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Zavjetrinska oluja mezoskalni je meteorološki fenomen koji se javlja u planinskim predjelima. Vjetar je to čije srednje satne brzine mogu premašiti 20 m·s−1, a udari i 50 – 70 m·s−1. Zavjetrinska oluja može pospješiti lokalno nagle promjene u temperaturi i drugim meteorološkim parametrima, ali i nepovoljno djelovati na okoliš i ljude. U ovom radu razmatrani su podaci dobiveni provedbom projekta NorCP koristeći model HCLIM38-AROME koji je bio ugniježđen u mrežu modela HCLIM38-ALADIN. Rubni uvjeti uzeti su iz ERA-Interim reanalize. Simulacije su pokrile 20 godina, 1998. – 2017., za područje Skandinavskog poluotoka, odnosno Skandinavskog gorja. Skandinavsko gorje vrlo je izazovno za modeliranje i proučavanje njegovog utjecaja na vrijeme zbog izrazite kompleksnosti. Okruženost oceanom i morima, strme planine s mnogo ispresijecanih klanaca, fjordova i vrhova utječu na strujanje te ga mijenjaju i dinamički i termodinamički. U ovom radu istraživana je povezanost sinoptičke situacije i zavjetrinskih oluja na četiri naknadno podijeljene poddomene. Kako bi se pravilnost mogla uočiti, uvedeno je 10 prije konstruiranih cirkulacijskih tipova. Nakon analize broja zavjetrinskih oluja po sezonama, pristupilo se detaljnijoj analizi zimske sezone (DJF) i to po svim cirkulacijskim tipovima i poddomenama. Rezultati pokazuju kako se smjerovi zavjetrinskih oluja po poddomenama i cirkulacijskim tipovima ne razlikuju značajno. Proučavana je promjena temperature u područjima nastupa zavjetrinskih oluja, odnosno ima li vjetar burski ili fenski karakter. Budući da se pokazalo kako se cirkulacijski tipovi na poddomenama međusobno klimatološki ne razlikuju, analizirani su pojedini termini koji su uzrokovali najveći broj zavjetrinskih oluja kako bi se pokušao ustanoviti uzrok tomu. Izabrano je pet primjera: dominantno hlađenje, dominantno grijanje, dva termina gdje je jasna podjela između hlađenja i grijanja te heterogeni slučaj kojeg karakterizira nepravilni prostorni raspored grijanja i hlađenja. Razmatranje navedenih slučajeva ukazuje na kompleksnost situacije te pokazuje kako pri proučavanju lokalnih meteoroloških fenomena, kao što su zavjetrinske oluje, više faktora može imati značajnu ulogu. Downslope windstorms are mesoscale meteorological phenomena that occur in mountainous regions. The hourly average speed of these winds can exceed 20 m·s−1, and the gusts can go up to 50 — 70 m·s−1. Downslope winds can locally enhance abrupt changes in temperature and other meteorological parameters, but can also negatively affect the environment, and people as well. The data analyzed in this study was obtained by the NorCP project using the HCLIM38-AROME model which is nested in the HCLIM38-ALADIN model grid. Boundary conditions were obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The simulations covered 20 years, from 1998 to 2017, for the region of the Scandinavian peninsula, or more precisely, the Scandes. Due to their complexity, it is particularly challenging to model and study the effects of the Scandes on the weather. The seas and oceans surrounding the Scandinavian region, steep mountains with abundant intersecting canyons, fjords, and peaks all affect the wind flow, changing it dynamically and thermodynamically. This study addresses the connection between the synoptic situation and downslope windstorms in four subsequently divided subdomains. Ten large-scale circulation types have been introduced to find potential regularity. After counting the number of downslope windstorms per season, a more detailed analysis of circulation types and subdomains of the winter seasons (DJF) was conducted. The results show that the downslope windstorms’ directions per subdomain and circulation types do not differ significantly. The temperature change in the regions of downslope winds was studied, i.e., if the wind has a bora or foehn character. It was shown how the circulation types on the subdomain do not differ from each other climatologically. To understand why that is, the analysis of individual dates which caused the highest number of downslope windstorms was conducted. Five examples were selected: dominant cooling, dominant heating, two dates where the clear difference between cooling and heating can be seen, and a heterogenous case. The consideration of the mentioned cases indicates the complexity of the situation and shows how numerous factors can play a significant role when trying to understand local meteorological phenomena like downslope windstorms.

With an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events due to global warming, the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) is always looking to improve its algorithms and warning system for such events. Part of the current biometeorological forecast and the Meteoalarm warning system are forecasts of heat waves and cold spells. In an attempt to improve these forecasts, DHMZ analyzed several thermal indices and implemented them operationally in test mode. Although there is no agreement on single comfort or physiological strain index to be used, Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) are well accepted worldwide. For example, the UTCI has been used in many countries for over 10 years. It integrates contemporary science to simulate the human response (physiological stress) to meteorological conditions by a sophisticated model. The meteorological data used for the calculation of UTCI are hourly NWP model values of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean radiant temperature. These predictions are calculated using NWP model ALADIN‟s export cycle 43, which is currently being tested at DHMZ. The UTCI is calculated for 30 locations in Croatia. The cases include heat waves and normal weather conditions. Strong wind episodes, such as local bora and jugo wind in coastal regions both in cold and warm seasons are also included, as well as moderate/strong wind in continental regions. Results for the cases of strong wind, especially in the cold season, show UTCI sensitivity to the wind. Finally, the UTCI values are compared with other biometeorological indices which are operational in DHMZ (e.g., Thermal comfort index and Physiological equivalent temperature) and simpler biometeorological indices (e.g., Heat Index in the warm season and Wind Chill index in the cold season).

The issue of marine forecasts in NIMH is carried out by the numerical wind- wave forecast system for the Black Sea, which was developed and improved through the years.The existing operational marine forecasting system is based on state of art numerical spectral wave models SWAN and WAVEWATCH III (WW3), providing 72-hours wind wave forecast for the Black Sea area. The input data for the system are the wind fields at 10 m over the sea surface provided by the atmospheric model ALADIN, specially set up for the Black Sea. The accuracy of the wind - wave forecast depends largely on the quality of the wind fields and the type of atmospheric models - global or regional. This paper present the results of the evaluation of the wind speed at 10 m from the regional atmospheric model ALADIN and HRES – a global atmospheric model with high spatial resolution of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The statistical assessment was made by comparing of modeled wind speed fields with satellites wind data (in near real time) at 10 m from ASCAT scatterometers of satelltes MetOP B and MetOP C over the Black Sea, which are disseminated by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), part of the Copernicus Program. The statistical results show a good agreement between the models and satellite measurements., {"references":["ALADIN,(2019). Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational. http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/aladin/spip.php?article259","Ardhuin, F, Bertotti L, Bidlot J-R, Cavaleri L, Filipetto V, Lefevre JM and Wittmann P., (2007), Comparison of wind and wave measurements and models in the Western Mediterranean Sea. Ocean Engineering 34 (3–4): 526–541.","Booij, N., Ris, R. C. and Holthuijsen L. H. (1999), \"A third-generation wave model forcoastal regions. 1. Model description and validation\", J. Geophys. Res., 104,7649–7666.","Dimitrova, M, Kortcheva A, Galabov V., (2013) Validation of the operational wave model WAVEWATCH III against altimetry data from Jason-2 satellite, Bul. J. of Meteo & Hydro 18/1-2 : 4-17.","Dimitrova, M., Galabov, V., Kortcheva, A. and Marinski, J. (2019). Use of Satellite Data in Marine Early Warning System Proceedings of the 14TH International MEDCOAST Congress on Coastal and Marine Sciences, Engineering, Management and Conservation, 22-26 October 2019, Marmaris, Turkey; Ozhan, E. (editor), MEDCOAST 19, vol. 1, pp. 139-150.","Dimitrova, M, Kortcheva A, Galabov V., (2019) Comparison of modeled wind speed fields with scatterometer wind data over the Black Sea Bul. J. of Meteo & Hydro, 23/2;1-19.","Galabov, V., Kortcheva A., (2013), The influence of the meteorological forcing data on the reconstructions of historical storms in the Black Sea, DOI:10.5593/SGEM2013/BC3/S15.006","Galabov, V., Kortcheva, A., Bogachev, A., andTsenova, B. (2015), \"Investigation of the hydro-meteorological hazards along the Bulgarian coast of the Black Sea by reconstructions of historical storms\",Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology, 16, 3, 1005-1015.","Holthuijsen, LH., Booji N. and Bertotti L., (1996), The Propagation of Wind Errors through Ocean Wave Hindcasts. Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering 118:184–189.","Kortcheva, A & Dimitrova M. & Galabov V. (2010), A wave prediction system for real time sea state forecasting in the Black Sea, Bul. J. Meteo & Hydro, 15/2, pp 66-80.","Kortcheva, A., V. Galabov, M. Dimitrova, A. Bogatchev, (2014), Hindcast of extreme hydro-meteorological events along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. In: proceedings of International Conference Analysis and Management of Changing Risks for Natural Hazards, 18-19 November 2014, Padua, Italy, AO6, 10-17.","Stoffelen,, A., and D. Anderson, (1997), Scatterometer Data Interpretation: Measurement Space and Inversion, J. Atmos. and Oceanic Tech.,14,1298-1313","Stoffelen, A., Portabella M., Verhoef A., Verspeek J., Vogelzang J., (2006), Mesoscale winds from the new ASCAT scatterometer, KNMI Res. Biennial Rep. 2005–2006, http://www.knmi.nl/research/biennial/05-06 ASCAT.pdf.","Stoffelen, A., Vogelzang J., Verhoef A., (2010), Verification of scatterometer winds, 10th Int. Winds Workshop, http://www.knmi.nl/publications/fulltexts/scat_iww10.pdf.","SWAN Team,(2019), \" SWAN Scientific and Technical Documentation,SWAN Cycle III version 41.31\", Delft University of Technology.","Tolman, H. L., 2009: User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III version 3.14. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB Tech. Note 276, 194 pp. + appendixes.","Umesha, P.A., Prasad K.Bhaskarana., K.G.Sandhyab, T.M.Balakrishnan Nairb, (2017), An assessment on the impact of wind forcing on simulation and validation of wave spectra at coastal Puducherry, east coast of India, Ocean Engineering Volume 139, 15 July 2017, pp. 14-32.","WMO, (1998), Guide to Wave Analysis and Forecasting, Vol. WMO 702 World Meteorological Organization ISBN 92-63-12702-6."]}

ObjectiveExperimental evidence suggests that the clinical manifestations of Triple A syndrome result from oxidative stress. Several conditions caused by oxidative stress display retinal involvement. Our objective was to assess the retina and optic nerve involvement in children with Triple A syndrome.MethodsEleven patients with genetically proven Triple A syndrome followed-up in our centre were approached for study participation. The main outcome was the measurement of the thicknesses of the different retinal layers by Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT).Results9 patients with triple A syndrome had OCT measurements. 7 patients were children and 2 were adults; 4 were females and 5 were males. The 7 paediatric patients had at least two OCT measured at a mean interval of 7.9 months after the first one. The average Retinal Nerve Fibre Layer thickness was 74 ± 10 µm in patients compared to the paediatric reference range of 100 ± 2 µm (pConclusions and RelevanceThis is the first study to document retinal layer thicknesses in a series of patients with Triple A syndrome. Nearly all retinal thickness and peripapillary RNFL measurements were very significantly inferior to the reference range in Triple A patients, whatever their age. RNFL thinning was more marked at the temporal part of the optic nerve. OCT being non-invasive, it represents a promising tool to assess the severity of neurodegeneration in patients with Triple A syndrome.

U prvom dijelu ovog rada opisan je sustav mezoskalne asimilacije podatka uspostavljen za regionalni numerički model atmosfere ALADIN-HR (operativna konfiguracija na Državnom hidrometeorološkom zavodu). Izrađena je validacija utjecaja asimilacijskog sustava na kvalitetu prognoze. Rezultati su pokazali da postoji doprinos kvaliteti prognoze temperature i relativne vlažnosti na 2 m tijekom cijelog prognostičkog razdoblja, dok je za visinska polja on vidljiv za prve sate integracije modela. Promatranjem jedne vremenske epizode kada je zabilježena značajna količine oborine pokazalo se da je korištenjem asimilacije podataka dobivena realističnija struktura oborine. Drugi dio rada produbljuje razumijevanje utjecaja metode za procjenu matrice kovarijanci pogrešaka pretpostavljenog stanja (B matrica) na njena obilježja, na analizu i kvalitetu prognoze. Napravljen je proračun B matrice na tri načina: NMC metodom - NMC, ansambl metodom s perturbiranim bočnim rubnim uvjetima (BRU) – ENSLBC te ansambl metodom bez perturbacija BRU – ENS. Dijagnostička usporedba je pokazala da ansambl B matrice imaju uže horizontalne i vertikalne korelacije, manje standardne devijacije po vertikali, manje relativne doprinose varijanci na velikim skalama te pomak krivulje korelacije prema manjim skalama u odnosu na NMC B matricu. Perturbacije BRU kod ENSLBC B matrice utječu na povećanje relativnog doprinosa varijanci za velike skale ali isto tako malo utječu na pogreške pretpostavljenog stanja specifične vlažnosti (veći utjecaj ima odabir metode). Eksperimenti s asimilacijom jednog mjerenja korištenjem NMC i ENSLBC B matrice pokazali su da se najveće razlike u strukturi inkremenata javljaju za specifičnu vlažnost. Također, najveća razlika i bitno veći inkrementi analize dobiveni su za specifičnu vlažnost kada je korištena NMC B matrica u odnosu na ENSLBC B matricu. Utjecaj B matrice na kvalitetu prognoze pokazao je da ENSLBC B matrica unaprjeđuje prognozu naoblake, oborine i srednjeg tlaka na razini mora. Također, pozitivno utječe na prilagodbu modela na početne neravnoteže. U zadnjem dijelu rada prikazane su mogućnosti poboljšanja prognoze korištenjem asimilacije radarskih mjerenja u modelu malog prostornog koraka za slučaj olujnog nevremena na području Hrvatske. Rezultati su pokazali da bez korištenja asimilacije podatka simulacija razvoja i kretanje oluje, ali također i odgovarajućih okolišnih uvjeta, nije bila zadovoljavajuća. Asimilacija površinskih mjerenja dala je odgovarajuću prostornu raspodjelu atmosferskih polja važnih za konvektivne procese. Bez toga, model malog koraka mreže, čak i uz korištenje asimilacije radarskih podataka, ne simulira dobro razvoj oluje. Najbolja simulacija dobivena je korištenjem asimilacije površinskih i radarskih mjerenja. (Short summary from Extended abstract) In this study data assimilation system implemented at DHMZ was described. Special focus was given to the estimation of the B matrix and study of its characteristics depending on the method used for estimation. The influence of the LBC perturbations was also assessed. Influence on analysis and quality of forecast confirmed that, showing that the ensemble B matrix has a positive influence on initial model balances and quality of the model forecast. The influence of radar data assimilation was evaluated for a severe convective storm that hit the northern part of Croatia. Results demonstrated the importance of data assimilation of radar, but also conventional data.

Extreme events are expected to be more frequent and intensified in the future as a consequence of global warming. Therefore, the algorithm for calculating heat waves and cold spells that are part of biometeorological forecast in the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) as well as the Meteoalarm warning system, needs further improvement. For that purpose, DHMZ wants to implement operational UTCI forecasting being that the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) has been in use for over 10 years and it's based on contemporary science to simulate the human response by sophisticated model. UTCI was calculated for 30 locations in Croatia. The meteorological data used for the calculation of UTCI were hourly model values of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean radiant temperature. Analysis of forecasted UTCI values was done for cases of strong local bora and jugo wind in coastal regions in cold and warm seasons as well as moderate/strong wind in continental regions ; heat wave and normal weather conditions. UTCI values are compared with other biometeorological indices which are operational in DHMZ (Thermal comfort index and Physiological equivalent temperature) and simpler biometeorological indices such as Heat Index in the warm season and Wind Chill index in the cold season. Results for the cases of strong wind, especially in the cold season, show UTCI sensitivity to the wind in comparison with other indices and leaves the interpretation of such values of UTCI debatable.

In many engineering domains, systems are composed of partially independent subsystems—power systems are composed of distribution and transmission systems, teams of robots are composed of individual robots, and chemical process systems are composed of vessels, heat exchangers and reactors. Often, these subsystems should reach a common goal such as satisfying a power demand with minimum cost, flying in a formation, or reaching an optimal set-point. At the same time, limited information exchange is desirable—for confidentiality reasons but also due to communication constraints. Moreover, a fast and reliable decision process is key as applications might be safety-critical. Mathematical optimization techniques are among the most successful tools for controlling systems optimally with feasibility guarantees. Yet, they are often centralized—all data has to be collected in one central and computationally powerful entity. Methods from distributed optimization control the subsystems in a distributed or decentralized fashion, reducing or avoiding central coordination. These methods have a long and successful history. Classical distributed optimization algorithms, however, are typically designed for convex problems. Hence, they are only partially applicable in the above domains since many of them lead to optimization problems with non-convex constraints. This thesis develops one of the first frameworks for distributed and decentralized optimization with non-convex constraints. Based on the Augmented Lagrangian Alternating Direction Inexact Newton (ALADIN) algorithm, a bi-level distributed ALADIN framework is presented, solving the coordination step of ALADIN in a decentralized fashion. This framework can handle various decentralized inner algorithms, two of which we develop here: a decentralized variant of the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) and a novel decentralized Conjugate Gradient algorithm. Decentralized conjugate gradient is to the best of our knowledge the first decentralized algorithm with a guarantee of convergence to the exact solution in a finite number of iterates. Sufficient conditions for fast local convergence of bi-level ALADIN are derived. Bi-level ALADIN strongly reduces the communication and coordination effort of ALADIN and preserves its fast convergence guarantees. We illustrate these properties on challenging problems from power systems and control, and compare performance to the widely used ADMM. The developed methods are implemented in the open-source MATLAB toolbox ALADIN-𝛼—one of the first toolboxes for decentralized non-convex optimization. ALADIN-𝛼 comes with a rich set of application examples from different domains showing its broad applicability. As an additional contribution, this thesis provides new insights why state-of-the-art distributed algorithms might encounter issues for constrained problems.

Background The elucidation of pathomechanisms leading to the manifestation of rare (genetically caused) neurological diseases including neuromuscular diseases (NMD) represents an important step toward the understanding of the genesis of the respective disease and might help to define starting points for (new) therapeutic intervention concepts. However, these “discovery studies” are often limited by the availability of human biomaterial. Moreover, given that results of next-generation-sequencing approaches frequently result in the identification of ambiguous variants, testing of their pathogenicity is crucial but also depending on patient-derived material. Methods Human skin fibroblasts were used to generate a spectral library using pH8-fractionation of followed by nano LC-MS/MS. Afterwards, Allgrove-patient derived fibroblasts were subjected to a data independent acquisition approach. In addition, proteomic signature of an enriched nuclear protein fraction was studied. Proteomic findings were confirmed by immunofluorescence in a muscle biopsy derived from the same patient and cellular lipid homeostasis in the cause of Allgrove syndrome was analysed by fluorescence (BODIPY-staining) and coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) microscopy. Results To systematically address the question if human skin fibroblasts might serve as valuable biomaterial for (molecular) studies of NMD, we generated a protein library cataloguing 8280 proteins including a variety of such linked to genetic forms of motoneuron diseases, congenital myasthenic syndromes, neuropathies and muscle disorders. In silico-based pathway analyses revealed expression of a diversity of proteins involved in muscle contraction and such decisive for neuronal function and maintenance suggesting the suitability of human skin fibroblasts to study the etiology of NMD. Based on these findings, next we aimed to further demonstrate the suitability of this in vitro model to study NMD by a use case: the proteomic signature of fibroblasts derived from an Allgrove-patient was studied. Dysregulation of paradigmatic proteins could be confirmed in muscle biopsy of the patient and protein-functions could be linked to neurological symptoms known for this disease. Moreover, proteomic investigation of nuclear protein composition allowed the identification of protein-dysregulations according with structural perturbations observed in the muscle biopsy. BODIPY-staining on fibroblasts and CARS microscopy on muscle biopsy suggest altered lipid storage as part of the underlying disease etiology. Conclusions Our combined data reveal that human fibroblasts may serve as an in vitro system to study the molecular etiology of rare neurological diseases exemplified on Allgrove syndrome in an unbiased fashion.

The original justification of setting up a Harmonic Bias Estimator (HBE) was the need to correct Aeolus winds for potential harmonic contributors to the wind bias, which could be for example induced by pointing and thermal effects that depend on the latitudinal position of the satellite. Since Aeolus is an Earth Explorer mission and the first of its kind, i.e. due to lack of heritage, the construction of the HBE was based on theoretical assumptions about the harmonic errors, on best knowledge from models and on end-to-end simulations. However, reality proved to be more complicated. The current performance of the HBE is assessed and limitations of the purely latitude-based HBE are presented in order to explain why a correction via harmonic bias estimation is not the preferred option for the current systematic Rayleigh wind speed errors. On the basis of real Aeolus observations, it was found that the systematic Rayleigh wind speed error is strongly correlated with small variations in the temperature distribution across the primary mirror (M1) of Aeolus’ telescope. These temperature variations are a function of Earth’s outgoing short and longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere and cause minimal distortions of the telescope structure. As a consequence, the wind bias shows complex patterns along the orbit that depend on latitude as well as on longitude. These patterns cannot be captured by the HBE approach. Methods are presented which correct for the distortion effect by applying a regression of the wind bias on the M1 temperature measurements contained in the housekeeping data. The improvement for the different approaches will be discussed, including the operational implementation. Thereby, an effective bias correction via the M1 temperature might pave the way for new findings on Aeolus’ wind bias dependencies and for a potential subsequent application of an HBE in the future aiming at any remaining biases.

Approaching an anaesthetic respirator (or a workstation for the finer ones) is to approach a relatively new machine: the current models are presented with futuristic designs, showing a variety of screens and little lights, and look more like a Tesla vehicle console than a patient ventilation device. The truth is that the technology of a respirator rests more on mechanical aspects than on electronic aspects. And next to the respirator is almost always the vaporizer. The anesthetic vaporizer has become a fundamental element in the design of a respirator and represents the work of an anesthesiologist in the operating room. The purpose of this paper is to show something more about the evolution and functioning of these devices. An engineering design that accompanies our professional life., Acercarnos a un respirador anestésico (o bien, a una estación de trabajo para los más finos) es acercarnos a una maquinaria relativamente reciente. Y a pesar de que los actuales modelos se presentan con diseños futuristas, mostrando variedad de pantallas y lucecitas, acercándolos más a la consola de un vehículo Tesla que a un dispositivo para ventilar pacientes, la verdad es que la tecnología de un respirador descansa más sobre aspectos mecánicos que sobre aspectos puramente electrónicos. Y junto al respirador está, casi siempre, el vaporizador. El vaporizador anestésico se ha convertido en un elemento fundamental dentro de la obra de ingeniería que es un respirador y representa, en sí mismo, la labor de un anestesiólogo en quirófano. Hay que admirar también cómo su funcionamiento tiene mucho de física y poco de electrónica siendo el propósito de este escrito mostrar algo más sobre la evolución y el funcionamiento de estos aparatos que nos acompañan en nuestra vida profesional.

Flash floods are common in small Mediterranean watersheds and the alerts provided by real-time monitoring systems provide too short anticipation times to warn the population. In this context, there is a strong need to develop flood forecasting systems in particular for developing countries such as Morocco where floods have severe socio-economic impacts. In this study, the AROME (Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale), ALADIN (Aire Limited Dynamic Adaptation International Development) and WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) meteorological models are evaluated to forecast flood events in the Rheraya and Ourika basin located in the High-Atlas Mountains of Morocco. The model evaluation is performed by comparing for a set of flood events the observed and simulated probabilities of exceedances for different precipitation thresholds. In addition, two different flood forecasting approaches are compared: the first one relies on the coupling of meteorological forecasts with a hydrological model and the second one is a based on a linear relationship between event rainfall, antecedent soil moisture and runoff. Three different soil moisture products (in-situ measurements, European Space Agency&rsquo, s Climate Change Initiative ESA-CCI remote sensing data and ERA5 reanalysis) are compared to estimate the initial soil moisture conditions before flood events for both methods. Results showed that the WRF and AROME models better simulate precipitation amounts compared to ALADIN, indicating the added value of convection-permitting models. The regression-based flood forecasting method outperforms the hydrological model-based approach, and the maximum discharge is better reproduced when using the WRF forecasts in combination with ERA5. These results provide insights to implement robust flood forecasting approaches in the context of data scarcity that could be valuable for developing countries such as Morocco and other North African countries.

Results from a 3D numerical simulation of wind-induced currents and pollution spreading from a sewage outfall are described.The goal was to predict seawater sanitary quality in the Rijeka Bay, Adriatic Sea. A sea motion model was coupled with a modelof transport and chemical reactions of fecal coliforms (FC), fecal streptococci (FS) and dissolved oxygen. The selected simulationperiod of 36 hours following wastewater discharge was found to be sufficient for a significant extinction of bacteria. The simulationwas carried out for eight wind directions and two intensities (moderate and high). Mesh convergence was obtained. Twomesh sizes were coupled: coarse, for the whole Bay, and fine, for the northern part of the Bay, close to the sewage discharge ofthe Rijeka city.For all considered wind directions, the pollution plume with a concentration higher than 100 FC and 100 FS per 100 ml of seawateris conveyed mostly parallel to the coast in either north-west or south-east directions. The plume does not rise to the surfacebut stays at the depth of 10 to 20 meters. This is a consequence of the hydrodynamics of the Rijeka Bay: the bora wind carriesthe surface water layer out of the Bay through the Middle and Great Gates, while cold water enters the Bay from the layer belowthe thermocline. During the southern wind (jugo), the situation is reversed: warmer surface water enters the Bay through eitherthe Middle Gate or the Great Gate, while cold seawater exits through the bottom layer, accumulating warmer seawater in the Bay.The conclusion is that the Rijeka city sewage discharge Delta is well-designed, and the microorganism concentration is wellwithin the suggested regulatory range. The discharge site is far enough from the coast, where local streamlines are mostly parallelto the coast, hence the elevated pollution concentration does not come close to swimming and recreational areas. Even if thedischarge increases by 50%, which is unlikely in the near future, the pollution at beaches will stay within regulatory boundaries.

Background: Membrane-associated progesterone receptors are restricted to the endoplasmic reticulum and are shown to regulate the activity of cytochrome P450 enzymes which are involved in steroidogenesis or drug detoxification. PGRMC1 and PGRMC2 belong to the membrane-associated progesterone receptor family and are of interest due to their suspected role during cell cycle. PGRMC1 and PGRMC2 are thought to bind to each other; thereby suppressing entry into mitosis. We could previously report that PGRMC2 interacts with the nucleoporin ALADIN which when mutated results in the autosomal recessive disorder triple A syndrome. ALADIN is a novel regulator of mitotic controller Aurora kinase A and depletion of this nucleoporin leads to microtubule instability. Results: In the current study, we present that proliferation is decreased when ALADIN, PGRMC1 or PGRMC2 are over-expressed. Furthermore, we find that depletion of ALADIN results in mislocalization of Aurora kinase A and PGRMC1 in metaphase cells. Additionally, PGRMC2 is over-expressed in triple A patient fibroblasts. Conclusion: Our results emphasize the possibility that loss of the regulatory association between ALADIN and PGRMC2 gives rise to a depletion of PGRMC1 at kinetochore fibers. This observation may explain part of the symptoms seen in triple A syndrome patients., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Objective To study genotype–phenotype spectrum of triple A syndrome (TAS). Methods Retrospective chart analysis of Indian TAS patients (cohort 1, n = 8) and review of genotyped TAS cases reported in world literature (cohort 2, n = 133, 68 publications). Results Median age at presentation was 4.75 years (range: 4–10) and 5 years (range: 1–42) for cohorts 1 and 2, respectively. Alacrima, adrenal insufficiency (AI), achalasia and neurological dysfunction (ND) were seen in 8/8, 8/8, 7/8 and 4/8 patients in cohort 1, and in 99, 91, 93 and 79% patients in cohort 2, respectively. In both cohorts, alacrima was present since birth while AI and achalasia manifested before ND. Mineralocorticoid deficiency (MC) was uncommon (absent in cohort 1, 12.5% in cohort 2). In cohort 1, splice-site mutation in exon 1 (p.G14Vfs*45) was commonest, followed by a deletion in exon 8 (p.S255Vfs*36). Out of 65 mutations in cohort 2, 14 were recurrent and five exhibited regional clustering. AI was more prevalent, more often a presenting feature, and was diagnosed at younger age in T group (those with truncating mutations) as compared to NT (non-truncating mutations) group. ND was more prevalent, more common a presenting feature, with later age at onset in NT as compared to T group. Conclusion Clinical profile of our patients is similar to that of patients worldwide. Alacrima is the earliest and most consistent finding. MC deficiency is uncommon. Some recurrent mutations show regional clustering. p.G14Vfs*45 and p.S255Vfs*36 account for majority of AAAS mutations in our cohort. Phenotype of T group differs from that of NT group and merits future research.

The HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX) is intended to improve the capabilities of predicting high-impact weather events. Within its framework, the aim of the first special observation period (SOP1), 5 September to 6 November 2012, was to study heavy precipitation events and flash floods. Here, we present high-impact weather events over Croatia that occurred during SOP1. Particular attention is given to eight intense observation periods (IOPs), during which high precipitation occurred over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps. During the entire SOP1, the operational model forecasts generally well represented medium intensity precipitation, but heavy precipitation was frequently underestimated by the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing and was overestimated at a higher resolution (2 km grid spacing). During IOP2, intensive rainfall occurred over a wider area around the city of Rijeka in the northern Adriatic. The short-range maximum rainfall totals were the largest ever recorded at the Rijeka station since the beginning of measurements in 1958. The rainfall amounts measured in intervals of 20, 30 and 40 min were exceptional, with return periods that exceeded a thousand, a few hundred and one hundred years, respectively. The operational precipitation forecast using the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing provided guidance regarding the event but underestimated the rainfall intensity. An evaluation of numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the forecast was slightly enhanced by improving the initial conditions through variational data assimilation. The operational non-hydrostatic run at a 2 km grid spacing using a configuration with the ALARO physics package further improved the forecast. This article highlights the need for an intensive observation period in the future over the Adriatic region to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical weather predictions via data assimilation and model improvements in descriptions of microphysics and air–sea interactions.

Prognoza vremena temelji se na produktima numeričkih modela za vremensku prognozu. Vremenske prilike koje imaju značajan utjecaj na sigurnost mogu biti karakteristične za neku zemlju ili regiju te njihova prognoza može zahtjevati specifične postavke modela u obliku rezolucije i kompleksnosti modela. U Državnom hidrometeorološkom zavodu operativna numerička prognoza vremena koristi model ALADIN. Parametrizirane procese opisujemo takozvanom fizikom modela, npr. zračenje, mikrofiziku oblaka, konvekciju, turbulenciju, orografiju itd. Opis tih procesa vezan je s dinamikom modela preko sučelja u kojem određene fizičke procese možemo uključiti ili isključiti pomoću logičkih prekidača. U radu koristimo nehidrostatički model ALADIN rezolucije 2 km u području djelomično razlučene konvekcije i ALARO fizički paket. Uključivanjem i isključivanjem advecije i semi-lagrangijanske difuzije na prognostičkim varijablama (kiša, snijeg, led oblaka i voda oblaka) gledamo što se događa s konvekcijom, odnosno prognoziramo konvekciju. Promatrano je preko deset slučajeva za koje je napravljeno četiri eksperimenta. Odabrana su dva slučaja, odnosno datuma, prezentirana i diskutirana u ovom radu. Weather forecasting is based on the products of numerical models for weather forecasts. Weather circumstances that have significant impact on security may be characteristic of a country or region and their forecast may require specific model settings in the form of resolution and complexity of the model. In the (DHMZ), the operating numerical forecast uses ALADIN model. Parametrized processes are described by the so called model physic, e.g. radiation, cloud microphysics, convection, turbulence, orography, etc. The description of these processes is related to the dynamics of the model through an interface in which certain physical processes can be switched on or off by means of logic switches. In this paper we use the non-hydrostatic 2 km resolution prognosis in the field of partially resolved convection and the ALARO physical package. Activation and exclusion of advection and semi-lagrang diffusion of prognostic variables (rain, snow, cloud ice, cloud water), we analyze process of convection in numerical model. Over ten cases were observed for which four experiments were made. Two cases were selected, i.e. two dates, presented and discussed in this paper.

Cilj ovog rada bio je pokušati pronaći prikladan parametar za prognozu udara bure na Zračnoj luci Dubrovnik (ZLD) iz ALADIN modela rezolucija 4 km i 8 km. U tu svrhu korišteni su podatci epizoda bura u razdoblju od 15. prosinca 2017. do 31. ožujka 2018. izmjereni pomoću dva anemometra na ZLD. Iz izmjerenih podataka je izračunata kinetička energija turbulencije (TKE) i viskozna disipacija ɛ. Potvrđena je linearno rastuća veza izmjerenih udara i √TKE kao i ɛ ~ TKE3/2. Iz spomenutog slijedi da je ɛ1/3 proporcionalan brzini udara što je i povrđeno. Uspoređeni su TKE ALADIN-a s izmjerenim TKE-om, kao i horizontalna komponenta brzine vjetra ALADIN-a s brzinom udara i izmjerenim TKE. Usporedbe su napravljene u vremenskoj domeni i pomodu dijagrama raspršenja. U vremenskoj domeni pokazalo se da modelirane veličine ne procjenjuju dobro varijacije izmjerenih veličina. Dodatno, TKE ALADIN-a redovito potcjenjuje izmjereni TKE. U dijagramima raspršenja, pokušano je statistički pristupiti prognozi izmjerenih veličina pomodu modeliranih. Pokazalo se da su problemi takvom pristupu velika varijanca medijana dijagrama raspršenja i na nekim područjima povedan interkvartilni raspon. Uočena je sličnost oblika krivulja dijagrama raspršenja izmjerenih veličina i veličina iz modela vezanih uz N tip i SM tip bure (N tip je otvoreni tip bure koji se proteže kroz cijelu troposferu, a SM tip se odnosi na standardni model). Postavilo se pitanje jesu li spomenuti oblici posljedica varijance uzorkovanja ili su posljedica toga da N tip i SM tip bure imaju svoju fenomenologiju. U tu svrhu, proveden je test usporedbom krivulja dijagrama raspršenja oba tipa bure s nasumično odabranim skupovima bura. Za N tip je potvrdeno da oblik krivulje nije posljedica varijance uzorkovanja, dok za SM tip zbog premalog uzorka ne-SM tipa bure nije se moglo ništa zaključiti. The goal of this paper is to try and find the most adequate ALADIN model parameter for forecasting bora gusts at Dubrovnik Airport. Data used came from two anemometers placed at Dubrovnik Airport during the period of December 15th 2017 - March 31st 2018. Turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) was calculated as well as its viscous dissipation rate ε. Several links were confirmed: linear relationship between bora gust speed and √TKE and ɛ1/3 as well as ɛ1/3 proportionality with bora gust speed. In time domain and using scatter plots, we compared various variables: TKE parametrised from ALADIN with TKE derived from measurements, ALADIN horizontal wind component with gust speed and measurement-derived TKE. Modeled variables do not successfully estimate those derived from measurements in time domain. Additionally, ALADIN TKE typically underestimates measured TKE. A statistical approach was used concerning scatter plots. Forecasting using statistical approach was found to be defective due to large median variance and, for certain values, increased interquartile range. We also observed similar shapes of the curves regarding N and SM types of bora wind in scatter plots (N type bora extends through the entire troposhere, and the SM type refers to standard model bora). A question arised whether the aforementioned shapes were the result of sampling variance or the phenomenology of bora types. Curves associated with N and SM boras were compared with randomly selected bora episodes. For the N type, it has been successfully verified that the shape of the curve is not a consequence of sampling variation, while for the SM type no conclusion was found owing to too small non-SM type sample size.

Pijavice su, u usporedbi s nekim drugim meteorološkim pojavama, razmjerno rijetka pojava. Ipak njihova učestalost u Jadranu nije zanemariva te je kroz ovaj rad predstavljena njihova čestina u razdoblju od 2001. do 2013. godine. Ovo istraživanje, temeljeno na velikoj bazi podataka o pijavicama, po prvi put daje detaljan uvid u prostornu i vremensku raspodjelu njihove pojave duž istočne obale Jadranskog mora. Prilikom prikupljanja podataka korišteno je mnogo izvora, od službenih podataka Državnog hidrometeorološkog zavoda (DHMZ), do dojava pristiglih putem ankete za građane na mrežnim stranicama DHMZ-a, koja je aktivna od 2011. godine. Osim prostorne i vremenske raspodjele opisani su sinoptički uvjeti koji pogoduju nastanku pijavica, ali i uvjeti na manjoj skali koji uključuju termodinamičke i kinematičke osobine okolne atmosfere. Za analizu događaja korištene su prizemne i visinske sinoptičke karte Njemačke meteorološke službe (njem. Europaischer Wetterbericht–Deutscher Wetterdienstes, DWD), podaci međunarodnog sustava za detekciju munja LINET (od engl. LIghnting NETwork) te podaci radiosonaža s portala Sveučilišta u Wyomingu (engl. University of Wyoming ). Osim navedene analize kojom je utvrđeno da se pijavice jednoliko javljaju duž obale tijekom cijele godine, ipak najčešće u ljetnim mjesecima kada je prisutno jugozapadno visinsko strujanje, testiran je i jedan prognostički indeks, tzv. Szilagyiev prognostički indeks (SWI, engl. Szilagyi Waterspout Index). Prognoza nemezociklonalnih tornada koja su najčešća u Jadranu vrlo je zahtjevna, pa je testiranje i razvijanje alata koji bi bili od operativne pomoći vrlo bitno. Stoga je prognostička metoda ispitana s dva numerička modela, ALADIN-HR8-om (franc. Air Limitee Adaptation Dynamique development InterNational) koji je operativni model na DHMZ-u i WRF-om (engl. Weather Research and Forecasting) koji se koristi za istraživanje i prognozu vremena, a ima vrlo visoku prostornu i vremensku razlučivost. U oba testiranja uspješnost SWI-a je bila velika (za ALADIN 15 od 19 slučajeva i za WRF 9 od 10 slučajeva). Na kraju su prikazani primjeri prognoza za slučajeve opaženih pijavica te su diskutirana ograničenja i mogućnosti daljnjeg razvoja prognostičke metode. Extended abstract in thesis

In the Mediterranean region, floods are causing extended damages to the population and infrastructures. In Morocco, only a few studies have been conducted to understand flood processes while the vulnerability to floods is high. The goals of this study are to compare two modeling approaches for floods using either lumped or spatial rainfall and also to evaluate hydrological forecast capabilities. The Rheraya research catchment is characterized with steep slopes, altitudes ranging from 1027 to 4167 m, and a strong variability of rainfall. The lumped and distributed models provided similar results and reproduced well a sample of six flood events recorded in 2014. However, the distributed model provided the best estimation of the initial conditions, estimated from the ESA-CCI satellite soil moisture product and the Antecedent Precipitation Index. The validation of the lumped and the distributed models, using ESA-CCI to initialize the models, provides a Nash coefficient of 0.61 and 0.63 respectively. Then, two meteorological forecasts provided by the AROME and ALADIN models were evaluated against observed precipitation to provide a hydrological forecast. The AROME forecast performed better but still with a strong bias compared to observed precipitation. Further research is needed to link quantitative precipitation forecasts with hydrological models in this type of catchment.