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Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; CRP7; Global Futures and Strategic Foresight, PIM; MTID; EPTD, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM); CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) explores policies that can help feed the world, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. Here we examine how alternative investment scenarios affect agricultural production, productivity, and food security for the period 2010-2050 compared to a reference scenario. These results are drawn from a recent report that provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options on the CGIAR’s objectives relating to poverty, food and nutrition security, and natural resources and ecosystem services in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate to 2050 (Rosegrant et al. 2017). The report was developed in collaboration with scientists from all 15 CGIAR Centers and was intended to inform decision-making by the CGIAR and its partners in relation to agricultural research and development.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; UNFSS, MTID; LAC, This study presents an economy-wide analysis for Guatemala, considering several tax options on sugar and SSB and then tracing their differentiated general economic effects. We focus on Guatemala, considering the increasing health burden imposed by obesity and the fact that it is also an important sugar producer and exporter. In the next section we describe the general conditions for sugar production and consumption in Guatemala. We then describe the economy-wide model utilized, the modeled scenarios, and finally, the results of the simulations before concluding.

PR, IFPRI2; CRP4, DGO; CPA; MTID; PHND; A4NH, CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), Despite global goals to decrease malnutrition, there remain many challenges in providing access to a nutritious diet for all. Food value chains for nutrition have been the focus of a number of reviews but evidence of their impacts remains limited. Using a systems perspective to look at markets and the role of the private sector in nutrition includes not only the complex relations between multiple actors and trade-offs between often competing objectives, but also the supporting environment in terms of infrastructure (e.g. roads, energy) and the guiding laws and social norms.

PR, IFPRI4; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; UNFSS, MTID, This chapter provides a brief overview and examples of nutrition-sensitive value chains, and the research and findings thus far regarding how they can improve nutrition at the household level in Africa. The policy efforts supporting nutrition-focused agricultural practices in a changing climate will also be discussed.

Non-PR, CRP2; IFPRI1, MTID; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Policies targeting agricultural value chains impact Tanzanian farmers, so it is important to understand how these policies affect producer incentives and price transmission along the value chain. This research focuses on maize and groundnut value chains, estimating Nominal Rates of Protection (NRPs) along the value chain and analyzing their implications for producers. The results for border NRPs and trade status imply an anti-trade bias in maize; imported maize faces an import tariff, while exported maize often faces taxes. Furthermore, maize NRPs at the farmgate are negative, suggesting trade policies are negatively affecting Tanzanian farmers. For the groundnut value chain, border NRPs are consistently negative for all years, regardless of whether Tanzania imports or exports groundnuts and groundnut oil. Farmgate NRPs for groundnuts are negative as well. Groundnut processing and marketing remain undeveloped in Tanzania, and inefficiencies in the groundnut value chain create disincentives for groundnut farmers. For both maize and groundnut value chains, farmgate prices and NRPs for each region show significant variation, indicating the impact of regional/state-level policy framework or other market inefficiencies. Further research on the value chain participants and processing channels is needed to identify opportunities for increasing efficiencies in processing and value addition across these two value chains.

PR, IFPRI3; DCA; CRP2; ISI; Capacity Strengthening; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry, MTID; PIM, CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

PR, IFPRI1; B Promoting healthy food systems, DGO; CKM; PHND; MTID, Meeting global goals for nutrition and sustainability will require joint solutions tailored to diverse situations. Value chain analysis provides a promising framework for understanding effective interventions to achieve better outcomes for both health and environment.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; CRP4; B Promoting healthy food systems; C Improving markets and trade; FIPP; UNFSS, MTID; A4NH, CGIAR Research Programs on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH)

PR, IFPRI1; B Promoting healthy food systems; B.2 Value Chains for Enhances Nutrition; CRP4, PHND; MTID; A4NH, CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), Although value-chain interventions have historically focused on increasing income for smallholders and other stakeholders along the chain (Hawkes 2013), value chains can also play an important role in determining the availability, affordability, quality, and acceptability of nutritious foods. The nutritional benefits and food-safety risks associated with consuming a particular food can be enhanced or diminished at key points along the value chain.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; B Promoting healthy food systems; B.2 Value Chains for Enhances Nutrition; CRP4, PHND; MTID; A4NH, CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), In this paper we explore how a value chain framework can inform the design of interventions for achieving improved nutrition. Conceptually, there are three main channels for value chains to improve nutrition: (1) through increased consumption of nutritious foods (a demand side pathway); or (2) through increased incomes from value chain transactions (a supply side pathway) or (3) through increased nutrition value-addition in the chain transactions. These three pathways are interlinked and involve complex dynamics that are not straightforward to understand.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; GRP37, WCAO, In an effort to inform strategic options to improve agricultural productivity, we examine the impact of social service expenditures on the marginal productivity of agricultural inputs. Increasing agricultural productivity is often advocated as a way to reduce poverty, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where many people still rely on agriculture as their main source of income. Unfortunately, limited national budgets are often focused on meeting short-term needs rather than on making longer-term, growth-enhancing investments in agriculture and rural areas. Using Tanzania as a case study, this research investigates the direct and indirect impacts of district-level health and education expenditures on marginal productivities of agricultural inputs through education and health outcomes. This approach uses recently-released data for Tanzania and health and education spending data as well as an innovative combination of approaches including a general covariance structure model and a mixed linear model to allow for district-level heterogeneity. Our results suggest a significant and nonlinear relationship between social outcomes and social expenditures and point to the importance of these outcomes in productivity. Marginal productivities of inputs are significant and confirm the validity of a heterogeneous technology approach. As expected, labor productivity, in particular, responds significantly to health and education outcomes. The findings also point to the importance of controlling for intra-country socioeconomic and agro-climatic heterogeneity.

PR, IFPRI1; C Improving markets and trade, DGO; CKM; ESAO; WCAO; SAO; DSGD; MTID, In addition to global events and food policy changes, 2015 also saw important developments with potentially wide repercussions in individual countries and regions. This chapter offers perspectives on major food policy developments across the major regions: Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, South Asia, East Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. The individual regional sections cover many critical topics: Facing climate risks and growing populations with regional cooperation and accountability in Africa; Growing refugee populations, food insecurity, and conflict in the Middle East and North Africa; Vulnerability to external shocks and falling remittances that increase Central Asia’s food insecurity; New policies for food safety, nutrition, and financial and social inclusion in South Asia; Expected impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership in East Asia; Latin America and the Caribbean’s contribution to global food security and global environmental public goods