Search

Using an extensive survey that addresses risk factors faced by the population in the shantytowns (favelas) of Fortaleza, Brazil, the aim of this paper is to study risk-taking behavior by youth, focusing on drug use and teenage pregnancy. The paper analyzes the impact of factors such as exposure to mass media, the existence of support networks, self-esteem, and the occurrence of violence at home and in the neighborhood, on the probability of risk-taking behavior. A bivariate probit model is estimated. The findings indicate that reliance on support networks and exposure to mass media are associated with a lower probability of either type of risk behavior. Living in a violent home increases drug consumption. Race does not have a significant impact on either type of behavior.

The authors investigate the extent and nature of distortions in the labor market in the Republic of Cote d'Ivoire by using quantile regression analysis on employer-employee data from the manufacturing sector. They find that the labor markets in Cote d'Ivoire do not seem to be much distorted. Unions may influence employment through tenure but do not seem to influence wages directly except for vulnerable minorities that seem protected by unions. Establishment-size wage effects are pronounced and highest for white-collar workers. This may be explained by the efficiency wage theory, so that, even in the absence of unions, segmentation and inefficiencies will still be present as long as firms seek to retain their employees by paying wages above the market clearing level. The inefficiency arising from establishment-size wage effects can be mitigated by education. Furthermore, the authors find that the premium to education is highly significantly positive only for higher education, and not for basic education, indicating that educational policies should also focus on higher education.

This paper aims to identify the major drop-out and push-out factors that lead to school abandonment in an urban surrounding-the shantytowns of Fortaleza, Northeast Brazil. The authors use an extensive survey addressing risk factors faced by the population in these neighborhoods, which cover both in-school and out-of-school youth of both genders. They focus on the role of early parenthood, child labor, and poverty in pushing teenagers out of school. The potential endogeneity of some of the determinants is dealt with in the empirical analysis. The authors take advantage of the rich set of variables available and apply an instrumental variables approach. Early parenthood is instrumented with the age declared by the youngsters as the ideal age to start having sexual relationships. Work is instrumented using the declared reservation wage (minimum salary acceptable to work). Results indicate that early parenthood has a strong impact of driving teenagers out of school. Extreme poverty is another factor lowering school attendance, as children who have suffered hunger at some point in their lives are less likely to attend school. In this particular urban context, working does not necessarily have a detrimental effect on school attendance, which could be linked to the fact that dropping out of school leads most often to inactivity and not to work.

Of the 1.6 million Haitian youth aged 15-24, only 13 percent are content with their lives. More than half of 20-year-olds have not completed secondary education and nearly half of youth in the labor market are unemployed. This paper investigates protective and risk factors predisposing youth to positive and negative behaviors. These factors, including poverty, gender, education, labor market, migration, family, health, and violence, are examined by using statistics and probability models based on Haiti's first household living conditions survey. Key findings show that female youth need special attention because they are more likely than their male peers to drop out of school and to be unemployed or inactive. Role models, guidance, expectations, and contacts in the form of parents or household heads are decisive factors in keeping youth in school, and to some extent, in their finding employment. In addition, domestic migration has a negative impact on the probability of being unemployed or inactive (positive self-selection), while marriage, drug abuse, and domestic violence increase the probability of dropping out of school.

This paper addresses three areas of the rural labor market-employment, labor wages, and agriculture producer incomes. Findings show that the poor allocate a lower share of their labor to farm sectors than the nonpoor do, but still around 70 percent work in agriculture, and the vast majority of rural workers are engaged in the informal sector. When examining nonfarm employment in rural Argentina, findings suggest that key determinants of access to employment and productivity in nonfarm activities are education, skills, land access, location, and gender. Employment analyses show that women have higher probability than men to participate in rural nonfarm activities and they are not confined to low-return employment. Moreover, workers living in poorer regions with land access are less likely to be employed in the nonfarm sector. There is strong evidence that educated people have better prospects in both the farm and nonfarm sectors, and that education is an important determinant of employment in the better-paid nonfarm activities. Labor wage analyses reveal that labor markets pay lower returns to poorer than to richer women and returns to education are increasing with increased level of completed education and income level. And nonfarm income and employment are highly correlated with gender, skills, household size, and education. This analysis also shows a rather heterogeneous impact pattern of individual characteristics across the income distribution, but education is important for all levels of income. Agricultural producer income analyses reveal that producers' income monotonically increases with land size and with completed education level, and positively correlates with road access and use of electricity, fertilizer, and irrigation. Finally, farms operated by women are slightly more productive than farms operated by men.

Rural poverty remains a crucial part of the poverty picture in Argentina. This paper used a rural dataset collected by the World Bank in 2003. Findings show that extreme income poverty in rural areas reached 39 percent of the people or 200,000-250,000 indigent families. These families tend to: be large, and young, and to escape from poverty as they mature and children leave the household (life cycle); live largely in dispersed areas where basic service provision is often weak and delivery is difficult (in particular school attendance beyond 11 years of age falls off very rapidly compared with grouped rural or urban areas); and be more likely to be small landholders than landless laborers. The structure of poverty in rural Argentina shows that larger households are poorer than smaller households, female-headed households are poorer than male-headed households, young households/household heads are poorer than older households/household heads, the poor tend to work more in the informal sector, and a greater share of those engaged in agriculture are poor. However, poverty is by no means strictly an agricultural problem. Furthermore, the deepest poverty is among the poorly educated and young household heads with children. Without interventions to improve their opportunities and assets, their plight is likely to worsen.

The authors review the recent literature on crime and violence in Latin America and the Caribbean and present a broad overview of the main ideas and empirical findings. They provide estimates of the magnitude of the problem, trends, and the manifestations of crime and violence in Latin America. They also discuss the ways in which violence affects development, the root causes of violence, and the empirical evidence on the determinants of crime. The authors conclude by stressing that preventive measures and innovative social policies are efficient and underutilized strategies to address the problem and call for both more research and operational experimentation.

This brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study, entitled Economic impacts of professional training in the informal sector : the case of the labor force training program in Cote d'Ivoire, conducted in 1994 focusing on participants who started in 1999 in Cote d'Ivoire. The study observed the impact of the labor force training program (PAFPA) developed for the informal sector in Cote d'Ivoire on the individual and business level. Overall, the program does not have a significant positive impact on revenue. There are positive economic impacts as a result of training received for some groups, namely women, the agricultural and electronics sectors, firms employing 1 to 3 individuals, and firms with 10 or more employees.

This paper analyzes poverty in rural and semi-urban areas of Mexico (localities with less than 2,500 and 15,000 inhabitants, respectively) and provides guidance on a social agenda and poverty alleviation strategy for rural Mexico. The analyses are based on INIGH and ENE data sets for 1992-2002. Monetary extreme poverty affected 42 percent of the rural dwellers in dispersed rural areas and 21 percent in semi-urban areas in 2002, slightly less than one decade earlier. Most of the rural poor live in dispersed rural areas and 13.2 million people live in poverty in rural Mexico with less than 15,000 inhabitants. It is disproportionately a feature of households whose main job is in the agricultural sector, as self-employed farmers or rural laborers, and that have at most a primary education. However, the incidence of extreme rural poverty has declined since 1996 but at a slower pace than the decline in urban poverty. Hence, the rural-urban poverty gap increased in recent years and in some places extreme poverty is at least four times higher in rural than in urban areas. Moreover, not only is the income gap in urban areas increasing, but also the gap between richer and poorer segments of the population in the rural areas is growing. Finally, the gap between rich and poor regions is still large.

The author addresses the labor markets in rural and semi-urban Mexico. The empirical analyses show that non-farm income shares increase with overall consumption levels and, also, with time. Rural-dwellers in lower quintiles of the consumption distribution tend to earn a larger share of their nonagricultural incomes from wage labor activities. For the poorest, low-productivity wage labor activities are important. The quantile wage regression analysis for rural Mexico shows a rather heterogeneous impact pattern of individual characteristics across the wage distribution on monthly wages. The author's findings reveal that education is key to earning higher wages, and that workers in more dispersed rural areas earn less than their peers in semi-urban rural areas (localities with less than 15,000 inhabitants). The rural non-farm sector is heterogeneous and includes a great variety of activities and productivity levels across non-farm jobs. Moreover it can reduce poverty in a couple of distinct but qualitatively important ways in rural Mexico. The analysis of non-farm employment in rural Mexico suggests that the two key determinants of access to employment and productivity in non-farm activities are education and location.

The author analyzes the labor markets in the Northeast region of Brazil that includes Pernambuco, Bahia, and Ceara states. Her findings show a rather heterogeneous impact pattern of individual characteristics on monthly wages across the wage distribution. That is, the magnitude of the effect of a wage determinant is different depending on whether the worker is placed in the lower, median, or top of the wage distribution. The findings reveal that basic schooling matters for all four geographical areas and across the income distribution. However, poor workers are awarded lower returns than their richer peers, and in Bahia and Ceara, the poor do not obtain any returns to basic schooling. Furthermore, the impact of 5-8 or 9-11 years of education is larger than that of 1-4 years of completed education. The returns obtained by a median worker are higher in Ceara and Pernambuco than in Bahia. Finally, completed tertiary education offers the largest returns of all levels of education. The median worker receives a premium of 105, 249, and 216 percent in Ceara, Pernambuco, and Bahia, respectively. Hence, one direct policy implication is to increase the quality of education, in particular in poorer neighborhoods. Experience impacts positively on wages and it increases with age until workers reach 50 years of age. However, returns to experience are falling significantly across the wage distribution. For the poor and younger generations, experience contributes more to wages than education. The occupation of workers is important for wage determination. All workers in the included occupational groups are paid more than workers engaged in agricultural activities. Workers employed as technicians or administrators obtain the highest returns. The white/nonwhite wage disparity reveals that white workers are paid 17 percent more than their nonwhite co-workers, taking into account other characteristics. Gender disparities are large in the Northeast and heterogeneous across the wage distribution. The time spent in the current state impacts adversely on wages. That is, those that have stayed earn, on average, less than the newcomers. There are no considerable differences between male and female workers. Union membership has a positive impact on workers' wages.

Ninety-five percent of the world’s illiterate people live in developing countries, and about 70 percent are women. Female illiteracy rates are particularly high in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Niger and Burkina Faso, for example, more than 90 percent of women are illiterate. This paper presents a model of literacy. It shows that the main determinants of worldwide literacy are enrollment rates, average years of schooling of adults, and life expectancy at birth. Income has a weak nonlinear effect, negatively affecting literacy until a threshold level of per-capita income of about $2200 a year is reached and positively affecting literacy thereafter. Finally, African countries do not have a significantly higher literacy rate when controlling for other factors.

The states in the Brazilian Amazon have made progress in reducing poverty and improving social indicators in the last decade. Despite this progress, the poverty rate in the Amazon is among the highest in Brazil. As of 2000, rural poverty is the greatest challenge. In Par?, not only is the headcount poverty rate of 58.4 percent in rural areas more than 55 percent higher than headcount poverty in urban areas, but also poverty is much deeper in rural areas. The fall in infant mortality and adult illiteracy corroborate the improvement in measured income poverty. Census data from 2000 and 1991 reveal that more people left Par? than came to live in the state during the 1970s, the opposite of the 1980s. In 2000, the Gini coefficient for Par?, as in the Amazon as a whole, was 0.60. The poverty profile reveals that indigenous peoples experience a higher poverty incidence than other groups. Census 2000 data reveal that living in rural areas in Par? does not by itself affect the probability of being poor. Individual and household characteristics are more important than geographical location. The largest statistical differences in poverty reduction between rural and urban areas are found in the effect of education, sector of employment, gender, and family size. PNAD data from 2001 reveal that living in urban areas in Par? does not by itself affect the probability of falling below the poverty line in urban areas in Brazil. The strongest poverty correlates are education, experience, race, rural location, gender, and labor market association.

Breaking the intergenerational transmission of poverty requires far-reaching actions in the education sector. Widespread poverty affects both students' performance and their availability to attend school. Low-quality education leads to low income, which in turn perpetuates poverty. Furthermore, low levels of education affect growth though low labor productivity. Although Paraiba, Brazil suffers from a history of educational neglect, the state has recently made significant gains in primary enrollment; 93 percent of the children aged 7-14 are enrolled in school. However, 30 percent of the population aged 15 and older are illiterate and, unfortunately, it is not only the older generations that cannot read and write: 15 percent of children aged 10 to 15 are illiterate. However, substantial achievements in education have helped the extremely poor segment of population as much as expected. Probit analyses reveal that education attainment is the single most important poverty-reducing factor. All levels of education from primary to tertiary are significant and negatively associated with the probability of being poor.

Analyses of municipal GDP growth in Rio Grande do Norte in the Northeast of Brazil during 1970-96 reveal that the cross-section dispersion of per capita income increased over time. Although the analysis indicates some spatial dependence in income, it is small and has a downward trend, indicating that the growth path is only weakly determined by geographical links in Rio Grande do Norte. Moreover, dynamic analyses based on the Markov chain transition matrix show that the probability of a municipality moving from a poor income class to a rich class is very small and vice-versa. Municipalities located in the middle-income class have high mobility, but there is no strong evidence indicating direction. Public policy should include assisting the rural families by providing them education and training that increases their opportunities for employment. There should also be policies to assist poor and unskilled migrants to integrate fully into the modern economy in the urban areas through skill development training and education.

This paper addresses the underlying causes of problems and risks faced by poor and excluded youth of 10-24 years of age. The authors develop a survey instrument that addresses poverty in a broad sense, including hunger, early pregnancy and fatherhood, violence, crime, drug use, low levels of social capital, and low educational attainment. The authors also shed light on intergenerational transfer of risks that are considered to induce poverty. They document findings based on the survey data gathered in three poor urban neighborhoods in Fortaleza in Northeast Brazil. Their main findings show that: (i) Poor youth are at considerable risk of growing up without their father. Only 7 percent grow up with their father present in the household. (ii) The intergenerational transmission of low education attainment is at play, but it is diminishing. (iii) The risk of early pregnancy and fatherhood is large among poor and excluded youth-31 percent of the youth had their first child before age 16, triple that of the adult population. (iv) The risk of sexual abuse and violence within the household exists-6 percent of the youth answered that they had their first sexual relationship with a family member, and 13 percent grow up in households with violence. (v) The social capital levels are low-only 5 percent of the youth and 9 percent of the adults have measurable social capital. (vi) The risk of growing up in a violent neighborhood is large-59 percent of the youth claim that they live in a violent neighborhood, 80 percent feel unsafe in their neighborhood, and 50 percent feel unsafe at home.

In the northeast region of Brazil, the poverty picture of the past two decades reveals large fluctuations in the poverty level, and poverty depth. Findings based on the Brazilian annual household survey (Pesquisa Nacional de Amostra Domiciliar, PNAD) datasets from 1981-99 reveal that individual characteristics such as education, experience, and labor market association of the household head are important correlates of poverty. Taking these into account, data reveal that a Nordestino (northeasterner) is 24 percentage points more likely to fall below the indigent poverty line than other Brazilians. Analyses also reveal large differences in poverty levels by education, and these differences have increased over time. The authors observe that the probability of being poor is decreasing with increasing educational attainment. The gender of the household head does not matter for poverty, according to the poverty profile. But when the authors control for education and other individual characteristics, female-headed households have a much larger likelihood of being poor than male-headed households. Household size also matters for poverty. Larger households are more likely to experience poverty than smaller households, and the effect is concave. Moreover, households with children under age 5 appear more likely to fall below the poverty line, than families with no children below age 5. The presence of old-aged people (above 65 years) in the household is an important factor contributing to poverty reduction.

Nearly 40 percent of all Brazilians have migrated at one point and time, and in-migrants represent substantial portions of regional populations. Migration in Brazil has historically been a mechanism for adjustment to disequilibria. Poorer regions and those with fewer economic opportunities have traditionally sent migrants to more prosperous regions. As such, the southeast region, where economic conditions are most favorable, has historically received migrants from the northeast region. Migration should have benefited both regions. The southeast benefits by importing skilled and unskilled labor that makes local capital more productive. The northeast can benefit from upward pressures on wages and through remittances that migrant households return to their region of origin. The northeast of Brazil is a net sender of migrants to the southeast. In recent years a large number of people moved from the southeast to the northeast. Compared with northeast to southeast (NE-SE) migrants, southeast to northeast (SE-NE) migrants are less homogeneous regarding age, wage, and income. SE-NE migrants are on average poorer and less educated than the southeast average, while NE-SE migrants are financially better off and higher educated than the northeast average. The authors find that the predicted returns to migration are increasing with education for SE-NE migrants and decreasing for NE-SE migrants. They further observe that the returns to migration have been decreasing for NE-SE migrants and increasing for SE-NE migrants between 1995 and 1999. This finding helps explain migration dynamics in Brazil. While the predicted positive returns to migration for NE-SE migrants indicate that NE-SE migration follows in general the human capital approach to migration, the estimated lower returns to migration for SE-NE may indicate that nonmonetary factors also play a role in SE-NE migration.

In a recent paper, Fiess and Verner (2000) analyse sectoral growth in Ecuador and find significant long-run and short-run relationships between the agricultural, industrial and service sectors. They take this as evidence against the dual economy model which rules out a long-run relationship between agricultural and industrial output and show further that a more detailed picture of the growth process can be discovered, once the agricultural, industrial and service sectors are disaggregated further into intrasector components. This paper extends their initial results and provides insight from a multivariate cointegration analysis of intrasector components. The authors are able to identify three cointegrating relationships, each of which has its own meaningful economic interpretation: Two cointegration relationships capture the direct and indirect effects of the"petrolization"of the Ecuadorian economy. A third relationship clearly indicates a link between agriculture and industrial activity. Since this third cointegrating relationship seems to coincide in time with the trade liberalisation at the end of the 1980s, promoting agriculture appears to be an important way to promote sustainable economic growth in Ecuador.

The educational attainment of Brazil's labor force, has gradually increased over the past two decades. At the same time, the government has pursued a series of economic structural adjustment policies. The authors investigate how these simultaneous advances have altered the relationship between labor market earnings, and education. They find that the returns to education in the labor market, fundamentally changed between 1982, and 1998. While the returns to tertiary education increased sharply, the returns to primary education dropped by 26 percent, and those to lower secondary, by 35 percent. Moreover, the authors argue, the marginal reduction in wage inequality that occurred in this period was linked primarily to a reduction in the returns to schooling, and only secondarily, to a more equitable distribution of schooling. The findings suggest that the supply of highly skilled labor is inadequate to meet demand. That suggests a need for policy action aimed at increasing access to, and completion of tertiary education. Increasing the supply of highly skilled labor, would improve prospects for both economic growth, and reduce wage inequality.

Evidence from Ghanaian manufacturing confirms that unions have an asymmetrical effect on wages: they benefit mainly the lower end of the wage distribution. The evidence also confirms the presence of structural differences between union and non-union segments: workers in the union sector of manufacturing earn more than workers in the non-union sector. Blunch and Verner analyze the determinants of earnings in Ghanaian manufacturing, focusing on the impact of unions in terms of the "union relative wage effect" and the possible asymmetries of this effect across the earnings distribution. They find evidence of a union relative wage effect occurring through two distinct channels. First, there is a direct effect through individual union membership, the standard "union premium" well known from the empirical literature on unions. Second, there is a spillover effect to non-union members. The authors also find evidence of an additional union effect that comes through firm-specific training. They confirm their conjecture that there is an asymmetry in the union relative wage effect: unions benefit mainly at the lower end of the wage distribution. This finding is in line with earlier research, which generally finds that unions reduce income inequality and wage discrimination. An evaluation of the non-union subsample using the estimated union wage structure confirms the presence of structural differences between the union and non-union segments of Ghanaian manufacturing: for given characteristics, a worker in the union sector earns more than a worker in the non-union sector. This paper - a joint product of Human Development 3, Africa Technical Families, and the Economic Policy Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to understand the links between education, training, earnings, and institutional arrangements. The authors may be contacted at nblunch@worldbank.org or dverner@worldbank.org.

The link between poverty and child labor has traditionally been regarded a well established fact. Recent research, however, has questioned the validity of this link, claiming that poverty is not a main determinant of child labor. Starting from a premise that child labor is necessarily harmful, we analyze the determinants of harmful child labor, viewed as child labor that directly conflicts with the human capital accumulation of the child in an attempt to identify the most vulnerable groups, thus possibly enabling appropriate actions to be taken by policy makers. We reinstate the positive relationship between poverty and child labor, a conjecture that has been questioned by recent litterature. Further, we find evidence of a gender gap in child labor linked to poverty, since girls as a group as well as across urban, rural and poverty sub-samples consistently are found to be more likely to engage in harmful child labor than boys. The established gender gap need not necessarily imply discrimination but rather reflect cultural norms. A further exploration of this issue seems to be a potentially fruitful avenue for further research. The last main finding is that there exist structural differences in the processes underlying harmful child labor in Ghana across gender, across rural/urban location as well as across poverty quintiles of households

The authors analyze the determinants of literacy and earnings in Ghana. They link literacy and earnings with various other factors, including age, gender, family educational background, distance to school, and income. Literacy and age are negatively correlated, suggesting that efforts to strengthen the supply and quality of basic education programs in recent years have succeeded in raising literacy rates. Parents' education is positively associated with literacy. Distance to the nearest primary school, residence in a rural area, and poverty are negatively associated with literacy. Functional literacy appears to be a prerequisite for entering the labor market, which may partly explain the lack of returns to education other than middle school and technical and professional training. The policy implications of this study: Basic education and literacy programs should target girls and poorer households, especially in rural areas.

To analyze what determines wages and productivity in Zimbabwe, the author analyzes an employer/employee data-set from Zimbabwe's manufacturing sector. The author finds that: * Formal education, training, and experience positively affect wages and productivity positively. * Women are paid roughly 37 percent less than men although they are not measurably less productive. * There is no strong indication of ethnic discrimination among employees, but Europeans are being paid more in larger firms, although they are marginally less productive than workers of African origin. * The wage premium for workers who completed secondary school does not necessarily reflect greater productivity but may indicate a shortage of educated workers. * Workers trained in-house earn more although in-house training does not instantly affect productivity. Training by outside trainers does improve productivity but is not rewarded with higher wages. * Apprentices are paid more than non-apprentices. Perhaps an apprentice diploma serves as a screening device, when hiring. * Temporary workers are more productive than permanent workers, perhaps hoping to get a permanent contract. * Union members earn less than non-union members despite being more productive. Perhaps union members fight more to have skills upgraded than for wage increases. * Larger exporting firms are marginally less productive and pay marginally less than the average firm, but ar more productive than smaller firms (and their wages match productivity). Workers in larger woods and metals are paid less than workers in smaller firms, although they are not less productive. * Exporting firms benefit more than employees do from trade openness and greater productivity. * Foreign-owned firms are more productive than other firms (perhaps because of new technology). * Firms that employ more expatriates tend to pay more. The more expatriates there are in metals firms, the more productive the employees are, perhaps because the expatriates bring knowledge about new technology to the enterprise. * Employees in the metal and textile sectors are paid more than those in the food sector, but employees in metals are less productive than employees from other sectors.

The authors analyze sectoral growth in Ecuador, using multivariate co-integration analysis. They find significant long-run relationships between the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors. Moreover, they are able to derive dynamic sector models that combine the short-run links between the three sectors with long-run dynamics. When disaggregate the three sectors into their intra-sectoral components, they discover many interesting relationships that contribute to a better understanding of inter- and intra-sectoral dynamics in the context of Ecuadorian economic growth. Their findings suggest that more attention should be paid to inter-dependencies in sectoral growth, since an improved understanding of inter-sectoral dynamics may facilitate the implementation of policy aimed at increasing economic growth in Ecuador. There appears to be no direct link between the oil sector, and the non-oil industrial sectors. But strong evidence supports co-integration between the oil industry, and financial services, as well as between the oil industry, and public services. This means, among other things, that the oil industry is likely to affect other sectors through the financial sector, the public sector, or both.

The link between poverty, and child labor has traditionally been regarded as well established. But recent research has questioned the validity of this link, claiming that poverty is not a main determinant of child labor. Starting from the premise that child labor is not necessarily harmful, the authors analyze the determinants of harmful child labor, viewed as child labor that directly conflicts with children's accumulation of human capital, in an effort to identify the most vulnerable groups. Identifying these groups might enable policymakers to take appropriate action. The authors estimate the positive relationship between poverty, and child labor. Moreover, they find evidence of a gender gap in child labor, linked to poverty. Girls as a group (as well as across urban, rural, and poverty sub-samples) are consistently found to be more likely to engage in harmful child labor, than boys. This gender gap may reflect cultural norms (an issue that calls for further research). The incidence of child labor increases with age, especially for girls. In Ghana, there are structural differences - across gender, between rural and urban locations, and across poverty quintiles of households - in the processes underlying child labor.

In considering how the euro will affect Sub-Saharan Africa, the authors examine the transmission channels through which the euro could affect economies in the region. They examine the risks and opportunities the euro presents for Sub-Saharan African countries. They especially examine the effects from the trade channel, through changes in European economic activity and the real exchange rate. Because of the relatively low income elasticity for primary commodities - which is what Sub-Saharan Africa mainly exports - an increase in activity in Europe is considered to have a marginal impact on Africa. Exchange rate regimes and geographical trade patterns point to large differences in exposure to changes in the real exchange rate. Capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa can be affected through portfolio shifts or through changes in foreign direct investment. Changes in competitiveness in Europe are not expected to influence foreign direct investment, so the euro is not expected to affect foreign direct investment significantly. Portfolio diversification could increase greatly. But Sub-Saharan Africa is not expected to realize the increased potential from portfolio diversification because of its severely underdeveloped domestic capital markets. It is vitally important that Sub-Saharan African countries strengthen their financial integration into global markets. How the euro will affect such parts of the financial system as banks and debt and reserve management varies across countries. Generally the effect is expected to be limited.

The authors analyze and compare sectoral growth in three African economies - Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana and Zimbabwe - since 1965. They extend the classic dual economy - the agriculture and industry sectors - by adding the services sector. For all the three countries, they find at least one statistically significant long-run relationship for sectoral GDP. This indicates a large degree of interdependence in long-run growth among the three sectors. This also provides evidence against the basic dual economy model, which implies that a long-run relationship cannot exist between agricultural and industrial output. Analysis of the impulse response and analysis of short-run sectoral growth support the results on the interdependence of sectoral growth. Both imply that a positive link exists between growth in industry and growth in agriculture. Their findings contradict the literature on the dual economy - and suggest that more attention should be paid to inter-sectoral dynamics and dependencies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Why? Because an adverse shock in, say, agriculture after a drought is likely to have an adverse impact on the other economic sectors. Policymakers should try to accommodate not only the initial shock in agriculture but also its adverse effects in other sector. They find that focusing mainly on industry was not optimal policy in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Zimbabwe. For maximum economy-wide growth, it would have been better to balance policies to include all three sectors: agriculture, industry, and services.

The author uses a unique data set (combining information about individual workers with information about the firms employing them) to jointly estimate production functions and wage equations. This approach allows her not only to assess the marginal impact on wages of demographic and other characteristics but also to compare how these variables affect productivity among various groups of workers. Among her findings: 1) Female employees are paid less than male employees, but this negative wage premium does not reflect commensurately lower productivity. 2) Employees' experience is reflected equally in wages and in productivity differentials over the worker's life cycle. Wages and productivity both increase, but at a decreasing rate. 3) The more training and education workers have, the higher their wages and the greater their productivity. 4) Productivity differences can be demonstrated for five levels of education completed. The productivity gap is greater than the wage gap. 5) Returns to education are similar across gender, sector, and level of unionization, but they are lower for unskilled workers than for skilled workers. 6) Training supplied by outside providers (as opposed to in-house training) is associated with higher wages but appears to have no (immediate) impact on productivity. 7) Trade union members' wages are in line with productivity. Both wages and productivity are higher for union members than for non-union members.

There is little available information about what determines money wages in Sub-Saharan Africa--or indeed about whether there is a stable relationship between wages, productivity, GDP (gross domestic product), inflation, activity in the informal sector, policy changes, and unemployment. In studying how wages in Zimbabwe are affected by short- and long-run changes in variables, the author asks: Are wages affected by prices, unemployment, increased productivity, economic activity, or policy changes? Does a macro wage curve exist? Did structural adjustment cause a structural change in labor markets? She finds that a macro wage curve does exist, so wages are flexible both generally and in the manufacturing sector. So, the labor market is able to adjust to both positive and negative shocks. The main cause of falling real wages in Zimbabwe is reduced economic activity. In the short term, wages are affected by changes in the unemployment rate. They are also affected positively by increases in productivity, prices, and economic activity. The forecasting performance of the wage determination models shows that they are valid after the implementation of structural adjustment in 1991.

There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop comprehensive tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and sub-national-level dynamic computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. We find that, despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers may reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit.

Este artículo tiene el objetivo de identificar los principales factores que conducen a la deserción escolar en un entorno urbano, en concreto las favelas de Fortaleza, al noreste de Brasil. Utilizamos una extensa encuesta centrada en los factores de riesgo a los que se enfrenta la población de estos barrios y dirigida a jóvenes de ambos sexos, tanto escolarizados como no escolarizados. El papel de la paternidad temprana, el trabajo infantil y la pobreza como impulsores de la deserción escolar de los adolescentes es objeto de una particular atención. La endogeneidad potencial de algunos de los factores determinantes se trata en el análisis empírico. Aprovechamos el rico conjunto de variables disponible y aplicamos un método basado en variables instrumentales. Para la paternidad temprana se usa como instrumento la edad declarada por los jóvenes como la edad ideal para empezar a tener relaciones sexuales; para el trabajo se usa como instrumento el salario de reserva declarado (el salario mínimo considerado aceptable para trabajar). Los resultados indican que la paternidad temprana tiene un efecto grande en términos de la no escolarización de los adolescentes. La pobreza extrema es otro factor que disminuye la asistencia a la escuela, ya que los niños que en algún momento de su vida padecen hambre tienen menores probabilidades de asistir al colegio. En este contexto urbano en particular el trabajo no tiene forzosamente un efecto perjudicial en la asistencia al colegio, lo que podría asociarse al hecho de que el abandono escolar lleva con mayor frecuencia a la inactividad y no al trabajo, dada la escasez de oportunidades de empleo; además, las restricciones de liquidez podrían atenuarse para aquellos cuyos ingresos laborales permiten sufragar los gastos escolares.

Realizing the potential of Latin America and the Caribbean's (LAC) youth is essential not only to their well-being, but also to the long-term welfare of the whole region. Young people's families, communities, and governments as well as private, nonprofit, and international organizations, have a responsibility to help youth reach their potential. There have been many successes but also important failures. How to build on the successes and correct the failures is the subject of this report. This book has two objectives: to identify the at-risk youth in LAC, and to provide evidence-based guidance to policy makers in LAC countries that will help them to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of their youth investments. The book concludes that governments can be more effective in preventing young people from engaging in risky behavior in the first place and also in assisting those who already are engaged in negative behavior. To support governments in this endeavor, the book provides a set of tools to inform and guide policy makers as they reform and implement programs for at-risk youth.

Adapting to climate change is not a new phenomenon for the Arab world. For thousands of years, the people in Arab countries have coped with the challenges of climate variability by adapting their survival strategies to changes in rainfall and temperature. Their experience has contributed significantly to the global knowledge on climate change and adaptation. But over the next century global climatic variability is predicted to increase, and Arab countries may well experience unprecedented extremes in climate. Temperatures may reach new highs, and in most places there may be a risk of less rainfall. Under these circumstances, Arab countries and their citizens will once again need to draw on their long experience of adapting to the environment to address the new challenges posed by climate change. This report prepared through a consultative process with Government and other stakeholders in the Arab world assesses the potential effects of climate change on the Arab region and outlines possible approaches and measures to prepare for its consequences. It offers ideas and suggestions for Arab policy makers as to what mitigating actions may be needed in rural and urban settings to safeguard key areas such as health, water, agriculture, and tourism. The report also analyzes the differing impacts of climate change, with special attention paid to gender, as a means of tailoring strategies to address specific vulnerabilities. The socioeconomic impact of climate change will likely vary from country to country, reflecting a country's coping capacity and its level of development. Countries that are wealthier and more economically diverse are generally expected to be more resilient. The report suggests that countries and households will need to diversify their production and income generation, integrate adaptation into all policy making and activities, and ensure a sustained national commitment to address the social, economic, and environmental consequences of climate variability. With these coordinated efforts, the Arab world can, as it has for centuries, successfully adapt and adjust to the challenges of a changing climate.

This Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World is presents detailed case studies on the impacts of climate change in the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen that were summarized. The Arab region is already being impacted by climate change through more frequent cyclones, floods, and prolonged droughts. Thousands of rural producers have seen their crops and herds devastated by extreme conditions, and have been forced to abandon their traditional way of life and migrate to crowded urban areas. Those who stay behind in rural areas struggle to cope with shortages of food and water. Climate change affects countries' economies and households through a variety of channels. Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns affect agricultural yields of both rainfed and irrigated crops, and thus global and local food markets. Adaptation is a process that will take place over decades as new information makes policy makers reevaluate their climate vulnerabilities. Still, by seizing the opportunity to act now and act together, the Arab region can not only meet the immense challenges of climate change but advance the development of its entire people.

This report assesses climate risks and opportunities and proposes actions. It provides a synthesis of evidence of climate variability and change, impacts, and uncertainties associated with climate change that may affect Tunisia s water, land, agriculture, and coastal zones. The report then provides a detailed analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on food security and gross domestic product (GDP) as well as on local populations looking in particular at seven governorates. The report goes on to discuss possible policy options for reducing human vulnerability and for better adapting to climate variability and change. The report provides guidance to policy makers in Tunisia in three ways. First, it provides a Framework for Action on Climate Change Adaptation, represented by an adaptation pyramid. Second, it puts forward a typology of policy approaches that are relevant to the region in order to facilitate the formulation of effective policy responses by decision makers. Finally, a matrix is provided, which outlines key policy recommendations. Actions align with the World Bank s 2012 Interim Strategy Note (ISN) for Tunisia, which guides the World Bank investments in Tunisia over the next two years and is focused on three main areas of intervention: (1) sustainable growth and job creation, (2) the promotion of social and economic inclusion by improving access to basic services for underserved communities and improving the efficiency of social safety net programs, and (3) strengthening governance through improved access to public information as the basis for increased social accountability and transparency., En Tunisie et dans le monde, le changement climatique porte déjà préjudice aux moyens de subsistance et au bien-être des gens. Il est de plus en plus évident qu’il aura des impacts négatifs graves sur le développement économique et social en Tunisie puisqu’il menace de bloquer et inverser les progrès accomplis en matière de réduction de a pauvreté, d'amélioration de la santé, d'égalité des sexes et d'inclusion sociale. Ce rapport vise à évaluer les impacts de la variabilité et du changement climatiques afin de combler les lacunes en termes de connaissances et de répondre à la demande du Gouvernement tunisien en assistance technique pour la compréhension et l'identification des politiques et des programmes d'adaptation à succès. Cette analyse aidera le pays et son peuple à construire une résilience au changement climatique, en particulier pour les pauvres et les plus vulnérables. Ce rapport entend servir également de ressource pour commencer à évaluer les risques, les possibilités et les actions liés au climat. La méthodologie appliquée combine des approches quantitatives et qualitatives servant à l'évaluation des impacts du changement climatique et des comportements d'adaptation. Ce rapport comporte cinq chapitres. Le chapitre 1 expose la motivation et les instruments de lutte contre le changement climatique en Tunisie. Les scénarios et les impacts du changement climatique sur la Tunisie sont traités dans le chapitre 2. Les impacts économiques du changement climatique sur la Tunisie sont abordés dans le chapitre 3 et les impacts socio-économiques du changement climatique dans le Centre et le Sud de la Tunisie sont abordés dans le chapitre 4.

The increasing resilience to climate change in the agricultural sector report presents local-level priorities, informed by stakeholder input, to build agricultural resilience in both countries. The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to improve the understanding of climate change projections and impacts on rural communities and livelihoods in selected regions of Jordan and Lebanon, specifically the Jordan River Valley and Lebanon's Bekaa Valley; (2) to engage local communities, farmers, local experts, and local and national government representatives in a participatory fashion in helping craft agricultural adaptation options to climate change; and (3) to develop local and regional climate change action plans that formulate recommendations for investment strategies and strategic interventions in local agricultural systems. The climate challenges confronting development in the Middle East are particularly stark. This region, and in particular its rural people, face what might be called a "triple threat" from climate change. First, the Middle East is already one of the driest and most water-scarce regions of the world (World Bank 2011a) and faces severe challenges posed by high temperatures and limited water supplies. This report to assist Jordan and Lebanon in understanding the specific challenges and opportunities posed by climate change in the agricultural sector.

This book provides a much needed look at the impact of climate change on the poor. It convincingly demonstrates that issues of poverty and livelihoods must be integrated into climate change policies to help achieve sustainable development gains. The high incidence of natural disasters, growing urbanization, and increased water scarcity combined with the acute impact of these phenomena on the poor and vulnerable complicates the already enormous challenge of reducing poverty and inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean. This publication lays bare the social implications of climate change and equips the reader with a framework for understanding how climate change and climate variability affect livelihoods, poverty, income, health, and migration. These scenarios call for greater efforts to incorporate poverty, livelihood, and social considerations into climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. Purposefully targeted policies and investments can support economic growth and poverty reduction efforts and help achieve sustainable development goals. In other words, good climate change adaptation policies can also be good development policies. This book will change the way the author think about the relationship between poverty, social development, and climate change. It provides climate-smart policy options to help reduce vulnerability, protect livelihoods, and build communities that are resilient to changing climate conditions.