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In this study, we examine the volatility pattern of Australian housing prices over an extended time frame. A component-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (C-GARCH) model was ...

A lack of institutional investor involvement in the private rental residential sector is a structural weakness in the Australian housing rental market. To encourage institutional investment in the private rental market, several residential investment vehicles such as REITs have been introduced in the US and internationally. Despite Australian REITs being the second largest REIT market in the world, no residential REIT vehicle is available in Australia. Therefore, it is not only essential to assess the attitudes of Australian institutional investors regarding housing investment, but also residential investment vehicles. A survey of Australian institutional investors concerning residential property investment was conducted in August-September 2014. The results showed that the lack of well-structured residential investment vehicles and low returns were seen as critical issues in the residential property market. In addition, the most desirable features for an effective residential investment vehicle were being managed by an experienced manager, a diversified portfolio by location and delivering stable income returns with low debt. The implications of the findings are also discussed. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Seguin (1992) and the Gray’s (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and quality of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naïve and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that the contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64 %.

Purpose – Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has taken on increased stature and importance in recent years, as property investors have given an increased priority to environmental, social and corporate governance issues in their property investment decision‐making. The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of CSR factors and financial factors on the performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in Australia (A‐REITs) and assess whether these three CSR factors are separately priced by A‐REIT investors in uniquely adding value to A‐REIT investment performance.Design/methodology/approach – Using CSR rating factors and financial factors for the 16 A‐REITs in the ASX200, cross‐sectional multi‐factor models are employed to identify the separate pricing of these CSR factors in A‐REIT performance over 2005‐2010.Findings – The empirical results show that the environmental, social and corporate governance dimensions of CSR are not currently separately priced by A‐REIT investors, with ...

PurposeThe hedging effectiveness of real estate investment trust (REIT) futures as a critical issue in response to the global REIT market has been extremely volatile in recent years, however few studies have been placed on this area. This study aims to fill in this gap and examine the hedging effectiveness of Australian and Japanese REIT futures over 2002‐2010.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis of this study involves two stages. The first stage is to estimate optimal hedge ratios. A variety of hedging methods is employed, including a traditional hedge, an ordinary least squares (OLS) model and a bivariate GARCH model. Thereafter, the hedging effectiveness of these strategies is assessed individually.FindingsThe empirical results show REIT futures are effective hedging instruments in which a risk reduction of 37 per cent‐78 per cent (34 per cent‐52 per cent) for Australian (Japanese) REITs is evident. Importantly, the results also reveal that REIT futures outperform other hedging instruments in which a weaker risk reduction is found by stock, interest rate and foreign currency futures contracts. Moreover, the hedging effectiveness of REIT futures is dynamic and varies over time.Practical implicationsThe findings enable more informed and practical investment decision‐making regarding the role of REIT futures in risk management.Originality/valueThis paper, as far as the authors are aware, is the first study to offer empirical evidence of the risk‐reduction effectiveness of REIT futures. The hedging effectiveness of REIT futures is also compared to other hedging instruments for the first time.

The use of valuations in the major property indices has seen valuation-smoothing, leading to under-stated levels of property risk. De-smoothing the property returns has become the standard procedure to obtain more appropriate property risk estimates. The impact of valuation-smoothing on property risk and correlations are assessed for Australian commercial property over 1995–2009. The resulting de-smoothed property risk estimates are shown to need to be increased significantly to account for this impact of valuation-smoothing. The impact of valuation-smoothing on property risk is also shown to vary considerably over time and is influenced by the level of property valuation information available. The resulting impact of valuation-smoothing and more appropriate property risk estimates on the level of property in the mixed-asset portfolio is also assessed. Importantly, even after adjusting for valuation-smoothing, Australian commercial property is still seen to play a significant and important role in...

Australian superannuation funds have increased their allocations to the alternative assets in recent years; this includes private equity, infrastructure, hedge funds and commodities. This raises the issue of whether this increased allocation to these alternative assets impacts on the strategic role and allocation of direct property in the Australian mixed-asset portfolio, due to the potential increased competition between these assets. This paper assesses the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of direct property and various alternative assets over 19952009 and their role in optimal mixed-asset portfolios. While direct property is still seen to play a key role in the portfolio, direct property plays a less significant role in the portfolio when the alternative assets are included. In particular, Australian unlisted infrastructure and listed infrastructure are seen as key alternative assets across a significant portion of the portfolio risk spectrum. This is seen as validating the investment strategy of Australian superannuation funds who have significant exposure to the infrastructure sector.

This study examines the volatility series of housing supply in Australia. A Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model is employed to analyse the volatility series of Australian housing supply over the study period of 1974-2010. The results show the volatility of housing starts is negatively linked to housing starts, suggesting that higher uncertainty does lower housing starts. The results also reveal that the uncertainty of housing starts is also captured by the volatilities of interest rates and construction costs. Therefore policy makers should monitor and attempt to minimise the volatility of housing supply. These steps will enhance housing construction activities and increase the availability of housing supply to potential home buyers.

Although the relationships between house prices, property companies and stocks have received considerable attention in developed markets, little study has been undertaken in emerging markets. Therefore this study aims to investigate the linkages between the Malaysian housing market, property companies and stocks by using a vector-autoregressive model (VAR) over the study period 1999–2009. The results reveal a uni-directional relationship between housing prices, property companies and stocks. Specifically, property companies and general stocks Granger cause the housing market, whereas there is no evidence to support that property companies and stocks will incorporate the information spillover from the housing market. These findings offered some insights into the dynamic behaviour of housing prices, particularly in a developing country context.

Property derivatives as a financial tool have gained increasing attention by practitioners in recent years. However, there is relatively little evidence on the patterns of use and the property funds’ attitudes with respect to derivatives. Therefore, this study seeks to address this shortfall and aims to examine the application of derivatives by Australian property funds. A survey of Australian property fund managers was undertaken. The results show that different types of property funds have exhibited various patterns regarding the use of derivatives. The results also reveal that large property funds are more likely to use derivatives. The motivation factors (namely to reduce cash flows volatility and hedging currency risk) and risk factors (development of internal control and complicated accounting procedures) for using derivatives have also been identified. In addition, significant differences are found between the perceptions of derivative users and non-users. The findings have offered some insights into the knowledge base of property investors towards derivatives.

PurposePrevious studies on the Malaysian securitised real estate market have largely emphasised on performance analysis, whereas the importance of securitised real estate in asset allocation is largely ignored. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to examine the role of Malaysian property shares and real estate investment trusts (REITs) in a mixed‐asset portfolio from 1991 to 2006.Design/methodology/approachThe mean‐variance and downside risk optimisations were utilised to assess the role of REITs and property shares in a mixed‐asset portfolio allocation. More specifically, the portfolio diversification potential and return enhancement benefits for both assets were examined.FindingsThe results showed that property shares offer little diversification benefits or portfolio return enhancement, whereas the equally weighted REITs portfolio does provide some diversification benefits and return enhancements under the mean‐variance and downside risk frameworks. However, the benefits have diminished in recent years. Besides, the results also revealed that the equally‐ and value‐weighted REIT portfolios do behave differently.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has several important implications for investors. Importantly, investors should consider the inclusion of REITs rather than property shares in their portfolios.Originality/valueThis paper is one of few studies in emerging markets, although Malaysia was the first country to introduce REITs in Asia. Additionally, it could be the first attempt to assess the downside risk of Malaysian securitised real estate.

Executive Summary. This study aims to examine the volatility spillover in Australian REIT futures over the study period of 2004–2008. An Exponential-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterosce...

This study aims to examine the ability of downside beta in explaining the Australian direct property returns with addressing the smoothing issue. Utilising the quarterly IPD/PCA Australian property indices over 1995-2008, the results reveal that smoothed and unsmoothed downside betas are statistically distinguishable. The results also show that unsmoothed downside beta is positive and statistically significant related to Australian direct property returns, while smoothed downside beta exhibits a negative link with the returns, indicating that appraisal-smoothing has profound implications on the efficiency of downside beta. The results are robust after controlling for the different types of property and different smoothing parameters, confirming that a positive premium is required by direct property investors for compensating higher downside losses. These findings provide further insights into the pricing of valuation-based property indices.

Executive Summary. This study examines the importance of downside beta when seeking to explain variations in listed property trust (LPT) returns in Australia between 1993 and 2005. The results reve...

Extensive real estate studies have demonstrated the linkages between direct property and capital assets, particularly REITs by emphasising on the common movements in prices. However, the study of volatility spillover between these assets is relatively limited. This study aims to investigate the volatility linkages between Australian commercial property and capital assets by utilising generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) over the study period 1985-2006. The results reveal that direct commercial property is strongly influenced by LPTs and bonds. It is also shown that direct property is asymmetric to negative and positive news. These findings have provided additional insights into the knowledge base of real estate risk and portfolio management.

Chinese outward investment into real estate has increased tremendously in recent years. However, the growth of Chinese outward real estate investment has attracted little attention in the literature. This study examines the factors driving this growth and extent of which the established general theory of foreign direct investment can explain the Chinese outward real estate investment (FDIRE). Using the unique dataset of Chinese outward real estate investment collected from Real Capital Analytics, we quantify the main drivers of China’s outward FDIRE across a range of variables. The results show that both the established general theories and real estate specific factors together explain the Chinese outward real estate investment. Specifically, market size and cultural proximity have a positive influence on Chinese FDIRE outflows. In addition, transparency has an impact on Chinese foreign real estate investment via an interaction term with market size. Specifically, transparency only has an acute impact on Chinese outward real estate investment in larger markets with more opportunities. The implications of the findings have also been discussed

This paper examines the profitability of momentum trading strategies in Australian listed property trusts (LPTs). Monthly value-weighted momentum portfolios are formed using the monthly excess returns of LPTs for the period from 1990 to 2005. Overall the findings confirm that a momentum trading strategy in Australian LPTs is a profitable strategy. More specifically, momentum strategies are profitable after adjusting for variance and downside risk where the momentum returns substantially outperform the benchmark. An analysis using different study periods confirm the findings about momentum. The practical implication from this study is that investors can generate substantial abnormal returns by adopting a momentum trading strategy, particularly with a long strategy (i.e. winner portfolios).

A key ingredient for increased investor confidence in the European real estate markets has been the improved real estate market transparency in the European markets in recent years. Using the JLL global real estate transparency index, countries are classified as high transparency, transparent, semi-transparent, low transparency and opaque.This paper assesses changes in the real estate transparency for 33 European real estate markets over 2001-2014. This is also assessed in a regional and global real estate market context. Differences in real estate transparency between the developed and emerging European markets are also highlighted.

This study examines the inflation-hedging properties of European real estate stocks in developed and emerging markets over 1990 to 2011. The Fama and Schwert model and a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) regression were employed to study the inflation-hedging characteristics of European real estate stocks over the short run and long run. The empirical results show little inflationhedging ability of European real estate stocks over the short run. Over the long run, developed real estate stocks provide a positive inflation hedge against expected inflation, while no similar evidence is found in the emerging markets. The findings suggest that the inflation-hedging properties of real estate stocks are related to the institutional involvement in the real estate stock markets. The finding could have profound implications to institutional investors. First Publish Online: 20 Jun 2014

PurposeThis paper aims to identify and examine the determinants of downside systematic risk in Australian listed property trusts (LPTs).Design/methodology/approachCapital asset pricing model (CAPM) and lower partial moment‐CAPM (LPM‐CAPM) are employed to compute both systematic risk and downside systematic risk. The methodology of Patel and Olsen and Chaudhry et al. is adopted to examine the determinants of systematic risk and downside systematic risk.FindingsThe results confirm that systematic risk and downside systematic risk can be individually identified. There is little evidence to support the existence of linkages between systematic risk in Australian LPTs and financial/management structure determinants. On the other hand, downside systematic risk is directly related to the leverage/management structure of a LPT. The results are also robust after controlling for the LPTs' investment characteristics and varying target rates of return.Practical implicationsInvestors and real estate analysts should conscious with the higher returns from high leverage and internally managed LPTs. Although there is no evidence that these higher returns are related to higher systematic risk, there could be the compensation for higher downside systematic risk.Originality/valueThis study provides invaluable insights into the management of real estate risk in Australian LPTs with implications for REITs in other countries. Unlike previous studies of systematic risk in REITs or LPTs, this is the first study to assess downside systematic risk and explore the determinants of downside systematic risk in LPTs.

Risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects, which are mainly referred as public-private partnership (PPP) projects, is a challenging job due to the nature of incomplete contracting. Among the various risks that may eventually materialise, demand risk is one of the major challenges that PPPs face. Choosing a risk allocation strategy could be viewed as the process of deciding the proportion of risk management responsibility between public and private partners based on a series of characteristics of risk management service transaction in question. These characteristics are more or less related to the various uncertainty factors. In this study, various uncertainty factors have been examined in order to achieve efficient allocation of demand risk and minimise risk management-related costs in a long-term view. Critical uncertainty factors have been identified through an industry-wide survey in Australia. Future research directions are also set out.