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The polymerase inhibitor favipiravir is a candidate for the treatment of Ebola virus disease. Here, we designed a mathematical model to characterize the viral dynamics in 20 mice experimentally infected with Ebola virus, which were either left untreated or treated with favipiravir at 6 or 8days post infection. This approach provided estimates of kinetic parameters of Ebola virus reproduction, such as the half-life of productively infected cells, of about 6h, and the basic reproductive number which indicates that virus produced by a single infected cell productively infects about 9 new cells. Furthermore, the model predicted that favipiravir efficiently blocks viral production, reaching an antiviral effectiveness of 95% and 99.6% at 2 and 6days after initiation of treatment, respectively. The model could be particularly helpful to guide future studies evaluating favipiravir in larger animals., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Through accumulation of genetic mutations in the neuraminidase gene, the influenza virus can become resistant to antiviral drugs such as oseltamivir. Quantifying the fitness of emergent drug-resistant influenza viruses, relative to contemporary circulating viruses, provides valuable information to complement existing efforts in the surveillance of drug-resistance. We have previously developed a co-infection based method for the assessment of the relative in vivo fitness of two competing viruses. We have also introduced a model of within-host co-infection dynamics that enables relative within-host fitness to be quantified in these competitive-mixtures experiments. The model assumed that fitness differences between co-infecting strains were mediated by strain-dependent viral production rates from infected epithelial cells. Here we extend the model to enable a more complete exploration of biological processes that may differ between virus pairs and hence generate fitness differences. We use the extended model to re-analyse data from competitive-mixtures experiments that investigated the fitness of oseltamivir-resistant (OR) H1N1 pandemic 2009 ("H1N1pdm09") viruses that emerged during a community outbreak in Australia in 2011. Results are consistent with those of our previous analysis, suggesting that the within-host replication fitness of these OR viruses is not compromised relative to that of related oseltamivir-susceptible (OS) strains, and that potentially permissive mutations in the neuraminidase gene (V241I and N369K) significantly enhance the fitness of H1N1pdm09 OR viruses. These results are consistent regardless of the hypothesised biological cause of fitness difference., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background and Objective: We analyzed baseline and kinetic characteristics of lipid metabolism during the first month of bitherapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 1 (CHC-1)., Patients and Methods: A longitudinal, prospective study including 99 naïve CHC-1 patients with liver biopsy who were treated with bitherapy. Our patients were assigned to one of 5 different "degrees of lipid requirement" that we established depending on the degree of liver fibrosis, baseline viral load and infectivity ratio (ratio between the median level of triglycerides and high densitity lipoproteins-cholesterol during the first month). The goal was to achieve "a favorable lipid metabolism" (FLM) by establishing a necessary minimum level of low density lipoproteins (LDL)-cholesterol during this period for each one of them. We also analyzed the relationship with the rate of sustained virological response., Results: Patients with liver fibrosis F3-F4 who had higher baseline levels of LDL-cholesterol achieved higher rates of sustained virological response. Those patients who had a lower value of infectivity ratio and median levels of LDL-cholesterol during the first month of bitherapy also achieved higher rates of sustained virological response: SVR group 100 (23) mg/dl against non-SVR group: 89 (28) mg/dl; odds ratio 1.1; 95% confidence interval (1.0-1.2); P<.05, these differences being more significant for genotype IL-28B-CC (P=.013). Patients with sustained virological response had higher rates of FLM., Conclusions: Not every patient with CHC-1 has the same lipid kinetics during the first month of bitherapy, and it is necessary to achieve a sustained virological response and/or a FLM to keep higher plasma levels of LDL-cholesterol during this period. Those subjects without FLM could benefit from statins., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Intravenous silibinin (SIL) is a potent antiviral agent against hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype-1. In this proof of concept case-study we tested: (i) whether interferon-alfa (IFN)-free treatment with SIL plus ribavirin (RBV) can achieve sustained virological response (SVR); (ii) whether SIL is safe and feasible for prolonged duration of treatment and (iii) whether mathematical modelling of early on-treatment HCV kinetics can guide duration of therapy to achieve SVR., Methods: A 44 year-old female HCV-(genotype-1)-infected patient who developed severe psychiatric adverse events to a previous course of pegIFN+RBV, initiated combination treatment with 1200 mg/day of SIL, 1200 mg/day of RBV and 6000 u/day vitamin D. Blood samples were collected frequently till week 4, thereafter every 1-12 weeks until the end of therapy. The standard biphasic mathematical model with time-varying SIL effectiveness was used to predict the duration of therapy to achieve SVR., Results: Based on modelling the observed viral kinetics during the first 3 weeks of treatment, SVR was predicted to be achieved within 34 weeks of therapy. Provided with this information, the patient agreed to complete 34 weeks of treatment. IFN-free treatment with SIL+RBV was feasible, safe and achieved SVR (week-33)., Conclusions: We report, for the first time, the use of real-time mathematical modelling of HCV kinetics to individualize duration of IFN-free therapy and to empower a patient to participate in shared decision making regarding length of treatment. SIL-based individualized therapy provides a treatment option for patients who do not respond to or cannot receive other HCV agents and should be further validated., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Triple therapy with telaprevir/boceprevir + pegylated-interferon+ribavirin can achieve excellent antiviral efficacy, but it can be burdened with resistance development at failure., Aims: To evaluate kinetics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA decay and early resistance development, in order to promptly identify patients at highest risk of failure to first generation protease inhibitors., Methods: HCV-RNA was prospectively quantified in 158 patients receiving pegylated-interferon+ribavirin+telaprevir (N = 114) or+boceprevir (N = 44), at early time-points and during per protocol follow-up. Drug resistance was contextually evaluated by population sequencing., Results: HCV-RNA at week-2 was significantly higher in patients experiencing virological failure to triple-therapy than in patients with sustained viral response (2.3 [1.9-2.8] versus 1.2 [0.3-1.7]log IU/mL, p < 0.001). A 100 IU/mL cut-off value for week-2 HCV-RNA had the highest sensitivity (86%) in predicting virological success. Indeed, 23/23 (100%) patients with undetectable HCV-RNA reached success, versus 26/34 (76.5%) patients with HCV-RNA<100 IU/mL, and only 11/31 (35.5%) with HCV-RNA > 100 IU/mL (p < 0.001). Furthermore, differently from failing patients, none of the patient with undetectable HCV-RNA at week-2 had baseline/early resistance., Conclusions: With triple therapy based on first generation protease inhibitors, suboptimal HCV-RNA decay at week-2 combined with early detection of resistance can help identifying patients with higher risk of virological failure, thus requiring a closer monitoring during therapy., (Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: This study was aimed to correlate in vivo interferon (IFN) inducible gene (IFIG) expression and IFIG induction with viral-load (VL) and VL-kinetics of Human-Immunodeficiency-Virus (HIV) or Hepatitis-C-Virus (HCV) in HIV-positive patients treated with pegylated IFN-alpha-2a (PegIFNα)., Methods: HIV mono-infected patients (N=8) and HIV/HCV co-infected patients (N=23, without HIV-viremia) were treated with PegIFNα (180 μg/week) for 12 and 48 weeks, respectively. Blood sampling for monitoring IFIG expression occurred at day&#95;0 and week&#95;3, &#95;6 and &#95;12 for HIV mono-infected patients vs. only at day&#95;0 and week&#95;48 for HIV/HCV co-infected subjects. IFIG expression (N=20) was measured in peripheral blood mononuclear cells by bDNA-assay. VL levels/changes in plasma were analyzed for correlation with IFIG expression/induction at/between selected time points. Overall, P<0.05 was considered significant., Results: None of the 20 IFIG expression profiles at day&#95;0 correlated significantly with HIV-VL at day&#95;0. Expression at day&#95;0 of 3 IFIG (APOBEC3G/OAS1/OAS2) correlated significantly (r>+0.42/P<0.05) with HCV-VL at day&#95;0. The strongest antiviral effect [measured as median viral decline per week: ΔVL/week (log10)] occurred in common against HIV and HCV between day&#95;0 and week&#95;3 during 12 weeks of continuous PegIFNα treatment in both cohorts. Expression at day&#95;0 of 1 IFIG (APOBEC3A) correlated significantly (r<-0.71/P<0.05) with HIV-ΔVL/week (log10) from day&#95;0 to week&#95;3. No significance was reached in correlations between expression values of 20 IFIG at day&#95;0 and HCV-ΔVL/week (log10) from day&#95;0 to week&#95;3. No significant correlation was detected between IFIG expression changes (ΔIFIG=induction) from day&#95;0 to week&#95;3 and HIV-ΔVL/week (log10) from day&#95;0 to week&#95;3. Interestingly, induction of 1 IFIG (ΔISG20) from day&#95;0 to week&#95;48 was significantly associated (P<0.05) with permanent HCV clearance., Conclusion: This study demonstrates the differential specificity of PegIFNα mediated molecular actions by dissecting the kinetics of IFIG expression and induction, suggesting multiple, possibly non-overlapping mechanisms for antiviral effects against HCV and HIV.

Background & Aims: The therapeutic mechanisms of ribavirin for hepatitis C are unclear. Microarray analyses have shown that ribavirin increases induction of interferon-stimulated genes. We evaluated viral kinetics, serum cytokine expression, and viral mutagenesis during early stages of peginterferon therapy with and without ribavirin. Methods: Fifty patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection genotype 1 were randomly assigned to groups that were given peginterferon α-2a, with or without ribavirin, for 4 weeks; all patients then received an additional 44 weeks of combination therapy. First- and second-phase viral kinetics were evaluated. Serum levels of interferon-γ−inducible protein-10 (IP10), monokine induced by interferon-γ, and monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 were quantified as measures of the interferon-stimulated genes response. NS5A and NS5B were partially sequenced, and mutation rates were calculated. Results: The first-phase decrease in HCV RNA was similar between groups. Patients who received ribavirin had a more rapid second-phase decrease, compared with patients who did not receive ribavirin—particularly those with an adequate first-phase decrease (0.61 vs 0.35 log10 IU/mL/week; P = .018). At 12 hours, fold induction of serum IP10 was higher in patients given the combination therapy than those given peginterferon only (7.6- vs 3.8-fold; P = .01); however, the difference was greatest in patients with an adequate first-phase decrease in HCV RNA. IP10-induction correlated with first- and second-phase kinetics and with ribavirin serum concentrations on day 3. HCV mutation rates were similar between groups. Conclusions: Ribavirin improves the kinetics of the early response to therapy in patients with an adequate initial response to peginterferon. Induction of interferon-stimulated cytokines correlates with viral kinetics following ribavirin therapy, suggesting that ribavirin promotes interferon signaling. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Ribavirin remains essential to chronic hepatitis C treatment. This paper investigates the influence of ribavirin priming to steady state before combined pegylated-interferon/ribavirin treatment on viral kinetics, ribavirin trough concentrations, genetic variability within HCV-core, -NS5B and -NS5A, and response to antiviral therapy. A prospective cohort study was made of 27 chronic hepatitis C genotype 1 naïve patients who received four weeks of ribavirin followed by pegIFN-α-2a/ribavirin for 48 weeks (Group A). The results obtained were compared with those for a control/historical group (Group B). In addition, direct sequencing and pyrosequencing were applied to determine ribavirin monotherapy-induced sequence changes. The rapid, early, and sustained virological response values obtained were 48%, 89%, and 52%, respectively, in Group A, and 52%, 90%, and 52% in Group B (P > 0.05). In the four-week combined treatment, the Group A patients showed a greater decrease in HCV-RNA (2.3 log10  IU/ml vs. 1.2 log10  IU/ml; P = 0.04), lower alanine aminotransferase levels (23.5 ± 1.33 U/L vs. 60.11 ± 18 U/L; P < 0.001) and higher mean ribavirin trough concentrations (3.28 ± 1.26 mg/L vs. 1.74 ± 0.7 mg/L; P = 0.001). No general increase in rates of nucleotide substitutions in the ribavirin monotherapy-treated patients was observed in NS5B, ISDR, or PKRbd, but there was a decrease in silent mutations in the HCV core (P = 0.04). This result was confirmed by pyrosequencing in the NS5A region. It is concluded that the ribavirin priming combined treatment with pegIFN-α-2a does not improve sustained virological response rates in HCV genotype 1 naïve infected patients. However, the greater reductions in viral load and alanine aminotransferase levels, together with the higher ribavirin trough concentration values obtained, could reflect the greater effectiveness of the treatment. Ribavirin does not have a mutagenic effect on the virus in patients with chronic hepatitis C., (© 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

The basic model for chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection during therapy enables us to analyze short-term viral kinetics. However, the model is not useful for analyzing long-term viral kinetics. Here, I suggest a new model that was obtained by introducing Michaelis-Menten kinetics into the basic model. The new model can exhibit long-term viral kinetics without rebound and oscillation, unlike the basic model. The value of the parameter K in the new model is analogous to the Michaelis constant Km and is predicted to be approximately less than 10(10)/ml., (© 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Aim: To characterise the viral kinetics of enterovirus 71 (EV71)., Methods: In this study, human rhabdomyosarcoma (RD) cells were infected with EV71 at different multiplicity of infection (MOI). After infection, the cytopathic effect (CPE) was monitored and recorded using a phase contrast microscope associated with a CCD camera at different time points post viral infection (0, 6, 12, 24 h post infection). Cell growth and viability were measured by 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay in both EV71 infected and mock infected cells at each time point. EV71 replication kinetics in RD cells was determined by measuring the total intracellular viral RNA with real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Also, the intracellular and extracellular virion RNA was isolated and quantified at different time points to analyze the viral package and secretion. The expression of viral protein was determined by analyze the levels of viral structure protein VP1 with Western blotting., Results: EV71 infection induced a significant CPE as early as 6 h post infection (p.i.) in both RD cells infected with high ratio of virus (MOI 10) and low ratio of virus (MOI 1). In EV71 infected cells, the cell growth was inhibited and the number of viable cells was rapidly decreased in the later phase of infection. EV71 virions were uncoated immediately after entry. The intracellular viral RNA began to increase at as early as 3 h p.i. and the exponential increase was found between 3 h to 6 h p.i. in both infected groups. For viral structure protein synthesis, results from western-blot showed that intracellular viral protein VP1 could not be detected until 6 h p.i. in the cells infected at either MOI 1 or MOI 10; and reached the peak at 9 h p.i. in the cells infected with EV71 at both MOI 1 and MOI 10. Simultaneously, the viral package and secretion were also actively processed as the virus underwent rapid replication. The viral package kinetics was comparable for both MOI 1 and MOI 10 infected groups. It was observed that at 3 h p.i, the intracellular virions obviously decreased, thereafter, the intracellular virions began to increase and enter into the exponential phase until 12 h p.i. The total amounts of intracellular virons were decreased from 12 to 24 h p.i. Consistent with this result, the increase of virus secretion occurred during 6 to 12 h p.i., Conclusion: The viral kinetics of EV71 were established by analyzing viral replication, package and secretion in RD cells.