351. Health outcomes 3 months and 6 months after molnupiravir treatment for COVID-19 for people at higher risk in the community (PANORAMIC): a randomised controlled trial.
- Author
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Harris V, Holmes J, Gbinigie-Thompson O, Rahman NM, Richards DB, Hayward G, Dorward J, Lowe DM, Standing JF, Breuer J, Khoo S, Petrou S, Hood K, Ahmed H, Carson-Stevens A, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Patel MG, Saville BR, Francis N, Thomas NPB, Evans P, Dobson M, Png ME, Lown M, van Hecke O, Jani BD, Hart ND, Butler D, Cureton L, Patil M, Andersson M, Coates M, Bateman C, Davies JC, Raymundo-Wood I, Ustianowski A, Yu LM, Hobbs FDR, Little P, and Butler CC
- Abstract
Background: No randomised controlled trials have yet reported on the effectiveness of molnupiravir on longer term outcomes for COVID-19. The PANORAMIC trial found molnupiravir reduced time to recovery in acute COVID-19 over 28 days. We aimed to report the effect of molnupiravir treatment for COVID-19 on wellbeing, severe and persistent symptoms, new infections, health care and social service use, medication use, and time off work at 3 months and 6 months post-randomisation., Methods: This study is a follow-up to the main analysis, which was based on the first 28 days of follow-up and has been previously reported. For this multicentre, primary care, open-label, multi-arm, prospective randomised controlled trial conducted in the UK, participants were eligible if aged at least 50 years, or at least 18 years with a comorbidity, and unwell 5 days or less with confirmed COVID-19 in the community. Participants were randomly assigned to the usual care group or molnupiravir group plus usual care (800 mg twice a day for 5 days), which was stratified by age (<50 years or ≥50 years) and vaccination status (at least one dose: yes or no). The primary outcome was hospitalisation or death (or both) at 28 days; all longer term outcomes were considered to be secondary outcomes and included self-reported ratings of wellness (on a scale of 0-10), experiencing any symptom (fever, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, muscle ache, nausea and vomiting, diarrhoea, loss of smell or taste, headache, dizziness, abdominal pain, and generally feeling unwell) rated as severe (moderately bad or major problem) or persistent, any health and social care use, health-related quality of life (measured by the EQ-5D-5L), time off work or school, new infections, and hospitalisation., Findings: Between Dec 8, 2021, and April 27, 2022, 25 783 participants were randomly assigned to the molnupiravir plus usual care group (n=12 821) or usual care group (n=12 962). Long-term follow-up data were available for 23 008 (89·2%) of 25 784 participants with 11 778 (91·9%) of 12 821 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group and 11 230 (86·6%) of 12 963 in the usual care group. 22 806 (99·1%) of 23 008 had at least one previous dose of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Any severe (3 months: adjusted risk difference -1·6% [-2·6% to -0·6%]; probability superiority [p(sup)]>0·99; number needed to treat [NNT] 62·5; 6 months: -1·9% [-2·9% to -0·9%]; p(sup)>0·99, NNT 52·6) or persistent symptoms (3 months: adjusted risk difference -2·1% [-2·9% to -1·5%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 47·6; 6 months: -2·5% [-3·3% to -1·6%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 40) were reduced in severity, and health-related quality of life (measured by the EQ-5D-5L) improved in the molnupiravir plus usual care group at 3 months and 6 months (3 months: adjusted mean difference 1·08 [0·65 to 1·53]; p(sup)>0·99; 6 months: 1·09 [0·63 to 1·55]; p(sup)>0·99). Ratings of wellness (3 months: adjusted mean difference 0·15 (0·11 to 0·19); p(sup)>0·99; 6 months: 0·12 (0·07 to 0·16); p(sup)>0·99), experiencing any more severe symptom (3 months; adjusted risk difference -1·6% [-2·6% to -0·6%]; p(sup)=0·99; 6 months: -1·9% [-2·9% to -0·9%]; p(sup)>0·99), and health-care use (3 months: adjusted risk difference -1·4% [-2·3% to -0·4%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 71·4; 6 months: -0·5% [-1·5% to 0·4%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 200) had high probabilities of superiority with molnupiravir treatment. There were significant differences in persistence of any symptom (910 [8·9%] of 10 190 vs 1027 [11%] of 9332, NNT 67) at 6 months, and reported time off work at 3 months (2017 [17·9%] of 11 274 vs 2385 [22·4%] of 10 628) and 6 months (460 [4·4%] of 10 562 vs 527 [5·4%] of 9846; NNT 100). There were no differences in hospitalisations at long-term follow-up., Interpretation: In a vaccinated population, people treated with molnupiravir for acute COVID-19 felt better, experienced fewer and less severe COVID-19 associated symptoms, accessed health care less often, and took less time off work at 6 months. However, the absolute differences in this open-label design are small with high numbers needed to treat., Funding: UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health and Care Research., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests JSN-V-T was seconded to the Department of Health and Social Care, England from Oct 1, 2017, to March 31, 2022. On June 15, 2023, JSN-V-T completed one 3-h paid consultancy assignment for Merck Sharp & Dohme on a subject unrelated to COVID-19, and has given two paid lectures for Gilead who have manufactured COVID-19 treatments in 2022–23, and one paid lecture for AstraZeneca in 2022, who manufacture COVID-19 vaccines. JSN-V-T has consulted occasionally for Moderna (May 1, 2023 onwards) who manufacture COVID-19 vaccines. DML has received personal fees from Gilead for an educational video and from Merck for a roundtable discussion, speaker fees from Biotest, Takeda, and Astra Zeneca, and support to attend a conference from Octapharma. DML holds research grants from GlaxoSmithKline and Bristol Myers Squibb, has received consultancy fees from GlaxoSmithKline paid to his institution, all outside the current work, and reports giving lectures for Biotest, Takeda, and AstraZeneca. JFS has participated in a Data and Safety Monitoring Committee for the sotrovimab paediatric programme for GlaxoSmithKline (fee paid to the institution). JB reports being the Principle Investigator on The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency commissioned study with GlaxoSmithKline to look at the evolution of variants in sotrovimab treated patients, and consulting fees from GlaxoSmithKline, hVIVO, Moderna, and Symbios (donated to UCL). SK has been a speaker for Pfizer and ViiV Healthcare. KH reports a grant to Cardiff University (via University of Oxford), and was on the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment General Committee and Health Technology Assessment Funding Strategy Group until November, 2022, and is currently Deputy Chair of the Research Professors panel. BRS reports consulting fees were paid to his former employer (Berry Consultants) for tiral design and implementation. NPBT reports being on a single advisory board in July, 2021, with Merck & Co. OvH reports consulting fees from MindGap. AU reports honoria from Merck & Co, Gilead Sciences, Pfizer, and Astra Zeneca in relation to this disease area and manuscript. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
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- 2024
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