables were all related to parent study satisfaction. Those that are potentially modifiable are of particular interest as possible targets of future efforts to improve parent study satisfaction. Three such factors were identified: parent accuracy about the child's type 1 diabetes risk, parent beliefs that something can be done to reduce the child's risk, and study staff consistency. However, staff consistency was important only for European parents. Trial registration: NCT00279318. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To use islet autoantibody titers to improve the estimation of future type 1 diabetes risk in children.Research Design and Methods: Prospective cohort studies in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S. followed 24,662 children at increased genetic or familial risk to develop islet autoimmunity and diabetes. For 1,604 children with confirmed positivity, titers of autoantibodies against insulin (IAA), GAD antibodies (GADA), and insulinoma-associated antigen 2 (IA-2A) were harmonized for diabetes risk analyses.Results: Survival analysis from time of confirmed positivity revealed markedly different 5-year diabetes risks associated with IAA (n = 909), GADA (n = 1,076), and IA-2A (n = 714), when stratified by quartiles of titer, ranging from 19% (GADA 1st quartile) to 60% (IA-2A 4th quartile). The minimum titer associated with a maximum difference in 5-year risk differed for each autoantibody, corresponding to the 58.6th, 52.4th, and 10.2nd percentile of children specifically positive for each of IAA, GADA, and IA-2A, respectively. Using these autoantibody type-specific titer thresholds in the 1,481 children with all autoantibodies tested, the 5-year risk conferred by single (n = 954) and multiple (n = 527) autoantibodies could be stratified from 6 to 75% (P < 0.0001). The thresholds effectively identified children with a ≥50% 5-year risk when considering age-specific autoantibody screening (57-65% positive predictive value and 56-74% sensitivity for ages 1-5 years). Multivariable analysis confirmed the significance of associations between the three autoantibody titers and diabetes risk, informing a childhood risk surveillance strategy.Conclusions: This study defined islet autoantibody type-specific titer thresholds that significantly improved type 1 diabetes risk stratification in children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant progress has been made in elucidating genetic risk factors influencing Type 1 diabetes (T1D); however, features other than genetic variants that initiate and/or accelerate islet autoimmunity that lead to the development of clinical T1D remain largely unknown. We hypothesized that genetic and environmental risk factors can both contribute to T1D through dynamic alterations of molecular interactions in physiologic networks. To test this hypothesis, we utilized longitudinal blood transcriptomic profiles in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study to generate gene co-expression networks. In network modules that contain immune response genes associated with T1D, we observed highly dynamic differences in module connectivity in the 600 days (~ 2 years) preceding clinical diagnosis of T1D. Our results suggest that gene co-expression is highly plastic and that connectivity differences in T1D-associated immune system genes influence the timing and development of clinical disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To combine prospective cohort studies, by including HLA harmonization, and estimate risk of islet autoimmunity and progression to clinical diabetes.Research Design and Methods: For prospective cohorts in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S., 24,662 children at increased genetic risk for development of islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes have been followed. Following harmonization, the outcomes were analyzed in 16,709 infants-toddlers enrolled by age 2.5 years.Results: In the infant-toddler cohort, 1,413 (8.5%) developed at least one autoantibody confirmed at two or more consecutive visits (seroconversion), 865 (5%) developed multiple autoantibodies, and 655 (4%) progressed to diabetes. The 15-year cumulative incidence of diabetes varied in children with one, two, or three autoantibodies at seroconversion: 45% (95% CI 40-52), 85% (78-90), and 92% (85-97), respectively. Among those with a single autoantibody, status 2 years after seroconversion predicted diabetes risk: 12% (10-25) if reverting to autoantibody negative, 30% (20-40) if retaining a single autoantibody, and 82% (80-95) if developing multiple autoantibodies. HLA-DR-DQ affected the risk of confirmed seroconversion and progression to diabetes in children with stable single-autoantibody status. Their 15-year diabetes incidence for higher- versus lower-risk genotypes was 40% (28-50) vs. 12% (5-38). The rate of progression to diabetes was inversely related to age at development of multiple autoantibodies, ranging from 20% per year to 6% per year in children developing multipositivity in ≤2 years or >7.4 years, respectively.Conclusions: The number of islet autoantibodies at seroconversion reliably predicts 15-year type 1 diabetes risk. In children retaining a single autoantibody, HLA-DR-DQ genotypes can further refine risk of progression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Objective: The first-appearing β-cell autoantibody has been shown to influence risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D). Here, we assessed the risk of autoantibody spreading to the second-appearing autoantibody and further progression to clinical disease in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study.Research Design and Methods: Eligible children with increased HLA-DR-DQ genetic risk for T1D were followed quarterly from age 3 months up to 15 years for development of a single first-appearing autoantibody (GAD antibody [GADA], insulin autoantibody [IAA], or insulinoma antigen-2 autoantibody [IA-2A]) and subsequent development of a single second-appearing autoantibody and progression to T1D. Autoantibody positivity was defined as positivity for a specific autoantibody at two consecutive visits confirmed in two laboratories. Zinc transporter 8 autoantibody (ZnT8A) was measured in children who developed another autoantibody.Results: There were 608 children who developed a single first-appearing autoantibody (IAA, n = 282, or GADA, n = 326) with a median follow-up of 12.5 years from birth. The risk of a second-appearing autoantibody was independent of GADA versus IAA as a first-appearing autoantibody (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.12; 95% CI 0.88-1.42; P = 0.36). Second-appearing GADA, IAA, IA-2A, or ZnT8A conferred an increased risk of T1D compared with children who remained positive for a single autoantibody, e.g., IAA or GADA second (adjusted HR 6.44; 95% CI 3.78-10.98), IA-2A second (adjusted HR 16.33; 95% CI 9.10-29.29; P < 0.0001), or ZnT8A second (adjusted HR 5.35; 95% CI 2.61-10.95; P < 0.0001). In children who developed a distinct second autoantibody, IA-2A (adjusted HR 3.08; 95% CI 2.04-4.65; P < 0.0001) conferred a greater risk of progression to T1D as compared with GADA or IAA. Additionally, both a younger initial age at seroconversion and shorter time to the development of the second-appearing autoantibody increased the risk for T1D.Conclusions: The hierarchical order of distinct autoantibody spreading was independent of the first-appearing autoantibody type and was age-dependent and augmented the risk of progression to T1D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the costs and project the potential lifetime cost-effectiveness of the ongoing Autoimmunity Screening for Kids (ASK) program, a large-scale, presymptomatic type 1 diabetes screening program for children and adolescents in the metropolitan Denver region.Research Design and Methods: We report the resource utilization, costs, and effectiveness measures from the ongoing ASK program compared with usual care (i.e., no screening). Additionally, we report a practical screening scenario by including utilization and costs relevant to routine screening in clinical practice. Finally, we project the potential cost-effectiveness of ASK and routine screening by identifying clinical benchmarks (i.e., diabetic ketoacidosis [DKA] events avoided, HbA1c improvements vs. no screening) needed to meet value thresholds of $50,000-$150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained over a lifetime horizon.Results: Cost per case detected was $4,700 for ASK screening and $14,000 for routine screening. To achieve value thresholds of $50,000-$150,000 per QALY gained, screening costs would need to be offset by cost savings through 20% reductions in DKA events at diagnosis in addition to 0.1% (1.1 mmol/mol) improvements in HbA1c over a lifetime compared with no screening for patients who develop type 1 diabetes. Value thresholds were not met from avoiding DKA events alone in either scenario.Conclusions: Presymptomatic type 1 diabetes screening may be cost-effective in areas with a high prevalence of DKA and an infrastructure facilitating screening and monitoring if the benefits of avoiding DKA events and improved HbA1c persist over long-run time horizons. As more data are collected from ASK, the model will be updated with direct evidence on screening effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to model genetic, immunologic, metabolomics, and proteomic biomarkers for development of islet autoimmunity (IA) and progression to type 1 diabetes in a prospective high-risk cohort. We studied 67 children: 42 who developed IA (20 of 42 progressed to diabetes) and 25 control subjects matched for sex and age. Biomarkers were assessed at four time points: earliest available sample, just prior to IA, just after IA, and just prior to diabetes onset. Predictors of IA and progression to diabetes were identified across disparate sources using an integrative machine learning algorithm and optimization-based feature selection. Our integrative approach was predictive of IA (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.91) and progression to diabetes (AUC 0.92) based on standard cross-validation (CV). Among the strongest predictors of IA were change in serum ascorbate, 3-methyl-oxobutyrate, and the PTPN22 (rs2476601) polymorphism. Serum glucose, ADP fibrinogen, and mannose were among the strongest predictors of progression to diabetes. This proof-of-principle analysis is the first study to integrate large, diverse biomarker data sets into a limited number of features, highlighting differences in pathways leading to IA from those predicting progression to diabetes. Integrated models, if validated in independent populations, could provide novel clues concerning the pathways leading to IA and type 1 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Progression time from islet autoimmunity to clinical type 1 diabetes is highly variable and the extent that genetic factors contribute is unknown. Methods In 341 islet autoantibody-positive children with the human leucocyte antigen (HLA) DR3/DR4-DQ8 or the HLA DR4-DQ8/DR4-DQ8 genotype from the prospective TEDDY (The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young) study, we investigated whether a genetic risk score that had previously been shown to predict islet autoimmunity is also associated with disease progression. Results Islet autoantibody-positive children with a genetic risk score in the lowest quartile had a slower progression from single to multiple autoantibodies (p=0.018), from single autoantibodies to diabetes (p=0.004), and by trend from multiple islet autoantibodies to diabetes (p=0.06). In a Cox proportional hazards analysis, faster progression was associated with an increased genetic risk score independently of HLA genotype (HR for progression from multiple autoantibodies to type 1 diabetes, 1.27, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.58 per unit increase), an earlier age of islet autoantibody development (HR, 0.68, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.81 per year increase in age) and female sex (HR, 1.94, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.93). Conclusions Genetic risk scores may be used to identify islet autoantibody-positive children with high-risk HLA genotypes who have a slow rate of progression to subsequent stages of autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]