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Endovascular mechanical thrombectomy, combined with a tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA), is efficacious as a standard care for qualifying ischemic stroke patients. However, > 50% of thrombectomy patients still have poor outcomes. Manganese porphyrins, commonly known as mimics of superoxide dismutases, are potent redox-active catalytic compounds that decrease oxidative/nitrosative stress and in turn decrease inflammatory responses, mitigating therefore the secondary injury of the ischemic brain. This study investigates the effect of intracarotid MnTnBuOE-2-PyP 5+ (BMX-001) administration on long-term, 28-day post-stroke recovery in a clinically relevant setting. The 90 min of transient middle cerebral artery occlusion was performed in young, aged, male, female, and spontaneous hypertension rats. All physiological parameters, including blood pressure, blood gas, glucose, and temperature, were well controlled during ischemia. Either BMX-001 or a vehicle solution was infused through the carotid artery immediately after the removal of filament, mimicking endovascular thrombectomy, and was followed by 7 days of subcutaneous injection. Neurologic deficits and infarct volume were assessed at 28 days in a blinded manner. The effects of BMX-001 on the carotid arterial wall and blood-brain barrier permeability and its interaction with t-PA were assessed in normal rats. There were no intra-group differences in physiological variables. BMX-001-treated stroke rats regained body weight earlier, performed better in behavioral tests, and had smaller brain infarct size compared to the vehicle-treated group. No vascular wall damage and blood-brain barrier permeability changes were detected after the BMX-001 infusion. There was no drug interaction between BMX-001 and t-PA. Intracarotid BMX-001 infusion was safe, and it significantly improved stroke outcomes in rats. These findings indicate that BMX-001 is a candidate drug as an adjunct treatment for thrombectomy procedure to further improve the neurologic outcomes of thrombectomy patients. This study warrants further clinical investigation of BMX-001 as a new stroke therapy.

While variation in emphysema severity between patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is well-recognized, clinically applicable definitions of the emphysema-predominant disease (EPD) and non-emphysema-predominant disease (NEPD) subtypes have not been established. To study the clinical relevance of the EPD and NEPD subtypes, we tested the association of these subtypes with prospective decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and mortality among 3,427 subjects with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) spirometric grade 2-4 COPD at baseline in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) Study, an ongoing national multicenter study that started in 2007. NEPD was defined as airflow obstruction with less than 5% computed tomography (CT) quantitative densitometric emphysema at -950 Hounsfield units, and EPD was defined as airflow obstruction with 10% or greater CT emphysema. Mixed-effects models for FEV1 demonstrated larger average annual FEV1 loss in EPD subjects than in NEPD subjects (-10.2 mL/year; P < 0.001), and subtype-specific associations with FEV1 decline were identified. Cox proportional hazards models showed higher risk of mortality among EPD patients versus NEPD patients (hazard ratio = 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.34, 1.60; P < 0.001). To determine whether the NEPD/EPD dichotomy is captured by previously described COPDGene subtypes, we used logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to predict NEPD/EPD membership using these previous subtype definitions. The analysis generally showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the ROC curve greater than 0.9. The NEPD and EPD COPD subtypes capture important aspects of COPD heterogeneity and are associated with different rates of disease progression and mortality., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: COPD diagnosis is tightly linked to the fixed-ratio spirometry criteria of FEV 1 /FVC < 0.7. African-Americans are less often diagnosed with COPD., Objective: Compare COPD diagnosis by fixed-ratio with findings and outcomes by race., Design: Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) (2007-present), cross-sectional comparing non-Hispanic white (NHW) and African-American (AA) participants for COPD diagnosis, manifestations, and outcomes., Setting: Multicenter, longitudinal US cohort study., Participants: Current or former smokers with ≥ 10-pack-year smoking history enrolled at 21 clinical centers including over-sampling of participants with known COPD and AA. Exclusions were pre-existing non-COPD lung disease, except for a history of asthma., Measurements: Subject diagnosis by conventional criteria. Mortality, imaging, respiratory symptoms, function, and socioeconomic characteristics, including area deprivation index (ADI). Matched analysis (age, sex, and smoking status) of AA vs. NHW within participants without diagnosed COPD (GOLD 0; FEV 1  ≥ 80% predicted and FEV 1 /FVC ≥ 0.7)., Results: Using the fixed ratio, 70% of AA (n = 3366) were classified as non-COPD, versus 49% of NHW (n = 6766). AA smokers were younger (55 vs. 62 years), more often current smoking (80% vs. 39%), with fewer pack-years but similar 12-year mortality. Density distribution plots for FEV 1 and FVC raw spirometry values showed disproportionate reductions in FVC relative to FEV 1 in AA that systematically led to higher ratios. The matched analysis demonstrated GOLD 0 AA had greater symptoms, worse D L CO, spirometry, BODE scores (1.03 vs 0.54, p < 0.0001), and greater deprivation than NHW., Limitations: Lack of an alternative diagnostic metric for comparison., Conclusions: The fixed-ratio spirometric criteria for COPD underdiagnosed potential COPD in AA participants when compared to broader diagnostic criteria. Disproportionate reductions in FVC relative to FEV 1 leading to higher FEV 1 /FVC were identified in these participants and associated with deprivation. Broader diagnostic criteria for COPD are needed to identify the disease across all populations., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society of General Internal Medicine.)

Rationale: Cigarette smoking contributes to the risk of death through different mechanisms. Objectives: To determine how causes of and clinical features associated with death vary in tobacco cigarette users by lung function impairment. Methods: We stratified current and former tobacco cigarette users enrolled in Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) into normal spirometry, PRISm (Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-2 COPD, and GOLD 3-4 COPD. Deaths were identified via longitudinal follow-up and Social Security Death Index search. Causes of death were adjudicated after a review of death certificates, medical records, and next-of-kin interviews. We tested associations between baseline clinical variables and all-cause mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Measurements and Main Results: Over a 10.1-year median follow-up, 2,200 deaths occurred among 10,132 participants (age 59.5 ± 9.0 yr; 46.6% women). Death from cardiovascular disease was most frequent in PRISm (31% of deaths). Lung cancer deaths were most frequent in GOLD 1-2 (18% of deaths vs. 9-11% in other groups). Respiratory deaths outpaced competing causes of death in GOLD 3-4, particularly when BODE index ⩾7. St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score ⩾25 was associated with higher mortality in all groups: Hazard ratio (HR), 1.48 (1.20-1.84) normal spirometry; HR, 1.40 (1.05-1.87) PRISm; HR, 1.80 (1.49-2.17) GOLD 1-2; HR, 1.65 (1.26-2.17) GOLD 3-4. History of respiratory exacerbations was associated with higher mortality in GOLD 1-2 and GOLD 3-4, quantitative emphysema in GOLD 1-2, and airway wall thickness in PRISm and GOLD 3-4. Conclusions: Leading causes of death vary by lung function impairment in tobacco cigarette users. Worse respiratory-related quality of life is associated with all-cause mortality regardless of lung function.

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a complex disease characterized by airway obstruction and accelerated lung function decline. Our understanding of systemic protein biomarkers associated with COPD remains incomplete. Objectives: To determine what proteins and pathways are associated with impaired pulmonary function in a diverse population. Methods: We studied 6,722 participants across six cohort studies with both aptamer-based proteomic and spirometry data (4,566 predominantly White participants in a discovery analysis and 2,156 African American cohort participants in a validation). In linear regression models, we examined protein associations with baseline forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ) and FEV 1 /forced vital capacity (FVC). In linear mixed effects models, we investigated the associations of baseline protein levels with rate of FEV 1 decline (ml/yr) in 2,777 participants with up to 7 years of follow-up spirometry. Results: We identified 254 proteins associated with FEV 1 in our discovery analyses, with 80 proteins validated in the Jackson Heart Study. Novel validated protein associations include kallistatin serine protease inhibitor, growth differentiation factor 2, and tumor necrosis factor-like weak inducer of apoptosis (discovery β = 0.0561, Q  = 4.05 × 10 -10 ; β  = 0.0421, Q  = 1.12 × 10 -3 ; and β = 0.0358, Q  = 1.67 × 10 -3 , respectively). In longitudinal analyses within cohorts with follow-up spirometry, we identified 15 proteins associated with FEV 1 decline ( Q  < 0.05), including elafin leukocyte elastase inhibitor and mucin-associated TFF2 (trefoil factor 2; β = -4.3 ml/yr, Q  = 0.049; β = -6.1 ml/yr, Q  = 0.032, respectively). Pathways and processes highlighted by our study include aberrant extracellular matrix remodeling, enhanced innate immune response, dysregulation of angiogenesis, and coagulation. Conclusions: In this study, we identify and validate novel biomarkers and pathways associated with lung function traits in a racially diverse population. In addition, we identify novel protein markers associated with FEV 1 decline. Several protein findings are supported by previously reported genetic signals, highlighting the plausibility of certain biologic pathways. These novel proteins might represent markers for risk stratification, as well as novel molecular targets for treatment of COPD.

Genetic studies have identified numerous regions associated with plasma fibrinogen levels in Europeans, yet missing heritability and limited inclusion of non-Europeans necessitates further studies with improved power and sensitivity. Compared with array-based genotyping, whole genome sequencing (WGS) data provides better coverage of the genome and better representation of non-European variants. To better understand the genetic landscape regulating plasma fibrinogen levels, we meta-analyzed WGS data from the NHLBI's Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program (n=32,572), with array-based genotype data from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium (n=131,340) imputed to the TOPMed or Haplotype Reference Consortium panel. We identified 18 loci that have not been identified in prior genetic studies of fibrinogen. Of these, four are driven by common variants of small effect with reported MAF at least 10% higher in African populations. Three ( SERPINA1, ZFP36L2 , and TLR10) signals contain predicted deleterious missense variants. Two loci, SOCS3 and HPN , each harbor two conditionally distinct, non-coding variants. The gene region encoding the protein chain subunits ( FGG;FGB;FGA ), contains 7 distinct signals, including one novel signal driven by rs28577061, a variant common (MAF=0.180) in African reference panels but extremely rare (MAF=0.008) in Europeans. Through phenome-wide association studies in the VA Million Veteran Program, we found associations between fibrinogen polygenic risk scores and thrombotic and inflammatory disease phenotypes, including an association with gout. Our findings demonstrate the utility of WGS to augment genetic discovery in diverse populations and offer new insights for putative mechanisms of fibrinogen regulation., Key Points: Largest and most diverse genetic study of plasma fibrinogen identifies 54 regions (18 novel), housing 69 conditionally distinct variants (20 novel).Sufficient power achieved to identify signal driven by African population variant.Links to (1) liver enzyme, blood cell and lipid genetic signals, (2) liver regulatory elements, and (3) thrombotic and inflammatory disease.

Background Long-term studies of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can evaluate emphysema progression. Adjustment for differences in equipment and scanning protocols of individual CT examinations have not been studied extensively. Purpose To evaluate emphysema progression in current and former smokers in the COPDGene cohort over three imaging points obtained at 5-year intervals accounting for individual CT parameters. Materials and Methods Current and former cigarette smokers enrolled between 2008 and 2011 from the COPDGene study were prospectively followed for 10 years between 2008 and 2020. Extent of emphysema as adjusted lung density (ALD) from quantitative CT was measured at baseline and at 5- and 10-year follow-up. Linear mixed models adjusted for CT technical characteristics were constructed to evaluate emphysema progression. Mean annual changes in ALD over consecutive 5-year study periods were estimated by smoking status and baseline emphysema. Results Of 8431 participants at baseline (mean age, 60 years ± 9 [SD]; 3905 female participants), 4913 were at 5-year follow-up and 1544 participants were at 10-year follow-up. There were 4134 (49%) participants who were current smokers, and 4449 (53%) participants had more than trace emphysema at baseline. Current smokers with more than trace emphysema showed the largest decline in ALD, with mean annual decreases of 1.4 g/L (95% CI: 1.2, 1.5) in the first 5 years and 0.9 g/L (95% CI: 0.7, 1.2) in the second 5 years. Accounting for CT noise, field of view, and scanner model improved model fit for estimation of emphysema progression ( P < .001 by likelihood ratio test). Conclusion Evaluation at CT of emphysema progression in the COPDGene study showed that, during the span of 10 years, participants with pre-existing emphysema who continued smoking had the largest decline in ALD. Adjusting for CT equipment and protocol factors improved these longitudinal estimates. Clinical trial registration no. NCT00608764 © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article. See the editorial by Parraga and Kirby in this issue.

Introduction: Recent evidence suggests a high prevalence of undiagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). These individuals are at risk of exacerbations and delayed treatment. We analyzed an at-risk population for the prevalence of abnormal spirometry to provide clarity into who should undergo early spirometry., Methods: We analyzed data from the COPDGene study. Participants with ≥10 pack-years of smoking were included. Individuals with self-reported or physician-diagnosed COPD, asthma, chronic bronchitis, emphysema and/or were on inhalers were excluded. Parsimonious multivariable logistic regression models identified factors associated with abnormal spirometry, defined as either airflow obstruction (AFO) or preserved ratio impaired spirometry. Variables were selected for the final model using a stepwise backward variable elimination process which minimized Akaike information criterion (AIC). Similarly, during the 5-year follow-up period, we assessed factors associated with incident diagnosis of COPD., Results: Of 5055 individuals, 1064 (21%) had undiagnosed AFO. Age, pack-years, current smoking and a history of acute bronchitis were associated with AFO while body mass index, female sex, and Black race were inversely associated. Among 2800 participants with 5-year follow-up, 532 (19%) had an incident diagnosis of COPD. Associated risk factors included mMRC ≥2, chronic productive cough, respiratory exacerbations during the follow-up period, and abnormal spirometry. Age was inversely associated., Conclusions: The prevalence of undiagnosed COPD is high in at-risk populations. We found multiple factors associated with undiagnosed COPD and incident diagnosis of COPD at follow up. These results can be used to identify those at risk for undiagnosed COPD to facilitate earlier diagnosis and treatment., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest Alejandro Comellas has consulted for GSK and VIDA Diagnostics. Arianne K. Baldomero is supported by the NIHNational Center for Advancing Translational Sciences Grants KL2TR002492 and UL1TR002494. Jeffrey L. Curtis is supported by R01 HL144718, R01 HL144849, U01 HL137880, and I01 CX001969 and has consulted for AstraZeneca PLC, Novartis AG, and CSL Behring LLC. Richard Casaburi has received consultant fees or honoraria from Boehringer Ingelheim, Glaxo Smith Kline and Inogen. Victor Kim has consulted for Boehringer Ingelheim, Gala Therapeutics and AstraZeneca and received personal fees from American Board of Internal Medicine. Alejandro A. Diaz is supported by NIH grants R01-HL133137, R01-HL14986; has reported speaker fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, outside the submitted work. Edwin K. Silverman has received grant support from GlaxoSmithKline and Bayer. Surya P. Bhatt is supported by NIH Grants R01HL151421, R21EB027891, and UG3HL155806 and he has served on advisory boards for Boehringer Ingelheim and Sanofi/Regeneron. Spyridon Fortis has received grants from American Thoracic Society and Fisher &Paykel and served as a consultant for Genentech. The rest of the authors have no relevant conflicts to disclose., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The association between genetic variants on the X chromosome to risk of COPD has not been fully explored. We hypothesize that the X chromosome harbors variants important in determining risk of COPD related phenotypes and may drive sex differences in COPD manifestations., Methods: Using X chromosome data from three COPD-enriched cohorts of adult smokers, we performed X chromosome specific quality control, imputation, and testing for association with COPD case-control status, lung function, and quantitative emphysema. Analyses were performed among all subjects, then stratified by sex, and subsequently combined in meta-analyses., Results: Among 10,193 subjects of non-Hispanic white or European ancestry, a variant near TMSB4X, rs5979771, reached genome-wide significance for association with lung function measured by FEV 1 /FVC ([Formula: see text] 0.020, SE 0.004, p 4.97 × 10 -08 ), with suggestive evidence of association with FEV 1 ([Formula: see text] 0.092, SE 0.018, p 3.40 × 10 -07 ). Sex-stratified analyses revealed X chromosome variants that were differentially trending in one sex, with significantly different effect sizes or directions., Conclusions: This investigation identified loci influencing lung function, COPD, and emphysema in a comprehensive genetic association meta-analysis of X chromosome genetic markers from multiple COPD-related datasets. Sex differences play an important role in the pathobiology of complex lung disease, including X chromosome variants that demonstrate differential effects by sex and variants that may be relevant through escape from X chromosome inactivation. Comprehensive interrogation of the X chromosome to better understand genetic control of COPD and lung function is important to further understanding of disease pathology. Trial registration Genetic Epidemiology of COPD Study (COPDGene) is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00608764 (Active since January 28, 2008). Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints Study (ECLIPSE), GlaxoSmithKline study code SCO104960, is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00292552 (Active since February 16, 2006). Genetics of COPD in Norway Study (GenKOLS) holds GlaxoSmithKline study code RES11080, Genetics of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Parameters from maximal expiratory flow-volume curves (MEFVC) have been linked to CT-based parameters of COPD. However, the association between MEFVC shape and phenotypes like emphysema, small airways disease (SAD) and bronchial wall thickening (BWT) has not been investigated., Research Question: We analyzed if the shape of MEFVC can be linked to CT-determined emphysema, SAD and BWT in a large cohort of COPDGene participants., Study Design and Methods: In the COPDGene cohort, we used principal component analysis (PCA) to extract patterns from MEFVC shape and performed multiple linear regression to assess the association of these patterns with CT parameters over the COPD spectrum, in mild and moderate-severe COPD., Results: Over the entire spectrum, in mild and moderate-severe COPD, principal components of MEFVC were important predictors for the continuous CT parameters. Their contribution to the prediction of emphysema diminished when classical pulmonary function test parameters were added. For SAD, the components remained very strong predictors. The adjusted R 2 was higher in moderate-severe COPD, while in mild COPD, the adjusted R 2 for all CT outcomes was low; 0.28 for emphysema, 0.21 for SAD and 0.19 for BWT., Interpretation: The shape of the maximal expiratory flow-volume curve as analyzed with PCA is not an appropriate screening tool for early disease phenotypes identified by CT scan. However, it contributes to assessing emphysema and SAD in moderate-severe COPD., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

How to deliver best care in various clinical settings remains a vexing problem. All pertinent healthcare-related questions have not, cannot, and will not be addressable with costly time- and resource-consuming controlled clinical trials. At present, evidence-based guidelines can address only a small fraction of the types of care that clinicians deliver. Furthermore, underserved areas rarely can access state-of-the-art evidence-based guidelines in real-time, and often lack the wherewithal to implement advanced guidelines. Care providers in such settings frequently do not have sufficient training to undertake advanced guideline implementation. Nevertheless, in advanced modern healthcare delivery environments, use of eActions (validated clinical decision support systems) could help overcome the cognitive limitations of overburdened clinicians. Widespread use of eActions will require surmounting current healthcare technical and cultural barriers and installing clinical evidence/data curation systems. The authors expect that increased numbers of evidence-based guidelines will result from future comparative effectiveness clinical research carried out during routine healthcare delivery within learning healthcare systems., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background Visual assessment remains the standard for evaluating emphysema at CT; however, it is time consuming, is subjective, requires training, and is affected by variability that may limit sensitivity to longitudinal change. Purpose To evaluate the clinical and imaging significance of increasing emphysema severity as graded by a deep learning algorithm on sequential CT scans in cigarette smokers. Materials and Methods A secondary analysis of the prospective Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) study participants was performed and included baseline and 5-year follow-up CT scans from 2007 to 2017. Emphysema was classified automatically according to the Fleischner emphysema grading system at baseline and 5-year follow-up using a deep learning model. Baseline and change in clinical and imaging parameters at 5-year follow-up were compared in participants whose emphysema progressed versus those who did not. Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariable Cox regression were used to assess the relationship between emphysema score progression and mortality. Results A total of 5056 participants (mean age, 60 years ± 9 [SD]; 2566 men) were evaluated. At 5-year follow-up, 1293 of the 5056 participants (26%) had emphysema progression according to the Fleischner grading system. This group demonstrated progressive airflow obstruction (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [percent predicted]: -3.4 vs -1.8), a greater decline in 6-minute walk distance (-177 m vs -124 m), and greater progression in quantitative emphysema extent (adjusted lung density: -1.4 g/L vs 0.5 g/L; percentage of lung voxels with CT attenuation less than -950 HU: 0.6 vs 0.2) than those with nonprogressive emphysema ( P < .001 for each). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed a higher mortality rate in the group with emphysema progression, with an estimated hazard ratio of 1.5 (95% CI: 1.2, 1.8; P < .001). Conclusion An increase in Fleischner emphysema grade on sequential CT scans using an automated deep learning algorithm was associated with increased functional impairment and increased risk of mortality. ClinicalTrials.gov registration no. NCT00608764 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Grenier in this issue.

Understanding baseline characteristics that can predict the progression of lung disease such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for current or former smokers may allow for therapeutic intervention, particularly for individuals at high risk of rapid disease progression or transition from non-COPD to COPD. Classic diagnostic criteria for COPD and disease severity such as the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease document are based on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ) and FEV 1 to forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio. Modeling changes in these outcomes jointly is beneficial given that they are correlated, and they are both required for specific disease classifications. Here, linear mixed models were used to model changes in FEV 1 and FEV 1 /FVC jointly for 5- and 10-year intervals, using important baseline predictors to better understand the factors that affect disease progression. Participants with predicted loss of FEV 1 and/or FEV 1 /FVC of at least 5% tended to have more emphysema, higher functional residual capacity, higher airway wall thickness as measured by Pi10, lower FVC to total lung capacity ratio and a lower body mass index at baseline, all relative to overall cohort averages. The model developed can be used to predict progression for any potential COPD individual, based on demographic, symptom, computed tomography, and comorbidity variables., (JCOPDF © 2022.)

Background: The heterogeneous nature of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) complicates the identification of the predictors of disease progression. We aimed to improve the prediction of disease progression in COPD by using machine learning and incorporating a rich dataset of phenotypic features., Methods: We included 4496 smokers with available data from their enrollment and 5-year follow-up visits in the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene ® ) study. We constructed linear regression (LR) and supervised random forest models to predict 5-year progression in forced expiratory in 1 second (FEV 1 ) from 46 baseline features. Using cross-validation, we randomly partitioned participants into training and testing samples. We also validated the results in the COPDGene 10-year follow-up visit., Results: Predicting the change in FEV 1 over time is more challenging than simply predicting the future absolute FEV 1 level. For random forest, R-squared was 0.15 and the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for the prediction of participants in the top quartile of observed progression was 0.71 (testing) and respectively, 0.10 and 0.70 (validation). Random forest provided slightly better performance than LR. The accuracy was best for Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) grades 1-2 participants, and it was harder to achieve accurate prediction in advanced stages of the disease. Predictive variables differed in their relative importance as well as for the predictions by GOLD., Conclusion: Random forest, along with deep phenotyping, predicts FEV 1 progression with reasonable accuracy. There is significant room for improvement in future models. This prediction model facilitates the identification of smokers at increased risk for rapid disease progression. Such findings may be useful in the selection of patient populations for targeted clinical trials., (JCOPDF © 2022.)

Background: Emerging data from longitudinal studies suggest that preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm), defined by proportionate reductions in FEV 1 and FVC, is a heterogeneous population with frequent transitions to other lung function categories relative to individuals with normal and obstructive spirometry. Controversy regarding the clinical significance of these transitions exists (eg, whether transitions merely reflect measurement variability or noise)., Research Question: Are individuals with PRISm enriched for transitions associated with substantial changes in lung function?, Study Design and Methods: Current and former smokers enrolled in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study with spirometry available in phases 1 through 3 (enrollment, 5-year follow-up, and 10-year follow-up) were analyzed. Postbronchodilator lung function categories were as follows: PRISm (FEV 1  < 80% predicted with FEV 1 /FVC ratio ≥ 0.7), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease grade 0 (FEV 1  ≥ 80% predicted and FEV 1 /FVC ≥ 0.7), and obstruction (FEV 1 /FVC < 0.7). Significant transition status was affirmative if a subject belonged to two or more spirometric categories and had > 10% change in FEV 1 % predicted and/or FVC % predicted between consecutive visits. Ever-PRISm was present if a subject had PRISm at any visit. Logistic regression examined the association between significant transitions and ever-PRISm status, adjusted for age, sex, race, FEV 1 % predicted, current smoking, pack-years, BMI, and ever-positive bronchodilator response., Results: Among subjects with complete data (N = 1,775) over 10.1 ± 0.4 years of follow-up, the prevalence of PRISm remained consistent (10.4%-11.3%) between phases 1 through 3, but nearly one-half of subjects with PRISm transitioned into or out of PRISm at each visit. Among all subjects, 19.7% had a significant transition; ever-PRISm was a significant predictor of significant transitions (unadjusted OR, 10.3; 95% CI, 7.9-13.5; adjusted OR, 14.9; 95% CI, 10.9-20.7). Results were similar with additional adjustment for radiographic emphysema and gas trapping, when lower limit of normal criteria were used to define lung function categories, and when FEV 1 alone (regardless of change in FVC % predicted) was used to define significant transitions., Interpretation: PRISm is an unstable group, with frequent significant transitions to both obstruction and normal spirometry over time., Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT000608764; URL: www., Clinicaltrials: gov., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Background: Optimism is the general belief that good things will occur in the future; optimism is modifiable by cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Previous studies have associated higher optimism with improved health outcomes and lower all-cause mortality., Research Question: Investigate association between optimism and disease-related characteristics in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)., Study Design and Methods: Current and former smokers with/without COPD and Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry (PRISm) from the 10-year follow-up visit for the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study were included. Optimism was assessed at the 10-year visit using the Life Orientation Test-Revised. Models of optimism as a predictor of lung function, COPD-associated phenotypes including exacerbations, and functional assessments, were adjusted for demographic confounders, smoking status, and comorbidities., Results: Among 1967 subjects, higher optimism was significantly associated with older age, non-Hispanic white race, marital status, quitting smoking status, absence of COPD, and absence of depression. In multivariable analysis, higher optimism was independently associated with fewer prior exacerbations of COPD (coef = - 0.037, P < 0.001). Higher optimism was also related to better MMRC scores (coef = - 0.041, P < 0.001), CAT scores (coef = - 0.391, P < 0.001), SGRQ scores (coef = - 0.958, P < 0.001), BODE index (coef = - 0.059, P < 0.001), and longer 6-min walk distance (coef = 10.227, P < 0.001). After stratification by severity of COPD, these associations with optimism were still significant in all groups. No significant association was observed for cross-sectional FEV 1 (%) or FVC (%) with optimism score., Interpretation: Fewer exacerbations and less severe respiratory symptoms and higher functional capacity were associated with higher optimism, which may impact health outcomes in current and former smokers with and without COPD. Optimism is a modifiable trait and these results may further support a role for CBT to improve outcomes in COPD., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: The burden of frequent respiratory exacerbations in COPD patients with mild-to-moderate spirometric impairment and smokers with preserved lung function is unknown., Methods: We categorized COPD participants in COPDGene with post-bronchodilator FEV1%predicted≥50% by the annual exacerbation frequency into three groups: i)frequent exacerbators (top 5%; n = 109), ii)exacerbators (>0 but less than frequent exacerbators; n = 1,009), and iii)No exacerbation (n = 981). Exacerbations were defined as respiratory episodes requiring antibiotics and/or systemic steroids. We performed a Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to examine the association with mortality. We repeated the same process in current/former smokers with preserved spirometry (FEV1≥80%predicted and FEV1/FVC≥0.7)., Results: Among 2,099 COPD participants, frequent exacerbators had ≥1.8 exacerbations/year and were responsible for 34.3% of the total exacerbations. There were 102 (10.4%) deaths in the group with no exacerbations, 119 (11.8%) in the exacerbator group, and 24 (22%) in the frequent exacerbators. Adjusted mortality in frequent exacerbators was higher relative to individuals with no exacerbations (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.98; 95%CI = 1.25-3.13). An increase in frequency of exacerbations by one exacerbation/year was associated with increased mortality (HR = 1.40,95%CI = 1.21-1.62). Among 3,143 participants with preserved spirometry, frequent exacerbators had ≥0.8 exacerbations/year and were responsible for more than half of the exacerbations. There were 93 (4.2%) deaths in the group with no exacerbations, 28 (3.8%) in the exacerbator group, and 14 (7.6%) in the frequent exacerbators. The adjusted mortality was increased in frequent exacerbators with preserved spirometry relative to those with no exacerbations (HR = 2.25; 95%CI = 1.26-4.01)., Conclusions: In COPD participants with mild-to-moderate spirometric impairment and smokers with preserved spirometry, the frequent exacerbator phenotype is responsible for a large proportion of total exacerbations and associated with high mortality.

Biofilm-associated infections in orthopedic surgery lead to worse clinical outcomes and greater morbidity and mortality. The scope of the problem encompasses infected total joints, internally fixed fractures, and implanted devices. Diagnosis is difficult. Cultures are often negative, and antibiotic treatments are ineffective. The infections resist killing by the immune system and antibiotics. The organized matrix structure of extracellular polymeric substances within the biofilm shields and protects the bacteria from identification and immune cell action. Bacteria in biofilms actively modulate their redox environment and can enhance the matrix structure by creating an oxidizing environment. We postulated that a potent redox-active metalloporphyrin MnTE-2-PyP (chemical name: manganese (II) meso-tetrakis-(N-methylpyridinium-2-yl) porphyrin) that scavenges reactive species and modulates the redox state to a reduced state, would improve the effect of antibiotic treatment for a biofilm-associated infection. An infected fracture model with a midshaft femoral osteotomy was created in C57B6 mice, internally fixed with an intramedullary 23-gauge needle and seeded with a biofilm-forming variant of Staphylococcus aureus. Animals were divided into three treatment groups: control, antibiotic alone, and combined antibioticplus MnTE-2-PyP. The combined treatment group had significantly decreased bacterial counts in harvested bone, compared with antibiotic alone. In vitro crystal violet assay of biofilm structure and corresponding nitroblue tetrazolium assay for reactive oxygen species (ROS) demonstrated that MnTE-2-PyP decreased the biofilm structure and reduced ROS in a correlated and dose-dependent manner. The biofilm structure is redox-sensitive in S. aureus and an ROS scavenger improved the effect of antibiotic therapy in model of biofilm-associated infections., (© 2020 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Introduction: Smoking cessation counseling is a central part of the Medicare guidelines for lung cancer screening. With increasing age, many heavy smokers eventually stop smoking, however, factors influencing the decision to stop smoking are poorly understood. We postulated that declining health or physician-diagnosis of a medical condition may be associated with successful smoking cessation., Methods: A total of 4448 current and former smokers in Phase 2 of the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene®) study answered a question about reasons for stopping smoking. Participants were classified as successful quitters (n=3345), and unsuccessful quitters (n=1003). Reasons cited for quitting were grouped as: medical diagnoses, social factors, symptoms. Logistic modeling of factors associated with successful quitting were adjusted for age, gender, race, and education., Results: The most common factors cited for a quit attempt by all respondents were medical diagnoses (48%), followed by social factors (47%), and respiratory symptoms (36%). Successful quitters were more likely to be older, male, and non-Hispanic White. An adjusted model found increased age, White race, education beyond high school, and male sex favored successful quitting while the cited medical diagnoses, social factors, and "other" reasons were associated with unsuccessful quitting. Fagerstrom Nicotine Dependence scores were ³ 5 in 54% of the unsuccessful group compared to 45% for successful quitters( p <0.0001) suggesting some increased nicotine dependence in the unsuccessful quitters., Conclusions: Medical diagnosis was the most common factor cited for considering a quit attempt by both successful and unsuccessful quitters; however, successful quitting was influenced by demographic factors and potentially the severity of nicotine dependence., (JCOPDF © 2021.)

Objective: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by airflow limitation; however, pulmonary function does not fully account for patients' functional difficulties. The primary aim of the study was to determine the association between several domains of cognition and daily activity among those with COPD., Method: Eighty-nine former smokers completed a neuropsychological battery including measures across multiple domains of cognition, pulmonary function measures, and daily activity questionnaires. Using a cross-sectional design, we compared daily activity between former smokers with and without COPD using two measures (St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire [SGRQ] Activity Subscale and Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living [IADL] Scale) and examined the association between cognition and daily activity among those with COPD., Results: As expected, former smokers with COPD reported more difficulty than those without COPD on both activity measures (SGRQ Activity Subscale p < .001; Lawton IADL Scale p = .040). Among former smokers with COPD, poorer delayed recall was associated with more difficulty with daily activities (SGRQ Activity Subscale) (p = .038) while adjusting for severity of airflow limitation, exercise tolerance, oxygen use, dyspnea, and symptoms of anxiety and depression., Conclusion: The findings suggest that cognition is associated with daily activity in patients with COPD. Future research should examine whether cognitive interventions may help to maximize patients' engagement in daily activities., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) are both independently associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and impaired cognitive function. It is unknown if individuals with both COPD and OSA (i.e., overlap syndrome) have greater common carotid artery (CCA) stiffness, an independent predictor of CVD risk, and lower cognitive performance than either COPD or OSA alone. Elevated CCA stiffness is associated with cognitive impairment in former smokers with and without COPD in past studies. We compared CCA stiffness and cognitive performance between former smokers with overlap syndrome, COPD only, OSA only and former smoker controls using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests to adjust for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), pack years, and postbronchodilator FEV 1 /FVC. We also examined the association between CCA stiffness and cognitive performance among each group separately. Individuals with overlap syndrome ( n = 12) had greater CCA β-stiffness index ( P = 0.015) and lower executive function-processing speed ( P = 0.019) than individuals with COPD alone ( n = 47), OSA alone ( n = 9), and former smoker controls ( n = 21), differences that remained significant after adjusting for age, BMI, sex, pack years, and FEV 1 /FVC. Higher CCA β-stiffness index was associated with lower executive function-processing speed in individuals with overlap syndrome ( r = -0.58, P = 0.047). These data suggest that CCA stiffness is greater and cognitive performance is lower among individuals with overlap syndrome compared with individuals with COPD or OSA alone and that CCA stiffening may be an underlying mechanism contributing to the lower cognitive performance observed in patients with overlap syndrome. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Previous studies have demonstrated greater carotid artery stiffness and lower cognitive function among individuals with COPD alone and OSA alone. However, the present study is the first to demonstrate that individuals that have both COPD and OSA (i.e., overlap syndrome) have greater carotid artery stiffness and lower executive function-processing speed than individuals with either disorder alone. Furthermore, among individuals with overlap syndrome greater carotid artery stiffness is associated with lower executive function-processing speed.

Clinical decision-making is based on knowledge, expertise, and authority, with clinicians approving almost every intervention-the starting point for delivery of "All the right care, but only the right care," an unachieved healthcare quality improvement goal. Unaided clinicians suffer from human cognitive limitations and biases when decisions are based only on their training, expertise, and experience. Electronic health records (EHRs) could improve healthcare with robust decision-support tools that reduce unwarranted variation of clinician decisions and actions. Current EHRs, focused on results review, documentation, and accounting, are awkward, time-consuming, and contribute to clinician stress and burnout. Decision-support tools could reduce clinician burden and enable replicable clinician decisions and actions that personalize patient care. Most current clinical decision-support tools or aids lack detail and neither reduce burden nor enable replicable actions. Clinicians must provide subjective interpretation and missing logic, thus introducing personal biases and mindless, unwarranted, variation from evidence-based practice. Replicability occurs when different clinicians, with the same patient information and context, come to the same decision and action. We propose a feasible subset of therapeutic decision-support tools based on credible clinical outcome evidence: computer protocols leading to replicable clinician actions (eActions). eActions enable different clinicians to make consistent decisions and actions when faced with the same patient input data. eActions embrace good everyday decision-making informed by evidence, experience, EHR data, and individual patient status. eActions can reduce unwarranted variation, increase quality of clinical care and research, reduce EHR noise, and could enable a learning healthcare system., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Little is known about factors associated with emphysema progression in cigarette smokers. We evaluated factors associated with change in emphysema and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ) in participants with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)., Methods: This retrospective study included individuals participating in the COPD Genetic Epidemiology study who completed the 5-year follow-up, including inspiratory and expiratory computed tomography (CT) and spirometry. All paired CT scans were analyzed using micro-mapping, which classifies individual voxels as emphysema or functional small airway disease (fSAD). Presence and progression of emphysema and FEV 1 were determined based on comparison to nonsmoker values. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify clinical parameters associated with disease progression., Results: A total of 3088 participants were included with a mean ± SD age of 60.7±8.9 years, including 72 nonsmokers. In all Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages, the presence of emphysema at baseline was associated with emphysema progression (odds ratio [OR]: GOLD 0: 4.32; preserved ratio-impaired spirometry [PRISm]; 5.73; GOLD 1: 5.16; GOLD 2: 5.69; GOLD 3/4: 5.55; all p ≤0.01). If there was no emphysema at baseline, the amount of fSAD at baseline was associated with emphysema progression (OR for 1% increase: GOLD 0: 1.06; PRISm: 1.20; GOLD 1: 1.7; GOLD 3/4: 1.08; all p ≤ 0.03).In 1735 participants without spirometric COPD, progression in emphysema occurred in 105 (6.1%) participants and only 21 (1.2%) had progression in both emphysema and FEV 1 ., Conclusions: The presence of emphysema is an important predictor of emphysema progression. In patients without emphysema, fSAD is associated with the development of emphysema. In participants without spirometric COPD, emphysema progression occurred independently of FEV 1 decline., (JCOPDF © 2021.)

Background: Risk factor identification is a proven strategy in advancing treatments and preventive therapy for many chronic conditions. Quantifying the impact of those risk factors on health outcomes can consolidate and focus efforts on individuals with specific high-risk profiles. Using multiple risk factors and longitudinal outcomes in 2 independent cohorts, we developed and validated a risk score model to predict mortality in current and former cigarette smokers., Methods: We obtained extensive data on current and former smokers from the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene ® ) study at enrollment. Based on physician input and model goodness-of-fit measures, a subset of variables was selected to fit final Weibull survival models separately for men and women. Coefficients and predictors were translated into a point system, allowing for easy computation of mortality risk scores and probabilities. We then used the SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort for external validation of our model., Results: Of 9867 COPDGene participants with standard baseline data, 17.6% died over 10 years of follow-up, and 9074 of these participants had the full set of baseline predictors (standard plus 6-minute walk distance and computed tomography variables) available for full model fits. The average age of participants in the cohort was 60 for both men and women, and the average predicted 10-year mortality risk was 18% for women and 25% for men. Model time-integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve statistics demonstrated good predictive model accuracy (0.797 average), validated in the external cohort (0.756 average). Risk of mortality was impacted most by 6-minute walk distance, forced expiratory volume in 1 second and age, for both men and women., Conclusions: Current and former smokers exhibited a wide range of mortality risk over a 10- year period. Our models can identify higher risk individuals who can be targeted for interventions to reduce risk of mortality, for participants with or without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using current Global initiative for obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria., Competing Interests: The COPDGene® study is funded by National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute grants U01 HL089897 and U01 HL089856. The COPDGene® study (NCT00608764) is also supported by the COPD Foundation through contributions made to an Industry Advisory Committee comprised of AstraZeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Pfizer, Siemens, and Sunovion. While some individual authors of this manuscript were employed by one of the listed funders at the time the work of this study was conducted, these employment relationships did not constitute undue influence by funders. These funders have had no official role in the collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data or design and conduct of the study. All authors have completed a Conflict of Interest form, disclosing any real or apparent financial relationships including receiving royalties, honoraria or fees for consulting, lectures, speakers’ bureaus, continuing education, medical advisory boards or expert testimony; receipt of grants; travel reimbursement; direct employment compensation. These disclosure forms have been filed with the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases: Journal of the COPD Foundation Editorial Office and are available for review, upon request, at jcopdf@copdfoundation.org., (JCOPDF © 2020.)

Background The clinical significance of visually evident emphysema on CT images in individuals without spirometric evidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by current diagnostic criteria is, to the knowledge of the authors, unknown. Purpose To evaluate whether participants with visually evident emphysema at CT were more likely to have progressive disease and increased mortality at 5 years compared with those without visual emphysema. Materials and Methods This secondary analysis of the prospective Genetic Epidemiology of COPD study evaluated current or former smokers enrolled between 2008 and 2011 who did not meet current criteria for COPD (defined as Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease stage 0). Statistical analysis was performed by using linear mixed models to estimate mean physiologic, imaging, and clinical outcomes for those with and without visual emphysema. Hazard ratios for mortality were calculated by using Cox regression models with emphysema as the main predictor. Results Of the 4095 participants, 48.3% (1979 participants; 1096 men and 883 women; mean age, 57 years ± 8 [standard deviation]) had trace or greater visual emphysema at CT and 51.7% (2116 participants; 1068 men and 1048 women; mean age, 56 years ± 8) had no emphysema at CT. At 5 years, participants with visual emphysema at CT demonstrated progressive airflow obstruction with lower values of ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 )-to-functional vital capacity (FVC) ratio (-1.7 vs -0.7) and greater progression in quantitative emphysema measured by 15th percentile lung density (-3.3 vs -0.3 HU), adjusted lung density (-3.1 vs -0.2 g/L), and percentage of lung voxels with CT attenuation less than -950 HU (0.17 vs -0.20) than participants without emphysema ( P < .001 for each). The rate of quantitative emphysema progression increased with greater grades of emphysema severity within the emphysema group. Conclusion The presence of visual emphysema at CT in current and former Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease stage 0 smokers predicted structural and physiologic disease progression. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Grenier in this issue.

Background: Genetic factors influence chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk, but the individual variants that have been identified have small effects. We hypothesised that a polygenic risk score using additional variants would predict COPD and associated phenotypes., Methods: We constructed a polygenic risk score using a genome-wide association study of lung function (FEV 1 and FEV 1 /forced vital capacity [FVC]) from the UK Biobank and SpiroMeta. We tested this polygenic risk score in nine cohorts of multiple ethnicities for an association with moderate-to-severe COPD (defined as FEV 1 /FVC <0·7 and FEV 1 <80% of predicted). Associations were tested using logistic regression models, adjusting for age, sex, height, smoking pack-years, and principal components of genetic ancestry. We assessed predictive performance of models by area under the curve. In a subset of studies, we also studied quantitative and qualitative CT imaging phenotypes that reflect parenchymal and airway pathology, and patterns of reduced lung growth., Findings: The polygenic risk score was associated with COPD in European (odds ratio [OR] per SD 1·81 [95% CI 1·74-1·88] and non-European (1·42 [1·34-1·51]) populations. Compared with the first decile, the tenth decile of the polygenic risk score was associated with COPD, with an OR of 7·99 (6·56-9·72) in European ancestry and 4·83 (3·45-6·77) in non-European ancestry cohorts. The polygenic risk score was superior to previously described genetic risk scores and, when combined with clinical risk factors (ie, age, sex, and smoking pack-years), showed improved prediction for COPD compared with a model comprising clinical risk factors alone (AUC 0·80 [0·79-0·81] vs 0·76 [0·75-0·76]). The polygenic risk score was associated with CT imaging phenotypes, including wall area percent, quantitative and qualitative measures of emphysema, local histogram emphysema patterns, and destructive emphysema subtypes. The polygenic risk score was associated with a reduced lung growth pattern., Interpretation: A risk score comprised of genetic variants can identify a small subset of individuals at markedly increased risk for moderate-to-severe COPD, emphysema subtypes associated with cigarette smoking, and patterns of reduced lung growth., Funding: US National Institutes of Health, Wellcome Trust., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background Heavy smokers perform worse on neuropsychological assessment than age-matched peers. However, traditional pulmonary measures of airflow limitation and hypoxemia explain only a modest amount of variance in cognition. The current objective was to determine whether carotid artery stiffness is associated with cognition in former smokers beyond the effects of amount of smoking and pulmonary function. Methods and Results Eighty-four former smokers including individuals across a spectrum of airflow limitation severity were included: 30 without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] 0 with normal spirometry and lung computed tomography), 31 with mild-moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (GOLD 1-2), and 23 with severe-very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (GOLD 3-4). Participants completed questionnaires, spirometry, carotid ultrasonography, and neuropsychological testing. Multiple linear regression was used to determine whether carotid artery stiffness is associated with neuropsychological performance in 4 cognitive domains after adjusting for age, sex, pack-years of smoking, estimated premorbid intellectual functioning, and airflow limitation. Higher carotid artery β-stiffness index was associated with reduced executive functioning-processing speed in the fully adjusted model (β=-0.49, SE=0.14; P =0.001). Lower premorbid intellectual function, male sex, and presence of airflow limitation (GOLD 1 or 2 and GOLD 3 or 4) were also associated with worse executive functioning-processing speed. β-Stiffness index was not significantly associated with performance in other cognitive domains. Conclusions Carotid artery stiffness is associated with worse performance on executive functioning-processing speed in former smokers beyond the effects of aging, amount of past smoking, severity of airflow limitation, and hypoxemia. Future research should examine whether carotid stiffness can be used to identify former smokers at risk for subsequent cognitive impairment.

Background: Standard spirometry cannot identify the predominant mechanism underlying airflow obstruction in COPD, namely emphysema or airway disease. We aimed at validating a previously developed methodology to detect emphysema by mathematical analysis of the maximal expiratory flow-volume (MEFV) curve in standard spirometry., Methods: From the COPDGene population we selected those 5930 subjects with MEFV curve and inspiratory-expiratory CT obtained on the same day. The MEFV curve descending limb was fit real-time using forced vital capacity (FVC), peak expiratory flow, and forced expiratory flows at 25, 50 and 75% of FVC to derive an emphysema severity index (ESI), expressed as a continuous positive numeric parameter ranging from 0 to 10. According to inspiratory CT percent lung attenuation area below - 950 HU we defined three emphysema severity subgroups (%LAA -950insp  < 6, 6-14, ≥14). By co-registration of inspiratory-expiratory CT we quantified persistent (%pLDA) and functional (%fLDA) low-density areas as CT metrics of emphysema and airway disease, respectively., Results: ESI differentiated CT emphysema severity subgroups increasing in parallel with GOLD stages (p < .001), but with high variability within each stage. ESI had significantly higher correlations (p < .001) with emphysema than with airway disease CT metrics, explaining 67% of %pLDA variability. Conversely, standard spirometric variables (FEV 1 , FEV 1 /FVC) had significantly lower correlations than ESI with emphysema CT metrics and did not differentiate between emphysema and airways CT metrics., Conclusions: ESI adds to standard spirometry the power to discriminate whether emphysema is the predominant mechanism of airway obstruction. ESI methodology has been validated in the large multiethnic population of smokers of the COPDGene study and therefore it could be applied for clinical and research purposes in the general population of smokers, using a readily available online website.

Prediction models aim to use available data to predict a health state or outcome that has not yet been observed. Prediction is primarily relevant to clinical practice, but is also used in research, and administration. While prediction modeling involves estimating the relationship between patient factors and outcomes, it is distinct from casual inference. Prediction modeling thus requires unique considerations for development, validation, and updating. This document represents an effort from editors at 31 respiratory, sleep, and critical care medicine journals to consolidate contemporary best practices and recommendations related to prediction study design, conduct, and reporting. Herein, we address issues commonly encountered in submissions to our various journals. Key topics include considerations for selecting predictor variables, operationalizing variables, dealing with missing data, the importance of appropriate validation, model performance measures and their interpretation, and good reporting practices. Supplemental discussion covers emerging topics such as model fairness, competing risks, pitfalls of "modifiable risk factors", measurement error, and risk for bias. This guidance is not meant to be overly prescriptive; we acknowledge that every study is different, and no set of rules will fit all cases. Additional best practices can be found in the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, to which we refer readers for further details.

Background CT is used to quantify abnormal changes in the lung parenchyma of smokers that might overlap chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but studies on the progression of expiratory air trapping in smokers are scarce. Purpose To evaluate the relationship between longitudinal changes in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ) and CT-quantified emphysema and air trapping in smokers. Materials and Methods Cigarette smokers with and those without COPD participating in the multicenter observational COPDGene study were evaluated. Subjects underwent inspiratory and expiratory chest CT and spirometry at baseline and 5-year follow-up. Emphysema was quantified by using adjusted lung density (ALD). Air trapping was quantified by using mean lung density at expiratory CT and CT-measured functional residual capacity-to-total lung volume ratio. Linear models were used to regress quantitative CT measurements taken 5 years apart, and models were fit with and without adding FEV 1 as a predictor. Analyses were stratified by Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage (GOLD 0, no COPD; GOLD 1, mild COPD; GOLD 2, moderate COPD; GOLD 3, severe COPD; GOLD 4, very severe COPD). Subjects with preserved FEV 1 -to-forced vital capacity ratio and reduced FEV 1 percentage predicted were categorized as having preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm). Results A total of 4211 subjects (503 with PRISm; 2034 with GOLD 0, 388 with GOLD 1, 816 with GOLD 2, 381 with GOLD 3, 89 with GOLD 4) were evaluated. ALD decreased by 1.7 g/L (95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.5, -0.9) in subjects with GOLD 0 at baseline and by 5.3 g/L (95% CI: -6.2, -4.4) in those with GOLD 1-4 ( P < .001 for both). When adjusted for changes in FEV 1 , corresponding numbers were -2.2 (95% CI: -3.0, -1.3) and -4.6 g/L (95% CI: -5.6, -3.4) ( P < .001 for both). Progression in air trapping was identified only in GOLD stage 2-4. Approximately 33%-50% of changes in air trapping in GOLD stages 2-4 were accounted for by changes in FEV 1 . Conclusion CT measures of emphysema and air trapping increased over 5 years in smokers. Forced expiratory volume in one second accounted for less than 10% of emphysema progression and less than 50% of air trapping progression detected at CT. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Background: Apparent increased female susceptibility to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) suggests sex hormones modulate disease pathogenesis. Little is known about associations between multiparity and lung function in smokers., Research Question: We hypothesized that multiparity is associated with lung function and measures of emphysema and airway disease., Study Design and Methods: Utilizing female participants from the 5-year follow up of the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene ® ) study we performed multivariable linear regressions to assess the effect of multiparity and number of pregnancies on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ) percentage of predicted (% predicted), FEV 1 /forced vital capacity (FVC), percent emphysema on computed tomography (CT) scans, and Pi10, a measure of airway thickening. We sampled never smokers and those with lower smoking exposure from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011-2012 dataset., Results: We included 1820 participants from COPDGene ® and 418 participants from NHANES (321 never smokers, 97 ever smokers). In COPDGene ® , multiparity (beta coefficient [β] = -3.8, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [-6.5, -1.1], p = 0.005) and higher number of pregnancies were associated with lower FEV 1 % predicted. Multiparity was not associated with percent emphysema or Pi10. In individuals with no or mild obstruction, multiparity was associated with lower FEV 1 % predicted. There was an interaction with multiparity and age on FEV 1 % predicted ( p = 0.025). In NHANES, there was no association between multiparity and FEV 1 % predicted in never smokers or the lower smoking exposure group., Interpretation: Multiparity was associated with lower FEV 1 % predicted in current and former smokers in COPDGene ® study participants. These preliminary results emphasize the importance of smoking abstinence in women of child-bearing age., Competing Interests: MM is supported by National Institutes of Health grant T32HL007427. DLD is supported by P01 HL 114501 and P01 132825. EKS is supported by P01 HL114501, R01 HL133135, R01 HL137927, and R01 HL147148. JDC and EKS are supported by U01 HL089897 and U01 HL089856. SML is supported by National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute grant K01HL125858. EKS received grant and travel support from GlaxoSmithKline and grant support from Bayer. DLD has received grant support from Bayer., (JCOPDF © 2020.)

Objective: Diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH) is a condition characterized by bony proliferation at sites of tendinous and ligamentous insertions in the spine. Spinal mobility is reduced in DISH and may affect movement in the thorax, potentially leading to restrictive pulmonary function. This study investigated whether DISH is associated with restrictive spirometric pattern (RSP) in former and current smokers., Methods: Participants (n = 1784) with complete postbronchodilator spirometry who did not meet spirometric criteria for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) at time of enrollment in the COPDGene study were included in this study. Subjects were classified as RSP if they had forced expiratory volume in 1 s(FEV1) to forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio > 0.7 with an FVC < 80%. Computed tomography (CT) scans were scored for the presence of DISH in accordance with the Resnick criteria. Chest CT measures of interstitial and alveolar lung disease, clinical symptoms, health surveys, and 6-min walking distance were recorded. Uni- and multivariable analyses were performed to test the association of DISH with RSP., Results: DISH was present in 236 subjects (13.2%). RSP was twice as common in participants with DISH (n = 90/236, 38.1%) compared to those without DISH (n = 301/1548, 19.4%; p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, DISH was significantly associated with RSP (OR 1.78; 95% CI 1.22-2.60; p = 0.003) after adjusting for potential confounders. The RSP group with and without DISH had significantly worse spirometry, dyspnea, St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score, BODE index (Body mass index, airflow Obstruction, Dyspnea and Exercise capacity), and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 questionnaire score., Conclusion: In heavy smokers with an FEV1/FVC ratio > 0.70, DISH is associated with RSP after adjustment for intrinsic and extrinsic causes of restrictive lung function. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT00608764.).

One quarter of individuals with Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry (PRISm) will develop airflow obstruction, but there are no established methods to identify these individuals. We examined the utility of FVC/TLC in identifying features of obstructive lung disease. The ratio of post-bronchodilator FVC and TLC CT from chest CT (FVC/TLC CT ) among current and former smokers with PRISm (FEV 1 /FVC ≥ 0.7 and FEV1 < 80%) in COPDGene was used to stratify subjects into quartiles: very high, high, low, and very low. We examined the associations between FVC/TLC CT quartiles and (1) baseline characteristics, (2) respiratory exacerbations, (3) progression to COPD at 5 years, and (4) all-cause mortality. Among participants with PRISm at baseline (n = 1,131), the very low FVC/TLC CT quartile was associated with increased gas trapping and emphysema, and higher rates of progression to COPD at 5 years (36% versus 17%; p < 0.001) relative to the very high quartile. The very low FVC/TLC CT quartile was associated with increased total (IRR = 1.65; 95% CI [1.07-2.54]) and severe (IRR = 2.24; 95% CI [1.29-3.89]) respiratory exacerbations. Mortality was lower in the very high FVC/TLC CT quartile relative to the other quartiles combined. Reduced FVC/TLC CT ratio in PRISm is associated with increased symptoms, radiographic emphysema and gas trapping, exacerbations, and progression to COPD.

BackgroundPattern of emphysema at chest CT, scored visually by using the Fleischner Society system, is associated with physiologic impairment and mortality risk.PurposeTo determine whether participant-level emphysema pattern could predict impairment and mortality when classified by using a deep learning method.Materials and MethodsThis retrospective analysis of Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study participants enrolled between 2007 and 2011 included those with baseline CT, visual emphysema scores, and survival data through 2018. Participants were partitioned into nonoverlapping sets of 2407 for algorithm training, 100 for validation and parameter tuning, and 7143 for testing. A deep learning algorithm using convolutional neural network and long short-term memory architectures was trained to classify pattern of emphysema according to Fleischner criteria. Deep learning scores were compared with visual scores and clinical parameters including pulmonary function tests. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate relationships between emphysema scores and survival. The algorithm was also tested by using CT and clinical data in 1962 participants enrolled in the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE) study.ResultsA total of 7143 COPDGene participants (mean age ± standard deviation, 59.8 years ± 8.9; 3734 men and 3409 women) were evaluated. Deep learning emphysema classifications were associated with impaired pulmonary function tests, 6-minute walk distance, and St George's Respiratory Questionnaire at univariate analysis ( P < .001 for each). Testing in the ECLIPSE cohort showed similar associations ( P < .001). In the COPDGene test cohort, deep learning emphysema classification improved the fit of linear mixed models in the prediction of these clinical parameters compared with visual scoring ( P < .001). Compared with participants without emphysema, mortality was greater in participants classified by the deep learning algorithm as having any grade of emphysema (adjusted hazard ratios were 1.5, 1.7, 2.9, 5.3, and 9.7, respectively, for trace, mild, moderate, confluent, and advanced destructive emphysema; P < .05).ConclusionDeep learning automation of the Fleischner grade of emphysema at chest CT is associated with clinical measures of pulmonary insufficiency and the risk of mortality.© RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Background: Multiple studies have identified COPD subtypes by using visual or quantitative evaluation of CT images. However, there has been no systematic assessment of a combined visual and quantitative CT imaging classification. We integrated visually defined patterns of emphysema with quantitative imaging features and spirometry data to produce a set of 10 nonoverlapping CT imaging subtypes, and we assessed differences between subtypes in demographic features, physiological characteristics, longitudinal disease progression, and mortality., Methods: We evaluated 9,080 current and former smokers in the COPDGene study who had available volumetric inspiratory and expiratory CT images obtained using a standardized imaging protocol. We defined 10 discrete, nonoverlapping CT imaging subtypes: no CT imaging abnormality, paraseptal emphysema (PSE), bronchial disease, small airway disease, mild emphysema, upper lobe predominant centrilobular emphysema (CLE), lower lobe predominant CLE, diffuse CLE, visual without quantitative emphysema, and quantitative without visual emphysema. Baseline and 5-year longitudinal characteristics and mortality were compared across these CT imaging subtypes., Results: The overall mortality differed significantly between groups (P < .01) and was highest in the 3 moderate to severe CLE groups. Subjects having quantitative but not visual emphysema and subjects with visual but not quantitative emphysema were unique groups with mild COPD, at risk for progression, and with likely different underlying mechanisms. Subjects with PSE and/or moderate to severe CLE had substantial progression of emphysema over 5 years compared with findings in subjects with no CT imaging abnormality (P < .01)., Conclusions: The combination of visual and quantitative CT imaging features reflects different underlying pathological processes in the heterogeneous COPD syndrome and provides a useful approach to reclassify types of COPD., Trial Registry: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT00608764; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov., (Copyright © 2019 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Attention difficulties are often reported by patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); however, limited research exists using objective tests designed specifically to measure attention in this population. This study aimed to (1) identify specific attention deficits in COPD and (2) determine which demographic/clinical characteristics are associated with reduced attention., Methods: Eighty-four former smokers (53 COPD, 31 no COPD) completed questionnaires, pulmonary function testing, and the Conner's Continuous Performance Test II (CPT-II). Participants with and without COPD were compared on CPT-II measures of inattention, impulsivity, and vigilance. CPT-II measures that differed significantly between the two groups were further examined using hierarchical regression modeling. Demographic/clinical characteristics were entered into models with attention as the dependent variable., Results: Participants with COPD performed worse than those without COPD on CPT measures of inattention and impulsivity (i.e., detectability [discrimination of target from non-target stimuli], perseverations [reaction time under 100 ms], omissions [target stimuli response failures], and commissions [responses to non-target stimuli]). More severe COPD (measured by greater airflow limitation) was associated with poorer ability to detect targets vs. foils and perseverative responding after adjusting for age and other covariates in the model., Conclusion: Former smokers with COPD experience problems with attention that go beyond slowed processing speed, including aspects of inattention and impulsivity. Clinicians should be aware that greater airflow limitation and older age are associated with attention difficulties, as this may impact functioning.

Background The objective of the study was to assess the diagnostic process, access to care and treatment adequacy for primary adrenal insufficiency (PAI) patients from a US-based online registry. Methods The National Adrenal Diseases Foundation (NADF) patient registry from 2015 to 2016 was used for a cross-sectional assessment of PAI patients. Five hundred and forty-one adults met the study inclusion criteria (US residents, age >20, self-reported physician diagnosis of PAI and replacement dosing for cortisol). Issues in diagnosis, comorbid conditions, symptoms, with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics were determined. Disease management assessment included medication dose, patient satisfaction with function, and education. Factors associated with adrenal crisis were noted. Results The cohort was predominantly female (83%), non-Hispanic White (97%), and well-educated (94% > high school education). A majority (57%) of patients reported difficulty with initial diagnosis, while 27% felt that their current steroid replacement was not adequate. Comorbid thyroid disease and other autoimmune conditions were common among PAI patients in the registry. More than three-quarters (78%) of patients used hydrocortisone for glucocorticoid replacement with a mean dose of 24.4 (standard deviation [SD]: 8.7) mg. Mean dose of hydrocortisone has declined over time following current treatment recommendations. Conclusions Timely, accurate diagnosis remains a problem for patients with primary adrenal insufficiency in an affluent, well-educated US cohort. Episodes of adrenal crisis are common and replacement steroid treatment is not always effective for patient function. Comprehensive information about outcomes of care for PAI in the US remains limited and the establishment of a research-specific registry to foster future research may be desirable. Patient registry data is a valuable source of information on diagnostic error and outcomes of care in rare diseases.

Background: Previous attempts to explore the heterogeneity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) clustered individual patients using clinical, demographic, and disease features. We developed continuous multidimensional disease axes based on radiographic and spirometric variables that split into an airway-predominant axis and an emphysema-predominant axis., Methods: The COPD Genetic Epidemiology study (COPDGene ® ) is a cohort of current and former smokers, > 45 years, with at least 10 pack years of smoking history. Spirometry measures, blood pressure and body mass were directly measured. Mortality was assessed through continuing longitudinal follow-up and cause of death was adjudicated. Among 8157 COPDGene ® participants with complete spirometry and computed tomography (CT) measures, the top 2 deciles of the airway-predominant and emphysema-predominant axes previously identified were used to categorize individuals into 3 groups having the highest risk for mortality using Cox proportional hazard ratios. These groups were also assessed for causal mortality. Biomarkers of COPD (fibrinogen, soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products [sRAGE], C-reactive protein [CRP], clara cell secretory protein [CC16], surfactant-D [SP-D]) were compared by group., Findings: High-risk subtype classification was defined for 2638 COPDGene ® participants who were in the highest 2 deciles of either the airway-predominant and/or emphysema-predominant axis (32% of the cohort). These high-risk participants fell into 3 groups: airway-predominant disease only (APD-only), emphysema-predominant disease only (EPD-only) and combined APD-EPD. There was 26% mortality for the APD-only group, 21% mortality for the EPD-only group, and 54% mortality for the combined APD-EPD group. The APD-only group (n=1007) was younger, had a lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ) percent (%) predicted and a strong association with the preserved ratio-impaired spirometry (PRISm) quadrant. The EPD-only group (n=1006) showed a relatively higher FEV 1 % predicted and included largely GOLD stage 0, 1 and 2 partipants. Individuals in each of the 3 high-risk groups were at greater risk for respiratory mortality, while those in the APD-only group were additionally at greater risk for cardiovascular mortality. Biomarker analysis demonstrated a significant association of the APD-only group with CRP, and sRAGE demonstrated greatest significance with both the EPD-only and the combined APD-EPD groups., Interpretation: Among current and former smokers, individuals in the highest 2 deciles for mortality risk on the airway-predominant axis and the emphysema-predominant axis have unique associations to spirometric patterns, different imaging characteristics, biomarkers and causal mortality., Competing Interests: MHC and EKS have received grant support from GlaxoSmithKline. RPB has received consulting fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca, and GlaxoSmithKline. All other authors declare they have no conflicting interests., (JCOPDF © 2019.)

Rationale: We classified individuals into pulmonary disease subtypes based on 2 underlying pathophysiologic disease axes (airway-predominant and emphysema-predominant) and their increased mortality risk. Our next objective was to determine whether some subcomponents of these subtypes are additionally associated with unique patterns of Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) spirometry stage progression., Methods: After accounting for intra-individual measurement variability in spirometry measures between baseline (Phase 1) and the 5-year follow up (Phase 2) of the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene ® ) study, 4615 individuals had complete data that would characterize patterns of disease progression over 5 years (2033 non-Hispanic whites; 827 African Americans; 48% female). Individuals could express increased risk for mortality on one or both of the primary subtype axes (airway-predominant or emphysema-predominant) and thus they were further classified into 6 groups: high-risk airway-predominant disease only (APD-only), moderate-risk airway-predominant disease only (MR-APD-only), high-risk emphysema-predominant disease only (EPD-only), combined high-risk airway- and emphysema-predominant disease (combined APD-EPD), combined moderate-risk airway- and emphysema-predominant disease (combined MR-APD-EPD), and no high-risk pulmonary subtype. Outcomes were dichotomized for GOLD spirometry stage progression from Phase 1 to Phase 2. Logistic regression of the progression outcomes on the pulmonary subtypes were adjusted for age, sex, race, and change in smoking status., Results: The MR-APD-only group was associated with conversion from GOLD 0 to preserved ratio-impaired spirometry (PRISm) status (odds ratio [OR] 11.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.7-22.1) and GOLD 0 to GOLD 2-4 (OR 6.0, 95% CI 2.0-18.0). The EPD-only group was associated with conversion from GOLD 0 to GOLD 1 (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.6), and GOLD 1 to GOLD 2-4 (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.0-6.9). Conversion between PRISm and GOLD 2-4 (31%-38%) occurred in both the APD-only and the MR-APD-only groups., Conclusion: Differential conversion occurs from GOLD 0 to PRISm and GOLD 0 to GOLD 1 based on groups expressing airway-predominant disease or emphysema-predominant disease independently or in combination. Airway-predominant and emphysema-predominant subtypes are highly important in determining patterns of early disease progression., Competing Interests: EKS has received grant and travel support from GlaxoSmithKline. All other authors declare they have no conflicting interests., (JCOPDF © 2019.)

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Present-day diagnostic criteria are largely based solely on spirometric criteria. Accumulating evidence has identified a substantial number of individuals without spirometric evidence of COPD who suffer from respiratory symptoms and/or increased morbidity and mortality. There is a clear need for an expanded definition of COPD that is linked to physiologic, structural (computed tomography [CT]) and clinical evidence of disease. Using data from the COPD Genetic Epidemiology study (COPDGene ® ), we hypothesized that an integrated approach that includes environmental exposure, clinical symptoms, chest CT imaging and spirometry better defines disease and captures the likelihood of progression of respiratory obstruction and mortality., Methods: Four key disease characteristics - environmental exposure (cigarette smoking), clinical symptoms (dyspnea and/or chronic bronchitis), chest CT imaging abnormalities (emphysema, gas trapping and/or airway wall thickening), and abnormal spirometry - were evaluated in a group of 8784 current and former smokers who were participants in COPDGene ® Phase 1. Using these 4 disease characteristics, 8 categories of participants were identified and evaluated for odds of spirometric disease progression (FEV 1 > 350 ml loss over 5 years), and the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was examined., Results: Using smokers without symptoms, CT imaging abnormalities or airflow obstruction as the reference population, individuals were classified as Possible COPD, Probable COPD and Definite COPD. Current Global initiative for obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria would diagnose 4062 (46%) of the 8784 study participants with COPD. The proposed COPDGene ® 2019 diagnostic criteria would add an additional 3144 participants. Under the new criteria, 82% of the 8784 study participants would be diagnosed with Possible, Probable or Definite COPD. These COPD groups showed increased risk of disease progression and mortality. Mortality increased in patients as the number of their COPD characteristics increased, with a maximum hazard ratio for all cause-mortality of 5.18 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.15-6.48) in those with all 4 disease characteristics., Conclusions: A substantial portion of smokers with respiratory symptoms and imaging abnormalities do not manifest spirometric obstruction as defined by population normals. These individuals are at significant risk of death and spirometric disease progression. We propose to redefine the diagnosis of COPD through an integrated approach using environmental exposure, clinical symptoms, CT imaging and spirometric criteria. These expanded criteria offer the potential to stimulate both current and future interventions that could slow or halt disease progression in patients before disability or irreversible lung structural changes develop., Competing Interests: The COPDGene® study is funded by National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute grants U01 HL089897 and U01 HL089856. The COPDGene® study (NCT00608764) is also supported by the COPD Foundation through contributions made to an Industry Advisory Committee comprised of AstraZeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Pfizer, Siemens, and Sunovion. While some individual authors of this manuscript were employed by one of the listed funders at the time the work of this study was conducted, these employment relationships did not constitute undue influence by funders. These funders have had no official role in the collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data or design and conduct of the study. All authors have completed a Conflict of Interest form, disclosing any real or apparent financial relationships including receiving royalties, honoraria or fees for consulting, lectures, speakers’ bureaus, continuing education, medical advisory boards or expert testimony; receipt of grants; travel reimbursement; direct employment compensation. These disclosure forms have been filed with the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases: Journal of the COPD Foundation Editorial Office and are available for review, upon request, at COPDC@njhealth.org., (JCOPDF © 2019.)

Background: Chronic bronchitis (CB) increases risk of COPD exacerbations. We have shown that the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) CB definition identifies patients with a similar clinical phenotype as classically defined CB. Whether the SGRQ CB definition is a predictor of future COPD exacerbations is unknown., Methods: We analyzed 7,557 smokers with normal spirometry and Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage 1-4 COPD in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD study with longitudinal follow-up data on exacerbations. Subjects were divided into classic CB + or classic CB - , using the classic definition. In addition, subjects were divided into SGRQ CB + or SGRQ CB - . Exacerbation frequency and severe exacerbation frequency were determined in each group. Multivariable linear regressions were performed for exacerbation frequency with either classic CB or SGRQ CB and relevant covariates., Results: There were 1,434 classic CB + subjects and 2,290 SGRQ CB + subjects. The classic CB + group had a greater exacerbation frequency compared with the classic CB - group (0.69 ± 1.26 vs 0.36 ± 0.90 exacerbations per patient per year; P < .0001) and a greater severe exacerbation frequency (0.26 ± 0.74 vs 0.13 ± 0.46 severe exacerbations per patient per year; P < .0001). There were similar differences between the SGRQ CB + and SGRQ CB - groups. In multivariable analysis, both SGRQ CB and classic CB were independent predictors of exacerbation frequency, but SGRQ CB had a higher regression coefficient. In addition, SGRQ CB was an independent predictor of severe exacerbation frequency whereas classic CB was not., Conclusions: The SGRQ CB definition identified more subjects at risk for future exacerbations than the classic CB definition. SGRQ CB was at least a similar if not better predictor of future exacerbations than classic CB., (Copyright © 2019 American College of Chest Physicians. All rights reserved.)

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common and progressive disease that is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. For many years, knowledge of the genetic basis of COPD was limited to Mendelian syndromes, such as alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency and cutis laxa, caused by rare genetic variants. Over the past decade, the proliferation of genome-wide association studies, the accessibility of whole-genome sequencing, and the development of novel methods for analyzing genetic variation data have led to a substantial increase in the understanding of genetic variants that play a role in COPD susceptibility and COPD-related phenotypes. COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD), a multicenter, longitudinal study of over 10,000 current and former cigarette smokers, has been pivotal to these breakthroughs in understanding the genetic basis of COPD. To date, over 20 genetic loci have been convincingly associated with COPD affection status, with additional loci demonstrating association with COPD-related phenotypes such as emphysema, chronic bronchitis, and hypoxemia. In this review, we discuss the contributions of the COPDGene study to the discovery of these genetic associations as well as the ongoing genetic investigations of COPD subtypes, protein biomarkers, and post-genome-wide association study analysis.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an umbrella definition encompassing multiple disease processes. COPD heterogeneity has been described as distinct subgroups of individuals (subtypes) or as continuous measures of COPD variability (disease axes). There is little consensus on whether subtypes or disease axes are preferred, and the relative value of disease axes and subtypes for predicting COPD progression is unknown. Using a propensity score approach to learn disease axes from pairs of subtypes, we demonstrate that these disease axes predict prospective forced expiratory volume in 1 s decline and emphysema progression more accurately than the subtype pairs from which they were derived., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JC reports consulting fees and grant support from GSK and Novartis outside the submitted work. MC has received grant support from GSK. In the past 3 years, EKS received honoraria from Novartis for Continuing Medical Education Seminars and grant and travel support from GlaxoSmithKline., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)