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Binary black holes are the most abundant source of gravitational-wave observations. Gravitational-wave observatories in the next decade will require tremendous increases in the accuracy of numerical waveforms modeling binary black holes, compared to today's state of the art. One approach to achieving the required accuracy is using spectral-type methods that scale to many processors. Using the SpECTRE numerical-relativity code, we present the first simulations of a binary black hole inspiral, merger, and ringdown using discontinuous Galerkin methods. The efficiency of discontinuous Galerkin methods allows us to evolve the binary through ~18 orbits at reasonable computational cost. We then use SpECTRE's Cauchy Characteristic Evolution (CCE) code to extract the gravitational waves at future null infinity. The open-source nature of SpECTRE means this is the first time a spectral-type method for simulating binary black hole evolutions is available to the entire numerical-relativity community., Comment: 32 pages, 12 figures, 28 ancillary input files

Accurate estimation of project costs and durations remains a pivotal challenge in software engineering, directly impacting budgeting and resource management. Traditional estimation techniques, although widely utilized, often fall short due to their complexity and the dynamic nature of software development projects. This study introduces an innovative approach using Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance the accuracy and usability of project cost predictions. We explore the efficacy of LLMs against traditional methods and contemporary machine learning techniques, focusing on their potential to simplify the estimation process and provide higher accuracy. Our research is structured around critical inquiries into whether LLMs can outperform existing models, the ease of their integration into current practices, outperform traditional estimation, and why traditional methods still prevail in industry settings. By applying LLMs to a range of real-world datasets and comparing their performance to both state-of-the-art and conventional methods, this study aims to demonstrate that LLMs not only yield more accurate estimates but also offer a user-friendly alternative to complex predictive models, potentially transforming project management strategies within the software industry.

Generating high magnetic fields requires materials with not only high electric conductivity, but also good strength properties in order to withstand the necessarily strong Lorentz forces. A number of bi-metal composites, most notably Cu/Nb, are considered to be good candidates for this purpose. Here, we generalize our previous work on Cu/Nb in order to predict, from theory, the dependence of electric conductivity on the microstructure and volume fraction of the less conductive component for a number of other bi-metal composites. Together with information on strength properties (taken from previous literature), the conductivity information we provide in this work can help to identify new promising candidate materials (such as Cu/Nb, Cu/Ag, Cu/W, ...) for magnet applications with the highest achievable field strengths., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures; v2+v3 minor revision

Over the last two decades, spatial light modulators (SLMs) have revolutionised our ability to shape optical fields. They grant independent dynamic control over thousands of degrees-of-freedom within a single light beam. In this work we test a new type of SLM, known as a phase-only light modulator (PLM), that blends the high efficiency of liquid crystal SLMs with the fast switching rates of binary digital micro-mirror devices (DMDs). A PLM has a 2D mega-pixel array of micro-mirrors. The vertical height of each micro-mirror can be independently adjusted with 4-bit precision. Here we provide a concise tutorial on the operation and calibration of a PLM. We demonstrate arbitrary pattern projection, aberration correction, and control of light transport through complex media. We show high-speed wavefront shaping through a multimode optical fibre -- scanning over 2000 points at 1.44 kHz. We make available our custom high-speed PLM control software library developed in C++. As PLMs are based upon micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) technology, they are polarisation agnostic, and possess fundamental switching rate limitations equivalent to that of DMDs -- with operation at up to 10 kHz anticipated in the near future. We expect PLMs will find high-speed light shaping applications across a range of fields including adaptive optics, microscopy, optogenetics and quantum optics., Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures

The physical origin of the large cavities observed in transition disks is to date still unclear. Different physical mechanisms (e.g., a companion, dead zones, enhanced grain growth) produce disk cavities of different depth, and the expected spatial distribution of gas and solids in each mechanism is not the same. In this work, we analyze the multi-wavelength interferometric visibilities of dust continuum observations obtained with ALMA and VLA for six transition disks: CQTau, UXTau A, LkCa15, RXJ1615, SR24S, and DMTau, and calculate brightness radial profiles, where diverse emission morphology is revealed at different wavelengths. The multi-wavelength data is used to model the spectral energy distribution and compute constraints on the radial profile of the dust surface density, maximum grain size, and dust temperature in each disk. They are compared with the observational signatures expected from various physical mechanisms responsible for disk cavities. The observational signatures suggest that the cavities observed in the disks around UXTau A, LkCa15, and RXJ1615 could potentially originate from a dust trap created by a companion. Conversely, in the disks around CQTau, SR24S, DMTau, the origin of the cavity remains unclear, although it is compatible with a pressure bump and grain growth within the cavity.

We present galaxy MACS0416-Y1 at z$_{\rm{spec}} = 8.312$ as observed by the CAnadian NIRISS Unbiased Cluster Survey (CANUCS). MACS0416-Y1 has been shown to have extreme dust properties, thus, we study the physical properties and star formation histories of its resolved components. Overall, we find that MACS0416-Y1 is undergoing a star formation burst in three resolved clumps. The central clump is less massive compared to the other clumps and possibly formed in the merging process of the two larger clumps. Although the star formation history indicates an ongoing star formation burst, this gas-rich galaxy shows comparable star formation efficiency to cosmic noon galaxies. Using NIRSpec prism spectroscopy, we measure metallicity, $12 +\log\rm{(O/H)} = 7.76\pm0.03$ , ionisation parameter, $\log U = -2.48\pm0.03$, and electron temperature $\rm{T}_e = 18000\pm 4000 K $. The emission line ratios of the galaxy indicate an evolved Interstellar medium (ISM) similar to $z\sim2$ star-forming galaxies. Further, we find possible presence of ionisation from an active galactic nuclei (AGN) using emission line diagnostics, however, we do not detect broad line component in H$\beta$ emission line. As this gas-rich galaxy is undergoing a major merger, we hypothesise that the high dust temperature in MACS0416-Y1 is caused by the star formation burst or a possible narrow-line AGN.

Adapting the step size locally in the no-U-turn sampler (NUTS) is challenging because the step-size and path-length tuning parameters are interdependent. The determination of an optimal path length requires a predefined step size, while the ideal step size must account for errors along the selected path. Ensuring reversibility further complicates this tuning problem. In this paper, we present a method for locally adapting the step size in NUTS that is an instance of the Gibbs self-tuning (GIST) framework. Our approach guarantees reversibility with an acceptance probability that depends exclusively on the conditional distribution of the step size. We validate our step-size-adaptive NUTS method on Neal's funnel density and a high-dimensional normal distribution, demonstrating its effectiveness in challenging scenarios., Comment: for companion code, see https://github.com/bob-carpenter/adaptive-hmc

We introduce Imagen 3, a latent diffusion model that generates high quality images from text prompts. We describe our quality and responsibility evaluations. Imagen 3 is preferred over other state-of-the-art (SOTA) models at the time of evaluation. In addition, we discuss issues around safety and representation, as well as methods we used to minimize the potential harm of our models.

NASA's return to the Moon presents unparalleled opportunities to advance high-impact scientific capabilities. At the cutting edge of these possibilities are extremely high-resolution interferometric observations at visible and ultraviolet wavelengths. Such technology can resolve the surfaces of stars, explore the inner accretion disks of nascent stars and black holes, and eventually enable us to observe surface features and weather patterns on nearby exoplanets. We have been awarded Phase 1 support from NASA's Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) program to explore the feasibility of constructing a high-resolution, long-baseline UV/optical imaging interferometer on the lunar surface, in conjunction with the Artemis Program. A 1996 study comparing interferometers on the Moon versus free-flyers in space concluded that, without pre-existing lunar infrastructure, free-flyers were preferable. However, with the advent of the Artemis Program, it is now crucial to revisit the potential of building lunar interferometers. Our objective is to conduct a study with the same level of rigor applied to large baseline, free-flying interferometers during the 2003-2005 NASA Vision Missions Studies. This preparation is essential for timely and effective utilization of the forthcoming lunar infrastructure. In this paper, we highlight the groundbreaking potential of a lunar surface-based interferometer. This concept study will be a huge step forward to larger arrays on both the moon and free-flying in space, over a wide variety of wavelengths and science topics. Our Phase 1 study began in April 2024, and here we present a concise overview of our vision and the progress made so far., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation 2024 (Invited Paper)

MoonLITE (Lunar InTerferometry Explorer) is an Astrophysics Pioneers proposal to develop, build, fly, and operate the first separated-aperture optical interferometer in space, delivering sub-mas science results. MoonLITE will leverage the Pioneers opportunity for utilizing NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) to deliver an optical interferometer to the lunar surface, enabling unprecedented discovery power by combining high spatial resolution from optical interferometry with deep sensitivity from the stability of the lunar surface. Following landing, the CLPS-provided rover will deploy the pre-loaded MoonLITE outboard optical telescope 100 meters from the lander's inboard telescope, establishing a two-element interferometric observatory with a single deployment. MoonLITE will observe targets as faint as 17th magnitude in the visible, exceeding ground-based interferometric sensitivity by many magnitudes, and surpassing space-based optical systems resolution by a factor of 50 times. The capabilities of MoonLITE open a unique discovery space that includes direct size measurements of the smallest, coolest stars and substellar brown dwarfs; searches for close-in stellar companions orbiting exoplanet-hosting stars that could confound our understanding and characterization of the frequency of Earth-like planets; direct size measurements of young stellar objects and characterization of the terrestrial planet-forming regions of these young stars; measurements of the inner regions and binary fraction of active galactic nuclei; and a probe of the very nature of spacetime foam itself. A portion of the observing time will also be made available to the broader community via a guest observer program. MoonLITE takes advantage of the CLPS opportunity and delivers an unprecedented combination of sensitivity and angular resolution at the remarkably affordable cost point of Pioneers., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation 2024

Observers and practitioners of artificial intelligence (AI) have proposed an FDA-style licensing regime for the most advanced AI models, or 'frontier' models. In this paper, we explore the applicability of approval regulation -- that is, regulation of a product that combines experimental minima with government licensure conditioned partially or fully upon that experimentation -- to the regulation of frontier AI. There are a number of reasons to believe that approval regulation, simplistically applied, would be inapposite for frontier AI risks. Domains of weak fit include the difficulty of defining the regulated product, the presence of Knightian uncertainty or deep ambiguity about harms from AI, the potentially transmissible nature of risks, and distributed activities among actors involved in the AI lifecycle. We conclude by highlighting the role of policy learning and experimentation in regulatory development, describing how learning from other forms of AI regulation and improvements in evaluation and testing methods can help to overcome some of the challenges we identify., Comment: Accepted to Seventh AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society (2024)

We present a study connecting the physical properties of protostellar envelopes to the morphology of the envelope-scale magnetic field. We used the ALMA polarization observations of 61 young prtostars at 0.87 mm on $\sim400-3000$ au scales from the {\em B}-field Orion Protostellar Survey to infer the envelope-scale magnetic field, and used the dust emission to measure the envelope properties on comparable scales. We find that protostars showing standard-hourglass-field morphology tend to have larger masses and lower velocity dispersions in their envelopes, whereas systems with spiral-field morphologies have higher velocity dispersion. Combining with the disk properties taken from the Orion VLA/ALMA Nascent Disk and Multiplicity survey, we connect envelope properties to fragmentation. Our results show that the fragmentation level is positively correlated with the angle dispersion of the magnetic field, suggesting that the envelope fragmentation tends to be suppressed by the magnetic field. We also find that protostars exhibiting standard hourglass magnetic field structure tend to have a smaller disk and smaller angle dispersion of the magnetic field than other field configurations, specially the rotated hourglass, but also the spiral and others, suggesting a more effective magnetic braking in the standard hourglass morphology of magnetic fields. Nevertheless, significant misalignment between the magnetic field and outflow axes tends to reduce magnetic braking, leading to the formation of larger disks., Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures, accepted in ApJ

Detecting planet signatures in protoplanetary disks is fundamental to understanding how and where planets form. In this work, we report dust and gas observational hints of planet formation in the disk around 2MASS-J16120668-301027, as part of the ALMA Large Program "AGE-PRO: ALMA survey of Gas Evolution in Protoplanetary disks". The disk was imaged with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) at Band 6 (1.3 mm) in dust continuum emission and four molecular lines: $^{12}$CO(J=2-1), $^{13}$CO(J=2-1), C$^{18}$O(J=2-1), and H$_2$CO(J=3$_{(3,0)}$-2$_{(2,0)}$). Resolved observations of the dust continuum emission (angular resolution of $\sim 150$ mas, 20 au) show a ring-like structure with a peak at $0.57 ^{\prime \prime}$ (75 au), a deep gap with a minimum at 0.24$^{\prime \prime}$ (31 au), an inner disk, a bridge connecting the inner disk and the outer ring, along with a spiral arm structure, and a tentative detection (to $3\sigma$) of a compact emission at the center of the disk gap, with an estimated dust mass of $\sim 2.7-12.9$ Lunar masses. We also detected a kinematic kink (not coincident with any dust substructure) through several $^{12}$CO channel maps (angular resolution $\sim$ 200 mas, 30 au), located at a radius of $\sim 0.875^{\prime \prime}$ (115.6 au). After modeling the $^{12}$CO velocity rotation around the protostar, we identified a tentative rotating-like structure at the kink location with a geometry similar to that of the disk. We discuss potential explanations for the dust and gas substructures observed in the disk, and their potential connection to signatures of planet formation., Comment: 24 pages, 15 figures

It is widely accepted that cosmic rays are a plausible cause of DRAM errors in high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and various studies suggest that they could explain some aspects of the observed DRAM error behavior. However, this phenomenon is insufficiently studied in production environments. We analyze the correlations between cosmic rays and DRAM errors on two HPC clusters: a production supercomputer with server-class DDR3-1600 and a prototype with LPDDR3-1600 and no hardware error correction. Our error logs cover 2000 billion MB-hours for the MareNostrum 3 supercomputer and 135 million MB-hours for the Mont-Blanc prototype. Our analysis combines quantitative analysis, formal statistical methods and machine learning. We detect no indications that cosmic rays have any influence on the DRAM errors. To understand whether the findings are specific to systems under study, located at 100 meters above the sea level, the analysis should be repeated on other HPC clusters, especially the ones located on higher altitudes. Also, analysis can (and should) be applied to revisit and extend numerous previous studies which use cosmic rays as a hypothetical explanation for some aspects of the observed DRAM error behaviors., Comment: Accepted for publication in SBAC-PAD'24

Scaling to larger systems, with current levels of reliability, requires cost-effective methods to mitigate hardware failures. One of the main causes of hardware failure is an uncorrected error in memory, which terminates the current job and wastes all computation since the last checkpoint. This paper presents the first adaptive method for triggering uncorrected error mitigation. It uses a prediction approach that considers the likelihood of an uncorrected error and its current potential cost. The method is based on reinforcement learning, and the only user-defined parameters are the mitigation cost and whether the job can be restarted from a mitigation point. We evaluate our method using classical machine learning metrics together with a cost-benefit analysis, which compares the cost of mitigation actions with the benefits from mitigating some of the errors. On two years of production logs from the MareNostrum supercomputer, our method reduces lost compute time by 54% compared with no mitigation and is just 6% below the optimal Oracle method. All source code is open source., Comment: Published in HPDC'24

The generality and robustness of inference algorithms is critical to the success of widely used probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, PyMC, Pyro, and Turing.jl. When designing a new general-purpose inference algorithm, whether it involves Monte Carlo sampling or variational approximation, the fundamental problem arises in evaluating its accuracy and efficiency across a range of representative target models. To solve this problem, we propose posteriordb, a database of models and data sets defining target densities along with reference Monte Carlo draws. We further provide a guide to the best practices in using posteriordb for model evaluation and comparison. To provide a wide range of realistic target densities, posteriordb currently comprises 120 representative models and has been instrumental in developing several general inference algorithms.