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Benefit incidence analysis has become a popular tool over the past decade, especially for researchers at the World Bank. Despite or perhaps because of the popularity of this method, recent research has pointed out many of its limitations. One of the most common criticisms of benefit incidence analysis is that its description of average participation rates is not necessarily useful in guiding marginal changes in public spending policies. This article considers a variety of methods for analyzing the marginal benefit incidence of policy changes. A key conceptual point is that despite the fact that the various methods measure marginal incidence, they do not measure the same thing nor are they intended to do so. There are many possible policy changes and thus many margins of interest. Each method captures one of these and so is of interest for some analyses and inappropriate for others. Empirically, the precision of the methods differs substantially, with those relying on differenced data or aggregations of households yielding standard errors that are quite large relative to the estimated shares.

Germany's social security system is surveyed, its benefits and contributions are discussed. The expansion of this system in the last decades is described, its impact on employment and growth is studied and proposals for the reform of the system are discussed.

We use a large panel data set (LINDA) to describe retirement behaviour in Sweden. The importance of different pathways to retirement is analysed. Survival functions for labor force participation of several groups in the labor force are estimated. We then provide a detailed analysis of economic incentives for additional work of older workers in Sweden inherent in the social security system, occupational pension schemes, labor market insurance programs, income taxes and housing allowances. The analysis shows the importance of these components of the income security system in forming the incentives.

There are four major functions of the social security system: social insurance nets, public assistance nets, social service nets, and social cooperation nets. All of these nets strive for improving human rights and dignity. Especially, both social insurance nets and public assistance nets are designed to secure Iiving standard and human rights. SociaI service nets and social cooperation nets are designed to improve living standard and human rights. Also, it is possible for this model to make us compare the welfare levels of nations currently running social security system.

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Cross country data on public and private pension schemes are presented and explained. Relevant World Bank demographic projections and other indicators previously reported in ‘averting the old age crisis is updated. Relationships between key indicators are highlighted. Many of the data are available as retrievable spreadsheets in the World Bank’s Social Protection Web-site at http://www.worldbank.org/pensions.

This paper analyzes the effect on family retirement income of various ways of funding retirement in the United States (U.S.). These ways include direct government expenditures (i.e., social security), indirect government expenditures through tax-preferenced forms of retirenment savings, and amounts that families save on their own withouth direct or indirect government expenditures. The result suggests that, in the U.S., tax-preferenced retirenment programs are important complement to the social security system. This paper, by the end, includes some suggestions for Croatian policy makers.

It is now generally accepted that the approach of enlarging state-based social security systems in developing countries in order to achieve universal coverage has failed. It is the poor and rural population in particular who are largely excluded from any kind of social insurance. This paper reviews the literature to identify the major reasons for state and market failure, describes the existing systems and their institutional strengths and weaknesses and analyses the possibilities for a public-private partnership. To this end, the paper identifies four main providers of social security, namely the state, the market, member-based organisations, and the private households.Whereas the reasons for state failure – inadequate and inefficient programmes to deal with the socio-economic realities – and market failure - information problems and high transaction costs- have been analysed in great detail, there is controversy over how adequately member and private household-based systems can protect members against basic risks such as illness, disability, accidents and death. Several empirical studies in rural areas have shown the limits of traditional insurance arrangements, which basically provide insufficient coverage against co-variate risks while entailing high costs in terms of pursuing less risky activities. Moreover, these systems are under heavy pressure from change in the socio-economic environment, such as market penetration and population growth. Given this situation, the paper explores the possibilities of a public-private partnership that are created by exploiting local information, on the one hand, while enhancing the possibilities of risk pooling, reinsurance and better access to risk capital, on the other. However, a successful partnership depends on several factors. The ones identified and discussed here are the willingness of the state to withdraw from certain activities and the political and economic environment required for wider private engagement in general. The paper concludes by introducing a preliminary agenda for policy action and research. Then literature survey has shown that a lot of questions about the appropriate institutional design of social security systems in rural areas remain unanswered. More research is needed to identify the population’s actual needs and its demand for insurance in a specific socio-economic context and agro-ecological zone, to analyse the economic and social impact of innovative insurance schemes recently evolving in many countries, to identify conditions for a successful private-public partnership for social security provision and finally, to find appropriate ways of translating the findings into adequate policy measures.

ÖZET SOSYAL GÜVENLİK SİSTEMLERİNİN MAKROEKONOMİK PERFORMANSA ETKİLERİ: BİR ZAMAN KESİTİ ANALİZİ Erdem, F. Senem Yüksek Lisans, İktisat Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Y.Doç.Dr.Bilin Neyaptı Ağustos 1999 Demografik faktörlerdeki değişim, birçok sosyal güvenlik sistemi göstergesinin yarattığı etkileri değiştirmiş ve pekçok ülkeyi sistemlerinde reform yapmaya yönlendirmiştir. Bu reformlardan en fazla dikkati çekeni, Pay-as-you-go (PAYG)'dan fonlamaya dayalı sistemlere geçiş olmuştur. Bu tez, sosyal güvenlik sistemlerinin makroekonomik performansa olan etkilerinin bir zaman kesiti analizi ile incelenmesidir. Beş temel makroekonomik gösterge analiz edilmiştir: Gayrısafi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYİH) büyüme hızı, bütçe açığı, özel sektör tasarruf oranı, işsizlik oranı ve enflasyon. Bu çalışmanın amacı, belirtilen makroekonomik göstergelerin, ilintili diğer makroekonomik değişkenler ve anlamlı sosyal güvenlik değişkenleriyle -bağımlılık oranı, sosyal güvenlik bütçe açığı, emeklilik yaşı, prim oranları, sosyal güvenlik kamu harcamaları- tahmin edilmeye çalışılmasıdır. Çalışmanın temel sonucu, sosyal güvenlik değişkenlerinin makroekonomik performansı belirli bir şekilde etkilediği yolundadır. Anahtar sözcükler: Sosyal güvenlik sistemi, gayrısafi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYİH) büyüme hızı, bütçe açığı, özel sektör tasarruf oranı, işsizlik oranı, enflasyon, makroekonomik performans 111 ABSTRACT THE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEMS ON MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: A CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS Erdem, F. Senem M. A. In Department of Economics Supervisor: Assist. Prof. Bilin Neyaptı August 1999 Developments in demographic factors affect the magnitude of several Social Security attributes, and have recently lead many countries to reform their systems. The most marked one of such reforms is the transition from Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) based systems to funded systems. This thesis discusses the effects of social security systems on a country's macroeconomic performance by means of a cross-sectional study. It examines five main macroeconomic indicators: GDP growth rate, budget deficit, private saving rate, unemployment and inflation. It does so by using both their main macroeconomic determinants and the relevant social security attributes, such as dependency ratio, social security deficit, retirement ages, contribution rates, and public spending on social security. Our main conclusion is that many social security attributes significantly affect macroeconomic indicators. Keywords: Social Security System, GDP growth rate, private saving rate, budget deficit, unemployment, inflation, macroeconomic performance 102

2019年度

Employment has transitioned from stable to more flexible schemes. Little is known about the effects of dynamic working lives and mortality. We examined the association of employment, unemployment and inactivity on mortality among workers born in 1926-1988, in a nested case-control study of workers from the Spanish WORKss cohort. Cases were all deaths that occurred during 2004-2013 and controls were living persons, matched for sex and age at the time the case occurred. We had information on employment from 1981 to 2013. Logistic regression was used to measure the associations between the 3 employment history indicators separately by sex. There were 53,989 cases and an equal number of controls (n = 107,978). More than 16 years employed showed a protective effect against mortality in women (OR = 0.88, 95%CI: 0.81, 0.94) and men (OR = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.70, 0.79). The number of spells and time in unemployment and inactivity were significantly related to mortality in men, but not women. Sensitivity analyses by labor relationship showed stronger associations of unemployment (OR = 1.42, 95%CI: 1.13, 1.78) and inactivity (OR = 1.34; 95%CI: 1.09, 1.65) for temporary workers. Employment gaps are detrimental to health and have worse effects if the gaps occur without unemployment benefits or after temporary contracts. These results may drive improvement of labor and social policies that protect workers against the potential negative effects of dynamic work lives.

In the first place, the paper analyses the cultural-historical background of the social security in Poland. Given the largely enrooted Catholicism of the country, the development of the social teaching of the Catholic Church is surveyed. It is followed by a short history of the social security legislation in Poland from 1918 to 1997, and finally the current economical conditions of the system are analysed. The paper concludes with the opinion, that the current system, providing large social endowments to various strata of the population, generally answers the expectations of the people as well as corresponds to Catholic social teaching.

The aim of the study is to estimate the pension costs incurred for patients with musculoskeletal disorders (MDs) and specifi cally with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and ankylosing spondylitis (AS) in Italy between 2009 and 2012. We analyzed the database of the Italian National Social Security Institute (Istituto Nazionale Previdenza Sociale i.e. INPS) to estimate the total costs of three types of social security benefi ts granted to patients with MDs, RA and AS: disability benefi ts (for people with reduced working ability), disability pensions (for people who cannot qualify as workers) and incapacity pensions (for people without working ability). We developed a probabilistic model with a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total costs for each type of benefi t associated with MDs, RA and AS. We also estimated the productivity loss resulting from RA in 2013. From 2009 to 2012 about 393 thousand treatments were paid for a total of approximately €2.7 billion. The annual number of treatments was on average 98 thousand and cost in total €674 million per year. In particular, the total pension burden was about €99 million for RA and €26 million for AS. The productivity loss for AR in 2013 was equal to €707,425,191 due to 9,174,221 working days lost. Our study is the fi rst to estimate the burden of social security pensions for MDs based on data of both approved claims and benefi ts paid by the national security system. From 2009 to 2012, in Italy, the highest indirect costs were associated with disability pensions (54% of the total indirect cost), followed by disability benefi ts (44.1% of cost) and incapacity pensions (1.8% of cost). In conclusion, MDs are chronic and highly debilitating diseases with a strong female predominance and very signifi cant economic and social costs that are set to increase due to the aging of the population.

Background To examine the differences in the incidence of registered sickness absence by type of employment contract in a large representative sample of salaried workers in Spain in 2009. Method A study of 653,264 salaried workers covered by the Social Security system who had 133,724 sickness absence episodes in 2009. Crude and adjusted rate ratios and their corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with Poisson regression models. Results The incidence rate per 100 workers-year of sickness absence for temporary workers (IR = 32.2) was slightly higher than that of permanent workers (IR = 28.9). This pattern was observed in both men (RR = 1.12; 95 % CI 1.10–1.14) and women (RR 1.11; 95 % CI 1.09–1.12). However, after adjusting for age, company size, and occupational category, the differences disappeared in men (aRR = 1.01; 95 % CI 0.99–1.02) and decreased in women (aRR = 1.06; 95 % CI 1.04–1.07). Conclusion Our findings provide evidence on the independence of sickness absence benefits from the type of employment contract as well as on the nonexistence of incentives for taking sickness absence in workers with a permanent employment contract. In the context of increasing market flexibility, these results show a positive functioning of the Social Security system. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13690-016-0152-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Los resultados de este estudio muestran que la oportunidad y la calidad de los servicios de atención en salud, fueron bien evaluadas por parte de la población colombiana. Asimismo, la investigación logró identificar algunos factores que determinan las variaciones en las evaluaciones de la oportunidad y de la calidad, lo mismo que en las razones para no utilizar los servicios de atención médica, advirtiéndose que esos factores en conjunto no tienen una alta capacidad explicativa. Con relación a las razones de no uso de los servicios, se encontró que la población que no utilizó los servicios de atención médica, mencionó en 64.7 % de los casos ciertas “razones” para no hacerlo, que de alguna manera se asocian con problemas en la calidad. Entre las más importantes, tenemos las que se pueden calificar como de accesibilidad, entre ellas larga distancia hasta el oferente (accesibilidad “geográfica”), falta de dinero (accesibilidad “económica”) y falta de credibilidad en los agentes de salud (accesibilidad “cultural”). Finalmente, es importante anotar que existen evidencias directas (p.e., las demoras o la evaluación de “mala calidad” de los servicios) y evidencias indirectas (la no utilización de los servicios de salud a través de la seguridad social o simplemente la no utilización de los mismos) que sugieren que los problemas relacionados con la calidad de los servicios de salud pueden ser mayores de lo que aparentemente se pudo evidenciar. Las evidencias indirectas, en particular, podrían estar sugiriendo que el sistema de seguridad social está causando dificultades que se reflejan en la actitud del usuario o que simplemente no ha podido resolverlas. This paper resumes the main findings of a research project based on the National Quality of Life performed by DANE (National Administrative Department of Statistics) in 1997. We analized the main characteristics of the health services in Colombia, in terms of oportunity, satisfaction and reasons for not using the health services by Colombian people. The results showed mainly that the oportunity and the quality (measured in terms of satisfaction) of health services were satisfactorily evaluated by those Colombian people who used them. In the same way, the study identified some key factors which determined the variations in the evaluation this oportunity and quality, as well as the reasons for not using the health care services, warning that those factors jointly don’t have a highly explanatory capacity. The reasons for not using the health care services, mentioned by the people who not use health services were certains reasons which in some way are asociated with problems referred to quality. Among the most important were those referred with problems regarding to accesibility. Finally, it is important to point out that exists both direct and indirect evidences that suggest that these problems related to health services quality can be much more important than they apparently appear.The indirect evidences, for example, suggest that the Colombian Social Security System is causing difficulties reflected in the user´s attitute.