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In the period following the end of World War II, Western European countries have experienced rapid economic growth. In the second half of the fifties, labour shortages emerged, obliging developed countries to have recourse to foreign labour in order to maintain high growth rates. During the sixties, bilateral agreements between European industralised countries (West Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium ... ) and less developed Mediterranean countries (Spain, Portugal, Greece, Yugoslavia, Turkey ... ) produced large-scale migration in Western Europe. The main bulk of Greek emigration has been directed towards West Germany, reaching a peak in 1971, while the reverse flow of returning migrants exceeded emigration from 1974 up to 1981. Data concerning these two flows, from 1960 to 1982, give us the opportunity to test the determinants of both outward and return migration using models based on the Neo-classical, the Keynesian and the Human Capital theories. Under the Neo-classical assumptions about labour and product markets, migration of labour is explained by income differentials prevailing between two regions. The Keynesian model adds unemployment as a cause of migration. Because of the static framework concerning the above models, expectations about future income resulting from migration have been introduced to make the model dynamic. Under the Human Capital theory, migration will occur if the present value of the expected benefits exceeds the present value of the expected costs resulting from migration. Empirical tests of the above model's using OLS or other methods attempting to overcome econometric problems, are presented. Logarithmic forms of emigration equations present the best results. The logarithmic form implicitly assumes that emigration is of a Cobb-Douglas type function. Because of the weaknesses concerning Cobb-Douglas type functions, a translog type emigration function is determined and tests are applied in order to find the best estimation provided by the two functions. Next, we consider migration decisionmaking at the level of an individual who seeks to maximise his welfare in conditions of uncertainty. Introducing utility functions and risk coefficients, the maximisation of welfare yields a stochastic migration function. Furthermore, we examine the migration decision in a binary choice model context. The potential migrant has to decide whether to migrate or not, and an application of the binary logit probability model enables us to estimate the probability that an individual drawn at random from the population will choose to migrate. Finally, we estimate emigration and return migration functions together with employment (or unemployment) and wages functions in a simultaneous equations system in order to avoid simultaneous bias resulting from interdependence between migration and other variables used as explanatory in the previous models.

Age, period and cohort are amongst the most fundamental of demographic variables, and many descriptive and theoretical models of aggregate level demographic data involving two or all three of these date-related variables have been proposed. Models which involve all three variables have been criticised as illogical (Goldstein, 1978, 1979) and statistically insupportable (Glenn, 1976) because of the logical relationship between age, period and cohort. This thesis shows that simultaneous age, period, cohort models are not necessarily illogically conceived, although statistical supportability is a more serious problem. The extent to which theoretical considerations may usefully be incorporated into such models is examined and methods for doing so are also explored. Particular attention is paid to the additive age-period-cohort model, the bimodel (derived from Gabriel's (1971) Hiplot technique), and cohort-experience models (Hobcraft et al, 1979). Developments of these models lead to a technique for model generation, and to theoretically intriguing nuptiality and fertility models. The use of date-related variables with individual-level data is explored using proportional hazards models (Cox, 1972) of World Fertility Survey data, and serious biasing mechanisms are found to be in operation in these circumstances. This analysis shows that age and the pace of previous fertility have a profound effect on current fertility, and finds evidence for a risk of infecundity following childbirth.

In this study, changes in the social and economic structure of a Northern Thai community are analysed in terms of demographic change. Although primarily an empirical study, it is hoped also to contribute to two associated theoretical problems. The first concerns the relationship between economic and demographic change in the process of social evolution. It is argued that rather than one or other variable being 'independent', such changes are a result of complex interaction between the variables over time. The second stems from the debate on the nature of Northern Thai social structure. Here the value of incorporating an analysis of demographic change in an anthropological study is exemplified by the evidence that apparent inconsistencies and contradictions found in the literature on communities in Northern Thailand can be explained to a large extent by an examination of their individual demographic histories. Fieldwork was conducted in Ban Pong Village in Chiengmai Province of Northern Thailand between 1972 and 1974. Following settlement of the village in the 1880s, the valley was gradually cleared for irrigated rice cultivation by a slowly growing population of migrants. Dominance by a minority of the population of the important local trade in fermented tea in the 1920s and 1930s at a time when land resources in the valley were almost exhausted and economic conditions had forced a number of farmers to sell their land, opened the way to the extreme economic polarization found in the community today. The problems facing the community have been compounded by the rapid growth of population occurring since the early 195os, which is largely the result of a decline in infant mortality. A family planning programme introduced to Ban Pong in 1967 provoked an immediate response, and within two years over 40% of fertile married women were using a modern method of birth control. The concomitant changes in marriage and residence patterns are considered in relation to population growth and fertility control.

This thesis focuses on rural-urban migration in Iganna, an ancient Yoruba kingdom located fifty miles west of 0yo in Nigeria. The fieldwork on which this thesis is based took place in Iganna and partly in Ibadan and Lagos between April 1974 and October 1975. The central hypothesis which is put forward in the thesis is that the present-day rural exodus to the urban centres (especially by young people) cannot adequately be accounted for in terms of a 'quest for money' explanation, or, more generally, in terms of formal maximisation theories. The root of this problem, it is argued, lies in the radical changes in the relations of production within the traditional kin-based household units since the inclusion of farm produce in long-distance trade, with the result that farmers become increasingly dependent on/indebted to the middle traders (these are usually their womenfolk) and the hired labourers (these are men from outside Yorubaland). Inherent in this quantitative expansion of commercial farming is a qualitative decrease in social solidarity in the more traditional Yoruba rural communities. The first part of the thesis examines the present-day migration phenomenon as it presents itself in Iganna. While the town has been drained of large numbers of its young people who have been emigrating to the cities since the 1950s, immigration into the area has taken place by Yoruba farmers from other towns, by Fulani pastoralists and by farm labourers from outside Yorubaland. Interviews and questionnaire results concerning the reasons for emigration reveal that most people hold the opinion that there is no money in farming, while emigration to the cities holds the promise of a better and more affluent life. Research into the occupations and living conditions of the people concerned, however, did not fully support such explanations. In the cities the majority of the Iganna migrants live in relative poverty, while in Iganna there are farmers, albeit mainly non-native, who realise good money returns in cash-cropping; although it is true that the majority of the Iganna farmers are chronically hard-up for money. In the second part of the thesis the system of agricultural production in Iganna is examined with why it is unrewarding. A model of the traditional system of agricultural production is presented which explains how farmer- householders used to exert control both over the allocation of their produce and over their dependent co-producers. An analysis is made of the modern changes in agricultural production which were triggered off by the inclusion of farm produce in the external trade with the distant urban markets. In the new system of production farmers no longer depend on their chiefs as patrons and creditors. Instead, their womenfolk who have now become the middle traders in farm produce provide them with credit. Farmers can no longer obtain the assistance of their own household dependants, especially sons and debt-labourers, in order to increase their production. Instead they have to pay for the services of migrant labourers. Hence farmers tend to find themselves socially at the loser's end of the modern system of production, even when they make profits. While the traditional town environment in Iganna tends to disguise these reversed relations of production, it also inhibits farmers from modernising their system of production. At the some time Government policies and initiatives with regard to agriculture have usually proved to be inadequate in coming to grips with the real conditions in which agricultural production is caught in the rural areas. Hence the discrepancies between present-day agricultural production and the rapid social changes in most other domains tend to become more pronounced as time goes on, thus precipitating the large-scale emigration from the rural towns like Iganna to the cities.

The present study looks into the two most conspicuous aspects of the Punjab's geography - population and agriculture - and their interrelationship. With a population of almost 49 million, the Punjab is not only the leading province of Pakistan but contains more people than, for example, Egypt, Iran, Turkey or Thailand. Furthermore, with 69 per cent of Pakistan's net sown area, the Province contains three fifths of the nation's agricultural labour force and produces three fourths of its wheat, one half of its rice and two thirds of its total foodgrains. The Punjab is thus not only Pakistan's "granary" but also one of the world's principal agricultural regions where continuous rapid population growth has created an unabated challenge to economic development. The analysis is directed first to the evolution of the region's population, which increased relatively slowly before 1921, but thereafter grew rapidly in the wake of sharply falling mortality. Regional variations in the Punjab's population growth have been connected not only with the rising rate of natural increase, but also with large scale redistribution due to agricultural expansion via canal irrigation development. Agricultural change bearing a stronger interconnection with rural population change, the urban-rural differential of population growth is studied in detail and this assists in providing an understanding of the patterns of population distribution. Secondly, the investigation focusses on the performance of the region's agriculture which, by employing more than half of Pakistan's total labour force and contributing almost one third of its GNP, plays a dominant role in the nation's development effort. In view of the multidimensionality of agricultural development, variations in the spatial patterning of land utilization and productivity since Independence are analyzed with respect to physical inputs as well as social and institutional forces. Finally, the interrelationships between the region's population growth and agricultural change for the period 1961-72 are investigated with a view to disentangling their nature and intensity. The Province's rapid population growth has not only exerted pressure on its resources and thus created a challenge to development, but has also multiplied its agricultural labour force, the effects of which on land utilization and productivity are analyzed. Correlation analysis reveals important regional variations in the interrelationships between population growth and agricultural change.

This thesis is a study of patterns and differentials in nuptiality and marital fertility in Kenya using data from the Kenya Fertility Survey undertaken in 1977/78 jointly by the Central Bureau of Statistics, Government of Kenya and the World Fertility Survey, London of the International Statistical Institute. Such a survey as this, like many others carried out by the World Fertility Survey in both developing and developed countries, has provided an unprecedented opportunity for greater understanding of the relationship between nuptiality and fertility on the one hand and nuptiality, fertility and socio-economic factors on the other. Such information is very crucial in the formulation and implementation of socio-economic and cultural development plans. The results of this study have confirmed that marriage is a universal and stable institution and that women marry young. Median age at marriage is 18,7 with education having the greatest influence on age at marriage as it provides alternative options to early marriage. However, polygamy is still widespread, accounting for about 30 per cent among all married women in the childbearing age range. Associated with this cultural phenomenon, most Kenyan women marry only once while men often marry women much younger than themselves and with either similar or lower level of education. The study has also confirmed that inspite of the recent rise in age at marriage especially among the young population during the last 15-20 years, corresponding to the expansion in education services and to increased urbanization, fertility remains one of the highest in the world. However, education and urbanization appear to have the greatest influence on fertility. Women with secondary and higher education experience the lowest fertility and women with lower primary education, the highest. Rural-urban differentials in fertility were found to be even more marked, with metro politan women having, on average, one child less than rural residents. This seems to be one of the few African countries south of the Sahara where there is convincing evidence of rural-urban differential in fertility in the expected direction. Polygamous women, too, were found to have lower fertility than their monogamous counterparts. The study of the proximate determinants of fertility (intermediate fertility variables) using Bongaarts model suggested that the proportion married among the population, level of use of contraception and postpartum infecundability (influenced by breastfeeding) are significant in explaining marital fertility differentials. Modernization in the form of education and urbanization has had offsetting effects upon the intermediate variables by reducing lactation and increasing contraception. However, the proportion using contraception (limited mainly among those with secondary and higher education and the metropolitan residents) is too small to have any significant impact on the overall level of fertility. The lower level of fertility observed particularly among the metropolitan, coast and Muslim categories of population may be accounted for by the prevalence of venereal diseases, unreported contraception and induced abortion.

The problem of the relationship between population and food supply in Menoufiya is a small scale example of that facing the whole of Egypt. The main problem is not as a result of insufficient production of food from the land, but as a result of continuously increasing population with high density which causes pressure on the limited cultivated land. It is important to understand the population characteristics of Menoufiya, which are even distribution of high density; high fertility; a high proportion working in agricultural activities; a majority of young people; and high illiteracy especially among females and farmers. One response to increasing population has been heavy out-migration to the large cities of Egypt. Despite the fact that Menoufiya is facing a great problem in increasing food production caused by decreasing acreage of land; frag mentation of farms; disguised unemployment; limited machinery and increased landless, the region is one of the main agricultural regions in Egypt. It is characterized by one of the highest productivities for food among the governorates of Egypt, because of the excellent environmental conditions - fertile soils with flat surface, abundant water of good quality from the Nile and its canals, and warm temperatures which permit year-round plant growth and the intensive system of farming. The main food crops in the region are maize, wheat, broad and soya beans covering about 50 per cent of the total cropped area. Vegetables are grown all the year-round, especially potatoes, tomatoes and beans. In addition, the region is one of the main producers of : fruit such as citrus, grapes and bananas. There is a large area cultivated with clover as a fodder for animals in winter, but animal feed is in chronic short supply especially in summer. The study of food production in Menoufiya shows that it is abundant and increasing, being able to feed the dense population of the region as well as some of these in major urban centres especially Greater Cairo in most vegetables, fruit, and animal products. In fact, there is no shortage of the majority of foodstuffs (except for wheat) in the region at the present time, but the problem may become more acute in the future as the population will increase more rapidly than food production. The solution of the problem of population and food resources in Menoufiya - as well as in Egypt - must be sought both in accelerating the development of agricultural processes and in slowing down the growth of population through social and economic development. Such development is not in isolation, for Menoufiya provides migrants to Egypt's large cities and to some other Middle Eastern countries. So the problem is not just one of a man-land ratio, but of population in relation to total available resources.

Patterns and processes of post-war Tunisian migration are examined in this thesis from a spatial perspective The concept of 'migration regions' proved particularly interesting in this context, highlighting the orderly character of internal migration Comparison of different taxonomic procedures for transforming interaction matrices not only illustrated the advantages and disadvantages of different clustering techniques, but also facilitated explanation of contemporary migration patterns The hypothesis of the 'mobility transition' provides an interesting yardstick against which trends in internal migration and other mobility characteristics may be measured Although the development of Tunisian migration resembles in some respects the pattern prescribed by the mobility transition hypothesis, it IS shown that it would be wrong to conclude that the evolution of Tunisian migration is a predetermined unilinear process International migration grew rapidly in importance to Tunisian job seekers in the late 1960s and early 1970s, becoming more important in some regions of Tunisia than out-migration to Tunis. Calculation of migration quotients for emigration to France and Libya shows that international movement of workers has been a highly selective process, not only with regard to migrant characteristics, but also with regard to regions of origin and destination An attempt is made to explain the changing pattern of Tunisian emigration, and to identify elements of spatial order within the evolving emigration process migration both at the internal and international scale is closely associated with migrants aspirations for occupational and social mobility. An understanding of the complex relationships between these different forms of mobility is a prerequisite to meaningful migration planning. The thesis concludes by out ling the relevance to policy formulation of spatial analysis of migration and employment which the Tunisian government might adopt for migration and manpower planning,

The aim of this study was to examine the Zoroastrians of Yazd, Kerman and Tehran to determine whether or not they differed from each other genetically and from the host population of Iran; to study the Parsis and Iranis - Zoroastrians Who had migrated to India in the 7th Century A.D., and compare the results with those of neighbouring Indian populations. It was hoped to obtain a large number of samples in order to make accurate comparisons, but, owing to the contemporary complex political situation, this proved impossible. Attempts were made to explain the variants in terms of present day demo graphic theories but were hampered by the paucity of published data. Blood, serum and isoenzyme group examinations were made. Serological and electro0ioretic techniques were used to determine ABo, MNSs, Rh, Kell, Duffy, KP, haptoglobin, adenylate kinase, acid fiiosphatase, esterase D and 0ios0ioglucanutase factors in a total of 469 Zoroastrians. Demographic features of contemporary Zoroastrians were studied and the results compared with those of Iranians and Parsis. (No demographic data was available for the Iranis of India.) This revealed that the fertility ratio of the Zoroastrians is lower and present day infant mortality higher than those for the latter groups. Serological test results together with the demographic findings suggest that the long practise of consanquinial marriage may account for the differences which we can observe today.

The main objective of this thesis is to define the population structure of Shahrestan Nowshahr, Iran, by determining whether the population comprises one large, panmictic unit or small, localized breeding clusters, and the extent to which the pattern of mobility affects this structure. This study has been carried out by quantifying the nature and extent of migration within and from outside the study area. The components of analysis have included the past and. present demographic structure, the distribution and localization of dialects and languages, the spatial (matrimonial) and temporal (parent and offspring) continuity of gene flow, the orientation of movement, the extent of commonality of surnames and the pattern of relatedness and kinship within and among the subdivisions. The results have been used to assess the extent to which genetic mobility has been determined by geographic, demographic, linguistic and cultural constraints placed on the breeding size of the population. The consequences upon the genetic structure of the population in terms of departure from random mating and panmixia and the potential for genetic differentiation through local, selective pressures and random genetic drift have also been projected. Inferences from these analyses Indicate that the interaction of these factors have influenced and determined the migration pattern and the extent of the reproductive isolation of the Shahrestan. Shahrestan Nowshahr is not a homogeneous unit, but is composed of a series of local, partially isolated units with little genetic flow between them, thus limiting the size of the population, contributing to deviation from panmixia and conducive to random differentiation of local gene frequencies. The temporal increase in the range of movement indicates the breaking down of isolation, due to an overall change in the demographic, cultural and socio-economic structure of the population, providing greater possibilities for admixture and genetic homogeneity.

This is a study of the process of labour migration from Turkey to the federal Republic of Germany. It is based on fieldwork carried out in the fRG. A major claim is made about methods, namely that in the study of urban societies, participant observation among a small group - the traditional approach of anthropology - can be fruitfully supplemented by a larger survey based on Questionnaire interviews. This is the approach of this study. At the core of it is a survey of 267 migrants in different towns and industries in the fRG. Migration is understood as a dynamic social process and the international labour migration emerges as an aspect of differential regional development. Within this framework migrants are seen as decision making individuals, negotiating two systems with conflicting expectations and pressures, those of Turkey and Germany. Their decisions are made with the help of their social networks which are based on kin, fellow-countrymen and friends. Empirically this thesis shows that labour migration is very selective and highly organized. Migrants work in low-skill, manual, low status positions that are left open by the indigenous population. Their positions in the labour and housing markets reflect their marginal positions and vulnerability. There is variation, however, within the migrant population. The variation appears as a result of differences in migrant ideology and such differences determine the migrants' plans for the future and their return to Turkey.

The present thesis examines urbanisation in a framework that relates it to population growth, socio-economic development and rural-urban migration, with special reference to the city of Constantine. The study is organised in three parts. Following the introductory section, the first chapter focuses on the high population growth rate and reviews the main causes and consequences. It defines the setting of the problems in a national and regional context. Chapter Two discusses the historical trends of urbanisation and urban growth and offers some hypotheses. to be tested. A review of fundamental conceptual and methodological issues, which must be considered when dealing with the process of population movement, is found in Chapter Three. Chapter Four puts the study area into its regional setting and examines links between urbanisation and development. Considering that these four chapters would serve as a basis for a clearer understanding of the factors underlying population movements, Chapter Five attempts to define the role of migration in Constantine's growth and the possible reasons for its markedly changing population growth rate over time. Based on the census results, Chapter Six identifies the major internal streams to Constantine in a framework that relates them to the regional development patterns. Here a spatial interaction model is used to measure the salient factors that enhance and impede regional migration; while Chapter Seven presents the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the migrant population. To conclude the analysis of migration to Constantine, Chapter Eight analyses the*spatial growth of the city and examines the distribution of the migrant population within the city. Finally, the concluding section offers an overall summary, conclusion and implications, stressing the view that if regional disparities are to be reduced and thus a slown-down in urbanward migration to a more manageable dimension, the solution to these various problems associated with urbanisation is not a simple policy but a package of policies integrating urban development policy, judiciously selected complementary policies in the area of rural development as well as a population policy

In the early 1960s, Turkey participated in the migration movement to Western European countries which urgently needed manpower for their rapidly developing industry. Most Turkish migrant workers, about 80% of the total number, went to The Federal Republic of Germany as temporary recruited labour under the name of Guest Workers (Gastarbeiten). They were mostly young,male, skilled or semi-skilled manual workers, coming predominantly from the developed part of Turkey. They thus had industrial experience or at least experience of living in a city. The migration flow may not be characterised as spontaneous, because it has been encouraged by the Turkish Government and organised by Turkish State Organisations in the receiving countries. In other words, State agreements and encouragement of labour exportation have played a very important role. Turkey signed its first bilateral agreement with the Federal Republic of Germany on October 30th, 1961. This agreement was followed by a series of treaties with Austria (1964), France (1966), Sweden (1967), Australia (1967) and so on. It is a reasonable estimate that between October 1961 and June 1979, approximately 1,750,000 (including workers' families) Turks experienced Western European social living (culture) in a working environment. Of these, perhaps more than two hundred thousand have returned to Turkey permanently after a period of residence abroad. Half of these returned migrant workers stayed abroad for a short period of time, about a year. Abadan claims that 42% of returnees remained in immigrant countries for less than a year. However, the empirical problem which confronts the social scientist studying Turkey is that the official statistics allow for only a very rough estimate of total numbers of returnees, their period of residence abroad, and give virtually no indication of their whereabouts in the country. This study took as its starting point the incompatability of the "dependence" (centre-periphery relations) theory and the modernisation and development theory approach to labour migration. It is argued that analysis of empirical data supports the former. Data collected was intended to show the effect of the experience of working and living in western industrial societies on Turkish migrant workers who had been abroad for at least three years, returned home permanently and settled in the city of Kayseri, Turkey. In the broadest sense, the objectives of the study were two fold; in the first instance, it sought to define the demographic characteristics and motivations of the migrants and to investigate the socio-economic and socio-cultural effects that migration had upon them; in the second instance, it attempted to discover what socio-economic and cultural effects the migration experience had upon the lives of migrants when they returned to the city of Kayseri. In particular the effects of the migration experience on returnees' employment, housing (investment), family and education of their children were examined.

This research attempts to explain spatial variations in rural depopulation rates which were evident at the sub-municipal level in Japan during the period 1965 to 1975. A random sample of 168 'agricultural settlements' in Kyoto and Shiga prefectures is taken, and net migration rates estimated using the Basic Demographic Equation. The independent variable is a composite expression termed 'level of living'. Approximately 60 variables, grouped into nine domains, are combined to form this index. Account is taken of the' 'behavioural' aspects of environmental perception and subsequent migration by incorporating priority preference weightings on domain scores, using results derived from a questionnaire survey. In particular, two population sub-groups are identified, representing 'young family' migrants and 'young individual' migrants, and domain weightings for the construction of level of living scores are adjusted accordingly. The correlation coefficient between net migration rates and levels of living for the 'young individual' sub-group is r = 0.67, whilst for the 'young family' sub-group it is only r = o. 17. The reasons for this disparity are discussed in the concluding chapters of this research, when evidence drawn from three intensive village surveys is utilized to provide a more detailed understanding of the specific case histories of individual and family migrants.

Tudor and Stuart England was a mobile society. The generally high levels of geographical mobility went hand in hand with various degrees of social and occupational mobility. Some of the most important movements were of people from the countryside to the town, as they were significant as a transfer of resources and an agency of social mobilitYJ their chronological and geographical flows provide an index of both changing urban fortunes and of the levels of spatial integration and economic development upon which these changing fortunes were based. Amongst the types of rural-urban migration, the movement of teenagers to a town to serve an apprenticeship is a particularly valuable topic for study. The training of labour is important in any society and in preindustrial England output could only be raised in many industries through a greater input of labour. The areas from which the apprentices were drawn represent the scale of organisation, economic social and spatial, current in sixteenth and seventeenth century England. This gives an indication of the level of development of the country as it underwent the transition from a society largely based on the discrete daily and weekly contacts around the provincial central places, through an increase in scale to a regional integration based upon county towns, to a~hesive national system. Three county towns were selected, Chester, Gloucester and Shrewsbury, as they each had a good series of apprenticeship records; they represented the foci characteristic of the regional scale of integration and they were associated one with another along the England-Wales border, thus forming a convenient spatial system. The results of the study confirm the findings on mobility in sixteenth and seventeenth century England. Most migrants moved over short distances and a few made long journeys. The propensity to move varied with the status of the apprentices' backgroundsJ generally the higher the status the longer the distance moved. Many apprentices trained in an occupation different to that of their fathers and some of these represented a significant degree of social mobility. Nevertheless, association within the s~me sub-group was common, either based upon the same raw material or upon the type of work undertaken. The three towns organised a regional scale of integration around themselves, reinforcing their roles as important suppliers of goods and services to their hinterlands, the extent of which remained constant throughout the period studied.