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Background: Culex (Cx.) tritaeniorhynchus is an invasive mosquito species with an extensive and expanding inter-continental distribution, currently reported across Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Europe and now Australia. It is an important vector of medical and veterinary pathogens which cause significant morbidity and mortality in human and animal populations. Across regions endemic for Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), Cx. tritaeniorhynchus is considered the major vector and has also been shown to contribute to the transmission of several other zoonotic arboviruses including Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) and West Nile virus (WNV)., Methods: In this study, we used laboratory vector competence experiments to determine if Cx. tritaeniorhynchus from a Southern European population were competent JEV vectors. We also obtained samples from multiple geographically dispersed Cx. tritaeniorhynchus populations from countries within Europe, Africa, Eurasia and Asia to perform phylogenetic analysis to measure the level of mitochondrial divergence using the cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 ( CO1 ) gene. We also undertook bacterial 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to determine microbial diversity and used multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) to determine any evidence for the presence of strains of the naturally occurring endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia ., Results: Cx. tritaeniorhynchus from a Greek population were shown be be competent vectors of JEV with high levels of virus present in saliva. We found a signficant level of mitochondrial genetic diversity using the mosquito CO1 gene between geographically dispersed populations. Furthermore, we report diverse microbiomes identified by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing within and between geographical populations. Evidence for the detection of the endosymbiotic bacteria Wolbachia was confirmed using Wolbachia -specific PCR and MLST., Conclusions: This study enhances our understanding of the diversity of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus and the associated microbiome across its inter-continental range and highlights the need for greater surveillance of this invasive vector species in Europe., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2024 Jeffries CL et al.)

Introduction: In low-and-middle-income countries, many people live near livestock. Rural livelihoods need improvement, however livestock-sector growth is a 'wicked' problem, needing careful management and One Health approaches which balance positive aspects of livestock ownership against deleterious impacts., Materials and Methods: A Key Informant survey was delivered to higher education and research institute Units in Horn of Africa, to quantify baseline estimates for One Health research, understand characteristics, and risk factors for usage., Principal Results: Four-fifths of Units acknowledged some One Health research; however, this was biased towards human-focused dimensions including at the human/animal/environment-interface and human/animal-interface; One Health approaches were also more often reported when all or the animal/environment dimensions were examined. We detected subject-bias impacting environment-focus in research; only research-focused Units had staff with higher environmental science degrees. Our work suggested good national research buy-in, and Units engaging with national policy-makers most often; local policy-makers were least engaged. Four-fifths of Units had laboratories, with two-thirds processing either human or animal samples and half processing both. Funding for equipment purchase, supplies and maintenance, staff training on technical/safety issues was nearly half that previously identified., Major Conclusions: The necessity for One Health research approaches is acknowledged, however our results suggest persistent and systemic neglect of the environment in approaches and research staff education, and a lack of integration across government hierarchies during policy-development, potentially driven by international organisation domination. Further, Units lack funding for laboratory equipment purchase/supplies/maintenance, and staff training on technical/safety issues., Competing Interests: We declare no competing interests., (© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Usutu virus (USUV) is an emerging arbovirus belonging to the family Flaviviridae , genus Flavivirus . It is maintained in an enzootic cycle, with mosquitos as the vector and birds as the main amplifying host. Humans, and other mammals such as horses, are dead-end hosts. The virus was originally detected in sub-Saharan Africa, but in the past two decades has spread across Europe. In certain bird species, such as the Eurasian blackbird ( Turdus merula ), USUV is extremely virulent and can be fatal. Human infection is rare and often asymptomatic, but multiple short-term neurological diseases have been reported, highlighting its public-health risk.

Haemosporidians are a widespread group of blood parasites transmitted by vectors. Despite their relevance for bird conservation, few studies have been conducted in the Amazonia and even less in terrestrial wild birds. We analysed blood samples from 168 game birds, collected from 2008 to 2015 by subsistence hunters of an indigenous rural community in the Peruvian Amazonia. DNA was tested for Haemoproteus spp., Plasmodium spp. and Leucocytozoon spp. and positive amplicons were sequenced and curated for phylogenetic analysis. Haemosporidian prevalence was 72% overall, 66.7% for Haemoproteus spp. and 5.4% for Plasmodium spp. and respectively by bird species: Spix's Guan (Penelope jacquacu, n = 72) 87.5% and 0%, Razor-billed Curassow (Mitu tuberosum, n = 45) 77.8% and 6.7%, White-winged Trumpeter (Psophia leucoptera, n = 20) 6.3% and 12.5%, Blue-throated Piping-guan (Pipile cumanensis, n = 16) 73.3% and 6.7%, and Great Tinamou (Tinamus major, n = 15) 10% and 15%. Leucocytozoon spp. was not found. P. leucoptera and T. major were less likely to be infected with Haemoproteus spp. Fruit abundance had a negative association with Haemoproteus spp. prevalence and precipitation was negatively associated with Plasmodium spp. prevalence. The 106 sequences examined represented 29 lineages, 82.8% of them were new lineages (Plasmodium n = 3, Haemoproteus n = 21). Novel host-parasite associations and lineages were unveiled, including probably new species of Plasmodium spp. Our results highlight the scientific value of alternative sampling methods and the collaboration with local communities., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

In 2017, a mortality event affected Humboldt penguins at Chester Zoo (UK), which coincided with the diagnosis of avian malaria (AM) in some birds. AM is found worldwide wherever a competent mosquito vector is present, but the disease is particularly severe in penguins and other species that originate from non-endemic regions. To better understand the role of AM and manage its threat to penguin collections, Plasmodium was surveyed through PCR at Chester Zoo in mosquitoes, penguins, and dead free-living wild birds during and around the mortality event. Additional sequences were obtained from penguin fatalities from four other UK zoological collections. All sequences were integrated into phylogenetic analyses to determine parasite species and lineages. In total, 753/6459 positive mosquitoes were recorded (11.7% prevalence), reaching a weekly peak of 30% prevalence in mid-summer. Among penguin fatalities at Chester Zoo, several penguins presented signs and lesions compatible with AM; nevertheless, exoerythrocytic meronts were identified in only one case and Plasmodium spp. was identified in 5/22 birds. Phylogenetic analysis revealed at least five parasite cytb lineages of three Plasmodium species ( P. matutinum, P. relictum and P. vaughani ) circulating in mosquitoes at Chester Zoo; however, infections in free-living wild birds and penguins were only from P. matutinum . Plasmodium matutinum was confirmed as the cause of death of one penguin and was highly suspected to be the cause of death of another three. The lineage LINN1 was associated with 4/5 penguin infections. AM had a key role in the penguin multicausal mortality event. Understanding the risk of AM to penguin collections at Chester Zoo and elsewhere requires long-term surveillance to examine the association between Plasmodium infection and penguin mortality and the variability in parasite virulence. Surveillance of Plasmodium spp. in mosquitoes and local birds provides information about the parasite's transmission cycle locally, and could warn about infection risks to species of interest, which is essential for efficient disease control and prevention., Competing Interests: None., (© 2022 The Authors.)

A disease with clinical and post-mortem presentation similar to those seen in heartwater, a tick-borne disease of domestic and wild ruminants caused by the intracellular bacterium Ehrlichia ruminantium, was first reported in dromedary camels in Kenya in 2016; investigations carried out at the time to determine the cause were inconclusive. In the present study, we screened sera from Kenyan camels collected before (2015) and after (2020) the 2016 disease outbreak for antibodies to Ehrlichia spp. using an E. ruminantium polyclonal competitive ELISA (PC-ELISA). Median antibody levels were significantly higher (p < 0.0001) amongst camels originating from areas where the heartwater-like disease was reported than from disease-free areas, for animals sampled in both 2015 and 2020. Overall median seropositivity was higher in camels sampled in 2015 than in 2020, which could have been due to higher mean age in the former group. Camels that were PCR-positive for Candidatus Ehrlichia regneryi had significantly lower (p = 0.03) median antibody levels than PCR-negative camels. Our results indicate that Kenyan camels are frequently exposed to E. ruminantium from an early age, E. ruminantium was unlikely to have been the sole cause of the outbreak of heartwater-like disease; and Ca. E. regneryi does not appreciably cross-react with E. ruminantium in the PC-ELISA.

Our knowledge of viral host ranges remains limited. Completing this picture by identifying unknown hosts of known viruses is an important research aim that can help identify and mitigate zoonotic and animal-disease risks, such as spill-over from animal reservoirs into human populations. To address this knowledge-gap we apply a divide-and-conquer approach which separates viral, mammalian and network features into three unique perspectives, each predicting associations independently to enhance predictive power. Our approach predicts over 20,000 unknown associations between known viruses and susceptible mammalian species, suggesting that current knowledge underestimates the number of associations in wild and semi-domesticated mammals by a factor of 4.3, and the average potential mammalian host-range of viruses by a factor of 3.2. In particular, our results highlight a significant knowledge gap in the wild reservoirs of important zoonotic and domesticated mammals' viruses: specifically, lyssaviruses, bornaviruses and rotaviruses.

Approximately a year into the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, many countries have seen additional "waves" of infections, especially in the temperate northern hemisphere. Other vulnerable regions, such as South Africa and several parts of South America have also seen cases rise, further impacting local economies and livelihoods. Despite substantial research efforts to date, it remains unresolved as to whether COVID-19 transmission has the same sensitivity to climate observed for other common respiratory viruses such as seasonal influenza. Here, we look for empirical evidence of seasonality using a robust estimation framework. For 359 large cities across the world, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) using logistic growth curves fitted to cumulative case data. We then assess evidence for association with climatic variables through ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. We find evidence of seasonality, with lower R 0 within cities experiencing greater surface radiation (coefficient = -0.005, p < 0.001), after adjusting for city-level variation in demographic and disease control factors. Additionally, we find association between R 0 and temperature during the early phase of the epidemic in China. However, climatic variables had much weaker explanatory power compared to socioeconomic and disease control factors. Rates of transmission and health burden of the continuing pandemic will be ultimately determined by population factors and disease control policies., Competing Interests: None., (© 2021 The Authors.)

Novel pathogenic coronaviruses - such as SARS-CoV and probably SARS-CoV-2 - arise by homologous recombination between co-infecting viruses in a single cell. Identifying possible sources of novel coronaviruses therefore requires identifying hosts of multiple coronaviruses; however, most coronavirus-host interactions remain unknown. Here, by deploying a meta-ensemble of similarity learners from three complementary perspectives (viral, mammalian and network), we predict which mammals are hosts of multiple coronaviruses. We predict that there are 11.5-fold more coronavirus-host associations, over 30-fold more potential SARS-CoV-2 recombination hosts, and over 40-fold more host species with four or more different subgenera of coronaviruses than have been observed to date at >0.5 mean probability cut-off (2.4-, 4.25- and 9-fold, respectively, at >0.9821). Our results demonstrate the large underappreciation of the potential scale of novel coronavirus generation in wild and domesticated animals. We identify high-risk species for coronavirus surveillance.

The presence of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) was detected in a questing tick pool in southern England in September 2019. Hitherto, TBEV had only been detected in a limited area in eastern England. This southern English viral genome sequence is distinct from TBEV-UK, being most similar to TBEV-NL. The new location of TBEV presence highlights that the diagnosis of tick-borne encephalitis should be considered in encephalitic patients in areas of the United Kingdom outside eastern England.

In the Anthropocene, in which we now live, climate change is impacting most life on Earth. Microorganisms support the existence of all higher trophic life forms. To understand how humans and other life forms on Earth (including those we are yet to discover) can withstand anthropogenic climate change, it is vital to incorporate knowledge of the microbial 'unseen majority'. We must learn not just how microorganisms affect climate change (including production and consumption of greenhouse gases) but also how they will be affected by climate change and other human activities. This Consensus Statement documents the central role and global importance of microorganisms in climate change biology. It also puts humanity on notice that the impact of climate change will depend heavily on responses of microorganisms, which are essential for achieving an environmentally sustainable future.

Background: It is estimated that 13% of arthropod species carry the heritable symbiont Cardinium hertigii . 16S rRNA and gyrB sequence divides this species into at least four groups (A-D), with the A group infecting a range of arthropods, the B group infecting nematode worms, the C group infecting Culicoides biting midges, and the D group associated with the marine copepod Nitocra spinipes . To date, genome sequence has only been available for strains from groups A and B, impeding general understanding of the evolutionary history of the radiation. We present a draft genome sequence for a C group Cardinium , motivated both by the paucity of genomic information outside of the A and B group, and the importance of Culicoides biting midge hosts as arbovirus vectors., Methods: We reconstructed the genome of c Cpun, a Cardinium strain from group C that naturally infects Culicoides punctatus , through Illumina sequencing of infected host specimens., Results: The draft genome presented has high completeness, with BUSCO scores comparable to closed group A Cardinium genomes. Phylogenomic analysis based on concatenated single copy core proteins do not support Cardinium from arthropod hosts as a monophyletic group, with nematode Cardinium strains nested within the two groups infecting arthropod hosts. Analysis of the genome of c Cpun revealed expansion of a variety of gene families classically considered important in symbiosis (e.g., ankyrin domain containing genes), and one set-characterized by DUF1703 domains-not previously associated with symbiotic lifestyle. This protein group encodes putative secreted nucleases, and the c Cpun genome carried at least 25 widely divergent paralogs, 24 of which shared a common ancestor in the C group. The genome revealed no evidence in support of B vitamin provisioning to its haematophagous host, and indeed suggests Cardinium may be a net importer of biotin., Discussion: These data indicate strains of Cardinium within nematodes cluster within Cardinium strains found in insects. The draft genome of c Cpun further produces new hypotheses as to the interaction of the symbiont with the midge host, in particular the biological role of DUF1703 nuclease proteins that are predicted as being secreted by c Cpun. In contrast, the coding content of this genome provides no support for a role for the symbiont in provisioning the host with B vitamins., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Tick cell lines are increasingly used in many fields of tick and tick-borne disease research. The Tick Cell Biobank was established in 2009 to facilitate the development and uptake of these unique and valuable resources. As well as serving as a repository for existing and new ixodid and argasid tick cell lines, the Tick Cell Biobank supplies cell lines and training in their maintenance to scientists worldwide and generates novel cultures from tick species not already represented in the collection. Now part of the Institute of Infection and Global Health at the University of Liverpool, the Tick Cell Biobank has embarked on a new phase of activity particularly targeted at research on problems caused by ticks, other arthropods and the diseases they transmit in less-developed, lower- and middle-income countries. We are carrying out genotypic and phenotypic characterisation of selected cell lines derived from tropical tick species. We continue to expand the culture collection, currently comprising 63 cell lines derived from 18 ixodid and argasid tick species and one each from the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis and the biting midge Culicoides sonorensis, and are actively engaging with collaborators to obtain starting material for primary cell cultures from other midge species, mites, tsetse flies and bees. Outposts of the Tick Cell Biobank will be set up in Malaysia, Kenya and Brazil to facilitate uptake and exploitation of cell lines and associated training by scientists in these and neighbouring countries. Thus the Tick Cell Biobank will continue to underpin many areas of global research into biology and control of ticks, other arthropods and vector-borne viral, bacterial and protozoan pathogens., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.)

Fasciola hepatica is a parasitic trematode of global importance in livestock. Control strategies reliant on anthelmintics are unsustainable due to the emergence of drug resistance. Vaccines are under development, but efficacies are variable. Evidence from experimental infection suggests that vaccine efficacy may be affected by parasite-induced immunomodulation. Little is known about the immune response to F. hepatica following natural exposure. Hence, we analyzed the immune responses over time in calves naturally exposed to F. hepatica infection. Cohorts of replacement dairy heifer calves ( n = 42) with no prior exposure to F. hepatica , on three commercial dairy farms, were sampled over the course of a grazing season. Exposure was determined through an F. hepatica -specific serum antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and fluke egg counts. Concurrent changes in peripheral blood leukocyte subpopulations, lymphocyte proliferation, and cytokine responses were measured. Relationships between fluke infection and immune responses were analyzed by using multivariable linear mixed-effect models. All calves from one farm showed evidence of exposure, while cohorts from the remaining two farms remained negative over the grazing season. A type 2 immune response was associated with exposure, with increased interleukin-4 (IL-4) production, IL-5 transcription, and eosinophilia. Suppression of parasite-specific peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) proliferation was evident, while decreased mitogen-stimulated gamma interferon (IFN-γ) production suggested immunomodulation, which was not restricted to parasite-specific responses. Our findings show that the global immune response is modulated toward a nonproliferative type 2 state following natural challenge with F. hepatica This has implications in terms of the timing of the administration of vaccination programs and for host susceptibility to coinfecting pathogens., (Copyright © 2017 Graham-Brown et al.)

Climate change is expected to threaten human health and well-being via its effects on climate-sensitive infectious diseases, potentially changing their spatial distributions, affecting annual/seasonal cycles, or altering disease incidence and severity. Climate sensitivity of pathogens is a key indicator that diseases might respond to climate change, but the proportion of pathogens that is climate-sensitive, and their characteristics, are not known. The climate sensitivity of European human and domestic animal infectious pathogens, and the characteristics associated with sensitivity, were assessed systematically in terms of selection of pathogens and choice of literature reviewed. Sixty-three percent (N = 157) of pathogens were climate sensitive; 82% to primary drivers such as rainfall and temperature. Protozoa and helminths, vector-borne, foodborne, soilborne and waterborne transmission routes were associated with larger numbers of climate drivers. Zoonotic pathogens were more climate sensitive than human- or animal-only pathogens. Thirty-seven percent of disability-adjusted-life-years arise from human infectious diseases that are sensitive to primary climate drivers. These results help prioritize surveillance for pathogens that may respond to climate change. Although this study identifies a high degree of climate sensitivity among important pathogens, their response to climate change will be dependent on the nature of their association with climate drivers and impacts of other drivers.

Purpose of Review: Wolbachia is a genus of Gram-negative intracellular bacteria that is naturally found in more than half of all arthropod species. These bacteria cannot only reduce the fitness and the reproductive capacities of arthropod vectors, but also increase their resistance to arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses). This article reviews the evidence supporting a Wolbachia-based strategy for controlling the transmission of dengue and other arboviral infections., Recent Findings: Studies conducted 1 year after the field release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Australia have demonstrated the suppression of dengue virus (DENV) replication in and dissemination by mosquitoes. Recent mathematical models show that this strategy could reduce the transmission of DENV by 70%. Consequently, the WHO is encouraging countries to boost the development and implementation of Wolbachia-based prevention strategies against other arboviral infections. However, the evidence regarding the efficacy of Wolbachia to prevent the transmission of other arboviral infections is still limited to an experimental framework with conflicting results in some cases. There is a need to demonstrate the efficacy of such strategies in the field under various climatic conditions, to select the Wolbachia strain that has the best pathogen interference/spread trade-off, and to continue to build community acceptance., Summary: Wolbachia represents a promising tool for controlling the transmission of arboviral infections that needs to be developed further. Long-term environmental monitoring will be necessary for timely detection of potential changes in Wolbachia/vector/virus interactions.

Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R 0 mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two key mosquito vector species: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus The model was parameterized and calibrated using the most up to date information from the available literature. It was then driven by observed gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for the period 1950-2015. We find that the transmission risk in South America in 2015 was the highest since 1950. This maximum is related to favoring temperature conditions that caused the simulated biting rates to be largest and mosquito mortality rates and extrinsic incubation periods to be smallest in 2015. This event followed the suspected introduction of ZIKV in Brazil in 2013. The ZIKV outbreak in Latin America has very likely been fueled by the 2015-2016 El Niño climate phenomenon affecting the region. The highest transmission risk globally is in South America and tropical countries where Ae. aegypti is abundant. Transmission risk is strongly seasonal in temperate regions where Ae. albopictus is present, with significant risk of ZIKV transmission in the southeastern states of the United States, in southern China, and to a lesser extent, over southern Europe during the boreal summer season., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Pathogenesis of an IS/885/00-like (IS/885) strain of variant infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) was examined in one day old specific pathogen free (SPF) and commercial broiler chicks. Chicks were humanely euthanized at 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 21 and 28 days post infection (dpi) for necropsy examination, and tissues were collected for histopathology and virus detection by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Respiratory clinical signs and gross lesions consisting of tracheal caseous exudate and plugs, and swollen kidneys (with or without) urate deposits were observed in SPF and broiler chicks. The onset of disease developed more slowly and were of lesser severity in broiler compared to SPF chicks, reflecting the inhibitory effects of the IBV maternal-antibodies in the broiler chicks or genetic/strain susceptibility, or both. Head swelling was observed in one infected broiler chick at 15 dpi and the virus was recovered by RT-PCR and isolation. In the IS/885-infected SPF chicks, cystic oviducts were found in two female chicks. IS/885 was isolated from the cystic fluid. Using ELISA, low to moderate levels of the antibodies to IBV was detected in the SPF compared to broiler infected chicks., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The liver fluke Fasciola hepatica is a trematode parasite with a worldwide distribution and is the cause of important production losses in the dairy industry. The aim of this observational study was to assess the prevalence of exposure to F. hepatica in a group of high yielding dairy herds, to determine the risk factors and investigate their associations with production and fertility parameters. Bulk milk tank samples from 606 herds that supply a single retailer with liquid milk were tested with an antibody ELISA for F. hepatica. Multivariable linear regression was used to investigate the effect of farm management and environmental risk factors on F. hepatica exposure. Higher rainfall, grazing boggy pasture, presence of beef cattle on farm, access to a stream or pond and smaller herd size were associated with an increased risk of exposure. Univariable regression was used to look for associations between fluke exposure and production-related variables including milk yield, composition, somatic cell count and calving index. Although causation cannot be assumed, a significant (p<0.001) negative association was seen between F. hepatica exposure and estimated milk yield at the herd level, representing a 15% decrease in yield for an increase in F. hepatica exposure from the 25th to the 75th percentile. This remained significant when fertility, farm management and environmental factors were controlled for. No associations were found between F. hepatica exposure and any of the other production, disease or fertility variables., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the most well studied arthropod zoonotic diseases with human and animal research and their integration spanning 6-7 decades. JE research and policy in some Asian countries has epitomized the 'One Health' strategy of attainment of optimal health for people, animals, and the environment. However, despite significant mitigation of JE in some Asian countries primarily due to vaccination programs and infrastructural development, JE continues to be a major disease burden in the Asian region. Arthropod-borne zoonotic infections such as JE present some of the greatest challenges to animal and human health globally. Their emergence involves a complex interplay of vectors, hosts, environment, climate, and anthropogenic factors. Therefore, the integrated management of infectious agents that affect both humans and animals is perhaps the most highly coveted strategy that public health policy makers aspire to attain in the twenty-first century. This is in response to the seemingly growing challenges of controlling the burden of emerging infectious diseases such as shrinking financial budgets and resources, increasing demand for public health deliverables, demographic shifts and mobility, global trade economies, and climate and landscape changes. Thus, while JE research and policy is an excellent example of the One Health strategy in action, further work is required to address the obstinate burden of transmission.

Although no naturally infected sheep with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has ever been discovered, it remains possible that BSE once infected the UK sheep population, has been transmitted between sheep, and is still present today. We constructed a mathematical model to assess the current maximum theoretical exposure to consumers from BSE-infected ovine material and to estimate the risk reduction that could be achieved by abattoir-based control options if BSE-infected sheep were ever found in the national flock. We predict that, if present, the exposure to consumers from a single BSE-infected sheep would be high: one sheep, close to the end of its incubation period, is likely to contribute 10-1000 times more infectious material than a fully infectious cow. Furthermore, 30% of this exposure comes from infectivity residing in lymphatic and peripheral tissue that cannot be completely removed from a carcass. We are 95% confident that throughout Great Britain, no more than four sheep flocks currently harbour an ongoing BSE epidemic. However, since the exposure from a single infected sheep is high, the annual human exposure from four 'typical' BSE-infected flocks could be considerable. Small reductions in exposure could be achieved by strategies based on tissue testing, a 12-month age restriction or expanded definitions of high-risk tissues. A six-month age restriction is likely to be more effective and genotype-based strategies the most effective.