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Climate model output has progressively increased in size over the past decades and is expected to continue to rise in the future. Consequently, the research time expended by Early Career Researchers (ECRs) on data-intensive activities is displacing the time spent in fostering novel scientific ideas and expanding the frontiers of climate sciences. Here, we highlight an urgent need for a better balance between data-intensive and foundational climate science activities, more open-ended research opportunities that reinforce the scientific freedom of the ECRs, and strong coordinated action to provide infrastructure and resources to the ECRs working in under-resourced environments.

Climate model output has progressively increased in size over the past decades and is expected to continue to rise in the future. Consequently, the research time expended by Early Career Researchers (ECRs) on data-intensive activities is displacing the time spent in fostering novel scientific ideas and expanding the frontiers of climate sciences. Here, we highlight an urgent need for a better balance between data-intensive and foundational climate science activities, more open-ended research opportunities that reinforce the scientific freedom of the ECRs, and strong coordinated action to provide infrastructure and resources to the ECRs working in under-resourced environments.

Moraes, D., Benevides, P., Costa, H., Moreira, F. D., & Caetano, M. (2022). Exploring Different Levels of Class Nomenclature in Random Forest Classification of Sentinel-2 Data. In IGARSS 2022 - 2022 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium: Proceedings (pp. 2279-2282). (International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS); Vol. 2022-July). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS46834.2022.9883798--------- Funding:The work has been supported by project foRESTER (PCIF ISSI/0102/20 17), SCAPEFIRE (PCIF IMOS/0046/ 2017) and by Centro de Investigçãao em Gestae de Informação (MagIC), all funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT). Value-added data processed by CNES for the Theia data centre www.theia-land.fr using Copernicus products. The processing uses algorithms developed by Theia's Scientific Expertise Centres. The current land cover mapping paradigm relies on automatic classification of satellite images, with supervised methods being the most used, implying training data to have a crucial role. Aspects such as training sample size and quality should be carefully considered. This paper proposes assessing the use of a detailed class nomenclature to reinforce class diversity in the training sample. A Random Forest (RF) classification of Sentinel-2 multi-temporal data was conducted. Additionally, the effect of sample size and class distribution were evaluated. The results indicate that the use of a detailed nomenclature provided better results in terms of classification accuracy. With respect to sample distribution, adopting class sizes proportional to their occurrence in a reference land cover map exhibited superior performance in comparison to an equal size approach. The effect of sample size on classification performance was limited, as previous studies with RF suggested. authorsversion published

Global warming-induced melting and thawing of the cryosphere are severely altering the volume and timing of water supplied from High Mountain Asia, adversely affecting downstream food and energy systems that are relied on by billions of people. The construction of more reservoirs designed to regulate streamflow and produce hydropower is a critical part of strategies for adapting to these changes. However, these projects are vulnerable to a complex set of interacting processes that are destabilizing landscapes throughout the region. Ranging in severity and the pace of change, these processes include glacial retreat and detachments, permafrost thaw and associated landslides, rock–ice avalanches, debris flows and outburst floods from glacial lakes and landslide-dammed lakes. The result is large amounts of sediment being mobilized that can fill up reservoirs, cause dam failure and degrade power turbines. Here we recommend forward-looking design and maintenance measures and sustainable sediment management solutions that can help transition towards climate change-resilient dams and reservoirs in High Mountain Asia, in large part based on improved monitoring and prediction of compound and cascading hazards.

Improving our confidence in future projections of sea-level rise requires models that can simulate ice-sheet evolution both in the future and in the geological past. A physically accurate treatment of large changes in ice-sheet geometry requires a proper treatment of processes near the margin, like grounding line dynamics, which in turn requires a high spatial resolution in that specific region, so that small-scale topographical features are resolved. This leads to a demand for computationally efficient models, where such a high resolution can be feasibly applied in simulations of 105-107 years in duration. Here, we present and evaluate a new ice-sheet model that solves the hybrid SIA-SSA approximation of the stress balance, including a heuristic rule for the groundingline flux. This is done on a dynamic adaptive mesh which is adapted to the modelled ice-sheet geometry during a simulation. Mesh resolution can be configured to be fine only at specified areas, such as the calving front or the grounding line, as well as specified point locations such as ice-core drill sites. This strongly reduces the number of grid points where the equations need to be solved, increasing the computational efficiency. A high resolution allows the model to resolve small geometrical features, such as outlet glaciers and sub-shelf pinning points, which can significantly affect large-scale ice-sheet dynamics. We show that the model reproduces the analytical solutions or model intercomparison benchmarks for a number of schematic ice-sheet configurations, indicating that the numerical approach is valid. Because of the unstructured triangular mesh, the number of vertices increases less rapidly with resolution than in a squaregrid model, greatly reducing the required computation time for high resolutions. A simulation of all four continental ice sheets during an entire 120 kyr glacial cycle, with a 4 km resolution near the grounding line, is expected to take 100- 200 wall clock hours on a 16-core system (1600-3200 core hours), implying that this model can be feasibly used for high-resolution palaeo-ice-sheet simulations., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Tidal flats provide valuable ecosystem services such as flood protection and carbon sequestration. Erosion and accretion processes govern the ecogeomorphic evolution of intertidal ecosystems (marshes and bare flats) and, hence, substantially affect their valuable ecosystem services. To understand the intertidal ecosystem development, high-frequency bed-level change data are thus needed. However, such datasets are scarce due to the lack of suitable methods that do not involve excessive labour and/or costly instruments. By applying newly developed surface elevation dynamics (SED) sensors, we obtained unique high-resolution daily bed-level change datasets in the period 2013–2017 from 10 marsh–mudflat sites situated in the Netherlands, Belgium, and the United Kingdom in contrasting physical and biological settings. At each site, multiple sensors were deployed for 9–20 months to ensure sufficient spatial and temporal coverage of highly variable bed-level change processes. The bed-level change data are provided with synchronized hydrodynamic data, i.e. water level, wave height, tidal current velocity, medium sediment grain size (D50), and chlorophyll a level at four sites. This dataset has revealed diverse spatial morphodynamics patterns over daily to seasonal scales, which are valuable to theoretical and model development. On the daily scale, this dataset is particularly instructive, as it includes a number of storm events, the response to which can be detected in the bed-level change observations. Such data are rare but useful to study tidal flat response to highly energetic conditions. The dataset is available from 4TU.ResearchData (https://doi.org/10.4121/12693254.v4; Hu et al., 2020), which is expected to expand with additional SED sensor data from ongoing and planned surveys.

Drought can be described as a temporary decrease in water availability over a significant period that affects both surface and groundwater resources. Droughts propagate through the hydrological cycle and may impact vulnerable ecosystems. This paper investigates drought propagation in the hydrological cycle, focusing on assessing its impact on a groundwater-fed wetland ecosystem. Meteorological drought indices were used to analyze meteorological drought severity. Moreover, a method for assessing groundwater drought and its propagation in the aquifer was developed and applied. Groundwater drought was analyzed using the variable threshold method. Furthermore, meteorological drought and groundwater drought on recharge were compared to investigate drought propagation in the hydrological cycle. This research is carried out in the Doode Bemde wetland in central Belgium. The results of this research show that droughts are attenuated in the groundwater system. The number and severity of drought events on groundwater discharge were smaller than for groundwater recharge. However, the onset of both drought events occurred at the same time, indicating a quick response of the groundwater system to hydrological stresses. In addition, drought propagation in the hydrological cycle indicated that not all meteorological droughts result in groundwater drought. Furthermore, this drought propagation effect was observed in the wetland. ispartof: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) vol:21 issue:1 pages:39-51 status: published

People’s vulnerability, exposure and capacity are key components of a risk assessment. Index-based methodologies have proved useful to document spatial variation in risk-controlling factors. The objective of this study is to propose a methodology to derive quantitative indicators of household vulnerability, exposure and capacity to assess household’s risk and its spatial variation. The method is applied to six unions of the coastal region of Bangladesh, including three offshore islands. Field data are collected by questionnaire survey of 609 households and 6 focus group discussions. Using conventional data conversion and aggregation methods and principle component analysis (PCA), the variables are summarized into a small set of dimensions to derive vulnerability and capacity scores. Result shows that households of islands are generally more vulnerable to natural hazards than nearby onshore unions. Unions of the central coast of Bangladesh are characterized by households with higher vulnerability and lower capacities than two other parts. The fatality rate of cyclone SIDR at village level is used to validate the spatial variation of household risk for one surveyed union. The proposed methodology and produced maps could support national to local government bodies in assessing household risk and identifying locations where to implement specific risk reduction measures.

A valuable analogue for assessing Earth's sensitivity to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG; 129–116 ka), when global temperatures (0 to +2 ∘C) and mean sea level (+6 to 11 m) were higher than today. The direct contribution of warmer conditions to global sea level (thermosteric) is uncertain. We report here a global network of LIG sea surface temperatures (SST) obtained from various published temperature proxies (e.g. faunal and floral plankton assemblages, Mg ∕ Ca ratios of calcareous organisms, and alkenone U37K′). We summarize the current limitations of SST reconstructions for the LIG and the spatial temperature features of a naturally warmer world. Because of local δ18O seawater changes, uncertainty in the age models of marine cores, and differences in sampling resolution and/or sedimentation rates, the reconstructions are restricted to mean conditions. To avoid bias towards individual LIG SSTs based on only a single (and potentially erroneous) measurement or a single interpolated data point, here we report average values across the entire LIG. Each site reconstruction is given as an anomaly relative to 1981–2010, corrected for ocean drift, and where available seasonal estimates are provided (189 annual, 99 December–February, and 92 June–August records). To investigate the sensitivity of the reconstruction to high temperatures, we also report maximum values during the first 5 millennia of the LIG (129–124 ka). We find mean global annual SST anomalies of 0.2 ± 0.1 ∘C averaged across the LIG and an early maximum peak of 0.9 ± 0.1 ∘C, respectively. The global dataset provides a remarkably coherent pattern of higher SST increases at polar latitudes than in the tropics (demonstrating the polar amplification of surface temperatures during the LIG), with comparable estimates between different proxies. Polewards of 45∘ latitude, we observe annual SST anomalies averaged across the full LIG of > 0.8 ± 0.3 ∘C in both hemispheres with an early maximum peak of > 2.1 ± 0.3 ∘C. Using the reconstructed SSTs suggests a mean LIG global thermosteric sea level rise of 0.08 ± 0.1 m and a peak contribution of 0.39 ± 0.1 m, respectively (assuming warming penetrated to 2000 m depth). The data provide an important natural baseline for a warmer world, constraining the contributions of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to global sea level during a geographically widespread expression of high sea level, and can be used to test the next inter-comparison of models for projecting future climate change. The dataset described in this paper, including summary temperature and thermosteric sea level reconstructions, is available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.904381 (Turney et al., 2019).

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7–9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs – timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change.

Debris flows can grow greatly in size and hazardous potential by eroding bed and bank materials. However, erosion mechanisms are poorly understood because debris flows are complex hybrids between a fluid flow and a moving mass of colliding particles, bed erodibility varies between events, and field measurements are hard to obtain. Here, we identify the key controls on debris-flow erosion based on a field data set that combines information on flow properties, bed conditions, and bed and bank erosion. We show that flow conditions and bed wetness jointly control debris-flow erosion. Flow conditions describing the cumulative forces exerted at the bed during an event best explain erosion. Shear forces and particle-impact forces are strongly correlated and act in conjunction in the erosion process. A shear-stress approach accounting for bed erodibility may therefore be applicable for modeling and predicting debris-flow erosion. This work provides a foundation for developing effective debris-flow erosion models.

The swelling-shrinkage behavior of smectites induced by interlayer uptake or sorption of CO2 and H2O has been investigated with increasing interest recent years, primarily because of its potential impact on the sealing efficiency of clay-bearing caprocks overlying CO2 storage reservoirs. To get a better understanding of the stress-strain-sorption coupling in smectite exposed to supercritical CO2, we performed multiple stepwise axial loading and unloading, oedometer-type experiments on ∼1 mm thick discs of pre-pressed Na-SWy-1 and of Ca-SAz-1 montmorillonite. Initially air-dry (AD) samples were first tested in the presence of wet CO2 (20% RH) at 10 MPa pressure, and in the vacuum-dry (VD) state in the presence of pure (dry) CO2 at 10 MPa. The samples were incrementally loaded and unloaded at 40°C, employing effective axial stresses ranging from 0.5 to 44 MPa. Control tests using wet and dry He or Ar instead of CO2, were performed to distinguish strains due to loading-related CO2 sorption/desorption from purely poroelastic effects. All samples saturated with CO2 exhibited 30–65% lower apparent stiffness moduli than when saturated with He or Ar, showing that CO2 adsorption/desorption altered the mechanical response of pre-pressed smectites. Relative to the He and Ar tests, swelling strains of a few % (corrected for poroelastic effects) were measured for AD Na-SWy-1 smectite exposed to wet CO2, decreasing from 4.9 to 3.8% with increasing effective axial stresses in the range 1.6–36.2 MPa. AD SAz-1 material exhibited similar tends. VD samples tested with dry CO2 showed much smaller relative swelling strains (0.5–1.5%), which also decreased with increasing applied effective stresses. The experimental data on relative swelling strain versus effective stress are well fitted by a recent thermodynamic model for stress-strain-sorption behavior in coal. Results derived from model fits indicate that smectite-rich rocks have significant storage capacity for CO2 at shallow depths (up to 1.5–2 km) through CO2 sorption by the clay minerals. However, this component of storage capacity is reduced by more than 80% with increasing burial depth beyond 3 km. The model provides a first step towards modelling stress-strain-sorption effects in smectite rich caprocks penetrated by CO2, though further refinements are needed for broader application to the smectite-CO2-H2O system.

Correction to: Communications Earth & Environment https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00431-8, published online 28 April 2022.

Permeability evolution in coal reservoirs during CO2-enhanced coalbed methane (ECBM) production is strongly influenced by swelling/shrinkage effects related to sorption and desorption of CO2 and CH4, respectively. Recent research has demonstrated fully coupled stress–strain–sorption–diffusion behavior in small samples of cleat-free coal matrix material exposed to a sorbing gas. However, it is unclear how such effects influence permeability evolution at the scale of a cleated coal seam and whether a simple fracture permeability model, such as the Walsh elastic asperity loading model, is appropriate. In this study, we performed steady-state permeability measurements, to CH4 and CO2, on a cylindrical sample of highly volatile bituminous coal (25 mm in diameter) with a clearly visible cleat system, under (near) fixed volume versus fixed stress conditions. To isolate the effect of sorption on permeability evolution, helium (non-sorbing gas) was used as a control fluid. All flow-through tests reported here were conducted under conditions of single-phase flow at 40°C, at applied Terzaghi effective confining pressures of 14–41 MPa. Permeability evolution versus effective stress data were obtained under both fixed volume and fixed stress boundary conditions, showing an exponential correlation. Importantly, permeability (κ) obtained at similar Terzaghi effective confining pressures showed κhelium > κCH4 >> κCO2, while κ-values measured in the fixed volume condition were higher than those in the fixed stress case. The results show that permeability to CH4 and CO2, under in situ conditions where free swelling of rock is not possible, is strongly influenced by the coupled effects of 1) self-stress generated by constrained swelling, 2) the change in effective stress coefficient upon sorption, 3) sorption-induced closure of transport paths independently of poroelastic effect, and 4) heterogeneous gas penetration and equilibration, dependent on diffusion. Our results also show that the Walsh permeability model offers a promising basis for relating permeability evolution to in situ stress evolution, using appropriate parameter values corrected for the effects of stress–strain–sorption.

The ties between a society and its local ecosystem can decouple as societies develop and replace ecosystem services such as food or water regulation via trade and technology. River deltas have developed into important, yet threatened, urban, agricultural and industrial centres. Here, we use global spatial datasets to explore how 49 ecosystem services respond to four human modification indicators, e.g. population density, across 235 large deltas. We formed bundles of statistically correlated ecosystem services and examined if their relationship with modification changed. Decoupling of all robust ecosystem service bundles from at least one modification indicator was indicated in 34% of deltas, while 53% displayed decoupling for at least one bundle. Food-related ecosystem services increased with modification, while the other bundles declined. Our findings suggest two developmental pathways for deltas: as coupled agricultural systems risking irreversible local biodiversity loss; and as decoupled urban centres externalising the impact of their growing demands.

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4% relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5±0.5GtCyr-1 (9.3±0.5GtCyr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9±0.7GtCyr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2±0.8GtCyr-1 (37.4±2.9GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0±0.2GtCyr-1 (2.4±0.1ppmyr-1), SOCEAN was 3.0±0.4GtCyr-1, and SLAND was 2.9±1GtCyr-1, with a BIM of -0.8GtCyr-1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45±0.1ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8% (4.2% to 5.4%) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2020, but discrepancies of up to 1GtCyr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Costa, H., Benevides, P., Moreira, F. D., Moraes, D., & Caetano, M. (2022). Spatially Stratified and Multi-Stage Approach for National Land Cover Mapping Based on Sentinel-2 Data and Expert Knowledge. Remote Sensing, 14(8), 1-21. [1865]. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14081865 -----This research was funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) through projects IPSTERS (DSAIPA/AI/0100/2018), foRESTER (PCIF/SSI/0102/2017), and SCAPEFIRE (PCIF/MOS/0046/2017), and by Compete2020 (POCI-05-5762-FSE-000368), supported by the European Social Fund. The APC was funded by project foRESTER (PCIF/SSI/0102/2017). Portugal is building a land cover monitoring system to deliver land cover products annually for its mainland territory. This paper presents the methodology developed to produce a prototype relative to 2018 as the first land cover map of the future annual map series (COSsim). A total of thirteen land cover classes are represented, including the most important tree species in Portugal. The mapping approach developed includes two levels of spatial stratification based on landscape dynamics. Strata are analysed independently at the higher level, while nested sublevels can share data and procedures. Multiple stages of analysis are implemented in which subsequent stages improve the outputs of precedent stages. The goal is to adjust mapping to the local landscape and tackle specific problems or divide complex mapping tasks in several parts. Supervised classification of Sentinel-2 time series and post-classification analysis with expert knowledge were performed throughout four stages. The overall accuracy of the map is estimated at 81.3% (±2.1) at the 95% confidence level. Higher thematic accuracy was achieved in southern Portugal, and expert knowledge significantly improved the quality of the map. publishersversion published

Data availability: The datasets were derived from sources in the public domain. The tide gauge data used in this research were provided by the Sea Level Station Monitoring Facility of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/list.php; IOC, 2022). We used bathymetric and topographic data of the General Bathymetric Chart of the Ocean (https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/; GEBCO, 2022). We used the earthquake focal mechanism catalog of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Project (https://www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html; Global CMT, 2022) and the earthquake source model of the United States Geological Survey (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000dflf/executive; USGS, 2022). We used the GMT software for drafting some of the figures (Wessel and Smith, 1998). Copyright © The Author(s) 2022. On 4 March 2021, two tsunamigenic earthquakes (Mw 7.4 and Mw 8.1) occurred successively within 2 h in the Kermadec Islands, offshore New Zealand. We examined sea level records at tide gauges located at ∼100 to ∼2000 km from the epicenters, conducted Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as numerical modeling of both tsunamis. Fourier analyses indicated that the energy of the first tsunami is mainly distributed over the period range of 5–17 min, whereas it is 8–32 min for the second tsunami. Wavelet plots showed that the oscillations of the first tsunami continued even after the arrival of the second tsunami. As the epicenters of two earthquakes are close to each other (∼55 km), we reconstructed the source spectrum of the second tsunami by using the first tsunami as the empirical Green's function. The main spectral peaks are 25.6, 16.0, and 9.8 min. The results are similar to those calculated using tsunami-to-background ratio method and are also consistent with the source models. Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (grant no. 19J20293); Royal Society (grant no. CHL\R1\180173).

Similar to horizontal earthquake motions, vertical motions are amplified depedent on the local site conditions which can be critical for the safety of certain structures. Production of natural gas in Groningen, the Netherlands, results in reservoir compaction causing low magnitude, shallow earthquakes which are recorded with a borehole seismic network. These recordings form an excellent data set to understand how shallow unconsolidated subsurface geology influences the amplification behaviour of compressional waves (P-waves). First, we present borehole and single-station techniques (amplification factors, empirical transfer functions (ETF) and V/H spectral ratio implementations) to quantify vertical amplification. We show that vertical-wave incidence is a reasonable assumption. All techniques are capable of emphasising the sites with strong amplification of vertical ground motion during an earthquake. Subsequently, we compare ETF with single-station methods with the aim to develop proxies for vertical site-response using spectral ratios. In a second step, we link vertical site-response with shallow subsurface conditions, like the P-wave velocity and peat content. To better understand the amplification mechanisms, we analytically simulate P-wave propagation. In the simulations, we compute synthetic transfer functions using realistic subsurface conditions and make a comparison with the ETF. The simulations support the hypothesis that thin layers of shallow gas, originating from the Holocene peat, result in wave amplification. We observe strong vertical site-response in particular in the eastern part of Groningen, with industrial facilities and pipeline infrastructure in the region. Here, if high vertical amplifications are persistent at large earthquake magnitudes, appreciable levels of vertical loading may be expected. This study demonstrates that vertical motions should be assessed separately from horizontal motions, given that the amplification behaviour of P-waves is affected by distinctive mechanisms.

Robust paleomagnetic results through geological time are one of the keys to understand the drift history of the eastern Qiangtang terrane (EQT). Here, we presented comprehensive petrographic observations and rock magnetic and paleomagnetic analyses of the early Carboniferous Upper Zaduo (ZD) limestone Formation (C1z2) from the Sulucun (SLC) section in the Zaduo area, EQT, to investigate its magnetic originality and geological significance. A total of 12 sites (131 samples) were collected. Photomicrograph observations indicate that the limestone samples were characterized by widespread carbonate veinlets. Electron microprobe and energy dispersive spectrometry analyses confirm that authigenic magnetite formed after pyrite. Rock magnetic analyses reveal the dominant magnetic minerals of pyrite and magnetite, with ‘wasp-waisted’ hysteresis loops and close to the “remagnetization trend” hysteresis parameters. Based on both thermal and alternating field demagnetizations, the characteristic remanent magnetization directions for most samples were isolated: Dg = 6.3°, Ig = 50.1°, kg = 54.9, α95 = 6.2° in-situ, and Ds = 330.2°, Is = 58.9°, ks = 5.9, and α95 = 20.5° after 2-step tilt correction. The κ (α95) value decreases (increases) after tilt-correction, and the ChRM directions failed both the McFadden (1990), Watson and Enkin (1993) fold tests, indicating post-folding magnetizations. The 11 site-mean directions yield a mean in-situ paleopole of 84.4°N, 200.3°E, and A95 = 6.8°, which is coincident with the post ∼53 Myr (especially around 40 Ma) paleopoles of the region. We therefore interpreted that these early Carboniferous limestone samples contain remagnetized magnetizations and that they were obtained after 53 Ma, most likely around 40 Ma, due to the far-field effect of the India–Eurasia collision.

Turbulent mixing is a vital component of vertical particulate transport, but ocean global circulation models (OGCMs) generally have low-resolution representations of near-surface mixing. Furthermore, turbulence data are often not provided in OGCM model output. We present 1D parametrizations of wind-driven turbulent mixing in the ocean surface mixed layer that are designed to be easily included in 3D Lagrangian model experiments. Stochastic transport is computed by Markov-0 or Markov-1 models, and we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of two vertical profiles for the vertical diffusion coefficient Kz. All vertical diffusion profiles and stochastic transport models lead to stable concentration profiles for buoyant particles, which for particles with rise velocities of 0.03 and 0.003 m s−1 agree relatively well with concentration profiles from field measurements of microplastics when Langmuir-circulation-driven turbulence is accounted for. Markov-0 models provide good model performance for integration time steps of Δt≈30 s and can be readily applied when studying the behavior of buoyant particulates in the ocean. Markov-1 models do not consistently improve model performance relative to Markov-0 models and require an additional parameter that is poorly constrained.

Turbulent mixing is a vital component of vertical particulate transport, but ocean global circulation models (OGCMs) generally have low-resolution representations of near-surface mixing. Furthermore, turbulence data are often not provided in OGCM model output. We present 1D parametrizations of wind-driven turbulent mixing in the ocean surface mixed layer that are designed to be easily included in 3D Lagrangian model experiments. Stochastic transport is computed by Markov-0 or Markov-1 models, and we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of two vertical profiles for the vertical diffusion coefficient Kz. All vertical diffusion profiles and stochastic transport models lead to stable concentration profiles for buoyant particles, which for particles with rise velocities of 0.03 and 0.003gmgs-1 agree relatively well with concentration profiles from field measurements of microplastics when Langmuir-circulation-driven turbulence is accounted for. Markov-0 models provide good model performance for integration time steps of "t≈30gs and can be readily applied when studying the behavior of buoyant particulates in the ocean. Markov-1 models do not consistently improve model performance relative to Markov-0 models and require an additional parameter that is poorly constrained.

Global reorganizations of tectonic plates may be caused by a trigger such as a continental collision or a rising mantle plume. However, whether and how such a trigger propagates through a plate circuit remains unclear. Here we use a plate kinematic model to quantify relative motions between the African and Eurasian plates following a plume-induced plate motion change that triggered formation of a new subduction zone within the Neotethys Ocean at 105 Ma. We constrain the plate kinematic model by geomagnetic intensity variations recorded in Atlantic quiet zone crust that formed during the Cretaceous Normal Superchron (126–83 Ma), during which magnetic reversals were absent. We find that convergence rate changes between Africa and Eurasia are well explained by the initiation and arrest of the plume-induced subduction zone. Our plate kinematic model also reveals that the plate acceleration that followed upon subduction initiation changed the Africa–Eurasia convergence direction, which in turn was accommodated by subsequent subduction initiation about 85 Ma in the Alpine region that then triggered a cascade of regional tectonic events. This plate tectonic chain reaction illustrates how changes in plate motion, underpinned by mantle dynamics, may self-perpetuate through a plate circuit.

Rivers exhibit a wide variety of channel patterns, and predicting changes in channel pattern is important in order to foresee river responses to climate change and river restoration. Many discriminators have been developed to define approximate boundary conditions for different channel patterns, based on channel-pattern-controlling parameters such as discharge and valley gradient. However, presently available discriminators have two main shortcomings. First, they perform poorly for rivers with cohesive, relatively erosion-resistant banks. For this subset, discriminators tend to indicate an actively meandering channel pattern, whereas the river morphology and dynamics show that many of these rivers should be classified as laterally stable. Second, channel pattern discriminators are often used to predict channel patterns, which is only valid when parameters are used that are independent of actual channel pattern. This condition is often not met, as many discriminators use the channel slope or width–depth ratio of the channel as input. To resolve both shortcomings, we first propose an additional class of rivers with scroll bars and tortuous channel patterns, which have an inhibited mobility due to their self-formed cohesive deposits. Second, we compare frequently used empirical and mechanistic channel pattern discriminators, taking into account the success in predicting channel pattern and the independence of causal factors used. Thirdly, we present a novel channel pattern discriminator and predictor that includes the effect of a cohesive floodplain, using the average silt-plus-clay fraction of the river banks as proxy. We show that this new predictor outperforms previously used empirical and mechanistic approaches, and successfully predicts channel pattern for 87% of the rivers from a dataset of 70. This new predictor is widely applicable, as it is relatively simple and based on easily obtainable, and mostly independent, parameters.

Dissolved carbon (C) leaching in and from soils plays an important role in C transport along the terrestrial-aquatic continuum. However, a global overview and analysis of dissolved carbon in soil solutions, covering a wide range of vegetation types and climates, is lacking. We compiled a global database on annual average dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in soil solutions, including potential governing factors, with 762 entries from 351 different sites covering a range of climate zones, land cover types and soil classes. Using this database we develop regression models to calculate topsoil concentrations, and concentrations versus depth in the subsoil at the global scale. For DIC, the lack of a proportional globally distributed cover inhibits analysis on a global scale. For DOC, annual average concentrations range from 1.7 to 88.3 (median = 25.27) mg C/L for topsoils (n = 255) and from 0.42 to 372.1 (median = 5.50) mg C/L for subsoils (n = 285, excluding lab incubations). Highest topsoil values occur in forests of cooler, humid zones. In topsoils, multiple regression showed that precipitation is the most significant factor. Our global topsoil DOC model ($${\mathrm{R}}^{2}=0.36$$ R 2 = 0.36 ) uses precipitation, soil class, climate zone and land cover type as model factors. Our global subsoil model describes DOC concentrations vs. depth for different USDA soil classes (overall ($${\mathrm{R}}^{2}=0.45$$ R 2 = 0.45 ). Highest subsoil DOC concentrations are calculated for Histosols.

Dinosaur body fossil material is rare in Scotland, previously known almost exclusively from the Great Estuarine Group on the Isle of Skye. We report the first unequivocal dinosaur fossil from the Isle of Eigg, belonging to a Bathonian (Middle Jurassic) taxon of uncertain affinity. The limb bone NMS G.2020.10.1 is incomplete, but through a combination of anatomical comparison and osteohistology, we determine it most likely represents a stegosaur fibula. The overall proportions and cross-sectional geometry are similar to the fibulae of thyreophorans. Examination of the bone microstructure reveals a high degree of remodelling and randomly distributed longitudinal canals in the remaining primary cortical bone. This contrasts with the histological signal expected of theropod or sauropod limb bones, but is consistent with previous studies of thyreophorans, specifically stegosaurs. Previous dinosaur material from Skye and broadly contemporaneous sites in England belongs to this group, including Loricatosaurus and Sarcolestes and a number of indeterminate stegosaur specimens. Theropods such as Megalosaurus and sauropods such as Cetiosaurus are also known from these localities. Although we find strong evidence for a stegosaur affinity, diagnostic features are not observed on NMS G.2020.10.1, preventing us from referring it to any known genera. The presence of this large-bodied stegosaur on Eigg adds a significant new datapoint for dinosaur distribution in the Middle Jurassic of Scotland.

Hyaloclastites commonly form high-quality reservoir rocks in volcanic geothermal provinces. Here, we investigated the effects of confinement due to burial following prolonged accumulation of eruptive products on the physical and mechanical evolution of surficial and subsurface (depths of 70 m, 556 m, and 732 m) hyaloclastites from Krafla volcano, Iceland. Upon loading in a hydrostatic cell, the porosity and permeability of the surficial hyaloclastite decreased linearly with mean effective stress, as pores and cracks closed due to elastic (recoverable) compaction up to 22-24 MPa (equivalent to ~1.3 km depth in the reservoir). Beyond this mean effective stress, denoted as P ∗ ,we observed accelerated porosity and permeability reduction with increasing confinement, as the rock underwent permanent inelastic compaction. In comparison, the porosity and permeability of the subsurface core samples were less sensitive to mean effective stress, decreasing linearly with increasing confinement as the samples compacted elastically within the conditions tested (to 40 MPa). Although the surficial material underwent permanent, destructive compaction, it maintained higher porosity and permeability than the subsurface hyaloclastites throughout the experiments. We constrained the evolution of yield curves of the hyaloclastites, subjected to different effective mean stresses in a triaxial press. Surficial hyaloclastites underwent a brittle-ductile transition at an effective mean stress of ~10.5 MPa, and peak strength (differential stress) reached 13 MPa. When loaded to effective mean stresses of 33 and 40 MPa, the rocks compacted, producing new yield curves with a brittle-ductile transition at ~12.5 and ~19 MPa, respectively, but showed limited strength increase. In comparison, the subsurface samples were found to be much stronger, displaying higher strengths and brittle-ductile transitions at higher effective mean stresses (i.e. 37.5 MPa for 70 m sample, >75 MPa for 556 m, and 68.5 MPa for 732 m) that correspond to their lower porosities and permeabilities. Thus, we conclude that compaction upon burial alone is insufficient to explain the physical and mechanical properties of the subsurface hyaloclastites present in the reservoir at Krafla volcano. Mineralogical alteration, quantified using SEM-EDS, is invoked to explain the further reduction of porosity and increase in strength of the hyaloclastite in the active geothermal system at Krafla., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 ĝC above 1850-1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30ĝ N, 15ĝ N, 15ĝ S, and 30ĝ S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-To-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 ĝC vs. 2.0 ĝC). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems.

The evolution of the Lycian Foreland and Aksu basins are associated with the Africa-Eurasia convergence and collision of intervening continental blocks. Both basins developed around the Beydağları, a Mesozoic carbonate platform, which constitutes the main component and western limb of the Isparta Angle. The Gömbe Basin is an integral part of the Lycian Foreland Basin that comprises mainly Eocene to Late Miocene turbidites, onto which the allochthonous Lycian and Antalya nappes thrust over. The Aksu Basin, however, developed in the inner part of the Isparta Angle and is bounded by the Aksu Thrust in the east. During their evolution, these basins experienced significant bathymetric changes, possibly due to vertical motions and variations in the sediment supply. This study provides a detailed analysis of the paleobathymetric evolution of these basins. This conducted paleobathymetric study was based on the determination of the depositional depth by the abundance ratio of planktonic versus benthic foraminifera, which is the function of the water depth. The percentage of planktonic foraminifera relative to the total foraminifer population %P increases from shallow to deep water. However, some benthic foraminifera species are directly affected by the oxygen level of the bottom water, rather than by paleobathymetry, i.e. stress markers, and were discarded in the calculation. Additionally, the dissolution of the foraminifera has the potential for miscalculations, since planktonic foraminifera are more prone to dissolution than benthic ones. Nevertheless, the obtained quantitative results were verified and validated qualitatively by specific benthic depth markers that lived at specific depth ranges. Aksu Basin had a shallowing trend, and the sedimentation rate exceeded the subsidence in the middle of the section. Calculated depths for the Gömbe Basin indicated depths around 1000 m, which was contrary to the high sedimentation rates indicated by the turbiditic facies of the basin infills.

In Antarctica, Global Positioning System (GPS) vertical time series exhibit non-linear signals over a wide range of temporal scales. To explain these non-linearities, a number of hypotheses have been proposed, among them the short-term rapid solid Earth response to contemporaneous ice mass change. Here we use GPS vertical time series to reveal the solid Earth response to variations in surface mass balance (SMB) in the Southern Antarctic Peninsula (SAP). At four locations in the SAP we show that interannual variations of SMB anomalies cause measurable elastic deformation. We use regional climate model SMB products to calculate the induced displacement assuming a perfectly elastic Earth. Our results show a reduction of the misfit when fitting a linear trend to GPS time series corrected for the elastic response to SMB variations. Our results imply that, for a better understanding of the glacial isostatic adjustment signal in Antarctica, SMB variability must be considered.

Beaches are thought to be a large reservoir for marine plastics. To protect vulnerable beaches, it is advantageous to have information on the sources of this plastic. Here, we develop a universally applicable Bayesian framework to map sources of plastic arriving on a specific beach. In this framework, we combine Lagrangian backtracking simulations of drifting particles with estimates of plastic input from coastlines, rivers and fisheries. The advantage over traditional Lagrangian simulations is that the Bayesian framework can consider information on known sources, and thus facilitates spatiotemporal source attribution for plastic arriving at the specified beach. We show that the main sources for our target beach in southwest Netherlands are the east coast of the UK, the Dutch coast, the English Channel (fisheries) and the Thames, Seine, Rhine and Trieux (rivers). We also show that floating time is a major uncertainty in source attribution using backtracking.

Some lipid-biomarker-based sea surface temperature (SST) proxies applied in the modern Mediterranean Sea exhibit large offsets from expected values, generating uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Lateral transport of proxy carriers along ocean currents prior to burial can contribute to this offset between reconstructed and expected SSTs. We perform virtual particle tracking experiments to simulate transport prior to and during sinking and derive a quantitative estimate of transport bias for alkenones and glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), which form the basis of the UK’37 and TEX86 paleothermometers, respectively. We use a simple 30-day surface advection scenario and sinking speeds appropriate for the export of various proxy carriers (6, 12, 25, 50, 100, 250, 500, and 1000 md−1). For the assessed scenarios, lateral transport bias is generally small (always

International audience; We analyze major landforms of the Lut Desert in Iran to provide a comprehensive source-to-sink picture of aeolian systems on time scales from decades to millions of years. We map the modern sandflows, along which we evaluate the volume and chronology associated with the excavation of mega-yardangs upwind and the formation of giant dunes downwind. Sediment discharges deduced from long-term erosion and deposition are of the same order of magnitude (105-106 m3 yr−1) as short-term and medium-term sand discharges derived from wind data and dune morphodynamics. At the scale of the internal aeolian sediment-routing system of the Lut, we establish an overall sediment budget constrained by the joint development of the erosional and depositional landforms. Our findings thus quantify the geomorphic controls of aeolian processes on arid landscapes at multiple length and time scales, while providing information on mass exchanges between continents and atmosphere.

Reconstructing the emergence and weathering of continental crust in the Archaean eon is crucial for our understanding of early ocean chemistry, biosphere evolution and the onset of plate tectonics. However, considerable disagreement exists between elemental and isotopic proxies that have been used to trace crustal input into marine sediments, and data are scarce before 3 Ga. Here we show that chemical weathering modified the Sr isotopic composition of seawater as recorded in 3.52–3.20 Ga stratiform barite deposits from three different cratons. Using a combination of Sr, S and O isotope data, barite petrography and a hydrothermal mixing model, we calculate a Sr isotope evolution trend of Palaeoarchaean seawater that is much more radiogenic than the curve previously determined from carbonate rocks. Our findings suggest that evolved crust containing high Rb/Sr was subaerial and weathering into the oceans from approximately 3.7 ± 0.15 Ga onwards with impacts on ocean chemistry and the nutrient supply to the marine biosphere.

The early Eocene hothouse experienced highly elevated atmospheric CO2 levels and multiple transient global warming events, so-called hyperthermals. The deep ocean constitutes an assumed setting to estimate past global mean temperatures. However, available deep-sea temperature reconstructions from conventional benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes and magnesium/calcium ratios rely on uncertain assumptions of non-thermal influences, associated with seawater chemistry and species-specific physiological effects. Here we apply the carbonate clumped isotope thermometer, a proxy not governed by these uncertainties, to evaluate South Atlantic deep-sea temperatures across two hyperthermal events in the early Eocene (Eocene Thermal Maximum 2/H1 and H2; ~54 Myr ago). Our independent reconstructions indicate deep-sea temperatures of 13.5 ± 1.9 °C (95% CI) for the background conditions and average hyperthermal peak temperatures of 16.9 ± 2.3 °C (95% CI). On average, these absolute temperatures are three degrees warmer than estimates from benthic oxygen isotopes. This finding implies a necessary reassessment of (1) the Eocene seawater isotope composition and (2) pH changes in the deep ocean and its potential influence on benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records.

This collaborative article discusses the opportunities and challenges of adopting integrated, coordinated, open, and networked (ICON) principles in atmospheric sciences. From the global nature of the atmosphere, there has always been a need for atmospheric science to be an ICON science. With the help of evolving technology, it is possible to go further in implementing and spreading the ICON principles for productive global collaboration. In particular, technology transfer and applications could be approached with reproducibility in mind, and data‐sharing infrastructure could enable easier and better international collaboration. There are, however, various challenges in following the ICON principles in the acquisition, quality control, and maintenance of data, and the publication of results in a systematic way. Moreover, the extent of such issues varies geographically and hence poses different challenges to implementing ICON principles. In this commentary article, we briefly state our perspectives on the state of ICON, challenges we have met, and future opportunities. Furthermore, we describe how atmospheric science researchers have benefited from these collaborative multi‐dimensional approaches that fulfill the core goal of ICON.

Ground and infrastructure stability are important for our technologically based civilization. Infrastructure projects take into consideration the risk posed by ground displacement (e.g., seismicity, geological conditions and geomorphology). To address this risk, earth scientists and civil engineers employ a range of measurement technologies, such as optical/laser leveling, GNSS and, lately, SAR interferometry. Currently there is a rich source of measurement information provided in various formats that covers most of the industrialized world. Integration of this information becomes an issue that will only increase in importance in the future. This work describes a practical approach to address and validate integrated stability measurements through the development of a platform that could be easily used by a variety of groups, from geoscientists to civil engineers and also private citizens with no training in this field. The platform enables quick cross-validation between different data sources, easy detection of critical areas at all scales (from large-scale individual buildings to small-scale tectonics) and can be linked to end-users from various monitoring fields and countries for automated notifications. This work is closing the gap between the specialized monitoring work and the general public, delivering the full value of technology for societal benefits in a free and open manner. The platform is calibrated and validated by an application of SAR interferometry data to specific situations in the general area of the Romanian Carpathians and their foreland. The results demonstrate an interplay between anthropogenically induced changes and high-amplitude active tectono–sedimentary processes creating rapid regional and local topographic variations.

Location, specific topography, and hydrographic setting together with climate change and strong anthropogenic pressure are the main factors shaping the biogeochemical functioning and thus also the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. The recent decades have brought significant changes in the Baltic Sea. First, the rising nutrient loads from land in the second half of the 20th century led to eutrophication and spreading of hypoxic and anoxic areas, for which permanent stratification of the water column and limited ventilation of deep-water layers made favourable conditions. Since the 1980s the nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea have been continuously decreasing. This, however, has so far not resulted in significant improvements in oxygen availability in the deep regions, which has revealed a slow response time of the system to the reduction of the land-derived nutrient loads. Responsible for that is the low burial efficiency of phosphorus at anoxic conditions and its remobilization from sediments when conditions change from oxic to anoxic. This results in a stoichiometric excess of phosphorus available for organic-matter production, which promotes the growth of N2-fixing cyanobacteria and in turn supports eutrophication. This assessment reviews the available and published knowledge on the biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea. In its content, the paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, and P) external loads, their transformations in the coastal zone, changes in organic-matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability), and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. In addition to that, this paper focuses also on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure and functioning of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes. This comprehensive assessment allowed also for identifying knowledge gaps and future research needs in the field of marine biogeochemistry in the Baltic Sea.

One of the key challenges for risk, vulnerability, and resilience research is how to address the role of risk perceptions and how perceptions influence behaviour. It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever richer information available on natural and human-made hazards (flood, drought, etc.). The current fragmentation of the field makes it an uphill battle to cross-validate the results of existing independent case studies. This, in turn, hinders comparability and transferability across scales and contexts and hampers recommendations for policy and risk management. To improve the ability of researchers in the field to work together and build cumulative knowledge, we question whether we could agree on (1) a common list of minimal requirements to compare studies, (2) shared criteria to address context-specific aspects of countries and regions, and (3) a selection of questions allowing for comparability and long-term monitoring. To map current research practices and move in this direction, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory in nature and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the comparison of results and an accumulation of evidence. While the diversity of approaches is an asset, the robustness of methods is an investment. Surveyors report a tendency to reproduce past research design choices but express frustration with this trend, hinting at a turning point. To bridge the persisting gaps, we offer several recommendations for future studies, particularly grounding research design in theory, improving the formalisation of methods, and formally comparing theories and constructs, methods and explanations while collecting the most-in-use themes and variables and controlling for the most-in-use explanations.

To capture the effects of mesoscale turbulent eddies, coarse-resolution Eulerian ocean models resort to tracer diffusion parameterizations. Likewise, the effect of eddy dispersion needs to be parameterized when computing Lagrangian pathways using coarse flow fields. Dispersion in Lagrangian simulations is traditionally parameterized by random walks, equivalent to diffusion in Eulerian models. Beyond random walks, there is a hierarchy of stochastic parameterizations, where stochastic perturbations are added to Lagrangian particle velocities, accelerations, or hyper-accelerations. These parameterizations are referred to as the first, second and third order "Markov models" (Markov-N), respectively. Most previous studies investigate these parameterizations in two-dimensional setups, often restricted to the ocean surface. On the other hand, the few studies that investigated Lagrangian dispersion parameterizations in three dimensions, where dispersion is largely restricted to neutrally buoyant surfaces, have focused only on random walk (Markov-0) dispersion. Here, we present a three-dimensional isoneutral formulation of the Markov-1 model. We also implement an anisotropic, shear-dependent formulation of random walk dispersion, originally formulated as a Eulerian diffusion parameterization. Random walk dispersion and Markov-1 are compared using an idealized setup as well as more realistic coarse and coarsened (50 km) ocean model output. While random walk dispersion and Markov-1 produce similar particle distributions over time when using our ocean model output, Markov-1 yields Lagrangian trajectories that better resemble trajectories from eddy-resolving simulations. Markov-1 also yields a smaller spurious dianeutral flux.

This collaborative article discusses the opportunities and challenges of adopting integrated, coordinated, open, and networked (ICON) principles in atmospheric sciences. From the global nature of the atmosphere, there has always been a need for atmospheric science to be an ICON science. With the help of evolving technology, it is possible to go further in implementing and spreading the ICON principles for productive global collaboration. In particular, technology transfer and applications could be approached with reproducibility in mind, and data-sharing infrastructure could enable easier and better international collaboration. There are, however, various challenges in following the ICON principles in the acquisition, quality control, and maintenance of data, and the publication of results in a systematic way. Moreover, the extent of such issues varies geographically and hence poses different challenges to implementing ICON principles. In this commentary article, we briefly state our perspectives on the state of ICON, challenges we have met, and future opportunities. Furthermore, we describe how atmospheric science researchers have benefited from these collaborative multi-dimensional approaches that fulfill the core goal of ICON.

Multiphase flow is important for many natural and engineered processes in subsurface geoscience. Pore-scale multiphase flow dynamics are commonly characterized by an average balance of driving forces. However, significant local variability in this balance may exist inside natural, heterogeneous porous materials, such as rocks and soils. Here, we investigate multiphase flow in heterogeneous rocks with different wetting properties using fast laboratory-based 4D X-ray imaging. The mixed-wet dynamics were characterized by displacement rates that differed over orders of magnitude between directly neighboring pores. While conventional understanding predicted strongly capillary-dominated conditions, our analysis suggests that viscous forces played a key role in these dynamics, facilitated by a complex interplay between the mixed-wettability and the pore structure. These dynamics highlight the need for further studies on the fundamental controls on multiphase flow in geomaterials, which is crucial to design, e.g., groundwater remediation and subsurface CO2 storage operations.

Lava tubes on Mars hold exciting potential for the preservation of biosignatures, which may survive on geological timescales in these isolated, stable environments. To support the development of future astrobiological mission concepts, we turn to terrestrial lava tubes, host to a variety of microbial communities and secondary minerals. Following a multidisciplinary sampling protocol, we retrieved biological, molecular, and mineralogical data from several lava tubes in Iceland. We report on blue-colored copper-rich secondary minerals and their associated bacterial communities using a multi-method approach, and an amalgam of 16S rRNA gene sequencing, Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy data sets. We found numerous bacterial genera known for their high metal resistance and ability to survive in low-nutrient environments. Both are characteristics to be expected for any potential life in Martian lava tubes, and should be considered when checking for contaminants in Mars mission preparations. Associated with the microbial mats, we identified several types of copper-rich secondary minerals, indicating localized copper enrichments in the groundwater, possibly stemming from overlying ash deposits and nearby hyaloclastite formations. Molecular analysis revealed carotenoid signals preserved within the copper speleothems. If found in Martian lava tubes, blue copper-rich mineral precipitates would be deserving of astrobiological investigation, as they have potential to preserve biosignatures and harbor life. Plain Language Summary Subterranean lava tubes on Mars are exciting locations to study in the potential discovery of signs of life outside of Earth, as the surface of Mars does not have conditions conducive to the preservation of life as we know it. In order to better study these Martian environments we look first to comparable lava tubes on Earth. Within Icelandic lava tubes we found blue-colored copper minerals, host to microbial life. The microbes that thrive in these caves are able to withstand extreme conditions, and leave behind detectable molecular traces indicative of life, a type of biosignature. Using a variety of tools and techniques, we describe the nature of the blue minerals and their provenance, the role of the microbial populations within them, and the value of the molecular traces as biosignatures. We discuss the potential for such minerals and microbes in Martian lava tubes, and how we might successfully sample them in future missions to Mars.

We conducted in situ high-pressure and -temperature X-ray diffraction measurements of a pyrolitic mantle material up to 4480 K at 122–166 GPa in a laser-heated diamond anvil cell. Results demonstrate that the phase transition between bridgmanite and post-perovskite occurs in pyrolite within the lowermost mantle pressure range even at >4000 K. It suggests the ubiquitous occurrence of post-perovskite above the core-mantle boundary, which may be consistent with recent high-quality seismology data that non-observations of D” reflections are exceptions. Combining with earlier experiments performed at and below the normal lower-mantle geotherm, our data show that the bridgmanite + post-perovskite two-phase region is ∼5 GPa thick and the dP/dT slope of the boundary is +6.5 ± 2.2 MPa/K, slightly smaller than previous theoretical calculations in MgSiO3. The global presence of rheologically weak post-perovskite at the bottom of the mantle has profound implications in seismology, geodynamics, and heat transfer from the core.

The formation of new subduction zones is a key element of plate tectonics and the Wilson cycle, and many different controlling mechanisms have been proposed to initiate subduction. Here, we provide a brief overview of the known scenarios of subduction initiation in intra-oceanic and ocean-continent tectonic settings. Intra-oceanic subduction is most commonly associated with mechanical heterogeneities within the oceanic lithosphere, such as pre-existing fracture zones, spreading ridges, and transform faults. Numerous and well-recognized examples of new active subduction zones formed in intra-oceanic environments during the Cenozoic, suggesting that the initiation of ocean-ocean subduction must be a routine process that occurs “easily and frequently” in the mode of plate tectonics currently operating on Earth. On the contrary, the most traditional mechanisms for the establishment of classic self-sustaining ocean-continent subduction—passive margin collapse and subduction transference—are surprisingly rare in observations and difficult to reproduce in numerical models. Two alternative scenarios—polarity reversal and lateral propagation-induced subduction initiation—are in contrast much better documented in nature and experimentally. However, switching of subduction polarity due to arc-continent collision and lateral transmission of subducting plate boundaries are both inextricably linked to pre-existing intra-oceanic convergence. We, therefore, conclude that the onset of classic ocean-continent subduction zones is possible only through the transition from a former intra-oceanic subduction system. This transition is likely facilitated by the ductile damage accumulation and stress concentration across the aging continental margin. From this perspective, the future closure of the Atlantic Ocean can be viewed as an archetypal example of the role of transitional process between intra-oceanic subduction (Lesser Antilles) and the development of a new subduction zone at a passive continental margin (eastern North America)., Frontiers in Earth Science, 10, ISSN:2296-6463

Because of its pronounced fresh signature, the properties of the northward-flowing Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Hence, understanding modifications of AAIW along its path is important. Here, we analyze AAIW changes along its path in the Caribbean Sea and assess whether vertical fluxes from background turbulence and from double-diffusive mixing in thermohaline staircases can explain these variations. We deduce the occurrence rate of staircases (7%) and estimate the flux ratio (Formula presented.) from Argo float profiles. In combination with vertical fluxes from background turbulence, these values are used in a steady-state advection-diffusion model to estimate the effective diffusivity of salt that arises from double diffusion (Formula presented.). This value for (Formula presented.) is similar to observed values (Schmitt, 2005, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1108678), implying the observed modification of AAIW in the Caribbean Sea may be attributable primarily to vertical mixing in the region itself.

Tree restoration is an effective way to store atmospheric carbon and mitigate climate change. However, large-scale tree-cover expansion has long been known to increase evaporation, leading to reduced local water availability and streamflow. More recent studies suggest that increased precipitation, through enhanced atmospheric moisture recycling, can offset this effect. Here we calculate how 900 million hectares of global tree restoration would impact evaporation and precipitation using an ensemble of data-driven Budyko models and the UTrack moisture recycling dataset. We show that the combined effects of directly enhanced evaporation and indirectly enhanced precipitation create complex patterns of shifting water availability. Large-scale tree-cover expansion can increase water availability by up to 6% in some regions, while decreasing it by up to 38% in others. There is a divergent impact on large river basins: some rivers could lose 6% of their streamflow due to enhanced evaporation, while for other rivers, the greater evaporation is counterbalanced by more moisture recycling. Several so-called hot spots for forest restoration could lose water, including regions that are already facing water scarcity today. Tree restoration significantly shifts terrestrial water fluxes, and we emphasize that future tree-restoration strategies should consider these hydrological effects.

We conducted simulations with a 4-km resolution for Hurricane Joaquin in 2015 using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model. The model data are used to study stratospheric gravity waves (GWs) generated by the hurricane and how they correlate with hurricane intensity. The simulation results show spiral GWs propagating upward and anticlockwise away from the hurricane center. GWs with vertical wavelengths up to 14 km are generated. We find that GW activity is more frequent and intense during hurricane intensification than during weakening, particularly for the most intense GW activity. There are significant correlations between the change of stratospheric GW intensity and hurricane intensity. Therefore, the emergence of intensive stratospheric GW activity may be considered a useful proxy for identifying hurricane intensification.

Antarctica underwent a complex evolution over the course of the Cenozoic, which influenced the history of the Earth’s climate system. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary is a divide of this history when the ice-free ‘greenhouse world’ transitioned to the ‘icehouse’ with the glaciation of Antarctica. Prior to this, Antarctica experienced warm climates, peaking during Early Eocene when tropical-like conditions existed at the margins of the continent where geological evidence is present. Climate signals in the geological record show that the climate then cooled, but not enough to allow the existence of significant ice until the latest Eocene. Glacial deposits from several areas around the continental margin indicate that ice was present by the earliest Oligocene. This matches the major oxygen isotope positive shift captured by marine records. On land, vegetation was able to persist, but the thermophylic plants of the Eocene were replaced by shrubby vegetation with the southern beech Nothofagus, mosses and ferns, which survived in tundra-like conditions. Coupled climate–ice sheet modelling indicates that changing levels of atmospheric CO2 controlled Antarctica’s climate and the onset of glaciation. Factors such as mountain uplift, vegetation changes, ocean gateway opening and orbital forcing all played a part in cooling the polar climate, but only when CO2 levels reached critical thresholds was Antarctica tipped into an icy glacial world.

Science diplomacy has been instrumental in facilitating cooperation in the Arctic region, yet through the projection of vast hydrocarbon potential in the region, it has also served to undermine the major transformation necessary in Arctic decision-making towards the goals of climate governance. This article surveys the translation of science from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports (i.e. the CARA study and Factsheet 2008-3049) on Arctic oil and gas and its transformation into common knowledge within Arctic discourse through repetition by the agents in between and its subsequent adoption into Arctic policy documents. In this process, we interrogate the production of the science underpinning US science diplomacy and the influence of this science on international Arctic discourse and policy use science diplomacy. This paper contributes to the literature of science diplomacy in the Arctic by examining the contributions of the USGS to Arctic policy discourses and its impact on Arctic governance at the nexus of science diplomacy on climate and energy.