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Background: Dementia poses a growing challenge for individuals, healthcare, social support, and society amidst the ongoing ageing of populations. To evaluate the care requirements and social implications of dementia in Germany, reliable statistics regarding its current and future occurrence are necessary., Methods: Using existing data sources and recent research results, this paper compiles and analyses relevant statistics on the occurrence of dementia in Germany, presents protective and risk factors, and options for care provision., Results: Recent projections indicate a potential surge in the number of dementia patients in Germany, predicted to rise from 1.7 million at present to up to 3.0 million by the year 2070. Cognitive and motor deterioration and behavioural changes associated with dementia lower the ability to live independently. These changes are often tied to social exclusion and stigma and, particularly in the severe phase of the disease, necessitate extensive medical and care requirements. This contributes to dementia being one of the most costly diseases at old age from an overall societal perspective. Currently, there are no curative treatment options available., Conclusions: To reduce the increase in the number of dementia patients and associated costs in the future, preventive approaches, particularly promoting a healthy lifestyle, may prove effective. Simultaneously, the healthcare system, society, and caregivers must prepare for the increasing number of dementia patients. Improved diagnostics, new forms of therapy, and social innovations that support those who are affected and their relatives can help reduce the burden of dementia and its associated costs., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The authors declared no conflicts of interest., (© Robert Koch Institute. All rights reserved unless explicitly granted.)

Introduction: We examined whether German claims data are suitable for dementia risk prediction, how machine learning (ML) compares to classical regression, and what the important predictors for dementia risk are., Methods: We analyzed data from the largest German health insurance company, including 117,895 dementia-free people age 65+. Follow-up was 10 years. Predictors were: 23 age-related diseases, 212 medical prescriptions, 87 surgery codes, as well as age and sex. Statistical methods included logistic regression (LR), gradient boosting (GBM), and random forests (RFs)., Results: Discriminatory power was moderate for LR (C-statistic = 0.714; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.708-0.720) and GBM (C-statistic = 0.707; 95% CI  = 0.700-0.713) and lower for RF (C-statistic = 0.636; 95% CI  = 0.628-0.643). GBM had the best model calibration. We identified antipsychotic medications and cerebrovascular disease but also a less-established specific antibacterial medical prescription as important predictors., Discussion: Our models from German claims data have acceptable accuracy and may provide cost-effective decision support for early dementia screening., (© 2022 The Authors. Alzheimer's & Dementia published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Alzheimer's Association.)

Background: Antibiotics for systemic use may increase the risk of neurodegeneration, yet antibiotic therapy may be able to halt or mitigate an episode of neurodegenerative decline., Objective: To investigate the association of sporadic use of antibiotics and subsequent dementia risk (including Alzheimer's disease)., Methods: We used data from the largest public health insurance fund in Germany, the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse (AOK). Each of the 35,072 dementia cases aged 60 years and older with a new dementia diagnosis during the observation period from 2006 to 2018 was matched with two control-patients by age, sex, and time since 2006. We ran conditional logistic regression models for dementia risk in terms of odds ratios (OR) as a function of antibiotic use for the entire antibiotic group and for each antibiotic subgroup. We controlled for comorbidities, need for long-term care, hospitalizations, and nursing home placement., Results: Antibiotic use was positively associated with dementia (OR = 1.18, 95% confidence interval (95% CI):1.14-1.22), which became negative after adjustment for comorbidities, at least one diagnosis of bacterial infection or disease, and covariates (OR = 0.93, 95% CI:0.90-0.96). Subgroups of antibiotics were also negatively associated with dementia after controlling for covariates: tetracyclines (OR = 0.94, 95% CI:0.90-0.98), beta-lactam antibacterials, penicillins (OR = 0.93, 95% CI:0.90-0.97), other beta-lactam antibacterials (OR = 0.92, 95% CI:0.88-0.95), macrolides, lincosamides, and streptogramins (OR = 0.88, 95% CI:0.85-0.92), and quinolone antibacterials (OR = 0.96, 95% CI:0.92-0.99)., Conclusion: Our results suggest that there was a decreased likelihood of dementia for preceding antibiotic use. The benefits of antibiotics in reducing inflammation and thus the risk of dementia need to be carefully weighed against the increase in antibiotic resistance.

Introduction: Obesity prevalence has almost tripled in Europe since 1980, and the obesogenic (food) environment is hypothesised to be one of the main drivers. Still, empirical evidence is rare for Europe., Objective: This ecological study explores spatial patterns of obesity prevalence of adults (aged 19+) in the Netherlands in 2016. It studies, in particular, its global associations with (un)healthy food store accessibility while assessing local differences and evaluating the importance of the immediate versus the wider food surroundings., Methods: In our ecological study, we used small-area estimated obesity prevalence (adults, aged 19+) from 2836 neighbourhoods (six-digit postal codes, wijken ) and combined this with measures from Statistics Netherlands on accessibility to (unhealthy) fast food and (healthy) fresh food. Spatial lag of X (SLX) models were estimated for the entire Netherlands to explore global associations. Separate models for urban, suburban, and rural neighbourhoods and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) were estimated to explore and visualise local variations in the associations. Total associations from the SLX models were then decomposed to yield contributions of the immediate and wider food surroundings., Results: Regional clusters of high obesity were observed in selected areas in the north-east, the south-west, and south-east. Limited accessibility to unhealthy food was globally associated with lower obesity prevalence, whereas better accessibility to fresh food stores and supermarkets was not. The association regarding worse accessibility to unhealthy food was strongest for urban neighbourhoods, especially for the Randstad region. In urban settings, also better accessibility to fresh food stores proved relevant. The wider food surrounding proved more important than the immediate food surrounding, throughout., Discussion: Public policies addressing obesity might be more effective when reducing the presence of unhealthy food rather than expanding healthy food supply. Moreover, they should focus on urban regions and high obesity clusters, thereby considering wider food surroundings., Competing Interests: The authors declare they have no current or potential competing (financial) interests., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Objectives: Due to demographic aging, the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) is expected to increase in the future, resulting in a growing demand for stent and bypass interventions. This study aims to investigate the mortality risk of patients following conventional coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or endovascular procedure by the implantation of bare-metal stents (BMS) or drug-eluting stents (DES)., Methods: Based on a random sample of 250,000 members of Germany's largest health insurance 'Allgemeine Ortskrankenkassen' (AOK) from 2004 to 2015, incident CAD patients were analyzed by Cox Proportional-Hazard models. Risk adjustment was made for sex, age, other cardiac diseases, non-cardiovascular comorbidities and years since intervention. Due to later admission of DES and thus a shorter observation time, mortality was examined for 3 years since the intervention., Results: BMS represented the most frequent procedure (48%). We found similar proportions of CABG (19%) and DES interventions (23%). After risk adjustment, the models showed a 21% (p = 0.004) lower mortality risk of patients with DES and also a 21% (p = 0.002) lower mortality risk of CABG patients compared to persons with BMS., Conclusion: Based on a large-scale dataset, our study demonstrated survival advantages of CABG and DES interventions over BMS, with no differences between the DES and CABG groups. The results help to assess the risks of coronary interventions. Aspects of quality of life, severity of postoperative physical limitations, duration of rehabilitation, patients' preferences, and aspects of cost-effectiveness for hospitals and society should be further considered., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Recent research points towards age- and gender-specific transmission of COVID-19 infections and their outcomes. The effect of gender, however, has been overlooked in past modelling approaches of COVID-19 infections. The aim of our study is to explore how gender-specific contact behavior affects gender-specific COVID-19 infections and deaths. We consider a compartment model to establish short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic over a time period of 75 days. Compartments are subdivided into different age groups and genders, and estimated contact patterns, based on previous studies, are incorporated to account for age- and gender-specific social behaviour. The model is fitted to real data and used for assessing the effect of hypothetical contact scenarios all starting at a daily level of 10 new infections per million population. On day 75 after the end of the lockdown, infection rates are highest among the young and working-age, but they also have increased among the old. Sex ratios reveal higher infection risks among women than men at working ages; the opposite holds true at old age. Death rates in all age groups are twice as high for men as for women. Small changes in contact rates at working and young ages have a considerable effect on infections and mortality at old age, with elderly men being always at higher risk of infection and mortality. Our results underline the high importance of the non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures (NPMM) in low-infection phases of the pandemic to prevent that an increase in contact rates leads to higher mortality among the elderly, even if easing measures take place among the young. At young and middle ages, women's contribution to increasing infections is higher due to their higher number of contacts. Gender differences in contact rates may be one pathway that contributes to the spread of the disease and results in gender-specific infection rates and their mortality outcome. To further explore possible pathways, more data on contact behavior and COVID-19 transmission is needed, which includes gender- and socio-demographic information., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: We assess the impact of prevention strategies regarding type 2 diabetes as a modifiable risk factor for dementia and its consequences for the future number of dementia patients in Germany., Methods: We used a random sample of health claims data (N = 250,000) of insured persons aged 50+ drawn in 2014, and data on population size and death rates in 2015 from the Human Mortality Database. Using exponential hazard models, we calculated age- and sex-specific transition probabilities and death rates between the states (no diabetes/no dementia, diabetes/no dementia, no diabetes/dementia, diabetes/dementia). In multi-state projections, we estimated the future number of dementia cases aged 75+ through 2040 depending on the development of the incidence of diabetes among persons without diabetes and without dementia, and the dementia incidence among persons with and without diabetes., Results: In 2015 there were 1.53 million people with dementia aged 75+ in Germany. A relative annual reduction in death rates of 2.5% and in dementia incidence in persons without diabetes of 1% will increase this number to 3.38 million by 2040. A relative reduction of diabetes incidence by 1% annually would decrease dementia cases by around 30,000, while a reduction of dementia incidence among people with diabetes by 1% would result in 220,000 fewer dementia cases. Both prevention strategies combined would prevent 240,000 dementia cases in 2040., Conclusions: The increase in life expectancy is decisive for the future number of people with dementia. Strategies of better diabetes treatment have the potential to lower the increase in the number of dementia patients in the coming decades., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

After three decades since reunification male life expectancy in East Germany still lags behind that of West Germany. Unlike most of the prior studies focusing on the role of socioeconomic factors, this study aims at assessing the contribution of the population with severe disabilities to the persistent East-West male mortality gap. Our analysis is mainly based on the German Pension Fund data. It is restricted to men aged 30-59 receiving disability pension (DP). We estimate mortality indicators and compare trends among populations with or without DP. We use decomposition method to quantify the effects of changes in mortality and compositional changed in the prevalence of receiving DP on the East-West mortality difference. The analysis covers the period 1995-2013. The German Socioeconomic Panel data and Cox proportional hazard models are used to evaluate the regional differences in the risk of receiving DP. Our results suggest that both the higher prevalence of receiving DP in the East and the higher mortality level among men not receiving DP in the East explain the East-West gap. The mortality difference among those receiving DP is negligible and does not contribute much to it. The observed higher prevalence in receiving DP in the East is very likely to reflect the reality as we found no regional differences in the risk of transitioning to receiving DP. The disadvantageous position of the East can be explained by the post-reunification crisis which particularly hit young men in the 1990s, selective migration from East to West after reunification, and the higher proportion of the healthier foreign population living in the West., Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09609-4., Competing Interests: Conflict of interestNot applicable., (© The Author(s) 2022.)

Objectives: Knowledge about the socioeconomic spread of the first wave of COVID-19 infections in Germany is scattered across different studies. We explored whether COVID-19 incidence rates differed between counties according to their socioeconomic characteristics using a wide range of indicators., Data and Method: We used data from the Robert Koch-Institute (RKI) on 204 217 COVID-19 diagnoses in the total German population of 83.1 million, distinguishing five distinct periods between 1 January and 23 July 2020. For each period, we calculated age-standardised incidence rates of COVID-19 diagnoses on the county level and characterised the counties by 166 macro variables. We trained gradient boosting models to predict the age-standardised incidence rates with the macrostructures of the counties and used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to characterise the 20 most prominent features in terms of negative/positive correlations with the outcome variable., Results: The first COVID-19 wave started as a disease in wealthy rural counties in southern Germany and ventured into poorer urban and agricultural counties during the course of the first wave. High age-standardised incidence in low socioeconomic status (SES) counties became more pronounced from the second lockdown period onwards, when wealthy counties appeared to be better protected. Features related to economic and educational characteristics of the young population in a county played an important role at the beginning of the pandemic up to the second lockdown phase, as did features related to the population living in nursing homes; those related to international migration and a large proportion of foreigners living in a county became important in the postlockdown period., Conclusion: High mobility of high SES groups may drive the pandemic at the beginning of waves, while mitigation measures and beliefs about the seriousness of the pandemic as well as the compliance with mitigation measures may put lower SES groups at higher risks later on., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Glaucoma is a leading cause of severe visual impairment and blindness (SVI/B) worldwide. Hence, it is of utmost importance to explore relevant risk factors and study the pace of progression to SVI/B., Methods and Analysis: We used a random sample of 250 000 persons from administrative individual-level health records of the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkassen between 2004 and 2015. We identified 3535 primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) patients aged 55 and older and followed them for up to 10 years. Monocular and binocular SVI/B were defined by the ICD-10 classifications H54.0 and H54.4. Ophthalmological and chronic disease risk factors were analysed by applying a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model., Results: The risk of SVI/B in POAG patients was significantly increased by the presence of specific additional eye diseases such as secondary glaucoma (HR: 3.08, p<0.001), retinal vascular occlusion (HR: 3.00, p<0.001) or age-related macular degeneration (AMD) (HR: 2.26, p<0.001). The risk was highest in the first 2 years after the POAG diagnosis and significantly decreased after the fifth year (HR: 0.36, p=0.002). Ocular injuries, other ocular diseases, non-ophthalmological comorbidities, and age and sex had no significant influence (p>0.05)., Conclusion: Although progression to SVI/B is relatively rare in POAG patients in Germany, one must be aware of additional risk factors, such as secondary glaucoma, retinal vascular occlusion and AMD. Regular ophthalmological examinations help prevent the progression of SVI/B, especially in the first years after the POAG diagnosis. Specific, targeted, and timely treatments for the other eye diseases could help prevent or delay SVI/B., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: Diabetes is a risk factor for dementia but little is known about the impact of diabetes duration on the risk of dementia. We investigated the effect of type 2 diabetes duration on the risk of dementia., Design: Prospective cohort study using health claims data representative for the older German population. The data contain information about diagnoses and medical prescriptions from the in- and outpatient sector., Methods: We performed piecewise exponential models with a linear and a quadratic term for time since first type 2 diabetes diagnosis to predict the dementia risk in a sample of 13,761 subjects (2,558 dementia cases) older than 65 years. We controlled for severity of diabetes using the Adopted Diabetes Complications Severity Index., Results: We found a U-shaped dementia risk over time. After type 2 diabetes diagnosis the dementia risk decreased (26% after 1 year) and reached a minimum at 4.75 years, followed by an increase through the end of follow-up. The pattern was consistent over different treatment groups, with the strongest U-shape for insulin treatment and for those with diabetes complications at the time of diabetes diagnosis., Conclusions: We identified a non-linear association of type 2 diabetes duration and the risk of dementia. Physicians should closely monitor cognitive function in diabetic patients beyond the first few years after diagnosis, because the later increase in dementia occurred in all treatment groups., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: There is an ongoing debate about whether environmental characteristics influence dementia risk like individual traits do, and whether these differ by sex and gender., Objective: This study examines the influence of regional characteristics on the incidence of dementia and explores sex and gender differences using individual-level health information and regional characteristics., Methods: Using a random sample of 250,000 people aged 70 + insured through Germany's largest German public health agency, we analyzed quarterly data about diagnoses and place of residence from 2014 to 2019. Using five-digit postal codes, we added data on various dimensions of regional characteristics offered by the INKAR database and the 2011 Census database. We used multilevel survival regressions to tease out regional incidence differences while accounting for spatial clustering., Results: After adjusting for multi-morbidity and relocation-related selection bias, we saw that people living in regions with the highest tertile of income (HR = 0.87, p < 0.001), and who had the highest tertile of remaining life expectancy at age 60 (HR = 0.93, p = 0.012) had lower dementia risks. There was no gender difference in the regional income effect, but the effect of education (HR = 0.91, p = 0.015) was significant only for men and remaining life-expectancy was significant only for women (HR = 0.93, p = 0.026)., Conclusion: Environmental characteristics related to wealth and health resources of a region influence the risk of dementia among the elderly in Germany. This effect is independent of the health profiles of the individuals and differs between the two genders. Health policies need to acknowledge these modifiable risk factors and consider how they affect men and women differently.

(1) Background: In the absence of individual level information, the aim of this study was to identify the regional key features explaining SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 deaths during the upswing of the second wave in Germany. (2) Methods: We used COVID-19 diagnoses and deaths from 1 October to 15 December 2020, on the county-level, differentiating five two-week time periods. For each period, we calculated the age-standardized COVID-19 incidence and death rates on the county level. We trained gradient boosting models to predict the incidence and death rates by 155 indicators and identified the top 20 associations using Shap values. (3) Results: Counties with low socioeconomic status (SES) had higher infection and death rates, as had those with high international migration, a high proportion of foreigners, and a large nursing home population. The importance of these characteristics changed over time. During the period of intense exponential increase in infections, the proportion of the population that voted for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the last federal election was among the top characteristics correlated with high incidence and death rates. (4) Machine learning approaches can reveal regional characteristics that are associated with high rates of infection and mortality.

Background: Exposure to fine particulate matter and black carbon is related to cognitive impairment and poor lung function, but less is known about the routes taken by different types of air pollutants to affect cognition., Objectives: We tested two possible routes of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and black carbon (BC) in impairing cognition, and evaluated their importance: a direct route over the olfactory nerve or the blood stream, and an indirect route over the lung., Methods: We used longitudinal observational data for 49,705 people aged 18+ from 2006 to 2015 from the Dutch Lifelines cohort study. By linking current home addresses to air pollution exposure data from ELAPSE in 2010, long-term average exposure to PM 2.5 and BC was assessed. Lung function was measured by spirometry and Global Initiative (GLI) z-scores of forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV 1 ) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were calculated. Cognitive performance was measured by cognitive processing time (CPT) assessed by the Cogstate Brief Battery. Linear structural equation modeling was performed to test direct/indirect associations., Results: Higher exposure to PM 2.5 but not BC was related to higher CPT and slower cognitive processing speed [Total Effect PM 2.5 : FEV 1 model = 8.31 × 10 -3 (95% CI: 5.71 × 10 -3 , 10.91 × 10 -3 ), FVC model = 8.30 × 10 -3 (95% CI: 5.69 × 10 -3 , 10.90 × 10 -3 )]. The direct association of PM 2.5 constituted more than 97% of the total effect. Mediation by lung function was low for PM 2.5 with a mediated proportion of 1.32% (FEV 1 ) and 2.05% (FVC), but higher for BC (7.01% and 13.82% respectively)., Discussion: Our results emphasise the importance of the lung acting as a mediator in the relationship between both exposure to PM 2.5 and BC, and cognitive performance. However, higher exposure to PM 2.5 was mainly directly associated with worse cognitive performance, which emphasises the health-relevance of fine particles due to their ability to reach vital organs directly., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: This study aims to estimate the incidence of severe binocular vision impairment and blindness (SVI/B) and to identify eye diseases and regional risk factors of persons with SVI/B at ages 50 years and older., Methods: We designed an observational cohort study based on longitudinal, multifactorial, and administrative information of a random sample of 250,000 persons at ages 50+. All individuals were included in the process-produced health claims register of the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse in 2004, and were followed until 2015. We analyzed ten selected eye diseases and regional characteristics as risk factors for SVI/B using Cox models, adjusting for demographic characteristics and multi-morbidity., Results: The age-standardized incidence was 79 new diagnoses of SVI/B per 100,000 person-years (95%-CI: 76-82); 77 for males (72-82) and 81 for females (77-85). By adjusting for multiple factors, the model revealed and confirmed that individuals who were very old (Hazard ratio90+: 6.67; 3.59-12.71), male (1.18; 1.01-1.38), had multi-morbidities (three+ diseases: 3.36; 2.51-4.49), or had diabetes (1.26; 1.07-1.49) had an increased risk of SVI/B. Compared to persons without the particular eye disease (all p<0.001), persons diagnosed with secondary glaucoma had a multiple-adjusted 4.66 times (3.17-6.85) higher risk, those with retinal vascular occlusion had a 4.51 times (3.27-6.23) higher risk, and those with angle-closure glaucoma had a 4.22 times (2.60-6.85) higher risk. Population density was not a risk factor, while persons living in wealthier regions had 0.75 times (p=0.003) to 0.70 times (p<0.001) the risk of SVI/B than persons in the least wealthy regions of Germany., Conclusion: The study revealed and confirmed some profound risk factors of SVI/B at both the individual and the macro level. The sizes of the effects of the characteristics of the living context were smaller than those of the individual characteristics, especially for some severe eye diseases. While urbanity and access to health services had no effect, regional economic wealth was a risk factor for SVI/B. Future health care measures and advice by physicians should take these dimensions of inequalities in SVI/B into account., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

In recent years, Germany and Austria have been among the leading European receiving countries for asylum seekers and refugees (AS&R). The two countries have cultural and economic similarities, but differ, for example, in their health care systems, with AS&R having unrestricted access to health services upon arrival in Austria, but not in Germany. This study investigates the determinants of health among refugees in Austria and Germany, and how these determinants differ between the two countries. We analyze comparable and harmonized survey data from both countries for Syrian, Afghan, and Iraqi nationals aged 18 to 59 years who had immigrated between 2013 and 2016 (Germany: n = 2,854; Austria: n = 374). The study adopts a cross-sectional design, and uses propensity score matching to examine comparable AS&R in the two receiving countries. The results reveal that the AS&R in Germany (72%) were significantly less likely to report being in (very) good health than their peers in Austria (89%). Age and education had large impacts on health, whereas the effects of length of stay and length of asylum process were smaller. Compositional differences in terms of age, sex, nationality, education, and partnership situation explained the country differences only in part. After applying propensity score matching to adjust for structural differences and to assess non-confounded country effects, the probability of reporting (very) good health was still 12 percentage points lower in Germany than in Austria. We conclude that many of the determinants of health among AS&R correspond to those in the non-migrant population, and thus call for the implementation of similar health policies. The health disadvantage found among the AS&R in Germany suggests that removing their initially restricted access to health care may improve their health., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Gastrointestinal infections cause significant health problems, including those affecting the immune, musculoskeletal, and nervous system, and are one of the leading causes for death worldwide. Recent findings suggest that microbiota of the gastrointestinal tract contribute to dementia., Objective: In this nested case-control study we investigated the role of common gastrointestinal infections on the subsequent risk of dementia., Methods: We used a longitudinal sample of 202,806 individuals from health claims data of the largest German health insurer and applied a nested case-control design with 23,354 initial dementia cases between 2006 and 2014 and 23,354 matched controls. We used conditional logistic regression to compute odds ratios (ORs) for dementia and corresponding 95%confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for potential confounders., Results: The risk of dementia was increased in patients with recurring incidences of quarters with diagnosed gastrointestinal infections when compared to the unexposed population (one quarter: OR = 1.49, 95%CI = 1.40-1.58; two quarters: OR = 1.70, 95%CI = 1.51-1.91; three or more quarters: OR = 1.64, 95%CI = 1.40-1.93), adjusted for potential confounders., Conclusion: Our findings suggest that recurring gastrointestinal infections are associated with an increased risk of subsequent dementia.

We estimate the dementia incidence hazard in Germany for the birth cohorts 1900 until 1954 from a simple sample of Germany's largest health insurance company. Followed from 2004 to 2012, 36,000 uncensored dementia incidences are observed and further 200,000 right-censored insurants included. From a multiplicative hazard model we find a positive and linear trend in the dementia hazard over the cohorts. The main focus of the study is on 11,000 left-censored persons who have already suffered from the disease in 2004. After including the left-censored observations, the slope of the trend declines markedly due to Simpson's paradox, left-censored persons are imbalanced between the cohorts. When including left-censoring, the dementia hazard increases differently for different ages, we consider omitted covariates to be the reason. For the standard errors from large sample theory, left-censoring requires an adjustment to the conditional information matrix equality.

Objective: We evaluated the short-, medium-, and long-term effects of sepsis on dementia incidence using German health claims data., Methods: A total of 161,567 patients (65 years or older) were followed from 2004 to 2015 at quarterly intervals. Time since sepsis was categorized into 0 (the effective quarter of sepsis diagnosis), 1-8, and ≥9 quarters since the latest diagnosis of sepsis, taking into account admission to intensive care unit and controlling for delirium, surgery, age, sex, and comorbidities. Incident dementia was defined for all persons who did not have a validated dementia diagnosis in 2004 and 2005 and who received a first-time, valid diagnosis between 2006 and 2015., Results: During the quarter of sepsis diagnosis, patients not admitted to intensive care had a 3.14-fold (95% CI 2.83-3.49) increased risk, and those with intensive care stay had a 2.22-fold (95% CI: 1.83-2.70) increased risk of receiving an incident dementia diagnosis compared with patients without sepsis. The impact of sepsis on incident dementia remained in the following 2 years, remitting only thereafter., Conclusions: For sepsis survivors, medium-term dementia risk remains elevated, whereas long-term risk may reach the level of those without sepsis, even after controlling for delirium. These findings encourage identifying modifiable components of hospital and rehabilitation care., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.)

Aim: Not much is known on risks for reduced earning capacity pensions (RECP) for patients with specific diseases. Our study focusses on individuals who have completed a course of rehabilitation due to cardiovascular disease., Methods: This study is based on a scientific use file from the German statutory pension insurance that covers completed rehabilitations between 2006-2013. Using survival analysis, we modeled the transition into RECP in general and for specific diagnostic groups. We used Kaplan-Meier-estimates and age-standardized and sex-specific transition rates. Multivariate Cox Proportional Hazard models are used to identify the most important socio-demographic risk factors for RECP., Results: Patients who completed rehabilitation after cerebral infarction, cardiomyopathy or cerebrovascular diseases were most likely to transition into RECP due to these diseases. The most important socio-demographic risk factors for RECP were low educational attainments, part-time or no employment and living in Eastern Germany., Conclusion: Especially patients with cerebral infarction, cardiomyopathy or cerebrovascular diseases require successful medical rehabilitation. In case of multimorbid patients, these diagnoses require special attention. Also, the reintegration into the labor market of people from lower social strata after medical rehabilitation to avoid RECP appears to be especially difficult., Competing Interests: Die Autoren geben an, dass kein Interessenkonflikt besteht., (Thieme. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: There will be an increase in the number of people with dementia (DEM) and Parkinson's disease (PD) with the ageing of the population. The aim of the study was to calculate prevalences and trends of prevalences for DEM and PD in Germany to enable reliable public health planning., Methods: For the years 2009-2012, sex-specific period prevalences of DEM and PD for 5-year age-groups based on health claims data from all German statutory health insurance funds were calculated. Time trends were estimated using a negative binomial regression., Results: In 2012 and for persons aged 65 or older, the crude prevalence was 7.9% for DEM and 2.2% for PD. Between 2009 and 2012, a mean decrease of the DEM prevalence by 1.2% per year was found for women and men above age 65. For PD we found constant rates between 2009-2012 among men and an annual mean decrease of PD prevalence of 0.5% among women., Conclusion: A reduction of the DEM prevalence by 1.2% per year could partially counterbalance the increase of people with dementia resulting from ageing population. For PD we found decreasing prevalences only among women., Competing Interests: Gabriele Doblhammer erhielt Honorare für Vorträge vom Verband Forschender Arzneimittelhersteller e.V. Deutschland und Eli Lilly. Die Vorträge stehen in keinerlei Verbindung mit der vorliegenden Studie., (Thieme. All rights reserved.)

This study estimates the prevalence and mortality of diseases of the deep veins of the legs such as deep vein thrombosis (DVT), postthrombotic syndrome (PTS), and venous leg ulceration (VLU). We used a random sample of 250 000 patients at age 50+ years of the register of the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse from 2004 to 2015. Selected manifestations of venous diseases assumed as risk factors for mortality were analyzed using Cox models while adjusting for various basic demographic and health characteristics. The prevalence in 2004 was 0.05% for DVT of the femoral veins, 0.50% for DVT of any deep veins, 0.86% for PTS, and 0.91% for VLU. The mortality rate in 2004 to 2015 was 20.40 deaths/100 person-years for DVT of the femoral veins, 10.69 for DVT of any deep veins, 4.34 for PTS, and 7.02 for VLU. The model revealed a 35% higher risk ( p < .001) in patients with any DVT, an 88% higher mortality ( p < .001) for femoral DVT, a 23% higher risk ( p < .001) for VLU, and no health disadvantage in persons with PTS. Our study revealed an increased mortality for patients with VLU and DVT. Even after adjustment for embolic events and infections of the venous ulcers mortality remained significantly higher.

Background: Recent evidence indicates an important role for neuroinflammation in the pathological cascade of Alzheimer's disease (AD), and neuroinflammation is increasingly being recognized as a potential therapeutic target., Objective: To assess the impact of glucocorticoids on the risk of developing dementia., Methods: We used health insurance data of the largest German health insurer from 2004-2013 with a baseline sample of 176,485 persons aged 50 years and older to study the association of glucocorticoid treatment and incidence of dementia. Cox proportional-hazard models were calculated adjusting for sex, age, and comorbidities known to be major risk factors for dementia and were given as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We further stratified glucocorticoid treatment by route of application and treatment duration., Results: Of the 176,485 dementia-free persons, 19,938 were diagnosed with dementia by the end of 2013. The risk of suffering from dementia was significantly lower for glucocorticoid users compared to non-users (HR = 0.81, CI = 0.78-0.84). The lowest risk was found among users of inhaled glucocorticoid (HR = 0.65, CI = 0.57-0.75), followed by nasal (HR = 0.76, CI = 0.66-0.87), other (HR = 0.84, CI = 0.80-0.88), and oral users (HR = 0.83, CI = 0.78-0.88). We found no difference in risk reduction between long- and short-term-users., Conclusion: Longitudinal German health insurance data indicate that the use of glucocorticoids is associated with a lower risk of dementia. Prospective clinical trials will be necessary to determine whether glucocorticoids can have a positive impact on neuroinflammation and thus protect persons against dementia.

Background: Longitudinal studies on associations between changes in living environment and health are few and focus on movers. Next to causal effects, differences in health can, however, result due to residential mobility. The present study explored changes in living environment related to (changes in) physical health among non-movers. Causality was reinforced by a novel study design., Methods: We obtained longitudinal data on both living environment and physical health covering 4601 non-movers aged 18+ with 16 076 health observations from the German Socio-Economic Panel between 1999 and 2014. Changing and stable perceived living environment from three domains (infrastructure, environmental pollution, housing conditions) were included at household level. We performed linear regressions with robust standard errors and generalized estimating equations to predict the physical component summary (PCS) at baseline and changes in PCS over time., Results: Stable moderate and worst as well as worsened environmental pollution and infrastructure were associated with worse PCS at baseline, as were stable poor and worsened housing conditions. Stable worst infrastructure was associated with negative changes in PCS for both sexes. Men's changes in PCS were more affected by worsened environmental pollution than women's., Conclusion: A suboptimal living environment has short- and long-term negative effects on physical health. Because even short-term changes in the living environment have an immediate influence on an individual's health status and health trajectories, public attention to living environment is essential to fight existing health inequalities., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.)

Background: The inverse association between mortality and individual socioeconomic status is well-documented. Due to the lack of appropriate data, little is known about the nature of this association among individuals with long-term care (LTC) needs., Objectives: We aim to fill in this knowledge gap by estimating life expectancy (LE), life expectancy without (CFLE) and with (CLE) long-term care by education for older German men; and by assessing the trends in the education-LE/CFLE/CLE gradient over time., Data and Methods: We apply survival analysis and Gompertz regression to German Socioeconomic Panel data (1997-2012) to estimate the mortality levels and to construct the life tables for three educational categories. Using the administrative data from the health insurance, we adjust mortality rates upward to account for the institutionalized population. We estimate age-specific LTC prevalence from the German Microcensus data (2004, 2012) and compute life expectancy with and without LTC by employing Sullivan's method. Slope and Relative Indices of Inequality are computed to evaluate the magnitude of educational inequalities in CFLE., Results: There is a clear and growing educational gradient in LE and CFLE among older men in Germany. In 2004, LE at age 65 among men with low education was 14.2 years, or 3.3 years lower than among highly educated individuals. The CFLE of these two educational categories ranged from 13.6 to almost 17 years. The gradient increased over time and in 2012 the difference constituted 4.6 years. The gaps between educational groups were not pronounced for CLE. The declining health ratio of years without LTC to remaining LE suggests the expansion of LTC needs, irrespective of the educational level., Conclusions: Growing inequalities by educational status among older German men with care needs demand the attention of policy-makers. Prompt actions are needed to increase the survival chances of the most vulnerable groups., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Aims: The association between type II diabetes (T2D) and increased all-cause dementia risk is well established. However, to date, there is no definite proof that a specific therapy for diabetes can halt a progress of cognitive decline. Therefore, we analyzed a large longitudinal random sample of German health claims data to focus on associations between T2D and dementia and to elucidate the role of different treatment forms of T2D on the risk for dementia., Methods: We used a longitudinal random sample (n = 250,000) of claims data of the largest public sickness fund in Germany, the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse (AOK). Dementia was defined as ICD-10 codes G31.0, G31.82, G23.1, F00, F01, F02, F03, and F05, and T2D was defined as E11-E14. We performed Cox proportional hazard models to explore the transition into dementia and to calculate the relative risk of dementia dependent on T2D and different T2D treatment forms., Results: All models were adjusted for sex, age, and each patient's history of depression, renal insufficiency, and cardiovascular comorbidities. Non-pharmacologic-treated diabetics showed a 23% increased dementia risk (p < 0.001) and oral ADM-treated diabetics showed a 16% increased risk (p < 0.001). Insulin-dependent diabetics is still the highest dementia risk (40%; p < 0.001) and obesity additionally attenuated this risk (75%; p < 0.001) increased risk., Conclusions: We found that diabetes is an independent risk factor for all-cause dementia. An increased risk for dementia in insulin-dependent and obese subjects with diabetes was evident. Longitudinal studies on the effect of different forms of therapy and weight reduction are needed to verify the results of this study.

Background: Behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia are commonly treated with antipsychotic drugs (APDs), which have been associated with adverse health effects. We examine the effect of APDs on long-term care (LTC), nursing home (NH) admission, and death of dementia patients., Methods: We used health claims data of the largest German health insurer from 2004 to 2010 and followed newly-diagnosed dementia patients aged 60 years and older into LTC, NH, and until death. Cox proportional hazards models were estimated to explore whether the risk of these outcomes differed between patients receiving haloperidol, melperone, risperidone, or quetiapine., Results: In a cohort of 6,930 dementia patients who were initially free of LTC dependency, APD users generally faced a twofold increased risk of LTC relative to nonusers. Quetiapine was the exception, showing a comparatively lower risk (HR = 1.64; CI = 1.35-1.98). Among 9,950 dementia patients initially living in private homes, the risk of moving into a NH was generally increased by about 50% among APD users relative to nonusers. Risk of death (N = 10,921) was significantly higher for haloperidol-, melperone-, and risperidone- but not for quetiapine users (HR = 0.91; CI = 0.78-1.08). The excess mortality associated with haloperidol and melperone was greater among patients living in private households., Conclusions: In our study, APDs appeared to accelerate adverse health outcomes in German dementia patients. Differentiating between the effect of antipsychotic drug use among dementia patients residing in private households and in NHs, we found that excess mortality for haloperidol and melperone users was higher in private settings.

ABSTRACTBackground:Cognitive decline is an important complication of joint replacement surgeries in senior people., Methods: We determined incidence rates of dementia diagnosis following endoprosthetic joint replacement surgery (upper and lower extremities). The observation period covered up to 28 quarters using German claims data comprising 154,604 cases 65 years and older. Effects were controlled for cerebrovascular and vascular risk factors, age, sex, the presence of a diagnosis of delirium, and regular prescription of sedative or analgesic drugs (SAD)., Results: The rate of incident dementia diagnoses in people without joint replacement surgery was 21.34 per 1,000 person years, compared with 80.76 incident cases when joint replacement surgery was conducted during the quarter of the incident dementia diagnosis; rates declined to 21.77 incident cases 7 and more quarters after joint replacement surgery had taken place. This pattern was maintained when controlling for delirium diagnosis and regular prescription of SAD. Among 10,563 patients with at least one joint replacement surgery, patients with a diagnosis of delirium in the quarter of the surgery were at increased risk of a dementia diagnosis compared to patients without such a diagnosis (HR=2.00, p < 0.001)., Conclusion: In people surviving the high-risk phase for dementia immediately after surgery, long-term risk of dementia may reach the level of those without surgery. These findings encourage consequent perioperative management to reduce the risk of dementia as well as prospective studies of potentially beneficial effects of joint replacement surgery on mid- to long-term recovery of mobility and cognition in geriatric patients.

We assessed the prevalence of morbidity in long-lived individuals according to age and age at death and explored the association between dementia and other diseases and surviving to age 90 and 100. Using health claims data from the largest German health insurer from 2004 to 2013, we followed birth cohorts from 1908 to 1913 from age 95 until death or survival to age 100 (n=2,865) and compared them with birth cohorts from 1918 to 1923 and their survival from age 85 to age 90 (n=17,013). We observed their exact date of death and main categories of morbidity based on International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, diagnoses. For all diseases studied, when differentiated according to age at death, prevalence continued to increase with age. Nonagenarians and centenarians had significantly lower disease prevalence at each age. Dementia was associated with the highest risk of dying before becoming a centenarian (hazard ratio (HR)=1.63, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.50-1.78), followed closely by the residual category other chronic heart disease (HR=1.42, 95% CI=1.30-1.56). Results were even stronger for the younger cohort. Our study shows that exceptionally long-lived individuals are different in terms of good health. Survival at these high ages depends primarily on the absence of dementia and chronic heart disease, with acute heart disease and pneumonia playing important roles as diseases leading directly to death., (© 2018, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2018, The American Geriatrics Society.)

Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a minimally invasive treatment for aortic valve patients who are inoperable or have a prohibitively high surgical risk for surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). Most studies compare the efficacy of TAVI and SAVR, yet the assessment of TAVI for this group of patients requires more study., Methods: This quasiexperimental study compares TAVI cases (ages of 75-90 years, n=187) ex-post with a control group without implantation (n=728, 4:1 ratio intended). The control group was drawn randomly on the condition that it matches the TAVI cases based on age at aortic valve disease incidence, gender and comorbidity index. The mortality risk is analysed from incident diagnosis. Data were taken from three random samples of health claims data in Germany's largest public health insurance (Allgemeine Ortskrankenkassen) and cover the years 2004-2013 (n=750 000)., Results: Compared with the medically treated control group with 6+ comorbidities, medically treated patients with fewer comorbidities have half the mortality risk (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.69, p<0.001). TAVI patients with fewer than six comorbidities show a mortality risk half that (HR 0.23, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.63, p=0.004). TAVI patients with 6+ comorbidities do not benefit from TAVI compared with the control group with 6+ comorbidities (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.36, p=0.93)., Conclusion: TAVI is an effective therapy for aortic valve disease patients with few comorbidities; it is not effective for patients with a high comorbidity burden. Careful assessment of the individual patient in terms of comorbidities is important for a beneficial outcome., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

Objective: To assess factors associated with diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening uptake following a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (type 2 diabetes) in Germany., Materials and Methods: A nationally representative prospective sample of individual-level health claims data for 250,000 members from Germany's largest public insurance provider in 2004-2013 was assessed. In the sample, 26,560 persons with incident type 2 diabetes were identified. Factors associated with subsequent DR screening were assessed using descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier estimator, and Cox regression analysis., Results: On average 27.6 visits to an ophthalmologist per 100 person-years in persons with incident type 2 diabetes occurred. Half of all incident cases (Kaplan-Meier estimator) had not seen an ophthalmologist after more than two years (2.25 years) following their diabetes diagnosis. In the multivariate analysis, an older age (from hazard ratio HR(70-74) = 0.93 [95%-CI: 0.89-0.97] to HR(90+) = 0.50 [95%-CI: 0.42-0.60] compared to persons aged 50-69 years) and a higher disability level (i.e. HR(disability level 3) = 0.30 [95%-CI: 0.25-0.36]) were associated with a lower likelihood, while female sex (HR = 1.12 [95%-CI: 1.08-1.15]), six or more comorbidities (HR = 1.26 [95%-CI: 1.15-1.37]), moderate (HR = 1.51 [95%-CI: 1.46-1.56]) or severe type 2 diabetes (HR = 1.53 [95%-CI: 1.45-1.61]) as well as being enrolled in a type 2 diabetes disease management program (HR = 1.78 [95%-CI: 1.69-1.87]) were associated with a higher likelihood of DR screening., Conclusions: A high proportion of newly diagnosed persons with type 2 diabetes did not follow current German recommendations for DR screening, impeding timely detection and management of potential complications. This was more apparent among persons who were men, older or had a disability. The uptake of screening was considerably greater among those enrolled in a diseases management program. These factors need to be considered when planning DR screening services and/or referrals.

The goal of this study was to assess the adherence of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) patients to medication, and to determine co-factors influencing adherence, using a representative sample of members of the largest German public health insurer. The observational cohort study was based on a longitudinal data set from 2010-2013 and included 250,000 insured persons aged 50 and older with 10,120 diagnosed POAG patients. Uni- and multivariate analysis was performed to investigate several aspects of glaucoma, such as prevalence, adherence, and co-factors influencing adherence. The main outcome measured adherence with prescriptions filled within a year. Multivariate panel regression analysis was used to determine the co-factors influencing this adherence. Prevalence of POAG was 3.36% [CI: 3.28-3.43%], with 2.91% [CI: 2.81-3.01%] for males and 3.71% [CI: 3.61-3.81%] for females, increasing with age. The mean level of adherence in terms of prescriptions filled was 66.5% [CI: 65.50-67.60%]. The results of this analysis revealed a significant influence of age, duration of the disease, care need, distance to death, and multimorbidity as co-factors of non-adherence, whereas gender had no influence. The analysis provided detailed information about POAG health care aspects concerning prevalence and adherence. The most endangered risk groups for non-adherence were patients aged 50-59, patients older than 80 years, patients with a longer duration of POAG, patients with care needs, and patients with three or more severe diseases in addition to glaucoma. To know the predictors responsible for an increased risk to develop POAG is of importance for all persons involved in health care management. Therefore effective strategies to increase awareness of patients and medical care personnel about non-adherence and the importance of a regular and continuous medication to avoid further nerve fiber damage and possible blindness have to be developed.

Aims/hypothesis: The increasing number of people with dementia and cognitive impairments makes it essential to detect and prevent modifiable risk factors of dementia. This study focuses on type 2 diabetes mellitus, especially on undiagnosed cases and their increased risk of cognitive impairment. Furthermore, the potential of physical activity and social integration to moderate the relation between diabetes and cognitive impairment is assessed., Methods: We used cross-sectional data from 1299 participants of the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II) aged between 60 to 84 years and performed logistic regression models to analyze the association of diabetes status, physical activity, and cohabitation status with poor cognitive performance. Cognitive performance was measured with the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD)-Plus test battery., Results: Undiagnosed diabetes (odds ratio (OR) = 2.12, p = 0.031), physical inactivity (OR = 1.43, p = 0.008) and non-cohabiting (OR = 1.58, p = 0.002) were associated with an increased likelihood of poor cognitive performance. The highest odds were observed in participants who suffered from undiagnosed or insulin-dependent diabetes and, in addition, were inactive (undiagnosed diabetes: OR = 3.44, p = 0.003; insulin-dependent diabetes: OR = 6.19, p = 0.019) or lived alone (undiagnosed diabetes: OR = 4.46, p = 0.006; insulin-dependent diabetes: OR = 6.46 p = 0.052). Physical activity and cohabiting appeared to be beneficial., Conclusions/interpretation: Physical activity and cohabitation status moderate the link between diabetes mellitus and cognitive performance. Special attention should be paid to undiagnosed and insulin-dependent diabetes cases, which have a particularly high risk of poor cognitive performance.

Background: Extremity injuries (EI) and dementia are important causes of long-term care (LTC), but they can also cause each other and are often present concurrently. Mobility-limiting EI can increase the risk of dementia, and dementia increases the risk for falls, which are often the cause of EI. When EI and dementia are present together, they can increase their negative effect on long-term care risk. This study aims to assess the strength of this interaction and the role of different body regions and severities of EI regarding LTC risk., Methods: We use Cox proportional-hazard models on LTC as dependent variable. EI (primarily fractures) and dementia (all types) are the central independent variables. We control for age, sex, rehabilitation and 18 relevant comorbidities. Analyses are based on health claims records for 2004-2010 for a random sample of about 122.000 insurants of Germany's largest public health insurance "AOK" aged 65+, about 25.000 of whom entered LTC., Results: Without concurrent dementia, non-severe EI (NSEI) of the lower and both extremities and all kinds of severe EI (SEI) increase LTC risk (HR: hazard ratio with 95% confidence interval. Lower NSEI: HR = 1.09 [1.05-1.14]; both NSEI: HR = 1.36 [1.29-1.44]. Lower SEI: HR = 1.67 [1.57-1.79]; upper SEI: HR = 1.27 [1.19-1.37]; both SEI: HR = 1.94 [1.81-2.07]). Dementia alone increases LTC risk more than fourfold (HR = 4.23 [4.11-4.35]). Taking the interaction of EI and dementia into account, the concurrent presence of EI and dementia tends to increase the LTC risk more than expected for lower as well as upper NSEI and SEI. Summarily, when lower or upper EI and dementia are both present, the LTC risk tends to be higher than expected, suggesting synergistic effects., Conclusions: EI and dementia are important independent risk factors for long-term care. When lower or upper EI and dementia are present together, the resulting long-term care risk is increased disproportionately. Since the concurrent presence of both conditions increases the risk for care need, and a working treatment for dementia is not in sight, preventing EI, lessening the impact of EI and improving the outlook after an EI could help to reduce LTC need in the coming decades.

Background: While acute detrimental effects of benzodiazepine (BDZ), and BDZ and related z-substance (BDZR) use on cognition and memory are known, the association of BDZR use and risk of dementia in the elderly is controversially discussed. Previous studies on cohort or claims data mostly show an increased risk for dementia with the use of BDZs or BDZRs. For Germany, analyses on large population-based data sets are missing., Objective: To evaluate the association between regular BDZR use and incident any dementia in a large German claims data set., Methods: Using longitudinal German public health insurance data from 2004 to 2011 we analyzed the association between regular BDZR use (versus no BDZR use) and incident dementia in a case-control design. We examined patient samples aged≥60 years that were free of dementia at baseline. To address potential protopathic bias we introduced a lag time between BDZR prescription and dementia diagnosis. Odds ratios were calculated applying conditional logistic regression, adjusted for potential confounding factors such as comorbidities and polypharmacy., Results: The regular use of BDZRs was associated with a significant increased risk of incident dementia for patients aged≥60 years (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-1.29). The association was slightly stronger for long-acting substances than for short-acting ones. A trend for increased risk for dementia with higher exposure was observed., Conclusion: The restricted use of BDZRs may contribute to dementia prevention in the elderly.

Background: Studies state profound cross-country differences in healthy life years and its time trends, suggesting either the health scenario of expansion or compression of morbidity. A much-discussed question in public health research is whether the health scenarios are heterogeneous or homogeneous on the subnational level as well. Furthermore, the question arises whether the morbidity trends or the mortality trends are the decisive drivers of the care need-free life years (CFLY), the life years with care need (CLY), and, ultimately, the health scenarios., Methods: This study uses administrative census data of all beneficiaries in Germany from the Statutory Long-Term Care Insurance 2001-2009. We compute the CFLY and CLY at age 65+ for 412 counties. The CFLY and CLY gains are decomposed into the effects of survival and of the prevalence of care need, and we investigate their linkages with the health scenarios by applying multinomial regression models., Results: We show an overall increase in CFLY, which is higher for men than for women and higher for severe than for any care need. However, spatial variation in CFLY and in CLY has increased. In terms of the health scenarios, a majority of counties show an expansion of any care need but a compression of severe care need. There is high spatial heterogeneity, with expansion-counties surrounding compression-counties and vice versa, which is mainly caused by divergent trends in the prevalence of care need. We show that mortality is responsible for the absolute changes in CFLY and CLY, while morbidity is the decisive driver that determines the health scenario of a county., Conclusion: Combining regionalized administrative data and advanced statistical methods permits a deeper insight into the complex relationship between health and mortality. Our findings demonstrate a compression of life years with severe care need, which however, depends on the region of residence. To attenuate regional inequalities, more efforts are needed that improve health by medical and infrastructural interventions and by the exchange of insights in the efficiency of small- and large-area policy measures between the vanguard and the rearguard counties. In future research, the underlying latent mechanisms should be investigated in more detail.

Recent research has revealed an association between hearing impairment and dementia. The objective of this study is to determine the effect of hearing impairment on dementia incidence in a longitudinal study, and whether ear, nose, and throat (ENT) specialist care, care level, institutionalization, or depression mediates or moderates this pathway. The present study used a longitudinal sample of 154,783 persons aged 65 and older from claims data of the largest German health insurer; containing 14,602 incident dementia diagnoses between 2006 and 2010. Dementia and hearing impairment diagnoses were defined according to International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes. We used a Kaplan Meier estimator and performed Cox proportional hazard models to explore the effect of hearing impairment on dementia incidence, controlling for ENT specialist care, care level, institutionalization, and depression. Gender, age, and comorbidities were controlled for as potential confounders. Patients with bilateral (HR = 1.43, p<0.001) and side-unspecified (HR = 1.20, p<0.001) hearing impairment had higher risks of dementia incidence than patients without hearing impairment. We found no significant effect for unilateral hearing impairment and other diseases of the ear. The effect of hearing impairment was only partly mediated through ENT specialist utilization. Significant interaction between hearing impairment and specialist care, care level, and institutionalization, respectively, indicated moderating effects. We discuss possible explanations for these effects. This study underlines the importance of the association between hearing impairment and dementia. Preserving hearing ability may maintain social participation and may reduce the burden associated with dementia. The particular impact of hearing aid use should be the subject of further investigations, as it offers potential intervention on the pathway to dementia.

Importance: Medications that influence the risk of dementia in the elderly can be relevant for dementia prevention. Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are widely used for the treatment of gastrointestinal diseases but have also been shown to be potentially involved in cognitive decline., Objective: To examine the association between the use of PPIs and the risk of incident dementia in the elderly., Design, Setting, and Participants: We conducted a prospective cohort study using observational data from 2004 to 2011, derived from the largest German statutory health insurer, Allgemeine Ortskrankenkassen (AOK). Data on inpatient and outpatient diagnoses (coded by the German modification of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision) and drug prescriptions (categorized according to the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Classification System) were available on a quarterly basis. Data analysis was performed from August to November 2015., Exposures: Prescription of omeprazole, pantoprazole, lansoprazole, esomeprazole, or rabeprazole., Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was a diagnosis of incident dementia coded by the German modification of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision. The association between PPI use and dementia was analyzed using time-dependent Cox regression. The model was adjusted for potential confounding factors, including age, sex, comorbidities, and polypharmacy., Results: A total of 73,679 participants 75 years of age or older and free of dementia at baseline were analyzed. The patients receiving regular PPI medication (n = 2950; mean [SD] age, 83.8 [5.4] years; 77.9% female) had a significantly increased risk of incident dementia compared with the patients not receiving PPI medication (n = 70,729; mean [SD] age, 83.0 [5.6] years; 73.6% female) (hazard ratio, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.36-1.52]; P < .001)., Conclusions and Relevance: The avoidance of PPI medication may prevent the development of dementia. This finding is supported by recent pharmacoepidemiological analyses on primary data and is in line with mouse models in which the use of PPIs increased the levels of β-amyloid in the brains of mice. Randomized, prospective clinical trials are needed to examine this connection in more detail.

Background: Dementia and care need are challenging aging populations worldwide. Lower extremity injury (LEI) in the elderly makes matters worse. Using a multi-state approach, we express the effect of LEI on dementia, care need, and mortality in terms of remaining life expectancy at age 75 (rLE) and years of life lost (YLL)., Methods: A population-based random sample of beneficiaries aged 75-95 years was drawn from the largest public health insurer in Germany in 2004 and followed until 2010 (N 62,103; Mean Age ± SD 81.5 ± 4.8 years; Female 71.2%). We defined a five-state model (Healthy, Dementia, Care, Dementia & Care, Dead), and calculated transition-specific hazard ratios of LEI using Cox regression. The transition probabilities as well as the YLL due to LEI were estimated., Results: LEI significantly increased the risk for each transition, with a maximum risk for the transition from Healthy to Care (HR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.63-1.77) and a minimum risk for the transition from Care to Dead (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.10-1.22). If the elderly had LEI-history, their age-specific mortality was generally higher and their probabilities of transient states peaked at younger ages. At age 75, initially dementia-free and care-independent elderly experiencing LEI lost about 2 years of life, of which more than 90% were life years free of dementia or care need. Dementia patients lost about one and a half year, more than 60% were free of long-term care need., Conclusions: LEI not only casts a large health burden on care need, but is also associated with cognitive decline and shortened rLE. LEI plus dementia extend the relative life time in need of care, despite generally shortening rLE. Using the composite measure YLL may help to better convey these results to the elderly, families, and health professionals. This may strengthen preventive measures as well as improve timely and rehabilitative treatment of LEI, not only in cognitive and physically intact elderly.

Introduction: There have been recent reports about a decline in dementia incidence, but only little is known about trends in the mortality of patients with dementia. Only the simultaneous analysis of both trends can inform whether the reported decline in dementia has led to a compression of dementia into higher ages., Methods: We used health claims data from the largest public health insurer in Germany over the two time periods 2004/07 and 2007/10. Dementia was defined according to the International Classification of Disease 10th revision (ICD-10) numbers G30, G31.0, G31.82, G23.1, F00, F01, F02, F03 and F05.1 or by a prescription of cholinesterase inhibitors or memantine or both. In the two time periods, we observed 502,065 person-years of exposure and 10,881 incident dementia cases and 10,013 person-years of exposure among the newly demented and 3049 deaths. We estimated the relative risks of the two time periods applying proportional hazard models and calculated years with or without dementia using the illness-death model., Results: Dementia incidence was significantly higher in 2006/07 than in 2009/10, whereas mortality with dementia tended to be lower in the first period, albeit statistically significant among women only. Mortality without dementia tended to be higher in the first period for men and remained stable for women. Combining these trends, we found that at age 65 remaining life years with dementia were compressed by a yearly 0.4 months for men and 1.4 months for women. At the same time, remaining life years without dementia increased by a yearly 1.4 months for men and 1.1 months for women., Conclusions: This study provides evidence that the increase in dementia-free life years went together with an absolute compression of life years with dementia. This positive trend was particularly strong among women. Results were controlled for trends in multi-morbidity and care need, suggesting that the postponement in dementia incidence is not simply caused by a delay in diagnosis.

Objectives: To determine the association between hearing impairment and dementia., Design: Cross-sectional study., Setting: Claims data of the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse, the largest public health insurance company in Germany., Participants: Age-stratified sample of all insured persons aged 65 and above in the first quarter of 2007 (N = 1,338,462)., Measurements: Metaregression analysis on the association between regional prevalence of dementia and hearing impairment controlled for major vascular risk factors, including hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and cerebrovascular disease. Dementia and hearing impairment diagnoses were defined according to International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes. Ninety-five regions were distinguished according to the two-digit postal code of the place of residence., Results: A significant association was found between regional prevalences of dementia and hearing impairment that was preserved when controlling for major vascular risk factors (P = .003). Regional dementia prevalence increased by approximately 0.23% when the prevalence of hearing impairment increased by 1 standard deviation., Conclusion: The relationship between hearing impairment and dementia has been repeatedly demonstrated on the individual level. The results of the current study confirm that this relationship also exists on a regional level. These findings underscore the potential role of hearing impairment as a risk factor for dementia that will be relevant for the management of elderly patients in general practice., (© 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.)

Objective: Peroxisome proliferator activated receptor γ-activating drugs show various salutary effects in preclinical models of neurodegenerative disease. The decade-long clinical usage of these drugs as antidiabetics now allows for evaluation of patient-oriented data sources., Methods: Using observational data from 2004-2010, we analyzed the association of pioglitazone and incidence of dementia in a prospective cohort study of 145,928 subjects aged ≥60 years who, at baseline, were free of dementia and insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. We distinguished between nondiabetics, diabetics without pioglitazone, diabetics with prescriptions of <8 calendar quarters of pioglitazone, and diabetics with ≥8 quarters. Cox proportional hazard models explored the relative risk (RR) of dementia incidence dependent on pioglitazone use adjusted for sex, age, use of rosiglitazone or metformin, and cardiovascular comorbidities., Results: Long-term use of pioglitazone was associated with a lower dementia incidence. Relative to nondiabetics, the cumulative long-term use of pioglitazone reduced the dementia risk by 47% (RR = 0.53, p = 0.029). If diabetes patients used pioglitazone <8 quarters, the dementia risk was comparable to those of nondiabetics (RR = 1.16, p = 0.317), and diabetes patients without a pioglitazone treatment had a 23% increase in dementia risk (RR = 1.23, p < 0.001). We did not find evidence for age effects, nor for selection into pioglitazone treatment due to obesity., Interpretation: These findings indicate that pioglitazone treatment is associated with a reduced dementia risk in initially non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus patients. Prospective clinical trials are needed to evaluate a possible neuroprotective effect in these patients in an ageing population., (© 2015 American Neurological Association.)

Recent studies have been cautiously optimistic about declining trends in dementia prevalence and incidence. Newly available claims data from a German public health insurance company covering 30% of the total population permitted us to explore short-term trends based on millions of observations up to the highest ages. Diagnoses stemmed from the inpatient and outpatient services and covered both the community-dwelling population and those living in nursing homes. Data spanning more than 3 years were examined, and the examination revealed a significant yearly reduction between 1% and 2% in the prevalence of dementia among women aged 75 to 84 years. The extent of the reduction was comparable with reports from earlier studies. A similar tendency existed among men, however, statistically not significant. Trends in medical, lifestyle, and societal risk factors of dementia may have contributed to this decline., (Copyright © 2015 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

As the population ages, the numbers of people developing care- and cost-intensive forms of dementia are raising. We investigated the pathways of incident dementia patients to long-term care (LTC) dependence and death, and examined the effects of: (1) the type of the main treating physician, differentiated by neurologists/psychiatrists (NPs) and non-NPs; (2) the prescription of antidementive drugs on the risk of needing LTC, differentiated by the degree of care need. Longitudinal claims data of the largest German public sickness fund of 10,043 incident dementia cases aged 60 years and above were analyzed for the years 2006 to 2010. Cox proportional hazard models were performed to investigate the risk of LTC and death based on what type of physician was treating the patient, and whether the patient was prescribed antidementive drugs; adjusted for age, gender, cardiovascular comorbidities, and the previous LTC level. The patients who were primarily treated by NPs had a significantly lower risk of LTC than patients who were mainly treated by non-NPs (considerable LTC: RR = 0.72, p = 0.000, severe LTC: RR = 0.78, p = 0.000, extreme LTC: RR = 0.67, p = 0.001). They generally had a lower risk of death. Antidementive drug treatment was correlated with an increased risk of LTC (considerable LTC: RR = 1.66, p = 0.000, severe LTC: RR = 1.50, p = 0.000, extreme LTC: RR = 1.48, p = 0.000) but with a decreased risk of death. A higher rate of involvement of specialists in the treatment of dementia patients is associated with a reduced LTC dependence and increased survival of dementia patients. Antidementive drug treatments appear to extend live years with dementia.

Recent analyses revealed that the business cycle at the time of birth influences cognitive functioning at older ages, and that those individuals born during economic boom periods on average display better cognitive functioning later in life. The current study examines the impact of childhood conditions on late-life cognitive functioning and investigates whether they mediate or moderate the effects of the business cycle at the time of birth. The underlying purpose is to find potential starting points for societal interventions that may counterbalance the negative long-term outcomes of adverse living conditions early in life. We use data from 7935 respondents at ages 60+ in eleven European countries from the first three waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The survey data was collected in 2004, 2006/07, and 2008/09. Country fixed-effects models are used to examine the impact of macro-economic deviations in the year of birth and the indicators of childhood circumstances on late-life cognitive functioning. This study shows that the effects of boom and recession periods at birth are not simply mediated or moderated by living conditions during childhood. Conditions at birth have biological long-run effects on late-life cognitive functioning. Individuals born during boom periods display signs of having better cognitive functioning later in life, whereas recessions negatively influence cognition. Furthermore, a series of childhood conditions in and of themselves influence late-life cognition. Good childhood cognition, high education as well as a high social status, favourable living arrangements, and good health have a positive impact. Policy interventions should aim at a better access to school or measures to improve the economic and social situations of disadvantaged households., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background/aims: To project the numbers of pre-obese (BMI 25-29.99 kg/m²) and obese (BMI > 30 kg/m²) men and women aged 50+ in Germany until 2030 and to compare our estimates with actual figures from four European countries and the USA. Estimates are based on six scenarios encompassing improvements as well as worsenings of current trends., Methods: We used pooled data from 1999 to 2009 of the German Microcensus (n = 1,472,547). Using multinomial logistic regression models we estimated age-specific probabilities of pre-obesity and obesity and applied them to the 12th population projection of the Federal Statistical Office., Results: We project overall increases in absolute numbers of pre-obesity ranging between 14.2 and 18.2 million. However, the prevalence of pre-obesity is likely to decrease slightly. In contrast, absolute and relative numbers of obesity are projected to increase, ranging between 7.2 and 15.8 million. The international comparison revealed that pre-obesity prevalences will remain among the highest in Germany, while obesity is projected to fall below current levels of the UK or the USA., Conclusion: Pre-obesity and, particularly, obesity are likely to become a more prominent health issue in Germany in the near future which could have large repercussions for the public health system., (© 2014 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.)

With ageing populations, it becomes increasingly important to understand the determinants of cognitive ability among the elderly. We apply survey data of 17,070 respondents from ten countries to examine several domains of cognitive functioning at ages 60+, and we link them to the macro-economic deviations in the year of birth. We find that economic conditions at birth significantly influence cognitive functioning late in life in various domains. Recessions negatively influence numeracy, verbal fluency, recall abilities, as well as the score on the omnibus cognitive indicator. The results are robust; controlling for current characteristics does not change effect sizes and significance. We discuss possible causal social and biological pathways.