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The expected goal provides a more representative measure of the team and player performance which also suit the low-scoring nature of football instead of score in modern football. The score of a match involves randomness and often may not represent the performance of the teams and players, therefore it has been popular to use the alternative statistics in recent years such as shots on target, ball possessions, and drills. To measure the probability of a shot being a goal by the expected goal, several features are used to train an expected goal model which is based on the event and tracking football data. The selection of these features, the size and date of the data, and the model which are used as the parameters that may affect the performance of the model. Using black-box machine learning models for increasing the predictive performance of the model decreases its interpretability that causes the loss of information that can be gathered from the model. This paper proposes an accurate expected goal model trained consisting of 315,430 shots from seven seasons between 2014-15 and 2020-21 of the top-five European football leagues. Moreover, this model is explained by using explainable artificial intelligence tool to obtain an explainable expected goal model for evaluating a team or player performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that demonstrates a practical application of an explainable artificial intelligence tool aggregated profiles to explain a group of observations on an accurate expected goal model for monitoring the team and player performance. Moreover, these methods can be generalized to other sports branches.

The increased predictive power of machine learning models comes at the cost of increased complexity and loss of interpretability, particularly in comparison to parametric statistical models. This trade-off has led to the emergence of eXplainable AI (XAI) which provides methods, such as local explanations (LEs) and local variable attributions (LVAs), to shed light on how a model use predictors to arrive at a prediction. These provide a point estimate of the linear variable importance in the vicinity of a single observation. However, LVAs tend not to effectively handle association between predictors. To understand how the interaction between predictors affects the variable importance estimate, we can convert LVAs into linear projections and use the radial tour. This is also useful for learning how a model has made a mistake, or the effect of outliers, or the clustering of observations. The approach is illustrated with examples from categorical (penguin species, chocolate types) and quantitative (soccer/football salaries, house prices) response models. The methods are implemented in the R package cheem, available on CRAN.

For many machine learning models, a choice of hyperparameters is a crucial step towards achieving high performance. Prevalent meta-learning approaches focus on obtaining good hyperparameters configurations with a limited computational budget for a completely new task based on the results obtained from the prior tasks. This paper proposes a new formulation of the tuning problem, called consolidated learning, more suited to practical challenges faced by model developers, in which a large number of predictive models are created on similar data sets. In such settings, we are interested in the total optimization time rather than tuning for a single task. We show that a carefully selected static portfolio of hyperparameters yields good results for anytime optimization, maintaining ease of use and implementation. Moreover, we point out how to construct such a portfolio for specific domains. The improvement in the optimization is possible due to more efficient transfer of hyperparameter configurations between similar tasks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach through an empirical study for XGBoost algorithm and the collection of predictive tasks extracted from the MIMIC-IV medical database; however, consolidated learning is applicable in many others fields.

The increased interest in deep learning applications, and their hard-to-detect biases result in the need to validate and explain complex models. However, current explanation methods are limited as far as both the explanation of the reasoning process and prediction results are concerned. They usually only show the location in the image that was important for model prediction. The lack of possibility to interact with explanations makes it difficult to verify and understand exactly how the model works. This creates a significant risk when using the model. The risk is compounded by the fact that explanations do not take into account the semantic meaning of the explained objects. To escape from the trap of static and meaningless explanations, we propose a tool and a process called LIMEcraft. LIMEcraft enhances the process of explanation by allowing a user to interactively select semantically consistent areas and thoroughly examine the prediction for the image instance in case of many image features. Experiments on several models show that our tool improves model safety by inspecting model fairness for image pieces that may indicate model bias. The code is available at: http://github.com/MI2DataLab/LIMEcraft

Machine learning methods can detect complex relationships between variables, but usually do not exploit domain knowledge. This is a limitation because in many scientific disciplines, such as systems biology, domain knowledge is available in the form of graphs or networks, and its use can improve model performance. We need network-based algorithms that are versatile and applicable in many research areas. In this work, we demonstrate subnetwork detection based on multi-modal node features using a novel Greedy Decision Forest with inherent interpretability. The latter will be a crucial factor to retain experts and gain their trust in such algorithms. To demonstrate a concrete application example, we focus on bioinformatics, systems biology and particularly biomedicine, but the presented methodology is applicable in many other domains as well. Systems biology is a good example of a field in which statistical data-driven machine learning enables the analysis of large amounts of multi-modal biomedical data. This is important to reach the future goal of precision medicine, where the complexity of patients is modeled on a system level to best tailor medical decisions, health practices and therapies to the individual patient. Our proposed approach can help to uncover disease-causing network modules from multi-omics data to better understand complex diseases such as cancer.

The growing number of AI applications, also for high-stake decisions, increases the interest in Explainable and Interpretable Machine Learning (XI-ML). This trend can be seen both in the increasing number of regulations and strategies for developing trustworthy AI and the growing number of scientific papers dedicated to this topic. To ensure the sustainable development of AI, it is essential to understand the dynamics of the impact of regulation on research papers as well as the impact of scientific discourse on AI-related policies. This paper introduces a novel framework for joint analysis of AI-related policy documents and eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) research papers. The collected documents are enriched with metadata and interconnections, using various NLP methods combined with a methodology inspired by Institutional Grammar. Based on the information extracted from collected documents, we showcase a series of analyses that help understand interactions, similarities, and differences between documents at different stages of institutionalization. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to use automatic language analysis tools to understand the dynamics between XI-ML methods and regulations. We believe that such a system contributes to better cooperation between XAI researchers and AI policymakers.

The increasing number of regulations and expectations of predictive machine learning models, such as so called right to explanation, has led to a large number of methods promising greater interpretability. High demand has led to a widespread adoption of XAI techniques like Shapley values, Partial Dependence profiles or permutational variable importance. However, we still do not know enough about their properties and how they manifest in the context in which explanations are created by analysts, reviewed by auditors, and interpreted by various stakeholders. This paper highlights a blind spot which, although critical, is often overlooked when monitoring and auditing machine learning models: the effect of the reference data on the explanation calculation. We discuss that many model explanations depend directly or indirectly on the choice of the referenced data distribution. We showcase examples where small changes in the distribution lead to drastic changes in the explanations, such as a change in trend or, alarmingly, a conclusion. Consequently, we postulate that obtaining robust and useful explanations always requires supporting them with a broader context.

Many methods have been developed to understand complex predictive models and high expectations are placed on post-hoc model explainability. It turns out that such explanations are not robust nor trustworthy, and they can be fooled. This paper presents techniques for attacking Partial Dependence (plots, profiles, PDP), which are among the most popular methods of explaining any predictive model trained on tabular data. We showcase that PD can be manipulated in an adversarial manner, which is alarming, especially in financial or medical applications where auditability became a must-have trait supporting black-box machine learning. The fooling is performed via poisoning the data to bend and shift explanations in the desired direction using genetic and gradient algorithms. We believe this to be the first work using a genetic algorithm for manipulating explanations, which is transferable as it generalizes both ways: in a model-agnostic and an explanation-agnostic manner., Comment: Accepted at ECML PKDD 2022

The relevance of the Key Information Extraction (KIE) task is increasingly important in natural language processing problems. But there are still only a few well-defined problems that serve as benchmarks for solutions in this area. To bridge this gap, we introduce two new datasets (Kleister NDA and Kleister Charity). They involve a mix of scanned and born-digital long formal English-language documents. In these datasets, an NLP system is expected to find or infer various types of entities by employing both textual and structural layout features. The Kleister Charity dataset consists of 2,788 annual financial reports of charity organizations, with 61,643 unique pages and 21,612 entities to extract. The Kleister NDA dataset has 540 Non-disclosure Agreements, with 3,229 unique pages and 2,160 entities to extract. We provide several state-of-the-art baseline systems from the KIE domain (Flair, BERT, RoBERTa, LayoutLM, LAMBERT), which show that our datasets pose a strong challenge to existing models. The best model achieved an 81.77% and an 83.57% F1-score on respectively the Kleister NDA and the Kleister Charity datasets. We share the datasets to encourage progress on more in-depth and complex information extraction tasks., Comment: accepted to ICDAR 2021

Rapid development of advanced modelling techniques gives an opportunity to develop tools that are more and more accurate. However as usually, everything comes with a price and in this case, the price to pay is to loose interpretability of a model while gaining on its accuracy and precision. For managers to control and effectively manage credit risk and for regulators to be convinced with model quality the price to pay is too high. In this paper, we show how to take credit scoring analytics in to the next level, namely we present comparison of various predictive models (logistic regression, logistic regression with weight of evidence transformations and modern artificial intelligence algorithms) and show that advanced tree based models give best results in prediction of client default. What is even more important and valuable we also show how to boost advanced models using techniques which allow to interpret them and made them more accessible for credit risk practitioners, resolving the crucial obstacle in widespread deployment of more complex, 'black box' models like random forests, gradient boosted or extreme gradient boosted trees. All this will be shown on the large dataset obtained from the Polish Credit Bureau to which all the banks and most of the lending companies in the country do report the credit files. In this paper the data from lending companies were used. The paper then compares state of the art best practices in credit risk modelling with new advanced modern statistical tools boosted by the latest developments in the field of interpretability and explainability of artificial intelligence algorithms. We believe that this is a valuable contribution when it comes to presentation of different modelling tools but what is even more important it is showing which methods might be used to get insight and understanding of AI methods in credit risk context.

One of the key elements of explanatory analysis of a predictive model is to assess the importance of individual variables. Rapid development of the area of predictive model exploration (also called explainable artificial intelligence or interpretable machine learning) has led to the popularization of methods for local (instance level) and global (dataset level) methods, such as Permutational Variable Importance, Shapley Values (SHAP), Local Interpretable Model Explanations (LIME), Break Down and so on. However, these methods do not use information about the correlation between features which significantly reduce the explainability of the model behaviour. In this work, we propose new methods to support model analysis by exploiting the information about the correlation between variables. The dataset level aspect importance measure is inspired by the block permutations procedure, while the instance level aspect importance measure is inspired by the LIME method. We show how to analyze groups of variables (aspects) both when they are proposed by the user and when they should be determined automatically based on the hierarchical structure of correlations between variables. Additionally, we present the new type of model visualisation, triplot, which exploits a hierarchical structure of variable grouping to produce a high information density model visualisation. This visualisation provides a consistent illustration for either local or global model and data exploration. We also show an example of real-world data with 5k instances and 37 features in which a significant correlation between variables affects the interpretation of the effect of variable importance. The proposed method is, to our knowledge, the first to allow direct use of the correlation between variables in exploratory model analysis.

Machine learning decision systems are getting omnipresent in our lives. From dating apps to rating loan seekers, algorithms affect both our well-being and future. Typically, however, these systems are not infallible. Moreover, complex predictive models are really eager to learn social biases present in historical data that can lead to increasing discrimination. If we want to create models responsibly then we need tools for in-depth validation of models also from the perspective of potential discrimination. This article introduces an R package fairmodels that helps to validate fairness and eliminate bias in classification models in an easy and flexible fashion. The fairmodels package offers a model-agnostic approach to bias detection, visualization and mitigation. The implemented set of functions and fairness metrics enables model fairness validation from different perspectives. The package includes a series of methods for bias mitigation that aim to diminish the discrimination in the model. The package is designed not only to examine a single model, but also to facilitate comparisons between multiple models., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures

The increasing amount of available data, computing power, and the constant pursuit for higher performance results in the growing complexity of predictive models. Their black-box nature leads to opaqueness debt phenomenon inflicting increased risks of discrimination, lack of reproducibility, and deflated performance due to data drift. To manage these risks, good MLOps practices ask for better validation of model performance and fairness, higher explainability, and continuous monitoring. The necessity of deeper model transparency appears not only from scientific and social domains, but also emerging laws and regulations on artificial intelligence. To facilitate the development of responsible machine learning models, we showcase dalex, a Python package which implements the model-agnostic interface for interactive model exploration. It adopts the design crafted through the development of various tools for responsible machine learning; thus, it aims at the unification of the existing solutions. This library's source code and documentation are available under open license at https://python.drwhy.ai/., Comment: https://jmlr.org/papers/v22/20-1473.html

The sudden outbreak and uncontrolled spread of COVID-19 disease is one of the most important global problems today. In a short period of time, it has led to the development of many deep neural network models for COVID-19 detection with modules for explainability. In this work, we carry out a systematic analysis of various aspects of proposed models. Our analysis revealed numerous mistakes made at different stages of data acquisition, model development, and explanation construction. In this work, we overview the approaches proposed in the surveyed Machine Learning articles and indicate typical errors emerging from the lack of deep understanding of the radiography domain. We present the perspective of both: experts in the field - radiologists and deep learning engineers dealing with model explanations. The final result is a proposed checklist with the minimum conditions to be met by a reliable COVID-19 diagnostic model.

A major requirement for credit scoring models is to provide a maximally accurate risk prediction. Additionally, regulators demand these models to be transparent and auditable. Thus, in credit scoring, very simple predictive models such as logistic regression or decision trees are still widely used and the superior predictive power of modern machine learning algorithms cannot be fully leveraged. Significant potential is therefore missed, leading to higher reserves or more credit defaults. This paper works out different dimensions that have to be considered for making credit scoring models understandable and presents a framework for making ``black box'' machine learning models transparent, auditable and explainable. Following this framework, we present an overview of techniques, demonstrate how they can be applied in credit scoring and how results compare to the interpretability of score cards. A real world case study shows that a comparable degree of interpretability can be achieved while machine learning techniques keep their ability to improve predictive power.

The growing availability of data and computing power fuels the development of predictive models. In order to ensure the safe and effective functioning of such models, we need methods for exploration, debugging, and validation. New methods and tools for this purpose are being developed within the eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) subdomain of machine learning. In this work (1) we present the taxonomy of methods for model explanations, (2) we identify and compare 27 packages available in R to perform XAI analysis, (3) we present an example of an application of particular packages, (4) we acknowledge recent trends in XAI. The article is primarily devoted to the tools available in R, but since it is easy to integrate the Python code, we will also show examples for the most popular libraries from Python., Comment: 20 pages

Finding optimal hyperparameters for the machine learning algorithm can often significantly improve its performance. But how to choose them in a time-efficient way? In this paper we present the protocol of generating benchmark data describing the performance of different ML algorithms with different hyperparameter configurations. Data collected in this way is used to study the factors influencing the algorithm's performance. This collection was prepared for the purposes of the study presented in the EPP study. We tested algorithms performance on dense grid of hyperparameters. Tested datasets and hyperparameters were chosen before any algorithm has run and were not changed. This is a different approach than the one usually used in hyperparameter tuning, where the selection of candidate hyperparameters depends on the results obtained previously. However, such selection allows for systematic analysis of performance sensitivity from individual hyperparameters. This resulted in a comprehensive dataset of such benchmarks that we would like to share. We hope, that computed and collected result may be helpful for other researchers. This paper describes the way data was collected. Here you can find benchmarks of 7 popular machine learning algorithms on 39 OpenML datasets. The detailed data forming this benchmark are available at: https://www.kaggle.com/mi2datalab/mementoml.

Incomplete data are common in practical applications. Most predictive machine learning models do not handle missing values so they require some preprocessing. Although many algorithms are used for data imputation, we do not understand the impact of the different methods on the predictive models' performance. This paper is first that systematically evaluates the empirical effectiveness of data imputation algorithms for predictive models. The main contributions are (1) the recommendation of a general method for empirical benchmarking based on real-life classification tasks and the (2) comparative analysis of different imputation methods for a collection of data sets and a collection of ML algorithms.

Benchmarks for the evaluation of model performance play an important role in machine learning. However, there is no established way to describe and create new benchmarks. What is more, the most common benchmarks use performance measures that share several limitations. For example, the difference in performance for two models has no probabilistic interpretation, there is no reference point to indicate whether they represent a significant improvement, and it makes no sense to compare such differences between data sets. We introduce a new meta-score assessment named Elo-based Predictive Power (EPP) that is built on top of other performance measures and allows for interpretable comparisons of models. The differences in EPP scores have a probabilistic interpretation and can be directly compared between data sets, furthermore, the logistic regression-based design allows for an assessment of ranking fitness based on a deviance statistic. We prove the mathematical properties of EPP and support them with empirical results of a large scale benchmark on 30 classification data sets and a real-world benchmark for visual data. Additionally, we propose a Unified Benchmark Ontology that is used to give a uniform description of benchmarks., Comment: Author's pre-publication version of a 2022 Nature Machine Intelligence article. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1908.09213

The growing need for in-depth analysis of predictive models leads to a series of new methods for explaining their local and global properties. Which of these methods is the best? It turns out that this is an ill-posed question. One cannot sufficiently explain a black-box machine learning model using a single method that gives only one perspective. Isolated explanations are prone to misunderstanding, leading to wrong or simplistic reasoning. This problem is known as the Rashomon effect and refers to diverse, even contradictory, interpretations of the same phenomenon. Surprisingly, most methods developed for explainable and responsible machine learning focus on a single-aspect of the model behavior. In contrast, we showcase the problem of explainability as an interactive and sequential analysis of a model. This paper proposes how different Explanatory Model Analysis (EMA) methods complement each other and discusses why it is essential to juxtapose them. The introduced process of Interactive EMA (IEMA) derives from the algorithmic side of explainable machine learning and aims to embrace ideas developed in cognitive sciences. We formalize the grammar of IEMA to describe potential human-model dialogues. It is implemented in a widely used human-centered open-source software framework that adopts interactivity, customizability and automation as its main traits. We conduct a user study to evaluate the usefulness of IEMA, which indicates that an interactive sequential analysis of a model increases the performance and confidence of human decision making., Comment: 35 pages, 17 figures, 8 tables

State-of-the-art solutions for Natural Language Processing (NLP) are able to capture a broad range of contexts, like the sentence-level context or document-level context for short documents. But these solutions are still struggling when it comes to longer, real-world documents with the information encoded in the spatial structure of the document, such as page elements like tables, forms, headers, openings or footers; complex page layout or presence of multiple pages. To encourage progress on deeper and more complex Information Extraction (IE) we introduce a new task (named Kleister) with two new datasets. Utilizing both textual and structural layout features, an NLP system must find the most important information, about various types of entities, in long formal documents. We propose Pipeline method as a text-only baseline with different Named Entity Recognition architectures (Flair, BERT, RoBERTa). Moreover, we checked the most popular PDF processing tools for text extraction (pdf2djvu, Tesseract and Textract) in order to analyze behavior of IE system in presence of errors introduced by these tools.

Complex black-box predictive models may have high performance, but lack of interpretability causes problems like lack of trust, lack of stability, sensitivity to concept drift. On the other hand, achieving satisfactory accuracy of interpretable models require more time-consuming work related to feature engineering. Can we train interpretable and accurate models, without timeless feature engineering? We propose a method that uses elastic black-boxes as surrogate models to create a simpler, less opaque, yet still accurate and interpretable glass-box models. New models are created on newly engineered features extracted with the help of a surrogate model. We supply the analysis by a large-scale benchmark on several tabular data sets from the OpenML database. There are two results 1) extracting information from complex models may improve the performance of linear models, 2) questioning a common myth that complex machine learning models outperform linear models., Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1902.11035

Meta-learning is a field that aims at discovering how different machine learning algorithms perform on a wide range of predictive tasks. Such knowledge speeds up the hyperparameter tuning or feature engineering. With the use of surrogate models various aspects of the predictive task such as meta-features, landmarker models e.t.c. are used to predict the expected performance. State of the art approaches are focused on searching for the best meta-model but do not explain how these different aspects contribute to its performance. However, to build a new generation of meta-models we need a deeper understanding of the importance and effect of meta-features on the model tunability. In this paper, we propose techniques developed for eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to examine and extract knowledge from black-box surrogate models. To our knowledge, this is the first paper that shows how post-hoc explainability can be used to improve the meta-learning.

Recently we see a rising number of methods in the field of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence. To our surprise, their development is driven by model developers rather than a study of needs for human end users. The analysis of needs, if done, takes the form of an A/B test rather than a study of open questions. To answer the question "What would a human operator like to ask the ML model?" we propose a conversational system explaining decisions of the predictive model. In this experiment, we developed a chatbot called dr_ant to talk about machine learning model trained to predict survival odds on Titanic. People can talk with dr_ant about different aspects of the model to understand the rationale behind its predictions. Having collected a corpus of 1000+ dialogues, we analyse the most common types of questions that users would like to ask. To our knowledge, it is the first study which uses a conversational system to collect the needs of human operators from the interactive and iterative dialogue explorations of a predictive model., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 1 table

Recent developments in Named Entity Recognition (NER) have resulted in better and better models. However, is there a glass ceiling? Do we know which types of errors are still hard or even impossible to correct? In this paper, we present a detailed analysis of the types of errors in state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) methods. Our study reveals the weak and strong points of the Stanford, CMU, FLAIR, ELMO and BERT models, as well as their shared limitations. We also introduce new techniques for improving annotation, for training processes and for checking a model's quality and stability. Presented results are based on the CoNLL 2003 data set for the English language. A new enriched semantic annotation of errors for this data set and new diagnostic data sets are attached in the supplementary materials., Comment: Accepted to CoNLL 2019

The most important part of model selection and hyperparameter tuning is the evaluation of model performance. The most popular measures, such as AUC, F1, ACC for binary classification, or RMSE, MAD for regression, or cross-entropy for multilabel classification share two common weaknesses. First is, that they are not on an interval scale. It means that the difference in performance for the two models has no direct interpretation. It makes no sense to compare such differences between datasets. Second is, that for k-fold cross-validation, the model performance is in most cases calculated as an average performance from particular folds, which neglects the information how stable is the performance for different folds. In this talk, we introduce a new EPP rating system for predictive models. We also demonstrate numerous advantages for this system, First, differences in EPP scores have probabilistic interpretation. Based on it we can assess the probability that one model will achieve better performance than another. Second, EPP scores can be directly compared between datasets. Third, they can be used for navigated hyperparameter tuning and model selection. Forth, we can create embeddings for datasets based on EPP scores., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures

Predictive modeling has an increasing number of applications in various fields. High demand for predictive models drives creation of tools that automate and support work of data scientist on the model development. To better understand what can be automated we need first a description of the model life-cycle. In this paper we propose a generic Model Development Process (MDP). This process is inspired by Rational Unified Process (RUP) which was designed for software development. There are other approached to process description, like CRISP DM or ASUM DM, in this paper we discuss similarities and differences between these methodologies. We believe that the proposed open standard for model development will facilitate creation of tools for automation of model training, testing and maintaining., Comment: 6 pages, process definition

Is it true that patients with similar conditions get similar diagnoses? In this paper we show NLP methods and a unique corpus of documents to validate this claim. We (1) introduce a method for representation of medical visits based on free-text descriptions recorded by doctors, (2) introduce a new method for clustering of patients' visits and (3) present an~application of the proposed method on a corpus of 100,000 visits. With the proposed method we obtained stable and separated segments of visits which were positively validated against final medical diagnoses. We show how the presented algorithm may be used to aid doctors during their practice.

The increasing availability of large but noisy data sets with a large number of heterogeneous variables leads to the increasing interest in the automation of common tasks for data analysis. The most time-consuming part of this process is the Exploratory Data Analysis, crucial for better domain understanding, data cleaning, data validation, and feature engineering. There is a growing number of libraries that attempt to automate some of the typical Exploratory Data Analysis tasks to make the search for new insights easier and faster. In this paper, we present a systematic review of existing tools for Automated Exploratory Data Analysis (autoEDA). We explore the features of twelve popular R packages to identify the parts of analysis that can be effectively automated with the current tools and to point out new directions for further autoEDA development.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)has received a great deal of attention recently. Explainability is being presented as a remedy for the distrust of complex and opaque models. Model agnostic methods such as LIME, SHAP, or Break Down promise instance-level interpretability for any complex machine learning model. But how faithful are these additive explanations? Can we rely on additive explanations for non-additive models? In this paper, we (1) examine the behavior of the most popular instance-level explanations under the presence of interactions, (2) introduce a new method that detects interactions for instance-level explanations, (3) perform a large scale benchmark to see how frequently additive explanations may be misleading., Comment: 15 pages

Complex black-box predictive models may have high accuracy, but opacity causes problems like lack of trust, lack of stability, sensitivity to concept drift. On the other hand, interpretable models require more work related to feature engineering, which is very time consuming. Can we train interpretable and accurate models, without timeless feature engineering? In this article, we show a method that uses elastic black-boxes as surrogate models to create a simpler, less opaque, yet still accurate and interpretable glass-box models. New models are created on newly engineered features extracted/learned with the help of a surrogate model. We show applications of this method for model level explanations and possible extensions for instance level explanations. We also present an example implementation in Python and benchmark this method on a number of tabular data sets., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures

Deep Learning NLP domain lacks procedures for the analysis of model robustness. In this paper we propose a framework which validates robustness of any Question Answering model through model explainers. We propose that a robust model should transgress the initial notion of semantic similarity induced by word embeddings to learn a more human-like understanding of meaning. We test this property by manipulating questions in two ways: swapping important question word for 1) its semantically correct synonym and 2) for word vector that is close in embedding space. We estimate importance of words in asked questions with Locally Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanations method (LIME). With these two steps we compare state-of-the-art Q&A models. We show that although accuracy of state-of-the-art models is high, they are very fragile to changes in the input. Moreover, we propose 2 adversarial training scenarios which raise model sensitivity to true synonyms by up to 7% accuracy measure. Our findings help to understand which models are more stable and how they can be improved. In addition, we have created and published a new dataset that may be used for validation of robustness of a Q&A model., Comment: Accepted to Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 2018 workshop IRASL

Machine learning models have spread to almost every area of life. They are successfully applied in biology, medicine, finance, physics, and other fields. With modern software it is easy to train even a~complex model that fits the training data and results in high accuracy on the test set. The problem arises when models fail confronted with real-world data. This paper describes methodology and tools for model-agnostic audit. Introduced techniques facilitate assessing and comparing the goodness of fit and performance of models. In~addition, they may be used for the analysis of the similarity of residuals and for identification of~outliers and influential observations. The examination is carried out by diagnostic scores and visual verification. Presented methods were implemented in the auditor package for R. Due to flexible and~consistent grammar, it is simple to validate models of any classes.

Datasets that boosted state-of-the-art solutions for Question Answering (QA) systems prove that it is possible to ask questions in natural language manner. However, users are still used to query-like systems where they type in keywords to search for answer. In this study we validate which parts of questions are essential for obtaining valid answer. In order to conclude that, we take advantage of LIME - a framework that explains prediction by local approximation. We find that grammar and natural language is disregarded by QA. State-of-the-art model can answer properly even if 'asked' only with a few words with high coefficients calculated with LIME. According to our knowledge, it is the first time that QA model is being explained by LIME., Comment: Accepted to Analyzing and interpreting neural networks for NLP workshop at EMNLP 2018

In this paper we present the results of an investigation of the importance of verbs in a deep learning QA system trained on SQuAD dataset. We show that main verbs in questions carry little influence on the decisions made by the system - in over 90% of researched cases swapping verbs for their antonyms did not change system decision. We track this phenomenon down to the insides of the net, analyzing the mechanism of self-attention and values contained in hidden layers of RNN. Finally, we recognize the characteristics of the SQuAD dataset as the source of the problem. Our work refers to the recently popular topic of adversarial examples in NLP, combined with investigating deep net structure., Comment: Accepted to Analyzing and interpreting neural networks for NLP workshop at EMNLP 2018

Predictive modeling is invaded by elastic, yet complex methods such as neural networks or ensembles (model stacking, boosting or bagging). Such methods are usually described by a large number of parameters or hyper parameters - a price that one needs to pay for elasticity. The very number of parameters makes models hard to understand. This paper describes a consistent collection of explainers for predictive models, a.k.a. black boxes. Each explainer is a technique for exploration of a black box model. Presented approaches are model-agnostic, what means that they extract useful information from any predictive method despite its internal structure. Each explainer is linked with a specific aspect of a model. Some are useful in decomposing predictions, some serve better in understanding performance, while others are useful in understanding importance and conditional responses of a particular variable. Every explainer presented in this paper works for a single model or for a collection of models. In the latter case, models can be compared against each other. Such comparison helps to find strengths and weaknesses of different approaches and gives additional possibilities for model validation. Presented explainers are implemented in the DALEX package for R. They are based on a uniform standardized grammar of model exploration which may be easily extended. The current implementation supports the most popular frameworks for classification and regression., Comment: 12 pages

Complex models are commonly used in predictive modeling. In this paper we present R packages that can be used to explain predictions from complex black box models and attribute parts of these predictions to input features. We introduce two new approaches and corresponding packages for such attribution, namely live and breakDown. We also compare their results with existing implementations of state of the art solutions, namely lime that implements Locally Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations and ShapleyR that implements Shapley values.

There are many statistical tests that verify the null hypothesis: the variable of interest has the same distribution among k-groups. But once the null hypothesis is rejected, how to present the structure of dissimilarity between groups? In this article, we introduce The Merging Path Plot - a methodology, and factorMerger - an R package, for exploration and visualization of k-group dissimilarities. Comparison of k-groups is one of the most important issues in exploratory analyses and it has zillions of applications. The classical solution is to test a~null hypothesis that observations from all groups come from the same distribution. If the global null hypothesis is rejected, a~more detailed analysis of differences among pairs of groups is performed. The traditional approach is to use pairwise post hoc tests in order to verify which groups differ significantly. However, this approach fails with a large number of groups in both interpretation and visualization layer. The~Merging Path Plot methodology solves this problem by using an easy-to-understand description of dissimilarity among groups based on Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) statistic., Comment: Submitted to Journal of Statistical Software

Everything that exists in R is an object [Chambers2016]. This article examines what would be possible if we kept copies of all R objects that have ever been created. Not only objects but also their properties, meta-data, relations with other objects and information about context in which they were created. We introduce archivist, an R package designed to improve the management of results of data analysis. Key functionalities of this package include: (i) management of local and remote repositories which contain R objects and their meta-data (objects' properties and relations between them); (ii) archiving R objects to repositories; (iii) sharing and retrieving objects (and it's pedigree) by their unique hooks; (iv) searching for objects with specific properties or relations to other objects; (v) verification of object's identity and context of it's creation. The presented archivist package extends, in a combination with packages such as knitr and Sweave, the reproducible research paradigm by creating new ways to retrieve and validate previously calculated objects. These new features give a variety of opportunities such as: sharing R objects within reports or articles; adding hooks to R objects in table or figure captions; interactive exploration of object repositories; caching function calls with their results; retrieving object's pedigree (information about how the object was created); automated tracking of the performance of considered models, restoring R libraries to the state in which object was archived., Comment: Submitted to JSS in 2015, conditionally accepted

We describe the simulation method of modelling the population evolution using Monte Carlo based on the Penna model. Individuals in the populations are represented by their diploid genomes. Genes expressed after the minimum reproduction age are under a weaker selection pressure and accumulate more mutations than those expressed before the minimum reproduction age. The generated gradient of defective genes determines the ageing of individuals and age-structured populations are very similar to the natural, sexually reproducing populations. The genetic structure of a population depends on the way how the random death affects the population. The improvement of the medical care and healthier life styles are responsible for the increasing of the life expectancy of humans during the last century. Introducing a noise into the relations between the genotype, phenotype, and environment, it is possible to simulate some other effects, like the role of immunological systems and a mother care. One of the most interesting results was the evolution of sex chromosomes. Placing the male sex determinants on one chromosome of a pair of sex chromosomes is enough to condemn it for shrinking if the population is panmictic (random-mating is assumed). If males are indispensable for taking care of their offspring and have to be faithful to their females, the male sex chromosome does not shrink., Comment: 35 pages, 19 figures