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The form and function of river deltas is intricately linked to the evolving structure of their channel networks, which controls how effectively deltas are nourished with sediments and nutrients. Understanding the coevolution of deltaic channels and their flux organization is crucial for guiding maintenance strategies of these highly stressed systems from a range of anthropogenic activities. To date, however, a unified theory explaining how deltas self-organize to distribute water and sediment up to the shoreline remains elusive. Here, we provide evidence for an optimality principle underlying the self-organized partition of fluxes in delta channel networks. By introducing a suitable nonlocal entropy rate ([Formula: see text]) and by analyzing field and simulated deltas, we suggest that delta networks achieve configurations that maximize the diversity of water and sediment flux delivery to the shoreline. We thus suggest that prograding deltas attain dynamically accessible optima of flux distributions on their channel network topologies, thus effectively decoupling evolutionary time scales of geomorphology and hydrology. When interpreted in terms of delta resilience, high nER configurations reflect an increased ability to withstand perturbations. However, the distributive mechanism responsible for both diversifying flux delivery to the shoreline and dampening possible perturbations might lead to catastrophic events when those perturbations exceed certain intensity thresholds.

Landscape topography is the expression of the dynamic equilibrium between external forcings (for example, climate and tectonics) and the underlying lithology. The magnitude and spatial arrangement of erosional and depositional fluxes dictate the evolution of landforms during both statistical steady state (SS) and transient state (TS) of major landscape reorganization. For SS landscapes, the common expectation is that any point of the landscape has an equal chance to erode below or above the landscape median erosion rate. We show that this is not the case. Afforded by a unique experimental landscape that provided a detailed space-time recording of erosional fluxes and by defining the so-called E50-area curve, we reveal for the first time that there exists a hierarchical pattern of erosion. Specifically, hillslopes and fluvial channels erode more rapidly than the landscape median erosion rate, whereas intervening parts of the landscape in terms of upstream contributing areas (colluvial regime) erode more slowly. We explain this apparent paradox by documenting the dynamic nature of SS landscapes-landscape locations may transition from being a hillslope to being a valley and then to being a fluvial channel due to ridge migration, channel piracy, and small-scale landscape dynamics through time. Under TS conditions caused by increased precipitation, we show that the E50-area curve drastically changes shape during landscape reorganization. Scale-dependent erosional patterns, as observed in this study, suggest benchmarks in evaluating numerical models and interpreting the variability of sampled erosional rates in field landscapes.

Network robustness against attacks has been widely studied in fields as diverse as the Internet, power grids and human societies. But current definition of robustness is only accounting for half of the story: the connectivity of the nodes unaffected by the attack. Here we propose a new framework to assess network robustness, wherein the connectivity of the affected nodes is also taken into consideration, acknowledging that it plays a crucial role in properly evaluating the overall network robustness in terms of its future recovery from the attack. Specifically, we propose a dual perspective approach wherein at any instant in the network evolution under attack, two distinct networks are defined: (i) the Active Network (AN) composed of the unaffected nodes and (ii) the Idle Network (IN) composed of the affected nodes. The proposed robustness metric considers both the efficiency of destroying the AN and that of building-up the IN. We show, via analysis of well-known prototype networks and real world data, that trade-offs between the efficiency of Active and Idle Network dynamics give rise to surprising robustness crossovers and re-rankings, which can have significant implications for decision making.

Coastal regions have long been settled by humans due to their abundant resources for livelihoods, including agriculture, transportation, and rich biodiversity. However, natural and anthropogenic factors, such as climate change and sea-level rise, and land subsidence, population pressure, developmental activities, pose threats to coastal sustainability. Natural hazards, such as fluvial or coastal floods, impact poorer and more vulnerable communities greater than more affluent communities. Quantitative assessments of how natural hazards affect vulnerable communities in deltaic regions are still limited, hampering the design of effective management strategies to increase household and community resilience. Drawing from Driving Forces–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR), we quantify the associations between household poverty and the likelihood of material and human loss following a natural hazard using new survey data from 783 households within Indian Sundarban Delta community. The results suggest that the poorest households are significantly more likely to endure material and human losses following a natural hazard and repeated losses of livelihood make them more vulnerable to future risk. The results further suggest that salinization, tidal surge, erosion, and household location are also significant predictors of economic and human losses. Given the current and projected impact of climate change and importance of delta regions as the world’s food baskets, poverty reduction and increase societal resilience should be a primary pathway to strengthen the resilience of the poorest populations inhabiting deltas.

We present a multi-sensor Bayesian passive microwave retrieval algorithm for flood inundation mapping at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The algorithm takes advantage of observations from multiple sensors in optical, short-infrared, and microwave bands, thereby allowing for detection and mapping of the sub-pixel fraction of inundated areas under almost all-sky conditions. The method relies on a nearest-neighbor search and a modern sparsity-promoting inversion method that make use of an a priori dataset in the form of two joint dictionaries. These dictionaries contain almost overlapping observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F17 satellite and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Aqua and Terra satellites. Evaluation of the retrieval algorithm over the Mekong Delta shows that it is capable of capturing to a good degree the inundation diurnal variability due to localized convective precipitation. At longer timescales, the results demonstrate consistency with the ground-based water level observations, denoting that the method is properly capturing inundation seasonal patterns in response to regional monsoonal rain. The calculated Euclidean distance, rank-correlation, and also copula quantile analysis demonstrate a good agreement between the outputs of the algorithm and the observed water levels at monthly and daily timescales. The current inundation products are at a resolution of 12.5 km and taken twice per day, but a higher resolution (order of 5 km and every 3 h) can be achieved using the same algorithm with the dictionary populated by the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) products.

The impacts of climate change on people’s livelihoods have been widely documented.1 It is expected that climate and environmental change will hamper poverty reduction, or even exacerbate poverty in some or all of its dimensions. Changes in the biophysical environment, such as droughts, flooding, water quantity and quality, and degrading ecosystems, are expected to affect opportunities for people to generate income. These changes, combined with a deficiency in coping strategies and innovation to adapt to particular climate change threats, are in turn likely to lead to increased economic and social vulnerability of households and communities, especially amongst the poorest.

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.

The availability of high-resolution digital elevation data (submeter resolution) from LiDAR has increased dramatically over the past few years. As a result, the efficient storage and transmission of those large data sets and their use for geomorphic feature extraction and hydrologic/environmental modeling are becoming a scientific challenge. This letter explores the use of multiresolution wavelet analysis for compression of LiDAR digital elevation data sets. The compression takes advantage of the fact that, in most landscapes, neighboring pixels are correlated and thus contain some redundant information. The space-frequency localization of the wavelet filters allows one to preserve detailed high-resolution features where needed while representing the rest of the landscape at lower resolution. We explore a lossy compression methodology based on biorthogonal wavelets and demonstrate that, by keeping only approximately 10% of the original information (data compression ratio ∼94%), the reconstructed landscapes retain most of the information of relevance to geomorphologic applications, such as the ability to accurately extract channel networks for environmental flux routing, as well as to identify geomorphic process transition from the curvature-slope and slope-distance relationships.

This paper introduces a new Bayesian approach to the inverse problem of passive microwave rainfall retrieval. The proposed methodology [called the shrunken locally linear embedding algorithm for retrieval of precipitation (ShARP)] relies on a regularization technique and makes use of two joint dictionaries of coincident rainfall profiles and their corresponding upwelling spectral radiative fluxes. A sequential detection-estimation strategy is adopted, which basically assumes that similar rainfall intensity values and their spectral radiances live close to some sufficiently smooth manifolds with analogous local geometry. The detection step employs a nearest neighbor classification rule, whereas the estimation scheme is equipped with a constrained shrinkage estimator to ensure the stability of retrieval and some physical consistency. The algorithm is examined using coincident observations of the active precipitation radar and the passive microwave imager onboard the TRMM satellite. We present promising results of instantaneous rainfall retrieval for some tropical storms and mesoscale convective systems over ocean, land, and coastal zones. We provide evidence that the algorithm is capable of properly capturing different storm morphologies including high-intensity rain cells and trailing light rainfall, particularly over land and coastal areas. The algorithm is also validated at an annual scale for calendar year 2013 versus the standard (version 7) radar (2A25) and radiometer (2A12) rainfall products of the TRMM satellite.

Satellite-based global precipitation data has addressed the limitations of rain gauges and weather radar systems in forecasting applications and for weather and climate studies. Inspite of this ability, a number of issues that require the development of advanced concepts to address key challenges in satellite-based observations of precipitation were identified during the Advanced Concepts Workshop on Remote Sensing of Precipitation at Multiple Scales at the University of California. These include quantification of uncertainties of individual sensors and their propagation into multisensor products warrants a great deal of research. The development of metrics for validation and uncertainty analysis are of great importance. Bias removal, particularly probability distribution function (PDF)-based adjustment, deserves more in-depth research. Development of a near-real-time probabilistic uncertainty model for satellitebased precipitation estimates is highly desirable.

In the western United States, prolonged drought, warming climate, and historical fuel build-up have contributed to larger and more intense wildfires, as well as longer fire seasons. As these costly wildfires become more common, new tools and methods are essential for improving our understanding of the evolution of fires and how extreme weather conditions, including heatwaves, windstorms, droughts, and varying levels of active fire suppression, influence fire spread. Here we develop the GOES-Observed Fire Event Representation (GOFER) algorithm to derive the hourly fire progression of large wildfires and create a dataset of hourly fire perimeters, active fire lines, and fire spread rates. Using GOES-East and GOES-West geostationary satellite detections of active fires, we test the GOFER algorithm on 28 large wildfires in California from 2019-2021. The GOFER algorithm includes parameter optimizations for defining the burned-to-unburned boundary and correcting for the parallax effect from elevated terrain. We evaluate GOFER perimeters with using 12-hourly data from the VIIRS-derived Fire Event Data Suite (FEDS) and final fire perimeters from California's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP). Although the GOES imagery used to derive GOFER has coarser resolution (2 km at the equator), the final fire perimeters from GOFER correspond reasonably well with those obtained from FRAP, with a mean Intersection-over-Union (IoU) of 0.77, in comparison to 0.83 between FEDS and FRAP. GOFER fills a key temporal gap present in other fire tracking products that rely on low-earth- orbit imagery, where perimeters are available at 12-hour intervals or longer, or at ad hoc intervals from aircraft overflights. This is particularly relevant when a fire spreads rapidly, such as at maximum hourly spread rates of over 5 km/h. Our GOFER algorithm for deriving the hourly fire progression using GOES can be applied to large wildfires across North and South America and reveals considerable variability in rates of fire spread on diurnal time scales. The resulting GOFER dataset has a broad set of applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting sediment yield from recently burned areas remains a challenge but is important for hazard and resource management as wildfire impacts increase. Here we use lidar‐based monitoring of two fires in southern California, USA to study the movement of sediment during pre‐rainfall periods and postfire periods of flooding and debris flows over multiple storm events. Using a data‐driven approach, we examine the relative importance of terrain, vegetation, burn severity, and rainfall amounts through time on sediment yield. We show that incipient fire‐activated dry sediment loading and pre‐fire colluvium were rapidly flushed out by debris flows and floods but continued erosion occurred later in the season from soil erosion and, in ∼9% of catchments, from shallow landslides. Based on these observations, we develop random forest regression models to predict dry ravel and incipient runoff‐driven sediment yield applicable to small steep headwater catchments in southern California. Plain Language Summary: Wildfire makes watersheds more susceptible to hazardous flash flooding and debris flows, yet characterization and prediction of these hazards remains limited. In this study, we used repeat airborne laser mapping to quantify the movement of sediment in steep burn areas during initial dry periods and subsequent erosion from runoff events. Based on these observations, we developed two predictive models: one to predict the filling of channels with sediment prior to rainfall and a second one to predict erosion by debris flows and floods during initial storm events, which showed improvement over another commonly used model. After initial runoff events, much of the available sediment in channels was transported downstream, however small landslides and extensive erosion of soils across the landscape continued to supply sediment to floods and debris flows, in line with studies elsewhere showing continued debris flow activity despite reduced sediment in channels. Our study demonstrates that airborne laser mapping together with data‐driven modeling offer opportunities to increase predictive ability of post‐fire erosion and such approaches should be further explored in regions such as northern California, where fire is expanding and models of post‐fire erosion need to be tested and refined. Key Points: Postfire dry and wet sediment transport were quantified with lidar and dominant controls were identified using random forest regressionSlope and sediment supply, including dry ravel, were the strongest controls on initial sediment yield by debris flows and floodsContinued sediment bulking occurred from soil erosion and patchy mass wasting later in the wet season as channels became supply limited [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]