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51. The underreporting of landmine and explosive remnants of war injuries in Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic and Viet Nam

Author

Jo Durham, Damian G Hoy, and Peter S. Hill

Subjects
Cross-Cultural Comparison, Warfare, Economic growth, media_common.quotation_subject, Poison control, Global Health, Disease cluster, Suicide prevention, Occupational safety and health, Explosive Agents, Blast Injuries, Environmental protection, Political science, Injury prevention, Prevalence, Humans, media_common, Data Collection, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Human factors and ergonomics, Mine action, Democracy, Vietnam, Laos, Population Surveillance, Cambodia, Publication Bias, Perspectives
Abstract

Injuries place an enormous burden on individuals, households, and communities and they exacerbate poverty.1 A substantial but often under-recognized cause of injury in post-conflict environments is the presence of land mines and explosive remnants of war (ERW), such as abandoned ordnance or weapons and cluster munitions, bombs, mortars or other devices that failed to detonate on impact but remain volatile and can explode if touched or moved. This under-recognition, which is partly the result of underestimates, has global implications because it affects to what extent the resources assigned to injury prevention and the rehabilitation of injured people are prioritized. This paper provides detailed case studies of three countries that are heavily contaminated with land mines and ERWs and where mine action pro- grammes – i.e. programmes for humanitarian, non-military purposes – have been in place for a long time: Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) and Viet Nam. The purpose is to illustrate the degree to which injuries caused by land mines and ERW are underreported. The paper highlights how little has been published in the health literature on the subject of land mines and ERW and the failure to include available national data on the injuries caused by these devices in global burden of disease (GBD) estimates. The GBD is a measure that combines the contribution of both mortality and impaired functionality resulting from a range of diseases and injuries to provide a national ranking for comparing disease burdens across countries and, by implication, for assessing the relative importance of a given health problem at the national and global levels. Hence, underreporting is of global relevance. Language: en

Published
2012
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52. Concurrent outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus infections - an unprecedented epidemic wave of mosquito-borne viruses in the Pacific 2012-2014

Author

Alizé Mercier, Yvan Souares, L Guillaumot, Adam Roth, Christelle Lepers, Sala Elbourne Duituturaga, Damian G Hoy, E Benyon, Pacific community (SPC), Institut Pasteur de Nouvelle-Calédonie, and Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP)

Subjects
Epidemiology, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], MESH: Chikungunya Fever, MESH: Dengue, Dengue virus, medicine.disease_cause, MESH: Dengue Virus, MESH: Pacific Islands, Dengue fever, Zika virus, Disease Outbreaks, Dengue, 0302 clinical medicine, Public health surveillance, Aedes, MESH: Animals, Public Health Surveillance, Chikungunya, MESH: Incidence, MESH: Disease Outbreaks, 0303 health sciences, biology, MESH: Public Health Surveillance, Zika Virus Infection, Incidence, MESH: Aedes, 3. Good health, Population Surveillance, Chikungunya virus, 030231 tropical medicine, MESH: Zika Virus, Pacific Islands, MESH: Population Surveillance, 03 medical and health sciences, MESH: Zika Virus Infection, Virology, medicine, Animals, Humans, 030304 developmental biology, MESH: Humans, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Outbreak, MESH: Chikungunya virus, Mosquito-borne viruses, Zika Virus, Dengue Virus, medicine.disease, biology.organism_classification, Chikungunya Fever
Abstract

International audience; Since January 2012, the Pacific Region has experienced 28 new documented outbreaks and circulation of dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus. These mosquito-borne disease epidemics seem to become more frequent and diverse, and it is likely that this is only the early stages of a wave that will continue for several years. Improved surveillance and response measures are needed to mitigate the already heavy burden on island health systems and limit further spread to other parts of the world.

Published
2014
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53. Battling tuberculosis in an island context with a high burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases: epidemiology, progress, and lessons learned in Kiribati, 2000 to 2012

Author

Onofre Edwin A Merilles, Damian G Hoy, Adam Roth, Jeanie McKenzie, Kerri Viney, Teatoa Tira, Bereka Reiher, and Takeieta Kienene

Subjects
Microbiology (medical), Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Tuberculosis, Adolescent, Epidemiology, Population, Context (language use), Hiv testing, Communicable Diseases, Island, lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases, Young Adult, Environmental protection, Risk Factors, Environmental health, Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant, medicine, Prevalence, Humans, lcsh:RC109-216, education, Child, Poverty, Aged, education.field_of_study, business.industry, Incidence (epidemiology), Mortality rate, Incidence, Smoking, Kiribati, Infant, Newborn, Infant, General Medicine, Lessons learned, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Pacific, Infectious Diseases, Treatment Outcome, Child, Preschool, Female, business, Micronesia
Abstract

Summary Objectives To examine the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in Kiribati from 2000 to 2012, document lessons learned, and recommend ways to mitigate the burden of TB in Kiribati. Methods A descriptive study was performed using data on TB case notifications, prevalence, incidence, mortality, and treatment outcomes from global reports and data files. Progress towards meeting the Millennium Development Goal TB target (to reduce TB incidence by 2015) and the Regional Strategy to Stop Tuberculosis in the Western Pacific 2011–2015 targets (to reduce TB prevalence and mortality by half by 2015 relative to the level in 2000) was examined. Results TB case notifications and the estimated incidence and prevalence have increased in Kiribati since 2000. From 2000 to 2012, Kiribati reported a total of 3863 TB notifications; in 2012, the case notification rate was 343/100 000 population. The majority (89%) of TB patients complete treatment and/or are cured, and the estimated TB mortality rate has remained relatively stable at around 16/100 000 population. HIV testing of TB patients has increased over recent years from 8% of notifications tested in 2003 to 43% tested in 2012. Of all 818 tests, only four (0.5%) patients were confirmed HIV-positive. Drug-resistant TB has been detected in a small number of cases. Conclusions TB rates continue to increase in Kiribati and the 2015 goals for TB control are unlikely to be met. This is probably due to the complex mix of risk factors present in Kiribati, including smoking, diabetes, alcohol use, crowded living, and poverty. A comprehensive approach to address these risk factors is needed to mitigate the burden of TB in Kiribati.

Published
2014

54. Burden of disability due to musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders

Author

Lidia Sanchez-Riera, Theo Vos, Lyn March, Marita Cross, Anthony D. Woolf, Fiona M. Blyth, Emma Smith, Rachelle Buchbinder, and Damian G Hoy

Subjects
musculoskeletal diseases, medicine.medical_specialty, Neck pain, business.industry, Osteoarthritis, medicine.disease, Global Health, Low back pain, body regions, Disability Evaluation, Rheumatology, Cost of Illness, Risk Factors, Rheumatoid arthritis, Epidemiology, medicine, Physical therapy, Prevalence, Humans, Disabled Persons, Musculoskeletal Diseases, medicine.symptom, business, Low back
Abstract

This chapter summarises the global and regional prevalence, disability (Years Lived with Disability (YLDs)) and overall burden (Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)) and costs for the common musculoskeletal disorders including low back and neck pain, hip and knee osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, and a remaining combined group of other MSK conditions. The contribution of the role of pain in disability burden is introduced. Trends over time and predictions of increasing MSK disability with demographic changes are addressed and the particular challenges facing the developing world are highlighted.

Published
2014

55. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Soumya Swaminathan, Berrak Bora Basara, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Nadim E. Karam, Jongmin Lee, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Yang Yang, Stein Emil Vollset, Joseph R. Masci, Daniel Dicker, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shiwei Liu, Valentina Arsić Arsenijević, Ting Wu Chuang, Linhong Wang, Xiao Rong Wang, Bryan K. Phillips, Don C. Des Jarlais, Vasco Manuel Pedro Machado, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, David Phillips, Luke Nyakarahuka, Leslie T. Cooper, Sandra Nolte, Charles R. Newton, Christina Papachristou, Stephen G. Waller, Carlos Magis-Rodriguez, D. Allen Roberts, Elisabete Weiderpass, Aliya Naheed, Andre Keren, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, Karen J. Courville, Ted R. Miller, Kinnari S. Murthy, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Tommi Vasankari, Kyle J Foreman, Gabriel Alcalá-Cerra, Yousef Khader, Lorenzo Monasta, Austine Olufemi Adeyemo, Rakhi Dandona, Sanjay Basu, Samir Soneji, Rana J. Asghar, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho, John Q. Wong, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Young-Ho Khang, Dhruv S. Kazi, Tom Achoki, Homie Razavi, Uche S. Uchendu, Ashish Bhalla, Ferrán Catalá-López, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Kaire Innos, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Elena Alvarez, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Qing Lan, Simon I. Hay, Kaushalendra Kumar, Ubai Alsharif, Scott B. Patten, Gelin Xu, Theo Vos, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Raghib Ali, Marcella Montico, Andrea P. Silva, Robert G. Weintraub, Timothy M. Wolock, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Heidi J. Larson, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Saad B. Omer, Scott Weichenthal, D. Alex Quistberg, Justin Beardsley, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Jennifer H MacLachlan, Hsien-Ho Lin, H. Dean Hosgood, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Ryan M Barber, Ibrahim Abubakar, Irma Khonelidze, Ileana B. Heredia Pi, Cyrus Cooper, Hilton Lam, Urbano Fra Paleo, Joshua A. Salomon, Ricky Leung, Farshad Pourmalek, Robert G. Nelson, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Megan Coggeshall, Mazin J. Al Kahbouri, Richard G. Ellenbogen, Hwashin Hyun Shin, Ida Kankindi, Guohong Jiang, Yanping Wang, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Chakib Nejjari, Diego De Leo, Rashmi Gupta, Gene F. Kwan, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Kenji Shibuya, Hassan Amini, Nsanzimana Sabin, Benjamin C Cowie, Karen M. Tabb, Chanda Kulkarni, Jed D. Blore, Amado D Quezada, Norito Kawakami, Walid Ammar, Van C. Lansingh, François Alla, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Yichong Li, Vineet K. Chadha, Jasvinder A. Singh, Agnes Binagwaho, Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman, Denis Nash, Palwasha Anwari, Mohammad T Mashal, Kim Yun Jin, Steven E. Lipshultz, Veena S. Kulkarni, Amitava Banerjee, Naohiro Yonemoto, James D. Wilkinson, Aslam Pervaiz, Emilie Agardh, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Alan D. Lopez, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Abraham D. Flaxman, Boris I. Pavlin, Karen Sliwa, Dima M. Qato, G Anil Kumar, Lynne Gaffikin, K.M. Venkat Narayan, Luca Ronfani, Kazem Rahimi, Vivekanand Jha, Gokalp Kadri Yentur, Wagner Marcenes, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Anwar Rafay, Anand Dayama, Robert Quentin Reilly, Alaa Badawi, Selen Begüm Uzun, James Leigh, Vinay Nangia, Ivy Shiue, J Brown, Nobhojit Roy, Genesis May J. Samonte, Edward J Mills, Soewarta Kosen, Atsushi Goto, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Jose C. Adsuar, Semaw Ferede Abera, Jefferson Traebert, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Andrew H. Kemp, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, André Karch, Edgar P. Simard, Aref A. Bin Abdulhak, Samath D Dharmaratne, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Andre Pascal Kengne, Corine Karema, Harish Chander Gugnani, Reza Assadi, Glen Mola, Paulo A. Lotufo, Christopher J L Murray, Rajeev Gupta, Philimon Gona, Mustafa Z. Younis, Herbert C. Duber, Mitchell T. Wallin, Arjun Lakshmana Balaji, Max Petzold, Francesco Saverio Violante, Monika Sawhney, Kovin Naidoo, Mercedes Colomar, Chuanhua Yu, Mitsuru Mukaigawara, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Jung-Chen Chang, A Artaman, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Dickens Akena, Xiao Nong Zou, Knud Juel, Mohammed I. Albittar, Mohammad Yahya Saeedi, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Graeme J. Hankey, Jerry Puthenpurakal Abraham, Mouhanad Hammami, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Rintaro Mori, Maia Kereselidze, Josep Maria Haro, Emily Dansereau, Michael Brainin, Elizabeth Glaser, Ziad A. Memish, Anders Larsson, Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes, Azmeraw T. Amare, Louisa Degenhardt, Yuichiro Yano, Luke D. Knibbs, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Hilda L Harb, In-Hwan Oh, Katherine B Gibney, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Adansi A. Amankwaa, Nicholas Graetz, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Vincent Nowaseb, David M. Pereira, Alan J Thomson, Miguel Angel Alegretti, Rupak Shivakoti, Adnan M. Durrani, Dipan Bose, Saleem M Rana, Mohammad Taghi Hedayati, Mohsen Naghavi, Vegard Skirbekk, Walter Mendoza, Ali H. Mokdad, Soraya Seedat, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Edson Serván-Mori, Anil Kaul, Foad Abd-Allah, Paul S. F. Yip, Marek Majdan, Peter A. Meaney, Kebede Deribe, Paul N. Jensen, Fabiola Mejía-Rodríguez, Bradford D. Gessner, Ami R. Moore, Marie Ng, Maigeng Zhou, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, John J Huang, Tim Driscoll, Samia Alhabib, Jun Zhu, Michael H. Criqui, Eduardo Bernabé, Lalit Dandona, Miltiadis K. Tsilimbaris, Borja del Pozo-Cruz, Johan Ärnlöv, Luigi Naldi, Tariku Jibat Beyene, Rasmus Havmoeller, Bongani M. Mayosi, Konrad Pesudovs, Richard A. White, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Orish Ebere Orisakwe, Graça Maria Ferreira De Lima, Yang Liu, Haidong Wang, Yongmei Li, Bryan L. Sykes, Ronny Westerman, Vinod K. Paul, Angel J Paternina Caicedo, Abigail C. McKay, Eric L. Ding, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Uur Dilmen, Stephen S Lim, Andrew Vallely, Alireza Esteghamati, Seok Jun Yoon, John Hornberger, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Yong Zhao, Thomas D. Fleming, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Damian G Hoy, Hebe N. Gouda, Mall Leinsalu, Elizabeth Johnson, Wilkister N. Moturi, Bach Xuan Tran, Donald H. Silberberg, Yingfeng Zheng, Lydia S. Atkins, Hans W. Hoek, Muluken Dessalegn, David C. Schwebel, Christopher C. Mapoma, Jost B. Jonas, Tolesa Bekele, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi, Bulat Idrisov, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Thomas N. Williams, Jeffrey A. Towbin, Caterina Guinovart, Jeyaraj D Pandian, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Taavi Lai, Haidong Kan, Tasara T. Mazorodze, Murugesan Raju, Randah R. Hamadeh, Neil Pearce, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, John Nelson Opio, Deena Alasfoor, Peter J. Hotez, Jonas Minet Kinge, Peter J. Allen, Eric Y. Tenkorang, Sudan Prasad Neupane, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Katrina F Ortblad, Arsène Kouablan Adou, Farshad Farzadfar, Sergey Soshnikov, Neeraj Bhala, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Kyle R. Heuton, Michelle L. Bell, Yohannes Kinfu, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Belinda K Lloyd, R. Kumar, Jan Hendrik Richardus, Benjamin O. Anderson, Cell biology, Epidemiology, Public Health, Erasmus MC other, Pathology, Cardiothoracic Surgery, Murray, Christopher J.L, Ortblad, Katrina F., Guinovart, Caterina, Lim, Stephen S., Wolock, Timothy M., Roberts, D. Allen, Dansereau, Emily A., Graetz, Nichola, Barber, Ryan M., Brown, Jonathan C., Wang, Haidong, Duber, Herbert C., Naghavi, Mohsen, Dicker, Daniel, Dandona, Lalit, Salomon, Joshua A., Heuton, Kyle R., Foreman, Kyle, Phillips, David E., Fleming, Thomas D., Flaxman, Abraham D., Phillips, Bryan K., Johnson, Elizabeth K., Coggeshall, Megan S., Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Jerry P., Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J., Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me, Achoki, Tom, Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C., Agardh, Emilie Elisabet, Akena, Dicken, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J., Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I., Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel, Alegretti, Miguel Angel, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francoi, Allen, Peter J., Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A., Amare, Azmeraw T., Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O., Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arsic Arsenijevic, Valentina S., Artaman, Ali, Asghar, Rana J., Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S., Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L., Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku Jibat, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Bin Abdulhak, Aref, Binagwaho, Agne, Blore, Jed D., Bora Basara, Berrak, Bose, Dipan, Brainin, Michael, Breitborde, Nichola, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chadha, Vineet K., Chang, Jung-Chen, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Colomar, Mercede, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyru, Courville, Karen J., Cowie, Benjamin C., Criqui, Michael H., Dandona, Rakhi, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Deribe, Kebede, Des Jarlais, Don C., Dessalegn, Muluken, Dharmaratne, Samath D., Dilmen, Uur, Ding, Eric L., Driscoll, Tim R., Durrani, Adnan M., Ellenbogen, Richard G., Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Esteghamati, Alireza, Faraon, Emerito Jose A., Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., Paleo, Urbano Fra., Gaffikin, Lynne, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Gessner, Bradford D., Gibney, Katherine B., Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Glaser, Elizabeth L., Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N., Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Rahul, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J., Harb, Hilda L., Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmu, Hay, Simon I., Hedayati, Mohammad T., Heredia Pi, Ileana B., Hoek, Hans W., Hornberger, John C., Hosgood, H. Dean, Hotez, Peter J., Hoy, Damian G., Huang, John J., Iburg, Kim M., Idrisov, Bulat T., Innos, Kaire, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N., Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B., Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Kankindi, Ida, Karam, Nadim E., Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazi, Dhruv S., Kemp, Andrew H., Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khan, Ejaz Ahmed, Khang, Young-Ho, Khonelidze, Irma, Kinfu, Yohanne, Kinge, Jonas M., Knibbs, Luke, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, S., Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kulkarni, Veena S., Kulkarni, Chanda, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B., Kumar, G. Anil, Kwan, Gene F., Lai, Taavi, Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C., Larson, Heidi J., Larsson, Ander, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, Jame, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Ricky, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira, Lin, Hsien-Ho, Lipshultz, Steven E., Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K., Lotufo, Paulo A., Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro, Maclachlan, Jennifer H., Magis-Rodriguez, Carlo, Majdan, Marek, Mapoma, Christopher Chabila, Marcenes, Wagner, Marzan, Melvin Barriento, Masci, Joseph R., Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J., Mayosi, Bongani M., Mazorodze, Tasara T., Mckay, Abigail Cecilia, Meaney, Peter A., Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R., Mills, Edward J., Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H., Mola, Glen Liddell, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R., Mori, Rintaro, Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Murthy, Kinnari S., Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S., Naldi, Luigi, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K.M. Venkat, Nash, Deni, Nejjari, Chakib, Nelson, Robert G., Neupane, Sudan Prasad, Newton, Charles R., Ng, Marie, Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F., Nowaseb, Vincent, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Olusanya, Bolajoko O., Omer, Saad B., Opio, John Nelson, Orisakwe, Orish Ebere, Pandian, Jeyaraj D., Papachristou, Christina, Paternina Caicedo, Angel J., Patten, Scott B., Paul, Vinod K., Pavlin, Boris Igor, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M., Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qato, Dima, Quezada, Amado D., Quistberg, D. Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M., Razavi, Homie, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Ronfani, Luca, Roy, Nobhojit, Sabin, Nsanzimana, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Samonte, Genesis May J., Sawhney, Monika, Schneider, Ione J.C., Schwebel, David C., Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Servan-Mori, Edson E., Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shiue, Ivy, Shivakoti, Rupak, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silberberg, Donald H., Silva, Andrea P., Simard, Edgar P., Singh, Jasvinder A., Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soneji, Samir, Soshnikov, Sergey S., Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantino, Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L., Tabb, Karen M., Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J., Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L., Towbin, Jeffrey A., Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X., Tsala Dimbuene, Zacharie, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadi, Uchendu, Uche S., Ukwaja, Kingsley N., Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vallely, Andrew J., Vasankari, Tommi J., Venketasubramanian, N., Violante, Francesco S., Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wallin, Mitchell T., Wang, Linhong, Wang, Xiao Rong, Wang, Yanping, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Westerman, Ronny, White, Richard A., Wilkinson, James D., Williams, Thomas Neil, Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wong, John Q., Xu, Gelin, Yang, Yang C., Yano, Yuichiro, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Zou, Xiao Nong, Lopez, Alan D., and Vos, Theo

Subjects
Gerontology, SEVERE FEBRILE ILLNESS, Male, verbal autopsy, Nutrition and Disease, Cost effectiveness, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, HIV Infections, active antiretroviral therapy, Global Health, COST-EFFECTIVENESS, 0302 clinical medicine, Voeding en Ziekte, Global health, HIV Infection, 030212 general & internal medicine, 0303 health sciences, ACTIVE ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY, Incidence (epidemiology), Medicine (all), Incidence, General Medicine, Millennium Development Goals, 3. Good health, middle-income countries, projection package, World Health, VERBAL AUTOPSY, Female, Human, Tuberculosis, Tuberculosi, PROJECTION PACKAGE, prospective cohort, Epidemic, millennium development goals, 03 medical and health sciences, Age Distribution, Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, medicine, Organizational Objective, Humans, Organizational Objectives, FEMALE SEX WORKERS, Mortality, Sex Distribution, Epidemics, cost-effectiveness, female sex workers, 030304 developmental biology, VLAG, business.industry, plasmodium-falciparum malaria, PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM MALARIA, medicine.disease, Verbal autopsy, Malaria, PROSPECTIVE COHORT, severe febrile illness, business, Demography
Abstract

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2014
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56. Preparedness for Threat of Chikungunya in the Pacific

Author

Boris I. Pavlin, Yvan Souares, Keith T. Rickart, Paul F. Horwood, Laurent Guillaumot, Berry Ropa, Adam Roth, Damian G Hoy, Pascal Frison, and Thane Hancock

Subjects
Risk, PPHSN, mosquitos, Microbiology (medical), medicine.medical_specialty, chikungunya, Epidemiology, CHIKV, vector-borne infections, lcsh:Medicine, Pacific Islands, medicine.disease_cause, lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases, Disease Outbreaks, Papua New Guinea, Aedes aegypti, Federated States of Micronesia, New Caledonia, Public health surveillance, Indian Ocean Islands, Environmental protection, Health care, Animals, Humans, Medicine, lcsh:RC109-216, viruses, Chikungunya, Yap State, Socioeconomics, Indian Ocean, outbreak, business.industry, Public health, lcsh:R, Pacific Public Health Surveillance Network, virus diseases, Outbreak, Online Report, Aedes albopictus, Case management, preparedness, Pacific, Indian ocean, Infectious Diseases, Preparedness, Chikungunya Fever, business, Chikungunya virus
Abstract

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) caused significant outbreaks of illness during 2005–2007 in the Indian Ocean region. Chikungunya outbreaks have also occurred in the Pacific region, including in Papua New Guinea in 2012; New Caledonia in April 2013; and Yap State, Federated States of Micronesia, in August 2013. CHIKV is a threat in the Pacific, and the risk for further spread is high, given several similarities between the Pacific and Indian Ocean chikungunya outbreaks. Island health care systems have difficulties coping with high caseloads, which highlights the need for early multidisciplinary preparedness. The Pacific Public Health Surveillance Network has developed several strategies focusing on surveillance, case management, vector control, laboratory confirmation, and communication. The management of this CHIKV threat will likely have broad implications for global public health.

Published
2014
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57. Findings and Implications of the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study for the Pacific Islands

Author

Yvan Souares, Adam Roth, Alan D. Lopez, Kerri Viney, and Damian G Hoy

Subjects
Adult, Burden of disease, Gerontology, Adolescent, Global Health, Pacific Islands, Severity of Illness Index, Young Adult, Life Expectancy, Cost of Illness, Risk Factors, Environmental health, Cost of illness, Global health, Humans, Medicine, Disabled Persons, Special Topic, Child, Aged, Health Services Needs and Demand, Data collection, business.industry, Health Policy, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Middle Aged, Quality-adjusted life year, Chronic disease, Population Surveillance, Chronic Disease, Life expectancy, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Health information, business
Abstract

The Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study is the largest study of its kind. It provides a large volume of information about the global burden of disease and associated risk factors. It estimates that lower respiratory infections, diabetes, diarrhea, and tuberculosis cause the greatest burden in the Pacific, and noncommunicable diseases caused a substantially greater burden in 2010 compared with 1990. Although the Pacific is considered to be a region rich in data, very little of these data has been analyzed, synthesized, and made publically available. Consequently, burden estimates for the Pacific are derived from models built with very limited data, and it is difficult to know how accurate they are. Health information in the Pacific needs strengthening, particularly in relation to data collection, analysis, use, and sharing. This will improve the reliability and comparability of burden of disease estimates.

Published
2014
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58. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Karen Sliwa, Xiaofeng Liang, Vivekanand Jha, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Rakhi Dandona, Gonghuan Yang, Xuan Che, Soewarta Kosen, Sergei Petrovich Ermakov, Ted R. Miller, Samath D Dharmaratne, Philimon Gona, Sergey Soshnikov, Atsushi Goto, Costas A. Christophi, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Elena Alvarez, Yanping Wang, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Giancarlo Logroscino, Massimo Cirillo, Knud Juel, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Stefan Ma, Samaya Ismayilova, Karen Fern Greenwell, Michelle L. Bell, Saad B. Omer, Ademola Lukman Adelekan, Joshua A. Salomon, Dhruv S. Kazi, Jed D. Blore, Walid Ammar, Carly E Levitz, Kovin Naidoo, Solveig A. Cunningham, Stephen G. Waller, Anand Dayama, James D. Wilkinson, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Meghan D. Mooney, Mall Leinsalu, Jonathan R. Carapetis, Paul S. F. Yip, Anders Larsson, Abbas Ali Mahdi, Hideaki Toyoshima, Guohong Jiang, Xia Wan, Chuanhua Yu, Soufiane Boufous, Ivy Shiue, Bulat Idrisov, Qing Lan, Chelsea A. Liddell, Austin E Schumacher, Valeria Caso, Nigel Bruce, Paulo A. Lotufo, Ibrahim Abubakar, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Luke Nyakarahuka, Edward J Mills, Iuri da Costa Leite, Semaw Ferede Abera, Ana C. Garcia, Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Matthew M Coates, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Bradford D. Gessner, Kebede Deribe, Tommi Vasankari, Logan Sandar, Kenji Shibuya, Karen M. Tabb, Troy Jacobs, Christopher J L Murray, Chakib Nejjari, Katherine T. Lofgren, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Haidong Wang, Joanna Moschandreas, Raimundas Lunevicius, Nataliya Foigt, Rashmi Gupta, Ziad A. Memish, Victoria Pillay-van Wyk, Randah R. Hamadeh, Azmeraw T. Amare, Lalit Dandona, Uchechukwu K.A. Sampson, Monika Sawhney, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Farhad Islami, Palwasha Anwari, Mustafa Z. Younis, Amitava Banerjee, Ruben Castro, David O. Carpenter, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Taavi Lai, Yousef Khader, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Atte Meretoja, Zanfina Ademi, Ivo Rakovac, Yang Yang, Hilda L Harb, Daniel Pope, Jun She, Yichong Li, Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman, Adrian Davis, Stein Emil Vollset, Andre Pascal Kengne, Henry Apfel, Mark J. Nieuwenhuijsen, John J. McGrath, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Jonas Minet Kinge, Elisabete Weiderpass, Rajiv Chowdhury, Damian G Hoy, Jürgen C Schmidt, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Harish Chander Gugnani, Hywel C Williams, Karen Edmond, Peter J. Allen, Marina Shakh-Nazarova, Tom Achoki, Edmond K. Kabagambe, Naohiro Yonemoto, Jun Zhu, Simon I. Hay, Karen J. Courville, Ketevan Goginashvili, Theo Vos, Kim Yun Jin, Kawkab Shishani, Lorenzo Monasta, H. Dean Hosgood, Uʇur Dilmen, Marcella Montico, Shankuan Zhu, Ami R. Moore, Marie Ng, Maigeng Zhou, Hebe N. Gouda, Linh N Bui, Sanjay Basu, Mouhanad Hammami, Mohammad T Mashal, Bryan K. Phillips, Marissa Iannarone, Ronan A Lyons, Young-Ho Khang, Robert G. Weintraub, Luca Ronfani, Daniel Kim, Alanur Çavlin, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ronny Westerman, Maia Kereselidze, Itamar S. Santos, Reza Assadi, Hwashin Hyun Shin, Carolina Maria Teixeira, Berrak Bora Basara, David Rojas-Rueda, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Adansi A. Amankwaa, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Gokalp Kadri Yentur, Kaushalendra Kumar, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Neeraj Bedi, Robert Quentin Reilly, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Scott Weichenthal, Mark A. Green, Selen Begüm Uzun, Mukesh Dherani, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Majed Asad, Jasvinder A. Singh, Angel J Paternina Caicedo, Eric L. Ding, Jost B. Jonas, Tolesa Bekele, Alan J Thomson, Steven E. Lipshultz, Rosario Cárdenas, Sajjad Ur Rahman, George A. Mensah, Jongmin Lee, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Mohammad Yahya Saeedi, Magdalena M. Muszyńska, Ulrich O Mueller, Stephen S Lim, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Alan D. Lopez, Luciano A. Sposato, G Anil Kumar, Farshad Pourmalek, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shiwei Liu, K.M. Venkat Narayan, William Msemburi, Ting Wu Chuang, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Saleem M Rana, Mohammad Taghi Hedayati, Mohsen Naghavi, Vegard Skirbekk, Walter Mendoza, Ali H. Mokdad, Yohannes Kinfu, Jean de Dieu Ngirabega, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Parfait Uwaliraye, Tasara T. Mazorodze, Farshad Farzadfar, Rob E. Dorrington, Mohammad A. AlMazroa, R. Kumar, Lesley Rushton, Wang, H, Liddell, Ca, Coates, Mm, Mooney, Md, Levitz, Ce, Schumacher, Ae, Apfel, H, Iannarone, M, Phillips, B, Lofgren, Kt, Sandar, L, Dorrington, Re, Rakovac, I, Jacobs, Ta, Liang, X, Zhou, M, Zhu, J, Yang, G, Wang, Y, Liu, S, Li, Y, Ozgoren, Aa, Abera, Sf, Abubakar, I, Achoki, T, Adelekan, A, Ademi, Z, Alemu, Za, Allen, Pj, Almazroa, Ma, Alvarez, E, Amankwaa, Aa, Amare, At, Ammar, W, Anwari, P, Cunningham, Sa, Asad, Mm, Assadi, R, Banerjee, A, Basu, S, Bedi, N, Bekele, T, Bell, Ml, Bhutta, Z, Blore, J, Basara, Bb, Boufous, S, Breitborde, N, Bruce, Ng, Bui, Ln, Carapetis, Jr, Cárdenas, R, Carpenter, Do, Caso, V, Castro, Re, Catalá Lopéz, F, Cavlin, A, Che, X, Chiang, Pp, Chowdhury, R, Christophi, Ca, Chuang, Tw, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, I, Courville, Kj, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Davis, A, Dayama, A, Deribe, K, Dharmaratne, Sd, Dherani, Mk, Dilmen, U, Ding, El, Edmond, Km, Ermakov, Sp, Farzadfar, F, Fereshtehnejad, Sm, Fijabi, Do, Foigt, N, Forouzanfar, Mh, Garcia, Ac, Geleijnse, Jm, Gessner, Bd, Goginashvili, K, Gona, P, Goto, A, Gouda, Hn, Green, Ma, Greenwell, Kf, Gugnani, Hc, Gupta, R, Hamadeh, Rr, Hammami, M, Harb, Hl, Hay, S, Hedayati, Mt, Hosgood, Hd, Hoy, Dg, Idrisov, Bt, Islami, F, Ismayilova, S, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Jonas, Jb, Juel, K, Kabagambe, Ek, Kazi, D, Kengne, Ap, Kereselidze, M, Khader, Y, Khalifa, Se, Khang, Yh, Kim, D, Kinfu, Y, Kinge, Jm, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Defo, Bk, Kumar, Ga, Kumar, K, Kumar, Rb, Lai, T, Lan, Q, Larsson, A, Lee, Jt, Leinsalu, M, Lim, S, Lipshultz, Se, Logroscino, G, Lotufo, Pa, Lunevicius, R, Lyons, Ra, Ma, S, Mahdi, Aa, Marzan, Mb, Mashal, Mt, Mazorodze, Tt, Mcgrath, Jj, Memish, Za, Mendoza, W, Mensah, Ga, Meretoja, A, Miller, Tr, Mills, Ej, Mohammad, Ka, Mokdad, Ah, Monasta, L, Montico, M, Moore, Ar, Moschandreas, J, Msemburi, Wt, Mueller, Uo, Muszynska, Mm, Naghavi, M, Naidoo, K, Narayan, Kv, Nejjari, C, Ng, M, de Dieu Ngirabega, J, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mj, Nyakarahuka, L, Ohkubo, T, Omer, Sb, Caicedo, Aj, Wyk, Vp, Pope, D, Prabhakaran, D, Rahman, Su, Rana, Sm, Reilly, Rq, Rojas Rueda, D, Ronfani, L, Rushton, L, Saeedi, My, Salomon, J, Sampson, U, Santos, I, Sawhney, M, Schmidt, Jc, Shakh Nazarova, M, She, J, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shibuya, K, Shin, Hh, Shishani, K, Shiue, I, Sigfusdottir, Id, Singh, Ja, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soshnikov, S, Sposato, La, Stathopoulou, Vk, Stroumpoulis, K, Tabb, Km, Talongwa, Rt, Teixeira, Cm, Terkawi, A, Thomson, Aj, Thorne Lyman, Al, Toyoshima, H, Dimbuene, Zt, Uwaliraye, P, Uzun, Sb, Vasankari, Tj, Vasconcelos, Am, Vlassov, Vv, Vollset, Se, Vos, T, Waller, S, Wan, X, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, Rg, Westerman, R, Wilkinson, Jd, Williams, Hc, Yang, Yc, Yentur, Gk, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Younis, M, Yu, C, Jin, Ky, El Sayed Zaki, M, Zhu, S, Lopez, Ad, and Murray, C. J.

Subjects
trends, Pediatrics, medicine.medical_specialty, Nutrition and Disease, democracy, Developing country, coverage, VDP::Medisinske fag: 700::Helsefag: 800::Epidemiologi medisinsk og odontologisk statistikk: 803, millennium development goals, Global Health, survival, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, 030225 pediatrics, Voeding en Ziekte, Infant Mortality, Global health, Humans, Organizational Objectives, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, 10. No inequality, VLAG, business.industry, Mortality rate, Infant, Newborn, 1. No poverty, Infant, health, General Medicine, Millennium Development Goals, Infant mortality, maternal education, 3. Good health, Secular variation, Child mortality, Socioeconomic Factors, income countries, Child, Preschool, Child Mortality, developing-countries, VDP::Midical sciences: 700::Health sciences: 800::Epidemiology, medical and dental statistics: 803, International development, business, Demography, child-mortality
Abstract

Summary Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from −6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only −1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Published
2014
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59. The global burden of rheumatoid arthritis: estimates from the global burden of disease 2010 study

Author

Sherine E. Gabriel, Benjamin B Williams, Theo Vos, Emma Smith, Rachelle Buchbinder, Anthony D. Woolf, Loreto Carmona, Damian G Hoy, Frederick Wolfe, Nicole E. Johns, Lyn March, Marita Cross, and Marissa Lassere

Subjects
Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Adolescent, Immunology, Population, Global Health, Severity of Illness Index, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Arthritis, Rheumatoid, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Rheumatology, Cost of Illness, Severity of illness, Epidemiology, Global health, Prevalence, Immunology and Allergy, Medicine, Humans, Sex Distribution, education, Child, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, business.industry, Incidence (epidemiology), Incidence, Middle Aged, Quality-adjusted life year, Years of potential life lost, Meta-analysis, Child, Preschool, Physical therapy, Regression Analysis, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, business, Demography
Abstract

Objectives To estimate the global burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as part of the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study of 291 conditions and how the burden of RA compares with other conditions. Methods The optimum case definition of RA for the study was the American College of Rheumatology 1987 criteria. A series of systematic reviews were conducted to gather age-sex-specific epidemiological data for RA prevalence, incidence and mortality. Cause-specific mortality data were also included. Data were entered into DisMod-MR, a tool to pool available data, making use of study-level covariates to adjust for country, region and super-region random effects to estimate prevalence for every country and over time. The epidemiological data, in addition to disability weights, were used to calculate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). YLDs were added to the years of life lost due to premature mortality to estimate the overall burden (disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)) for RA for the years 1990, 2005 and 2010. Results The global prevalence of RA was 0.24% (95% CI 0.23% to 0.25%), with no discernible change from 1990 to 2010. DALYs increased from 3.3 million (M) (95% CI 2.6 M to 4.1 M) in 1990 to 4.8 M (95% CI 3.7 M to 6.1 M) in 2010. This increase was due to a growth in population and increase in aging. Globally, of the 291 conditions studied, RA was ranked as the 42nd highest contributor to global disability, just below malaria and just above iodine deficiency (measured in YLDs). Conclusions RA continues to cause modest global disability, with severe consequences in the individuals affected.

Published
2014

60. The global burden attributable to low bone mineral density

Author

Lennert J. Veerman, Y. Li, Nathan J. Wilson, N. Kamalaraj, Emma Smith, Joan M Nolla, Emily Carnahan, Cindy Kok, Rosana E. Norman, M. Macara, Damian G Hoy, Lidia Sanchez-Riera, Theo Vos, Stephen S Lim, Lyn March, Jian Sheng Chen, C. Santos-Hernańdez, and Universitat de Barcelona

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, Bone density, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, Immunology, Osteoporosis, Population, Poison control, Global Health, Ressenyes sistemàtiques (Investigació mèdica), Risk Assessment, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Bone densitometry, Rheumatology, Bone Density, Risk Factors, Systematic reviews (Medical research), Environmental health, Densitometria òssia, medicine, Humans, Immunology and Allergy, Risk factor, education, education.field_of_study, Public health, Femur Neck, business.industry, Osteoporosi, medicine.disease, Salut pública, Quality-adjusted life year, Malalties dels ossos, Attributable risk, Physical therapy, Accidental Falls, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, business, Fractures, Bone diseases, Osteoporotic Fractures
Abstract

Introduction: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 estimated the worldwide health burden of 291 diseases and injuries and 67 risk factors by calculating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Osteoporosis was not considered as a disease, and bone mineral density (BMD) was analysed as a risk factor for fractures, which formed part of the health burden due to falls. Objectives: To calculate (1) the global distribution of BMD, (2) its population attributable fraction (PAF) for fractures and subsequently for falls, and (3) the number of DALYs due to BMD. Methods: A systematic review was performed seeking population-based studies in which BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the femoral neck in people aged 50 years and over. Age- and sex-specific mean ± SD BMD values (g/cm2) were extracted from eligible studies. Comparative risk assessment methodology was used to calculate PAFs of BMD for fractures. The theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution was estimated as the age- and sex-specific 90th centile from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Relative risks of fractures were obtained from a previous meta-analysis. Hospital data were used to calculate the fraction of the health burden of falls that was due to fractures. Results: Global deaths and DALYs attributable to low BMD increased from 103 000 and 3 125 000 in 1990 to 188 000 and 5 216 000 in 2010, respectively. The percentage of low BMD in the total global burden almost doubled from 1990 (0.12%) to 2010 (0.21%). Around one-third of falls-related deaths were attributable to low BMD. Conclusions: Low BMD is responsible for a growing global health burden, only partially representative of the real burden of osteoporosis.

Published
2014

61. Risk Factors for Chronic Disease in Viet Nam: A Review of the Literature

Author

Chalapati Rao, Nguyen Thi Trang Nhung, Geoffrey C. Marks, Nguyen Phuong Hoa, and Damian G Hoy

Subjects
Adult, Male, Alcohol Drinking, MEDLINE, Reviews, Age Distribution, Risk Factors, Environmental health, Prevalence, Humans, Medicine, Sex Distribution, Risk factor, Life Style, Disease burden, Life style, business.industry, Health Policy, Viet nam, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Tobacco Products, Middle Aged, Chronic disease, Vietnam, Population Surveillance, Chronic Disease, Female, Age distribution, business
Abstract

Introduction Chronic diseases account for most of the disease burden in low- and middle-income countries, particularly those in Asia. We reviewed literature on chronic disease risk factors in Viet Nam to identify patterns and data gaps. Methods All population-based studies published from 2000 to 2012 that reported chronic disease risk factors were considered. We used standard chronic disease terminology to search PubMed and assessed titles, abstracts, and articles for eligibility for inclusion. We summarized relevant study information in tables listing available studies, risk factors measured, and the prevalence of these risk factors. Results We identified 23 studies conducted before 2010. The most common age range studied was 25 to 64 years. Sample sizes varied, and sample frames were national in 5 studies. A combination of behavioral, physical, and biological risk factors was studied. Being overweight or obese was the most common risk factor studied (n = 14), followed by high blood pressure (n = 11) and tobacco use (n = 10). Tobacco and alcohol use were high among men, and tobacco use may be increasing among Vietnamese women. High blood pressure is common; however, people’s knowledge that they have high blood pressure may be low. A high proportion of diets do not meet international criteria for fruit and vegetable consumption. Prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing. None of the studies evaluated measured dietary patterns or total caloric intake, and only 1 study measured dietary salt intake. Conclusion Risk factors for chronic diseases are common in Viet Nam; however, more recent and context-specific information is required for planning and monitoring interventions to reduce risk factors and chronic disease in this country.

Published
2013
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62. Correction to Lancet HIV 2016; 3: e361–87

Author

Kerrie E. Doyle, Olalekan A. Uthman, Laxmikant Chavan, Azmeraw T. Amare, Rasmus Havmoeller, Maryam S. Farvid, Louisa Degenhardt, Mohamed Hsairi, Kimani M Harun, Zoubida Zaidi, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Masako Horino, Rajesh Sagar, Bradford D. Gessner, Bongani M. Mayosi, Konrad Pesudovs, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi, Hye Youn Park, Alexandria Brown, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Bach Xuan Tran, Haidong Kan, Ajit Kumar Yadav, Arsène Kouablan Adou, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, In-Hwan Oh, Juan Jesus Carrero, Pratik Pinal Doshi, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Teshome Gebre, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Hsing-Yi Chang, Bulat Idrisov, Azeem Majeed, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Zahid A Butt, Yuichiro Yano, Nataliya Foigt, Naris Silpakit, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Rajaa Mohammad, Alireza Esteghamati, Seok Jun Yoon, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Sibhatu Biadgilign, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Balem Demtsu Betsu, Haidong Wang, Samir Soneji, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Boris Bikbov, John Q. Wong, Yun Jin Kim, Giancarlo Logroscino, Raimundas Lunevicius, Eesh Bhatia, Kazem Rahimi, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Henock Yebyo, Mehdi Yaseri, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Yong Zhao, Joseph Friedman, André Faro, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Yongmei Li, Bemnet Amare Tedla, Wanqing Chen, Shafiu Mohammed, Vivekanand Jha, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Guoqing Hu, Yousef Khader, Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho, Girma Temam Shifa, Suzanne Polinder, Bryan L. Sykes, Kaja Abbas, Nadia Akseer, Rakhi Dandona, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Scott B. Patten, Jiabin Shen, Donal Bisanzio, Hilda L Harb, Gizachew Assefa Tessema, Wagner Marcenes, Chabila C Mapoma, Miia Kivipelto, Hsiang Huang, Jung-Chen Chang, P. V. Rao, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Hilton Lam, Amare Deribew, Saleem M Rana, Mohammad Taghi Hedayati, Khurshid Alam, Reza Malekzadeh, Mohamed Magdy Abd El Razek, Mojde Mirarefin, Juan Sanabria, Umar Bacha, Rashmi Gupta, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Felix Masiye, Maurice Giroud, Palwasha Anwari, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Rosario Cárdenas, John J Huang, Alaa Badawi, Edward J Mills, Guohong Jiang, Matthew M Coates, Martin McKee, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Norito Kawakami, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Pieter de Jager, Hajo Zeeb, Tim Driscoll, James Leigh, Mohammad Yahya Saeedi, Gelin Xu, Rana J. Asghar, Koranteng Adofo, Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Jeanne Françoise Kayibanda, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Alemseged Aregay Gebru, Yuantao Hao, Bereket Yakob, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Jose Martinez-Raga, Rosana E. Norman, Gebre Yitayih Abyu, Anders Larsson, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Sasa Rajsic, Elena Alvarez, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Kenji Shibuya, Alexandra Brazinova, Nader Jahanmehr, Solomon Abreha Damtew, Ambuj Roy, Elisabete Weiderpass, Derrick A Bennett, Holly Hagan, Julio Cesar Campuzano, Shifalika Goenka, Gudlavalleti V S Murthy, Mirriam Chibalabala, Mostafa Qorbani, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Stein Emil Vollset, Andrea Werdecker, Sanjay Zodpey, Alemayehu B. Mekonnen, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Stephen M. Amrock, Soewarta Kosen, Haseeb Nawaz, Tukur Dahiru, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Atsushi Goto, Abdur Rahman Khan, Vipin Gupta, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Parvaiz A Koul, John Nelson Opio, Jun She, Michael Brainin, Luke Nyakarahuka, Edson Serván-Mori, Dimitris Karletsos, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Van C. Lansingh, Ala'a Alkerwi, Elizabeth Glaser, Ziad A. Memish, Sinead Langan, Usha Ram, Alicia Aleman, Brighton Murimira, Jae-Hyun Park, Foluke Adetola Ojelabi, Anil Kaul, Foad Abd-Allah, Aman Yesuf Endries, Erika Ota, Mark Drew Crosland Guimarães, Rajesh Sharma, Mahdi Mahdavi, Andre Pascal Kengne, Joan B. Soriano, Soumya Swaminathan, Ritul Kamal, Quyen Nguyen, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Alan J Thomson, Don C. Des Jarlais, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Al Artaman, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Tsegaye Tewelde Ghiwot, Maya S Fraser, Veena S. Kulkarni, Corine Karema, Samer Hamidi, Randah R. Hamadeh, Marek Majdan, Sait Mentes Birlik, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Jeffrey A. Towbin, Tariku Jibat, Julian David Pillay, Suleman Atique, Raghib Ali, Shicheng Yu, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Nobuyuki Horita, Graeme J. Hankey, Prashant Singh, Mouhanad Hammami, Nicholas Steel, Yohannes Kinfu, Hao Zhang, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, François Alla, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Nancy Fullman, Rintaro Mori, Ying Jiang, Semaw Ferede Abera, Atte Meretoja, Katherine Pearson, Robert G. Weintraub, Zubair Kabir, Juanita A. Haagsma, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Benn Sartorius, Lalit Dandona, Amir Kasaeian, Andrew H. Kemp, Melkamu Dedefo Gishu, Ferrán Catalá-López, Deena Alasfoor, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Hwashin Hyun Shin, Peter Memiah, Muhammad Muhammad Saleh, Mahfuzar Rahman, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Alan D. Lopez, Meghan D. Mooney, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Walid Ammar, Vegard Skirbekk, David M. Prokop, Edgar P. Simard, Jagdish Khubchandani, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Arindam Basu, Roman Topor-Madry, Walter Mendoza, Amador Goodridge, G Anil Kumar, Jean de Dieu Ngirabega, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, João C. Fernandes, Michael Burch, Gholamreza Roshandel, Leo Zoeckler, Ai Koyanagi, Emmanuel Peprah, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shiwei Liu, Shireen Sindi, Adam Trickey, Ali H. Mokdad, William Msemburi, James D. Wilkinson, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Sungho Won, Abdishakur M. Abdulle, Ted R. Miller, Oluremi N Ajala, Karen Sliwa, Linhong Wang, Awoke Misganaw Temesgen, Jasvinder A. Singh, Kaire Innos, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Steven E. Lipshultz, Belinda Lloyd, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Abera Kenay Tura, Adeladza Kofi Amegah, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Charles D.A. Wolfe, Ulrich O Mueller, Francis Apolinary Mhimbira, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Monika Sawhney, Eyal Oren, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Tomi Akinyemiju, Tissa Wijeratne, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Alemayehu Amberbir, Itamar S. Santos, Ibrahim A Khalil, Aliya Naheed, Anwar Rafay, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Saleh F. Aldhahri, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, André Karch, Harish Chander Gugnani, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Ronny Westerman, Vinod K. Paul, Dietrich Plass, David Rojas-Rueda, Reza Assadi, Tigist Assefa Bayou, Vinay Nangia, Ayalnesh Zemene Yalew, Eric L. Ding, Justin Beardsley, Veena R. Iyer, Stephen S Lim, Bineyam Taye, Till Bärnighausen, Ademola Lukman Adelekan, Joshua A. Salomon, Chakib Nejjari, Josep Maria Haro, Diego De Leo, Faris Lami, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Om P. Singh, Farshad Farzadfar, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Yibeltal Tebekaw Bayou, Norberto Perico, Bruno F. Sunguya, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Ashish Awasthi, Lorenzo Monasta, David O Soti, Hamid Asayesh, Young-Ho Khang, Thomas Fürst, Hmwe H Kyu, Heidi J. Larson, Amber Sligar, Mahesh Anand Padukudru, Ricky Leung, Reed J D Sorensen, Farshad Pourmalek, Liliana G Ciobanu, Luigi Naldi, Kiran Thapa, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Yousef M. Elshrek, Naohiro Yonemoto, Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni, Jennifer O Lam, Neeraj Bedi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Iqbal R. F. Elyazar, Soraya Seedat, Mehdi Javanbakht, Paul S. F. Yip, Grant Nguyen, Peter A. Meaney, Joseph Mikesell, Kebede Deribe, Johan Ärnlöv, Emmanuela Gakidou, Robert W Aldridge, Joseph Robert Ander Fitchett, José das Neves, Ubai Alsharif, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Cyrus Cooper, H. Dean Hosgood, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Liesl Zühlke, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Tim M. Wolock, David M. Pereira, Carla Sofia e Sa Farinha, Miguel Angel Alegretti, Babak Eshrati, Paulo A. Lotufo, Salem Al-Raddadi, Christopher J L Murray, Austin Carter, Rajeev Gupta, Jee-Young Jasmine Choi, Mustafa Z. Younis, Michael R. Phillips, Snehal Patil, Samath D Dharmaratne, Robert P. Dellavalle, George Mugambage Ruhago, Tesfaye Tekle, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Peter W. Gething, Isabela M. Benseñor, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Max Petzold, Chuanhua Yu, Ziyad Al-Aly, Ibrahim Abubakar, Noore Alam, Aletta E. Schutte, Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman, Denis Nash, Luca Ronfani, Manisha Dubey, Lydia S. Atkins, Hans W. Hoek, David C. Schwebel, Jost B. Jonas, Carla Makhlouf, Sergey K Vladimirov, Damian G Hoy, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho, Florian Fischer, and Imad D A Faghmous

Subjects
Burden of disease, medicine.medical_specialty, Operations research, Epidemiology, business.industry, Incidence (epidemiology), Immunology, Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), medicine.disease, medicine.disease_cause, Infectious Diseases, Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), Virology, Family medicine, Medicine, business
Abstract

© 2016 Elsevier Ltd GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet HIV 2016; 3: e361–87—In this Article, Kerrie E Doyle and David M Pereira have been added to the list of collaborators and Claudia C Pereira has been removed. These corrections have been made as of Aug 22, 2016.

Published
2016
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63. 100 years of mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Australia: the role of tobacco consumption

Author

Zoe Dettrick, Damian G Hoy, Alan D. Lopez, and Tim Adair

Subjects
Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine, Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Time Factors, Adolescent, World War II, medicine.medical_treatment, Smoking Prevention, symbols.namesake, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Sex Factors, Risk Factors, Tobacco, medicine, Humans, Poisson regression, Young adult, Mortality, Sex Distribution, Lung cancer, Aged, Consumption (economics), Aged, 80 and over, COPD, Chi-Square Distribution, business.industry, Smoking, Age Factors, Australia, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, respiratory tract diseases, Infectious Diseases, Cohort, Physical therapy, symbols, Linear Models, Smoking cessation, Female, Smoking Cessation, business, Chi-squared distribution, Demography
Abstract

Global studies of the long-term association between tobacco consumption and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have relied upon descriptions of trends. To statistically analyse the relationship of tobacco consumption with data on mortality due to COPD over the past 100 years in Australia. Tobacco consumption was reconstructed back to 1887. Log-linear Poisson regression models were used to analyse cumulative cohort and lagged time-specific smoking data and its relationship with COPD mortality. Age-standardised COPD mortality, although likely misclassified with other diseases, decreased for males and females from 1907 until the start of the Second World War in contrast to steadily rising tobacco consumption. Thereafter, COPD mortality rose sharply in line with trends in smoking, peaking in the early 1970s for males and over 20 years later for females, before falling again. Regression models revealed both cumulative and time-specific tobacco consumption to be strongly predictive of COPD mortality, with a time lag of 15 years for males and 20 years for females. Sharp falls in COPD mortality before the Second World War were unrelated to tobacco consumption. Smoking was the primary driver of post-War trends, and the success of anti-smoking campaigns has sharply reduced COPD mortality levels.

Published
2012

64. Road traffic related mortality in Vietnam: Evidence for policy from a national sample mortality surveillance system

Author

Nguyen Phuong Hoa, Chalapati Rao, Damian G Hoy, Khieu Thi Quynh Trang, Anh D. Ngo, Peter S. Hill, Ngo, Anh D, Rao, Chalapati, Hoa, Nguyen Phuong, Hoy, Damian G, Trang, Khieu Thi Quynh, and Hill, Peter S

Subjects
Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Adolescent, verbal autopsy, Population, Poison control, Public Policy, Occupational safety and health, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Environmental health, Cause of Death, Injury prevention, Epidemiology, medicine, Humans, Verbal autopsy, Sex Distribution, helmet law, Mortality, education, Cause of death, education.field_of_study, business.industry, Mortality rate, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, Accidents, Traffic, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, lcsh:RA1-1270, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, mortality, Helmet law, Road traffic injuries, Motorcycles, road traffic injuries, Vietnam, Population Surveillance, Wounds and Injuries, Female, Medical emergency, Seasons, business, Research Article
Abstract

Background Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are among the leading causes of mortality in Vietnam. However, mortality data collection systems in Vietnam in general and for RTIs in particular, remain inconsistent and incomplete. Underlying distributions of external causes and body injuries are not available from routine data collection systems or from studies till date. This paper presents characteristics, user type pattern, seasonal distribution, and causes of 1,061 deaths attributable to road crashes ascertained from a national sample mortality surveillance system in Vietnam over a two-year period (2008 and 2009). Methods A sample mortality surveillance system was designed for Vietnam, comprising 192 communes in 16 provinces, accounting for approximately 3% of the Vietnamese population. Deaths were identified from commune level data sources, and followed up by verbal autopsy (VA) based ascertainment of cause of death. Age-standardised mortality rates from RTIs were computed. VA questionnaires were analysed in depth to derive descriptive characteristics of RTI deaths in the sample. Results The age-standardized mortality rates from RTIs were 33.5 and 8.5 per 100,000 for males and females respectively. Majority of deaths were males (79%). Seventy three percent of all deaths were aged from 15 to 49 years and 58% were motorcycle users. As high as 80% of deaths occurred on the day of injury, 42% occurred prior to arrival at hospital, and a further 29% occurred on-site. Direct causes of death were identified for 446 deaths (42%) with head injuries being the most common cause attributable to road traffic injuries overall (79%) and to motorcycle crashes in particular (78%). Conclusion The VA method can provide a useful data source to analyse RTI mortality. The observed considerable mortality from head injuries among motorcycle users highlights the need to evaluate current practice and effectiveness of motorcycle helmet use in Vietnam. The high number of deaths occurring on-site or prior to hospital admission indicates a need for effective pre-hospital first aid services and timely access to emergency facilities. In the absence of standardised death certification, sustained efforts are needed to strengthen mortality surveillance sites supplemented by VA to support evidence based monitoring and control of RTI mortality.

Published
2012

65. Mortality measures from sample-based surveillance: evidence of the epidemiological transition in Viet Nam

Author

Nguyen Duc Hinh, Duc Anh Ngo, Nguyen Thi Kim Chuc, Chalapati Rao, Nguyen Phuong Hoa, Damian G Hoy, Hoa, Nguyen Phuong, Rao, Chalapati, Hoy, Damiean G, Hinh, Nguyen Duc, Chuc, Nguyen Thi Kim, and Ngo, Anh Duc

Subjects
Adult, Male, Pediatrics, medicine.medical_specialty, China, Adolescent, Population, Poison control, public-health utility, civil registration systems, Young Adult, Cause of Death, Injury prevention, Humans, Medicine, Life Tables, Child, education, Aged, Cause of death, Aged, 80 and over, validation, education.field_of_study, disease, business.industry, Research, Mortality rate, verbal autopsies, Infant, Newborn, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infant, Middle Aged, Thailand, Verbal autopsy, death statistics, Epidemiological transition, Vietnam, Child, Preschool, Population Surveillance, adult deaths, Female, Cluster sampling, business, Demography, policy
Abstract

Objective To report methods and results from a national sample mortality surveillance programme implemented in Viet Nam in 2009. Conclusion Viet Nam is undergoing the epidemiological transition. Although data are relatively complete, they could be further improved through strengthened local collaboration. Medical certification for deaths in hospitals, and shorter recall periods for verbal autopsy interviews would improve cause of death ascertainment. Findings A total of 9921 deaths were identified in the sample population. Completeness of death records was estimated to be 81%. Adjusted life expectancies at birth were 70.4 and 78.7 years for males and females, respectively. Stroke was the leading cause of death in both sexes. Other prominent causes were road traffic accidents, cancers and HIV infection in males, and cardiovascular conditions, pneumonia and diabetes in females. Methods A national sample of 192 communes located in 16 provinces and covering a population of approximately 2.6 million was selected using multi-stage cluster sampling. Deaths for 2009 were identified from several local data sources. Record reconciliation and capture-recapture methods were used to compile data and assess completeness of the records. Life tables were computed using reported and adjusted age-specific death rates. Each death was followed up by verbal autopsy to ascertain the probable cause(s) of death. Underlying causes were certified and coded according to international guidelines. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Published
2012

66. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Author

Majid Ezzati, Janet L Leasher, Young-Ho Khang, Nigel Bruce, Tim Driscoll, Aaron van Donkelaar, Cindy Kok, Loraine J. Bacchus, Mohammad A. AlMazroa, Emma Smith, Gail Falder, Isabelle Romieu, Charles Atkinson, Richard T. Burnett, Steven T. Wiersma, Mariel M. Finucane, Uchechukwu Sampson, Adrian Davis, Soraya Seedat, Lesley Rushton, Patricia J. Erwin, Michael Phillips, Wayne Hall, Tim Lathlean, Paul S. F. Yip, Max Petzold, George D. Thurston, Emily Carnahan, Hywel C Williams, Michael Freeman, Sydney E. Ibeanusi, Markus Amann, Kurt Straif, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Kathryn G. Andrews, Lakshmi Vijayakumar, Andrew T. A. Cheng, Jimmy H. Tran, Harvey Whiteford, Neil Pearce, Pamela M. Pelizzari, Amanda J Baxter, Paul K. Nelson, Frederick P. Rivara, Emmanuela Gakidou, Yuan Lu, Saad B. Omer, Fiona M. Blyth, Michelle L. Bell, Mukesh Dherani, Dariush Mozaffarian, Anthony Hogan, Gemma Jacklyn, E. Ray Dorsey, Jennifer C. Child, Peter Brooks, Farshad Farzadfar, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Richard H. Osborne, Amir Sapkota, Theo Vos, Guilherme Borges, C. Arden Pope, Kevin D. Shield, Susan Darling, K. Ellicott Colson, Robin Marks, Jed D. Blore, Steven E. Lipshultz, John J. McGrath, Joshua A. Salomon, Kenji Shibuya, Heidi Stöckl, Kiran Pandey, Martin J. Aryee, Catherine Michaud, Rita Van Dingenen, Lahn Straney, Ananya Roy, Gitanjali M Singh, Lisa C. Rosenfeld, Eva Rehfuess, Rachelle Buchbinder, Myrna M. Weissman, Khayriyyah Mohd Hanafiah, Reza Malekzadeh, Bryan Hubbell, Claire Bryan-Hancock, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Jon-Paul Khoo, Richard A. White, Shahab Khatibzadeh, Kyle Steenland, Homie Razavi, Qing Lan, Alize J. Ferrari, Edward Giovannucci, Thomas Roberts, Anthony D. Woolf, Mayuree Rao, Alan D. Lopez, Hialy R. Gutierrez, Joelle Mak, Rebecca Grainger, Jose Adolfo Rodriguez-Portales, Daniel Pope, Yang Li, Honglei Chen, Bruce Neal, Michael Brauer, H. Dean Hosgood, Andrew Page, Kathryn Graham, Aaron Cohen, Saman Fahimi, Benjamin C Cowie, Lars Jacob Stovner, Eric L. Ding, Howard Hu, Zoë Chafe, Rashmi Jasrasaria, Rosana E. Norman, Stephen S Lim, Haidong Kan, Don C. Des Jarlais, Mohsen Naghavi, Jian Shen Chen, Ziad A. Memish, Rupert R A Bourne, Lidia Sanchez-Riera, Ali A. Mokdad, Erin Passmore, Jessica Orchard, Lidia Morawska, Renata Micha, Heather Adair-Rohani, H. Ross Anderson, Abraham D. Flaxman, Carolyn Robinson, Robert G. Weintraub, Frank Dentener, Joan M. Nolla, Bianca Calabria, Wagner Marcenes, Adil N. Bahalim, Francine Laden, Rupak Shivakoti, Rebecca E. Engell, Jan M Zielinski, Tasha B. Murphy, Sally Hutchings, Nicolas J. C. Stapelberg, Goodarz Danaei, Karen Devries, J. Lennert Veerman, Beate Ritz, Paul McGale, Michel Boussinesq, Robin Room, Seth Flaxman, Christopher J L Murray, Jonathan R. Carapetis, Fiona J Charlson, Jürgen Rehm, Jayadeep Patra, Bart Ostro, Casey Olives, Carissa Bonner, Leslie Mallinger, Lyn March, Karen Edmond, Norito Kawakami, Bert Brunekreef, Charles D. H. Parry, S. Ali, David Gunnell, Nick Wilson, James D. Wilkinson, David A. Sleet, Ella Sanman, F.G.R. Fowkes, Vinod Mishra, George A. Mensah, James Leigh, Stephanie J. London, Rafael Lozano, Damian G Hoy, Randall V. Martin, Kirk R. Smith, Chiara Bucello, Greg Freedman, John A. Kanis, Ratilal Lalloo, Warwick Williams, John Powles, Fiona Bull, Tim Byers, Hans W. Hoek, Gerhard Gmel, John K Lin, Jost B. Jonas, Peilin Shi, Santu Ghosh, Louisa Degenhardt, Sarah C. Darby, John R. Balmes, Sumi Mehta, Bridget F. Grant, Tony R. Merriman, Universitat de Barcelona, Risk Assessment of Toxic and Immunomodulatory Agents, and Dep IRAS

Subjects
Gerontology, Adult, Male, Adolescent, Risk factors in diseases, Poison control, Global Health, Risk Assessment, Article, Young Adult, Sex Factors, Risk Factors, Environmental health, Medicine, Humans, Risk factor, Mortality, Omega 3 fatty acid, Child, Causes of death, Disease burden, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, business.industry, Factors de risc en les malalties, Causes de la mort, Age Factors, Infant, Newborn, Infant, General Medicine, Middle Aged, Quality-adjusted life year, Years of potential life lost, Relative risk, Child, Preschool, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, business, Risk assessment
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS: We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS: In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION: Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2012

67. Musculoskeletal pain on the global stage: what next?

Author

Fiona M. Blyth, Damian G Hoy, and Lyn March

Subjects
Government, Veterinary medicine, medicine.medical_specialty, Public economics, business.industry, Essay, Public health, Chronic pain, Context (language use), medicine.disease, Behavioral Neuroscience, Health psychology, Cross-cultural psychology, Health care, Medicine, business, Applied Psychology, Health policy
Abstract

In this essay, we describe two recent developments in global public health efforts in the chronic pain field and use the example of musculoskeletal pain to explore some of the implications arising from these developments. The first is the recognition of chronic pain as a condition in its own right, which has been the impetus for several national and one recent international pain summits that have translated that into a call for recognition, rights and resources for people with pain. The other development is the first comprehensive attempt to measure the global burden of musculoskeletal conditions in the current round of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2010). In essence, the task here has been to translate epidemiological data from all countries where data are available into standardised measures of the overall burden of musculoskeletal conditions to allow comparison of the burden relative to other conditions, and to identify the proportion of the burden that is attributable to a set of common risk factors. Past rounds of the GBD have been influential in priority setting and allocation of health funding by the World Health Organisation and national governments. The current GBD 2010 Study is occurring in the context of changes in thinking about how to fund health care in a global context. These changes are away from disease-specific programmes to more ‘integrated’ approaches, and thus represent a potential challenge to the calls to consider pain-focussed funding. We explore the strategic implications of both of these developments for translating our better understanding of the problem of musculoskeletal pain into effective policy action.

Published
2011

68. The epidemiology of neck pain

Author

Rachelle Buchbinder, Damian G Hoy, R De, and Melinda M. Protani

Subjects
Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Population, Prevalence, Upper limb pain, Global Health, Sex Factors, Rheumatology, Epidemiology, medicine, Global health, Humans, education, Neck pain, education.field_of_study, Neck Pain, business.industry, Incidence (epidemiology), Incidence, Health Care Costs, Low back pain, Occupational Diseases, Physical therapy, Female, medicine.symptom, business, Demography
Abstract

Neck pain is becoming increasingly common throughout the world. It has a considerable impact on individuals and their families, communities, health-care systems, and businesses. There is substantial heterogeneity between neck pain epidemiological studies, which makes it difficult to compare or pool data from different studies. The estimated 1 year incidence of neck pain from available studies ranges between 10.4% and 21.3% with a higher incidence noted in office and computer workers. While some studies report that between 33% and 65% of people have recovered from an episode of neck pain at 1 year, most cases run an episodic course over a person's lifetime and, thus, relapses are common. The overall prevalence of neck pain in the general population ranges between 0.4% and 86.8% (mean: 23.1%); point prevalence ranges from 0.4% to 41.5% (mean: 14.4%); and 1 year prevalence ranges from 4.8% to 79.5% (mean: 25.8%). Prevalence is generally higher in women, higher in high-income countries compared with low- and middle-income countries and higher in urban areas compared with rural areas. Many environmental and personal factors influence the onset and course of neck pain. Most studies indicate a higher incidence of neck pain among women and an increased risk of developing neck pain until the 35-49-year age group, after which the risk begins to decline. The Global Burden of Disease 2005 Study is currently making estimates of the global burden of neck pain in relation to impairment and activity limitation, and results will be available in 2011.

Published
2011

69. Trends in oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer mortality in Australia: the comparative importance of tobacco, alcohol and other risk factors

Author

Tim Adair, Damian G Hoy, Zoe Dettrick, and Alan D. Lopez

Subjects
Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Alcohol Drinking, Esophageal Neoplasms, medicine.medical_treatment, Cohort Studies, symbols.namesake, Age Distribution, Risk Factors, Tobacco, Vegetables, medicine, Prevalence, Humans, Poisson regression, Sex Distribution, Mouth neoplasm, business.industry, Carcinoma, Smoking, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Australia, Cancer, Pharyngeal Neoplasms, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Surgery, Substance abuse, Pharyngeal Neoplasm, Logistic Models, Fruit, Population Surveillance, symbols, Smoking cessation, Female, Mouth Neoplasms, Oral pharyngeal, business, Demography, Cohort study
Abstract

The relationship of long-term population-level trends in oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer mortality with major risk factors such as tobacco consumption have not been statistically analysed in Australia. We have demonstrated the long-term implications using historical data. Estimated age and sex-specific tobacco consumption back-extrapolated to 1887 were used together with alcohol and fruit and vegetable consumption data to examine their association with trends in oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer mortality. Log-linear Poisson regression models were applied to specify the relationship with oesophageal and pharyngeal mortality data. Oral cancer mortality for males decreased sharply in the first half of the 20th Century in contrast to steadily rising tobacco consumption. Female oral and pharyngeal cancer remained steady at low levels. Post-World War II male and female oesophageal and male pharyngeal cancer mortality rose, then either fell or stabilised, without a clear relationship with risk factors. Tobacco and alcohol consumption have influenced post-World War II trends in oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer mortality. However, the challenges in using historical population level data prevent precise interpretation of findings. There is increased exposure to risk factors for these cancers in many low- and middle-income countries. In particular, smoking cessation programs are needed to prevent increases in mortality from these cancers in such countries.

Published
2011

70. Tobacco consumption and pancreatic cancer mortality: what can we conclude from historical data in Australia?

Author

Damian G Hoy, Alan D. Lopez, Tim Adair, and Zoe Dettrick

Subjects
Male, Cohort Studies, symbols.namesake, Sex Factors, Risk Factors, Pancreatic cancer, Vegetables, Prevalence, Medicine, Humans, Poisson regression, Risk factor, Mortality, Smoking Reduction, Consumption (economics), business.industry, Tobacco control, Smoking, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Australia, Feeding Behavior, medicine.disease, Pancreatic Neoplasms, Logistic Models, Fruit, Cohort, symbols, Female, business, Demography, Cohort study
Abstract

Background: Tobacco consumption is an established risk factor for pancreatic cancer yet studies of long-term mortality trends have not statistically analysed this relationship. We sought evidence for this relationship based on an analysis of long-term population-level data in Australia. Methods: Pancreatic cancer mortality data from 1931, tobacco consumption data and fruit and vegetable consumption data for Australia were utilized. Log-linear Poisson regression models were used to analyse pancreatic cancer mortality from 1931 with cumulative cohort and lagged time-specific tobacco consumption data and fruit and vegetable consumption data. Results: Pancreatic cancer mortality rose steadily for males until it began falling from the 1970s, and continued rising for females until 2006. These trends correspond with a long-term rise in male tobacco consumption until the 1960s and a later peak for females. Our models show that cumulative tobacco consumption predicts pancreatic cancer mortality for both sexes but with time lags only being significant for males. Fruit and vegetable consumption provides a protective effect against mortality in some of the models. Conclusion: The success of smoking reduction programmes in Australia has contributed to the decline in pancreatic cancer mortality for males, providing important evidence about the need for tobacco control measures in populations where it is still increasing. Continued declines in female tobacco consumption should lead to a reversal of the long-term rise in female pancreatic cancer mortality.

Published
2011

71. Working together to address disability in a culturally-appropriate and sustainable manner

Author

Somphao Bounnaphol, Rungthip Puntumetakul, Joanne Durham, Anne Muijlwijk, Ghulam F. Mansoor, Keith T. Rickart, and Damian G Hoy

Subjects
business.industry, Rehabilitation, Culture, Developing country, Capacity building, Context (language use), Health Promotion, Public relations, Self Efficacy, Face-to-face, Nursing, Sustainability, Humans, Disabled Persons, Medical model of disability, Sociology, business, Disability research, Culturally appropriate
Abstract

Purpose. Disability has an enormous impact throughout the world. An increasing amount of important disability research and practice is being undertaken in low-income settings; however, success and sustainability of programmes in these contexts can often be challenging. We share lessons from our experiences.Method. We reviewed past literature and international consensus statements relating to disability and development practice. We then held several face to face and email discussions to document the key lessons we have learnt from working in this context. We report on these in this paper.Results. The key lessons are to invest adequate time and develop trusting relationships, undertake sufficient consultation and collaboration, include and empower persons with disability, and view capacity building as a two-way process.Conclusions. Improving the lives of persons with disability in development contexts is likely to be best achieved through processes that are inclusive, owned and driven by local communities.

Published
2010

72. Prevalence and sociodemographic risk factors of chlamydia, gonorrhoea and syphilis: a national multicentre STI survey in New Caledonia, 2012

Author

Bernard Rouchon, Philippe Corsenac, Martine Noël, Adam Roth, and Damian G Hoy

Subjects
Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Pathology, Adolescent, Cross-sectional study, Gonorrhea, Population, Prevalence, Chlamydia trachomatis, Young Adult, New Caledonia, Risk Factors, Epidemiology, medicine, Humans, Treponema pallidum, Socio-demographic risk factors, Syphilis, Latent Syphilis, education, education.field_of_study, Chlamydia, business.industry, Research, General Medicine, Chlamydia Infections, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Health Surveys, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Cross-Sectional Studies, Logistic Models, Socioeconomic Factors, Female, Sexual Health, business, Demography
Abstract

Objectives To estimate prevalence and identify sociodemographic risk factors for Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Treponema pallidum infections in New Caledonia. Method A national cross-sectional survey was undertaken using a three-stage random sampling of general practice surgeries and public dispensaries. Participants were included through opportunistic screening and using a systematic step for selection. The study sample was weighted to the general population aged 18–49 years. Prevalence and risk factors were calculated by logistic regression. Results CT was the most common sexually transmitted infection, with a prevalence of 9% (95% CI 6.6% to %11.4), followed by NG 3.5% (95% CI 1.9% to 5.1%), previous or latent syphilis 3% (95% CI 1.7% to 4.3%), NG and CT co-infection 2.1% (95% CI 0.8% to 3.3%) and active syphilis 0.4% (95% CI 0.0% to 0.9%). Being from a young age group (18–25 years), being single, having a low level of education and province of residence were all associated with higher prevalence of all three STIs. Being of Melanesian origin was associated with higher prevalence of both CT and NG. There was a significant interaction between ethnic group and province of residence for prevalence of CT. Female gender was associated with higher prevalence of CT. Conclusions The prevalence of CT was similar to estimates from other healthcare-based surveys from the Pacific, but higher for NG and lower for active syphilis infection. All sexually transmitted infections estimates were much higher than those found in population-based surveys from Europe and the USA. The sociodemographic risk factors identified in this study will help guide targeted prevention and control strategies in New Caledonia.

Published
2015
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73. Low back pain in rural Tibet

Author

Damian G Hoy, Michael J. Toole, Christopher Morgan, and Damien W Morgan

Subjects
Adult, Rural Population, medicine.medical_specialty, Random cluster, Adolescent, Cross-sectional study, Psychological intervention, Prevalence, Tibet, health services administration, medicine, Back pain, Humans, business.industry, General Medicine, Low back pain, Cross-Sectional Studies, Functional disability, Physical therapy, population characteristics, Female, medicine.symptom, Rural area, business, human activities, Low Back Pain, Demography
Abstract

In a baseline assessment of 30 rural villages surrounding Shigatse City, Tibet, many people, especially women, identified low back pain as a serious health problem. Consequently, we aimed to establish the prevalence of such pain and to develop appropriate interventions. We did a cross-sectional study of the prevalence of low back pain and related functional disability using two-stage random cluster sampling. We included 499 adults aged at least 15 years from 19 villages. The point prevalence of low back pain was 34.1% (95% CI 27.9-40.3% [170 people]); the 12-month prevalence was 41.9% (35.5-48.3% [209 people]). 100 (20%) villagers had substantial functional disability associated with low back pain. Low back pain is likely to be an important and under recognised problem in rural societies like Tibet.

Published
2003

74. 25×25 strategy for the burden of non-communicable diseases

Author

Damian G Hoy, Peter Brooks, Anthony D. Woolf, and Lyn March

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, business.industry, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, MEDLINE, lcsh:RA1-1270, General Medicine, Global Health, Chronic disease, Chronic Disease, Global health, Humans, Medicine, business, Intensive care medicine
Published
2014
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75. Response to: ‘Overweight/obesity and vitamin D deficiency contribute to the global burden of low back pain’ by Professor Grant

Author

Peter Brooks, Rachelle Buchbinder, Lyn March, Damian G Hoy, Anthony D. Woolf, Fiona M. Blyth, and Emma Smith

Subjects
Male, Burden of disease, Gerontology, medicine.medical_specialty, Immunology, Alternative medicine, Global Health, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, vitamin D deficiency, Rheumatology, Activities of Daily Living, Epidemiology, medicine, Humans, Immunology and Allergy, business.industry, Overweight obesity, medicine.disease, Low back pain, Physical therapy, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, medicine.symptom, Outcomes research, business, Low Back Pain
Abstract

We would like to thank William B Grant for his letter1 on our paper ‘The global burden of low back pain: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study’.2 We fully agree with Professor …

Published
2014
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76. Easing some burden for future Burden of Disease studies: lessons learnt from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study—the Musculoskeletal Expert Group's point of view

Author

Richard H. Osborne, Lidia Sanchez Riera, Anthony D. Woolf, Fiona M. Blyth, Damian G Hoy, Lyn March, Rachelle Buchbinder, Emma Smith, and Marita Cross

Subjects
Medical education, education.field_of_study, Data collection, business.industry, End user, media_common.quotation_subject, Population, General Medicine, Funding Mechanism, Systematic review, Work (electrical), Data quality, Medicine, Quality (business), business, education, media_common
Abstract

Background In the original Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 1990, there was minimal involvement of clinical experts. By contrast, it was a key focus for GBD Study 2010 to explicitly engage a large and diverse group of experts. From the outset, the extent of the work involved from both the expert groups and the core team was a big unknown. Our aim is to reflect on the experiences of the Musculoskeletal Disorders and Risk Factors Expert Group (MSK EG), led by Professor Lyn March at University of Sydney, and to make constructive suggestions to the Core Team for future studies. Methods Synthesis of issues documented and discussed by MSK EG through the course of GBD 2010. Findings EG advice was critical for the accurate collection and interpretation of data. There were active problems throughout the process, notably in the following areas: (1) significant heterogeneity in the quality of epidemiological data available to be included in the systematic reviews; (2) timely interaction and due consultation by the Core Team with EGs relating to (a) ongoing changes to key aspects of the methodology and modelling and (b) finalisation and interpretation of results; and (3) project support for the EGs. Interpretation Our main suggestions are (1) to expand data collection, improve data quality, and strengthen methodology by (a) publication of guidelines for population-based studies to provide information in a more standardised format, and (b) forward engagement with end users of GBD and data collection agencies at a national level by the Core Team to facilitate the activities linked to gathering and collating the GBD data; (2) for EGs to continue to play an integral part of any future studies, and for the communication between the Core Team and EGs over data matters, methodology, and interpretation of results to be improved; and (3) to put in place, by the Core Team, a funding mechanism to provide adequate support to EGs throughout the course of the study. Funding Australian Commonwealth Government, the Institute of Bone and Joint Research (IBJR) at the University of Sydney, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2013
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77. In rural Tibet, the prevalence of lower limb pain, especially knee pain, is high: an observational study

Author

Peter Brooks, Joanne Durham, Marlene Fransen, Damian G Hoy, Lyn March, and Michael J. Toole

Subjects
Adult, Male, Rural Population, medicine.medical_specialty, Activities of daily living, Adolescent, Knee Joint, Population, Prevalence, Pain, Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy and Rehabilitation, Observation, Lower limb, Leg, Knee, Pain, Prevalence, Rural, Tibet, Tibet, Risk Factors, Surveys and Questionnaires, Activities of Daily Living, medicine, Cluster Analysis, Humans, Musculoskeletal Diseases, education, Aged, Pain Measurement, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, business.industry, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Obesity, Lower limb pain, Knee pain, Lower Extremity, Physical therapy, Squatting position, Observational study, Female, medicine.symptom, business
Abstract

Question What is the point prevalence and 12-month prevalence of lower limb musculoskeletal pain in rural Tibet? Does this differ with gender or age? What factors that could contribute to lower limb musculoskeletal pain are commonly present? Design Observational study using an investigator-administered questionnaire and observation walks through villages. Participants 499 people aged 15 years and over living in 19 rural villages of Shigatse Municipality, Tibet. Results The point prevalence of lower limb musculoskeletal pain was 40% (95% CI 34 to 46) while the 12-month prevalence was 48% (95% CI 42 to 54). In particular, the point prevalence of knee pain was 25% (95% CI 20 to 30) and the 12-month prevalence was 29% (95% CI 23 to 35), which was significantly higher than at any other site in the lower limb. On average, being female was not associated with lower limb musculoskeletal pain either currently (OR 1.3, 95% CI 0.9 to 1.9) or over the previous 12 months (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.9 to 1.8), whereas being older than 50 years was, both for current pain (OR 4.1, 95% CI 2.8 to 6.1) and pain over the previous 12 months (OR 4.0, 95% CI 2.7 to 6.0). Observation walks through the villages revealed people squatting for sustained periods, carrying heavy loads for long distances, wearing poor quality footwear, and with severe bowing of the legs but no obesity. Conclusion Lower limb musculoskeletal pain, particularly knee pain, is common in this rural Tibetan population. They live an extremely arduous life that appears to place considerable pressure on their knees.

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78. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Author

Audrey Bonaventure, Sumeet S. Chugh, Roderick J. Hay, Luigi Naldi, Derrick A Bennett, Bridget F. Grant, Tony R. Merriman, Goodarz Danaei, Francine Laden, Rupak Shivakoti, Steven D. Colan, Kovin Naidoo, Kyle J Foreman, David A. Sleet, Aref A. Bin Abdulhak, Christopher J L Murray, Marita Cross, S. Ali, Karen Courville De Vaccaro, Richard F. Gillum, Herbert C. Duber, R Gupta, Carol Brayne, Fernando Perez-Ruiz, David Gunnell, Janet L Leasher, Dharani Ranganathan, James Leigh, Maria Loane, Kathryn G. Andrews, Steven T. Wiersma, Mengru Wang, Ella Sanman, Andrea Panozo Rivero, Robert G. Weintraub, Giorgio Tamburlini, F.G.R. Fowkes, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Safa Abdalla, Michael Phillips, Jürgen Rehm, Hannah Blencowe, George A. Mensah, Jeffrey A. Towbin, James D. Wilkinson, Pon Hsiu Yeh, Hammad A. Ganatra, Soufiane Boufous, Adrian Davis, Myles Connor, Simon Brooker, Bruno Hoen, Josep Maria Haro, Seth Flaxman, Ziad A. Memish, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Patricia Espindola, Laurie M. Anderson, Sarah Derrett, Esteban Porrini, Don C. Des Jarlais, Samath D Dharmaratne, Steven E. Lipshultz, Robert P. Dellavalle, Spencer L. James, Cleusa P. Ferri, Kerrianne Watt, Mohammad A. AlMazroa, Emma Smith, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Wei Liu, Mariel M. Finucane, Rupert R A Bourne, Uchechukwu Sampson, Valeria Miglioli, Summer Lockett Ohno, Michael C. Nevitt, Michael K Mwaniki, Kaustubh Dabhadkar, Harvey Whiteford, David Singh, Doruk Ozgediz, Luca Ronfani, Peter Burney, Juanita A. Haagsma, Holly Hagan, Loreto Carmona, Ali A. Mokdad, Bishnu Pahari, Patricia J. Erwin, Jonathan R. Carapetis, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Imad M. Tleyjeh, Bishal Bhandari, Emmanuela Gakidou, John J Huang, Paul K. Nelson, Lisa C. Rosenfeld, David Phillips, Michael S Lipnick, Louise Flood, Lidia Sanchez-Riera, John R. Condon, Robin Marks, Jasvinder A. Singh, Charles R. Newton, Adofo Koranteng, Hugh R. Taylor, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Nicole E. Johns, Elizabeth S Limb, Roy Burstein, Christine M. Budke, Amanda J Baxter, Tim Driscoll, Lesley Rushton, Casey Olives, Andrew E. Moran, Richard A. Gosselin, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Theo Vos, Jacqueline Mabweijano, James Scott, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Rogelio Perez Padilla, Neil McGill, Beth E. Ebel, John K Lin, Marc G. Weisskopf, Jeyaraj D Pandian, Ratilal Lalloo, Matthew J. Miller, Hélène Carabin, Allyne Delossantos, Leslie T. Cooper, Sandra Nolte, Andrew C Steer, Daphna Levinson, Nabila Dahodwala, G. Remuzzi, Christopher Hill, Ted R. Miller, Diana Haring, Andre Keren, Holly E. Erskine, Hwashin Shin, Sukanta Saha, Louisa Degenhardt, Ralph L. Sacco, Leslie Mallinger, Guilherme V. Polanczyk, Felipe Rodriguez De Leòn, Maria Segui-Gomez, Reza Malekzadeh, Akira Matsumori, James Harrison, Honglei Chen, Luc E. Coffeng, Joshua A. Salomon, David Chou, Wagner Marcenes, Clotilde Ubeda, Helen Dolk, Sean R.M. Williams, Jerry Abraham, Sana Syed, William G. Couser, Lope H Barrero, K. Ellicott Colson, Wenzhi Wang, Ian Bolliger, Homie Razavi, Laura L Laslett, William J. Taylor, Anita K. M. Zaidi, Guy B. Marks, María-Gloria Basáñez, Claudia Cella, Miriam Alvarado, Saeid Shahraz, John J. McGrath, David J. Margolis, Neil Pearce, Charles Mock, Yara A. Halasa, Robin Room, David J. Weatherall, Kathryn Richardson, Karen Sliwa, Rafael Lozano, Diego De Leo, Zhi Jie Zheng, Peter Brooks, Thomas Roberts, Anthony D. Woolf, Paul Norman, Lorenzo Monasta, Majid Ezzati, Mohammed K. Ali, Frederick P. Rivara, Timothy J. Steiner, María Elena Medina-Mora, Kavi Bhalla, Victor Aboyans, Mathilda Regan, Stalin E. Ewoigbokhan, Michele Meltzer, Damian G Hoy, Charles E. Canter, Belinda J. Gabbe, Matthew A. Corriere, Sébastien D. S. Pion, Gretchen L. Birbeck, Geoffrey Buckle, Stephanie Y. Ahn, Martin A. Weinstock, Ronan A Lyons, Karen Edmond, Terrie E. Moffitt, Farshad Farzadfar, Norito Kawakami, W. Murray Thomson, Abraham D. Flaxman, Boris Bikbov, Jessica Singleton, Rachel L. Pullan, Simon J. O’Hanlon, Howard J. Hoffman, Svetlana Popova, Charles Atkinson, Saad B. Omer, Sherine E. Gabriel, Jim van Os, David T. Felson, Bianca Garcia, Wayne Hall, Sydney E. Ibeanusi, Philip B. Mitchell, Chiara Bucello, Michelle L. Bell, Flavio Gaspari, Donald H. Silberberg, Alexis Elbaz, Monica S. Vavilala, Tim Lathlean, Samantha M. Colquhoun, Kelsey Pierce, Larry M. Baddour, Michael H. Criqui, Ana Olga Mocumbi, Francis Guillemin, Farshad Pourmalek, Robert G. Nelson, Mary M. McDermott, M. Nathan Nair, Justina Groeger, Manu Dahiya, Rebecca Grainger, Yong Yi Lee, Emma Witt, Kenji Shibuya, Eduardo Bernabé, Alize J. Ferrari, George D. Thurston, Rakesh Aggarwal, David C. Schwebel, Gerhard Gmel, Jost B. Jonas, Hideki Higashi, Andrew Page, Peter J. Hotez, Hywel C Williams, Michael Freeman, Marcello Tonelli, Bernadette Thomas, Richard H. Osborne, David B. Rein, Lisa Bridgett, Jed D. Blore, Olive Kobusingye, Mukesh Dherani, Rita Krishnamurthi, Lisa M. Knowlton, Miltiadis K. Tsilimbaris, Rintaro Mori, E. Ray Dorsey, Katrina F Ortblad, Deborah Jarvis, Martin O'Donnell, Jon Paul Khoo, Valery L. Feigin, Ana-Claire Meyer, Kapa D. Ramaiah, Wilma A. Stolk, Michele E. Murdoch, Bianca Calabria, Cesar Diaz-Torne, James A. Black, Michael F. MacIntyre, Rachelle Buchbinder, C. Arden Pope, Donald S. Shepard, Monica Cortinovis, Richard Matzopoulos, Frederick Wolfe, Lidia Morawska, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Stephen S Lim, Diego Gonzalez-Medina, Traolach S. Brugha, Sivabalan Manivannan, Benjamin C Cowie, David Zonies, Emelia J. Benjamin, Sudha Jayaraman, Catherine Michaud, Gitanjali M Singh, Alan D. Lopez, K.M. Venkat Narayan, Fiona M. Blyth, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Benjamin L. Campbell, Carolyn Robinson, Suzanne Polinder, Marlene Fransen, Thomas Truelsen, Rasmus Havmoeller, Bongani M. Mayosi, Konrad Pesudovs, Myrna M. Weissman, Tasanee Braithwaite, Claire Bryan-Hancock, James Damsere-Derry, Richard A. White, John H. McAnulty, Natasha Wiebe, Fiona J Charlson, Norberto Perico, Charles H. King, Lyn March, Andrew T. A. Cheng, Ilana N. Ackerman, Rosana E. Norman, Jennifer L. Smith, Michael Burch, Adil N. Bahalim, Eric M. Fèvre, H. Ross Anderson, Julie O. Denenberg, Nicolas J. C. Stapelberg, David Bartels, Michel Boussinesq, Marieke J. van der Werf, Scott B. Patten, Marcella Montico, Rashmi Jasrasaria, Sarah Wulf, Lars Jacob Stovner, Mohsen Naghavi, Jennifer A. Taylor, Martin Prince, Christopher R. Sudfeld, Neuroépidémiologie Tropicale ( NET ), CHU Limoges-Institut d'Epidémiologie Neurologique et de Neurologie Tropicale-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ) -Institut Génomique, Environnement, Immunité, Santé, Thérapeutique ( GEIST ), Université de Limoges ( UNILIM ) -Université de Limoges ( UNILIM ), Service de Chirurgie Thoracique et Vasculaire - Médecine vasculaire [CHU Limoges], CHU Limoges, Bioinformatics, GlaxoSmithKline, Institut Jacques Monod ( IJM ), Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 ( UPD7 ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Institute of Parasitology, Respiratory Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College London-Royal Brompton Hospital-National Heart and Lung Institute, EUROCAT Central Registry, Institute for Nursing Research-University of Ulster, Neuroépidémiologie, Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ), Centre d'Epidémiologie Clinique ( CIC-EC ), Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy ( CHRU Nancy ) -Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ), University of Bristol [Bristol], Laboratoire Chrono-environnement ( LCE ), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté ( UBFC ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Franche-Comté ( UFC ), Service des maladies infectieuses et tropicales, Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire [Besançon] ( CHRU Besançon ) -Hôpital Saint-Jacques, Respiratory Epidemiology and Public Health Group, Imperial College London-National Heart and Lung Institute, Research & Planning, Mental Health Services, Ministry of Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Anaesthetics, Southampton University Hospital, Cisco Systems, CISCO Systems, Inc, Department of dermatology, Milano University-Azienda Ospedaleria Ospedali Riuniti di Bergamo, Massey University Wellington Campus, centre for photomolecular science, Imperial College London, Department of Radiology, Weill Medical College of Cornell University [New York], Department of neurology, Miller School of Medicine-University of Miami [Coral Gables], Department of Pediatrics, Institute of Child Health, IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Département Cité des métiers - Cité de la santé - Universcience ( CDM/CDS ), Cité des Sciences et de l'Industrie, The Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Oxford [Oxford], Neuroépidémiologie Tropicale (NET), CHU Limoges-Institut d'Epidémiologie Neurologique et de Neurologie Tropicale-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Institut Génomique, Environnement, Immunité, Santé, Thérapeutique (GEIST), Université de Limoges (UNILIM)-Université de Limoges (UNILIM), Institut Jacques Monod (IJM (UMR_7592)), Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Imperial College London-Royal Brompton Hospital-National Heart and Lung Institute [UK], Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Centre d'Epidémiologie Clinique (CIC-EC), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy), Laboratoire Chrono-environnement - UFC (UMR 6249) (LCE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC), Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire [Besançon] (CHRU Besançon)-Hôpital Saint-Jacques, Imperial College London-National Heart and Lung Institute [UK], Ministry of Health [Mozambique], Massey University, University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine (UMMSM), Département Cité des métiers - Cité de la santé - Universcience (CDM/CDS), Psychiatrie & Neuropsychologie, RS: MHeNs School for Mental Health and Neuroscience, Centre d'investigation clinique - Epidémiologie clinique [Nancy] (CIC-EC), Centre d'investigation clinique [Nancy] (CIC), Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL), Laboratoire Chrono-environnement - CNRS - UBFC (UMR 6249) (LCE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC), Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Besançon (CHRU Besançon)-Hôpital Saint-Jacques, Laboratoire Chrono-environnement (UMR 6249) (LCE), University of Miami Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine (UMMSM)-University of Miami [Coral Gables], University of Oxford, Cardiothoracic Surgery, Public Health, Immunology, and Cell biology

Subjects
Gerontology, Male, MESH : Prevalence, Health Status, MESH : Aged, Poison control, Public-health utility, MESH : Child, Preschool, Global Health, 0302 clinical medicine, MESH: Aged, 80 and over, MESH : Child, [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, MESH: Child, Prevalence, MESH : Female, 030212 general & internal medicine, Child, MESH: Health Status, MESH: Aged, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Communicable disease, MESH: Middle Aged, MESH: Infant, Newborn, 1. No poverty, Age Factors, MESH : Infant, General Medicine, Middle Aged, MESH : Adult, MESH: Infant, Countries, 3. Good health, MESH : Wounds and Injuries, Risk-factors, MESH: Quality-Adjusted Life Years, MESH : World Health, [ SDV.MHEP.MI ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, MESH: Young Adult, Child, Preschool, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Lost, Adult, Adolescent, MESH : Male, MESH : Sex Factors, Population, MESH : Young Adult, MESH : Infant, Newborn, 03 medical and health sciences, Expectancy, Young Adult, Sex Factors, MESH: Sex Factors, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, MESH : Adolescent, medicine, Disability-adjusted life year, Humans, Economic cost, MESH : Middle Aged, Mortality, MESH : Health Status, education, MESH : Aged, 80 and over, Disease burden, MESH: Prevalence, Aged, MESH: Adolescent, MESH: Age Factors, MESH: Humans, business.industry, MESH: Child, Preschool, MESH : Humans, Australia, Infant, Newborn, Infant, MESH: Adult, MESH : Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Non-communicable disease, medicine.disease, MESH: Male, Quality-adjusted life year, Years of potential life lost, MESH: Wounds and Injuries, Wounds and Injuries, MESH : Age Factors, Copd, business, MESH: Female, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, MESH: World Health, Demography
Abstract

International audience; BACKGROUND: Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS: We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS: Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2*503 billion) to 2010 (2*490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION: Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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79. SEVERITY OF OSTEOARTHRITIS IN GLOBAL POPULATIONS

Author

Lisa Bridgett, Ilana N. Ackerman, Damian G Hoy, Theo Vos, Marita Cross, Lyn March, Richard H. Osborne, Rachelle Buchbinder, EU Smtih, Marlene Fransen, Sean R.M. Williams, Flavia M. Cicuttini, Graeme Jones, Christopher Hill, Sandra Nolte, Laura L Laslett, and Anthony D. Woolf

Subjects
musculoskeletal diseases, medicine.medical_specialty, business.industry, Biomedical Engineering, Osteoarthritis, medicine.disease, Rheumatology, Internal medicine, Orthopedic surgery, Physical therapy, Medicine, Orthopedics and Sports Medicine, business

80. A systematic review of cervical cancer incidence and mortality in the Pacific Region

Author

J Obel, Suzanne M. Garland, Damian G Hoy, Susanne K. Kjaer, Yvan Souares, W Baravilala, and Adam Roth

Subjects
Adult, Cancer Research, medicine.medical_specialty, Epidemiology, Uterine Cervical Neoplasms, HPV vaccines, Pacific Islands, Risk Assessment, Age Distribution, Genotype, medicine, Humans, Human papillomavirus, Developing Countries, Aged, Gynecology, Cervical cancer, business.industry, Incidence, Papillomavirus Infections, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Survival Analysis, Systematic review, Standardized mortality ratio, Oncology, Female, business, Needs Assessment, Cervical cancer incidence, Demography
Abstract

This study provides the first systematic literature review of cervical cancer incidence and mortality as well as human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype prevalence among women with cervical cancer in the Pacific Island countries and territories. The cervical cancer burden in the Pacific Region is substantial, with age standardized incidence rates ranging from 8.2 to 50.7 and age standardized mortality rate from 2.7 to 23.9 per 100,000 women per year. The HPV genotype distribution suggests that 70-80% of these cancers could be preventable by the currently available bi- or quadrivalent HPV vaccines. There are only few comprehensive studies examining the epidemiology of cervical cancer in this region and no published data have hitherto described the current cervical cancer prevention initiatives in this region.

81. The back happy tap-stand

Author

Christopher Morgan, Michael J. Toole, Damian G Hoy, and Harry Beyer

Subjects
Environmental Engineering, business.industry, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, Developing country, Pain management, equipment and supplies, Low back pain, Water collection, Environmental protection, health services administration, Back pain, medicine, population characteristics, medicine.symptom, Rural area, business, Socioeconomics, China, human activities, health care economics and organizations, Water Science and Technology
Abstract

Low back pain is a significant problem in low-income countries. In a prevalence study in 19 villages in rural Tibet (China), 34.1% of people complained of low back pain at the time of the interview. The collection of water, an activity primarily conducted by women, was found to be one of the major risk factors. In response to the study, training in prevention and management of low back pain was conducted and a back happy tap-stand was designed and installed in more than 30 villages. The tap-stand has a high tap and waist-high bench, thereby reducing the need to bend the lower back when filling and lifting water containers. Many women rated the tap-stand as the most significant improvement to their lives in the previous three years. The back happy tap-stand eases women's burden when collecting water and has the potential to reduce the prevalence and associated disability of low back pain.

82. Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Author

Lim, Stephen S, Allen, Kate, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Dandona, Lalit, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fullman, Nancy, Gething, Peter W, Goldberg, Ellen M, Hay, Simon I, Holmberg, Mollie, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kutz, Michael J, Larson, Heidi J, Liang, Xiaofeng, Lopez, Alan D, Lozano, Rafael, McNellan, Claire R, Mokdad, Ali H, Mooney, Meghan D, Naghavi, Mohsen, Olsen, Helen E, Pigott, David M, Salomon, Joshua A, Vos, Theo, Wang, Haidong, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abraham, Biju, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Abyu, Gebre Yitayih, Achoki, Tom, Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Arnav, Agrawal, Anurag, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Kedir Yimam, Akanda, Ali Shafqat, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi F, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Uzma, Alasfoor, Deena, AlBuhairan, Fadia S, Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed, Aldridge, Robert William, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Ali, Raghib, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alkhateeb, Mohammad AB, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid A, Martin, Elena Alvarez, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amberbir, Alemayehu, Amegah, Adeladza Kofi, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Amrock, Stephen Marc, Andersen, Hjalte H, Anderson, Benjamin O, Anderson, Gregory M, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlov, Johan, Artaman, Al, Asayesh, Hamid, Asghar, Rana Jawad, Atique, Suleman, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur, Awasthi, Ashish, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Azzopardi, Peter, Bacha, Umar, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Barac, Aleksandra, Barber, Ryan, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barnighausen, Till, Barrero, Lope H, Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh, Basu, Sanjay, Bayou, Tigist Assefa, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Bejot, Yannick, Bell, Michelle L, Bello, Aminu K, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benzian, Habib, Berhane, Adugnaw, Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernal, Oscar Alberto, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhatt, Samir, Biadgilign, Sibhatu, Bienhoff, Kelly A, Bikbov, Boris, Binagwaho, Agnes, Bisanzio, Donal, Bjertness, Espen, Blore, Jed, Bourne, Rupert RA, Brainin, Michael, Brauer, Michael, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas JK, Broday, David M, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Butt, Zahid A, Cahill, Leah E, Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo, Campuzano, Julio Cesar, Carabin, Helene, Cardenas, Rosario, Carrero, Juan Jesus, Carter, Austin, Casey, Daniel, Caso, Valeria, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline, Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Cavalleri, Fiorella, Cecilio, Pedro, Chang, Hsing-Yi, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J, Che, Xuan, Chen, Alan Zian, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chibalabala, Mirriam, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Cirillo, Massimo, Coates, Matthew M, Coggeshall, Megan, Cohen, Aaron J, Cooke, Graham S, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cowie, Benjamin C, Crump, John A, Damtew, Solomon Abrha, Dandona, Rakhi, Dargan, Paul I, das Neves, Jose, Davis, Adrian C, Davletov, Kairat, de Castro, E Filipa, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Gobbo, Liana C, Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Jarlais, Don C Des, Deshpande, Aniruddha, Deveber, Gabrielle A, Dey, Subhojit, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dhillon, Preet K, Ding, Eric L, Dorsey, E Ray, Doyle, Kerrie E, Driscoll, Tim R, Duan, Leilei, Dubey, Manisha, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Erskine, Holly E, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Fahimi, Saman, Farid, Talha A, Sofia e Sa Farinha, Carla, Faro, Andre, Farvid, Maryam S, Farzadfar, Farshad, Feigin, Valery L, Mendonca Felicio, Manuela, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Jefferson G, Fernandes, Joao C, Ferrari, Alize J, Fischer, Florian, Fitchett, Joseph RA, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle, Fowkes, F Gerry R, Franca, Elisabeth Barboza, Franklin, Richard C, Fraser, Maya, Friedman, Joseph, Frostad, Joseph, Furst, Thomas, Gabbe, Belinda, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Gebre, Teshome, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay, Gebru, Alemseged Aregay, Gessner, Bradford D, Gillum, Richard F, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Giroud, Maurice, Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo, Giussani, Giorgia, Godwin, William, Gona, Philimon, Goodridge, Amador, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Graetz, Nicholas, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Griswold, Max, Gugnani, Harish, Guo, Yuming, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Vipin, Gutierrez, Reyna A, Gyawali, Bishal, Haagsma, Juanita A, Haakenstad, Annie, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Haile, Demewoz, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Halasa, Yara A, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hamidi, Samer, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz, Hoek, Hans W, Horino, Masako, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Htet, Aung Soe, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, Hsiang, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Idrisov, Bulat T, Inoue, Manami, Islami, Farhad, Jacobs, Troy A, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B, James, Peter, Jansen, Henrica AFM, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayaraman, Sudha P, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jee, Sun Ha, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Ying, Jibat, Tariku, Jin, Ye, Jonas, Jost B, Kabir, Zubair, Kalkonde, Yogeshwar, Kamal, Ritul, Kan, Haidong, Kandel, Amit, Karch, Andre, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Karimkhani, Chante, Karunapema, Palitha, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kayibanda, Jeanne Francoise, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemmer, Laura, Kemp, Andrew Haddon, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khan, Abdur Rahman, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khang, Young-Ho, Khoja, Tawfi K Ahmed Muthafer, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Cho-Il, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kissoon, Niranjan, Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke D, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolte, Dhaval, Kosen, Soewarta, Kotsakis, Georgios A, Koul, Parvaiz A, Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael, Krueger, Hans, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, G Anil, Kwan, Gene F, Kyu, Hmwe H, Lal, Aparna, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Langan, Sinead M, Larsson, Anders, Laryea, Dennis Odai, Latif, Asma Abdul, Leasher, Janet L, Leigh, James, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Janni, Leung, Ricky, Levi, Miriam, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Lind, Margaret, Linn, Shai, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Patrick Y, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Lo, Loon-Tzian, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lucas, Robyn M, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy, Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos, Mahdavi, Mahdi, Majdan, Marek, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Mapoma, Chabila C, Margolis, David Joel, Martin, Randall V, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Masiye, Felix, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Massano, Joao, Matzopoulos, Richard, Mayosi, Bongani M, McGrath, John J, Mckee, Martin, Meaney, Peter A, Mehari, Alem, Mekonnen, Alemayehu B, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memiah, Peter, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensink, Gert BM, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J, Mesfin, Yonatan Moges, Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary, Micha, Renata, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mirarefi, Mojde, Misganaw, Awoke, Mitchell, Philip B, Mock, Charles N, Mohammadi, Alireza, Mohammed, Shafi U, Monasta, Lorenzo, De la Cruz Monis, Jonathan, Montanez Hernandez, Julio Cesar, Montico, Marcella, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Morawska, Lidia, Mori, Rintaro, Mueller, Ulrich O, Murdoch, Michele E, Murimira, Brighton, Murray, Joseph, Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Murthy, Srinivas, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Nachega, Jean B, Nagel, Gabriele, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nangia, Vinay, Neal, Bruce, Nejjari, Chakib, Newton, Charles R, Newton, John N, Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak, Nguhiu, Peter, Nguyen, Grant, Nguyen, Quyen Le, Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Pete, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie, Nolte, Sandra, Nomura, Marika, Norheim, Ole F, Norrving, Bo, Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Olivares, Pedro R, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Opio, John Nelson, Oren, Eyal, Ortiz, Alberto, Osborne, Richard H, Ota, Erika, Owolabi, Mayowa O, Mahesh, PA, Park, Eun-Kee, Park, Hye-Youn, Parry, Charles D, Parsaeian, Mahboubeh, Patel, Tejas, Patel, Vikram, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Patil, Snehal T, Patten, Scott B, Patton, George C, Paudel, Deepak, Pedro, Joao Mario, Pereira, David M, Perico, Norberto, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael Robert, Piel, Frederic B, Pillay, Julian David, Pinho, Christine, Pishgar, Farhad, Polinder, Suzanne, Poulton, Richie G, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qorbani, Mostafa, Rabiee, Rynaz HS, Radfar, Amir, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rajsic, Sasa, Raju, Murugesan, Ram, Usha, Rana, Saleem M, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Ranganathan, Kavitha, Rao, Puja C, Refaat, Amany H, Reitsma, Marissa B, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Resnikoff, Serge, Ribeiro, Antonio L, Rios Blancas, Maria Jesus, Roba, Hirbo Shore, Roberts, Bayard, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Roy, Ambuj, Roy, Nobhojit, Sackey, Ben Benasco, Sagar, Rajesh, Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad, Sanabria, Juan R, Santos, Joao Vasco, Santomauro, Damian F, Santos, Itamar S, Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo, Sartorius, Benn, Satpathy, Maheswar, Savic, Miloje, Sawhney, Monika, Sawyer, Susan M, Schmidhuber, Josef, Schmidt, Maria Ines, Schneider, Ione JC, Schutte, Aletta E, Schwebel, David C, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Shackelford, Katya, Shaheen, Amira, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Levy, Teresa Shamah, Sharma, Rajesh, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shen, Jiabin, Sheth, Kevin N, Shey, Muki, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shigematsu, Mika, Shin, Min-Jeong, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silpakit, Naris, Santos Silva, Diego Augusto, Silverberg, Jonathan I, Simard, Edgar P, Sindi, Shireen, Singh, Abhishek, Singh, Gitanjali M, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Om Prakash, Singh, Prashant Kumar, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sligar, Amber, Soneji, Samir, Soreide, Kjetil, Sorensen, Reed JD, Soriano, Joan B, Soshnikov, Sergey, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stahl, Hans-Christian, Stanaway, Jeff rey D, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Steckling, Nadine, Steel, Nicholas, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Caitlyn, Stockl, Heidi, Stranges, Saverio, Strong, Mark, Sun, Jiandong, Sunguya, Bruno F, Sur, Patrick, Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L, Szoeke, Cassandra EI, Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tarawneh, Mohammed Rasoul, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taye, Bineyam, Taylor, Hugh R, Tedla, Bemnet Amare, Tefera, Worku, Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw, Tekle, Dejen Yemane, Shifa, Girma Temam, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Tessema, Gizachew Assefa, Thakur, JS, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Thrift, Amanda G, Thurston, George D, Tillmann, Taavi, Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan, Tonelli, Marcello, Topor-Madry, Roman, Topouzis, Fotis, Tran, Bach Xuan, Truelsen, Thomas, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Tura, Abera Kenay, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Tyrovolas, Stefanos, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Uneke, Chigozie Jesse, Uthman, Olalekan A, van Donkelaar, Aaron, Varakin, Yuri Y, Vasankari, Tommi, Nogales Vasconcelos, Ana Maria, Veerman, J Lennert, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Verma, Raj Kumar, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Volkow, Patricia, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wagner, Gregory R, Wallin, Mitchell T, Wang, Linhong, Wanga, Valentine, Watkins, David A, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Weiss, Daniel J, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wilkinson, James D, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Wolfe, Charles DA, Wolfe, Ingrid, Won, Sungho, Woolf, Anthony D, Workie, Shimelash Bitew, Wubshet, Mamo, Xu, Gelin, Yadav, Ajit Kumar, Yakob, Bereket, Yalew, Ayalnesh Zemene, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaseri, Mehdi, Ye, Pengpeng, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos, Zapata, Tomas, Zegeye, Elias Asfaw, Zhao, Yi, Zhou, Maigeng, Zodpey, Sanjay, Zonies, David, Murray, Christopher JL, Collaborators, GBD 2015 SDG, Stephen S., Lim, Kate, Allen, Zulfi qar A., Bhutta, Lalit, Dandona, Mohammad H., Forouzanfar, Nancy, Fullman, Peter W., Gething, Ellen M., Goldberg, Simon I., Hay, Mollie, Holmberg, Yohannes, Kinfu, Michael J., Kutz, Heidi J., Larson, Xiaofeng, Liang, Alan D., Lopez, Rafael, Lozano, Claire R., Mcnellan, Ali H., Mokdad, Meghan D., Mooney, Mohsen, Naghavi, Helen E., Olsen, David M., Pigott, Joshua A., Salomon, Theo, Vo, Haidong, Wang, Amanuel Alemu, Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen, Abate, Cristiana, Abbafati, Kaja M., Abba, Foad Abd, Allah, Abdishakur M., Abdulle, Biju, Abraham, Ibrahim, Abubakar, Laith J., Abu Raddad, Niveen M. E., Abu Rmeileh, Gebre Yitayih, Abyu, Tom, Achoki, Akindele Olupelumi, Adebiyi, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adedeji, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afanvi, Ashkan, Afshin, Arnav, Agarwal, Anurag, Agrawal, Aliasghar Ahmad, Kiadaliri, Hamid, Ahmadieh, Kedir Yimam, Ahmed, Ali Shafqat, Akanda, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemi, Tomi F., Akinyemiju, Nadia, Akseer, Ziyad Al, Aly, Khurshid, Alam, Uzma, Alam, Deena, Alasfoor, Fadia S., Albuhairan, Saleh Fahed, Aldhahri, Robert William, Aldridge, Zewdie Aderaw, Alemu, Raghib, Ali, Ala’A, Alkerwi, Mohammad AB, Alkhateeb, François, Alla, Peter, Allebeck, Christine, Allen, Rajaa Al, Raddadi, Khalid A., Altirkawi, Elena Alvarez, Martin, Nelson Alvis, Guzman, Azmeraw T., Amare, Alemayehu, Amberbir, Adeladza Kofi, Amegah, Heresh, Amini, Walid, Ammar, Stephen Marc, Amrock, Hjalte H., Andersen, Benjamin O., Anderson, Gregory M., Anderson, Carl Abelardo T., Antonio, Palwasha, Anwari, Johan, Ärnlöv, Al, Artaman, Hamid, Asayesh, Rana Jawad, Asghar, Suleman, Atique, Euripide Frinel G., Arthur Avokpaho, Ashish, Awasthi, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Quintanilla, Peter, Azzopardi, Umar, Bacha, Alaa, Badawi, Kalpana, Balakrishnan, Amitava, Banerjee, Aleksandra, Barac, Ryan, Barber, Suzanne L., Barker Collo, Till, Bärnighausen, Lope H., Barrero, Tonatiuh Barrientos, Gutierrez, Sanjay, Basu, Tigist Assefa, Bayou, Shahrzad Bazargan, Hejazi, Justin, Beardsley, Neeraj, Bedi, Ettore, Beghi, Yannick, Béjot, Michelle L., Bell, Aminu K., Bello, Derrick A., Bennett, Isabela M., Bensenor, Habib, Benzian, Adugnaw, Berhane, Eduardo, Bernabé, Oscar Alberto, Bernal, Balem Demtsu, Betsu, Addisu Shunu, Beyene, Neeraj, Bhala, Samir, Bhatt, Sibhatu, Biadgilign, Kelly A., Bienhoff, Boris, Bikbov, Agnes, Binagwaho, Donal, Bisanzio, Espen, Bjertne, Jed, Blore, Rupert R. A., Bourne, Michael, Brainin, Michael, Brauer, Alexandra, Brazinova, Nicholas J. K., Breitborde, David M., Broday, Traolach S., Brugha, Rachelle, Buchbinder, Zahid A., Butt, Leah E., Cahill, Ismael Ricardo Campos, Nonato, Julio Cesar, Campuzano, Hélène, Carabin, Rosario, Cárdena, Juan Jesus, Carrero, Austin, Carter, Daniel, Casey, Valeria, Caso, Carlos A., Castañeda Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo, Riva, Ferrán Catalá, López, Fiorella, Cavalleri, Pedro, Cecílio, Hsing Yi, Chang, Jung Chen, Chang, Fiona J., Charlson, Xuan, Che, Alan Zian, Chen, Peggy Pei Chia, Chiang, Mirriam, Chibalabala, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chisumpa, Jee Young Jasmine, Choi, Rajiv, Chowdhury, Hanne, Christensen, Liliana G., Ciobanu, Cirillo, Massimo, Matthew M., Coate, Megan, Coggeshall, Aaron J., Cohen, Graham S., Cooke, Cyrus, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Benjamin C., Cowie, John A., Crump, Solomon Abrha, Damtew, Rakhi, Dandona, Paul I., Dargan, José das, Neve, Adrian C., Davi, Kairat, Davletov, E., Filipa de Castro, Diego De, Leo, Louisa, Degenhardt, Liana C., Del Gobbo, Kebede, Deribe, Sarah, Derrett, Don C., Des Jarlai, Aniruddha, Deshpande, Gabrielle A., Deveber, Subhojit, Dey, Samath D., Dharmaratne, Preet K., Dhillon, Eric L., Ding, E., Ray Dorsey, Kerrie E., Doyle, Tim R., Driscoll, Leilei, Duan, Manisha, Dubey, Bruce Bartholow, Duncan, Hedyeh, Ebrahimi, Aman Yesuf, Endrie, Sergey Petrovich, Ermakov, Holly E., Erskine, Babak, Eshrati, Alireza, Esteghamati, Saman, Fahimi, Talha A., Farid, Carla Sofi a. e., Sa Farinha, André, Faro, Maryam S., Farvid, Farshad, Farzadfar, Valery L., Feigin, Manuela Mendonca, Felicio, Seyed Mohammad, Fereshtehnejad, Jefferson G., Fernande, Joao C., Fernande, Alize J., Ferrari, Florian, Fischer, Joseph R. A., Fitchett, Christina, Fitzmaurice, Nataliya, Foigt, Kyle, Foreman, F. Gerry R., Fowke, Elisabeth Barboza, Franca, Richard C., Franklin, Maya, Fraser, Joseph, Friedman, Joseph, Frostad, Thomas, Fürst, Belinda, Gabbe, Alberto L., Garcia Basteiro, Teshome, Gebre, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay, Gebremedhin, Alemseged Aregay, Gebru, Bradford D., Gessner, Richard F., Gillum, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Ginawi, Ababi Zergaw, Giref, Maurice, Giroud, Melkamu Dedefo, Gishu, William, Godwin, Philimon, Gona, Amador, Goodridge, Sameer Vali, Gopalani, Carolyn C., Gotay, Atsushi, Goto, Hebe N., Gouda, Nicholas, Graetz, Karen Fern, Greenwell, Max, Griswold, Yuming, Guo, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Vipin, Gupta, Reyna A., Gutiérrez, Bishal, Gyawali, Juanita A., Haagsma, Annie, Haakenstad, Nima Hafezi, Nejad, Demewoz, Haile, Gessessew Bugssa, Hailu, Yara A., Halasa, Randah Ribhi, Hamadeh, Samer, Hamidi, Mouhanad, Hammami, Graeme J., Hankey, Hilda L., Harb, Josep Maria, Haro, Mohammad Sadegh, Hassanvand, Rasmus, Havmoeller, Ileana Beatriz Heredia, Pi, Hans W., Hoek, Masako, Horino, Nobuyuki, Horita, H., Dean Hosgood, Damian G., Hoy, Aung Soe, Htet, Guoqing, Hu, Hsiang, Huang, Kim Moesgaard, Iburg, Bulat T., Idrisov, Manami, Inoue, Farhad, Islami, Troy A., Jacob, Kathryn H., Jacobsen, Nader, Jahanmehr, Mihajlo B., Jakovljevic, Peter, Jame, Henrica A. F. M., Jansen, Mehdi, Javanbakht, Achala Upendra, Jayatilleke, Sun Ha, Jee, Panniyammakal, Jeemon, Vivekanand, Jha, Ying, Jiang, Tariku, Jibat, Ye, Jin, Jost B., Jona, Zubair, Kabir, Yogeshwar, Kalkonde, Ritul, Kamal, Haidong, Kan, Amit, Kandel, André, Karch, Corine Kakizi, Karema, Chante, Karimkhani, Palitha, Karunapema, Amir, Kasaeian, Nicholas J., Kassebaum, Anil, Kaul, Norito, Kawakami, Jeanne Françoise, Kayibanda, Peter Njenga, Keiyoro, Laura, Kemmer, Andrew Haddon, Kemp, Andre Pascal, Kengne, Andre, Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair, Kesavachandran, Yousef Saleh, Khader, Abdur Rahman, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khan, Young Ho, Khang, Tawfi k., Ahmed Muthafer Khoja, Ardeshir, Khosravi, Jagdish, Khubchandani, Christian, Kieling, Cho il, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yun Jin, Kim, Ruth W., Kimokoti, Niranjan, Kissoon, Miia, Kivipelto, Luke D., Knibb, Yoshihiro, Kokubo, Dhaval, Kolte, Soewarta, Kosen, Georgios A., Kotsaki, Parvaiz A., Koul, Ai, Koyanagi, Michael, Kravchenko, Hans, Krueger, Barthelemy Kuate, Defo, Ricardo S., Kuchenbecker, Ernst J., Kuiper, Xie Rachel, Kulikoff, Veena S., Kulkarni, G., Anil Kumar, Gene F., Kwan, Hmwe H., Kyu, Aparna, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lal, Ratilal, Lalloo, Hilton, Lam, Qing, Lan, Sinead M., Langan, Anders, Larsson, Dennis Odai, Laryea, Asma Abdul, Latif, Janet L., Leasher, James, Leigh, Mall, Leinsalu, Janni, Leung, Ricky, Leung, Miriam, Levi, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Li, Margaret, Lind, Shai, Linn, Steven E., Lipshultz, Patrick Y., Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Liu, Belinda K., Lloyd, Loon Tzian, Lo, Giancarlo, Logroscino, Paulo A., Lotufo, Robyn M., Luca, Raimundas, Luneviciu, Mohammed Magdy Abd El, Razek, Carlos Magis, Rodriguez, Mahdi, Mahdavi, Marek, Majdan, Azeem, Majeed, Reza, Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho, Malta, Chabila C., Mapoma, David Joel, Margoli, Randall V., Martin, Jose Martinez, Raga, Felix, Masiye, Amanda J., Mason Jone, João, Massano, Richard, Matzopoulo, Bongani M., Mayosi, John J., Mcgrath, Martin, Mckee, Peter A., Meaney, Alem, Mehari, Alemayehu B., Mekonnen, Yohannes Adama, Melaku, Peter, Memiah, Ziad A., Memish, Walter, Mendoza, Gert B. M., Mensink, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Meretoja, Yonatan Moges Mesfi, N, Francis Apolinary, Mhimbira, Renata, Micha, Ted R., Miller, Edward J., Mill, Mojde Mirarefi, N, Awoke, Misganaw, Philip B., Mitchell, Charles N., Mock, Alireza, Mohammadi, Shafi u., Mohammed, Lorenzo, Monasta, Jonathan de la Cruz, Moni, Julio Cesar Montañez, Hernandez, Marcella, Montico, Maziar Moradi, Lakeh, Lidia, Morawska, Rintaro, Mori, Ulrich O., Mueller, Michele E., Murdoch, Brighton, Murimira, Joseph, Murray, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Murthy, Srinivas, Murthy, Kamarul Imran, Musa, Jean B., Nachega, Gabriele, Nagel, Kovin S., Naidoo, Luigi, Naldi, Vinay, Nangia, Bruce, Neal, Chakib, Nejjari, Charles R., Newton, John N., Newton, Frida Namnyak, Ngalesoni, Peter, Nguhiu, Grant, Nguyen, Quyen Le, Nguyen, Muhammad Imran, Nisar, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie, Pete, Sandra, Nolte, Marika, Nomura, Ole F., Norheim, Bo, Norrving, Carla Makhlouf, Obermeyer, Felix Akpojene, Ogbo, In Hwan, Oh, Olanrewaju, Oladimeji, Pedro R., Olivare, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Olusanya, John Nelson, Opio, Eyal, Oren, Alberto, Ortiz, Richard H., Osborne, Erika, Ota, Mayowa O., Owolabi, Mahesh, Pa, Eun Kee, Park, Hye Youn, Park, Charles D., Parry, Mahboubeh, Parsaeian, Tejas, Patel, Vikram, Patel, Angel J., Paternina Caicedo, Snehal T., Patil, Scott B., Patten, George C., Patton, Deepak, Paudel, João Mário, Pedro, David M., Pereira, Norberto, Perico, Konrad, Pesudov, Max, Petzold, Michael Robert, Phillip, Frédéric B., Piel, Julian David, Pillay, Christine, Pinho, Farhad, Pishgar, Suzanne, Polinder, Richie G., Poulton, Farshad, Pourmalek, Mostafa, Qorbani, Rynaz H. S., Rabiee, Amir, Radfar, Vafa Rahimi, Movaghar, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Rahman, Rajesh Kumar, Rai, Sasa, Rajsic, Murugesan, Raju, Usha, Ram, Saleem M., Rana, Chhabi Lal, Ranabhat, Kavitha, Ranganathan, Puja C., Rao, Amany H., Refaat, Marissa B., Reitsma, Giuseppe, Remuzzi, Serge, Resnikoff, Antonio L., Ribeiro, Maria Jesus Rios, Blanca, Hirbo Shore, Roba, Bayard, Robert, Alina, Rodriguez, David Rojas, Rueda, Luca, Ronfani, Gholamreza, Roshandel, Gregory A., Roth, Dietrich, Rothenbacher, Ambuj, Roy, Nobhojit, Roy, Ben Benasco, Sackey, Rajesh, Sagar, Muhammad Muhammad, Saleh, Juan R., Sanabria, Damian F., Santomauro, Itamar S., Santo, Rodrigo Sarmiento, Suarez, Benn, Sartoriu, Maheswar, Satpathy, Miloje, Savic, Monika, Sawhney, Susan M., Sawyer, Josef, Schmidhuber, Maria Inês, Schmidt, Ione J. C., Schneider, Aletta E., Schutte, David C., Schwebel, Soraya, Seedat, Sadaf G., Sepanlou, Edson E., Servan Mori, Katya, Shackelford, Amira, Shaheen, Masood Ali, Shaikh, Teresa Shamah, Levy, Rajesh, Sharma, Jun, She, Sara, Sheikhbahaei, Jiabin, Shen, Kevin N., Sheth, Muki, Shey, Peilin, Shi, Kenji, Shibuya, Mika, Shigematsu, Min Jeong, Shin, Rahman, Shiri, Kawkab, Shishani, Ivy, Shiue, Inga Dora, Sigfusdottir, Naris, Silpakit, Diego Augusto Santos, Silva, Jonathan I., Silverberg, Edgar P., Simard, Shireen, Sindi, Abhishek, Singh, Gitanjali M., Singh, Jasvinder A., Singh, Om Prakash, Singh, Prashant Kumar, Singh, Vegard, Skirbekk, Amber, Sligar, Samir, Soneji, Kjetil, Søreide, Reed J. D., Sorensen, Joan B., Soriano, Sergey, Soshnikov, Luciano A., Sposato, Chandrashekhar T., Sreeramareddy, Hans Christian, Stahl, Jeff rey D., Stanaway, Vasiliki, Stathopoulou, Nadine, Steckling, Nicholas, Steel, Dan J., Stein, Caitlyn, Steiner, Heidi, Stöckl, Saverio, Strange, Mark, Strong, Jiandong, Sun, Bruno F., Sunguya, Patrick, Sur, Soumya, Swaminathan, Bryan L., Syke, Cassandra E. I., Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés, Seisdedo, Karen M., Tabb, Roberto Tchio, Talongwa, Mohammed Rasoul, Tarawneh, Mohammad, Tavakkoli, Bineyam, Taye, Hugh R., Taylor, Bemnet Amare, Tedla, Worku, Tefera, Teketo Kassaw, Tegegne, Dejen Yemane, Tekle, Girma Temam, Shifa, Abdullah Sulieman, Terkawi, Gizachew Assefa, Tessema, J. S., Thakur, Alan J., Thomson, Andrew L., Thorne Lyman, Amanda G., Thrift, George D., Thurston, Taavi, Tillmann, Ruoyan Tobe, Gai, Marcello, Tonelli, Roman Topor, Madry, Fotis, Topouzi, Bach Xuan, Tran, Zacharie Tsala, Dimbuene, Abera Kenay, Tura, Emin Murat, Tuzcu, Stefanos, Tyrovola, Kingsley Nnanna, Ukwaja, Eduardo A., Undurraga, Chigozie Jesse, Uneke, Olalekan A., Uthman, Aaron van, Donkelaar, Yuri Y., Varakin, Tommi, Vasankari, Ana Maria Nogales, Vasconcelo, J., Lennert Veerman, Narayanaswamy, Venketasubramanian, Raj Kumar, Verma, Francesco S., Violante, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vlassov, Patricia, Volkow, Stein Emil, Vollset, Gregory R., Wagner, Mitchell T., Wallin, Linhong, Wang, Valentine, Wanga, David A., Watkin, Scott, Weichenthal, Elisabete, Weiderpa, Robert G., Weintraub, Daniel J., Wei, Andrea, Werdecker, Ronny, Westerman, Harvey A., Whiteford, James D., Wilkinson, Charles Shey, Wiysonge, Charles D. A., Wolfe, Ingrid, Wolfe, Sungho, Won, Anthony D., Woolf, Shimelash Bitew, Workie, Mamo, Wubshet, Gelin, Xu, Ajit Kumar, Yadav, Bereket, Yakob, Ayalnesh Zemene, Yalew, Lijing L., Yan, Yuichiro, Yano, Mehdi, Yaseri, Pengpeng, Ye, Paul, Yip, Naohiro, Yonemoto, Seok Jun, Yoon, Mustafa Z., Youni, Chuanhua, Yu, Zoubida, Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed, Zaki, Carlos Zambrana, Torrelio, Tomas, Zapata, Elias Asfaw, Zegeye, Yi, Zhao, Maigeng, Zhou, Sanjay, Zodpey, David, Zonie, Christopher J. L., Murray, Lim, Stephen S, Allen, Kate, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Dandona, Lalit, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fullman, Nancy, Gething, Peter W, Goldberg, Ellen M, Hay, Simon I, Holmberg, Mollie, Kinfu, Yohanne, Kutz, Michael J, Larson, Heidi J, Liang, Xiaofeng, Lopez, Alan D, Lozano, Rafael, Mcnellan, Claire R, Mokdad, Ali H, Mooney, Meghan D, Naghavi, Mohsen, Olsen, Helen E, Pigott, David M, Salomon, Joshua A, Vos, Theo, Wang, Haidong, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulle, Abdishakur M, Abraham, Biju, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E, Abyu, Gebre Yitayih, Achoki, Tom, Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Arnav, Agrawal, Anurag, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Kedir Yimam, Akanda, Ali Shafqat, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akinyemiju, Tomi F, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Uzma, 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Beghi, Ettore, Béjot, Yannick, Bell, Michelle L, Bello, Aminu K, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benzian, Habib, Berhane, Adugnaw, Bernabé, Eduardo, Bernal, Oscar Alberto, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhatt, Samir, Biadgilign, Sibhatu, Bienhoff, Kelly A, Bikbov, Bori, Binagwaho, Agne, Bisanzio, Donal, Bjertness, Espen, Blore, Jed, Bourne, Rupert R A, Brainin, Michael, Brauer, Michael, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Broday, David M, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Butt, Zahid A, Cahill, Leah E, Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo, Campuzano, Julio Cesar, Carabin, Hélène, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carrero, Juan Jesu, Carter, Austin, Casey, Daniel, Caso, Valeria, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cavalleri, Fiorella, Cecílio, Pedro, Chang, Hsing-Yi, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J, Che, Xuan, Chen, Alan Zian, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chibalabala, Mirriam, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Ciobanu, Liliana G, Coates, Matthew M, Coggeshall, Megan, Cohen, Aaron J, Cooke, Graham S, Cooper, Cyru, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cowie, Benjamin C, Crump, John A, Damtew, Solomon Abrha, Dandona, Rakhi, Dargan, Paul I, Neves, José da, Davis, Adrian C, Davletov, Kairat, de Castro, E Filipa, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Gobbo, Liana C, Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Des Jarlais, Don C, Deshpande, Aniruddha, Deveber, Gabrielle A, Dey, Subhojit, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dhillon, Preet K, Ding, Eric L, Dorsey, E Ray, Doyle, Kerrie E, Driscoll, Tim R, Duan, Leilei, Dubey, Manisha, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Erskine, Holly E, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Fahimi, Saman, Farid, Talha A, Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa, Faro, André, Farvid, Maryam S, Farzadfar, Farshad, Feigin, Valery L, Felicio, Manuela Mendonca, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Jefferson G, Fernandes, Joao C, Ferrari, Alize J, Fischer, Florian, Fitchett, Joseph R A, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle, Fowkes, F Gerry R, Franca, Elisabeth Barboza, Franklin, Richard C, Fraser, Maya, Friedman, Joseph, Frostad, Joseph, Fürst, Thoma, Gabbe, Belinda, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Gebre, Teshome, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay, Gebru, Alemseged Aregay, Gessner, Bradford D, Gillum, Richard F, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Giroud, Maurice, Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo, Godwin, William, Gona, Philimon, Goodridge, Amador, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Graetz, Nichola, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Griswold, Max, Guo, Yuming, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Vipin, Gutiérrez, Reyna A, Gyawali, Bishal, Haagsma, Juanita A, Haakenstad, Annie, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Haile, Demewoz, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Halasa, Yara A, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hamidi, Samer, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Havmoeller, Rasmu, Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz, Hoek, Hans W, Horino, Masako, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Htet, Aung Soe, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, Hsiang, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Idrisov, Bulat T, Inoue, Manami, Islami, Farhad, Jacobs, Troy A, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B, James, Peter, Jansen, Henrica A F M, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra, Jee, Sun Ha, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Ying, Jibat, Tariku, Jin, Ye, Jonas, Jost B, Kabir, Zubair, Kalkonde, Yogeshwar, Kamal, Ritul, Kan, Haidong, Kandel, Amit, Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Karimkhani, Chante, Karunapema, Palitha, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kayibanda, Jeanne Françoise, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kemmer, Laura, Kemp, Andrew Haddon, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khan, Abdur Rahman, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khang, Young-Ho, Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Cho-il, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kissoon, Niranjan, Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke D, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolte, Dhaval, Kosen, Soewarta, Kotsakis, Georgios A, Koul, Parvaiz A, Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael, Krueger, Han, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, G Anil, Kwan, Gene F, Kyu, Hmwe H, Lal, Aparna, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Langan, Sinead M, Larsson, Ander, Laryea, Dennis Odai, Latif, Asma Abdul, Leasher, Janet L, Leigh, Jame, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Janni, Leung, Ricky, Levi, Miriam, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Lind, Margaret, Linn, Shai, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Patrick Y, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Lo, Loon-Tzian, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, 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Subjects
Conservation of Natural Resources, spline regressions, Health Status, Global Health, Goal, Health Statu, Cost of Illness, Risk Factors, Universal Health Insurance, Quality-Adjusted Life Year, health-related SDG performance indicators, socio-demographic index, Health Status Indicators, Humans, Conservation of Natural Resource, Disabled Persons, Health Status Indicator, Medicine(all), Insurance, Health, Risk Factor, Medicine (all), Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Articles, Cost of Illne, Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, Disabled Person, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Universal Coverage, Goals, Human
Abstract

Summary Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8–61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2–86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4–24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0–10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7–13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1–8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2016

83. The Global Burden of Musculoskeletal Pain-Where to From Here?

Author

Blyth FM, Briggs AM, Schneider CH, Hoy DG, and March LM

Subjects
Disability Evaluation, Disabled Persons, Global Health, Humans, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Global Burden of Disease, Musculoskeletal Pain epidemiology
Abstract

To summarize the current understanding of the global burden of musculoskeletal pain-related conditions, consider the process of evidence generation and the steps to generate global pain estimates, identify key gaps in our understanding, and propose an agenda to address these gaps, we performed a narrative review. In the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), which broadened the scope of musculoskeletal conditions that were included over previous rounds, low back pain imposed the highest disability burden of all specific conditions assessed, and subsequent GBD reports further reinforce the size of this burden. Over the past decade, the GBD has produced compelling evidence of the leading contribution of musculoskeletal pain conditions to the global burden of disability, but this has not translated into global health policy initiatives. However, system- and service-level responses to the disease burden persist across high-, middle-, and low-income settings. There is a mismatch between the burden of musculoskeletal pain conditions and appropriate health policy response and planning internationally that can be addressed with an integrated research and policy agenda.

Published
2019
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