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This paper compares three methods to increase validity of case-control studies when two imperfect measurement tools are available to assess exposure. From simulated data, we show that point estimates of the relative risk, using only concordant dual responses, are always less biased than any other estimate. Because of the loss of power due to discarding discordant responses, the concordant response design is not efficient and is expensive. We show that a series response estimation, whereby all information is used but only dual positive responses are considered exposed, can be used to complement the interpretation of the less biased estimates. This approach is more interesting when exposure is rare and measuring it expensive.

A paradoxical effect of radiotherapy and chemotherapy for cancer is that some of these treatments can themselves cause new cancers. Most epidemiologic methods can be applied successfully to the investigation of this problem and this paper reviews various approaches that have already been used by various researchers. The authors first review the more traditional methods, i.e., cohort and case-control studies and they then describe designs that have been proposed more recently, such as case-cohort studies. A distinction is established between internal comparisons, carried out within the study population, and external comparisons, in which a general population external to the population under study is used as the reference category. This presentation is mainly aimed at investigators using tumor registry data. However, the general principles formulated here are easily generalized to contexts other than that of registries.

The effectiveness of a program designed to eliminate exposure to a risk factor may be enhanced by selecting specific subpopulations for the intervention effort. A second factor is called an intervention effect modifier of the first factor if the effect of the intervention. If an intervention effect modifier exists, a program's effectiveness may be enhanced by choosing a subpopulation for intervention on the basis of the distribution of that factor. We discuss the conditions in which intervention effect modification can occur when there is a third factor which influences risk. Additivity of incidence rates, the criterion when only two factors are involved, is neither necessary nor sufficient to rule out intervention effect modification in this situation. We also discuss the cost effectiveness of intervention strategies when the cost per successful intervention varies.

To study the effect of maternal age on primary cesarean section rates, 3458 consecutive deliveries were analyzed. The cesarean section rates in primiparous women less than 25, 25 to 34, and over 34 years of age were 13.1%, 18.5%, and 28.2%, respectively. A similarly dramatic rise with advancing maternal age was seen in multiparous women with rates of 3.4%, 4.7%, and 10.1%, respectively, in the three age groups. The strong association between cesarean section and maternal age persisted after multivariate adjustment for induction of labor, epidural anesthesia, meconium-stained amniotic fluid, and fetal distress, and thus these factors do not explain the relationship.

In occupational cancer epidemiology, many studies are carried out without access to information on smoking and other potential confounding variables. It is unclear whether such deficiencies are likely to cause serious bias in estimates of cancer-occupation associations. An empiric investigation was carried out to determine the effect of inclusion or exclusion of three variables--smoking, ethnic group, and socioeconomic status--on estimates of odds ratios (OR) between 25 occupations and three types of cancer--lung, bladder, and stomach. Of the 75 associations studied, only one OR was distorted by more than 40% when comparing unadjusted with adjusted estimates; three were distorted by between 30% and 40%; four others by between 20% and 30%. Of the eight associations which were distorted by more than 20%, seven involved lung cancer and one involved bladder cancer; none involved stomach cancer. An additional analysis was carried out on the 25 lung cancer-occupation associations to determine whether the nature of the stratification on smoking (ie, whether crude or "precise" categories were used) gave different OR estimates. The differences in ORs induced by different parametrizations of the smoking variable were relatively small. Our results support the view that relative risks between lung cancer and occupation in excess of 1.4 are unlikely to be artifacts due to uncontrolled confounding. For bladder and stomach cancer, the corresponding cut point may be as low as 1.2. In studies of occupation and cancer, uncontrolled confounding due to smoking and social class may not be as serious a threat to the integrity of results as is sometimes feared.

A case-control study involving interviews with 1,244 patients (758 males and 486 females) with cancer of the esophagus or gastric cardia and 1,314 population-based controls (789 males, 525 females) was carried out in Linxian, a rural county in North Central China with one of the world's highest mortality rates for these tumors. Cancer risks tended to rise with increasing intake of wheat and corn, but no association was found with adult intake of pickled vegetables, the leading a priori suspect, and risks were not elevated among those consuming low quantities of fresh vegetables or fruits. Few differences in preparation or storage of food or water were detected, although cancer patients reported less fluid intake than controls. Few persons reported drinking alcoholic beverages. Smoking was reported by 61% of the male cases and was a mild risk factor, related more to cancer of the cardia than of the esophagus. The risk was increased by 70% among those whose parents had esophageal or stomach cancer, but only slightly among those whose spouses had such cancers, suggesting that exposure early in life and/or genetic effects may be involved.

The fecapentaenes (FP) are the predominant fecal mutagens identified to date, but they have not been shown to be carcinogenic. Epidemiologists looking for other fecal mutagens that may be related to colorectal cancer must disentangle from their investigations the pervasive mutagenic effect of the fecapentaenes. As a first step to studying the epidemiology of fecal mutagenicity independent of fecapentaenes, we compared FP measurements and Salmonella mutagenicity assay results for 718 acetone-extracted stool samples collected from a variety of subjects in the Washington DC metropolitan areas. In this large group, 50% of mutagenic samples contained elevated fecapentaenes. Specifically, three-quarters of the samples mutagenic in TA100 contained high FP levels. In contrast, mutagenicity in TA98 was not generally explainable by fecapentaenes, suggesting that non-fecapentaene TA98 mutagenicity should be one focus of future efforts to uncover colorectal carcinogens of etiologic importance.

Sixteen children with familial hypertriglyceridemia were studied to determine whether there were any distinctive insulintriglycerid-obesity relationships in pediatric familial hypertriglyceridemia. Eleven of 16 children had calculated fat mass greater than the 97th percentile for age, height, and sex. When compared with 16 normal control subjects matched for degree of obesity immunoreactive insulin and glucose response during oral glucose tolerance was similar for normal and hypertriglyceridemic children. By either simple correlation or multiple regression analysis, plasma, triglycerides did not correlate significantly with measurements of insulin or obesity in hypertriglyceridemic or normal children. Within the limits of a small sample size, and in the presence of obesity, insulin does not appear to play a predominant role in the genesis of hypertriglyceridemia in children with familial hypertriglyceridemia. With a small mean weight loss of 1.8 kg and adherence to a diet with 20% of calories as protein, 40% each as fat and carbohydrate, polyunsaturate to saturate ratio of 1.5:1, mean plasma triglycerides were reduced from 238 to 140 mg/100 ml in the 11 obese children with familial hypertriglyceridemia (P less than 0.02). Speculation In spite of the complicating role of obesity, adolescence, and the small sample size, it is interesting to note that the correlation coefficients between triglyceride and insulin/glucose area (0.36), and insulin area (0.30), although not significant (P less than 0.1), were considerably higher in hypertriglyceridemic children than in normal subjects in whom comparable correlation coefficients were 0.08 and 0.08. This infers that the potential role of insulin in triglyceride metabolism in children with familial hypertriglyceridemia might be discerned with longitudinal follow-up into adulthood.

To better define lipid transport in patients with hyperapobetalipoproteinemia (HyperapoB), the response to an oral fat load was studied in six normotriglyceridemic patients with the disorder. Plasma triglycerides; Sf greater than 400, and Sf 20 to 400 triglycerides; Sf greater than 20 B100; total HDL and HDL subfractions (HDL2 and HDL3) were measured serially for a 7-hour period after an oral fat load and changes in these parameters were compared to those observed in six normolipidemic controls. In addition, plasma triglyceride levels and HDL2 and HDL3 cholesterol were also determined in seven patients with Type IV hyperlipoproteinemia: three with normal LDL apo B levels and four with HyperapoB. When the two normotriglyceridemic groups were compared, the patients with HyperapoB had significantly higher fasting levels of SF greater than 400 lipoproteins and higher fasting VLDL and LDL levels than the normal patients. After the fat load, Sf 20 to 400 triglycerides and Sf greater than 20 B100 levels increased in both groups. Plasma triglycerides rose to a higher level in the HyperapoB patients than in the normal group, but more strikingly, remained elevated in the HyperapoB patients, an elevation due principally to a persistant increase in Sf greater than 400 triglycerides. On the other hand, HDL2 cholesterol dropped substantially in the HyperapoB patients but not in the normal patients. Finally, in the hypertriglyceridemic group, after the fat load, HDL2 cholesterol levels did not change in the patients with normal LDL apo B levels but did decrease in those with elevated plasma LDL apo B.

Family history is an important predictor of coronary risk. However, this relation, in large part, is not explained by the known risk factors such as systemic hypertension or hyperlipidemia. In the present study, plasma lipid, lipoprotein lipid, and plasma low-density lipoprotein (LDL) apoB levels were measured in 66 offspring (myocardial infarction [MI] offspring) of 24 families in which an index parent had premature coronary artery disease and hyperapobetalipoproteinemia. These results were compared to those obtained in 207 control children and young adults. Univariate analysis revealed that plasma LDL apoB and all other lipid and lipoprotein levels except high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were significantly higher in the MI offspring. Multivariate analysis showed plasma LDL apoB and LDL cholesterol best differentiated the MI offspring from control children and young adults. Of the 66 children, 22 had hyperapobetalipoproteinemia, of whom only 7 had clearly abnormal LDL cholesterol or plasma triglyceride levels. Thus, a substantial portion of children born to a parent with premature coronary artery disease and hyperapobetalipoproteinemia have the same disorder of lipoprotein metabolism.

For the same number of observations in a small-sample clinical trial with dichotomous outcome, the statistical power associated with a two-sample design, analyzed by Fisher's exact test, is slightly greater than that associated with a matched design, analyzed by McNemar's test, and hence of the matched design, is monotone increasing in the within-pair correlation between the treatment responses. Power curves are presented which demonstrate that positive within-pair correlation, even when quite small, can result in a superiority in power for the matched design. Conversely, in the rare situations where there is a negative within-pair correlation, choice of a two-sample design can result in a substantial gain in power.

We examined 82 patients 10 years after saphenous-vein aortocoronary bypass surgery to determine their angiographic status and to relate those findings to the risk factors for coronary-artery disease. Of 132 grafts shown to be patent 1 year after surgery, only 50 were unaffected at 10 years. The remainder were narrowed (43) or occluded (39). Disease progression in coronary arteries without grafts was also frequent, both in vessels that were normal (15 of 32) and in those with minor stenosis (25 of 53). New lesions did not develop in 15 patients, whereas they did in 67--in the grafts, the native vessels, or both. There was no significant difference between the two groups in the incidence of hypertension, diabetes, or smoking, whereas plasma levels of very-low-density lipoproteins (VLDLs) and low-density lipoproteins (LDLs) were higher, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels were lower in those with new disease than in those without. Univariate analysis showed that plasma cholesterol and triglyceride levels were significantly higher at the time of surgery and at the 10-year examination in those with new lesions. Multivariate analysis indicated that among the lipoprotein indexes, levels of HDL cholesterol and plasma LDL apoprotein B best distinguished the two groups. The findings indicate that atherosclerosis in these patients was a progressive disease, frequently affecting both the grafts and the native vessels, and that the course of such disease may be related to the plasma lipoprotein levels.