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Late in 2020, two genetically-distinct clusters of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with mutations of biological concern were reported, one in the United Kingdom and one in South Africa. Using a combination of data from routine surveillance, genomic sequencing and international travel we track the international dispersal of lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 (variant 501Y-V2). We account for potential biases in genomic surveillance efforts by including passenger volumes from location of where the lineage was first reported, London and South Africa respectively. Using the software tool grinch (global report investigating novel coronavirus haplotypes), we track the international spread of lineages of concern with automated daily reports, Further, we have built a custom tracking website (cov-lineages.org/global_report.html) which hosts this daily report and will continue to include novel SARS-CoV-2 lineages of concern as they are detected., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2021 O'Toole Á et al.)

Continued uncontrolled transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in many parts of the world is creating conditions for substantial evolutionary changes to the virus 1,2 . Here we describe a newly arisen lineage of SARS-CoV-2 (designated 501Y.V2; also known as B.1.351 or 20H) that is defined by eight mutations in the spike protein, including three substitutions (K417N, E484K and N501Y) at residues in its receptor-binding domain that may have functional importance 3-5 . This lineage was identified in South Africa after the first wave of the epidemic in a severely affected metropolitan area (Nelson Mandela Bay) that is located on the coast of the Eastern Cape province. This lineage spread rapidly, and became dominant in Eastern Cape, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces within weeks. Although the full import of the mutations is yet to be determined, the genomic data-which show rapid expansion and displacement of other lineages in several regions-suggest that this lineage is associated with a selection advantage that most plausibly results from increased transmissibility or immune escape 6-8 .

The first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in South Africa was identified on 5 March 2020, and by 26 March the country was in full lockdown (Oxford stringency index of 90) 1 . Despite the early response, by November 2020, over 785,000 people in South Africa were infected, which accounted for approximately 50% of all known African infections 2 . In this study, we analyzed 1,365 near whole genomes and report the identification of 16 new lineages of SARS-CoV-2 isolated between 6 March and 26 August 2020. Most of these lineages have unique mutations that have not been identified elsewhere. We also show that three lineages (B.1.1.54, B.1.1.56 and C.1) spread widely in South Africa during the first wave, comprising ~42% of all infections in the country at the time. The newly identified C lineage of SARS-CoV-2, C.1, which has 16 nucleotide mutations as compared with the original Wuhan sequence, including one amino acid change on the spike protein, D614G (ref. 3 ), was the most geographically widespread lineage in South Africa by the end of August 2020. An early South African-specific lineage, B.1.106, which was identified in April 2020 (ref. 4 ), became extinct after nosocomial outbreaks were controlled in KwaZulu-Natal Province. Our findings show that genomic surveillance can be implemented on a large scale in Africa to identify new lineages and inform measures to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Such genomic surveillance presented in this study has been shown to be crucial in the identification of the 501Y.V2 variant in South Africa in December 2020 (ref. 5 ).

Background: Health-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa., Methods: We compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number (R e ) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an R e of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters (R e values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections., Findings: When R e was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94%, increased health-care costs by 33%, and was cost-effective (ICER $340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When R e was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which R e was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced., Interpretation: In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and would be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations., Funding: US National Institutes of Health, Royal Society, Wellcome Trust., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

In HIV hyperendemic sub-Saharan African communities, particularly in southern Africa, the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of ending the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030 is low, due to lack of cost-effective and practical interventions in population settings. We used one of Africa's largest population-based prospective cohorts from rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, to measure the spatial variations in the prevalence of recently-diagnosed TB disease, and to quantify the impact of community coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on recently-diagnosed TB disease. We collected data on TB disease episodes from a population-based sample of 41,812 adult individuals between 2009 and 2015. Spatial clusters ('hotspots') of recently-diagnosed TB were identified using a space-time scan statistic. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to investigate the relationship between community ART coverage and recently-diagnosed TB. Spatial clusters of recently-diagnosed TB were identified in a region characterized by a high prevalence of HIV and population movement. Every percentage increase in ART coverage was associated with a 2% decrease in the odds of recently-diagnosed TB (aOR = 0.98, 95% CI:0.97-0.99). We identified for the first time the clear occurrence of recently-diagnosed TB hotspots, and quantified potential benefit of increased community ART coverage in lowering tuberculosis, highlighting the need to prioritize the expansion of such effective population interventions targeting high-risk areas.

Background: South Africa has the largest public antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in the world. We assessed temporal trends in pretreatment HIV-1 drug resistance (PDR) in ART-naïve adults from South Africa., Methods: We included datasets from studies conducted between 2000 and 2016, with HIV-1 pol sequences from more than ten ART-naïve adults. We analysed sequences for the presence of 101 drug resistance mutations. We pooled sequences by sampling year and performed a sequence-level analysis using a generalized linear mixed model, including the dataset as a random effect., Findings: We identified 38 datasets, and retrieved 6880 HIV-1 pol sequences for analysis. The pooled annual prevalence of PDR remained below 5% until 2009, then increased to a peak of 11·9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 9·2-15·0) in 2015. The pooled annual prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) PDR remained below 5% until 2011, then increased to 10.0% (95% CI 8.4-11.8) by 2014. Between 2000 and 2016, there was a 1.18-fold (95% CI 1.13-1.23) annual increase in NNRTI PDR (p < 0.001), and a 1.10-fold (95% CI 1.05-1.16) annual increase in nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor PDR (p = 0.001)., Interpretation: Increasing PDR in South Africa presents a threat to the efforts to end the HIV/AIDS epidemic. These findings support the recent decision to modify the standard first-line ART regimen, but also highlights the need for broader public health action to prevent the further emergence and transmission of drug-resistant HIV., Source of Funding: This research project was funded by the South African Medical Research Council (MRC) with funds from National Treasury under its Economic Competitiveness and Support Package., Disclaimer: The contents of this publication are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of CDC.

Rationale: Point-of-care (POC) diagnostics have the potential to reduce pretreatment loss to follow-up and delays to initiation of appropriate tuberculosis (TB) treatment., Objectives: To evaluate the effect of a POC diagnostic strategy on initiation of appropriate TB treatment., Methods: We conducted a cluster-randomized trial of adults with cough who were HIV positive and/or at high risk of drug-resistant TB. Two-week time blocks were randomized to two strategies: (1) Xpert MTB/RIF test (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA) performed at a district hospital laboratory or (2) POC Xpert MTB/RIF test performed at a primary health care clinic. All participants provided two sputum specimens: one for the Xpert test and the other for culture as a reference standard. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants with culture-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) initiated on appropriate TB treatment within 30 days., Measurements and Main Results: Between August 22, 2011, and March 1, 2013, 36 two-week blocks were randomized, and 1,297 individuals were enrolled (646 in the laboratory arm, 651 in the POC arm), 159 (12.4%) of whom had culture-positive PTB. The proportions of participants with culture-positive PTB initiated on appropriate TB treatment within 30 days were 76.5% in the laboratory arm and 79.5% in the POC arm (odds ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-2.53; P = 0.76; risk difference, 3.1%; 95% confidence interval, -16.2 to 10.1). The median time to initiation of appropriate treatment was 7 days (laboratory) versus 1 day (POC)., Conclusions: POC positioning of the Xpert test led to more rapid initiation of appropriate TB treatment. Achieving one-stop diagnosis and treatment for all people with TB will require simpler, more sensitive diagnostics and broader strengthening of health systems. Clinical trial registered with www.isrctn.com (ISRCTN 18642314) and www.sanctr.gov.za (DOH-27-0711-3568).

Background and Objectives: Little is known about outcomes after transfer out (TFO) and loss to follow-up (LTF) and how differential outcomes might bias mortality estimates, as analyses generally censor or exclude TFOs/LTF. Using data linked to the National Population Register, we explored mortality among TFO and LTF patients compared with patients who were retained and investigated how linkage impacted on mortality estimates., Methods: A cohort analysis of routine data on adults with civil identification numbers starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) 2004-2009 in 4 large South African ART cohorts. The number, proportion, timing, and mortality of TFOs and LTF were reported. Mortality was compared using Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox's proportional hazards, and competing risks regression., Results: Before linkage, 1207 patients (6%) had died, 2624 (13%) were LTF, 1067 (5%) were TFO and 14,583 (75%) were retained. Compared with retained, mortality risk was 3 times higher among TFO patients [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 3.11; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.42 to 3.99] and 20 times higher among LTF patients (aHR, 22.03; 95% CI: 20.05 to 24.21). Excluding early deaths after TFO or LTF, the risk was comparable among TFOs and retained (aHR, 0.75; 95% CI: 0.54 to 1.03) and higher among LTF (aHR, 2.85; 95% CI: 2.43 to 3.33). After linkage, corrected mortality was higher than site-reported mortality. Censoring did not, however, lead to substantial underestimation of mortality among TFOs., Conclusions: Although TFO and LTF predicted mortality, the lower incidence of TFO and subsequent death compared with LTF meant that censoring TFOs did not bias mortality estimates. Future cohort analyses should explicitly consider proportions of TFO/LTF and mortality event rates.

Objective: To explore the impact of expanded eligibility criteria for antiretroviral therapy (ART) on median CD4⁺ cell count at ART initiation and early mortality on ART., Methods: Analyses included all adults (≥16 years) initiated on first-line ART between August 2004 and July 2012. CD4⁺ cell count threshold 350 cells per microliter for all adults was implemented in August 2011. Early mortality was defined as any death within 91 days of ART initiation. Trends in baseline CD4⁺ cell count and early mortality were examined by year (August to July) of ART initiation. Competing risks analysis was used to examine early mortality., Results: A total of 19,080 adults (67.6% female) initiated ART. Median CD4⁺ cell count at ART initiation was 110-120 cells per microliter over the first 6 years, increasing marginally to 145 cells per microliter in 2010-2011 and more significantly to 199 cells per microliter in 2011-2012. Overall, there were 875 deaths within 91 days of ART initiation; early mortality rate was 19.4 per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 18.2 to 20.7]. After adjustment for sex, age, baseline CD4⁺ cell count, and concurrent tuberculosis (TB), there was a 46% decrease in early mortality for those who initiated ART in 2011-2012 compared with the reference period 2008-2009 (subhazard ratio, 0.54; 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.71)., Conclusions: Since the expansion of eligibility criteria, there is evidence of earlier access to ART and a significant reduction in early mortality rate in this primary health care programme. These findings provide strong support for national ART policies and highlight the importance of earlier ART initiation for achieving reductions in HIV-related mortality.

Tremendous progress has been made with the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in Africa, with an estimated seven million people now receiving antiretroviral therapy in the region. The long-term success of antiretroviral therapy programs depends on appropriate strategies to deal with potential threats, one of which is the emergence and spread of antiretroviral drug resistance. Whilst public health surveillance forms the mainstay of the World Health Organization approach to antiretroviral drug resistance, there is likely to be increasing demand for access to drug resistance testing as programs mature and as HIV clinical management becomes more complex. African-owned research initiatives have helped to develop affordable resistance testing appropriate for use in the region, and have developed delivery models for resistance testing at different levels of the public health system. Some upper-middle-income countries such as Botswana and South Africa have introduced drug resistance testing for selected patient groups to guide clinical management. The scale-up of resistance testing will require substantial expansion of clinical and laboratory capacity in the region, but the expertise and resources exist in Africa to support this. The long-term population health impact and cost-effectiveness of resistance testing in the region will also require further investigation.