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Low fruit and vegetable (FV) intake is a leading risk factor for chronic disease globally, but much of the world's population does not consume the recommended servings of FV daily. It remains unknown whether global supply of FV is sufficient to meet current and growing population needs. We sought to determine whether supply of FV is sufficient to meet current and growing population needs, globally and in individual countries.We used global data on agricultural production and population size to compare supply of FV in 2009 with population need, globally and in individual countries. We found that the global supply of FV falls, on average, 22% short of population need according to nutrition recommendations (supply:need ratio: 0.78 [Range: 0.05-2.01]). This ratio varies widely by country income level, with a median supply:need ratio of 0.42 and 1.02 in low-income and high-income countries, respectively. A sensitivity analysis accounting for need-side food wastage showed similar insufficiency, to a slightly greater extent (global supply:need ratio: 0.66, varying from 0.37 [low-income countries] to 0.77 [high-income countries]). Using agricultural production and population projections, we also estimated supply and need for FV for 2025 and 2050. Assuming medium fertility and projected growth in agricultural production, the global supply:need ratio for FV increases slightly to 0.81 by 2025 and to 0.88 by 2050, with similar patterns seen across country income levels. In a sensitivity analysis assuming no change from current levels of FV production, the global supply:need ratio for FV decreases to 0.66 by 2025 and to 0.57 by 2050.The global nutrition and agricultural communities need to find innovative ways to increase FV production and consumption to meet population health needs, particularly in low-income countries.

OBJECTIVE:We investigated the role of state-level differences in modifiable cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in contributing to state disparities in cardiovascular mortality rates in the US. METHODS:Adults aged 45-74 in 2010 were examined. We constructed a CV risk index summarizing state-level exposure to current smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, alcohol abstinence, hypertension, elevated cholesterol, and diabetes using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Outcomes were cardiovascular, coronary heart disease, and stroke mortality. Linear regression was used to estimate associations between the CV risk index and mortality outcomes. Models accounted for state-level socioeconomic characteristics and other potential confounders. RESULTS:Risk factors were highly correlated at the state-level (Cronbach's alpha 0.85 (men) and 0.92 (women). Each +1SD difference in the cardiovascular risk index was associated with higher adjusted cardiovascular mortality rates by 41.0 (95%CI = 26.3, 55.7) and 33.3 (95%CI = 24.4, 42.2) deaths per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. The index accounted for 8% (men) and 11% (women) of the variation in state-level cardiovascular mortality. Comparable associations were also observed for coronary heart disease and stroke mortality. CONCLUSIONS:CV risk factors were highly correlated at the state-level and were independently associated with state CV mortality, suggesting the utility of generalized CV risk reduction.

BACKGROUND:The effects of systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum total cholesterol (TC), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been established in epidemiological studies, but consistent estimates of effect sizes by age and sex are not available. METHODS:We reviewed large cohort pooling projects, evaluating effects of baseline or usual exposure to metabolic risks on ischemic heart disease (IHD), hypertensive heart disease (HHD), stroke, diabetes, and, as relevant selected other CVDs, after adjusting for important confounders. We pooled all data to estimate relative risks (RRs) for each risk factor and examined effect modification by age or other factors, using random effects models. RESULTS:Across all risk factors, an average of 123 cohorts provided data on 1.4 million individuals and 52,000 CVD events. Each metabolic risk factor was robustly related to CVD. At the baseline age of 55-64 years, the RR for 10 mmHg higher SBP was largest for HHD (2.16; 95% CI 2.09-2.24), followed by effects on both stroke subtypes (1.66; 1.39-1.98 for hemorrhagic stroke and 1.63; 1.57-1.69 for ischemic stroke). In the same age group, RRs for 1 mmol/L higher TC were 1.44 (1.29-1.61) for IHD and 1.20 (1.15-1.25) for ischemic stroke. The RRs for 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI for ages 55-64 ranged from 2.32 (2.04-2.63) for diabetes, to 1.44 (1.40-1.48) for IHD. For 1 mmol/L higher FPG, RRs in this age group were 1.18 (1.08-1.29) for IHD and 1.14 (1.01-1.29) for total stroke. For all risk factors, proportional effects declined with age, were generally consistent by sex, and differed by region in only a few age groups for certain risk factor-disease pairs. CONCLUSION:Our results provide robust, comparable and precise estimates of the effects of major metabolic risk factors on CVD and diabetes by age group.

Progress in the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes-the dominant form of diabetes-appears to have stalled in the US over the past decade, and diabetes-related morbidity has increased nationally. The most geographically and socioeconomically disadvantaged segments of the population have been especially hard hit, and interventions that reduce the risk for diabetes have not reached these populations. In this overview article we lay out how fragmentation in health policy and governance, payers and reimbursement design, and service delivery in the US has contributed to low accountability and coordination, and thus stagnation and persistent inequities. We also review the evidence regarding past, ongoing, and new reforms that may help address fragmentation, lower diabetes burdens, and narrow disparities.

Disability levels in the United States declined during the 1980s and 1990s, but these declines stalled more recently. Using data for 2013 from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, we estimated the percentages of national and state disability that could be prevented through reductions in five modifiable health risk factors associated with disability: cigarette smoking, obesity, diabetes, high cholesterol, and hypertension. Taking into account risk-factor prevalence and the association between each risk factor and disability, we evaluated the fraction of disability preventable if risk factors were reduced under two scenarios: complete elimination of risk factors and reduction in all states to the lowest levels observed in states. If all five risk factors were eliminated, 53 percent of disability could be prevented nationally. The largest contributors were smoking (17 percent), obesity (16 percent), and hypertension (12 percent). If all states reduced risk-factor levels to the lowest observed levels, up to 7 percent of disability could be prevented nationally. Many states in the South and Midwest could experience disability reductions of more than 10 percent by attaining the same risk-factor levels as in states that had the lowest levels. Improved risk-factor prevention could result in the resumption of longer-term declines in US disability., (Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.)

Noncommunicable diseases are the leading health concerns of the modern era, accounting for two-thirds of global deaths, half of all disability, and rapidly growing costs. To provide a contemporary overview of the burdens caused by noncommunicable diseases, we compiled mortality data reported by authorities in forty-nine countries for atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases; diabetes; chronic respiratory diseases; and lung, colon, breast, cervical, liver, and stomach cancers. From 1980 to 2012, on average across all countries, mortality for cardiovascular disease, stomach cancer, and cervical cancer declined, while mortality for diabetes, liver cancer, and female chronic respiratory disease and lung cancer increased. In contrast to the relatively steep cardiovascular and cancer mortality declines observed in high-income countries, mortality for cardiovascular disease and chronic respiratory disease was flat in most low- and middle-income countries, which also experienced increasing breast and colon cancer mortality. These divergent mortality patterns likely reflect differences in timing and magnitude of risk exposures, health care, and policies to counteract the diseases. Improving both the coverage and the accuracy of mortality documentation in populous low- and middle-income countries is a priority, as is the need to rigorously evaluate societal-level interventions. Furthermore, given the complex, chronic, and progressive nature of noncommunicable diseases, policies and programs to prevent and control them need to be multifaceted and long-term, as returns on investment accrue with time., (Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.)