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In ideal condition, mine closure happen when reserves exhausted but closure may be premature. Since premature and unplanned closure can cause adverse impacts on the environment and community, therefore it should be managed appropriately. The effect of this negative impact can be reduced by using risk evaluation techniques. One of the more important tools to quantity risk is risk matrix. This method requires a team of key personnel to generate a number of possible hazards with a process of equipment and quantifying the likelihood or probability and the consequence of that event occurring. In Iran, approximately 40% of abandoned mines are stone quarries and main reasons of closure are marketing and economic issues. The aim of this paper is deliberating reasons of closing dimensional stone quarries in Iran and calculating factor of closure in Atashkooh quarry, using risk matrix. Closure coefficient has significant potential as a tool for decision maker to evaluate closure risk and applying required strategy for mining activity. For this purpose, existing risks in this stone quarry determined and by quantitative data, factor of closure is obtained. The results of study show that, closure risk factor of Atashakooh quarry is 582 that confirms medium closure issues at this mine.

Self-defense centers around the concept of measure and then countermeasure. Every attack can be blocked by the right countermeasure, done correctly at precisely the right time. But an ineffective block, one either too slow or overdone, can expose you to the attack or a follow-up attack.

Mining sector has a major role in the economy of many countries whereas mine closure has negative effect. Exhausting the reserve of a mine is not commonly the reason for mine closure. Unplanned mine closure is happened by imperative reasons such as economic, environmental and social aspects. Applying the risk management techniques, can reduce the negative impact of unplanned mine closure. The aim of this study, is designing of a new and general model for calculating the risk of mine closure and estimating a safety factor for investment in mining projects. Using the statistical analysis and MADM methods, risk matrix method is developed and its compounds (probability and intensity), are calculated. In this model, the kind of mineral is added to risk matrix and the risk of mine closure is calculated for each kind of minerals. Finally, after measuring the risk factor (R), model is suggested a safety factor (S=1+R) that is used for investment in mining projects. According to this factor, an additional investment is calculated and it is added to total investment. This additional investment is paid to reduce the risk of mine closure. For validation of the model, 1359 premature mine closure events of Iran are investigated and risk of mine closure is calculated for each kind of minerals. It has found that, the risk factor of unplanned mine closure in Iran quarry mines is 7.62% and safety factor of investment is 1.0762.

This article describes the applications of a hydro-geomorphologic disaster database allowing a more appropriate local risk management. Two databases of loss and damage with different criteria, using Central Portugal occurrences, were constructed upon national and regional newspapers: one included all the disaster occurrences regardless of the level of loss and damage reported and the other only the major disasters for which casualties and other human losses were reported. Risk matrices, exploring likelihood and consequence, were analysed along with data regarding urban and demographic dynamics over time and risk profiles by municipality were obtained. The results show that the database which only included major disasters produced a risk matrix with lower levels of risk in comparison to the one produced from the more inclusive database. The most densely urbanised municipalities represent a greater number of disaster occurrences, but when considering only major losses, other peripheral municipalities emerge as high risk. Changes in territorial forcers are shaping the impact patterns in the region. Along with an increase in the housing density, an increase in disasters is observed, although the decrease of inhabitants. Impacts and territorial forcers cluster analysis and risk matrices’ results conduced to municipal risk profiles supporting management. Those profiles conduce to different frames of action from specific emergency planning, warning and alert, multi-hazard planning, or prevention measures involving land use planning or insurance and mutualisation solutions. Disaster databases that allow differentiating local patterns of impacts–and their respective contexts - contribute to define locally adequate risk management policies.

Risk assessment is important for ranking risks properly and allocating limited resources to mitigate critical risks. The paper reviews the risk assessment approaches with a focus on the advantages, limitations and applications of the Risk Matrix Approach (RMA). The paper then proposes an extended risk matrix approach (ER-MA) for supply chain risk assessment. The purpose is to overcome the limitations of traditional RMA, enrich the features and improve its applicability in supply chain risk management (SCRM). In the proposed approach, new dimensions of risk metrics — detectability and recoverability — are incorporated to capture the complexities of supply chain risks which are important to supply chain managers. The new approach is tested out in a case study of a MNC supply chain and the key findings are presented.

This article is devoted to the problems of risk management of public-private partnerships. The author identifies five stages of the risk management process characterized by PPP and the whole cycle of the process. Particular attention is given in the article categories of risks of public-private partnership and a key factor in their evaluation. In addition, emphasis is placed on the methods of assessment of probability and consequences of risks, as well as sources of information about them. The article outlines the main steps in the order determining the allocation of risks between the project partners. The author proposes the use of a matrix of risk PPPs. The essence of the proposed matrix is the need to identify the range of risks that can arise at each phase of the project of public-private partnership, set out the best positions of the parties with respect to their distribution, are summarized in tabular form., Статья посвящена проблемам управления рисками проектов государственно-частного партнерства. Автор выделяет пять этапов процесса управления рисками ГЧП и характеризует весь цикл указанного процесса. Особое внимание в статье уделяется категориям рисков проектов государственно-частного партнерства и ключевым факторам их оценки. Кроме того, делается акцент на методах оценки вероятности и последствий рисков, а также на источниках информации о них. В статье рассматриваются основные шаги в порядке определения распределения рисков между партнерами проекта. Автор предлагает применение матрицы рисков ГЧП. Сущность предложенной матрицы заключается в необходимости выявления диапазона рисков, которые могут возникнуть на каждой фазе проекта государственно-частного партнерства. Лучшие позиции сторон и их распределение обобщено в виде таблицы., Стаття присвячена проблемам управління ризиками проектів державно-приватного партнерства. Автор виокремлює п'ять етапів процесу управління ризиками ДПП та характеризує весь цикл зазначеного процесу. Особлива увага в статті приділяється категоріям ризиків проектів державно-приватного партнерства та ключовим факторам їх оцінки. Крім того, увагу акцентовано на методах оцінки вірогідності й наслідків ризиків, а також на джерелах інформації про них. У статті розглядаються основні кроки в порядку визначення розподілу ризиків між партнерами проекту. Автор пропонує застосування матриці ризиків ДПП. Сутність запропонованої матриці полягає в необхідності виявлення діапазону ризиків, які можуть виникнути на кожній фазі проекту державно-приватного партнерства. Найкращі позиції сторін та їх розподіл узагальнено у вигляді таблиці.

Risk assessment and risk matrices are powered tools used in risk management and help guide in the process of decision-making in organisations. Nevertheless, risk matrices have their own weaknesses and strengths. This paper provides a critical overview of the development and use of risk matrices in different field with an example of the risk matrix used by the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Risk matrices are helpful tools for risk assessment as they use quantitative measures to ensure consistent method of determining risk but organisations should adjust the design and size of risk matrices to suit their needs.

Utility functions in the form of tables or matrices have often been used to combine discretely-rated decision-making criteria. Matrix elements are usually specified individually, so no one rule or principle can be easily stated for the utility function as a whole. A series of five matrices are presented which aggregate criteria two at a time using simple rules which express a varying degree of constraint of the lower rating over the higher. A further nine possible matrices were obtained by using a different rule either side of the main axis of the matrix to describe situations where the criteria have a differential influence on the outcome. Uncertainties in the criteria are represented by three alternative frequency distributions from which the assessors select the most appropriate. The output of the utility function is a distribution of rating frequencies that is dependent on the distributions of the input criteria. In Pest Risk Analysis (PRA), seven of these utility functions were required to mimic the logic by which assessors for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation (EPPO) arrive at an overall rating of pest risk. The framework enables the development of PRAs which are consistent and easy to understand, criticise, compare and change. When tested in workshops, PRA practitioners thought that the approach accorded with both the logic and the level of resolution which they used in the risk assessments

This paper examines the potential risk of using controlled implosions as a new technique to securely seal an offshore leaking oil pipe. Massive amount of toxins and radioactive waste are produced by offshore oil leaks. These leaks can have negative impact on marine life and can threaten the stability of the ocean’s ecosystem. In the past few years, there were several oil leak accidents that had left an overwhelming impact. Identifying potential impact and consequences to the proposed risk mitigation technique, to both the environment and the surrounding infra structure, is crucial to emergency response and crisis management teams. In order to equally quantify and communicate the probable impact of the proposed controlled implosion technique, a one-to-five risk / consequence assessment scale was created. The optimal explosive configuration is being investigated by the Mining Engineering Department at Missouri S&T. Their research outcome, as well as this one, can potentially mitigate the damage of an offshore oil leak disaster in the future.

This article describes the difference between the current and the new version of IEC 60601-1 from the aspect of the certification laboratories [1]. With the paradigm of the risk management included in the third edition of this standard, certification laboratories were forced to change their way to conduct their tests. It also has to invest in training people certified to analyze a qualitative risk matrix and a risk chart, not forgetting the tools used to estimate risk. This article will also shows an exemplification of certification for an ECG machine following the second and the third edition of this standard, so that the differences between the new and the current versions will be clearer.

Part 8: Information Systems and Applications; International audience; Within implementation of Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council 2007/06/ES of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks the classification was recommended to Czech Republic which sorties the areas affected by floods according to the degree of threat and economic potential of these areas. For this purpose was developed the model of territory unit evaluation. This model is formulated as a combination of two models including model of risk matrix and model of the area value expressed by available statistical data. These data reflect the different levels of areas development and their possible future development through weighted multi-criteria decision making. The aim of our paper is to present the model and its use in terms of increasing the efficiency of spending resources in area in relation to flood protection. The model may serve as an inspiration in terms of use for such a large territorial units in European countries applying the Directive.

Master's thesis in Petroleum engineering The risk matrix (RM) is a widely espoused approach to assess and analyze risks in the oil & gas (O&G) industry. RMs have been implemented throughout that industry and are extensively used in risk-management contexts. This is evidenced by numerous SPE papers documenting RMs as the primary risk management tool. Yet, despite this extensive use, the key question remains to be addressed: Does the use of RMs guide us to make optimal (or even better) risk-management decisions? We have reviewed 30 SPE papers as well as several risk-management standards that illustrate and discuss the use of RMs in a variety of risk-management contexts, including HSE, financial, and inspection. These papers promote the use of RMs as a “best practice.” Unfortunately, they do not discuss alternative methods or the pros and cons of using RMs. The perceived benefit of the RM is its intuitive appeal and simplicity. RMs are supposedly easy to construct, easy to explain, and easy to score. They even might appear authoritative and intellectually rigorous. Yet, the development of RMs has taken place completely isolated from academic research in decision making and risk management. This paper discusses and illustrates how RMs produce arbitrary decisions and risk-management actions. These problems cannot be overcome because they are inherent in the structure of RMs. In their place, we recommend that O&G professionals rely on risk- and decision-analytic methods that rest on over 300 years of scientific thought and testing.

This study is based on the theories of terrestrial exploration risk in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Using ArcGIS and modelling methods, the spatial distributions of resources and environmental carrying capacity, terrestrial exploration dynamics, and terrestrial exploration potential are studied and evaluated in an integrated way. The results of the study are as follows: Mashan county, Longan county, Luchuan county, et al. have some low-risk land that can be explored, and infrastructure investment should be increased in these locations. Whereas, low-risk terrestrial development is possible in Qinzhou city, Heng county, Longan county, et al. and should be carried out in a planned and gradual fashion. The medium risk regions are distributed all over the region, but are concentrated in the city area of Nanning. However, the middle and north parts of Yulin city, the south part of Chongzuo city, Qinnan district, et al. are also in the same category and priority can be given to improve the quality and efficiency of these regions. The high risk regions, mainly distribute in the Liangqin district, Yining district, Binyang county, et al. This region should focus on the development principles of priority protection, appropriate development, and point-like development. Whereas, the extremely-high-risk areas, of which more than 60% are in Tiandeng county, Daxin county, Shanglin county, et al., are unsuitable for further development. The three-dimensional risk matrix method can make up for the deficiencies of other methods and has broad prospects in regional terrestrial development risk assessment.

Risk assessment is defined to measure the probability and security of risk resources synthetically. In this paper, risk assessment theory is employed firstly to maintenance tactics of transformer, the probability and severity of all failure modes of transformer are measured synthetically, and risk maintenance tactics of usual transformer's failure modes are obtained .Based on these, 5×5 risk matrix and 4 kinds of risk ranges are adopted to express the risk of all transformer's failure modes, and responding risk maintenance strategies are obtained; finally, a example is analysis to verify the correctness of the risk assessment frame and risk maintenance strategies. And the Visual Basic language and the Access database are applied in this paper to design the MIS of the transformer risk management.

La presente investigación se aplica con base a la normatividad vigente en Control Interno que se debe tener en cuenta para atender los informes que de la oficina en cuestión se generen por las visitas administrativas de auditoría. En el marco teórico se presentan el concepto de Control Interno conforme a la Ley 87 de 1993, igual que sus principios, objetivos, naturaleza y componentes de aplicación, esto con el fin de hacer un preámbulo a la investigación. Posteriormente se abarca el tema de los conceptos de matriz de riesgos y matriz de plan de mejoramiento los cuales constituyen las herramientas de carácter gerencial a tener en cuenta para observar los riesgos que de las visitas se derivan y la aplicabilidad y seguimiento que debe realizarse. Con el ánimo de observar la aplicabilidad se anexan las correspondientes matrices con sus respectivos ámbitos de diligencia. This research is applied based on the current regulations in internal control that must be taken into account to address the reports of the office in question are generated by administrative audit visits. The theoretical framework presents the concept of internal control pursuant to Act 87 of 1993, like his principles, objectives, nature and application components, this in order to make a preamble to the investigation. Subsequently, the subject covers the concepts of risk matrix and improvement plan matrix which constitute the character management tools to consider the risks to observe the visits are derived and the applicability and monitoring to be performed. With the aim of observing the corresponding applicability matrices are appended to their respective fields of care. Especialista en Administración Financiera

This article collected 199 cases of domestic natural gas pipeline leakage accidents, and used the mathematical methods and SPSS statistical analysis software to analysis these accident cases. Based on the analysis of accidents statistics and disaster reduction factors, the natural gas pipeline risk rating assessment method based on accident statistics was proposed according to Risk value method and Risk matrix analysis. Taking the gas pipelines in a certain city for example, the risk grade of the pipeline was analyzed by the method proposed in this article, and more rigorous and effective measures to reduce the pipeline risk were proposed.

‘ … risks created by the Games are significant, diverse and complex ’ (NSW Audit Office 1999, p. 142).

Safety should be considered and addressed in the whole life cycle of a process system or facility. They are many established methodologies to identify, analyze, prioritize and manage risks arising from different stages. One of the design methodologies to reduce and eliminate root causes of hazards during design stage is known as Inherent Safety (IS). The principles to defining IS were formalized by Prof. Trover Kletz and were further developed into guidelines that are more definitive by a number of researchers. An inherently safer process plant could be designed if the information on risk levels, likelihood and severity could be known earlier at the preliminary design stage. The risk levels, likelihood and severity could be reduced or eliminated by applying the principle of inherent safety in the design. However, process designers normally lack of information on risk levels, likelihood and severity from process plant during preliminary design stage. This information is available once Quantitative Risk assessment (QRA) study is completed at the end of detail design stage prior to plant construction as required by law. Therefore, this research aims to overcome this problem by developing an inherent risk tool that can determine the risk levels, likelihood and severity early in the preliminary process design stage and at the same time to provide the opportunity for process designers to apply inherent safety principles for inherently safer process design.

The problem of secure operation system risk management is difficult to evaluate quantitatively, a quantitatively risk assessment model for the operating system is proposed in this paper. Through introducing the risk matrix, putting the information safety risk assessment as the risk evaluation model by experts matrix. Borda rule and AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) assess the risk assessment process, and achieve the quantitative evaluation of the secure operation system risk management, enhancing the objectivity of the operating system risk quantitative evaluation. In conclusion, the application evaluation model is validated by the examples, and the experimental results show that the model can effectively assess the operating system security risk levels.

China railway covers broad region, connects countless urban and rural, passes through complex climate and geographical environment, and suffers several internal and external risks. It can ensure safety of the whole railway if we establish risk assessment system based on the natural disaster and monitor the real-time risk. In this paper, we deeply analyzed the railway incidents caused by disaster, abstracted 3 meteorological factors and 5 geological factors closely related to incident. Then we collected enough historical data, established the relationship between the meteorological factors and the incident's probability by curve fitting and grey relational analysis. We analyzed the quantitative relationship between the geological factors and the incident's strength by AHP. Finally, we build a complete Risk Assessment System base on the Probability-Strength Matrix referring to Risk Matrix Theory. The system can provide real-time forecasting and warning for China railway.

Based on the analysis of the campus network system risk and its impact factors of a university, we evaluated seven major risk factors of campus network systems with the risk matrix method. Furthermore, a risk matrix applied to a campus network risk assessment is built and the basic procedure of the risk assessment with the risk matrix is well designed, in order to provide a scientific, reasonable and effective evaluation method for the campus network system risk assessment. Through the practical application, it demonstrates that the evaluation results of this method are more reasonable and objective than those of traditional ones.

Actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders are often used in high-stakes decision making and therefore should be subject to stringent reliability and validity testing. Furthermore, those involved in the risk assessment of sexual offenders should be aware of the factors that may affect the reliability of these instruments. The present study examined the interrater reliability of the Risk Matrix 2000/s between one field rater and one independent rater with a sample of more than 100 sexual offenders. The results indicated good interrater reliability of the tool, although reliability varies from item to item. A number of factors were identified that seem to reduce the reliability of scoring. The present findings are strengthened by examining interrater reliability of the tool in the usual practitioner context and by calculating a range of reliability statistics. Strategies are suggested to increase reliability in the use of actuarial tools in routine practice.

Publikācijas mērķis ir izanalizēt jautājumus saistībā ar nepieciešamību pilnveidot risku vadības funkcijas saskaņā ar Maksātspējas II direktīvu, kuras pamatā ir risku vadības sistēmas principi maksātspējas jomā katrai dzīvības apdrošināšanas sabiedrībai, kura darbojas Eiropas Savienības teritorijā. Autori, balstoties uz izanalizētajiem normatīvajiem dokumentiem un apdrošināšanas sabiedrības darbības analīzes rezultātiem, ir identificējuši esošos riskus un piedāvājuši risku kataloga izveidošanas pamatprincipus, kas ir viens no risku vadības funkciju uzlabošanas mehānismiem. Uz risku kataloga pamata ir izveidota risku matrica, kuras analīze ir viena no riska vadības sastāvdaļām. Autori izklāsta informāciju par kļūdu reģistra izveidošanas un vadības pamatprincipiem MS Excel vidē, lai izveidotu izejošo datu statistisko bāzi operacionālā riska vadībai.

This paper considers the challenge of balancing safety and hazard risks for protective systems in hostile military environments. Current military standards and risk of death statistics from operations are compared against the civil standards and risks. As military protection systems may introduce new hazards the paper looks at how the additional risk is balanced by the decrease in risk in the hostile military environment (e.g. improved survivability). The paper proposes a rescaling of the generic risk matrix to aid decisions on balancing the hazard risk introduced by the system against the additional protection provided in a hostile environment. The rescaling is based on the different peacetime and hostile environment risks. The dangers and overuse issues of risk matrices are also discussed. (5 pages)

The European Railway Agency (ERA) has the challenging task of establishing common safety targets (CSTs) and common safety methods (CSMs) throughout Europe. In this context, the harmonization of risk matrices is also discussed. The purpose of this paper is to provide a formal justification of risk matrices for technical systems and the means by which compliance with legal and regulatory requirements can be demonstrated. A proposal for a standard risk matrix applicable to technical systems is derived.

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientador: Mestre Carlos Manuel Antunes Mendes Submitted by Iolanda Valente (ivalente@iscap.ipp.pt) on 2013-03-12T10:57:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DM_CarlaVale_2011.pdf: 1997028 bytes, checksum: 346941926a8e952137013afe31a8f2bb (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2013-03-12T10:57:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DM_CarlaVale_2011.pdf: 1997028 bytes, checksum: 346941926a8e952137013afe31a8f2bb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011

Risk Based Inspection (RBI) is an emerging method of inspection, which integrates risk along with current deterministic approaches for prioritizing and managing the efforts of an inspection program. A pilot study on implementation of RBI was conducted in a hydrogen sulphide based chemical plant in India. The RBI study was reviewed by the regulatory authority. This paper highlights the modification done based on the safety issues brought out during the review of the RBI study done in the hydrogen sulphide based plant and formulates the methodology for applying RBI in Indian scenario.

This paper describes the author’s experiences of a test approach that has been used in the development and maintenance of a medical X-ray device used for surgical operations. It describes the activities that are performed during the preparation, execution and reporting phase of the test process, focusing on the test activities taking place in the software and the system part of the development project. Several safety related activities are executed by other disciplines, e.g. the regulatory office or hardware department, but this paper focuses on the daily work of software test engineers and system test engineers: Is their test process comparable to the process followed by other non-safety related projects? What are the specific requirements of the test process in a safety-critical environment? Are the test results documented in the same way? Is the complete system tested with maximum coverage? Are certain test-techniques preferred?

On the basis of analyzing the outsourcing risk events, which are the loss of competitiveness, decreasing of service quality, cost of underlying transition and management, cost increasing from contract revision, lawsuits from disputes and conflicts, obstacles of communication and feedback, “lock-in” from outsourcing vendor etc., the paper has a study on quantitative evaluation to outsourcing risk by the method of risk matrix. The outsourcing risk is divided into 4 grades, they are perfect outsourcing grade, feasible outsourcing grade, considerable outsourcing grade and unsuitable outsourcing grade. Then the paper does application analysis, which confirms the risk matrix is an operable and effective method for evaluating outsourcing risk of enterprise. Finally, the paper puts forward key strategies on how to control the risks.

The urban gas pipeline is buried underground. It is in a certain pressure and its medium is flammable and explosive easily, which threatens safety of personnel and property around the pipeline greatly. A new safety management method of urban gas pipelines is proposed by analyzing the relationship between safety management and risk management. With the engineering example in a certain city, the potential risks are estimated by the application of risk matrix and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which can determine the nature of risks and take reasonable measures to achieve the purposes of safety management.

This paper offers an overview of the concept of acceptable risk. Variations in the definition of risk are addressed as well as criteria for measuring and evaluating risk. Risk acceptance depends on many factors, some of which are highlighted. The myth of zero risk is addressed with relevant examples such as dioxin and the U.S. space program. Practical applications of acceptable risk concepts are discussed, featuring the RISK MATRIX from system safety MIL-STD-882. Some sample guidelines and benchmarks are offered.

265, 118 adults aged 40 and above in 6 Prefectures in Japan were followed up for 17 years and age standardized mortality rates from each cause of death were compared by life style variables studied at the time of enrollment. Multifactor-multidisease risk matrix thus constructed revealed that out of 44 causes of death 65.9% and 0% of them showed significantly higher and lower risk respectively in daily cigarette smokers while 2.3% and 34.1% of them showed significantly higher and lower risk respectively in daily consumers of green-yellow vegetables. Possible mechanisms of such associations and effective strategies achieving healthy aging were discussed based on these results.

The key point of every safety process is hazard identification and management. This is required by many related standards and shall be performed for every project. It’s often a challenge to find all possible hazards in advance but it’s possibly an even bigger challenge to manage all hazards over a wide range of products and projects.

With the increasing popularization of the urban buried gas pipeline, accidents are occurred usually. Once the pipeline failed in operation, it can produce leakage serious consequence, as the fire and explosion and so on, and the consequence involves security of resident life and property loss, and affects the social stability, therefore the safe operation of urban buried gas pipeline is extremely important. The factors effected failure of pipeline are complicated and varied, and most of them have getting fuzzy because of complicated underground environment in city, meanwhile, the factors caused failure consequence are uncertain because of various states on ground. Article takes risk study on buried gas pipeline in service more in a city as an example, and the failure possibility and failure consequence of buried gas pipeline are expressed and evaluated with fuzzy language and fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, and illustrated the risk grade of buried gas pipeline with risk matrix according to API, and obtained risk grades of various pipe element of pipeline, some measures are adopted according to the different risk grades to perfect integrality management of pipeline, and to decrease the operation risk of pipeline, and to ensure operation safely of the urban buried gas pipeline.

Introduction Classical risk management includes three main phases:a hazard assessment including a hazard analysis (hazard characterization and frequency analysis) and a consequence analysis (consequence scenario and severity of consequences),a risk assessment (risk estimation and tolerance criteria), anda proper risk management plan through mitigation and feedback. These phases must be sequential but also iterative (Fig. 1). The hazard assessment gathers, organizes and summarizes all data relevant to risk assessment and management. It includes qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the hazard, addresses uncertainties and provides a range of forecasts based on plausible scenarios. Forecasts may be established as far as historical data reaches back, in terms of intensity and occurrence. Such forecasts are commonly derived for extreme metocean conditions, earthquakes and slope instabilities. The hazard is characterized in terms of probability of a measurable physical parameter, exceeding a certain threshold, during a period of time. A recurrence interval (or return period) is then defined. However, if there is no past experience with a hazard, there is no basis for any forecast. Such a conventional probabilistic approach cannot be applied to non-recurrent geohazards like Gas Hydrates (GH). GH present an inherent risk with no basis in their level of predictability (i.e. no return period). The GH hazard analysis (and the possible consequences) should then be evaluated based on the degree of knowledge and the related uncertainties. The approach is qualitative or semi-quantitative, as in the case of GH a quantitative approach is generally limited by the lack of extensive and accurate data and by the spatial variability of factors and parameters. This paper will review GH proxies used to identify critical parameters and scenarios, with particular attention paid to the limitation and the uncertainties in each of the proxies. A GH hazard-consequence risk assessment matrix is proposed, to be used as part of a global risk management process during the different phases of a deepwater E&P project (drilling and field development). Knowledge and uncertainties All hazard characterization relies upon the degree of understanding of the process, referred to as " the knowledge??. In the " Guide to Managing Project Risks??, the Project Management Institute (1992) has defined the well established " knowledge concept?? as follows. For the " known-knowns??, where all conditions are known and certain, decision making simplifies to an optimisation problem (if there is no uncertainty, there is no hazard). However, it may be impossible to remove all uncertainties, and there is a point where addition of more knowledge no longer reduces the uncertainty significantly. The " known-unknowns??, where we know a risk exists but we do not know how it may affect our facilities and where mitigation plans should be established. The " unknown-unknowns?? are catastrophic and unpredictable events. Uncertainty results from incomplete knowledge of a process and is related to our ability to understand, to measure and/or to describe the system. These uncertainties can be divided into three types:–Type 1: Uncertainties due to the variability of the earth, random by nature and inherent to the geological process that cannot be resolved even with additional data,–Type 2: Uncertainties characterized as ‘epistemic’, due to incomplete knowledge of geological process, which can be reduced through dedicated R&D projects, and in particular, model uncertainty that reflects the inability of a simulation model to represent precisely the true physical behaviour of the process,–Type 3: Uncertainties due to a lack of available / accurate data, and/or poor resolution. Such uncertainties include accuracy and precision of field data (measurement errors, limited, non-representative or unavailable data, data handling errors).

Risk matrices are tools for comparing risks relative to one another (e.g. within a single system) and hence being able to ‘rank’ them relative to each other for the purposes of risk mitigation and the allocation of safety resources. Risk matrices are not tools for determining the tolerability, or otherwise, of individual or ‘single risks’. However, the current trend of using risk matrices to determine whether individual risks are tolerable, and hence subject to ALARP arguments, stretches the risk matrix concept beyond its breaking point, and is thus leading to potentially misinformed decisions by senior managers regarding the true level of risk present, and hence whether risk reduction options are either needed or are reasonably practicable, across a range of projects for which they have responsibility.

Risk management is necessary on the basis that so many typical metro operation accidents and incidents have resulted in and from civil and foreign countries in recent years. The application of the risk management, proactive method and means in metro operation safety management is discussed. The idea is advanced that metro operation safety is managed on the basis of risk analysis; The Modified Risk Matrix, especially for the metro safety management, is built. On the base of risk analysis, control measures dealing with metro operation risks are presented.

The EU agricultural policy has recently been characterized by radical changes that increase market volatilities. Especially in the dairy market, fluctuating prices as well as production and political risks lead to high uncertainty for farmers. Based on a comprehensive survey, this paper discusses the risk perception and risk management strategies of dairy farmers in selected European countries. This approach allows a more detailed analysis of the determinants of farmers’ risk perceptions and risk management. First, based on the literature, a comprehensive framework was developed for the determinants of farmers’ risk perceptions and risk management. This framework guided an empirical study in 2007 in which 236 German dairy farmers were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire. Subsequently, parallel surveys have been conducted in the Netherlands, Ireland, Switzerland and France using case studies and expert interviews on dairy farmers’ risk management. The findings provide in-depth insights into the determinants of risk perception and risk management on dairy farms and the way risk management is integrated into the strategic management of those farms. The most important risks that dairy farmers currently perceive are various market risks followed by policy and production risks. Results show that future-oriented dairy farmers operate in a risk-conscious but not risk-averse way and selectively apply risk management strategies.