Search

Using the bootstrap rolling-window subsample Granger causality test from China, this study analyses the influence of technological progress (TP) on trade conflict (TC). The results show that TP can both promote and prevent TC. In 2012 and 2018, TP led to more trade conflicts between China and its trading partners. This result proves the "trade-loss effect", suggesting that TP in one country promotes TC by threatening other countries' income. However, TP had a negative influence on TC in 2021 and 2022. This finding is consistent with the "welfare effect", implying that TP can prevent TC by providing more high-quality and cheaper products for worldwide consumers. This study suggests that the government should adopt appropriate trade policies when encouraging TP to promote bilateral trade. Furthermore, firms should develop their own high-quality irreplaceable products through technological innovation to address TC risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the Ice Silk Road (ISR) was put forward, its development prospect has become the focus of academic circles. To study the influence mechanism of 'fairness preference' on the trade cooperation of countries along the ISR, this paper constructs the trade cooperation network based on the bilateral trade data of countries along the ISR, establishes the theoretical model of network game based on Rabin model, and uses the simulation method to test the model. The results show that: (1) the sense of national cognitive fairness does have an impact on the trade cooperation of the ISR; (2) the 'eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth' strategy is not an advantage strategy in the trade cooperation of the ISR; (3) the most significant factor affecting the trade cooperation of countries along the ISR is the neighbor node in the trade network and the social public opinion pressure of cooperation in the network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The authors investigate the impact of the US stock market on the economies of the BRICS and major industrialized economies (G7). Design/methodology/approach: The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. Global vector autoregressive (GVAR) empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows. Findings: The authors summarize the results in four points: (1) financial integration variables increase the effect of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7, (2) the US shock produces similar responses in these groups regarding industrial production, stock markets and confidence but different responses regarding domestic currencies: in the BRICS, the authors detect appreciation of the currencies, while in the G7, the authors find depreciation, (3) G7 stock markets and policy rates are more sensitive to the US shock than the BRICS and (4) the estimates point out to heterogeneities such as the importance of industrial production to the transmission shock in Japan and China, the exchange rate to India, Japan and the UK, the interest rates to the Eurozone and the UK and confidence to Brazil, South Africa and Canada. Research limitations/implications: The results reinforce the importance of taking into account different levels of economic development. Originality/value: The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. GVAR empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on bilateral trade using a modified gravity model of Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) for 21 economies from 2003 to 2018. The analysis includes the yearly mean and standard deviation of EPUs to assess the effects of EPU levels and volatilities on trade values. Increased domestic EPU significantly reduces imports and total trade, while increased partner EPU decreases exports but increases imports. EPU volatility in both domestic and partner countries significantly reduces bilateral trade values. These findings suggest that countries turn to foreign markets to offset domestic demand decreases due to high EPU, except when EPU volatility is high, which negatively impacts all trade activities. The study emphasizes the need for stable, transparent, and rules-based policy frameworks to sustain global trade growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the relationship between China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) by assessing their impact on the economies of both the CEECs and China. By analyzing this connection, the paper seeks to gain insights into the economic dynamics and potential benefits derived from investment and trade activities between China and the countries in this region. The paper employs a regression model to examine the influence of foreign direct investment on trade with data from 2008 to 2022. The findings indicate that a one percentage point increase in China's OFDI corresponds to a 0.054 percent boost in bilateral trade between China and the 16 CEECs. In conclusion, the findings highlight a significant link between OFDI in CEECs and bilateral trade. OFDI opens up new trade opportunities and fosters economic growth in CEECs, thereby promoting the development of bilateral trade. Additionally, Chinese investment drives industrial upgrading and structural adjustments in CEECs, enhancing the competitiveness of bilateral trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accelerated melting of the Arctic ice leads to the navigation of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) linking Asia and Europe, shortening transport channel between China and the European Union (EU). This has a significant impact on the China-EU bilateral trade which is analyzed in the present study. We present a framework based on a general equilibrium model for analyzing the impact of the NSR on the trade and the economies of China and the EU. Different fuel cost scenarios, consisting of fuel prices and sailing speeds on ice, are also considered. Specifically, we measure the changes in shipping costs between China and the EU, brought about by NSR navigation. These are used as a basis to quantify changes in transport technology. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is used to predict the trade and economic impacts. The results show that the NSR can save 0.98% in shipping costs and generate an increase in the exports of China and the EU in the order of 14,986 and 8,228 million US dollars, respectively. Among these exports, the mining industry shows the fastest growth, while the electronics industry experiences the largest increase in trade volume. Our findings reveal the potential of the NSR as an alternative route and its positive impact on bilateral trade between China and the EU. The results can provide a basis for shipping companies and governments to make decisions regarding the use of Arctic routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the design of optimal mechanisms when the designer is uncertain both about the form of information held by the agents and also about which equilibrium will be played. The guarantee of a mechanism is its worst performance across all information structures and equilibria. The potential of an information structure is its best performance across all mechanisms and equilibria. We formulate a pair of linear programs, one of which is a lower bound on the maximum guarantee across all mechanisms, and the other of which is an upper bound on the minimum potential across all information structures. In applications to public expenditure, bilateral trade, and optimal auctions, we use the bounding programs to characterize guarantee‐maximizing mechanisms and potential‐minimizing information structures and show that the max guarantee is equal to the min potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cross‐border trade is critical to livelihoods and food security in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), but bribery remains one of the main barriers to economic growth in the region. Does corruption affect intra‐African trade? We address this issue by considering the bilateral trade among 48 sub‐Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018, which are subject to a high level of corruption. Using a gravity model, the results show that corruption has a positive impact on exports and a negative impact on imports of global, primary, and manufactured goods. However, the difference in the level of corruption between country pairs is negatively and significantly associated with intra‐African trade in manufactured goods. Therefore, to promote the corruption‐free environment needed to facilitate the African Free Trade Agreement, it is essential for policymakers in sub‐Saharan African countries to combat corruption to boost intra‐African trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rules of international air transportation services that apply to signatories' airlines are defined by air services agreements (ASAs). We assess the impact of bilateral ASAs on air transportation using an unique data set providing direct observations of bilateral air transport cost and time for a standardised good, for 1190 country‐pairs, between 2011 and 2015. Our results show that ASAs reduce transportation cost by 8% while they only impact transportation time for landlocked countries and Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) members. Our estimates also reveal that bilateral trade decreases cost of transport, which highlights the role of backhauling in air transportation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the debate on whether membership of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organisation (GATT/WTO) promotes greater levels of international trade. A size‐adjusted measure of trade flows vis‐á‐vis absolute trade flows (the traditional dependent variable) is used. The size‐adjusted trade flows dependent variable reduces the importance of bilateral trade with larger countries yielding a greater balance between large and small trade partners and provides an opportunity to test the importance of membership of the GATT/WTO relative to the numerous regional trade agreements (RTAs) which have grown exponentially over the years. In keeping with the recent literature, a structural gravity model of trade framework is used with a Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator and high dimensional fixed effects. Furthermore, the data set consists of both international and intra‐national (domestic) trade flows. In the case of both approaches (size‐adjusted and absolute trade flows) the results are statistically significant and positive as regards the impact of GATT/WTO membership and RTAs on trade flows. Furthermore, the estimates resulting from size‐adjusted trade flows maintain the greater importance of GATT/WTO membership relative to RTAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of a minority language on international trade. Using the distance to Hunchun as an instrumental variable, and transaction-level customs data from 2000 to 2015, we investigate the causal impact of common Korean language on international trade between Chinese counties and South/North Korea. The results suggest that a 1% increase in the proportion of population speaking Korean will increase value share and transactions share in trade by 1.8% and 2.3%, respectively. These effects are more pronounced in trade with North Korea and in higher trade share regions. Furthermore, we show that the common Korean language exerts its influence through reducing communication barrier. The impact is mainly observed at the extensive margin rather than the intensive margin. These findings highlight the potential of leveraging minority languages to boost bilateral trade in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on panel data from 2000 to 2021 covering African 52 countries under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and utilizing a system generalized method of moments with instrumental variables, the study finds that China's financing has played a positive role in both export and import intensities of African countries with China. However, the impacts of different financing types on trade intensities vary by different country groups and periods. First, Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has a much bigger impact on both export intensity and import intensity, and aid has a much bigger impact on export intensity in resource-rich African countries than other countries. Second, Chinese OFDI has a much bigger impact on export intensity and aid has a much bigger impact on both export and import intensities in low-income African countries than other countries. Third, the regression results from different periods indicate that Chinese financing has enhanced the bidirectional trade relations between China and Africa since BRI launch. The study is conducive to the exploration of multinational corporations and foreign aid's role in trade relations and will help African countries use Chinese capital to promote bilateral cooperation and get rid of poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to analyze the scope and importance of the cooperation dynamics of Latin America's two largest economies, it is essential to observe their respective roles in the global scenario. To this end, it will be shown that under specific contexts there are nations that, despite their similarities, achieve a limited scope of cooperation. This paper will address the possible theoretical bases under the paradigms of realism, idealism and constructivism in order to understand the dynamics of the relationship between Mexico and Brazil, from its beginnings and consolidation as nations, analyze their convergences and contemporary challenges of trade balance and investments to end with the most relevant pending issues for both nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaysian Japanese speaking graduates with Japanese language proficiency (JLP) and business Japanese competence (BJC) employed in Japanese companies (JC) in Malaysia are considered an asset by their employers. However, to what extent are their JLP and BJC sufficient to function in JC is an under researched area and deserves further scrutiny. Therefore, the focus of this research is to identify JC employers’ JLP and BJC requirements of Malaysian Japanese speaking graduates in their Malaysian companies. This qualitative research via semi-structured one-to-one interviews with JC employers of selected companies in Malaysia investigated the requirements of JLP and BJC for Malaysian Japanese speaking graduates employed in JC. The findings revealed that JLP requirement is dependent on position and task whereas time management and business customs, Ho/Ren/So (Reporting / Contacting / Consulting) are considered as important BJC practices. Furthermore, speaking and listening in Japanese language is considered as crucial skills and the most challenging for Malaysian Japanese speaking graduates at JC to master. Incorporating Japanese business customs and workplace practices in Japanese language curriculum at higher education and increasing internship opportunities at JC would ensure Malaysian Japanese speaking graduates acquire the required JLP and BJC through their higher education. This research augurs well for the enhancement of Japanese language curriculum in higher education institutions in Malaysia as well as Japan-Malaysia bilateral trade to further strengthen Japanese companies’ presence in Malaysia and attract new Japanese investments with high level of JLP and BJC manpower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the jump risk contagion between the US and China during the financial crisis driven by COVID-19, and the impact of a series of determinants to detect the transmission mechanisms. Specifically, we employ the ARJI–GARCH model to capture jump behavior and apply the Clayton Copula to construct lower tail jump contagion. Furthermore, we conduct regression analysis on variables related to economic fundamentals and investor behavior to explore the fundamental or pure contagion hypotheses. Our results suggest an increased jump dependence during major catastrophic crises such as COVID-19, but it is closer to a memory-less process. Besides, bilateral trade, similarity in fundamentals and investor behavior are all important determinants, and pure contagion hypothesis exists between the Chinese and US stock markets during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pollution haven hypothesis is studied from a bilateral trade perspective in this study, taking the reference of two Asian giants, namely, India and China. For this purpose, trade in pollution-intensive industries is analysed using data collected from the United Nations Comtrade dataset based on Standard Industrial Trade Classification codes for 1992–2019. The analysis helps us argue that between the two, China's demand is more pollution-intensive and India is the major supplier of pollution-intensive products. From an environmental perspective, this implies that China seems to be gaining from trade, and India is becoming a pollution haven in its trade with China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade negotiators are confronted with the policy challenge of determining which non-tariff measures (NTMs) and products to focus on, particularly in the agriculture and food sectors, which face a prevalence of NTMs. Quantitative advice on the trade effects of different measures can inform one aspect of a negotiator's multifaceted prioritization process. Despite well-established methods for the quantification of trade policies at an aggregate bilateral trade level, the product-level literature suffers from a general misapplication of economic theory, leaving much of it divergent from microeconomic foundations. Furthermore, the literature generally makes compromises that inhibit the ability to draw useful insight on importer-specific policy variables like NTMs. In light of this gap in the literature, we propose an approach that leads to a proof-of-concept quantification methodology for bilateral product-level analysis, fulfiling a need in the body politic to defensibly identify trade effects of NTMs at a bilateral and product level. International grains markets are used as an example to demonstrate the proof-of-concept. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the canonical trade model with heterogeneous firms, love for variety and trade costs, and integrate it in the consumption CAPM model. This yields a structural gravity equation that includes an additional factor related to risk premia. Empirical evidence based on firm-level data confirms the importance of cross-sectional heterogeneity in risk and time-varying risk premia to shape bilateral trade flows. The structural gravity model augmented to account for fluctuations in risk premia offers a compelling explanation for trade collapses during abrupt economic downturns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bilateral trade relationships between countries vary across products. Such heterogeneity poses challenges when assessing the economic impacts of trade agreements. This paper estimates bilateral trade elasticities at the product level and explores these impacts using a hypothetical no‐deal Brexit as an example. Our findings indicate that the European Union's demand for the United Kingdom products is often less elastic compared to products from other trading partners. We also observed substantial heterogeneity in the elasticities across products and a negative correlation between these elasticities and tariffs. These factors mitigate extent of trade welfare losses compared to a scenario using homogeneous elasticities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine how variation in the severity of government intervention in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic impacted trade, using a novel dataset on monthly bilateral trade flows between Canadian provinces and U.S. states. Our results show that differences in the collections of policy responses employed by states and provinces throughout the course of the pandemic have had a significant and heterogeneous impact in accounting for variation in changes in aggregate province‐state trade flows. Government interventions around workplace closures and gathering restrictions are associated with the largest drop in bilateral trade flows, especially when introduced by U.S. states and during periods when COVID‐19 case rates are rising, while many pandemic restrictions have no statistically significant impact on trade flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A health crisis can impact GVCs adversely by raising bilateral trade costs and via supply‐ and demand‐side shocks in the exporting and importing countries. Focusing on trade in select GVC‐intensive sectors, we disentangle the effects of these different channels in the context of SARS and MERS in a structural gravity framework. The estimated effects are found to be small in magnitude and show significant heterogeneity by sector, channel and disease outbreak. SARS‐induced rise in bilateral trade costs is found to reduce the export value and number of products traded of both intermediate and final goods, while similar adverse effects from MERS are only observed on intermediate goods export value. There is more evidence for the adverse effects of supply‐shocks from both SARS and MERS in our results, while the expected negative effects of the demand‐shock are only observed for MERS. The SARS effects are found to diminish over time, pointing to resilience of the associated value‐chains. We also find suggestive evidence for SARS in particular being associated with geographical diversification and widening of value‐chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the regional impact of the sanctions imposed by the West on the Russian Federation. To this end, we used two samples to estimate the determinants of bilateral trade. The first dataset belongs to ex-Soviet countries between 1992 and 2019, and the second dataset expands it with bilateral trade data relating to China, Iran and Turkey. The results reveal that there are structural differences between the two samples regarding the determinants of the bilateral trade flows and sanctions that have spillover effects in the region. We also projected our findings to the recent events. JEL Codes: C33, F13, F14 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of China Forest Products Industry is the property of China Forest Products Industry Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study applies multilevel modelling to the analysis of trade flows. This methodology can complement the use of the standard gravity equation in addressing the influence of geographical distance on the impact of trade agreements on bilateral trade (the natural-partner hypothesis). The analysis suggests that the simplest, most obvious, and best way to nest country pairs with international trade data is by distance. To this end, a sample of 69 countries with data on domestic flows over the period 1986–2016 was used. This sample accounts for around 85% of world trade data. The estimations suggest that the pro-trade effects of preferential trade agreements decrease with distance to trade partners, while this does not occur with the multilateral trading system. What is more interesting is that the former result only holds for the preferential trade agreements involving goods, which supports the natural-trading partner hypothesis, but not for those that include services. In the latter case, the impact increases with distance. This suggests that deeper preferential trade agreements reduce the cost of distance as a barrier to trade, which probably reflects cultural (regulation) distance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the effectiveness of cooperation among bank supervisors using novel data on supranational agreements signed by 93 countries. Exploiting that globally operating banks are differently covered by these agreements, we show that supervisory cooperation generally improves bank stability. The magnitude of the effect is higher for smaller global banks, and when supervisors are more stringent and have access to higher quality information. We also show that actual supervisory cooperation varies across countries consistent with differences in economic costs and benefits of cooperation. This suggests that cooperation is not always desirable, despite being effective in reducing bank risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cultural differences between countries are customarily calculated by comparing mean scores on multiple dimensions, which ignores heterogeneity within societies. This article proposes a fundamentally new way of measuring cultural differences by evaluating the functioning of the emotional brain—that is, by comparing how people think, rather than what they think. Deep learning as a supervised machine learning technique is used to mathematically represent the emotional brain of the Volksgeist ("folk spirit") with a complex system of nonlinear combinations of value priorities, opinions, and other factors with subjective feelings of well-being. Cross-validating how well one Volksgeist's artificial brain fits another country provides a novel measure for emotional cultural differences, which also considers heterogeneity within a society. This measure is conceptually and statistically unrelated to the Kogut–Singh index calculated from mean scores on cultural dimensions. However, it shows good face validity and supports international marketing and business theory as a negative and highly significant predictor for bilateral trade flows within Europe, using a classic gravity model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The connection between India and South Africa boasts a deep historical foundation of cordial relations, developed through traditional and political ties that have persisted nearly for two centuries. It has been further strengthened in recent decades, to foster the economic and social status of both the regions. The study's objective is to investigate trade relations between India and South Africa using a 20-year data set, spanning from 2004 to 2023. The study carefully examined India's exports and imports in relation to its trade links with South Africa. The results have proved that the trade between India and the South Africa have seen seven-folds increase from US$ 2.59 billion in 2004 to US$ 19.36 billion in 2023, demonstrating the strong growth in bilateral trade. The advantages gained by both nations through the sharing of their resources have been demonstrated by an analysis of the trade history spanning two decades between the two regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employs the new panel data structural gravity approach to investigate the overarching effect of ICT on bilateral trade flows and economic growth, by using a panel of 65 Belt and Road initiative (BRI) countries. This comprises of twenty-seven (27) sub-Saharan African countries from the period 2000 to 2019. The empirical results indicate that greater access to ICT deepens bilateral export and growth among participating countries. Essentially, the results demonstrate a positive correlation between ICT growth and economic development in the BRI countries. Overall, the findings reveal that ICT and infrastructural growth have provided the East African Community (EAC) a lot of opportunities to boost intra-regional trade. However, the BRI countries need to invest more heavily in ICT infrastructure to foster a continuous and sustainable economic development paradigm within the enclave. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the question of choice between regionalism and multilateralism in trade relations of Central Asia introduced by Pomfret (2005). Our study is motivated by a significant restoration of economic links between the former Soviet republics following Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and the formation of new trade ties with Vietnam, Iran, and Serbia. Above all, there have been substantial commitments made by the three Central Asian republics of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan toward a multilateral system under the WTO rules. To this end, we apply a multi-region gravity model with interdependent trade flows using bilateral trade data of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to study the ex-ante effects of economic integration with various bilateral, plurilateral, and multilateral partners. Our findings indicate the existence of considerable gains if the aforementioned economies would ascend to the EAEU in comparison to integration with China or Iran. We also document the presence of shared economic links between Tajikistan, Central Asia, and Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We develop a model on how military and trade alliances can impact defense spending. • Importance of trade and its balance with the leader influences defense spending. • The larger the leader's trade and surplus, the lower the minor partners' spending. Military spending was the main government expenditure until the 20th century, and it still represents a significant fraction of most governments' budgets. We develop a theoretical model to understand how both military and trade alliances with military leaders can impact defense spending. By increasing the costs of military aggression by a non-ally, an alliance reduces the probability of war and allows minor partners reducing their military spending in exchange for a stronger trade relationship with an alliance leader and a higher trading surplus for the latter. We test our hypotheses with data on 138 countries for 1996–2020. Our results show that the importance of the trade relationship and the trade balance with the military alliance leader is a significant driver of military spending. The greater the weight of trade with the military leader and the higher its trade surplus, the lower is the defense spending of the minor partner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The model corridor stretching from Mumbai (India) to St. Petersburg (Russia) through Iran and Azerbaijan is known as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This multi-modal corridor is around 7,200 km long and consists of rail, roads, and waterways. The main objective of the construction of the corridor is to improve connectivity and trade relations between the North and the South. It will play a crucial role in promoting regional cooperation and economic integration. Bilateral relations between the member countries will be developed through the project. India will have easy access to the resourcerich Central Asian nations via this corridor, bypassing Pakistan. It will help India by exporting its products to the North and Central Asian countries, including Russia, and importing hydrocarbons at a lower cost by avoiding the traditional long-time route. In the present geopolitical situation, this venture will also improve India's strategic relations with the member countries. Although the project at present is suffering from some glitches, it will be a game changer for India's Eurasia policy in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong commercial ties promote peace as states shun the opportunity costs of economic disruption. However, trade also enriches and empowers states, rendering them more capable of enforcing long-term settlements. Given economic disruption does not last forever, countries can be incentivized to trade short-term economic losses for long-term political or territorial gains. This trade-off can restrict or even reverse the pacifying effect of commerce as it renders states incapable of committing to existing peaceful deals. I argue the scope condition hinges on the existing power imbalance and the security externalities of trade, defined as states' abilities to translate trade gains into (potential) military power. For countries where the existing power gap is not extreme, the impact of bilateral strategic trade is contingent upon a country's trade externality relative to its opponent's. Although increased bilateral trade can be peace-promoting when the relative externality is small, the pacifying effects can dissipate as a relatively weaker state becomes more capable of exploiting trade gains. Building on recent work in network analysis, I propose a new measurement of trade externalities to test the above theory and find supporting results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study delves into the economic and trade relations between Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia over the past five years, highlighting the evolution driven by strategic interests and regional stability. The research analyzes secondary data, examining official trade and investment reports, government statements, international organization data, and academic articles. It also considers diplomatic developments such as highlevel visits and agreements. The period from 2020 to 2024 witnessed significant growth and diversification in trade among these nations. Turkey's exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia increased markedly, driven by sectors like agricultural technologies, food security, clean energy, and construction. Key moments include the establishment of a $10 billion investment fund following UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan's visit to Turkey in 2021 and the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2023, aiming to elevate bilateral trade to $40 billion over five years. Simultaneously, Turkey's economic relations with Saudi Arabia experienced fluctuations but generally depicted a positive trend. High-level visits by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman revitalized economic ties, resulting in cooperation agreements across various sectors, including health, energy, and the defense industry. The economic relations between Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia reflect a dynamic interplay of strategic interests, mutual investments, and shared goals. The strengthened economic partnerships have contributed to regional stability and are expected to develop further, driven by strategic collaborations in energy, technology, and infrastructure. These developments underscore the importance of economic diplomacy and mutual investments in shaping future cooperation prospects and regional power dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

US international trade policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study deals with changes in European Union's (EU's) trade potential in Machinery (HS 84–85) and Transportation (HS86-89) products. Design/methodology/approach: The study uses a Structural Gravity model, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation together with panel data for the years 2002–2018 and a two-step procedure that employs predicted values of bilateral trade to compare potential to actual trade. Findings: Results for Machinery products suggest a potential to expand trade with existing Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in the American continent, and countries of the IGAD region in Africa. In Transportation, a high trade potential with RTAs is found in the Americas, Africa and the Middle East. Policy suggestions concentrate on opportunities for enhancing trade relations through trade liberalization and agreement proliferation. Originality/value: There are no studies to date, that examine "collective" measure of EU trade potential, that treats the EU as a single country. Changes in existing opportunities to expand trade, common for EU members, are of special interest for policy formulation, especially after the recent turmoil presented by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Greek Economic Crisis (GEC). Treating the EU as a single entity, is necessary for the formulation of an effective, common, EU trade policy. This study concentrates on the manufacturing sector to examine existing opportunities for the EU to expand trade, after the GFC and the GEC. This article deals with Machinery (HS 84 and 85) and Transportation (HS 86 through 89) products as they comprise a significant part of total EU exports, reaching 41% of total exports in 2016. Finally, this study offers a unique illustration of results through trade potential heat maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This article analyzes the impact of monetary policy on income inequality across 16 advanced economies. The author investigates three key points: (1) the relationship between domestic monetary policy and domestic income inequality, (2) the spillover effect of USA monetary policy (including quantitative easing) on international inequality and (3) the quantitative influence of the monetary policies of both the USA and the Eurozone on the formation of domestic income inequalities. Design/methodology/approach: The author employed the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, which uses Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables (VARXs) models of each economy to build an integrated system that enables us to evaluate individual responses to global shocks. Findings: The author's analysis reveals that (1) contractionary monetary policy exacerbates domestic inequality and (2) USA monetary policy, including quantitative easing, affects international inequality. Furthermore, the author's variance decomposition analysis highlights that USA monetary policy is especially influential on income inequality in Norway and Sweden. Additionally, the cointegrating analysis confirms that monetary policy's impact on inequality persists in the long term. Originality/value: Most of the studies focused on investigating domestic economies as closed economies. However, the author's approach differs in that the author uses the GVAR, which treats all economies as open. This allows us to incorporate the world economy into the domestic dynamics and connect the economies using bilateral trade. Another advantage of the GVAR is that it captures spillover effects by modeling each economy and constructing the international economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International production networks in machinery industry have formed three large clusters, each of which is in East Asia, North America, and Europe. This paper investigates the recent evolvement of the connection between Factory Asia and Factory North America with highlighting the role of Latin American countries as a mediator. For this purpose, we utilized trade matrices and gravity equations to measure each country's level of commitment to each bilateral machinery trade after controlling the size of the economies, distance, and others. Our major findings are threefold: first, Mexico is the only Latin American country that plays a connecting role between two Factories. Second, in 2010–2019, the linkage of exports to Mexico from not only China but also other East Asian countries is strengthened particularly in machinery parts and components. Third, export linkage of China with Mexico is further intensified in 2019–2021 particularly in machinery parts and components due to the US-China confrontation, the USMCA, and other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's relationship with Latin America countries experienced a process of significant expansion over the past two decades. Even though Latin America was not considered as part of the BRI when it was first established, China designed its economic strategy toward the region by emphasizing investment, financial and industrial capacity cooperation, besides trade. Afterwards, China invited Latin American countries to participate in the BRI at the China–Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) Ministerial Forum in Santiago in January 2018. Twenty-one Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have signed up to the BRI. However, there are few LAC countries that have not done so, among them the region's largest economies such as Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, although Brazil is with full AIIB membership. This paper focuses on the specific economic relations between China and Mexico, as far as Mexico is the less involved LA country into the BRI, and Mexico's position toward China is more aligned with that of its North American partners than to the Latin American countries. This article analyzes the specific situation of Mexico, characterized by its deep integration and dependency on the US market and examines the current economic relations of China and Mexico, considering the impact of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement on the bilateral economic relations. The structure of bilateral trade between Mexico and China is also examined, using the Grubel-Lloyd Index (GLI). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sino-Latin American trade have increased substantially for decades. However, the increasing trade imbalances between China and several Latin American countries have yielded growing trade frictions. In this paper, we re-calculate the bilateral trade balance using the value-added content in trade and measure the contribution of Sino-Latin American trade to economic growth. The results show that gross trade statistics seriously overestimate the real bilateral trade imbalance, and China's trade surplus with Mexico decreased by over 50%. The composition of Sino-Latin American trade suggests that most Latin American economies are complementary with Chinese economy. The South-South trade has been increasingly important for both China's and Latin America's economic development. We foresee an optimistic future of relations and continuously increasing trade between China and Latin America. Meanwhile, more efforts should be made to settle trade frictions and intensify Sino-Latin American relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in the US–China political relations on bilateral trade between Australia and China. Three scenarios are considered to reflect the evolution of US geopolitical strategies in recent years such as "America First", "China Threat Theory" and "The Protection of US Allies". The simulation results illustrate that worsening the US–China political relations has a negative impact on Australian exports to and imports from China. It is also found that economic conditions in the US play a more important role in the transmission of this impact than those in China and Australia. In addition, various options are explored to check the robustness of the findings in this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Success of economic sanctions hinges on their impact on sanctioned countries' trade. This, in turn, depends on the sanctioned country's opportunity to divert trade to a third party (a country not involved in sanctions). History is witness to third parties facilitating trade diversion, thus busting sanction. Nonetheless, literature does not present conclusive evidence on trade diversion or on motivation for busting sanctions. Therefore, in this paper, we address the following: What bearing do sanctions have on bilateral trade flows and trade diversion? Is diversion dependent on the political and trade alliance third-party shares with the sanctioned and/or the sanctioning countries? We estimate a structural gravity model for globally representative country-dyads, during 1990–2019, using inter-alia the Global Sanctions Database. We find that sanctions depress bilateral trade between sanctioned and sanctioning nations and cause trade diversion via third party. The existence of trade alliance between third party and country involved in sanction has an additional impact on trade diversion. Furthermore, a political alliance between third party and sanctioned country heightens trade between them. However, political alliance between third party and sanctioning country does not explain trade between them. Our findings offer insights into India's trade relations with Russia, since 2022, when Russia was subject to US-led sanctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study delves into the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the bilateral semiconductor trade between Korea and China. We present compelling evidence emphasising the significant role of exchange rate changes in Korea's semiconductor trade with China, affecting both short‐term and long‐term dynamics. Our analysis also reveals an asymmetrical effect of bilateral exchange rates on Korea's semiconductor trade with China. Specifically, we find that exchange rate asymmetries primarily manifest as a long‐term phenomenon in Korea's semiconductor exports to China. At the same time, they influence both short‐ and long‐term dynamics in Korea's semiconductor imports from China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research examines the trade potential between Pakistan and its 20 major trading partners from 1990 to 2020 using a gravity model of trade. Understanding bilateral trade dynamics is essential for Pakistan, given its economic ties with regional and global partners. The study analyzes various factors, including economic, geographic, and infrastructural elements that influence trade flows and assesses cross-sectional dependencies among countries. Findings indicate that stronger economies with larger populations and developed infrastructures promote higher trade volumes. Moreover, geographical distance significantly restricts trade potential, as evidenced by the absence of cross-sectional dependency, meaning trade shocks in one nation do not impact others directly. To boost regional trade, Pakistan should invest in infrastructure and lower barriers with neighboring countries. Additionally, strengthening trade agreements with the EU could diversify exports and reduce dependency on a limited number of partners. Future research should broaden the timeframe and consider alternative econometric techniques for a deeper understanding of trade dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Economic Series of the Bulletin of the L.N. Gumilyov ENU is the property of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Trade is considered one of the main drivers of a country's economic growth and development. Therefore, a successful analysis that identifies the bilateral trade flows, their determinants, and the regional integration costs and benefits opens new horizons for international trade perspectives. This study examines the effects of new and existing regional agreements on the international trade patterns of Western Balkan countries based on the Albanian case. In this regard, an extended trade gravity model is applied with a panel data set of trade flows between Albania and 43 of its regional strategic partners during the period of 2008 to 2022. This work considers two different similarity indexes to explain the effect of the economic structures of partner countries on their trade volumes: the relative factor endowment and the absolute factor endowment. The first is used to test the Linder Hypothesis, and the latter is used to test the effect of similarity in economic size between trading partners. Empirical results indicate that the effect of the selected explanatory variables, such as transportation costs, economic size, economic strength, exchange rate, and their relative as well as absolute endowment, is within expectations. Unexpectedly, the domestic economic size and strength are found to be insignificant in explaining the import flows and inversely proportional to the exports of Albania. Finally, it is indicated that trade flows are clearly dependent on traditional ties rather than on new incentives like the Open Balkan, which cannot offer a new regional center of gravity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the gravity of the Open Balkan initiative has been tested for one of the participating countries. The study concludes that while the Open Balkan initiative shows potential, the Berlin Process remains a more reliable path toward EU integration for Albania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is devoted to the systematization of the prerequisites for the emergence and formation of preferential trade in the context of the historical evolution and institutionalization of international trade agreements. The conclusion of preferential agreements is a common instrument for the development of international trade and economic relations, which retains its relevance in the context of modern fragmentation of the world economy and the spread of foreign trade neoprotectionism. The results of the carried out analysis of scientific publications showed that the focus of researches is mainly on the factors of rapid development of international (in particular, preferential) trade in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. At the same time, understanding the current trends, prospects and challenges of preferential trade requires a study of its essence as a historically conditioned result of the evolution and institutionalization of international trade. Disclosure of the chronology of the formation of preferential trade is proposed to be carried out in the context of the evolution of international trade and the stages of its institutionalization. Based on the results of systematization of the basic characteristics of the stages of evolution of international trade, the features of its historical formation are determined, examples of relevant international trade agreements are provided and the prerequisites for the transition of international trade and economic relations to each subsequent stage of development are defined. The results of the systematization of the evolutionary stages of international trade confirm that preferential arrangements are an integral feature of its development, since each period can be corresponded with certain characteristics of preferential agreements, namely: subject, zone, depth of coverage of preferences, conditions of access to markets, standardization of trade rules, measures of protection and conditions of competition, provisions on investments. On the basis of the analysis of certain characteristics, it is substantiated that the institutionalization of international trade is an evolutionary process of institutionalization of preferential trade, where each subsequent stage reflects the development of new types, forms and rules for concluding international trade agreements. An important evolutionary result of the transformation of international trade agreements should be considered a gradual decrease in the asymmetry of preferences in both bilateral and global trade agreements, which testifies in favor of equalizing the conditions of international competition and gravitating towards equal involvement of countries in the processes of world trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Cuadernos Europeos de Deusto is the property of Universidad de Deusto and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Ecuador has maintained an active participation in the international market thanks to the improvement of the productive sectors, plus the management of representative organizations abroad, managing to promote negotiation ties with global organizations such as the European Union. Commercial import transactions have estimated a growing development in several regions of the country, especially in the rural sector. For several years there have been imported products such as agricultural inputs that necessarily forge and demand a constant utility, to sustain local productions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates if individuals' negative assessments of the future drive micro-level reluctance for international cooperation and reciprocal behavior, a core principle of multilateralism. To test our theoretical expectations, we field online survey experiments on a sample of over 3000 respondents in the US and Turkey in October–November 2020. The experimental results show that on average, individuals are fairly sensitive to target countries' policy actions and are inclined to reciprocate when contemplating whether to increase contributions to UN or consent to bilateral trade liberalization. Yet, further analyses concur that individual inclinations to reciprocate are substantially moderated by their future expectations. Specifically, individuals who are more pessimistic about their material prospects remain fairly indifferent to the positive actions of other countries, but are more likely to penalize negative foreign policy actions by reciprocating in kind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]