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Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-Bounds testing approach, and using GDP – excluding the contributions from oil and gas, as well as the financial services sector – as the growth indicator between 1969 and 2008, the paper establishes a long-run relationship between economic growth and financial liberalisation, which is represented by an index. This index is calculated by using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The paper finds that financial liberalisation policies have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria – both in the short run and in the long run. The study, therefore, recommends that appropriate financial liberalisation policies should be pursued in Nigeria, in order to foster economic growth. However, considering the fact that financial markets are prone to market failures, the study cautions against adopting a laissez-faire approach to financial reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article examines the relationship between stock market development and sustainable economic growth in Ghana. The study employs the recently developed ARDL-bounds testing approach and multidimensional stock market development proxies to examine this linkage. The article finds that in the long run, stock market developments and capital account liberalization policies have no positive effect on economic growth in Ghana. This finding supports the numerous past studies, which have reported negative or inconclusive results on the effects of stock market development on economic growth. The article, therefore, concludes that it is the increase in credit to the private sector, rather than stock market development that drives the real sector development in Ghana. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study examines the relationship between banks, stock markets and economic growth in South Africa. The study attempts to answer one critical question: are stock markets and banks complementary to one another in the process of enhancing economic growth? The complementarity between the stock markets and banks is examined by including a set of interactive terms in a standard growth model, alongside bank development and stock market development proxies. In order to test the robustness of the results, three proxies of stock market development have been used, namely stock market capitalization, stock market traded value and stock market turnover – against the ratio of bank credit to the private sector, a proxy for bank-based financial development. The economic growth is, however, proxied by real GDP per capita. Using the ARDL-Bounds testing procedure, the study finds that the complementarity between stock market development and bank-based financial development is weak and sensitive to the proxy used to measure stock market development. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study examines the nexus between inflation dynamics and economic growth in South Africa. Specifically, the study aims to assess whether the inflation Granger-causes economic growth in South Africa. In order to address the problem of omitted variable bias associated with some previous studies, the study incorporates the employment as a third (intermittent) variable affecting both inflation and economic growth - thereby creating a trivariate causality model. Using the recently developed ARDL-bounds testing approach, the study finds that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between inflation and economic growth in South Africa. The results apply, irrespective of whether the causality model is estimated in the short run or in the long run. Other results show that there is a prima facie causal flow from economic growth to employment in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the long-run relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in Kenya during the period 1980-2008. The study incorporates energy consumption in the analysis as an intermittent variable - thereby creating a trivariate model. Using the ARDL-Bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran et al. (2001), the study finds that there is a distinct unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to CO2 emissions in Kenya in the short run. However, in the long run there is no causality between CO2 emissions and economic growth in either direction. Other results show that there is a short run unidirectional causal flow from energy consumption to CO2 emissions, a short run bi-directional causality between energy consumption and economic growth, and a long run unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to energy consumption. The empirical findings of this study imply that Kenya can pursue carbon emissions reduction policies without necessarily compromising its long-term growth trajectory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study has examined the relationship between tourism development, employment and economic growth - using the recently developed ARDLbounds testing procedure. Specifically, the study attempts to examine whether the development of tourism sector in Zambia leads to economic growth. In an attempt to redress the weakness associated with a bivariate analysis, the study incorporates labor force participation as a third variable in a trivariate setting. The empirical results show that there is a distinct causal flow from tourism development to economic growth in Zambia. In the main, the results of this study support the tourism-led growth hypothesis. The findings of this study are not only consistent with the previous studies on this subject, but also support the current Zambian government initiative of boosting the tourism sector in order to promote economic growth. Other results show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from labor force participation to economic growth - and from tourism development to labor force participation. These results apply, irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run or in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of financial liberalization policies in Nigeria. The study incorporates the role of both interest rate liberalization and capital account liberalization in a stylized fashion. The study finds that financial liberalization policies on the whole have had positive effects in Nigeria. Following the liberalization of the financial sector in Nigeria, there has been a general increase in financial saving. Likewise, financial deepening as measured by the ratio of money and quasi money (M2) to gross domestic product (GDP) also shows a general increase following the liberalization of the financial sector in Nigeria. However, the study has also brought to light some of the weaknesses of the financial liberalization hypothesis. For example, the policy overlooks the issue of foreign currency deposits in the domestic banks and the monetary policies associated with such deposits. However, recognizing these draw-backs does not make the hypothesis deficient in any way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of interest rate reforms on financial deepening and economic growth in Kenya, using two models: the financial deepening model and the dynamic Granger causality model. The study attempts to answer two critical questions: Does interest rate liberalization in Kenya have any positive influence on financial deepening? Does the financial depth which results from interest rate liberalization lead to economic growth? Using cointegration and error-correction models, the study finds strong support for the positive impact of interest rate liberalization on financial deepening in Kenya - although the strength and clarity of its efficacy is sensitive to the level of the dependency ratio. The study also finds financial depth to Granger cause economic growth in Kenya. The study, therefore, concludes that the interest rate liberalization in Kenya has succeeded in increasing economic growth through its influence on financial depth. This applies irrespective of whether the models are estimated in a static long-run formulation (cointegration model) or in the dynamic formulation (error-correction model). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, two models have been used to test the relevance of McKinnon's complementarity hypothesis in Kenya. In the first model, the demand for money has been included in the savings function and, simultaneously, the savings rate has been included in the real money balances function. In the second model, the investment variable has been included in the money demand function. Contrary to the results obtained from some previous studies, the paper finds strong support for McKinnon's complementarity hypothesis in both models. This applies irrespective of whether the models are estimated in a static long-run formulation (cointegration model) or in the dynamic formulation (error correction model). The paper therefore concludes that money and physical capital are complementary in Kenya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study assesses how ICT modulates the effect of inequality on female economic participation in a panel of 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2004–2014. Three inequality indicators are used, namely: the Gini coefficient, the Atkinson index and the Palma ratio. The adopted ICT indicators are mobile phone penetration, internet penetration and fixed broadband subscriptions. Three gender economic inclusion indicators are also used for the analysis, namely: female labour force participation, female unemployment and female employment. The Generalised Method of Moments is employed as empirical strategy. The findings show that enhancing ICT beyond certain thresholds is necessary for ICT to mitigate inequality in order to enhance gender economic participation. First, for female labour force participation, a minimum threshold of 165.714 mobile phone penetration per 100 people is required for the Palma ratio. Second, minimum ICT thresholds for the reduction of female unemployment are: (i) 87.783, 107.486 and 152.500 mobile phone penetration per 100 people for respectively, the Gini coefficient, the Atkinson index and the Palma ratio; (ii) 39.618 internet penetration per 100 people for the Atkinson index and (iii) 4.500 fixed broadband subscritptions for the Palma ratio. Third, the corresponding ICT thresholds for the promotion of female employment are: (i) 120.369 and 85.533 mobile phone penetration per 100 people for respectively, the Gini coefficient and the Atkinson index and (ii) 30.005 internet penetration per 100 people for the Gini coefficient. The established thresholds make economic sense and can be feasibly implemented by policy makers in order to induce favourable effects on gender economic inclusion dynamics. • The study assesses how ICT modulates the effect of inequality on female employment. • The focus is on 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2004–2014. • The Generalised Method of Moments is employed as an empirical strategy. • ICT thresholds that mitigate inequality to promote female employment are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research assesses how information and communication technology (ICT) modulates the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth dynamics in 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980–2014. The employed economic growth dynamics are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, real GDP and GDP per capita while ICT is measured by mobile phone penetration and internet penetration. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. The study finds that both internet penetration and mobile phone penetration overwhelmingly modulate FDI to induce overall positive net effects on all three economic growth dynamics. Moreover, the positive net effects are consistently more apparent in internet-centric regressions compared to "mobile phone"-oriented specifications. In the light of negative interactive effects, net effects are decomposed to provide thresholds at which ICT policy variables should be complemented with other policy initiatives in order to engender favourable outcomes on economic growth dynamics. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed. • The research assesses how ICT modulates the effect of FDI on economic growth dynamics. • The focus is on 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980–2014. • The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. • ICT modulates FDI to induce overall positive net effects on economic growth dynamics. • Given negative marginal effects, ICT thresholds for complementary policies are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the role of governance in modulating the effect of capital flight on industrialisation in Africa. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments and governance is bundled by principal component analysis, namely (i) political governance from political stability and "voice and accountability"; (ii) economic governance from government effectiveness and regulation quality; and (iii) institutional governance from corruption-control and the rule of law. First, governance increases industrialisation whereas capital flight has the opposite effect; and second, governance does not significantly mitigate the negative effect of capital flight on industrialisation. Policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tsionas has offered a more revisionist approach to the empirics of the nexus between financial development and economic growth following our paper entitled 'Financial development and economic growth nexus: A revisionist approach'. In the current note, we engage Tsionas' approach in tandem with our original finance–growth nexus review. We concur with Tsionas' approach and reiterate that the debate on the relationship between financial development and economic growth remains a complex terrain both on the theoretical and empirical fronts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing body of evidence that interest rate spreads in Africa are higher for big banks compared to small banks. One concern is that big banks might be using their market power to charge higher lending rates as they become larger, more efficient, and unchallenged. In contrast, several studies found that when bank size increases beyond certain thresholds, diseconomies of scale are introduced that lead to inefficiency. In that case, we also would expect to see widened interest margins. This study examines the connection between bank size and efficiency to understand whether that relationship is influenced by exploitation of market power or economies of scale. Using a panel of 162 African banks for 2001-2011, we analyzed the empirical data using instrumental variables and fixed effects regressions, with overlapping and non-overlapping thresholds for bank size. We found two key results. First, bank size increases bank interest rate margins with an inverted U-shaped nexus. Second, market power and economies of scale do not increase or decrease the interest rate margins significantly. The main policy implication is that interest rate margins cannot be elucidated by either market power or economies of scale. Other implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Razprava obravnava naključno povezavo med zmanjševanjem revščine in gospodarsko rastjo v Svaziju v obdobju 1980-2011. Trenutna študija, za razliko od nekaterih predhodnih študij, omenjeno povezavo obravnavana podlagi novega pristopa h kointegraciji s testiranjemna podlagi avtoregresijskega modela z razporejenimi odlogi in Grangerjevo metodo vzročnosti, ki temelji na modelu popravljanja napak (ECM). Raziskava vključuje tudi finančni razvoj, ki vpliva tako na zmanjševanje revščine kot na gospodarsko rast, in s tem vzpostavlja model s tremi spremenljivkami. Rezultati študije so pokazali, da gospodarska rast po Grangerjevi metodi ne povzroča zmanjševanja revščine v Svaziju, ne na kratki ne na dolgi rok. Študija namreč kaže na naključno prehajanje od zmanjševanja revščine h gospodarski rasti na kratki rok. Te ugotovitve zaradi visoke stopnje dohodkovne neenakosti v Svaziju niso presenetljive. Raziskave so pokazale, da v primeru previsoke stopnje dohodkovne neenakosti gospodarska rast ne vodi nujno v zmanjšanje revščine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to empirically determine the symmetric and asymmetric causal relationship between banking regulation and bank credit delivery using a context of 23 sub-Saharan African countries from 1995 to 2017. The estimated symmetric and asymmetric error correction-based multivariate panel Granger-causality models allowed for both long-run and short-run causal relationships. The results generally supported the existence of long-run symmetric and asymmetric causality between banking regulatory measures, bank credit delivery and two intermittent variables, namely, economic growth and inflation. In the short run, bidirectional symmetric causality existed between banking entry barriers and bank credit delivery, as well as a one-way symmetric causal flow running from bank credit delivery to banking capital regulations. Moreover, positive shocks to bank credit delivery Granger caused negative shocks to banking entry barriers, activity restrictions or capital regulations, while negative shocks to mixing of banking and commerce restrictions Granger caused positive or negative shocks to bank credit delivery. The findings highlight that policymakers should take into consideration not only the symmetric but also the asymmetric causal effects of reforms aimed at enhancing banking regulation and such reforms should be well-targeted and well-designed for them to stimulate bank credit delivery., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

This study evaluates the relationship between industrial development, urbanization and pollution emission in Africa. The IPAT identity was used to examine the impact of industrial development and urbanization on pollution emissions. The validity of the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH) was also tested by comparing the econometric results of panel Pool Mean Group (PMG)-based autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) for the period 1990-2019. The PMG results confirm the validity of the EKC and PHH in the countries under study in the long run when the entire panel was estimated. One of the major contributions of the study is to analyze the impact of urbanization and industrialization on carbon emissions. The results show that an increase in urbanization and industrialization leads to an increase in environmental degradation for the entire panel. This paper presents significant contributions to economic policy, showing that an association exists between industrial development, urbanization and pollution emission in Africa., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2022 The Authors.)

This study investigates the short- and long-run determinants of gold price movements in financial markets by taking into account multiple structural breakpoints using an ARDL-based error correction approach. The study used daily time series data from December 19, 2018 to May 15, 2020. The key variables used include international stocks and bond funds that are frequently traded on stock exchanges around the world. The results, based on the fourth breakpoint regime, reveal a significant positive relationship between gold price movements and LSE, Nikkei stocks, T.Rowe global multi-sector bond funds, and CBOE volatility index; and a significant negative association with Gmo emerging country debt and Pimco emerging markets local currency bond funds both in the short- and long-run. Other stocks, like NASDAQ, DJI, S&P500, only revealed negative short-run relationships; except for NYSE that was found to have a positive short-run association with gold price movements. Conversely, Goldman Sachs bonds revealed a significant positive long-run relationship with gold price movements. These results have significant policy implications for gold producers and investors, as both stocks and bonds are an important source of information in the determination of gold price movements both in the short- and long-run., (© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)