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Despite improvements in predicting the track and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs), these storms with major societal and economic impacts continue to pose challenges for statically provisioned computational resources. The number of active storms varies from day to day, leading to regular bursts of irregular computational loads atop an already busy production schedule for weather prediction centers. The emergence of high-resolution ensemble TC prediction to quantify the uncertainty in track and intensity exacerbates this problem by requiring multiple forecasts run for each storm, each representing a possible outcome. With more than a decade of progress in the literature describing research and real-time numerical weather prediction in the cloud, we set out to evaluate if the commercial cloud environment could cope with the unique demands of TC ensemble forecasts. We describe a demonstration using a high-performance computing environment within the Microsoft Azure cloud to test dynamic resource provisioning to address time-varying resource challenges. We deployed existing operational models, implemented a combination of vendor-provided and open-source tools to orchestrate the cycling production workflows, and developed techniques for automatic error handling to keep production on schedule with minimal operator intervention. Despite challenges, our production pipeline from data ingest, forecast integration, graphics generation, and dissemination via social media was able to produce real-time forecasts of storm track and intensity with product latencies commensurate with existing operational forecasting systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During hundreds of years, in large cities man has been forming a specific urban environment with original species composition of insect communities, including the most diverse group of predatory beetles – Staphylinidae family. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro are the three most populated cities of Ukraine. In the urban cenoses of these cities, over 140 species from 66 genera of Staphylinidae have been recorded. The total of 69 species (43 genera) were recorded in Kyiv, 67 (39 genera) in Dnipro and 66 (37 genera) in Kharkiv. Among them, , eight species in the catalogue of Palearctic staphylinds had not been previously recorded for Ukraine: Arpedium quadrum Grav., Atheta laticeps Thomson, Medon apicalis Kraatz, Ocalea rivularis Müll., Philonthus salinus Kiesenwetter, Quedius invreae Gridelli, Tasgius pedator Grav. and Xantholinus gallicus Coiffait. By number, common species accounted for 29 in Dnipro, 21 in Kyiv and 19 in Kharkiv. In all the metropolises, two species (Staphylinus caesareus Cederhjelm and Drusilla canaliculata (F.)) were identified as eudominants. Dominants and subdominants comprised 18–25 species. Almost two thirds of the fauna of staphylinids of the cities was classified as rare species. The lowest faunistic similarity was seen between the staphylinids of the urban cenoses of Dnipro and those in Kyiv and Kharkiv (15.3% and 17.5%), similarity was higher for Staphylinidae of Kyiv and Kharkiv (36.0%). Similarity by common species of staphylinids for Kyiv and Kharkiv equaled 73.9%, 28.2% for Dnipro and Kyiv and 37.1% for Dnipro and Kharkiv. The article offers a review of species diversity, number and ecological structure (biotopic confinedness, hygrothermal preference) of typical species of staphylinids in different urban cenoses of Kharkiv. Differences in qualitative-quantitative and ecological structures of staphylinids are related to the diversity of the conditions in a particular urban cenoses. The commonest representatives of the family in the metropolises were polytopic mesophilous carnivorous species.

Arctic cyclones may be associated with periods of locally enhanced sea ice loss during the summer, and some studies have found that an intense cyclone in August 2012 resulted in a rapid sea ice retreat. This study uses a coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐ice model (Navy‐ESPC) to explore the relationship between the 2012 cyclone and short‐term sea ice melting. There are two mechanisms of cyclone‐induced melting in Navy‐ESPC: turbulent mixing of a warm layer located at 15‐ to 35‐m depth increases bottom melting and warm air advection by the strong surface winds increases surface melting. Although the rate of sea ice melt is substantially increased in association with the cyclone, this effect is confined to a relatively small region and only lasts for a few days. There is no clear signature of the cyclone on the overall Arctic sea ice extent in Navy‐ESPC. Plain Language Summary: Cyclones (storms) over the Arctic Ocean may be associated with periods of locally enhanced sea ice loss during the summer, and some studies have found that an intense cyclone in August 2012 resulted in a rapid sea ice retreat. This study uses a computer model (Navy‐ESPC) that includes interactions between the atmosphere, the ocean, and the sea ice, to explore the relationship between the 2012 cyclone and short‐term sea ice melting. In this model, there are two mechanisms by which melting of sea ice is enhanced by the cyclone: (1) warm water from below is mixed upward, which increases the rate of melting on the bottom of the sea ice, and (2) warm air is brought northward by the strong winds of the cyclone, which increases the rate of melting on the top of the sea ice. These two mechanisms combine to substantially increase the rate of melting of sea ice, but the effect of the cyclone on the sea ice is confined to a relatively small region and only lasts for a few days. In this model, there is no clear effect of the cyclone on the overall extent of the sea ice over the Arctic Ocean. Key Points: Melting of sea ice in the Navy‐ESPC model is locally enhanced by an intense cycloneThe enhanced melting is short‐lived and spatially confinedOverall sea ice extent does not change in association with the cyclone [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a general overview of the superfamily Scarabaeoidea in five parks of Kharkov city and some adjacent agrocenosises. The species composition includes 32 species from four families of Scarabaeoidea. The Scarabaeidae family dominated in biodiversity and abundance (26 species from 16 genera). Six species (Dorcus parallelopipedus, Platyderes caraboides, Anoplotrupes stercorosus, Aphodius melanostictus, Pleurophorus caesus and Onthophagus coenobita) were sporadically registered as common, but in separate urban cenosises the number of species did not exceed one or three. The species composition and abundance of lamellicorn beetles was higher in large parks with only slight recreational disturbance. Here from 13 to 20 species were registered. On lawns in the center and in other districts of the city Scarabaeoidea species met very rarely. In the agrocenosises on the outskirts of Kharkov city – 16 species are noted, almost half of which were registered as common. The faunistic similarity of different urban cenosises was at low to medium levels (an average 0.20–0.47). These indices were slightly higher (0.38–0.67) for areas with lower recreational pressure. The indices of faunal similarity of separate parks and agrocenoses were lower (0.18–0.56, but on average – 0.33). At the level of common species, there was no faunistic similarity. The significance of such differences was due to both the low number of most Lamellicorn species and some of their ecological characteristics. The main differences were observed in the ratio of trophic groups and features of the spatial distribution of the dominant species. Smaller differences were observed on biotopic characteristic of most species. There were no differences in the hygropreference of the scarabeid species. In the parks herpetobiont saprophagous species dominated (mainly coprophagous and dendrophagous). In the agrocenoses, dendrochordobiontic phytophagous species predominated. The peculiarities of the ratio of different ecological groups of Scarabaeoidea in urban and agrocenosises are discussed.

The possibility of using two different isotopomers, for the incorporation of isotopically labeled amino acids, was explored to enable longitudinal studies of de novo synthesis of two export liver proteins, albumin and fibrinogen. The agreement of the synthesis rates between the two different labels was evaluated along with the reproducibility of repeated experiments using different time intervals. Healthy volunteers were studied in a standardized fed state. Protocol A (n = 10) involved two measurements 48 hours apart. Protocol B (n = 6) involved three measurements at baseline and five hours and then seven days after the initial measurement. De novo synthesis of albumin and fibrinogen by the incorporation of D5-phenylalanine or D8-phenylalanine were measured using the flooding dose technique. Albumin and fibrinogen were isolated from plasma using standard techniques. Fractional and absolute synthesis rates were calculated. Repeated measurements employing the two isotoptomers showed good agreement for albumin fractional synthesis rate after 48 hours (p = 0.92) and after 7 days (p = 0.99), with a coefficient of variation of 5.9% when using the same isotopic label. For fibrinogen, the coefficient of variation for the fractional synthesis rate employing the same isotopic label was 16.6%. Repeated measurements after 48 hours and seven days showed less agreement although there was no statistical difference (P = 0.32 and P = 0.30 respectively). Repeated measurement after five hours showed a statistical significant difference for the fractional synthesis rate of fibrinogen (p = 0.008) but not for albumin (p = 0.12). Repeated measurements of albumin de novo synthesis more than 48 hours apart show acceptable agreement using either one or two different isotopic labels. For fibrinogen the larger intra-individual scatter necessitates larger study groups to detect changes in longitudinal studies. Repeated measurements within 48 hours need to be validated further.

The article focuses on analysis of high-resolution observations for an intense tropical cyclone such as the 2015 Hurricane Patricia. Topics discussed include illustration of the Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) for early scientific highlights regarding prediction of the hurricane and cyclone; utilization of different research aircraft such as the WB-57 for attainment of resolutions; and observation of thermodynamic fields in an inner cores of Hurricane Patricia and Joaquin.

We completed a prospective study of 164 patients involved in a Clostridium difficile surveillance programme, evaluating a range of variables such as disease severity, treatment regimen and known clinical risk factors, for their effect on case lethality. The aim of this study was to determine if there are any additional clinical variables worth considering for inclusion in the therapeutic decision-making process. Beyond common risk factors, secondary immunodeficiencies such as diabetes mellitus, malignancy, autoimmune disease, immunosuppressive therapy and chronic hepatitis were assessed. Overall case lethality was 23%. There was a suggestion that regular proton pump inhibitor use in past medical history might be associated with greater lethality. Immunosuppressive therapy within 1 month before the onset of diarrhoea was associated with a significant four-fold lethality increase. This last finding may have the potential to further improve therapeutic judgement if used as an explicit component of a revised scoring system. In relation to Clostridium difficile-associated colitis, immunosuppressive therapy as a red flag entity, as described here, has not been previously published. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims: Since data is limited regarding the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Crohn's disease (CD) patients who present with stenosing disease in the colon, this study was undertaken to assess CRC risk in such patients, using a population-based, Veszprem province database, which includes incidental patients diagnosed between January 1, 1977 and December 31, 2011. Methods: Data from 640 incidental CD patients were analyzed (M/F ratio: 321/319, age-at-diagnosis: 28 years (IQR: 22-38)). Both hospital and outpatient records were collected and comprehensively reviewed. Results: CRC was diagnosed in six CD patients during a follow-up of 7759 person-years. Sixty-two patients presented with colonic/ileocolonic disease and a stenotic lesion in the colon with a follow-up of 702 personyears (median:10.5, IQR:5-16years). Colorectal cancer developed in 6.5% (equaling 0.57/100person-years), the SIR (6.53, 95%CI:2.45-17.4) was increased with four patients observed versus 0.61 expected. In a Kaplan- Meier analysis, the probability of developing CRC was 5.5% and 7.5% after 5- and 10 years, respectively, versus 0.4% in patients with other phenotypes (HR:18.8, p<0.001). A sensitivity analysis included patients with stenosing colonic lesion at diagnosis or during follow-up (n=91, follow-up:1180 person-years,median:12, IQR: 6-17 years). The probability of developing CRC was 3.6% and 4.9% after 5- and 10 years, respectively. Conclusions: The risk of CRC in CD patients presenting with or developing a stenotic lesion in the colon is high even after a short disease duration, suggesting the need for careful surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background and aims: Prior studies suggest a small but significantly increased risk of lymphoma in adults with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), especially in patients treated with thiopurines. No data was available from Eastern Europe. The aim of this study was to analyze the incidence of lymphomas as related to drug exposure, in a population-based Veszprem province database, which included incident cases diagnosed between January 1, 1977 and December 31, 2008. Methods: Data from 1420 incident patients were analyzed (UC: 914, age at diagnosis: 36.5years; CD: 506, age at diagnosis: 28.5.5years). Both in- and outpatient records were collected and comprehensively reviewed. The rate of lymphoma was calculated as patient-years of exposure per medication class, of medications utilized in IBD. Results: Of the 1420 patients, we identified three patients who developed lymphoma (one CLL, two low-grade B-cell NHL including one rectal case), during 19,293 patient-years of follow-up (median follow-up: 13years). All three patients were male. None had received azathioprine or biologicals. The absolute incidence rate of lymphoma was 1.55 per 10,000 patient-years, with 3 cases observed vs. 2.18 expected, with a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.44–4.26). No cases have been exposed to either azathioprine or biologicals. Conclusions: The overall risk of lymphoma in IBD was not increased; only three cases were seen in this population-based incident cohort over a 30-year period. An association with thiopurine exposure was not found. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

OBJECTIVES:Medical therapy for Crohn's disease (CD) has changed significantly over the past 20 years with increasing use of immunosuppressives. In contrast, surgery rates are still high and there is little evidence that disease outcomes for CD have changed over the past decades. The objective of this study was to analyze the evolution of the surgical rates and medical therapy in the population-based Veszprem province database.METHODS:Data of 506 incident CD patients were analyzed (age at diagnosis: 31.5 years, s.d. 13.8 years). Both hospital and outpatient records were collected and comprehensively reviewed. The study population was divided into three groups by the year of diagnosis (cohort A: 1977-1989, cohort B: 1990-1998 and cohort C: 1999-2008).RESULTS:Overall, azathioprine (AZA), systemic steroid, and biological (only available after 1998) exposure was 45.8, 68.6, and 9.5%, respectively. The 1- and 5-year probability of AZA use were 3.2 and 6.2% in cohort A, 11.4 and 29.9% in cohort B, and 34.8 and 46.2% in cohort C. In a multivariate Cox-regression analysis, decade of diagnosis (P<0.001, hazard ratio (HR)cohorts B−C: 2.88-6.53), age at onset (P=0.008, HR: 1.76), disease behavior at diagnosis (P<0.001, HRcomplicated: 1.76-2.07), and need for systemic steroids (P<0.001, HR: 2.71) were significantly associated with the time to initiation of AZA therapy. Early AZA use was significantly associated with the time to intestinal surgery in CD patients; in a multivariate Cox analysis (HR: 0.43, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.28-0.65) and after matching on propensity scores for AZA use (HR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.26-0.67).CONCLUSIONS:This population-based inception cohort has shown that the recent reduction in surgical rates was independently associated with increased and earlier AZA use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field experiment successfully gathered data from four developing and four decaying/nondeveloping tropical disturbances over the tropical North Atlantic basin between 15 August and 30 September 2010. The invaluable roles played by early career scientists (ECSs) throughout the campaign helped make possible the successful execution of the field program's mission to investigate tropical cyclone formation. ECSs provided critical meteorological information- often obtained from novel ECS-created products-during daily weather briefings that were used by the principal investigators in making mission planning decisions. Once a Gulfstream V (G-V) flight mission was underway, ECSs provided nowcasting support, relaying information that helped the mission scientists to steer clear of potential areas of turbulence aloft. Data from these missions, including dropsonde and GPS water vapor profiler data, were continually obtained, processed, and quality-controlled by ECSs. The dropsonde data provided National Hurricane Center forecasters and PREDICT mission scientists with real-time information regarding the characteristics of tropical disturbances. These data and others will serve as the basis for multiple ECS-led research topics over the years to come and are expected to provide new insights into the tropical cyclone formation process. PREDICT also provided invaluable educational and professional development experiences for ECSs, including the opportunity to critically evaluate observational evidence for tropical cyclone development theories and networking opportunities with their peers and established scientists in the field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background and aims: Limited data are available on the incidence and predictors of colorectal (CRC) and small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) in patients with Crohn''s disease (CD) from population-based cohorts. Since data are completely missing from Eastern Europe, our aim was to analyze the incidence and risk factors of CD associated CRC and SBA in the population-based, Veszprem province database, which included incident patients diagnosed between January 1, 1977 and December 31, 2008. Methods: The data of 506 incident CD patients were analyzed (age-at-diagnosis: 31.5, SD: 13.8years). Both hospital and outpatient records were collected and comprehensively reviewed. Results: CRC was diagnosed in five patients (5/5758 person-year-duration) during follow-up, while no patients developed SBA in this cohort. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of CRC was not increased overall with five cases observed vs. 5.02 expected (SIR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.41–2.39); however, there was a tendency for increased incidence in males (five cases observed vs. 2.56 expected; SIR: 1.95, 95% CI: 0.81–4.70). Age at onset of CD (p <0.001), male gender (p =0.022) and stenosing disease behavior at diagnosis (p <0.001) but not disease location were identified as risk factors for developing CRC in univariate analysis and Kaplan–Meier analysis. The cumulative risk for developing CRC after a disease duration of 20years was 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6–1.7%). Conclusions: The incidence of CRC and SBA was not increased in this population-based CD cohort. Age at onset of CD, male gender and stenosing disease behavior at diagnosis were identified as risk factors of CRC. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Background and aims: Limited data are available on the incidence and disease course of IBD in the elderly population. Our aim was to analyze the incidence and disease course of IBD according to the age at diagnosis in the population-based Veszprem province database, which included incident patients diagnosed between January 1, 1977 and December 31, 2008. Methods: Data of 1420 incident patients were analyzed (UC: 914, age at diagnosis: 38.9 SD15.9years; CD: 506, age at diagnosis: 31.5 SD13.8years). Both hospital and outpatient records were collected and comprehensively reviewed. Results: 106 (11.6%) of UC patients and 21 (4.2%) of CD patients were diagnosed with >60years of age. In UC, the incidence increased from 1.09 to 10.8/105 in the elderly, while CD increased to 3.04/105 in 2002–2007. In CD, colonic location (elderly: 61.9% vs. pediatric: 24.3%, p =0.001, and adults: 36.8%, p =0.02) and stenosing disease (elderly: 42.9% vs. pediatric: 14.9%, p =0.005, and adults: 19.5%, p =0.01) were more frequent in the elderly. A change in disease behavior was absent in the elderly, while in pediatric and adult CD population it was 20.3% (p =0.037), 19.8% (p =0.036) after 5years. In UC, extensive disease was more frequent in pediatric patients compared to the elderly (p =0.003, OR: 2.73, 95%CI: 1.38–5.41). In addition, pediatric (57.3%, p <0.001, OR: 6.58; 95%CI: 3.22–12.9) and adult (39.8%, p <0.001, OR: 3.24; 95%CI: 1.91–5.49) patients required more often systemic steroids during follow-up compared to the elderly (17%). Proximal extension at 10years was 11.6%, but time to extension was not different according to the age at onset. Conclusions: Elderly patients represent an increasing proportion of the IBD population. Stenosing and colon-only disease were characteristic for elderly CD patients, while the disease course in UC was milder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (lockdowns) to halt the spread of the disease. At the same time, demand declined as households and firms scaled back spending. This paper attempts to disentangle the supply and demand channels in trade by quantifying the causal effect of supply spillovers from lockdowns. We utilise a novel dataset of daily bilateral seaborne trade and design a shift-share identification strategy that leverages geography-induced cargo delivery lags to track the transmission of supply disruptions across space. We find strong but short-lived supply spillovers of lockdowns through international trade. Moreover, the evidence is suggestive of the downstream propagation of countries' lockdowns through global supply chains. The short-lived nature of the disruptions despite the unprecedented scale of the shock caution against any blunt use of trade and tax policies to create costly redundancies in global supply chains., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The possibility of using two different isotopomers, for the incorporation of isotopically labeled amino acids, was explored to enable longitudinal studies of de novo synthesis of two export liver proteins, albumin and fibrinogen. The agreement of the synthesis rates between the two different labels was evaluated along with the reproducibility of repeated experiments using different time intervals. Healthy volunteers were studied in a standardized fed state. Protocol A (n = 10) involved two measurements 48 hours apart. Protocol B (n = 6) involved three measurements at baseline and five hours and then seven days after the initial measurement. De novo synthesis of albumin and fibrinogen by the incorporation of D5-phenylalanine or D8-phenylalanine were measured using the flooding dose technique. Albumin and fibrinogen were isolated from plasma using standard techniques. Fractional and absolute synthesis rates were calculated. Repeated measurements employing the two isotoptomers showed good agreement for albumin fractional synthesis rate after 48 hours (p = 0.92) and after 7 days (p = 0.99), with a coefficient of variation of 5.9% when using the same isotopic label. For fibrinogen, the coefficient of variation for the fractional synthesis rate employing the same isotopic label was 16.6%. Repeated measurements after 48 hours and seven days showed less agreement although there was no statistical difference (P = 0.32 and P = 0.30 respectively). Repeated measurement after five hours showed a statistical significant difference for the fractional synthesis rate of fibrinogen (p = 0.008) but not for albumin (p = 0.12). Repeated measurements of albumin de novo synthesis more than 48 hours apart show acceptable agreement using either one or two different isotopic labels. For fibrinogen the larger intra-individual scatter necessitates larger study groups to detect changes in longitudinal studies. Repeated measurements within 48 hours need to be validated further.