351. Mapping Policy Preferences with Uncertainty: Measuring and Correcting Error in Comparative Manifesto Project Estimates (Preliminary).
- Author
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Benoit, Kenneth, Laver, Michael, and Mikhaylov, Slava
- Subjects
- *
POLITICAL parties , *POLICY sciences , *POLITICAL planning , *PROBABILITY theory , *STOCHASTIC processes - Abstract
In this work in progress, we focus on a well-known source of data on political party positions on policy: the decades-long comparative manifesto project (CMP). Measuring party positions on policy across time and space, this dataset has been the most widely cited source of party positions in comparative political studies of such phenomena as government duration and formation, electoral outcomes, and policy mandate studies. Despite its widespread use, however, the level of error in the estimates of party positions contained in the dataset has never been estimated or even fully characterized. As a remedy, we outline the process of generating CMP codings and positional estimates, identifying measurement error as coming from coder unreliability, as well as fundamental variability in the stochastic process by which latent party positions are translated into manifesto texts when these documents are written. Using actual quasi-sentence codings from the CMP project, we reproduce the error-generating process through simulation of coder unreliability as well as bootstrapping of coded quasi-sentences to reproduce both forms of error. Using the measurements of this error, furthermore, we suggest and demonstrate ways to use these error estimates in subsequent analyses using the CMP data. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2007