501. Simplification of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index for Prognostication in Patients With Acute Symptomatic Pulmonary Embolism
- Author
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David, Jiménez, Drahomir, Aujesky, Lisa, Moores, Vicente, Gómez, José Luis, Lobo, Fernando, Uresandi, Remedios, Otero, Manuel, Monreal, Alfonso, Muriel, Roger D, Yusen, and Adriana, Visonà
- Subjects
Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Clinical prediction rule ,Logistic regression ,Risk Assessment ,Severity of Illness Index ,Predictive Value of Tests ,Risk Factors ,Internal medicine ,Outpatients ,80 and over ,Internal Medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,Prospective Studies ,Registries ,Prospective cohort study ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,Aged, 80 and over ,business.industry ,Reproducibility of Results ,Retrospective cohort study ,Middle Aged ,Prognosis ,medicine.disease ,Confidence interval ,Pulmonary embolism ,Surgery ,Logistic Models ,ROC Curve ,Spain ,Predictive value of tests ,Acute Disease ,Cohort ,Cardiology ,Female ,Pulmonary Embolism ,business - Abstract
The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) estimates the risk of 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We constructed a simplified version of the PESI.The study retrospectively developed a simplified PESI clinical prediction rule for estimating the risk of 30-day mortality in a derivation cohort of Spanish outpatients. Simplified and original PESI performances were compared in the derivation cohort. The simplified PESI underwent retrospective external validation in an independent multinational cohort (Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad Tromboembólica [RIETE] cohort) of outpatients.In the derivation data set, univariate logistic regression of the original 11 PESI variables led to the removal of variables that did not reach statistical significance and subsequently produced the simplified PESI that contained the variables of age, cancer, chronic cardiopulmonary disease, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, and oxyhemoglobin saturation levels. The prognostic accuracy of the original and simplified PESI scores did not differ (area under the curve, 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-0.80]). The 305 of 995 patients (30.7%) who were classified as low risk by the simplified PESI had a 30-day mortality of 1.0% (95% CI, 0.0%-2.1%) compared with 10.9% (8.5%-13.2%) in the high-risk group. In the RIETE validation cohort, 2569 of 7106 patients (36.2%) who were classified as low risk by the simplified PESI had a 30-day mortality of 1.1% (95% CI, 0.7%-1.5%) compared with 8.9% (8.1%-9.8%) in the high-risk group.The simplified PESI has similar prognostic accuracy and clinical utility and greater ease of use compared with the original PESI.
- Published
- 2010
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