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The International Diabetes Federation estimates that 415 million adults worldwide now have diabetes and 318 million have impaired glucose tolerance. These numbers are expected to increase to 642 million and 482 million, respectively, by 2040. This burgeoning pandemic places an enormous burden on countries worldwide, particularly resource-poor regions. Numerous landmark trials evaluating both intensive lifestyle modification and pharmacological interventions have persuasively demonstrated that type 2 diabetes can be prevented or its onset can be delayed in high-risk individuals with impaired glucose tolerance. However, key challenges remain, including how to scale up such approaches for widespread translation and implementation, how to select appropriately from various interventions and tailor them for different populations and settings, and how to ensure that preventive interventions yield clinically meaningful, cost-effective outcomes. In June 2015, a Diabetes Care Editors' Expert Forum convened to discuss these issues. This article, an outgrowth of the forum, begins with a summary of seminal prevention trials, followed by a discussion of considerations for selecting appropriate populations for intervention and the clinical implications of the various diagnostic criteria for prediabetes. The authors outline knowledge gaps in need of elucidation and explore a possible new avenue for securing regulatory approval of a prevention-related indication for metformin, as well as specific considerations for future pharmacological interventions to delay the onset of type 2 diabetes. They conclude with descriptions of some innovative, pragmatic translational initiatives already under way around the world.

Missense variants in KCNJ11 and ABCC8, which encode the KIR6.2 and SUR1 subunits of the β-cell KATP channel, have previously been implicated in type 2 diabetes, neonatal diabetes, and hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia of infancy (HHI). To determine whether variation in these genes affects risk for type 2 diabetes or increased birth weight as a consequence of fetal hyperinsulinemia in Pima Indians, missense and common noncoding variants were analyzed in individuals living in the Gila River Indian Community. A R1420H variant in SUR1 (ABCC8) was identified in 3.3% of the population (N = 7,710). R1420H carriers had higher mean birth weights and a twofold increased risk for type 2 diabetes with a 7-year earlier onset age despite being leaner than noncarriers. One individual homozygous for R1420H was identified; retrospective review of his medical records was consistent with HHI and a diagnosis of diabetes at age 3.5 years. In vitro studies showed that the R1420H substitution decreases KATP channel activity. Identification of this loss-of-function variant in ABCC8 with a carrier frequency of 3.3% affects clinical care as homozygous inheritance and potential HHI will occur in 1/3,600 births in this American Indian population., (© 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.)

Objective: The global epidemics of type 2 diabetes and obesity have been attributed to the interaction between lifestyle changes and genetic predisposition to these diseases. We compared the prevalences of type 2 diabetes and obesity in Mexican Pima Indians, presumed to have a high genetic predisposition to these diseases, to those in their non-Pima neighbors, both of whom over a 15-year period experienced a transition from a traditional to a more modern lifestyle., Research Design and Methods: Prevalence of diabetes, impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, and obesity in Mexican Pimas (n = 359) and non-Pima Mexicans (n = 251) were determined in 2010 using methods identical to those used in 1995., Results: During this 15-year period, age-adjusted diabetes prevalence was unchanged in Pima men (5.8% in 1995 vs. 6.1% in 2010) yet increased in non-Pima men from 0.0 to 8.6% (P < 0.05). Diabetes prevalence tended to increase in both Pima women (9.4 vs. 13.4%) and non-Pima women (4.8 vs. 9.5%). Age-adjusted prevalence of obesity increased significantly in all groups (6.6 vs. 15.7% in Pima men; 8.5 vs. 20.5% in non-Pima men; 18.9. vs 36.3% in Pima women; 29.5 vs. 42.9% in non-Pima women)., Conclusions: Type 2 diabetes prevalence increased between 1995 and 2010 in non-Pima men, and to a lesser degree in women of both groups, but it did not increase in Pima men. Prevalence of obesity increased among Pimas and non-Pimas of both sexes. These changes occurred concomitantly with an environmental transition from a traditional to a more modernized lifestyle., (© 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.)

Objective: Despite its growing prevalence in China, the extent to which diabetes leads to excess cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and all-cause mortality is unclear., Research Design and Methods: We compared death rates and causes of death among 630 people with newly diagnosed diabetes (NDD) and 519 with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) who, in 1986, were identified as a result of screening 110,660 adults aged 25-74 years for diabetes in Da Qing, China., Results: During 23 years of follow-up, 338 (56.5%) participants with NDD and 100 (20.3%) with NGT died. CVD was the predominant cause of death in those with diabetes (47.5% in men and 49.7% in women), almost half of which was due to stroke (52.3% in men and 42.3% in women). The age-standardized incidence of all-cause death was three times as high in those with NDD as in those with NGT with incidences (per 1,000 person-years) of 36.9 (95% CI 31.5-42.3) vs. 13.3 (10.2-16.5) in men (P < 0.0001) and 27.1 (22.9-31.4) vs. 9.2 (7.8-10.6) in women (P < 0.0001). The incidence of CVD deaths in men and women with NDD (17.5 [13.8-21.2] vs. 13.5 [10.5-16.5]) did not differ significantly. Significantly higher death rates attributable to renal disease and infection were also found in the NDD group., Conclusions: Diabetes is associated with a substantially increased risk of death in Chinese adults, especially from CVD, almost half of which is due to stroke., (© 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.)

Background: A growing number of serum filtration markers are associated with mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in adults. Whether β-trace protein (BTP) and β2-microglobulin (B2M) are associated with these outcomes in adults with type 2 diabetes is not known., Study Design: Longitudinal cohort study., Setting & Participants: 250 Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes (69% women; mean age, 42 years; mean diabetes duration, 11 years)., Predictors: Serum BTP, B2M, and glomerular filtration rate measured by iothalamate clearance (mGFR) or estimated using creatinine (eGFRcr) or cystatin C level (eGFRcys)., Outcomes & Measurements: Incident ESRD and all-cause mortality through December 2013. HRs were reported per interquartile range decrease of the inverse of BTP and B2M (1/BTP and 1/B2M) using Cox regression. Improvement in risk prediction with the addition of BTP or B2M level to established markers (eGFRcys with mGFR or eGFRcr) was evaluated using C statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement (RIDI)., Results: During a median follow-up of 14 years, 69 participants developed ESRD and 95 died. Both novel markers were associated with ESRD in multivariable models. BTP level remained statistically significant after further adjustment for mGFR (1/BTP, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.01-2.30]; 1/B2M, 1.54 [95% CI, 0.98-2.42]). B2M level was associated with mortality in multivariable models and after further adjustment for mGFR (HR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.38-3.26). The addition of B2M level to established markers increased the C statistic for mortality but only weakly when assessed by either continuous net reclassification improvement or RIDI; none was improved for ESRD by the addition of these markers., Limitations: Small sample size, single measurements of markers., Conclusions: In Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes, BTP and, to a lesser extent, B2M levels were associated with ESRD. B2M level was associated with mortality after adjustment for traditional risk factors and established filtration markers. Further studies are warranted to confirm whether inclusion of B2M level in a multimarker approach leads to improved risk prediction for mortality in this population., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Background: There is an increasing prevalence of young-onset diabetes, especially in developing areas. We compared the clinical outcomes and predictors for cardiovascular-renal events between Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes with young- or late-onset of disease diagnosed before or after the age of 40 years, respectively., Methods: The Hong Kong Diabetes Registry was established in 1995 as an ongoing quality improvement initiative with consecutive enrollment of diabetic patients from ambulatory settings for documentation of risk factors, microvascular and macrovascular complications, and clinical outcomes using a structured protocol., Results: In 9509 Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes with a median (interquartile range) follow-up period of 7.5 (3.9-10.8) years, 21.3% (n = 2066) had young-onset diabetes. Despite 20 years difference in age, patients with young-onset diabetes (mean age, 41.3 years) had a similar or worse risk profile than those with late-onset disease (mean age, 61.9 years). Compared with the patients with late-onset diabetes, those with young-onset diabetes had lower rates of cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease for the same disease duration but a higher cumulative incidence of clinical events at any given age. With the use of stepwise Cox proportional hazard analysis, patients with young-onset diabetes had higher risks for cardiovascular and renal events when adjusted by age, but no difference in risks than in the patients with late-onset diabetes when further adjusted by disease duration., Conclusions: Patients with young-onset diabetes had a similar or worse metabolic risk profile compared with those with late-onset disease. This group had higher risks for cardiovascular-renal complications at any given age, driven by longer disease duration., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Lifestyle interventions among people with impaired glucose tolerance reduce the incidence of diabetes, but their effect on all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality is unclear. We assessed the long-term effect of lifestyle intervention on long-term outcomes among adults with impaired glucose tolerance who participated in the Da Qing Diabetes Prevention Study., Methods: The study was a cluster randomised trial in which 33 clinics in Da Qing, China-serving 577 adults with impaired glucose tolerance-were randomised (1:1:1:1) to a control group or lifestyle intervention groups (diet or exercise or both). Patients were enrolled in 1986 and the intervention phase lasted for 6 years. In 2009, we followed up participants to assess the primary outcomes of cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, and incidence of diabetes in the intention-to-treat population., Findings: Of the 577 patients, 439 were assigned to the intervention group and 138 were assigned to the control group (one refused baseline examination). 542 (94%) of 576 participants had complete data for mortality and 568 (99%) contributed data to the analysis. 174 participants died during the 23 years of follow-up (121 in the intervention group vs 53 in the control group). Cumulative incidence of cardiovascular disease mortality was 11.9% (95% CI 8.8-15.0) in the intervention group versus 19.6% (12.9-26.3) in the control group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.96; p=0.033). All-cause mortality was 28.1% (95% CI 23.9-32.4) versus 38.4% (30.3-46.5; HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.51-0.99; p=0.049). Incidence of diabetes was 72.6% (68.4-76.8) versus 89.9% (84.9-94.9; HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.40-0.76; p=0.001)., Interpretation: A 6-year lifestyle intervention programme for Chinese people with impaired glucose tolerance can reduce incidence of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality and diabetes. These findings emphasise the long-term clinical benefits of lifestyle intervention for patients with impaired glucose tolerance and provide further justification for adoption of lifestyle interventions as public health measures to control the consequences of diabetes., Funding: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, WHO, the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Da Qing First Hospital., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To focus on the rationale and methods of the Maycoba Project., Methods: Study population included Mexican Pima Indians (MPI) and Blancos aged ≥20-years, living in the village of Maycoba and surrounding area. Surveys in 1995 and 2010 included a medical history, biochemical and anthropomet- ric measurements. Additionally, socio- economic, physical activity, and dietary interviews were conducted. The 2010 study incorporated investigations on type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity-associated genetic alleles and human-envi- ronment changes., Results: The study results are limited to demographic data and description of the eligible and ex- amined sample., Conclusions: This study may yield important information on T2D and obesity etiology in a traditional population exposed to environmental changes., Competing Interests: Statement The author(s) declare that they have no conflict interests.

Most genetic variants associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have been identified through genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in Europeans. The current study reports a GWAS for young-onset T2DM in American Indians. Participants were selected from a longitudinal study conducted in Pima Indians and included 278 cases with diabetes with onset before 25 years of age, 295 nondiabetic controls ≥45 years of age, and 267 siblings of cases or controls. Individuals were genotyped on a ∼1M single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array, resulting in 453,654 SNPs with minor allele frequency >0.05. SNPs were analyzed for association in cases and controls, and a family-based association test was conducted. Tag SNPs (n = 311) were selected for 499 SNPs associated with diabetes (P < 0.0005 in case-control analyses or P < 0.0003 in family-based analyses), and these SNPs were genotyped in up to 6,834 additional Pima Indians to assess replication. Rs1861612 in DNER was associated with T2DM (odds ratio = 1.29 per copy of the T allele; P = 6.6 × 10(-8), which represents genome-wide significance accounting for the number of effectively independent SNPs analyzed). Transfection studies in murine pancreatic β-cells suggested that DNER regulates expression of notch signaling pathway genes. These studies implicate DNER as a susceptibility gene for T2DM in American Indians.

Angiotensin receptor blockers are renoprotective in hypertensive azotemic patients with type 2 diabetes, but their efficacy in early diabetic kidney disease is uncertain. We performed a 6-year randomized clinical trial in 169 American Indians with type 2 diabetes and normoalbuminuria (albumin/creatinine ratio [ACR] <30 mg/g; n = 91) or microalbuminuria (ACR 30-299 mg/g; n = 78) at baseline. The primary outcome was decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) to ≤60 mL/min or to half the baseline value in subjects who entered with GFR <120 mL/min. Another outcome was differences in glomerular structure at end of treatment. Subjects received 100 mg losartan or placebo daily. GFR was measured annually; 111 subjects underwent kidney biopsies. Only nine subjects reached the GFR outcome, and the unadjusted hazard ratio (losartan vs. placebo) was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.12-1.99). Differences in mesangial fractional volume were not estimated in the combined albuminuria groups because of an interaction with treatment assignment. In separate analyses, mesangial fractional volume was lower in subjects treated with losartan in the microalbuminuria group (18.8 vs. 25.6%; P = 0.02), but not in the normoalbuminuria group (19.6 vs. 17.8%; P = 0.86). Treatment with losartan may preserve some features of kidney structure in American Indians with type 2 diabetes and microalbuminuria.

Context: Higher metabolic rates increase free radical formation, which may accelerate aging and lead to early mortality., Objective: Our objective was to determine whether higher metabolic rates measured by two different methods predict early natural mortality in humans., Design: Nondiabetic healthy Pima Indian volunteers (n = 652) were admitted to an inpatient unit for approximately 7 d as part of a longitudinal study of obesity and diabetes risk factors. Vital status of study participants was determined through December 31, 2006. Twenty-four-hour energy expenditure (24EE) was measured in 508 individuals, resting metabolic rate (RMR) was measured in 384 individuals, and 240 underwent both measurements on separate days. Data for 24EE were collected in a respiratory chamber between 1985 and 2006 with a mean (SD) follow-up time of 11.1 (6.5) yr and for RMR using an open-circuit respiratory hood system between 1982 and 2006 with a mean follow-up time of 15.4 (6.3) yr. Cox regression models were used to test the effect of EE on natural mortality, controlled for age, sex, and body weight., Results: In both groups, 27 natural deaths occurred during the study period. For each 100-kcal/24 h increase in EE, the risk of natural mortality increased by 1.29 (95% confidence interval = 1.00-1.66; P < 0.05) in the 24EE group and by 1.25 (95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.55; P < 0.05) in the RMR group, after adjustment for age, sex, and body weight in proportional hazard analyses., Conclusions: Higher metabolic rates as reflected by 24EE or RMR predict early natural mortality, indicating that higher energy turnover may accelerate aging in humans.

Aims/hypothesis: We determined the effects of 6 years of lifestyle intervention in persons with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) on the development of retinopathy, nephropathy and neuropathy over a 20 year period., Methods: In 1986, 577 adults with IGT from 33 clinics in Da Qing, China were randomly assigned by clinic to a control group or one of three lifestyle intervention groups (diet, exercise, and diet plus exercise). Active intervention was carried out from 1986 to 1992. In 2006 we conducted a 20 year follow-up study of the original participants to compare the incidence of microvascular complications in the combined intervention group vs the control group., Results: Follow-up information was obtained on 542 (94%) of the 577 original participants. The cumulative incidence of severe retinopathy was 9.2% in the combined intervention group and 16.2% in the control group (p = 0.03, log-rank test). After adjusting for clinic and age, the incidence of severe retinopathy was 47% lower in the intervention group than the control group (hazard rate ratio 0.53, 95% CI 0.29-0.99, p = 0.048). No significant differences were found in the incidence of severe nephropathy (hazard rate ratio 1.05, 95% CI 0.16-7.05, intervention vs control, p = 0.96) or in the prevalence of neuropathy (8.6% vs 9.1%, p = 0.89) among the 20 year survivors., Conclusions/interpretation: Lifestyle intervention for 6 years in IGT was associated with a 47% reduction in the incidence of severe, vision-threatening retinopathy over a 20 year interval, primarily due to the reduced incidence of diabetes in the intervention group. However, similar benefits were not seen for nephropathy or neuropathy.

Objective: We examined the effect of intrauterine diabetes exposure (IDE) on the incidence of diabetic end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes., Research Design and Methods: Individuals were followed from their first diabetic examination until December 2006, death, ESRD, or age of 45 years., Results: Among the 1,850 diabetic participants, 102 had IDE. ESRD developed in 57, 5 of whom had IDE. Cumulative incidence of ESRD by age 45 was 19.3% in participants with IDE and 5.1% in those without; the age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratio was 4.12 (95% CI 1.54-11.02). After additional adjustment for age at diabetes onset, ESRD incidence was similar in the two groups (incidence rate ratio 1.38, 95% CI 0.45-4.24)., Conclusions: IDE increases the age- and sex-adjusted incidence of ESRD fourfold in young adults with type 2 diabetes, mediated primarily by the earlier onset of type 2 diabetes in those with IDE.

Context: Insulin resistance is a major risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes in Pima Indians, a population with the highest prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the world. Their Mexican counterpart, living a traditional lifestyle in the mountains of Sonora, have at least 5 times less diabetes than the U.S. Pima Indians., Objective: We evaluated whether Mexican Pima Indians had lower insulin resistance than U.S. Pima Indians., Design and Patients: We compared fasting insulin and homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in 194 Mexican Pima Indians (100 females, 94 males) and 449 U.S. Pima Indians (246 females, 203 males) with normal glucose tolerance from a cross-sectional study. Adjusted differences of log-transformed outcomes (fasting insulin and HOMA-IR) between groups were evaluated using multiple linear regression models and paired t test in a matched subset., Results: Unadjusted fasting insulin and HOMA-IR were much lower in the Mexican Pima Indians than in their U.S. counterparts. After adjusting by obesity, age, and sex, mean (95% confidence interval) for fasting insulin was 6.22 (5.34-7.24) vs. 13.56 μU/ml (12.27-14.97) and for HOMA-IR 1.40 (1.20-1.64) vs. 3.07 (2.77-3.40), respectively, for Mexican Pima and U.S. Pima Indians. Results were confirmed in subset matched for age, sex, and body fat., Conclusion: Our results indicate that Mexican Pima Indians have lower insulin resistance in comparison with their genetically related U.S. counterparts, even after controlling for differences in obesity, age, and sex. This finding underscores the importance of lifestyle factors as protecting factors against insulin resistance in individuals with a high propensity to develop diabetes.

Objectives: Understanding why prolonged Bazett-corrected QT interval (QTc) is a risk factor for mortality is difficult, because QTc is positively correlated with heart rate. To optimally distinguish the effects of QT interval and heart rate on mortality, QT interval and heart rate were modeled separately and jointly in Pima Indians., Methods: The effects of QT and heart rate on all-cause and cause-specific mortality were assessed in the overall study population and according to the presence or absence of diabetes using multivariable time-dependent proportional hazards models., Results: Among 1488 nondiabetic and 990 diabetic subjects > or =25 years old, 81 nondiabetic and 149 diabetic subjects died during a median follow-up of 7.3 years. When included in the same regression model, QT and heart rate each predicted all-cause mortality [hazard ratios per standard deviation (SD) (95% confidence interval)=1.31 (1.10-1.57) and 1.57 (1.32-1.87) respectively]. In nondiabetic subjects, hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.54 (1.19-1.99) for QT and 1.86 (1.46-2.37) for heart rate. In diabetic subjects, hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were lower, 1.27 (1.00-1.62) for QT and 1.41 (1.12-1.78) for heart rate. In the overall study population, neither QT nor heart rate significantly predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality [hazard ratios=1.13 (0.77-1.64) and 1.46 (0.98-2.19)] when adjusted for each other. Heart rate unadjusted for QT, however, predicted CVD mortality [hazard ratio=1.34 (1.00-1.79)] in a separate model., Conclusions: QT prolongation and high heart rate both predict all-cause mortality in Pima Indians, but heart rate was consistently the stronger predictor of the two., (Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.)

Objective: To examine the prognostic significance of elevated albuminuria in youth with type 2 diabetes., Patients and Methods: Cross-sectional and prospective studies were conducted on Pima Indian youth aged 5 to 19 years at baseline who were examined between July 1, 1982, and December 31, 2007. Prevalence and sequential changes in the level of microalbuminuria (30 < or = albumin-to-creatinine ratio [ACR] < 300 mg/g) and macroalbuminuria (ACR > or = 300 mg/g) and incidence of macroalbuminuria were computed according to the presence or absence of type 2 diabetes., Results: The prevalence of microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria was 6.5% and 0.6% in the 3856 nondiabetic youth and 18.5% and 2.9% in the 103 youth with diabetes, respectively. One hundred forty-one of 187 (75.4%) nondiabetic youth, but only 1 of 14 (7.1%) diabetic youth with an elevated ACR (> or =30 mg/g) regressed to an undetectable or normal ACR (<30 mg/g) on subsequent examination. In a subset of 2666 youth with a median follow-up of 8.1 years, 36 nondiabetic and 30 diabetic youth with baseline ACRs of <300 mg/g developed macroalbuminuria. For a given ACR, the incidence of macroalbuminuria was 15.9-fold (95% confidence interval: 11.1-22.6) higher in the diabetic than in the nondiabetic youth., Conclusions: Elevated albuminuria is infrequent and largely transient in nondiabetic youth, but it is relatively frequent and largely persistent in those with diabetes. Microalbuminuria in youth with type 2 diabetes strongly predicts progression to macroalbuminuria, which supports annual screening for albuminuria.

Background: The effect of childhood risk factors for cardiovascular disease on adult mortality is poorly understood., Methods: In a cohort of 4857 American Indian children without diabetes (mean age, 11.3 years; 12,659 examinations) who were born between 1945 and 1984, we assessed whether body-mass index (BMI), glucose tolerance, and blood pressure and cholesterol levels predicted premature death. Risk factors were standardized according to sex and age. Proportional-hazards models were used to assess whether each risk factor was associated with time to death occurring before 55 years of age. Models were adjusted for baseline age, sex, birth cohort, and Pima or Tohono O'odham Indian heritage., Results: There were 166 deaths from endogenous causes (3.4% of the cohort) during a median follow-up period of 23.9 years. Rates of death from endogenous causes among children in the highest quartile of BMI were more than double those among children in the lowest BMI quartile (incidence-rate ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.46 to 3.62). Rates of death from endogenous causes among children in the highest quartile of glucose intolerance were 73% higher than those among children in the lowest quartile (incidence-rate ratio, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.74). No significant associations were seen between rates of death from endogenous or external causes and childhood cholesterol levels or systolic or diastolic blood-pressure levels on a continuous scale, although childhood hypertension was significantly associated with premature death from endogenous causes (incidence-rate ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.24)., Conclusions: Obesity, glucose intolerance, and hypertension in childhood were strongly associated with increased rates of premature death from endogenous causes in this population. In contrast, childhood hypercholesterolemia was not a major predictor of premature death from endogenous causes., (2010 Massachusetts Medical Society)

Objective: We examined secular trends in the frequency distribution of albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in subjects with type 2 diabetes in 1982-1988 and 2001-2006, two periods associated with major changes in the management of diabetes., Research Design and Methods: The cross-sectional study included Pima Indians > or =15 years old with type 2 diabetes and measures of serum creatinine and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratios (ACR). The continuous probability density distributions of ACR and eGFR were compared for the two time periods. eGFR was calculated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation., Results: The overall standardized distribution of ACR shifted toward lower values between time periods (P = 0.001), whereas the standardized distribution of eGFR did not (P = 0.45). In the first period, eGFR was <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) in 6.5% of the 837 subjects. Of these, 9.3% had normal ACR, 7.4% had microalbuminuria, and 83.3% had macroalbuminuria. In the second period, the prevalence of low eGFR was similar (6.6% of the 1,310 subjects). Among those with low eGFR, normal ACR prevalence doubled to 17.2%, microalbuminuria prevalence nearly tripled to 19.5%, and macroalbuminuria prevalence declined to 63.2%. Twice as many subjects in the second period received antihypertensive medicines and 30% more received hypoglycemic medicines than in the first period., Conclusions: The distribution of albuminuria changed significantly among diabetic Pima Indians over the past 20 years, as treatment with medicines to control hyperglycemia and hypertension increased. The distribution of eGFR, however, remained unchanged. Consequently, the frequency of chronic kidney disease characterized by normoalbuminuria and low eGFR doubled.

Context: A past history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) confers a very high risk of postpartum development of diabetes, particularly type 2 diabetes., Objective: The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) sought to identify individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and intervene in an effort to prevent or delay their progression to diabetes. This analysis examined the differences between women enrolled in DPP with and without a reported history of GDM., Design: The DPP was a randomized, controlled clinical trial., Setting: The study was a multicenter, National Institutes of Health-sponsored trial carried out at 27 centers including academic and Indian Health Services sites., Patients: A total of 2190 women were randomized into the DPP and provided information for past history of GDM. This analysis addressed the differences between those 350 women providing a past history of GDM and those 1416 women with a previous live birth but no history of GDM., Interventions: Subjects were randomized to either standard lifestyle and placebo or metformin therapy or to an intensive lifestyle intervention., Main Outcomes: The primary outcome was the time to development of diabetes ascertained by semiannual fasting plasma glucose and annual oral glucose tolerance testing. Assessments of insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity were also performed., Results: Whereas entering the study with similar glucose levels, women with a history of GDM randomized to placebo had a crude incidence rate of diabetes 71% higher than that of women without such a history. Among women reporting a history of GDM, both intensive lifestyle and metformin therapy reduced the incidence of diabetes by approximately 50% compared with the placebo group, whereas this reduction was 49 and 14%, respectively in parous women without GDM. These data suggest that metformin may be more effective in women with a GDM history as compared with those without., Conclusions: Progression to diabetes is more common in women with a history of GDM compared with those without GDM history despite equivalent degrees of IGT at baseline. Both intensive lifestyle and metformin are highly effective in delaying or preventing diabetes in women with IGT and a history of GDM.

Objective: To evaluate whether impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and/or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) are associated with increased risk of mortality and prevalent ischemic heart disease (IHD) and to analyze if the increased risk of death is dependent on subsequent development of diabetes in Pima Indians., Research Design and Methods: A total of 2,993 Pima Indians aged >or=35 years were included. Prevalent IHD, defined by major ischemic electrocardiogram changes, was evaluated according to the following glucose/diabetes categories: normal glucose regulation (NGR), IFG and/or IGT, and diabetic groups by duration. During a median follow-up of 10.4 years, 780 subjects died from natural causes and 156 of these died from IHD. Mortality was analyzed according to the same glucose/diabetes categories at baseline and then as time-dependent variables., Results: Only subjects with diabetes >or=15 years of duration have a higher prevalence of IHD (odds ratio 1.9 [95% CI 1.4-2.5]) relative to NGR. In baseline and time-dependent models, age- and sex-adjusted death rates from natural causes and from IHD were similar among the nondiabetic groups. Among diabetic subjects, natural mortality was higher in those with >or=15 years diabetes duration (death rate ratio [DRR] relative to NGR = 2.6 [95% CI 2.1-3.3]). IHD mortality was higher in subjects with long diabetes duration (DRR for diabetes 10-15 years = 3.8 [1.5-9.5]; DRR for diabetes >or=15 years = 8.6 [3.8-19.4]) in the time-dependent model., Conclusions: Natural and IHD mortality are not increased in Pima Indians with IFG and/or IGT. Only after the onset of diabetes do the rates of these events increase relative to NGR.

Objective: The rising prevalence of obesity and high prevalence of diabetes among Pima Indians suggest that the incidence of diabetes has risen over time. We examined trends in the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes among Pima Indians between 1965 and 2003., Research Design and Methods: Incidence rates were computed independently in three 13-year time periods in Pima Indians aged > or = 5 years. Diabetes was defined by the presence of at least one of two criteria: 1) 2-h plasma glucose concentration > or = 200 mg/dl (11.1 mmol/l) or 2) hypoglycemic treatment., Results: Among 8,236 subjects without diabetes at baseline, 1,005 incident cases occurred during follow-up. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates of diabetes were 25.3 cases/1,000 patient-years (95% CI 22.5-28.0) in 1965-1977, 22.9 cases/1,000 patient years (20.0-25.8) in 1978-1990, and 23.5 cases/1,000 patient years (20.5-26.5) in 1991-2003 (P = 0.3). The incidence rate in subjects aged 5-14 years was 5.7 (1.9-17.4) times as high in the last as in the first period, but the rate declined in those aged 25-34 years (incidence rate ratio 0.6 [0.4-0.8]). Sex-adjusted prevalence increased significantly over time only in those aged 5-24 years (P(trend) < 0.0001)., Conclusions: The overall incidence of diabetes among Pima Indians remained stable over the past four decades, with a significant rise occurring only in the youth.

The introduction of more efficacious treatments for diabetic kidney disease may slow its progression, but evidence for their effectiveness in populations is sparse. We examined trends in the incidence of clinical proteinuria, defined as a urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio >0.5 g/g, and diabetic end-stage renal disease (ESRD), defined as death from diabetic nephropathy or onset of dialysis, in Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes between 1967 and 2002. The study included 2189 diabetic subjects >/=25 years old. During follow-up, 366 incident cases of proteinuria occurred in the subset of 1715 subjects without proteinuria at baseline. The age-sex-adjusted incidence rate of proteinuria increased from 24.3 cases/1000 person-years (pyrs) (95% confidence interval (CI) 18.7-30.0) in 1967-1978 to 35.4 cases/1000 pyrs (95% CI 28.1-42.8) in 1979-1990 and 38.9 cases/1000 pyrs (95% CI 31.2-46.5) in 1991-2002 (P(trend)<0.0002). In each period, the age-sex-adjusted incidence of proteinuria increased with diabetes duration, but diabetes duration-specific incidence was stable throughout the study period (P=0.8). The age-sex-adjusted incidence of ESRD increased between 1967 and 1990 and declined thereafter. The incidence of proteinuria increased over 36 years in Pima Indians as the proportion of people with diabetes of long duration increased. On the other hand, the incidence of ESRD declined after 1990, coinciding with improved control of blood pressure, hyperglycemia, and perhaps other risk factors.

Objective: Type 2 diabetes and obesity have genetic and environmental determinants. We studied the effects of different environments on these diseases in Pima Indians in Mexico and the U.S., Research Design and Methods: Adult Pima-Indian and non-Pima populations in the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico were examined using oral glucose tolerance tests and assessments for obesity, physical activity, and other risk factors. Results were compared with those from Pima Indians in Arizona. Both Pima populations were typed for DNA polymorphisms to establish their genetic similarity., Results: The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the Mexican Pima Indians (6.9%) was less than one-fifth that in the U.S. Pima Indians (38%) and similar to that of non-Pima Mexicans (2.6%). The prevalence of obesity was similar in the Mexican Pima Indians (7% in men and 20% in women) and non-Pima Mexicans (9% in men and 27% in women) but was much lower than in the U.S. Pima Indians. Levels of physical activity were much higher in both Mexican groups than in the U.S. Pima Indians. The two Pima groups share considerable genetic similarity relative to other Native Americans., Conclusions: The much lower prevalence of type 2 diabetes and obesity in the Pima Indians in Mexico than in the U.S. indicates that even in populations genetically prone to these conditions, their development is determined mostly by environmental circumstances, thereby suggesting that type 2 diabetes is largely preventable. This study provides compelling evidence that changes in lifestyle associated with Westernization play a major role in the global epidemic of type 2 diabetes.

Context: The long-term outcome of persons with youth-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus has not been well described., Objective: To compare incidence of diabetic end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and mortality in Pima Indians with youth- and older-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus., Design, Setting, and Participants: Longitudinal population-based study conducted between 1965 and 2002 in Pima Indians from the state of Arizona. Participants were divided into 2 groups: (1) youth-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (onset <20 years of age) and (2) older-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (onset > or =20 - <55 years of age). Events and person-years of follow-up were stratified in a time-dependent fashion by decades of age. End-stage renal disease was defined as dialysis attributed to diabetic nephropathy or death from diabetic nephropathy., Main Outcome Measures: Incidence rate of diabetic ESRD and mortality between 25 and 55 years of age, according to age at onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus., Results: Among the 1856 diabetic participants, 96 had youth-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus. The age-sex-adjusted incidence of diabetic ESRD was 25.0 cases per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.7-43.1) in youth-onset diabetes mellitus and 5.4 cases per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 4.4-6.4) in older-onset diabetes mellitus (incidence rate ratio, 4.6; 95% CI, 2.2-9.8). Age-specific incidence rates were higher in participants with youth-onset diabetes mellitus at all ages. Between 25 and 55 years of age, the age-sex-adjusted death rate from natural causes was 15.4 deaths per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 0.2-30.5) in participants with youth-onset diabetes mellitus and 7.3 deaths per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 5.9-8.7) in individuals with older-onset diabetes mellitus (death rate ratio, 2.1; 95% CI, 0.8-5.7). Compared with nondiabetic participants, the death rate was 3.0 times as high in individuals with youth-onset diabetes mellitus (95% CI, 1.1-8.0) and 1.4 times as high in individuals with older-onset diabetes mellitus (95% CI, 1.1-1.8). In a subset of 1386 participants with complete data for all covariates who were observed from the onset of diabetes mellitus, the age at onset of diabetes mellitus was not associated with the incidence of ESRD (hazard ratio, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.9-1.2) after adjusting for sex, mean arterial pressure, body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), plasma glucose concentration, smoking, hypoglycemic medicines, and blood pressure medicines in a Cox proportional-hazards model., Conclusions: Early-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus is associated with substantially increased incidence of ESRD and mortality in middle age. The longer duration of diabetes mellitus by middle age in individuals diagnosed younger than age 20 years largely accounts for these outcomes.

Background: The association between electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities and deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and ischemic heart disease (IHD) has been reported in the general population, but there is little information regarding persons with type 2 diabetes., Methods: Minor and major ECG abnormalities were identified and classified according to the Minnesota Code in a longitudinal study of 1605 Pima Indians aged > or =35 years with type 2 diabetes. Underlying causes of death were determined by review of all available clinical records, autopsy reports, medical examiners' findings, and death certificates., Results: During a median follow-up of 14.1 years (range 0.1 to 33.8 years), there were 190 CVD deaths, 135 (71.1%) of which were attributable to IHD. The age-adjusted CVD death rates in men with none, minor, and major ischemic ECG abnormalities were 7.3, 12.2 and 27.8, and in women, 4.3, 4.8 and 12.5 per 1000 person-years, respectively. After adjustment for other co-variables in a multiple proportional hazards model, subjects with minor and major ischemic abnormalities on ECG had 1.22 (95% CI, 0.76-1.97) and 1.83 (95% CI, 1.21-2.76) times the CVD death rate, and 1.32 (95% CI, 0.70-2.50) and 2.12 (95% CI, 1.26-3.57) times the IHD death rate of those with no ischemic ECG abnormalities, respectively., Conclusions: The CVD and IHD death rates were higher in men and in subjects with major ischemic ECG abnormalities. Major ischemic abnormalities on ECG predicted death after accounting for other cardiovascular risk factors, including proteinuria.

Background: Secular trends over 34 years (1965-1998) in overall and cause-specific mortality were examined in 4,623 Pima Indians >or=35 years old., Methods: The underlying and contributing causes of the 1,363 deaths were determined from a review of all available clinical records; 540 of the deaths occurred in the 2,528 nondiabetic participants and 823 in the 2,095 participants who had diabetes during all or part of the study period. Age/sex-adjusted death rates were calculated across four 8.5-year time intervals., Results: In the nondiabetic participants, the rate of death from natural causes declined gradually over time (20.4, 17.3, 17.3, and 16.0 deaths per 1,000 persons/year; P=.11); deaths from ischemic heart disease (IHD) were uncommon (n=22), and the rate did not change appreciably, remaining as the fifth leading natural cause of death. In the diabetic participants, the rate of death from natural causes was unchanged over time, but the rate of death from IHD (n=141) increased nearly twofold (3.3, 4.2, 6.4, and 6.4 deaths per 1,000 persons/year; P<.01), becoming the leading cause of death in the third and fourth time intervals., Conclusions: The rate of death from IHD remained stable in nondiabetic Pima Indians but increased among those with diabetes. This finding suggests that, in the absence of diabetes, the underlying susceptibility to IHD in this population has not changed.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) not only reflects target organ injury in systemic vascular disease in the general population and in association with diabetes, hypertension, and smoking, but it is recognized as one of the major risk factors in the pathogenesis and outcome of cardiovascular disease. Recent surveys have revealed that the prevalence of CKD, particularly the hidden mild form (mildly elevated levels of serum creatinine or urinary albumin excretion), is surprisingly high in the general population. In recent years, the global epidemic of type 2 diabetes has led to an alarming increase in the number of patients with CKD. Most patients with CKD (over 50 million individuals worldwide) succumb to cardiovascular events, while each year over 1 million develop end-stage renal failure, which requires costly treatment and in many countries of the world, unaffordable renal replacement therapy by chronic dialysis or renal transplantation. Alarmed by the immense challenge to human morbidity and the economic burden of CKD and ensuing systemic cardiovascular disease, the International Society of Nephrology convened a multidisciplinary group of expert physicians and public health leaders from around the world to develop strategies to delay and avert this bleak future by effective prevention of CKD based on awareness, early detection, and effective treatment.

Background: We examined the effect of kidney disease (KD) on mortality in nondiabetic and diabetic Pima Indians aged > or = 45 years old., Methods: Deaths and person-years of follow-up were stratified in a time-dependent fashion into categories of (1) no proteinuria and normal serum creatinine (SCr); (2) proteinuria and normal SCr; (3) high SCr [SCr > or = 133 micromol/L (1.5 mg/dL) in men, > or = 124 micromol/L (1.4 mg/dL) in women] but not on renal replacement therapy (RRT); or (4) RRT., Results: Among 1993 subjects, 55.8% had type 2 diabetes at baseline. Overall death rates increased with declining kidney function in both the nondiabetic and diabetic subjects (P < 0.0001). Death rates were similar in nondiabetic and diabetic subjects with comparable levels of kidney function, although the number of deaths among nondiabetic subjects with advanced KD was small. Infections and malignancy were the leading causes of death in nondiabetic subjects with KD. Among diabetic subjects, overall mortality increased with diabetes duration (P = 0.0001) and was highest in those on RRT (P < 0.0001). High SCr was associated with higher death rates from cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetic nephropathy (DN), infections, and malignancy., Conclusion: Death rates increased comparably with worsening kidney function in both nondiabetic and diabetic subjects and were similar in nondiabetic and diabetic subjects without KD. KD was associated with excess mortality from DN, CVD, infections, and malignancy in diabetic subjects, and from infections in those without diabetes.

Pima Indians in the United States and Mexico share a common genetic background but have very different lifestyles. Comparisons were made of the frequency of obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and kidney disease in these geographically separated but susceptible populations. Mexican Pimas had higher levels of physical activity, less obesity, and a lower prevalence of diabetes than their US Pima counterparts. Mean blood pressure rose with worsening glucose tolerance, and the prevalence of elevated urinary albumin excretion was higher in patients with diabetes than in those without, regardless of whether they lived in the United States or Mexico. These findings illustrate the importance of lifestyle in the development of diabetes and in the subsequent occurrence of diabetic kidney disease.

The number of cases of treated end-stage renal disease (ESRD) attributable to type 2 diabetes and survival after the onset of renal replacement therapy was examined in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). All Chamorros and Carolinians to receive renal replacement therapy for ESRD between January 1982 and December 2002 were identified. Changes in survival over time were examined by dividing the study into three equal periods. Of 180 new cases of ESRD, 137 (76%; 101 Chamorros, 36 Carolinians) were attributed to diabetes. Ninety-nine subjects, 80% of whom had diabetic ESRD, began renal replacement therapy in the last 7 years of the study compared with 81 (72% with diabetic ESRD) in the previous 14 years. All 137 of the diabetic subjects received haemodialysis. During the 21-year study period, 79 of the diabetic subjects receiving dialysis died. The median survival after the onset of haemodialysis was 37 months in the first time period (1982-1988), 47 months in the second period (1989-1995) and 67 months in the third period (1996-2002). The death rate in the first period was 4.3 times (95% CI, 2.1-8.9) as high and the second period was 2.9 times (95% CI, 1.5-5.8) as high as the most recent period, after adjustment for age, sex and ethnicity in a proportional-hazards analysis. The number of diabetic patients in CNMI who are receiving renal replacement therapy is rising rapidly. Considerable improvement in survival after the onset of haemodialysis has occurred over the past 21 years.

Objective: Periodontal disease may contribute to the increased mortality associated with diabetes., Research Design and Methods: In a prospective longitudinal study of 628 subjects aged > or =35 years, we examined the effect of periodontal disease on overall and cardiovascular disease mortality in Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes. Periodontal abnormality was classified as no or mild, moderate, and severe, based on panoramic radiographs and clinical dental examinations., Results: During a median follow-up of 11 years (range 0.3-16), 204 subjects died. The age- and sex-adjusted death rates for all natural causes expressed as the number of deaths per 1,000 person-years of follow-up were 3.7 (95% CI 0.7-6.6) for no or mild periodontal disease, 19.6 (10.7-28.5) for moderate periodontal disease, and 28.4 (22.3-34.6) for severe periodontal disease. Periodontal disease predicted deaths from ischemic heart disease (IHD) (P trend = 0.04) and diabetic nephropathy (P trend < 0.01). Death rates from other causes were not associated with periodontal disease. After adjustment for age, sex, duration of diabetes, HbA1c, macroalbuminuria, BMI, serum cholesterol concentration, hypertension, electrocardiographic abnormalities, and current smoking in a proportional hazards model, subjects with severe periodontal disease had 3.2 times the risk (95% CI 1.1-9.3) of cardiorenal mortality (IHD and diabetic nephropathy combined) compared with the reference group (no or mild periodontal disease and moderate periodontal disease combined)., Conclusions: Periodontal disease is a strong predictor of mortality from IHD and diabetic nephropathy in Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes. The effect of periodontal disease is in addition to the effects of traditional risk factors for these diseases.

Objective: Diabetic nephropathy (DN) became the leading cause of death in diabetic Pima Indians in the 1970s, but was superseded by ischemic heart disease (IHD) in the 1980s. This study tests the hypothesis that the rise in the IHD death rate between 1965 and 1998 is attributable to access to renal replacement therapy (RRT)., Research Design and Methods: Underlying causes of death were determined among 2,095 diabetic Pima Indians > or = 35 years old during four 8.5-year time intervals. To assess the effect of access to RRT on IHD death rates, trends were reexamined after subjects receiving RRT were classified as if they had died of DN., Results: During a median follow-up of 11.1 years (range 0.01-34), 818 subjects died. The age- and sex-adjusted DN death rate decreased over the 34-year study (P = 0.05), whereas the IHD death rate increased from 3.3 deaths/1,000 person-years (95% CI 1.4-5.2) to 6.3 deaths/1,000 person-years (95% CI 4.5-8.0; P = 0.03). After 151 subjects on RRT were reclassified as if they had died of DN, the death rate for DN increased from 4.8 deaths/1,000 person-years (95% CI 2.6-7) to 11.3 deaths/1,000 person-years (95% CI 9-13.6; P = 0.0007), whereas the increase in the IHD death rate disappeared (P = 0.57)., Conclusions: The incidence rate of renal failure attributable to diabetes has increased rapidly over the past 34 years in Pima Indians. IHD has emerged as the leading cause of death due largely to the availability of RRT and to changes in the pattern of death among those with DN.

Objective: Gypsies (or Roma) recently experienced a transition from a traditional to a Westernized lifestyle. Although mortality in this population is 4-fold higher compared with non-Gypsies, very limited information is available on their morbidity especially with regard to non-communicable diseases. Our aim was to determine the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular diseases in Gypsies and non-Gypsies living in the same region of southern Slovakia., Materials and Methods: We examined 156 Gypsies and 501 non-Gypsies who participated in a population survey. Age- and sex-standardized prevalence rates were computed for each of the following: T2DM, obesity, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, hyperinsulinemia, elevated albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR), metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease., Results: Age-sex standardized prevalence of T2DM was 30% (95% CI=22-39) in Gypsies and 10% (8-13, P=0.0001 for comparison of ethnic groups) in non-Gypsies. Corresponding prevalence of the other variables are: 65% (56-74) and 30% (26-34, P=0.0001) for obesity, 69% (61-76) and 59% (54-63, P=0.04) for hypercholesterolemia, 66% (59-74) and 39% (35-43, P=0.009) for hypertriglyceridemia, 49% (42-56) and 43% (39-47, P=0.1) for hypertension, 33% (26-50) and 8% (2-14, P=0.002) for hyperinsulinemia, 16% (9-22) and 5% (3-7, P=0.0001) for elevated ACR, 20% (12-27) and 4% (3-6, P=0.0001) for metabolic syndrome and 35% (28-43) and 26% (22-29, P=0.004) for cardiovascular disease., Conclusions: Compared with non-Gypsies, Gypsies had a much higher prevalence of T2DM, metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease, which may contribute to their higher mortality.

This study, examining the longitudinal relation among physical activity, body mass index, and development of type 2 diabetes in a high-risk population, is unique because diabetes was determined by oral glucose tolerance testing rather than by self-report. A physical activity questionnaire assessing past year leisure and occupational activity was administered to 1,728 nondiabetic Pima individuals aged 15-59 years as part of a series of clinic examinations in the Gila River Indian Community from 1987 to 2000. During an average follow-up period of 6 years, 346 subjects developed diabetes. Using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards modeling adjusting for age, the authors found that total activity was related to diabetes incidence in women and men (p < 0.05 in women only). After additional adjustment for body mass index, the relation between activity and diabetes incidence was weakened in both men and women. When the age-adjusted diabetes incidence rates were examined by levels of activity stratified by tertile of body mass index, the diabetes incidence rate remained lower in more active than in less active men and women from all body mass index groups, with the exception of the middle body mass index tertile in men (p < 0.05 in women only). These results suggest that the adoption and maintenance of a physically active lifestyle can play a significant role in preventing type 2 diabetes.

Adiponectin is a circulating protein secreted by adipocytes and is thought to have insulin-sensitizing effects. We present genetic analysis of adiponectin levels in 517 Pima Indians without diabetes (from 162 families, 750 sib-pairs). Adiponectin concentrations were heritable, with 39% of the variance of age- and sex-adjusted adiponectin potentially accounted for by additive genetic influences in this population. In genome-wide linkage analyses, suggestive linkage (logarithm of odds [LOD] = 3.0) of adiponectin adjusted for age and sex was found on chromosome 9p at 18 cM. Linkage was also present after inclusion of adiponectin concentrations of siblings with type 2 diabetes not treated pharmacologically (total siblings 582, 182 families, 860 sib-pairs: LOD = 3.5). Tentative evidence of linkage was also found on chromosomes 2 (LOD = 1.7 at 89 cM), 3 (LOD = 1.9 at 124 cM), and 10 (LOD = 1.7 at 70 cM), offering some support to findings of a previous genome-wide scan of adiponectin. Our data suggest that quantitative trait loci on chromosomes 2, 3, 9, and 10 may influence circulating adiponectin concentrations in the Pima population.

Objectives: To determine which of the American Diabetes Association (ADA) or World Health Organization (WHO) plasma glucose criteria for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) best predicts poor fetal outcome. To determine whether an alternative cut-off point would result in increased predictive value and greater diagnostic effectiveness in pregnancies at high risk for GDM., Research Design and Methods: A sample of 473 successive apparently normal pregnant women attending the Obstetric Department were screened for GDM using both the ADA and the WHO criteria. Between 26 and 30 weeks of gestation, they underwent, on subsequent days, a screening test with a 50-g oral glucose load and two oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) with 75 and 100 g of glucose according to the WHO and the ADA recommendations, respectively. From this group, we identified 99 women at high risk for GDM, who did not attend their pregnancy follow-up and whose delivery records were recovered at our hospital or in neighbouring hospitals. This unusual situation enabled us to study the natural history and outcome of their pregnancy in spite of not receiving special management usually provided to such women. As macrosomia was expected to be the most frequent undesirable foetal outcome, sensitivity and specificity calculations have been based on this outcome., Results: The study population (n=99) had a median parity of two and 14% had abnormal results in the 2-h, 75-g load test (WHO) vs. 6% in the 100-g test (ADA). Optimal cut-off points for each test were lower than those recommended for diagnosis by the ADA and the WHO. The optimal sensitivity for the 1-h, 50-g test was 66.7% (cut-off 137 mg/dl), and for the 2-h, 75-g test (cut-off 119 mg/dl). The best specificity and positive predictive value was for this last test with a cut-off point of 140 mg/dl in the second hour., Conclusions: The standard 2-h cut-off value of 140 mg/dl for the 75-g test, as now recommended by WHO, was optimal for predicting macrosomia. Based on the sensitivity and specificity for macrosomia, the 1-h, 50-g screening test had an optimal cut-off point of 137 mg/dl (vs. 140 mg/dl recommended by ADA). The 2-h, 75-g OGTT value using a cut-off point of 119 mg/dl had equivalent sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value. In contrast, the 100-g OGTT had much lower levels of sensitivity, but higher specificity and higher positive predictive value.

Objective: To examine incidence and progression of retinopathy using retinal photographs in Pima Indians and to compare the results with those obtained when retinopathy is assessed by direct ophthalmoscopy., Research Design and Methods: We undertook an analysis of examinations conducted between 1 April 1982 and 31 December 1990 in residents of the Gila River Community in central Arizona. Data were taken from 411 people with diabetes who had at least two examinations during this period. Incidence and progression of retinopathy were evaluated by retinal photography and fundoscopy, and hazard rate ratios were calculated for various potential risk factors measured at baseline., Results: Previously diagnosed retinopathy tended to progress, except in individuals with minimal nonproliferative retinopathy, among whom follow-up examinations were more likely to show no retinopathy. Diabetes duration (hazard rate ratio [HRR], 1.06 per year difference [P = 0.007]), hyperglycemia (HbA(1) HRR, 1.27 per 1% difference [P < 0.0001]), the type of treatment for diabetes (insulin use HRR, 3.06 [P = 0.0007], and oral hypoglycemic use HRR, 2.40 [P = 0.0034], compared with individuals on no pharmacotherapy), and macroalbuminuria (HRR, 2.86, compared with individuals without macroalbuminuria [P = 0.0486]) were associated with the development of retinopathy. Although fundoscopy detected fewer cases of retinopathy, HRRs for most risk factors were similar when retinopathy was assessed by fundoscopy rather than retinal photography., Conclusions: Although retinopathy tends to worsen over time, some eyes show improvement, especially in patients with minimal nonproliferative retinopathy. As in other populations, glycemic control is the major modifiable risk factor for the development and progression of retinopathy.

The insulin gene variable number tandem repeat (INS-VNTR) is proposed to exert pleiotropic genetic effects on birth weight and diabetes susceptibility. In our study, we examined the influence of a polymorphism in tight linkage disequilibrium with INS-VNTR (-23Hph1) on birth weight and type 2 diabetes in the Pima population. A parent-offspring "trio" design was used to assess parent-of-origin effects and population stratification. The presence of the -23Hph1 T-allele was associated with lower birth weight (n = 192; -140 g per copy of the T-allele; P = 0.04), even after adjustment for effects of population stratification (P = 0.03). The effects of paternally transmitted T-alleles were greater than those of maternally transmitted alleles (paternally transmitted: -250 g, P = 0.05; maternally transmitted: -111 g, P = 0.43), but this difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.50). The -23Hph1 T-allele was associated with an increased prevalence of type 2 diabetes (P = 0.009), which family-based association analysis suggested was attributable to population structure (P = 0.04) without significant evidence of linkage disequilibrium between diabetes prevalence and genotype (P = 0.86). Thus allelic variation of the INS gene is associated with lower birth weight and increased prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Significant linkage disequilibrium was found between -23Hph1 and birth weight but not type 2 diabetes, an observation that supports a potential functional role of INS polymorphisms in the regulation of birth weight.

Objective: To investigate the effects of insulin resistance (IR) and insulin secretion (IS) on the development of diabetes mellitus in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) who underwent lifestyle interventions., Methods: 284 out of 577 individuals with IGT identified by population-based screening in Da Qing, China, who were randomized to undergo diet change and/or increased physical activity had baseline fasting and 2 h post-load insulin determinations. They were followed for 6 years for the development of diabetes. IR and IS were assessed using calculated indices based on fasting plasma insulin and glucose. The interactions of IR, IS, obesity and plasma glucose and the effects of the lifestyle interventions were evaluated using Cox Proportional Hazards analysis., Results: Both IR and IS were significantly associated with the development of diabetes. Lifestyle interventions were more effective in those with lower IT and higher IS at baseline. Diet plus exercise interventions resulted in significantly lower incidence of diabetes, even after controlling for IR, IS, BMI and 2hrPG., Conclusion: Both IR and beta-cell function were predictors of diabetes in Chinese with IGT. Lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence of DM and these interventions were more effective in those with less IR., (Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd.)

Objective: Previous population studies have suggested that both rheumatoid factor (RF) production and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) may be declining in occurrence, and both secular and birth-cohort influences have been implicated. Since Pima Indians have a very high incidence of RA and also have shown recent evidence of a decline in RA, this study evaluated the relative contributions of age, secular, and birth-cohort influences on RF seropositivity in the Pima Indian population., Methods: RF data, as assayed by both the bentonite flocculation test (BFT) and the sheep cell agglutination test (SCAT), were available on 5,345 Pima Indians born between 1886 and 1975, who were surveyed at biennial intervals between 1966 and 1995. An age-period-cohort analysis was conducted using data on 18,295 examinations undertaken during the period of study., Results: There was a decline in the proportion of positive test results for RF (titer > or = 1:32) by both BFT and SCAT, in both male and female subjects from 1966-1975 to the later decades of the study (1976-1985 and 1986-1995). Across all periods, by both assays, the crude proportion of positive titers increased with increasing age of the subjects. There was a very clear birth-cohort effect: the highest likelihood of seropositivity was in those individuals born around the end of the nineteenth century, with continuing decline in seropositivity up to the most recent birth cohort. A logistic regression analysis, adjusting for Pima heritage and sex, demonstrated a substantially greater influence of birth cohort than of calendar year on the frequency of RF positivity., Conclusion: In the Pima Indian population, environmental influences in early life are important predictors of the lifelong likelihood of RF positivity. This may have implications for understanding the epidemiology and etiology of RA.

We examined the hypothesis that imprinted genes may affect the propensity to type 2 diabetes and obesity in Pima Indians. Multipoint variance component methods were used to assess linkage of BMI (kg/m(2)) and age-adjusted diabetes to loci derived from either father (LOD(FA)) or mother (LOD(MO)) in a genome-wide scan. Tentative evidence of loci where imprinted genes might be acting was found for diabetes with maternally derived alleles on chromosomes 5 (LOD(MO) = 1.5) and 14 (LOD(MO) = 1.6). Evidence of linkage of BMI to maternally derived alleles was found on chromosome 5 (LOD(MO) = 1.7) and to paternally derived alleles on chromosome 10p (LOD(FA) = 1.7). Additional analyses of sibling pairs who were affected by diabetes and younger than 25 years of age showed an increase of sharing of maternally derived alleles on chromosome 6 (LOD(MO) = 3.0). We also examined sites of a priori interest where action of imprinted genes has been proposed in diabetes or obesity. We found no evidence of parent-specific linkage (of either diabetes or BMI) on chromosome 11p, a region that contains several imprinted genes, but observed weak evidence of linkage of diabetes to paternally derived alleles (LOD(FA) = 0.9) in the region of chromosome 6q, believed to contain an exclusively paternally expressed gene or genes that cause transient neonatal diabetes mellitus. In conclusion, we determined regions of interest on chromosomes 5, 6, and 10 where imprinted genes might be affecting the risk of type 2 diabetes or obesity in Pima Indians.

Aims/hypothesis: This study compared the incidence of vascular disease in subjects with younger-onset diabetes from different ethnic groups., Methods: The incidence of vascular disease endpoints has been studied in a sub-group (n = 994) of participants of the World Health Organization Multinational Study of Vascular Disease in Diabetes (WHO MSVDD) who had younger-onset diabetes (diagnosed before the age of 30 years). The study participants have been divided into European (n = 631), Asian (n = 84) and American Indian (n = 91) cohorts., Results: For Type I (insulin-dependent) and Type II (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus, American Indian men had a higher incidence of lower-extremity amputation and renal failure than the other cohorts, whereas European women had a higher incidence of angina than other cohorts. American Indians also had a higher incidence of any retinopathy, clinical proteinuria and albuminuria than the European and Asian cohorts., Conclusion/interpretation: This study confirms the high burden of large and small-vessel disease complications manifest in American Indian people with younger-onset diabetes.

Aims/hypothesis: We aimed to estimate incidences of any retinopathy and proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) by direct ophthalmoscopy and relate them to baseline risk factors in re-examined diabetic survivors from 10 centres of the WHO Multinational Study of Vascular Disease in Diabetes., Methods: After a mean follow-up of 8.4years (11.7 years in Oklahoma), 2877 (71.6%) survivors were resubmitted to standardised direct ophthalmoscopy as at baseline. The presence of any retinopathy and PDR were recorded at each centre and their incidence estimated in those without retinopathy and PDR at baseline. The independent associations of these incidences with baseline risk factors are expressed as odds ratios derived from multiple logistic regression analyses, within individual centres (which included fasting plasma glucose in 8 and triglyceride in 5) and in pooled data., Results: Of the 4662 original patients, 465 (10.4%) of those without and 77 (43.0%) of those with baseline PDR had died (p < 0.001). Any retinopathy was newly reported at follow-up in 47.7 % and PDR in 9.7 % of those free of them at baseline, with reported incidences varying substantially among centres. Incident retinopathy appeared earlier in the known course of diabetes but incidence rates rose more slowly with duration in patients with Type II (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus than in those with Type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus. In pooled data and in some individual centres, any retinopathy incidence gave significantly positive odds ratios with age, diabetes duration, systolic pressure, plasma cholesterol, BMI, insulin treatment and proteinuria, and with fasting plasma glucose in the centres where it was measured. Positive odds ratios for PDR were similarly obtained for age, duration, insulin treatment, cholesterol, proteinuria and fasting glycaemia. Smoking status odds ratios were negative for both outcomes., Conclusion/interpretation: Incidence of ophthalmoscopically ascertained any retinopathy varied about twofold and of PDR about threefold among centres. Although, in part attributable to differences between observers, variation in incidence in all centres and in some cases within centres was associated with a number of baseline risk factors. Such associations are not likely due to observer variation or selection biases and emerged despite the imprecision of clinical ophthalmoscopy. Improved detection and control of these risk factors should reduce the impact of diabetic retinopathy and its consequences.

Aims/hypothesis: Rates of vascular complications of diabetes in a cohort of mainland Chinese patients with diabetes, ascertained and examined by similar methodology, are compared with those of the WHO Multinational Study of Vascular Disease in Diabetes (WHO MSVDD)., Methods: The standardised procedures carried out in the WHO MSVDD were followed in assembling and examining a Chinese cohort of 447 diabetic patients recruited in Beijing and Tianjin [2]., Results: Compared with the WHO MSVDD centres, the Chinese cohort was slightly older, had a shorter duration of known diabetes and had fewer insulin-treated patients. Arterial pressure, total blood cholesterol and body mass index were substantially lower. Large vessel disease rate for age, sex and duration adjusted data (17.9 % ) was about half that of the combined WHO MSVDD centres (33.5 % p < 0.001). However, retinopathy (47.4% vs 35.8% p < 0.001) and proteinuria (57.1 vs 24.9 % p < 0.001) rates were significantly higher., Conclusion/interpretation: Relatively low arterial pressures and blood cholesterol are likely contributors to the notably low arterial disease rates in this Chinese diabetic cohort; they reflect low rates in the Chinese mainland general population and resemble the Tokyo and Hong Kong centres of the WHO MSVDD. The high rates of retinopathy and proteinuria could relate to later diagnosis, degree of hyperglycaemia and/or increased susceptibiltiy to microangiopathy.