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The United States and Cuba have long had a contentious relationship. Following Fidel Castro’s revolution, the antagonism was bolstered by the Soviet Union’s support for Cuba. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, it was predicted by some that the end of Castro’s regime was near and the United States would be there to help with democratization of Cuba. Instead, Castro has managed to stay in power and the U.S. and Cuba have failed to achieve rapprochement. This thesis analyzes the Balsero rafter crisis of 1994, the use of Guantanamo Bay (and subsequent controversy) as a detention center for enemy combatants from the Afghanistan conflict, Obama’s normalization of diplomatic relations with Cuba, and finally the enactment of the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act (LIBERTAD), otherwise known as Helms-Burton. In doing so, the aim is to determine whether culture, structure, or the actions of individual leaders factored more predominately into the outcome of the four events., http://archive.org/details/uscubarelationsa1094562785, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

What are the conditions and factors affecting intrastate conflict recurrence? This thesis tests the effect of the type of conflict outcome, the use of peacekeeping forces, and the presence of lootable resources on the recurrence of intrastate conflict. Using the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) datasets, this thesis performs a linear regression analysis for internal conflicts from 1946 to 2014. Results confirm that the risk of conflict recurrence reduces over time. Peace agreements show a lower likelihood of conflict recurrence than military victories. The thesis finds ambiguous results for lootable and non-lootable resources. Lootable diamonds, opium/poppy, and petroleum correlate with more conflict recurrence, whereas non-lootable diamonds correlates with less recurrence. Coca, cannabis, and opium/poppy production yielded ambiguous results. The presence of peacekeeping forces does not demonstrate a statistically significant effect on conflict recurrence. Analyzing the conflict in Colombia, this work finds that illicit drugs and onshore oil production have led to conflict recurrence. The study also shows that peace agreements have helped Colombia avoid conflict recurrence. Overall, the study shows some dynamics of conflict recurrence and provides new venues for future research., http://archive.org/details/intrastateconfli1094561236, Colonel, Air Force, Colombia, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The Saudi–Iranian rivalry forms one of the most important components of the security dynamics of the Middle East. The rivalry has intensified with each country toiling to undermine the other. This dynamic directly affects the prevailing fragile security situation of the Middle East. Although their competition appears to be an ideological one, geo-political motives primarily drive this rivalry. Both countries use religion as an instrument to influence populations across the region. Saudi Arabia and Iran have not directly confronted each other except to exchange hatred rhetoric. Both countries, however, are effectively utilizing the prevailing unrest and instability in adjoining countries and further complementing the instability by sponsoring proxy wars. Their unending quest for influence even at the cost of other countries’ turmoil has devastating impacts for the region. It is imperative to understand the methods both countries are using to enhance their influence and undermine the other in the arena outside their own territory. Understanding the inherent motives of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry and their methods of execution can assist the international comity of nations to play a more productive role in engaging both countries for peace in the region., http://archive.org/details/thesaudiiranianr1094561358, Lieutenant Colonel, Army, Pakistan, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis explores the motivations behind Bolivia’s refusal to sell natural gas to neighboring country Chile. It focuses on the backlash surrounding the 2003 Gas Wars and the non-cooperation that followed. Specifically, it analyzes two cases—in the 2000s and 1950s—when Bolivia successfully cooperated with Chile in the petroleum sector. While many scholars argue that rivalry has motivated Bolivia's decision to avoid cooperating with Chile, this thesis challenges that position. This thesis hypothesizes that three factors, when all present, contribute to Bolivia’s decision not to cooperate with Chile in the natural gas sector. The first factor that influences this decision is disillusionment with the governing administration’s economic policy. This disillusionment leads to both the administration losing credibility and the populace approaching its policy with distrust. If this factor is present, it creates the opportunity for oppositional political elites to leverage the other two factors, resource nationalism and rivalry with Chile—Bolivia’s most politically charged and compelling narratives—to fully impede cooperation. This thesis tests this theory on both case studies., http://archive.org/details/doesrivalryalone1094561372, Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Mired in turmoil, the current state of Venezuelan politics is rife with political corruption and abuses of power. This thesis uses resource curse theory and governance datasets to analytically study changes in Venezuela over time to identify how the 2014 petroleum market crash affected the instances of political corruption. The argument shows that, when petroleum rents plummeted, financial and political incentives caused the focus of the Venezuelan government’s corruption behaviors to change from controlling the economy’s profits to regime survival. The governance data used reveals that in the period surrounding the 2014 petroleum market price decline, incentives behind political corruption shifted from cashing in on oil profits to consolidating political power, which affected the types of corruption actions used by government officials. The findings in this thesis demonstrate that governments without institutional constraints are likely to use different kinds of politically corrupt activities to stay in power during periods of decreased petroleum rent than they do when experiencing windfall incomes. The lack of institutional constraint in Venezuela caused by the willful abuse of power, as well as insufficient government capacity, signals that hurried efforts to rebuild Venezuela must emphasize the quality of governance and the policing of corruption before focusing on repairing the economy., http://archive.org/details/theeffectofdecli1094562257, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The factors that fuel the success or failure of insurgencies are an important and debated topic in national security circles. This work examines the cases of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) in Colombia, an insurgency failure, and the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) in Nicaragua, an insurgency success, to determine why certain Latin American insurgencies succeed while others fail. Common theories, particularly in Latin America, attribute successful insurgencies to U.S. intervention on behalf of the host nation government, or focus on structural and material factors or regime type. Though these factors play a role, insurgent success in Latin America relies more heavily on the insurgency’s ability to cultivate a broad-based coalition of support both externally and domestically, coupled with shrewd political strategy that focuses on pragmatism and compromise. By examining state strategies for dealing with insurgents and best practices for counterinsurgency, the author concludes that efforts focused on alleviating the population’s concerns through legitimate societal and political reform, coupled with attempts to undermine the insurgent’s critical base of support, are the most efficient strategies for successful counterinsurgency operations.

With the growing discussion on great power competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), few studies offer a quantitative analysis of the growing influence of the PRC across the globe. We hypothesized that the various national levers employed by the PRC would be associated with more favorable foreign policies from Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, though not to the extent that some believe. In order to measure influence, United Nations general assembly votes (specifically votes relating to human rights issues) were utilized to assess the relationship between the voting patterns of LAC countries and the voting patterns of the PRC. Our statistical analysis finds that many factors thought to be consequential have no consistent relationship to China’s geopolitical influence. However, military arms sales were found to be positively related to agreement with China’s UN votes. In contrast, recognition of Taiwan and relative trade balance were found to have negative effects. Taken as whole, the available evidence undercuts the claim that the PRC is making significant strides, or hurting America's standing, in the LAC region.

For the last 30 years, the Department of Defense (DoD) has been asked in various ways to measure the effectiveness of the DoD counterdrug mission. In this thesis, I advance the idea of using the drug purity data as the best and only stand-alone metric to determine if drug interdiction efforts are reducing the amount of illicit drugs available in the United States. I also present a cost-benefit equation the DoD can utilize to determine the cost effectiveness of the counterdrug mission. The intangible benefits and unintended consequences of the DoD counterdrug mission are relayed and include developing partner nation relations and building partner capacity, positive and negative impacts on military readiness, and promoting the incorrect idea that the military can and should be used to solve any national problem. I conclude that the DoD cannot measure the outcomes of the counterdrug mission; however, it can combine counterdrug mission data already collected with key performance indicators inside of a pattern and trend methodology to better correlate the DoD counterdrug mission and supply-side outcome goals.

This thesis analyzes the political responses of Ecuador and Bolivia to the economic crisis in Venezuela. The primary question I have sought to answer is why the Ecuadorian and Bolivian governments have realigned politically or continue to embrace Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian policies. Ecuador and Bolivia were among many countries that elected leftist populist leaders influenced by Chávez’s success and are among the few Latin American countries that still have a leftist government. Methods used are the analysis of political reforms and legislation, and public statements of leaders. This thesis demonstrates that Ecuador has distanced itself from its institutional alliances with Venezuela as a result of an economic downturn and the emergence of corruption scandals but continues to implement leftist policies, while Bolivia is still benefiting from a natural gas boom and has done little to change course considering Venezuela’s economic demise.

This thesis asks to what extent and why Chinese engagement has influenced the Latin American economic outlook and foreign policy changes in the twenty-first century and uses Chile and Mexico as case studies. The extent of Chinese engagement is established first because it is variable by country. Economic and foreign policy changes are then examined through the lens of Chinese engagement. This research found that economic and foreign policy changes were influenced by a mixture of domestic agency and growing Chinese hegemony, with Chinese engagement and influence being commensurate with the level of economic compatibility., http://archive.org/details/theextentofchine1094561258, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The purpose of this thesis is to assess how a small nation like Costa Rica, which is committed to peace and lacks a military, is able to safeguard national security and territorial sovereignty while responding to a series of hostile external disputes with neighboring Nicaragua. It examines how Costa Rica’s actions and decisions in response to these disputes supports or impugns established tenets of international relations theory. Three case studies examine distinct periods of Costa Rican relations with Nicaragua, extending from the abolition of Costa Rica’s military in 1948 to the present-day. The findings are evaluated with respect to realist, liberal and constructivist theory. Costa Rica’s behavior best supports tenets of constructivist theory as it is undoubtedly influenced by socially constructed norms. These norms include a strong commitment to diplomatic dispute resolution, a general public perception that Nicaragua cannot be trusted and that some domestic capacity to employ force is an acceptable deviation from the nation’s commitment to diplomacy., http://archive.org/details/costaricaapeacef1094561320, Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

American society conventionally expects immigrants to assimilate, yet contemporary views question whether Latin American immigrants are choosing to conform to this standard. However, this perspective does not account for the structural constraints placed upon immigrants through the influence of U.S. foreign and immigration policy. During the Cold War, two cases—Cuba in the 1960s and El Salvador in the 1980s—demonstrated differential U.S. policy responses to sustained, large-scale exile migrations to the United States, particularly to Miami and Los Angeles. In these cases, the U.S. response was to welcome and provide a positive reception to Cubans in Miami, while Salvadorans were excluded and constrained by the negative reception afforded to them as illegal migrants in Los Angeles, with both responses stemming from U.S. foreign policy interests in Latin America. Twenty-five years after the first wave of exiles from each of these countries, both second generations appear to be assimilating in terms of educational attainment, but Salvadoran-Americans lag behind Cuban-Americans in occupational attainment and income levels. These differential outcomes indicate that reception contexts—government responses, economic opportunity, societal attitudes, and presence of ethnic communities—may accelerate or delay exile groups’ rates of structural assimilation, with legal status playing a major role in determining whether groups assimilate upward or downward., http://archive.org/details/cubanandsalvador1094559562, Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Over the last decade, the U.S. military and homeland security research groups have contemplated the issue of how to counter unmanned drones. Recently, border security agencies responsible for securing the U.S.–Mexico border are having to contend with the emerging threat of Mexico’s drug cartel narcotics-smuggling drones, also known as narco-drones. Narco-drones are an example of cartel innovation for smuggling, among other deviant purposes, that U.S. border security will need a strategy to counter. This study aimed to build on the conceptual framework related to hostile drones in the airspace and specifically to find a strategy that the Department of Homeland Security could pursue to manage the narco-drone problem in the border-zone airspace. The author argues that the Mexican drug cartels adopt innovative drone tactics in response to border security measures or lack thereof, as well as through organizational learning. This thesis concludes that leveraging U.S. military experience, anti-drone doctrine, and detection assets -developed for countering terrorist drones in the war zones of Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan is an effective strategy for countering narco-drones at the U.S.–Mexico border.

The international cocaine market has transformed the Caribbean Basin into the most violent region in the world. Against the onslaught of drugs and violence, interstate security cooperation and intelligence sharing are increasingly prominent features of state security strategies. The evolution of security cooperation has pushed cocaine flows from the Caribbean to Central America and the Eastern Pacific. Overtime, increasing state capacity and cooperation has shaped cocaine trafficking and cut into the profit margins of cartel organizations. This thesis examines the evolution of maritime countertrafficking networks and argues that increased cooperation in the Insular Caribbean caused narcotraffickers to shift trafficking routes to regions without multilateral security mechanisms. Using naval strengths, interdiction data, and government estimates, this thesis determined that security cooperation shaped current smuggling routes. This thesis concludes that multilateral security arrangements are more effective against transnational criminal networks than unilateral state action. It points to holes in the regional security network and calls for a unified approach to transnational criminal networks. The regional hegemon has an outsized impact on regional security and must take steps to build and maintain multilateral relationships between Mexico and Central America to effectively control smuggling in the Eastern Pacific.

In this paper, I examined U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, primarily during the Cold War. I sought to answer the following questions: (1) What factors influenced the behavior of lower-level U.S. officials stationed in Latin America at the time? and (2) How much policy-affecting agency did these officials have? Using primary source documentation contained in the State Department’s Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) volumes to the maximum extent possible, I examined the following case studies: Guatemala circa 1954, Costa Rica circa 1948, and lastly, present-day Bolivia. In my research and analysis, I shed light on the dynamic that existed between Washington policymakers and lower-level officials stationed in-region, mainly ambassadors. My analysis resulted in the following conclusions: (1) anti-communist Cold War hysteria clouded the judgment of lower-level officials, (2) pressure from Washington elites largely influenced the behavior of these officials, and (3) U.S. officials stationed in-region had relatively little policy-affecting agency. Ultimately, I make a case for a U.S. foreign policy apparatus that empowers lower-level officials stationed in-region. This arrangement will prove most effective in observing, analyzing, and appreciating the nuances present in foreign countries, which would result in a flexible and tailored U.S. foreign policy.

Theory attempting to explain poverty and development is vast, varied, and, in many ways, inconclusive. In this thesis, I review core literature on the Industrial Revolution and the rise of Western Europe and the Asian Tigers, finding that their economic development rested on a cycle of three fundamental principles: rule of law, access to capital, and strong, yet restrained, bureaucratic capacity. With an emphasis on Latin America, I then conduct a two-step analysis to determine the universal applicability of these factors. First, I analyze the implementation and outcomes of import substitution industrialization, finding an ambiguous correlation between this landmark set of economic policies and economic outcomes. Second, I develop a case study of Mexico that demonstrates a strong correlation between economic development and the three underpinnings of rule of law, access to capital, and strong, yet restrained, bureaucratic capacity. The thesis concludes that these three factors are universally crucial for sustained growth and development. This research also finds that the institutions that provide for these principles can take vastly different forms, and, in doing so, it joins a growing body of scholarship that emphasizes the significance of institutional function over institutional form.

What are the conditions and factors affecting intrastate conflict recurrence? This thesis tests the effect of the type of conflict outcome, the use of peacekeeping forces, and the presence of lootable resources on the recurrence of intrastate conflict. Using the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) datasets, this thesis performs a linear regression analysis for internal conflicts from 1946 to 2014. Results confirm that the risk of conflict recurrence reduces over time. Peace agreements show a lower likelihood of conflict recurrence than military victories. The thesis finds ambiguous results for lootable and non-lootable resources. Lootable diamonds, opium/poppy, and petroleum correlate with more conflict recurrence, whereas non-lootable diamonds correlates with less recurrence. Coca, cannabis, and opium/poppy production yielded ambiguous results. The presence of peacekeeping forces does not demonstrate a statistically significant effect on conflict recurrence. Analyzing the conflict in Colombia, this work finds that illicit drugs and onshore oil production have led to conflict recurrence. The study also shows that peace agreements have helped Colombia avoid conflict recurrence. Overall, the study shows some dynamics of conflict recurrence and provides new venues for future research.

States (principals) frequently employ pro-government militias (agents) in low intensity conflicts with mixed results. In some cases, principal and agent interests diverge or the principal loses control over its agent, which devolves into an autonomous terrorist, warlord, or criminal organization. Looking at historical cases of Latin American pro-government militias from Colombia (Self-Defense groups, Convivirs, and Hometown Soldiers) and Peru (Rondas Campesinas), I examined the principal-agent problem in the context of state-sponsored, pro-government militias and answered the following question: How do sponsor states succeed or fail in maintaining positive control and influence over pro-government militias? States fail when they grant too much autonomy and firepower to militias and succeed when they limit militias’ autonomy by subjecting them to a tailored combination of control mechanisms: monitoring, screening, sanctions, and rewards. Cases from Colombia and Peru demonstrate that the best way to control militias and employ them in counterinsurgency is by incorporating them as legitimate auxiliaries of the armed forces. Incorporation of a militia into the armed forces greatly reduces the principal-agent problem, the associated risk of diverging interests and objectives, and the future pain of demobilization. Arming militias with restricted use weapons, outsourcing their financing to private benefactors, and granting them too much autonomy is a recipe for disaster., http://archive.org/details/theprincipalagen1094559551, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis investigates why U.S. space cooperation efforts with Latin American countries have decreased over the past three decades. This thesis also addresses the following questions: Is the reduced number of U.S.–Latin American space cooperation projects an indication of a loss of U.S. regional influence? Is there an indication of a shift in the partner of choice? If so, what are the factors alienating the U.S. and preventing the establishment of cooperative space efforts, and what can be done about them? This thesis argues that U.S.-Latin American space cooperation has decreased due to the increased availability of providers, the maturing domestic space sectors, and the committed drive toward technological independence. Latin American countries are pursuing space capabilities mainly to support socio-economic development efforts. Their specific resource constraints motivate them to pursue cooperative projects. The increasing availability of providers allows for greater flexibility, and Latin American countries chose engagements that best suit their requirements. Therefore, the smaller number of cooperative U.S.–Latin American space projects is not an indication of a loss of U.S. regional influence but instead of a competitive market with pragmatic consumer base. Thus, the United States is not being alienated but challenged to engage on equitable terms.

The Saudi–Iranian rivalry forms one of the most important components of the security dynamics of the Middle East. The rivalry has intensified with each country toiling to undermine the other. This dynamic directly affects the prevailing fragile security situation of the Middle East. Although their competition appears to be an ideological one, geo-political motives primarily drive this rivalry. Both countries use religion as an instrument to influence populations across the region. Saudi Arabia and Iran have not directly confronted each other except to exchange hatred rhetoric. Both countries, however, are effectively utilizing the prevailing unrest and instability in adjoining countries and further complementing the instability by sponsoring proxy wars. Their unending quest for influence even at the cost of other countries’ turmoil has devastating impacts for the region. It is imperative to understand the methods both countries are using to enhance their influence and undermine the other in the arena outside their own territory. Understanding the inherent motives of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry and their methods of execution can assist the international comity of nations to play a more productive role in engaging both countries for peace in the region.

This thesis explores the motivations behind Bolivia’s refusal to sell natural gas to neighboring country Chile. It focuses on the backlash surrounding the 2003 Gas Wars and the non-cooperation that followed. Specifically, it analyzes two cases—in the 2000s and 1950s—when Bolivia successfully cooperated with Chile in the petroleum sector. While many scholars argue that rivalry has motivated Bolivia's decision to avoid cooperating with Chile, this thesis challenges that position. This thesis hypothesizes that three factors, when all present, contribute to Bolivia’s decision not to cooperate with Chile in the natural gas sector. The first factor that influences this decision is disillusionment with the governing administration’s economic policy. This disillusionment leads to both the administration losing credibility and the populace approaching its policy with distrust. If this factor is present, it creates the opportunity for oppositional political elites to leverage the other two factors, resource nationalism and rivalry with Chile—Bolivia’s most politically charged and compelling narratives—to fully impede cooperation. This thesis tests this theory on both case studies.

This thesis asks to what extent and why Chinese engagement has influenced the Latin American economic outlook and foreign policy changes in the twenty-first century and uses Chile and Mexico as case studies. The extent of Chinese engagement is established first because it is variable by country. Economic and foreign policy changes are then examined through the lens of Chinese engagement. This research found that economic and foreign policy changes were influenced by a mixture of domestic agency and growing Chinese hegemony, with Chinese engagement and influence being commensurate with the level of economic compatibility.

The purpose of this thesis is to assess how a small nation like Costa Rica, which is committed to peace and lacks a military, is able to safeguard national security and territorial sovereignty while responding to a series of hostile external disputes with neighboring Nicaragua. It examines how Costa Rica’s actions and decisions in response to these disputes supports or impugns established tenets of international relations theory. Three case studies examine distinct periods of Costa Rican relations with Nicaragua, extending from the abolition of Costa Rica’s military in 1948 to the present-day. The findings are evaluated with respect to realist, liberal and constructivist theory. Costa Rica’s behavior best supports tenets of constructivist theory as it is undoubtedly influenced by socially constructed norms. These norms include a strong commitment to diplomatic dispute resolution, a general public perception that Nicaragua cannot be trusted and that some domestic capacity to employ force is an acceptable deviation from the nation’s commitment to diplomacy.

Did Franklin Delano Roosevelt escalate confliict with Japan and Germany before Pearl Harbor, or did he attempt to avoid war? To what extent did U.S. public opinion influence these decisions? And, crucially, how do we know? Scholars offer diametrically opposed analyses of this historical case, bearing directly on international relations theories regarding the effects of democracy on war and foreign policy. In this debate and the broader security studies field, scholars increasingly employ published and archival primary sources. Because researchers lack a clear template for descriptive and causal inference with documentary evidence, though, such work is indeterminate and ultimately unpersuasive. How can political scientists approach archives and primary documents more effectively and efficiently? Above all, case studies need stronger research designs and clearer source selection strategies, not just more authoritative documents. A critical review of the sources cited in recent scholarship in the debate leading to the United States' entry into World War II, and a replication analysis of a key portion of the documentary record, underscores this need for improved research design and buttresses eight guidelines for the selection and analysis of textual evidence in case study research.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has invested billions of dollars to prevent illegal drugs, immigration, weapons, and currency from transiting across the U.S.–Mexico border. DHS has not created a sufficient standardized method to measure whether an investment in a security measure is cost-effective when combining assets. To take it one step further, DHS has not created a model that combines cost-effectiveness of a security asset while simultaneously determining how it will contribute to achieving operational control of the border. This study provides an in-depth look into the current risk-based model DHS uses, the administrative and physical infrastructure of U.S.-Mexico border security, and a critical view of DHS’ annual budget. A decision model is presented that will give policymakers a process to choose a combination of border security investments that will achieve operational control of the border while remaining within budgeting constraints. A lot of work needs to be done for DHS to determine the correct security assets to be placed at the U.S.-Mexico Border to maintain operational control and cost-effectiveness. This study does not determine which security assets need to be put into place, but it provides a decision process that will be an asset for policymakers to save federal time and money assigned to border security investments.

This thesis analyzes the impact that reforms in civil-military relations can have on a military's effectiveness. Specifically, why did reforms undermine military effectiveness in Argentina but not in Chile? To answer this question, this thesis looks at both countries since democratization and parses out both the civil-military reforms carried out as well as changes in effectiveness in an attempt to find linkages between the two. To allow for trend analysis, each country is broken into three discrete blocks of time and analyzed across three independent variables-decisions not made, resources, and resource allocation—in an attempt to determine their impact on the dependent variable: military effectiveness. The two case studies show that while resources and resource allocation are important, their relative importance is unclear since they trended together. The impact of decisions that were not made was inconclusive. As both countries focused on gaining civilian control yet ended in very different positions, this thesis demonstrates the need for the United States to pursue unique policies for each country with which it interacts, based on the needs, desires, and capacities that it possesses.

Sri Lanka, particularly since 2008, has become more closely aligned with China in geopolitical affairs, upsetting the balance of its relationship with two other powers in the Indian Ocean: the United States and India. Sri Lanka has become more beholden to China for two main reasons--heavy indebtedness (more than $5 billion) and unfavorable terms and conditions agreed to with China in bilateral agreements while developing key infrastructure facilities in the country. After winning a 30-year-long war against terrorism in 2009, Sri Lanka now must struggle to extricate itself from a debt trap set by China. Against this background, this thesis explores the extent to which the Sri Lankan government can adopt nonalignment as the governing principle of its foreign policy. The thesis presents two possible scenarios: the successful adoption of nonalignment, balancing Sri Lanka's geostrategic interests with major Indian Ocean Region (IOR) power players, and the failure to adopt nonalignment, putting Sri Lanka at risk to China's coercive soft and hard power and compelling Sri Lanka to align more actively with the United States and India. This thesis evaluates historical evidence and recent developments, considers the status quo, and conducts a threefold case study of Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. This thesis shows that nonalignment could promote balance in geopolitics and the international political economy in the 21st century. Finally, this thesis makes two types of recommendations; one specific to Sri Lanka, and the other suggesting a nonalignment model for economically weaker countries to follow when dealing with stronger countries.

The primary question addressed in this thesis is: What changed in Brazil that gave rise to a heightened social and political climate of anticorruption between 2007 and 2017? More specifically, what changes enabled Brazilian judicial empowerment, making it possible to investigate and hold accountable the corrupt among the economic and political elite? This research analyzes governance and democratization theory, and the varied incentives that influence public officials and encourage them to adopt policies to restrict their own corrupt practices. The research identifies a strong link between Brazil's international ambitions and the resultant influence that external forces placed on the nation to enable transformative judicialization with respect to government corruption. These findings have application both in the domestic fight in Brazil against corruption as well as the international effort to promote equity and influence good governance practices abroad.

An introduction to Dr. Christopher Darnton, Associate Professor, NPS Department of National Security Affairs

This document includes Dr. Field's review of Christopher Darnton's Rivalry and Alliance Politics in Cold War Latin America. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014. ISBN: 9781421413617 (paperback, $44.95). It is part of H-Diplo | ISSF, Roundtable, Volume VIII, No. 8 (2016).

Sri Lanka, particularly since 2008, has become more closely aligned with China in geopolitical affairs, upsetting the balance of its relationship with two other powers in the Indian Ocean: the United States and India. Sri Lanka has become more beholden to China for two main reasons--heavy indebtedness (more than $5 billion) and unfavorable terms and conditions agreed to with China in bilateral agreements while developing key infrastructure facilities in the country. After winning a 30-year-long war against terrorism in 2009, Sri Lanka now must struggle to extricate itself from a debt trap set by China. Against this background, this thesis explores the extent to which the Sri Lankan government can adopt nonalignment as the governing principle of its foreign policy. The thesis presents two possible scenarios: the successful adoption of nonalignment, balancing Sri Lanka's geostrategic interests with major Indian Ocean Region (IOR) power players, and the failure to adopt nonalignment, putting Sri Lanka at risk to China's coercive soft and hard power and compelling Sri Lanka to align more actively with the United States and India. This thesis evaluates historical evidence and recent developments, considers the status quo, and conducts a threefold case study of Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. This thesis shows that nonalignment could promote balance in geopolitics and the international political economy in the 21st century. Finally, this thesis makes two types of recommendations; one specific to Sri Lanka, and the other suggesting a nonalignment model for economically weaker countries to follow when dealing with stronger countries., http://archive.org/details/nonalignmenttoba1094556751, Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant Colonel, Sri Lanka Army, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has invested billions of dollars to prevent illegal drugs, immigration, weapons, and currency from transiting across the U.S.–Mexico border. DHS has not created a sufficient standardized method to measure whether an investment in a security measure is cost-effective when combining assets. To take it one step further, DHS has not created a model that combines cost-effectiveness of a security asset while simultaneously determining how it will contribute to achieving operational control of the border. This study provides an in-depth look into the current risk-based model DHS uses, the administrative and physical infrastructure of U.S.-Mexico border security, and a critical view of DHS’ annual budget. A decision model is presented that will give policymakers a process to choose a combination of border security investments that will achieve operational control of the border while remaining within budgeting constraints. A lot of work needs to be done for DHS to determine the correct security assets to be placed at the U.S.-Mexico Border to maintain operational control and cost-effectiveness. This study does not determine which security assets need to be put into place, but it provides a decision process that will be an asset for policymakers to save federal time and money assigned to border security investments., http://archive.org/details/decisionmodelfor1094556150, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

In this paper, I examined U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, primarily during the Cold War. I sought to answer the following questions: (1) What factors influenced the behavior of lower-level U.S. officials stationed in Latin America at the time? and (2) How much policy-affecting agency did these officials have? Using primary source documentation contained in the State Department’s Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) volumes to the maximum extent possible, I examined the following case studies: Guatemala circa 1954, Costa Rica circa 1948, and lastly, present-day Bolivia. In my research and analysis, I shed light on the dynamic that existed between Washington policymakers and lower-level officials stationed in-region, mainly ambassadors. My analysis resulted in the following conclusions: (1) anti-communist Cold War hysteria clouded the judgment of lower-level officials, (2) pressure from Washington elites largely influenced the behavior of these officials, and (3) U.S. officials stationed in-region had relatively little policy-affecting agency. Ultimately, I make a case for a U.S. foreign policy apparatus that empowers lower-level officials stationed in-region. This arrangement will prove most effective in observing, analyzing, and appreciating the nuances present in foreign countries, which would result in a flexible and tailored U.S. foreign policy., http://archive.org/details/affectinguspolic1094558282, Major, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Over the last decade, the U.S. military and homeland security research groups have contemplated the issue of how to counter unmanned drones. Recently, border security agencies responsible for securing the U.S.–Mexico border are having to contend with the emerging threat of Mexico’s drug cartel narcotics-smuggling drones, also known as narco-drones. Narco-drones are an example of cartel innovation for smuggling, among other deviant purposes, that U.S. border security will need a strategy to counter. This study aimed to build on the conceptual framework related to hostile drones in the airspace and specifically to find a strategy that the Department of Homeland Security could pursue to manage the narco-drone problem in the border-zone airspace. The author argues that the Mexican drug cartels adopt innovative drone tactics in response to border security measures or lack thereof, as well as through organizational learning. This thesis concludes that leveraging U.S. military experience, anti-drone doctrine, and detection assets -developed for countering terrorist drones in the war zones of Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan is an effective strategy for countering narco-drones at the U.S.–Mexico border., http://archive.org/details/fiftyfeetbovewal1094558364, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

With the growing discussion on great power competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), few studies offer a quantitative analysis of the growing influence of the PRC across the globe. We hypothesized that the various national levers employed by the PRC would be associated with more favorable foreign policies from Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, though not to the extent that some believe. In order to measure influence, United Nations general assembly votes (specifically votes relating to human rights issues) were utilized to assess the relationship between the voting patterns of LAC countries and the voting patterns of the PRC. Our statistical analysis finds that many factors thought to be consequential have no consistent relationship to China’s geopolitical influence. However, military arms sales were found to be positively related to agreement with China’s UN votes. In contrast, recognition of Taiwan and relative trade balance were found to have negative effects. Taken as whole, the available evidence undercuts the claim that the PRC is making significant strides, or hurting America's standing, in the LAC region., http://archive.org/details/freshperspective1094564055, Major, United States Army, Major, United States Army, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis investigates why U.S. space cooperation efforts with Latin American countries have decreased over the past three decades. This thesis also addresses the following questions: Is the reduced number of U.S.–Latin American space cooperation projects an indication of a loss of U.S. regional influence? Is there an indication of a shift in the partner of choice? If so, what are the factors alienating the U.S. and preventing the establishment of cooperative space efforts, and what can be done about them? This thesis argues that U.S.-Latin American space cooperation has decreased due to the increased availability of providers, the maturing domestic space sectors, and the committed drive toward technological independence. Latin American countries are pursuing space capabilities mainly to support socio-economic development efforts. Their specific resource constraints motivate them to pursue cooperative projects. The increasing availability of providers allows for greater flexibility, and Latin American countries chose engagements that best suit their requirements. Therefore, the smaller number of cooperative U.S.–Latin American space projects is not an indication of a loss of U.S. regional influence but instead of a competitive market with pragmatic consumer base. Thus, the United States is not being alienated but challenged to engage on equitable terms., http://archive.org/details/theuslatinameric1094558368, Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Includes supplementary material, The international cocaine market has transformed the Caribbean Basin into the most violent region in the world. Against the onslaught of drugs and violence, interstate security cooperation and intelligence sharing are increasingly prominent features of state security strategies. The evolution of security cooperation has pushed cocaine flows from the Caribbean to Central America and the Eastern Pacific. Overtime, increasing state capacity and cooperation has shaped cocaine trafficking and cut into the profit margins of cartel organizations. This thesis examines the evolution of maritime countertrafficking networks and argues that increased cooperation in the Insular Caribbean caused narcotraffickers to shift trafficking routes to regions without multilateral security mechanisms. Using naval strengths, interdiction data, and government estimates, this thesis determined that security cooperation shaped current smuggling routes. This thesis concludes that multilateral security arrangements are more effective against transnational criminal networks than unilateral state action. It points to holes in the regional security network and calls for a unified approach to transnational criminal networks. The regional hegemon has an outsized impact on regional security and must take steps to build and maintain multilateral relationships between Mexico and Central America to effectively control smuggling in the Eastern Pacific., http://archive.org/details/caribbeanndeaste1094558287, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.