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Background: Metamodeling may substantially reduce the computational expense of individual-level state transition simulation models (IL-STM) for calibration, uncertainty quantification, and health policy evaluation. However, because of the lack of guidance and readily available computer code, metamodels are still not widely used in health economics and public health. In this study, we provide guidance on how to choose a metamodel for uncertainty quantification. Methods: We built a simulation study to evaluate the prediction accuracy and computational expense of metamodels for uncertainty quantification using life-years gained (LYG) by treatment as the IL-STM outcome. We analyzed how metamodel accuracy changes with the characteristics of the simulation model using a linear model (LM), Gaussian process regression (GP), generalized additive models (GAMs), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Finally, we tested these metamodels in a case study consisting of a probabilistic analysis of a lung cancer IL-STM. Results: In a scenario with low uncertainty in model parameters (i.e., small confidence interval), sufficient numbers of simulated life histories, and simulation model runs, commonly used metamodels (LM, ANNs, GAMs, and GP) have similar, good accuracy, with errors smaller than 1% for predicting LYG. With a higher level of uncertainty in model parameters, the prediction accuracy of GP and ANN is superior to LM. In the case study, we found that in the worst case, the best metamodel had an error of about 2.1%. Conclusion: To obtain good prediction accuracy, in an efficient way, we recommend starting with LM, and if the resulting accuracy is insufficient, we recommend trying ANNs and eventually also GP regression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND : The European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) has developed a core curriculum for high quality optical diagnosis training for practice across Europe. The development of easy-to-measure competence standards for optical diagnosis can optimize clinical decision-making in endoscopy. This manuscript represents an official Position Statement of the ESGE aiming to define simple, safe, and easy-to-measure competence standards for endoscopists and artificial intelligence systems performing optical diagnosis of diminutive colorectal polyps (1 - 5 mm). METHODS : A panel of European experts in optical diagnosis participated in a modified Delphi process to reach consensus on Simple Optical Diagnosis Accuracy (SODA) competence standards for implementation of the optical diagnosis strategy for diminutive colorectal polyps. In order to assess the clinical benefits and harms of implementing optical diagnosis with different competence standards, a systematic literature search was performed. This was complemented with the results from a recently performed simulation study that provides guidance for setting alternative competence standards for optical diagnosis. Proposed competence standards were based on literature search and simulation study results. Competence standards were accepted if at least 80 % agreement was reached after a maximum of three voting rounds. RECOMMENDATION 1:  In order to implement the leave-in-situ strategy for diminutive colorectal lesions (1-5 mm), it is clinically acceptable if, during real-time colonoscopy, at least 90 % sensitivity and 80 % specificity is achieved for high confidence endoscopic characterization of colorectal neoplasia of 1-5 mm in the rectosigmoid. Histopathology is used as the gold standard.Level of agreement 95 %. RECOMMENDATION 2:  In order to implement the resect-and-discard strategy for diminutive colorectal lesions (1-5 mm), it is clinically acceptable if, during real-time colonoscopy, at least 80 % sensitivity and 80 % specificity is achieved for high confidence endoscopic characterization of colorectal neoplasia of 1-5 mm. Histopathology is used as the gold standard.Level of agreement 100 %. CONCLUSION : The developed SODA competence standards define diagnostic performance thresholds in relation to clinical consequences, for training and for use when auditing the optical diagnosis of diminutive colorectal polyps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To explore the potential value of consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) in stage II colon cancer treatment selection, we carried out an early cost-effectiveness assessment of a CMS-based strategy for adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: We used a Markov cohort model to evaluate three selection strategies: (i) the Dutch guideline strategy (MSS+pT4), (ii) the mutation-based strategy (MSS plus a BRAF and/or KRAS mutation or MSS plus pT4), and (iii) the CMS-based strategy (CMS4 or pT4). Outcomes were number of colon cancer deaths per 1,000 patients, total discounted costs per patient (pp), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) pp. The analyses were conducted from a Dutch societal perspective. The robustness of model predictions was assessed in sensitivity analyses. To evaluate the value of future research, we performed a value of information (VOI) analysis. Results: The Dutch guideline strategy resulted in 8.10 QALYs pp and total costs of €23,660 pp. The CMS-based and mutation-based strategies were more effective and more costly, with 8.12 and 8.13 QALYs pp and €24,643 and €24,542 pp, respectively. Assuming a threshold of €50,000/QALY, the mutation-based strategy was considered as the optimal strategy in an incremental analysis. However, the VOI analysis showed substantial decision uncertainty driven by the molecular markers (expected value of partial perfect information: €18M). Conclusions: On the basis of current evidence, our analyses suggest that the mutation-based selection strategy would be the best use of resources. However, the extensive decision uncertainty for the molecular markers does not allow selection of an optimal strategy at present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: After curative treatment of primary non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), patients undergo intensive surveillance with the aim to detect recurrences from the primary tumor or metachronous second primary lung cancer as early as possible and improve overall survival. However, the benefit of surveillance is debated. Available evidence is of low quality and conflicting. Microsimulation modeling facilitates the exploration of the impact of different surveillance strategies and provides insight into the cost-effectiveness of surveillance. Methods: A microsimulation model was used to simulate a range of computed tomography (CT)–based surveillance schedules, differing in the frequency and duration of CT surveillance. The impact on survival, quality-adjusted life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of each schedule was assessed. Results: Ten of 108 strategies formed the cost-effectiveness frontier; that is, these were the strategies with the optimal cost-health benefit balance. Per person, the discounted QALYs of these strategies varied between 5.72 and 5.81 y, and discounted costs varied between €9892 and €19,259. Below a willingness-to-pay threshold of €50,000/QALY, no scanning is the preferred option. For a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80,000/QALY, surveillance scanning every 2 y starting 1 y after curative treatment becomes the best option, with €11,860 discounted costs and 5.76 discounted QALYs per person. The European Society for Medical Oncology guideline strategy was more expensive and less effective than several other strategies. Conclusion: Model simulations suggest that limited CT surveillance scanning after the treatment of primary NSCLC is cost-effective, but the incremental health-benefit remains marginal. However, model simulations do suggest that the guideline strategy is not cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Population-based metastatic recurrence rates for patients diagnosed with nonmetastatic colorectal cancer cannot be estimated directly from population-based cancer registries because recurrence information is not reported. We derived population-based colorectal cancer recurrence rates using disease-specific survival data based on our understanding of the colorectal cancer recurrence-death process. Methods: We used a statistical continuous-time multistate survival model to derive population-based annual colorectal cancer recurrence rates from 6 months to 10 years after colorectal cancer diagnosis using relative survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The model was based on the assumption that, after 6 months of diagnosis, all colorectal cancer-related deaths occur only in patients who experience a metastatic recurrence first, and that the annual colorectal cancer-specific death rate among patients with recurrence was the same as in those diagnosed with de novo metastatic disease. We allowed recurrence rates to vary by post-diagnosis time, age, stage, and location for two diagnostic time periods. Results: In patients diagnosed in 1975-1984, annual recurrence rates 6 months to 5 years after diagnosis ranged from 0.054 to 0.060 in stage II colon cancer, 0.094 to 0.105 in stage II rectal cancer, and 0.146 to 0.177 in stage III colorectal cancer, depending on age. We found a statistically significant decrease in colorectal cancer recurrence among patients diagnosed in 1994-2003 compared with those diagnosed in 1975-1984 for 6 months to 5 years after diagnosis (hazard ratios between 0.43 and 0.70). Conclusions: We derived population-based annual recurrence rates for up to 10 years after diagnosis using relative survival data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Our aim was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of 3 months' adjuvant chemotherapy versus 6 months in high-risk (T4 stage + microsatellite stable) stage II colon cancer (CC) patients. Methods: Using the validated PATTERN Markov cohort model, which simulates the disease progression of stage II CC patients from diagnosis to death, we first evaluated a reference strategy in which high-risk patients were treated with chemotherapy for 6 months. In the second strategy, treatment duration was shortened to 3 months. Both strategies were evaluated for CAPOX (capecitabine plus oxaliplatin) and FOLFOX (fluorouracil, leucovorin and oxaliplatin). Based on trial data, we assumed that shortened treatment duration compared with a 6-month regimen was equally effective for CAPOX and less effective for FOLFOX. Adverse events were highest in the 6-month strategy. Analyses were conducted from a societal perspective using a lifelong time horizon. Outcomes were number of CC deaths per 1000 patients and total discounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient (pp). Incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) was calculated using a willingness-to-pay value of €50,000/QALY. Results: For CAPOX, the 6-month strategy resulted in 316 CC deaths per 1000 patients, 6.71 QALYs pp and total costs of €41,257 pp. The 3-month strategy resulted in an equal number of CC deaths, but higher QALYs (6.80 pp) and lower costs (€37,645 pp), leading to a iNMB of €8454 per person for 3 months versus 6 months. For FOLFOX, the 6-month strategy resulted in 316 CC deaths per 1000 patients, 6.71 QALYs pp and total costs of €47,135 pp. The 3-month strategy resulted in more CC deaths (393), lower QALYs (6.19 pp) and lower costs (€44,389 pp). An iNMB of −€23,189 was found for 3 months versus 6 months. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that 3 months' adjuvant chemotherapy should be considered as standard of care in high-risk stage II CC patients for CAPOX, but not for FOLFOX. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. Accurately identifying stage II CRC patients at risk for recurrence is an unmet clinical need. KCNQ1 was previously identified as a tumour suppressor gene and loss of expression was associated with poor survival in patients with CRC liver metastases. In this study the prognostic value of KCNQ1 in stage II and stage III colon cancer patients was examined.Methods: KCNQ1 mRNA expression was assessed in 90 stage II colon cancer patients (AMC-AJCCII-90) using microarray gene expression data. Subsequently, KCNQ1 protein expression was evaluated in an independent cohort of 386 stage II and stage III colon cancer patients by immunohistochemistry of tissue microarrays.Results: Low KCNQ1 mRNA expression in stage II microsatellite stable (MSS) colon cancers was associated with poor disease-free survival (DFS) (P=0.025). Loss of KCNQ1 protein expression from epithelial cells was strongly associated with poor DFS in stage II MSS (P<0.0001), stage III MSS (P=0.0001) and stage III microsatellite instable colon cancers (P=0.041). KCNQ1 seemed an independent prognostic value in addition to other high-risk parameters like angio-invasion, nodal stage and microsatellite instability-status.Conclusions: We conclude that KCNQ1 is a promising biomarker for prediction of disease recurrence and may aid stratification of patients with stage II MSS colon cancer for adjuvant chemotherapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) is rolling out 2-yearly immunochemical fecal occult blood test screening in people aged 50 to 74 years. This study aimed to evaluate the benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of extending the NBCSP to younger and/or older ages. Methods: A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate the fully rolled-out NBCSP and alternative strategies assuming screening starts at 40 or 45 years and/or ceases at 79 or 84 years given three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence (100%), (ii) high adherence (60%), and (ii) low adherence (40%, as currently achieved). Results: The current NBCSP will reduce colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) by 23% to 51% (36% to 74%) compared with no screening (range reflects participation); extending screening to younger or older ages would result in additional reductions of 2 to 6 (2 to 9) or 1 to 3 (3 to 7) percentage points, respectively. With an indicative willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/life-year saved (LYS), only screening from 50 to 74 years [incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER): A$2,984-5,981/LYS) or from 45 to 74 years (ICER: A$17,053-29,512/LYS) remained cost-effective in all participation scenarios. The number-needed-to-colonoscope to prevent a death over the lifetime of a cohort in the current NBCSP is 35 to 49. Starting screening at 45 years would increase colonoscopy demand for program-related colonoscopies by 3% to 14% and be associated with 55 to 170 additional colonoscopies per additional death prevented. Conclusions: Starting screening at 45 years could be cost-effective, but it would increase colonoscopy demand and would be associated with a less favorable incremental benefits-to-harms trade-off than screening from 50 to 74 years. Impact: The study underpins recently updated Australian colorectal cancer management guidelines that recommend that the NBCSP continues to offer bowel screening from 50 to 74 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Meaning-centered group psychotherapy for cancer survivors (MCGP-CS) improves meaning, psychological well-being, and mental adjustment to cancer and reduces psychological distress. This randomized controlled trial was conducted to investigate the cost-utility of MCGP-CS compared with supportive group psychotherapy (SGP) and care-as-usual (CAU).Methods: In total, 170 patients were randomized to MCGP-CS, SGP, or CAU. Intervention costs, direct medical and nonmedical costs, productivity losses, and health-related quality of life were measured until 6 months follow-up, using the TIC-P, PRODISQ, data from the hospital information system, and the EQ-5D. The cost-utility was calculated by comparing mean cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).Results: Mean total costs ranged from €4492 (MCGP-CS) to €5304 (CAU). Mean QALYs ranged .507 (CAU) to .540 (MCGP-CS). MCGP-CS had a probability of 74% to be both less costly and more effective than CAU, and 49% compared with SGP. Sensitivity analyses showed these findings are robust. If society is willing to pay €0 for one gained QALY, MCGP-CS has a 78% probability of being cost-effective compared with CAU. This increases to 85% and 92% at willingness-to-pay thresholds of €10 000 and €30 000, which are commonly accepted thresholds.Conclusions: MCGP-CS is highly likely a cost-effective intervention, meaning that there is a positive balance between the costs and gains of MCGP-CS, in comparison with SGP and CAU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: Glycaemic markers and fasting insulin are frequently measured outcomes of intervention studies. To extrapolate accurately the impact of interventions on the risk of diabetes incidence, we investigated the size and shape of the associations of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h post-load glucose (2hPG), HbA, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: The study population included 1349 participants aged 50-75 years without diabetes at baseline (1989) from a population-based cohort in Hoorn, the Netherlands. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined by the WHO 2011 criteria or known diabetes at follow-up. Logistic regression models were used to determine the associations of the glycaemic markers, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes. Restricted cubic spline logistic regressions were conducted to investigate the shape of the associations. Results: After a mean follow-up duration of 6.4 (SD 0.5) years, 152 participants developed diabetes (11.3%); the majority were screen detected by high FPG. In multivariate adjusted models, ORs (95% CI) for incident type 2 diabetes for the highest quintile in comparison with the lowest quintile were 9.0 (4.4, 18.5) for FPG, 6.1 (2.9, 12.7) for 2hPG, 3.8 (2.0, 7.2) for HbA, 1.9 (0.9, 3.6) for fasting insulin and 2.8 (1.4, 5.6) for HOMA-IR. The associations of FPG and HbA with incident diabetes were non-linear, rising more steeply at higher values. Conclusions/interpretation: FPG was most strongly associated with incident diabetes, followed by 2hPG, HbA, HOMA-IR and fasting insulin. The strong association with FPG is probably because FPG is the most frequent marker for diabetes diagnosis. Non-linearity of associations between glycaemic markers and incident type 2 diabetes should be taken into account when estimating future risk of type 2 diabetes based on glycaemic markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The fecal immunochemical test (FIT) for detecting hemoglobin is used widely for noninvasive colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, but its sensitivity leaves room for improvement. Objective: To identify novel protein biomarkers in stool that outperform or complement hemoglobin in detecting CRC and advanced adenomas. Design: Case–control study. Setting: Colonoscopy-controlled referral population from several centers. Participants: 315 stool samples from one series of 12 patients with CRC and 10 persons without colorectal neoplasia (control samples) and a second series of 81 patients with CRC, 40 with advanced adenomas, and 43 with nonadvanced adenomas, as well as 129 persons without colorectal neoplasia (control samples); 72 FIT samples from a third independent series of 14 patients with CRC, 16 with advanced adenomas, and 18 with nonadvanced adenomas, as well as 24 persons without colorectal neoplasia (control samples). Measurements: Stool samples were analyzed by mass spectrometry. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify protein combinations that differentiated CRC or advanced adenoma from control samples. Antibody-based assays for 4 selected proteins were done on FIT samples. Results: In total, 834 human proteins were identified, 29 of which were statistically significantly enriched in CRC versus control stool samples in both series. Combinations of 4 proteins reached sensitivities of 80% and 45% for detecting CRC and advanced adenomas, respectively, at 95% specificity, which was higher than that of hemoglobin alone (P < 0.001 and P = 0.003, respectively). Selected proteins could be measured in small sample volumes used in FIT-based screening programs and discriminated between CRC and control samples (P < 0.001). Limitation: Lack of availability of antibodies prohibited validation of the top protein combinations in FIT samples. Conclusion: Mass spectrometry of stool samples identified novel candidate protein biomarkers for CRC screening. Several protein combinations outperformed hemoglobin in discriminating CRC or advanced adenoma from control samples. Proof of concept that such proteins can be detected with antibody-based assays in small sample volumes indicates the potential of these biomarkers to be applied in population screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Optimizing radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy through advanced imaging and accelerated radiation schemes shows promising results in locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study compared the cost-effectiveness of positron emission tomography-computed tomography based isotoxic accelerated sequential chemo-radiation (SRT2) and concurrent chemo-radiation with daily low-dose cisplatin (CRT2) with standard sequential (SRT1) and concurrent chemo-radiation (CRT1). Methods: We used an externally validated mathematical model to simulate the four treatment strategies. The model was built using data from 200 NSCLC patients treated with curative sequential chemo-radiation. For concurrent strategies, data from a meta-analysis and a single study were included in the model. Costs, utilities, and resource use estimates were obtained from literature. Primary outcomes were the incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of each strategy. Scenario analyses were carried out to investigate the impact of uncertainty. Results: Total undiscounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for SRT1, CRT1, SRT2, and CRT2 were EUR 17,288, EUR 18,756, EUR 19,072, EUR 17,360 and QALYs 1.10, 1.15, 1.40, and 1.40, respectively. Compared with SRT1, the ICURs were EUR 38,024/QALY for CRT1, EUR 6,249/QALY for SRT2, and EUR 346/QALY for CRT2. CRT2 was highly cost-effective compared with SRT1. Moreover, CRT2 was more effective and less costly than CRT1 and SRT2. Therefore, these strategies were dominated by CRT2. Conclusion: Optimized sequential and concurrent chemo-radiation strategies are more effective and cost-effective than the current conventional sequential and concurrent strategies. Concurrent chemo-radiation with a daily low dose cisplatin regimen is the most cost-effective treatment option for locally advanced inoperable NSCLC patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Population-based screening to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC) death is effective, but the effectiveness of postpolypectomy surveillance is unclear.Objective: To evaluate the additional benefit in terms of cost-effectiveness of colonoscopy surveillance in a screening setting.Design: Microsimulation using the ASCCA (Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer) model.Data Sources: Dutch CRC screening program and published literature.Target Population: Asymptomatic persons aged 55 to 75 years without a prior CRC diagnosis.Time Horizon: Lifetime.Perspective: Health care payer.Intervention: Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening with colonoscopy surveillance performed according to the Dutch guideline was simulated. The comparator was no screening or surveillance. FIT screening without colonoscopy surveillance and the effect of extending surveillance intervals were also evaluated.Outcome Measures: CRC burden, colonoscopy demand, life-years, and costs.Results of Base-case Analysis: FIT screening without surveillance reduced CRC mortality by 50.4% compared with no screening or surveillance. Adding surveillance to FIT screening reduced mortality by an additional 1.7% to 52.1% but increased lifetime colonoscopy demand by 62% (from 335 to 543 colonoscopies per 1000 persons) at an additional cost of €68 000, for an increase of 0.9 life-year. Extending the surveillance intervals to 5 years reduced CRC mortality by 51.8% and increased colonoscopy demand by 42.7% compared with FIT screening without surveillance. In an incremental analysis, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for screening plus surveillance exceeded the Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold of €36 602 per life-year gained.Results of Sensitivity Analysis: When using a parameter set representing low colorectal lesion prevalence or when colonoscopy costs were halved or colorectal lesion incidence was doubled, screening plus surveillance became cost-effective compared with screening without surveillance.Limitation: Limited data on FIT performance and background CRC risk in the surveillance population.Conclusion: Adding surveillance to FIT screening is not cost-effective based on the Dutch ICER threshold and substantially increases colonoscopy demand. Extending surveillance intervals to 5 years would decrease colonoscopy demand without substantial loss of effectiveness.Primary Funding Source: Alpe d'HuZes, Dutch Cancer Society, and Stand Up To Cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Considerable variation exists in diagnostic tests used for local response evaluation after chemoradiation in patients with advanced oropharyngeal cancer. The yield of invasive examination under general anesthesia (EUA) with biopsies in all patients is low and it may induce substantial morbidity. We explored four response evaluation strategies to detect local residual disease in terms of diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness.Methods: We built a decision-analytic model using trial data of forty-six patients and scientific literature. We estimated for four strategies the proportion of correct diagnoses, costs concerning diagnostic instruments and the proportion of unnecessary EUA indications. Besides a reference strategy, i.e. EUA for all patients, we considered three imaging strategies consisting of 18FDG-PET-CT, diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI), or both 18FDG-PET-CT and DW-MRI followed by EUA after a positive test. The impact of uncertainty was assessed in sensitivity analyses.Results: The EUA strategy led to 96% correct diagnoses. Expected costs were €468 per patient whereas 89% of EUA indications were unnecessary. The DW-MRI strategy was the least costly strategy, but also led to the lowest proportion of correct diagnoses, i.e. 93%. The PET-CT strategy and combined imaging strategy were dominated by the EUA strategy due to respectively a smaller or equal proportion of correct diagnoses, at higher costs. However, the combination of PET-CT and DW-MRI had the highest sensitivity. All imaging strategies considerably reduced (unnecessary) EUA indications and its associated burden compared to the EUA strategy.Conclusions: Because the combined PET-CT and DW-MRI strategy costs only an additional €927 per patient, it is preferred over immediate EUA since it reaches the same diagnostic accuracy in detecting local residual disease while leading to substantially less unnecessary EUA indications. However, if healthcare resources are limited, DW-MRI is the strategy of choice because of lower costs while still providing a large reduction in unnecessary EUA indications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to predict the long-term colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, andcolonoscopydemand of the recently implemented Dutch colorectal cancer screening program. Methods: The Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal Cancer model was set up to simulate the Dutch screening program consisting of biennial fecal immunochemical testing combined with the new Dutch surveillance guidelines, between 2014 and 2044. The impact of screening and surveillance was evaluated under three sets of natural history assumptions differing in the contribution of the serrated pathway to colorectal cancer incidence. In sensitivity analyses, other assumptions concerning the serrated pathway were varied. Model-predicted outcomes were yearly colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, and colonoscopy demand per year. Results: Assuming an aging population, colorectal cancer incidence under 30 years of screening is predicted to decrease by 35% and 31% for a contribution of 0% and 30% of the serrated pathway to colorectal cancer, respectively. For colorectal cancer mortality, reductions are 47% and 45%. In 2044, 110,000 colonoscopies will be required annually assuming no contribution of the serrated pathway (27 per 1,000 individuals in the screening age range). Including the serrated pathway influences predicted screening effectiveness if serrated lesions are neither detected nor treated at colonoscopy, and/or if colorectal cancers arising from serrated lesions have substantially lower survival rates than those arising from adenomas. Conclusions: The Dutch screening program will markedly decrease colorectal cancer incidence and mortality but considerable colonoscopy resources will be required. Impact: Predictions of long-term screening effectiveness are preferably based on both pathways to colorectal cancer to transparently describe the impact of uncertainties regarding the serrated pathway on long-term predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) are commonly used in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Diagnostic accuracy of FIT differs between males and females. This so far unexplained difference could result in a dissimilarity in screening outcome between both sexes. The aim of this study is to compare sensitivity and specificity of a FIT between males and females, and study potential explanatory variables Methods: In this cross-sectional study, data were prospectively collected. 3,022 subjects performed a FIT prior to complete colonoscopy. Sensitivity, specificity, and ROC curves were compared for both sexes. Potential explanatory variables of the relation between sensitivity and sex were explored. Results: At all cut-off values, FIT sensitivity for CRC was higher (range 13-23%) and specificity was lower (range 2-4%) in males compared to females. At 75 ng/ml, sensitivity for CRC was 93% in males compared to 71% in females (p = 0.03), and specificity was 90% in males compared to 93% in females (p = <0.05). For advanced adenomas, males had a slightly higher sensitivity and lower specificity (not significant). At 75 ng/ml, sensitivity for advanced adenomas was 33% in males compared to 29% in females (p = 0.46), and specificity was 93% in males compared to 95% in females (p = 0.22). ROC curves were similar for both sexes, and equal combinations of sensitivity and specificity could be achieved by adjusting the cut-off values. For CRC, the difference in sensitivity could not be explained by age or location of the tumour. Conclusions: FIT has a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity for CRC in males than in females. Equal test characteristics can be achieved by allowing separate cut-off values for both sexes. Location and age do not explain the observed differences in sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Overlap of depressive and anxiety symptoms is supposedly more common in non-Western populations. This can lead to diagnostic uncertainity and undertreatment.Aims: The aim of this study was to assess cross-cultural differences regarding the comorbidity of anxiety and depressive disorders in a comparative population study.Methods: In a random urban population sample, stratified for descent, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, diagnostic interviews were held by bilingual interviewers. Diagnoses of anxiety and depressive disorders, based on the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, were obtained for 307 native Dutch subjects, 205 Turkish-Dutch subjects and 186 Moroccan-Dutch subjects.Results: The prevalence rate of comorbid anxiety and depressive disorders was higher in Turkish-Dutch (9.8 %) and Moroccan-Dutch (3.8%) subjects compared to native Dutch subjects (2.3%). However, this could be explained by differences in baseline prevalence rate and level of severity of the separate disorders. The onset order of anxiety disorders and depressive disorders was comparable in each ethnic group.Conclusions: The high prevalence rate of comorbid anxiety and depressive diorders in non-Western immigrants in the Netherlands necessitates assesssment and treatment of both disorders. There was no indication of a – culturally influenced – stronger overlap between anxiety and depressive disorders in non-Western immigrants in the Netherlands. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]