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Introduction: The phase 3 APOLLO study demonstrated significantly better progression-free survival (PFS) and clinical responses with daratumumab, pomalidomide, and dexamethasone (D-Pd) versus pomalidomide and dexamethasone (Pd) in patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). On the basis of these results and those from the phase 1b EQUULEUS trial, D-Pd was approved in this patient population. In the absence of head-to-head data comparing D-Pd with further standard of care (SOC) therapies, indirect treatment comparisons (ITCs) can provide important information to help optimize treatment selection. The objective of this study was to indirectly compare PFS improvement with D-Pd versus daratumumab, bortezomib, and dexamethasone (D-Vd) and D-Pd versus bortezomib and dexamethasone (Vd) in patients with RRMM., Methods: Patient-level data were from APOLLO, EQUULEUS, and CASTOR. Three methods of adjusting imbalances in baseline characteristics including stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (sIPTW), cardinality matching (CM), and propensity score matching (PSM) were initially considered. CM offers mathematically guaranteed largest matched sample meeting pre-specified maximum standardized mean difference criteria for matching covariates. sIPTW and PSM were based on propensity scores derived from logistic regression. Feasibility assessment of the PSM method returned too low effective sample size to support a meaningful comparison. CM was chosen as the base case and sIPTW as a sensitivity analysis., Results: After harmonized eligibility criteria were applied, 253, 104, and 122 patients from the D-Pd, D-Vd, and Vd cohorts, respectively, were included in the ITC analyses. Some imbalances in baseline characteristics were identified between D-Pd and D-Vd/Vd cohorts that remained after adjustment. PFS hazard ratios showed significant improvement for D-Pd over D-Vd and Vd for CM and sIPTW analyses., Conclusions: Results showed consistent PFS benefit for D-Pd versus D-Vd and Vd regardless of the adjustment technique used. These findings support the use of D-Pd versus D-Vd or Vd in patients with difficult-to-treat RRMM., Trial Registration: NCT03180736; NCT02136134, NCT01998971., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Aim: The Tafamidis in Transthyretin Cardiomyopathy Clinical Trial (ATTR-ACT) showed that tafamidis reduced all-cause mortality and cardiovascular-related hospitalizations in patients with transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM). This study aimed to estimate the impact of tafamidis on survival and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)., Methods and Results: A multi-state, cohort, Markov model was developed to simulate the disease course of ATTR-CM throughout a lifetime. For survival extrapolation, survival curves were fitted by treatment arm and New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class I/II (68% of patients) and NYHA Class III (32% of patients) cohorts using the individual patient-level data from both the ATTR-ACT and the corresponding long-term extension study. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were conducted. The predicted mean survival for the total population (NYHA Class I/II + III) was 6.73 years for tafamidis and 2.85 years for the standard of care (SoC), resulting in an incremental mean survival of 3.88 years [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-5.66]. Of the 6.73 life-years, patients on tafamidis spend, on average, 4.82 years in NYHA Class I/II, while patients on SoC spend an average of 1.60 life-years in these classes. The combination of longer survival in lower NYHA classes produced a QALY gain of 5.39 for tafamidis and 2.11 for SoC, resulting in 3.29 incremental QALYs (95% CI 1.21-4.74) in favour of tafamidis., Conclusion: Based on the disease simulation model results, tafamidis is expected to more than double the life expectancy and QALYs of ATTR-CM patients compared to SoC. Longer-term follow-up data from the ATTR-ACT extension study will further inform these findings., Clinical Trials.gov Identifier: NCT01994889 (date of registration: 26 November 2013)., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Aim: De novo relapsed and/or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (rrAML) has limited treatment options for patients not eligible ('unfit') to receive intensive chemotherapy-based interventions. The authors aimed to summarize outcomes for licensed therapies in this setting. Materials & methods: A systematic literature review identified licensed therapies in this setting. A feasibility assessment was made to conduct a network meta-analysis to evaluate comparative efficacy. Results: Seven unique trials were identified. Median survival months were 13.8 for gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO), 9.3 for gilteritinib (FLT3 mutated rrAML), 5.6 for low-dose cytarabine and 3.2 for best supportive care; transplant rates with gilteritinib and GO were 25.5 and 19%, respectively. A network meta-analysis was not feasible. Conclusion: There remains a high unmet need in de novo rrAML patients not eligible for intensive therapy, with GO and gilteritinib (only FLT3-mutated AML) providing the best current options.

Aims: Using German claims, the authors replicated the CHAARTED trial in metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. Methods: The authors identified metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer patients replicating the inclusion/exclusion criteria of CHAARTED. Patients treated with docetaxel in combination with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) at first line (docetaxel group) were compared with patients treated with ADT monotherapy (ADT mono group). After propensity score matching, overall survival was compared between the matched cohorts. Results: The authors included 441 patients. After propensity score matching, two equally sized matched cohorts of 74 patients each were compared in terms of overall survival. The hazard ratio (HR) was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.42-1.19), comparable to the HR in CHAARTED (HR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.59-0.89). Conclusions: Using early comparative evidence from real-world data for regulatory and health technology assessment decisions is useful.

Objective: The aim was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of inotuzumab ozogamicin (InO) versus standard of care chemotherapy (SoC) for adults with relapsed or refractory B cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (R/R ALL) in Sweden and Norway, and compare this to evaluations made by the health technology assessment (HTA) authorities Tandvårds- och läkemedelsförmånsverket (TLV) and the Norwegian Medicines Agency (NoMA)., Materials and Methods: A partitioned survival model was developed to determine incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for InO versus SoC. Parametric survival models were fit to overall survival and progression-free survival Kaplan-Meier data from the INO-VATE ALL phase III trial. Two base cases were run using (1) Swedish and (2) Norwegian inputs (costs and discount rates). Core clinical inputs and utilities did not differ between countries. Analyses were then conducted to reflect the preferred assumptions of TLV and NoMA. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed., Results: The base case deterministic ICERs for InO versus SoC were €16,219/quality-adjusted life years (QALY) in Sweden (probabilistic €19,415) and €44,405/QALY in Norway (probabilistic €47,305). The ICERs using our model but applying the preferred assumptions of TLV or NoMA were €74,061/QALY (probabilistic €77,484) and €59,391/QALY (probabilistic €63,632), respectively. Differences between our base cases and the ICERs with TLV and NoMA settings were mainly explained by the exclusion of productivity costs and use of pooled post-haematopoietic stem-cell transplant (post-HSCT) survival in Sweden and use of higher HSCT costs in Norway. All ICERs remained below the approximated willingness-to-pay thresholds. The probability of InO being cost-effective ranged from 77 to 99% versus SoC., Conclusions: InO can likely be considered cost-effective versus SoC under our and the HTA-preferred settings., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: A recently conducted matching-adjusted indirect comparison demonstrated that bosutinib improved progression-free survival, and delayed progression to advanced disease compared with dasatinib and nilotinib in patients with second line (2L) chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukemia (CP-CML). However, the long-term clinical and economic impact of using bosutinib versus dasatinib and nilotinib has not been evaluated. The objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of bosutinib compared with dasatinib and bosutinib compared with nilotinib from a US payer perspective., Methods: A cost-effectiveness model was developed using partition survival methods and three health states: progression-free, progression, and death. Trial data (individual patient-level and aggregate-level data) informed the progression-free and overall survival estimates. Costs included drugs and medical resource use. Utility values were obtained from literature. Sensitivity analyses (SAs) included one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs)., Results: Comparing bosutinib versus dasatinib resulted in a gain of 0.4 discounted life years, 1.5 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental costs of $28,459 (values in 2020 US dollars), for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $19,811/QALY gained. Comparing bosutinib versus nilotinib resulted in a gain of 0.8 discounted life-years, 1.8 QALYs, and incremental costs of $76,563, for an ICER of $41,932/QALY gained. Drug costs and extrapolation distribution type were the main drivers of the model in the one-way SAs. In the PSAs, bosutinib had >90% and >80% probabilities of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY versus dasatinib and nilotinib, respectively., Conclusions: Our results suggest that compared with dasatinib and nilotinib, bosutinib may represent good value for money for treating 2L CP-CML patients., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Survival extrapolation of trial outcomes is required for health economic evaluation. Generally, all-cause mortality (ACM) is modeled using standard parametric distributions, often without distinguishing disease-specific/excess mortality and general population background mortality (GPM). Recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance (Technical Support Document 21) recommends adding GPM hazards to disease-specific/excess mortality hazards in the log-likelihood function ("internal additive hazards"). This article compares alternative extrapolation approaches with and without GPM adjustment., Methods: Survival extrapolations using the internal additive hazards approach (1) are compared to no GPM adjustment (2), applying GPM hazards once ACM hazards drop below GPM hazards (3), adding GPM hazards to ACM hazards (4), and proportional hazards for ACM versus GPM hazards (5). The fit, face validity, mean predicted life-years, and corresponding uncertainty measures are assessed for the active versus control arms of immature and mature (30- and 75-month follow-up) multiple myeloma data and mature (64-month follow-up) breast cancer data., Results: The 5 approaches yielded considerably different outcomes. Incremental mean predicted life-years vary most in the immature multiple myeloma data set. The lognormal distribution (best statistical fit for approaches 1-4) produces survival increments of 3.5 (95% credible interval: 1.4-5.3), 8.5 (3.1-13.0), 3.5 (1.3-5.4), 2.9 (1.1-4.5), and 1.6 (0.4-2.8) years for approaches 1 to 5, respectively. Approach 1 had the highest face validity for all data sets. Uncertainty over parametric distributions was comparable for GPM-adjusted approaches 1, 3, and 4, and much larger for approach 2., Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of GPM adjustment, and particularly of incorporating GPM hazards in the log-likelihood function of standard parametric distributions., (Copyright © 2021 ISPOR–The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aim: Assess the suitability of standard parametric, piecewise and mixture cure models (MCMs) for modeling long-term survival of acute myeloid leukemia patients achieving remission following treatment with gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO) + standard chemotherapy (SC) or SC alone. MCMs can model survival data comprising of statistically cured (patients in long-term remission) and uncured patients. Materials & methods: Models were fit to patient-level data corresponding to individual treatment arms. Results: Visual inspection showed that MCMs fit the clinical data best. Survival modeling with MCMs showed that treatment with GO + SC versus SC alone results in higher statistical cure rates for event-free survival (rates: 26-35% vs 21-23%) and overall survival (rates: 48-52% vs 38-44%). Conclusion: MCMs are well suited to modeling long-term survival in acute myeloid leukemia patients. Clinical trial registration: NCT00927498 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

Objective: Bosutinib, nilotinib and dasatinib are approved for the treatment of patients with newly diagnosed chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukemia (CP-CML). In the absence of head-to-head comparisons between second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), the objective of this study was to indirectly compare the efficacy of bosutinib with nilotinib and dasatinib in first-line (1L) CP-CML., Methods: Cross-trial heterogeneity in terms of patient baseline characteristics and imatinib dose escalation are difficult to adjust for in network meta-analyses and anchored matching-adjusted indirect treatment comparisons (MAICs). Therefore, an unanchored MAIC was performed using patient level data from bosutinib (BFORE trial) and published aggregated data from nilotinib (ENESTnd) and dasatinib (DASISION) trials. After matching, cytogenetic and molecular responses, and disease progression, after a minimum follow-up of 24 months were compared between nilotinib versus bosutinb and dasatinib versus bosutinib., Results: The comparison of nilotinib versus bosutinib resulted in no statistically significant differences for MMR at and by 24 months, MR4 by 24 months, MR4.5 at and by 24 months, CCyR by 24 months, and disease progression, however, a decreased odds of MR4 at 24 months in favor of bosutinib versus nilotinib was observed. The comparison of dasatinib versus bosutinib by 24 months resulted in no statistically significant differences for MMR, disease progression, and CCyR, however a decreased odds of MR4.5 in favor of bosutinib versus dasatinib was observed., Conclusions: Overall, in these analyses bosutinib demonstrates equivalent efficacy to nilotinib and dasatinib in the treatment of patients with newly diagnosed CP-CML.

Aim: The clinical efficacy and safety of DAURISMO (glasdegib) combined with low-dose cytarabine (LDAC) were demonstrated in the BRIGHT AML 1003 study among newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia patients who are not eligible to receive intensive chemotherapy. This study aims to evaluate its cost-effectiveness versus LDAC alone and azacitidine from a Canadian payer perspective., Materials and Methods: A partitioned-survival model was developed with three health states: progression-free survival (PFS), relapse/progression and death. Clinical inputs were obtained from the BRIGHT AML 1003 study for glasdegib and LDAC, and from the two trial publications and indirect treatment comparison for azacitidine. Drug acquisition/administration, disease management, adverse event and end-of-life costs were considered. All costs were measured in Canadian dollars. Cost-effectiveness of glasdegib + LDAC was assessed against LDAC alone in main population, and against azacitidine by bone marrow blasts (BMB). A weighted average ICER was calculated to represent the current treatment use of Canadian clinical practice. The reference-case analysis was conducted probabilistically, and numerous probabilistic scenario analyses were conducted., Results: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) compared to LDAC alone was CAD $177,065 (a mean gain of 0.41 QALYs and an incremental cost of CAD $72,695), to azacitidine in 20-30% and >30% BMB group were CAD $178,201 (a mean gain of 0.34 QALYs and an incremental cost of CAD $59,889) and dominant (a mean gain of 0.28 QALYs while reducing costs by CAD $7,856) respectively, resulting in a weighted average ICER of CAD $81,310 per QALY., Limitations and Conclusions: Though uncertainties remain with the generated PFS curve, the derived azacitidine curves, administration and vial wastage, the model has been built under the best available evidence and relied on clinical opinions where there were data gaps. The weighted average ICER suggests that glasdegib + LDAC is cost-effective at a CAD $100,000 willingness-to-pay threshold.

The prognostic value of minimal residual disease (MRD) for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was evaluated in a large cohort of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) using a systematic literature review and meta-analysis. Medline and EMBASE databases were searched for articles published up to 8 June 2019, with no date limit on the indexed database. Clinical end points stratified by MRD status (positive or negative) were extracted, including hazard ratios (HRs) on PFS and OS, P values, and confidence intervals (CIs). HRs were estimated based on reconstructed patient-level data from published Kaplan-Meier curves. Forty-four eligible studies with PFS data from 8098 patients, and 23 studies with OS data from 4297 patients were identified to assess the association between MRD status and survival outcomes. Compared with MRD positivity, achieving MRD negativity improved PFS (HR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.29-0.37; P < .001) and OS (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.39-0.51; P < .001). MRD negativity was associated with significantly improved survival outcomes regardless of disease setting (newly diagnosed or relapsed/refractory MM), MRD sensitivity thresholds, cytogenetic risk, method of MRD assessment, depth of clinical response at the time of MRD measurement, and MRD assessment premaintenance and 12 months after start of maintenance therapy. The strong prognostic value of MRD negativity and its association with favorable outcomes in various disease and treatment settings sets the stage to adopt MRD as a treatment end point, including development of therapeutic strategies. This large meta-analysis confirms the utility of MRD as a relevant surrogate for PFS and OS in MM.

Introduction: The phase 3 ALCYONE study demonstrated significantly longer progression-free and overall survival (PFS/OS) and higher overall response rates (ORR) with daratumumab plus bortezomib, melphalan, and prednisone (D-VMP) versus VMP alone in transplant-ineligible patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). In Latin America, bortezomib- or thalidomide-based regimens remain standard of care (SoC) for this population. No head-to-head trials have compared D-VMP with SoC regimens used in Latin America., Methods: Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to control for baseline differences between patient populations and compare outcomes for D-VMP versus SoC regimens used in Latin America. Data for the D-VMP cohort were from the D-VMP arm of the ALCYONE trial (n = 350). Data for the SoC cohort were from the retrospective, observational Hemato-Oncology Latin America (HOLA) study, which included patients with NDMM who did not receive a transplant (n = 729). Propensity scores were estimated using logistic regression. Exact, optimal, and nearest-neighbor PSM were applied to pick the best-performing method. Doubly robust estimation was the base case, since some baseline imbalances persisted., Results: All 350 patients from the D-VMP arm of ALCYONE were included in OS/PFS analyses and 338 in ORR analysis; 478 and 324 patients, respectively, from HOLA were included in these analyses. Naïve comparison revealed important differences in baseline characteristics (age, chronic kidney disease, hypercalcemia, and International Staging System [ISS] stage). After nearest-neighbor matching, baseline characteristics, except ISS stage, were well balanced; comparisons favored D-VMP over SoC for OS (hazard ratio = 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25-0.66; P = 0.002) and PFS (hazard ratio = 0.48; 95% CI 0.35-0.67; P < 0.001). After exact matching, imbalances remained in age and ISS stage; comparisons favored D-VMP over SoC for ORR (odds ratio = 5.44; 95% CI 2.65-11.82; P < 0.001)., Conclusion: In transplant-ineligible patients with NDMM, D-VMP showed superior effectiveness versus bortezomib- and thalidomide-based regimens, supporting adoption of daratumumab-containing regimens in Latin America.

Background: Traditional bortezomib, thalidomide, and dexamethasone (VTd) regimens for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) include doses of thalidomide up to 200 mg/day (VTd-label). Clinical practice has evolved to use a lower dose (100 mg/day) to reduce toxicity (VTd-mod), which was evaluated in the phase III CASSIOPEIA study, without or with daratumumab (D-VTd; an anti-CD38 monoclonal antibody). We used propensity score matching to compare efficacy and safety for VTd-mod and D-VTd with VTd-label., Methods: Patient-level data for VTd-mod and D-VTd from CASSIOPEIA (NCT02541383) and data for VTd-label from the PETHEMA/GEM study (NCT00461747) were analyzed. Propensity scores were estimated using logistic regression, and nearest-neighbor matching procedure was used. Outcomes included overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), time to progression (TTP), postinduction and posttransplant responses, as well as rate of treatment discontinuation and grade 3/4 peripheral neuropathy., Results: VTd-mod was noninferior to VTd-label for OS, PFS, TTP, postinduction very good partial response or better (≥VGPR) and overall response rate (ORR). VTd-mod was significantly better for posttransplant ≥VGPR and ORR versus VTd-label. VTd-mod safety was not superior to VTd-label despite the lower thalidomide dose. D-VTd was significantly better than VTd-label for OS, PFS, TTP, postinduction and posttransplant ≥VGPR and ORR, and was noninferior to VTd-label for safety outcomes., Conclusions: In transplant-eligible patients with NDMM, D-VTd had superior efficacy compared with VTd-label. Despite a lower dose of thalidomide, VTd-mod was noninferior to VTd-label for safety and was significantly better for posttransplant ≥VGPR/ORR. These data further support the first-line use of daratumumab plus VTd., Competing Interests: PM has been a consultant to and received honoraria from AbbVie, Amgen, Celgene, Janssen, and Takeda. CH has been a consultant to Celgene and has received honoraria from AbbVie, Amgen, Celgene, and Janssen. SZ has been a member of an entity's board of directors or advisory committees and received research funding from Celgene, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, and Takeda. MH and BH are employees of Ingress‐Health. YH has been a consultant to and been employed by Ingress‐Health, and has received funding from Pfizer. PS has received honoraria and research funding from Amgen, Celgene, Janssen, Karyopharm, and Takeda and has received honoraria from BMS and research funding from SkylineDx. CdB, VV, TK, JH, AL, and SC are employees of Janssen., (© 2020 The Authors. eJHaem published by British Society for Haematology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objective: Published network meta-analyses of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) treatments are either out-of-date or excluded key treatments. Therefore, we aimed to comprehensively update the efficacy evidence for the following end points: Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss, hepatitis B early antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion and hepatitis B virus DNA (HBV DNA) suppression. Materials & methods: Approved treatments in CHB and their combinations were evaluated. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify all randomized controlled trials in treatment-naïve CHB patients. Included studies reported at least one of the end points of interest. A frequentist probability network meta-analysis was performed for each end point. The choice of fixed effect or random-effect model was based on the I-square statistic, a measure of variation in study outcomes between studies. The analyses were performed separately for HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative patients. For the primary analyses, end points measured 48 ± 4 weeks after treatment initiation were considered. Results: A total of 47 randomized controlled trials (13,826 patients), covering 23 unique treatment regimens, were included: a total of 29 reported HBsAg loss, 36 reported HBeAg seroconversion and 37 reported HBV DNA suppression. For both HBsAg loss and HBeAg seroconversion, pegylated interferon-based regimens were the most effective strategy in both HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative patients. On the other hand, for HBV DNA suppression, nucleosides-based regimens were the most effective strategy in both HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative patients. Conclusion: Our findings confirm available evidence around the comparative efficacy of available CHB treatments. Therefore, they can be used to update relevant cost-effectiveness analyses and clinical guidelines.

Objectives: Sustained hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss or 'functional cure' (FC) is considered an optimal treatment endpoint by international clinical guidelines for chronic hepatitis B (CHB), yet rarely is this achieved with current standard of care (SoC). This leads to an under-reporting of FC in clinical trials, observational studies and health economic (HE) models. This paper systematically identifies and assesses how FC is incorporated in published HE models of CHB., Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted in PubMed and Embase (conducted February 2019) to review how HBsAg loss is captured in HE models. The following items were extracted: rate of (and transition probabilities to) HBsAg loss, HBsAg loss health state costs, and HBsAg loss health state utilities., Results: Sixty-five economics evaluations were identified, and < 50% of these (27/65) incorporated HBsAg loss in their models. Only 15/27 stated HBsAg loss health state costs, 15/27 stated HBsAg loss health state utilities, and 11/27 mentioned treatment-specific transition probabilities to HBsAg loss. The majority of sources these inputs were derived from are not transparent., Conclusions: The benefits of FC in current HE models are not well captured, as FC is often not reported or not directly related to modelled treatments. This has the potential for novel agents with higher efficacy compared with SoC to be overlooked and undervalued if their worth is not appropriately communicated. In order to ensure optimal access for patients to new and effective therapies, it is important that the benefits of FC are better assessed and captured within HE models.

Aims: This analysis evaluates the cost-effectiveness of first-line treatment with FOLFIRI + cetuximab vs FOLFIRI + bevacizumab for patients with RAS wild-type (wt) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) in Germany based on the randomized phase 3 FIRE-3 trial. For patients with RAS wt mCRC, FOLFIRI + cetuximab yielded statistically significant median overall survival gains over FOLFIRI + bevacizumab. Materials and methods: A standard 3-state partitioned survival cost-utility model was developed to compare the health benefits and costs of treatment from a German social health insurance perspective using individual patient-level trial data. Health outcomes were reported in life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Survival was estimated based on Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves supplemented with best-fitting parametric survival model extrapolations. Subgroup analyses of patients with a left-sided primary tumor location or patients with metastases confined to the liver were performed. Results: In the modified intention-to-treat analysis, FOLFIRI + cetuximab, providing 0.68 additional LYs (0.53 QALYs), yielded incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of €36,360/LY and €47,250/QALY. In subgroup analyses, patients experienced improved survival gains without a corresponding increase in costs, resulting in lower ICERs. Our model was most sensitive to changes in treatment duration across all lines of therapy, utility of progressive disease, as well as patients' weight and body surface area. Limitations: This cost-effectiveness analysis was based on patient-level data from the FIRE-3 trial. Trial outcomes may not adequately reflect those in the real-world setting. Additionally, resource use and costs were obtained from tariff lists, which do not account for differences in treatment practice. These considerations limit generalizability of outcomes to other countries, or within the German healthcare setting. Conclusions: Based on our analyses, FOLFIRI + cetuximab is cost-effective compared with FOLFIRI + bevacizumab in patients with RAS wt mCRC, with ICERs well below willingness-to-pay thresholds for diseases with a high burden.

Objectives : Our aim was to systematically identify and appraise cost-effectiveness studies of metformin in prediabetic subjects. Methods : A systematic literature review was conducted and reported according to standard guidlines. The search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) presentation database and the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) and Center for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) registries. All cost-effectiveness studies assessing metformin in prediabetic patients were included. Results : Twenty-three reports were included. Metformin and intensive lifestyle changes (ILC) interventions were always cost-effective compared to placebo. ILC was cost-effective and sometimes dominant compared to metformin. Metformin was cost-saving compared to ILC in the short and medium-term. Although, in the long term, metformin was more expensive than ILC in terms of direct medical costs, when indirect non-medical costs are included, metformin less expensive than ILC. One study reported that for patients with Body Mass Index (BMI) higher than 30 kg/m2, metformin is a cost-effective strategy compared to placebo and ILC. However, this finding was not confirmed by other retrieved studies. Conclusion : ILC is cost-effective compared to metformin and, both of them are cost-effective compared to placebo. Metformin may be cost-saving in the short- to medium-term and possibly in the long-term.

D-VMP is a novel treatment for transplant-ineligible newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (TIE NDMM). D-VMP significantly prolonged PFS versus VMP in the ALCYONE trial. The FIRST trial investigated Rd given in 28-day cycles until disease progression, Rd for 18 cycles, and MPT for 12 cycles for TIE NDMM. As no randomized controlled trials comparing D-VMP to standard-of-care regimens such as those in FIRST are available, an MAIC was performed to assess relative OS and PFS for D-VMP from ALYCONE and Rd continuous, Rd 18, and MPT from FIRST. Individual patient data for D-VMP in ALCYONE were weighted to match aggregated baseline patient characteristics for each arm of FIRST. D-VMP significantly improved OS versus MPT and Rd 18, with a trend favoring D-VMP versus Rd continuous. D-VMP performed significantly better than all FIRST comparators for PFS. This MAIC demonstrates OS and PFS benefits for D-VMP versus Rd continuous, Rd 18, and MPT.

For patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) who are transplant ineligible, bortezomib-melphalan-prednisone (VMP) demonstrated superior efficacy based on the VISTA trial. In subsequent trials, twice-weekly bortezomib was limited to the first cycle or completely replaced with once-weekly bortezomib to reduce toxicity. Following a systematic literature review, the efficacy and safety of modified VMP schedules (pooled data from the once-weekly bortezomib VMP arm of the GIMEMA trial and the VMP arm of the ALCYONE trial) were compared to the VISTA schedule using naïve and unanchored matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC). Median progression-free survival was similar between VISTA and modified VMP (20.7 months [95% CI, 18.4-24.3] vs 19.6 months [95% CI, 18.8-21.0]). Peripheral neuropathy was significantly reduced with modified VMP versus VISTA VMP (all grades: naïve, 32.1% vs 46.8% and MAIC, 32.1% vs 46.7%; both p  < .0001). These findings support a modified VMP dosing schedule for patients with NDMM who are transplant ineligible.

Objectives: To show how clinical trial data can be extrapolated using historical trial data-based a priori distributions., Methods: Extrapolations based on 30-month pivotal multiple myeloma trial data were compared with 75-month data from the same trial. The 30-month data represent a typical decision-making scenario where early results from a clinical trial are extrapolated. Mature historical trial data with the same comparator as in the pivotal trial were incorporated in 2 stages. First, the parametric distribution selection was based on the historical trial data. Second, the shape parameter estimate of the historical trial was used to define an informative a priori distribution for the shape of the 30-month pivotal trial data. The method was compared with standard approaches, fitting parametric distributions to the 30-month data with noninformative prior. The predicted survival of each method was compared with the observed survival (ΔAUC) in the 75-month trial data., Results: The Weibull had the best fit to the historical trial and the log-normal to the 30-month pivotal trial data. The ΔAUC of the Weibull with informative priors was considerably smaller compared with the standard Weibull. Also, the predicted median survival based on the Weibull with informative priors was more accurate (melphalan and prednisone [MP] 40 months, and bortezomib [V] combined with MP [VMP] 62 months) than based on the standard Weibull (MP 45 months and VMP 72 months) when compared with the observed median (MP 41.3 months and VMP 56.4 months)., Conclusions: Extrapolation of clinical trial data is improved by using historical trial data-based informative a priori distributions., (Copyright © 2019 ISPOR–The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: In clinical trials of second-line therapies for chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia (CP-CML), to date, only single-arm trials have been conducted for the available tyrosine kinase inhibitor treatments (bosutinib, dasatinib and nilotinib). These trials included heterogeneous patient populations in terms of disease and baseline characteristics. These hamper the use of standard network meta-analyses for indirect treatment comparison of relative efficacy. In this situation, a matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) in second-line CP-CML was performed. The aim was to compare the relative efficacies of bosutinib, dasatinib and nilotinib in second-line CP-CML patients. Methods: The MAIC was preceded by a systematic literature review that ensured inclusion of the underlying data for the analyses. The outcomes were measured in terms of overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and major cytogenetic response (MCyR). The treatments were quantitatively compared based on Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) regressions, on restricted mean survival (RMST, when the proportionality assumption showed evidence of violation) and on odds ratios (for response measures). Results: Comparing with dasatinib, bosutinib resulted in HRs for PFS and OS of 0.63 (0.44-0.90, p  < .05) and 0.82 (0.54-1.26, p  = .37) respectively, and resulted in an OR for MCyR of 0.78 (0.53-1.16). Although the proportionality of hazards assumption was violated for PFS, the RMST analyses confirmed the findings of the Cox regression. When compared with nilotinib, bosutinib showed a significant HR of 0.54 (0.38-0.76, p  < .01) in favor of bosutinib for PFS, a non-significant HR of 0.72 (0.46-1.13, p  = .16) for OS and a non-significant OR of 0.98 (0.71-1.35) for MCyR. Conclusions: Bosutinib had a significantly greater PFS than both dasatinib and nilotinib. For OS, the findings were numerically in favor of bosutinib, but not statistically significant. For MCyR, the findings were numerically in favor of dasatinib and nilotinib, but not statistically significant.

Context: Until recently, there has been a lack of evidence-based treatment alternatives in men with nonmetastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (NM-CRPC). However, new evidence-based treatment alternatives are emerging., Objective: We aimed to describe time-to-event outcomes in NM-CRPC patients based on evidence from both prospective and retrospective studies. Second, we aimed to describe predictors of these outcomes in the same patient population., Evidence Acquisition: A systematic review was conducted to identify clinical studies (both prospective and retrospective) in NM-CRPC patients. All published Kaplan-Meier curves were digitized, and individual participant data were extracted using a published and validated R code. The following outcomes were considered: overall survival (OS), bone metastasis-free survival (BMFS), time to bone metastasis (TTBM), metastasis-free survival, time to metastasis, time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival, and time to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression. Second, we described all predictor/outcome relationships., Evidence Synthesis: Median survival times, in months, for OS, BMFS, TTBM, and TTP in placebo arms of randomized clinical trials are 45.3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 43.5-46.8), 31.5 (95% CI: 28-33.4), 28.8 (95% CI: 25.2-31.6), and 22.2 (95% CI: 19.3-24.8), respectively. In general, reported outcomes in retrospective studies seemed to be longer than those reported in clinical trials. Baseline PSA nadir levels, PSA doubling time, PSA velocity, and alkaline phosphatase velocity are reliable predictors of time-to-event outcomes in NM-CRPC patients, whereas Gleason score is not., Conclusions: NM-CRPC is a long-standing condition where effective treatments to slow down disease progression historically have been lacking. Compared with prospective studies, retrospective studies have had limited ability to correctly identify NM-CRPC patients and estimate time to different outcomes in NM-CRPC patients., Patient Summary: For patients with nonmetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (NM-CRPC), currently no effective treatments resulting in longer survival compared with watchful waiting are available. On average, without additional treatment, half of these patients survive <45 mo after NM-CRPC diagnosis., (Copyright © 2018 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: In previous studies, correlation between overall survival (OS) and surrogate endpoints like objective response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS) in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was poor. This can be biased by crossover and postprogression treatments., Objectives: To evaluate the relationship between these two surrogate endpoints and OS in advanced NSCLC studies that did not allow for crossover or reported balanced post-progression treatments., Methods: A systematic review in patients with advanced NSCLC receiving second- and further-line therapy was performed. The relationship between the absolute difference in ORR or median PFS (mPFS) and the absolute difference in median OS (mOS) was assessed using the correlation coefficient (R) and weighted regression models. The analysis was repeated in predefined data cuts based on crossover and balance of postprogression treatments. When the upper limit of R's 95% confidence interval (CI) was more than 0.7, the surrogate threshold effect (STE) was estimated., Results: In total, 146 randomized clinical trials (43,061 patients) were included. The mean ORR, mPFS, and mOS were 12.2% ± 11.2%, 3.2 ± 1.3 months, and 9.6 ± 4.1 months, respectively. The correlation coefficients of ORR and mPFS were 0.181 (95% CI 0.016-0.337) and 0.254 (95% CI 0.074-0.418), respectively, with mOS. Nevertheless, in trials that did not allow crossover and reported balanced postprogression treatments, the correlation coefficients of ORR and mPFS were 0.528 (95% CI 0.081-0.798) and 0.778 (95% CI 0.475-0.916), respectively, with mOS. On the basis of STE estimation, in trials showing significant treatment effect size of 41.0% or more ORR or 4.15 or more mPFS months, OS benefit can be expected with sufficient certainty., Conclusions: Crossover and postprogression treatments may bias the relationship between surrogate endpoints and OS. Presented STE calculation can be used to interpret treatment effect on either ORR or PFS when used as primary endpoints., (Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To identify the factors that influence the Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC) in deciding whether to accept pharmaceutical technologies for use within the Scottish health care system., Methods: A database of SMC submissions between 2006 and 2013 was created, containing a range of clinical, economic, and other factors extracted from published health technology assessment reports. A binomial outcome variable was used, defined as the decision to "accept for use" or "not recommend" a technology. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to assess the impact by means of odds ratios (ORs) of the submitted evidence on the recommendation decision., Results: Out of 463 applications, 265 were accepted for use (57%) and 198 (43%) were not recommended for use within National Health Service Scotland. Univariate analyses showed that 13 variables significantly affected the SMC decision. Of these 13 variables, 7 variables were shown to have a meaningful impact in the multivariate analysis. Four of these concerned the outcome of cost-effectiveness analyses; the fact that a submission was supported by a cost-minimization analysis was the strongest positive variable (OR = 10.30) and a submission showing a product not being cost-effective (i.e., incremental cost-effectiveness ratio above £30,000/quality-adjusted life-year gained) was the strongest negative predictor (OR = 0.47). The other variables concerned whether the submission was related to a product indicated for a nervous system disease (OR = 0.41), whether it was indicated for nonchronic use (OR = 1.66), and whether the submission was performed by a big company (OR = 2.83)., Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the outcome of cost-effectiveness analyses is an important factor affecting the SMC's reimbursement recommendation decision., (Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Objectives: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a chronic illness associated with a major burden on quality of life (QOL) and health care resources. Aripiprazole augmentation to antidepressant treatment was recently approved for patients with MDD responding insufficiently to antidepressant treatment in Turkey. The objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of aripiprazole augmentation in this indication compared with olanzapine and quetiapine augmentation from a payer perspective., Methods: A lifetime economic model was built simulating transitions of patients with MDD between major depressive episodes (MDEs) and remission. During MDEs, patients were treated with adjunctive aripiprazole, quetiapine, or olanzapine. Patients who did not respond switched to subsequent treatment lines. Comparative effectiveness between adjunctive aripiprazole, quetiapine, and olanzapine was estimated by using an indirect comparison. Resource utilization and costs were obtained from Turkish studies., Results: Over a lifetime horizon, patients treated with aripiprazole spent less time in MDEs than did patients treated with quetiapine (-11 weeks) and olanzapine (-7 weeks). On average, patients treated with aripiprazole showed improvement in QOL compared with patients treated with quetiapine (+0.054 quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) and olanzapine (+0.039 QALYs) combined with cost saving of 593 Turkish lira (TL) versus quetiapine and 485 TL versus olanzapine. The probability that adjunctive aripiprazole would be cost-effective among the three strategies ranged between 74% and 75% for willingness-to-pay values between 0 TL and 100,000 TL per QALY gained., Conclusions: This is the first lifetime health-economic model in Turkey that takes patient heterogeneity into account when assessing QOL and costs of different adjunctive strategies in MDD. The results indicate that adjunctive treatment with aripiprazole provides health benefits at lower costs in patients with MDD when compared with quetiapine and olanzapine augmentation., (Copyright © 2013, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of atazanavir/ritonavir (atazanavir/r) versus lopinavir/ritonavir (lopinavir/r) in treatment-naïve human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) patients in Sweden for whom efavirenz is not suitable., Methods: A Markov model was developed to predict the lifetime outcomes of atazanavir/r and lopinavir/r in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and total costs. The model was structured to focus on treatment lines--how patients progress from first- to second-, and then to third-line treatment. Model inputs were derived directly from clinical trials, such as the CASTLE study (a 96-week head-to-head trial in first-line therapy), and from the Framingham risk-equation. The analysis was conducted from a payer perspective and included extensive scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses., Results: The model predicted atazanavir/r to save 0.16 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.00 to 0.33) QALYs and reduce total costs by -202,896 SEK (95% CI -332,156 to -81,644 SEK) over a lifetime horizon. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that atazanavir/r had a 100% probability to be cost-effective at a willingness to pay of 200,000 SEK per QALY., Conclusion: The results indicate that atazanavir/r is cost-saving and more effective compared to lopinavir/r for patients who have previously not been exposed to antiretroviral drugs in Sweden.

Objective: With a growing number of studies and comparators in MRSA skin infections, a unified framework for comparing treatments is needed for health technology assessment (HTA). The objective was to systematically assess the success rates of common antimicrobial agents for the treatment of complicated skin and soft tissue infections (cSSTIs) caused by MRSA., Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases were searched to identify published clinical trials in which dalbavancin, daptomycin, linezolid, telavancin, teicoplanin, tigecycline, and vancomycin were used to treat cSSTIs. Pooled efficacy estimates were generated from clinical and microbiological determinations of success for the MRSA-subgroups in cSSTI clinical trials using a Bayesian meta-analytic approach. Success rates for each antibiotic were reported with 95% Bayesian confidence intervals (called credible intervals [CrI]). In sensitivity analyses the impact of different model parameters and article quality were investigated., Results: Out of 36 identified studies, 14 studies on six antibiotics with 28 treatment arms (n = 1840) were included in the analysis. No MRSA data in cSSTI were found for teicoplanin. The pooled success rate and CrI(95%) for each agent was: vancomycin (74.7%; CrI(95%): 64.1%-83.5%), dalbavancin (87.7%; CrI(95%): 74.6%-95.4%), linezolid (84.4%; CrI(95%): 76.6%-90.6%), telavancin (83.5%; CrI(95%): 73.6%-90.8%), daptomycin (78.1%; CrI(95%): 54.6%-93.2%) and tigecycline (70.4%; CrI(95%): 48.0%-87.6%). Comparisons between antibiotics suggested differences versus vancomycin for linezolid (+9.7%; CrI(95%): 4.4%-15.8%), dalbavancin (+13.1%; CrI(95%): 1.0%-23.8%), and telavancin (+8.8%; CrI(95%): 1.5-16.7%). The finding of lower vancomycin efficacy in MRSA cSSTI did not change in sensitivity analyses., Conclusion: The results of this meta-analysis suggest higher success rates for linezolid and the new glycopeptides (dalbavancin and telavancin) in MRSA-confirmed cSSTIs. The uncertainty margins reflect the study limitations including number of cases and indirect nature of the comparisons. This example of Bayesian meta-analysis for MRSA cSSTI provides a potential framework for comparisons that is useful for HTA and formulary decision-making.

Background: Aromatase inhibitors are used as adjuvant therapy for breast cancer (BC) and are associated with accelerated bone loss. Zoledronic acid (ZOL) prevents aromatase inhibitor-associated bone loss (AIBL) in postmenopausal women with BC. This analysis assessed the cost-effectiveness of ZOL for prevention of fractures in postmenopausal women with BC., Materials and Methods: A Markov model was developed to project lifetime incidence of fractures, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and costs as a function of bone mineral density (BMD) for women with early-stage BC receiving letrozole alone or with ZOL. Two strategies of ZOL therapy were compared with no treatment: starting ZOL treatment only when BMD levels decreased ('delayed ZOL') and starting ZOL simultaneously with letrozole therapy ('upfront ZOL')., Results: Delayed ZOL therapy was estimated to cost 16,069 pounds per QALY, when compared with not administering bisphosphonates for AIBL prevention. The corresponding cost per QALY gained for upfront ZOL versus no treatment was estimated at 21,973 pounds. The cost-effectiveness ratio for upfront versus delayed therapy was estimated at 24,868 pounds per QALY gained., Conclusion: Both delayed and upfront therapy with ZOL for the prevention of AIBL and fractures in BC patients in the UK appear to result in highly acceptable cost-effectiveness ratios.

Background: In Sweden, risperidone long-acting injectable (RLAI) is generally used in a population of schizophrenia patients who are at a high risk of being non-compliant. However, RLAI might also be suitable for use in the general schizophrenia population., Objectives: To analyse the clinical and economic effects of RLAI in the Swedish treatment practice using a discrete-event simulation (DES) model. Treatment outcomes and direct costs were analysed for both the high-risk non-compliant patient population and the general schizophrenia population., Methods: An existing DES model was adapted to simulate the treatment of schizophrenia in Sweden. Model inputs were based on literature research and supplemented with expert opinion. In the high-risk non-compliant schizophrenia population, RLAI was compared with haloperidol LAI. The analysis was built upon differences in symptom reduction, time between relapses, compliance and adverse effect profile between the two drugs. Main outcomes were the predicted incremental (discounted) costs (€) and effects (QALYs). In the general schizophrenia population, RLAI was compared with oral olanzapine. This analysis was built upon differences in compliance and adverse effects between the drugs. Multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were carried out to assess the sensitivity of the results of the two analyses., Results: In the high-risk non-compliant patient population, RLAI was predicted to generate 0.103 QALYs per patient over 3 years while realizing cost savings of €5013 (year 2007 values) compared with haloperidol LAI. The main driver of the cost effectiveness of RLAI was the difference in Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) reduction between the two drugs, followed by the difference in adverse effects. The PSA showed that, in this setting, RLAI had a probability of 100% of being cost effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of €43,300 per QALY gained, compared with haloperidol LAI. The probability that RLAI combines additional effectiveness with cost savings compared with haloperidol LAI was estimated at 94%. When analysing RLAI in the general schizophrenia population, it was predicted to generate 0.043 QALYs and save €239 per patient over 5 years compared with olanzapine. Compliance was the main driver of the cost effectiveness of RLAI in this scenario. In the PSA it was shown that RLAI had a probability of 78% of being cost effective at a WTP threshold of €43,300 per QALY gained, compared with olanzapine. The estimated probability that RLAI combines additional effectiveness with cost savings was 50% and the probability that RLAI is less effective and more costly than olanzapine was negligible (0.2%)., Conclusions: Treatment with RLAI is suggested to result in improved QALYs combined with cost savings compared with haloperidol LAI among the Swedish, high-risk non-compliant schizophrenia patient population. In the general schizophrenia population, RLAI also resulted in positive incremental QALYs and cost savings, when compared with olanzapine. However, the estimates used in the model for compliance and symptom reduction need further validation through naturalistic-based studies with reasonable follow-up to more definitely establish the real-life differences between RLAI and the comparators in the considered patient populations and to further reduce the uncertainty of these parameters.

Background: As schizophrenia patients are typically suspicious of, or are hostile to changes they may be reluctant to accept generic substitution, possibly affecting compliance. This may counteract drug costs savings due to less symptom control and increased hospitalization risk. Although compliance losses following generic substitution have not been quantified so far, one can estimate the possible health-economic consequences. The current study aims to do so by considering the case of risperidone in Germany., Methods: An existing DES model was adapted to compare staying on branded risperidone with generic substitution. Differences include the probability of non-compliance and medication costs. Incremental probability of non-compliance after generic substitution was varied between 2.5% and 10%, while generic medication costs were assumed to be 40% lower. Effect of medication price was assessed as well as the effect of applying compliance losses to all treatment settings. The probability of staying on branded risperidone being cost-effective was calculated for various outcomes of a hypothetical study that would investigate non-compliance following generic substitution of risperidone., Results: If the incremental probability of non-compliance after generic substitution is 2.5%, 5.0%, 7.5% and 10% respectively, incremental effects of staying on branded risperidone are 0.004, 0.007, 0.011 and 0.015 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Incremental costs are euro757, euro343, -euro123 and -euro554 respectively. Benefits of staying on branded risperidone include improved symptom control and fewer hospitalizations. If generic substitution results in a 5.2% higher probability of non-compliance, the model predicts staying on branded risperidone to be cost-effective (NICE threshold of 30,000 per QALY gained). Compliance losses of more than 6.9% makes branded risperidone the dominant alternative. Results are sensitive to the locations at which compliance loss is applied and the price of generic risperidone. The probability that staying on branded risperidone is cost-effective would increase with larger compliance differences and more patients included in the hypothetical study., Conclusion: The model predicts that it is cost-effective to keep a patient with schizophrenia in Germany on branded risperidone instead of switching him/her to generic risperidone (assuming a 40% reduction in medication costs), if the incremental probability of becoming non-compliant after generic substitution exceeds 5.2%.

A novel instrument is described for obtaining accurate high-resolution residual stress images of aluminum oxide materials, based on the piezospectroscopy of Cr(3+) dopant ions. The instrument employs a charge coupled device camera, a narrow bandpass tunable filter and the use of Tikhonov regularization for reconstruction of the raw spectral data. The experimental accuracy and spectral shift resolution of this method were analyzed with two calibration light sources and with independently measured spectra, and were found to be approximately +/-0.01 nm across the pixel array. This is close to the theoretically obtainable accuracy for the particular filter used, a solid etalon Fabry-Perot filter with a passband of 0.25 nm, based on an analysis with simulated data. The spectral resolution corresponds to a stress resolution, under biaxial stress conditions, of +/-40 MPa.

Background: In 2002, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), recommended atypical antipsychotics over conventional ones for first-line schizophrenia treatment, based on their lower risk of extrapyramidal symptoms., Objective: To estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of atypical relative to conventional antipsychotics for the treatment of schizophrenia in the UK., Methods: A discrete event simulation (DES) model was adopted to reflect the treatment of schizophrenia in the UK. The model estimates symptoms (using the Positive and Negative Symptom Score [PANSS]), psychiatrist visits, pharmacological treatment and treatment location, number and duration of psychotic relapses, level of compliance, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and side effects over a 5-year time period. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Following NICE's "atypical" recommendation, the cost-effectiveness of atypical versus conventional antipsychotics was estimated in a scenario analysis, assuming both groups differ only in side-effect profile., Results: When comparing conventional and atypical antipsychotics, the model predicts that the latter would decrease 5-year costs by 1633 Pound per patient and result in a QALY gain of 0.101. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggests these results are robust. The sensitivity analyses indicate that incremental costs and effects are most sensitive to the differential efficacy of atypicals and conventionals, as measured by PANSS. When it is assumed that the only differences between atypicals and conventionals are found in side-effect profiles, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the atypicals is 45,000 Pound per QALY gained., Conclusion: According to this DES model for schizophrenia, atypical antipsychotics are cost-effective compared to the conventional antipsychotics. The assumptions used in the model need further validation through large naturalistic based studies with reasonable follow-up to determine the real-life differences between atypicals and conventional antipsychotics.

Background: Compliance among patients with schizophrenia is typically poor. Consequently, treatments that are equally efficacious under trial-based conditions but face different compliance rates in clinical practice (e.g. due to adverse-effect profile, ease of use, reputation) may have differences in effectiveness not observed during trials. This study analyses the impact of differences in compliance with atypical antipsychotics using a pharmacoeconomic discrete-event simulation (DES) model, adapted to the Swedish treatment setting., Methods: An existing 5-year DES model was adapted to reflect a Swedish setting; the analysis was conducted from a third-party payer perspective, with only direct costs included. The two treatment arms were identical except for percentage of compliant patients. Non-compliant patients experienced shorter time between relapses and had inferior symptom control than their compliant counterparts. The difference in compliance rates was varied from 0% to 15%, and incremental costs and effects were recorded and analysed., Results: With a 5%, 10% and 15% difference in compliance rate, incremental effects increased to 0.021, 0.037 and 0.062, respectively, while generating cost savings of Swedish kronor (SEK)31 500, SEK62 000 and SEK104 500, respectively (SEK9.25 = 1, Euro year 2007 values). Hence, each percentage point of compliance gain is predicted to roughly result in a cost saving of SEK6000 and a QALY gain of 0.004. On average, the model predicts that, with a 15% increase in compliance, 0.5 relapses are prevented, the average Positive And Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) score decreases by 3.3 points and patients spend 22 fewer days in hospital over 5 years., Conclusions: The DES model predicts that increases in compliance may lead to considerable cost savings and health improvements. Therefore, when determining the cost effectiveness of a new antipsychotic, efficacy rates from clinical trials should not be taken at face value, but should be interpreted in tandem with expectations concerning compliance, in light of product characteristics such as adverse effects. These results further suggest that efforts to improve compliance among patients with schizophrenia are expected to prove cost effective if compliance gains and the resulting health improvements and cost savings are in balance with the additional costs.

By combining two well-established techniques--multispectral imaging with a tunable filter and regularized data inversion--a fast and accurate method for measuring, at each pixel of a CCD array, the spectrum emitted by a radiating object is obtained. The method is demonstrated with ruby R(1)- and R(2)-line fluorescence, using a narrowband tilt-tunable Fabry-Perot interference filter for data acquisition. Since the data inversion problem is badly ill conditioned, regularization is essential to obtain meaningful results. The reconstruction is capable of a peak wavelength accuracy of 0.01 nm, sufficient to measure the small wavelength shifts encountered in rubylike materials due to changes in the local crystal lattice stress. Thus, the technique presents a novel approach to piezospectroscopic imaging and offers 2 to 3 orders of magnitude faster mapping of local stress than current techniques.

Background: A wide variety of oral antiplatelet trials have been carried out, and a large number of cost-effectiveness estimates based on them have been published., Objective: To assess the cost effectiveness of oral antiplatelet treatments in the prevention of cardiovascular events., Methods: A comprehensive literature search was carried out in PubMed and the Cochrane Library and the data reviewed. Cost-effectiveness or cost-utility studies of oral antiplatelets published since 2000 were selected. Cost-effectiveness analyses from the perspective of the UK NHS were then carried out using a Markov model with a 6-month cycle length and a lifetime horizon. Inputs from the CAPRIE, CHARISMA, (PCI)-CURE, CREDO, COMMIT, CLARITY, ESPS 2 and ESPRIT trials were included. All estimates of cost found (per event avoided, per QALY gained or per life-year gained) were included. Results were analysed in light of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines for the use of antiplatelets for the prevention of cardiovascular events and all estimates were updated to pound (year 2006 values) for easy comparison., Results: Of the initial 141 studies found, 21 were included in the initial review. The literature and the Markov model subsequently used suggest that aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid) dominates placebo for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular events, as it is effective, is also less costly and is as well tolerated as placebo. Additionally, in periods or patients with elevated risk, more intensive treatment with clopidogrel (alone or together with aspirin) is cost effective compared with aspirin alone for the secondary prevention of ischaemic events. For secondary stroke prevention, combination therapy with aspirin and dipyridamole has a favourable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) when compared with aspirin alone and, based on an indirect comparison, also when compared with clopidogrel., Conclusions: The cost-effectiveness estimates presented in this article support the NICE guidelines for the use of antiplatelets for the prevention of cardiovascular events. Based on these pharmacoeconomic data alone, aspirin should be prescribed for primary or secondary prevention among patients at high risk of cardiovascular events, dipyridamole for the secondary prevention of stroke (for a maximum of 5 years), and clopidogrel for the treatment of symptomatic cardiovascular disease or acute coronary syndrome (for a maximum of 2 years). The cost effectiveness of antiplatelets hinges on the patient's initial risk, the risk reduction associated with treatment, and the price of the treatment. Evidence suggests that the cost effectiveness of antiplatelets can be optimized by individualising the treatment decision based on patient risk and expected risk reduction.

Introduction: The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of clopidogrel versus aspirin (ASA) in Denmark in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular events in three high-risk CAPRIE populations: (1) patients with a history of coronary artery bypass grafting, (2) patients with a history of ischemic events and (3) patients with multiple vascular territory involvement. Additionally, the cost-effectiveness of clopidogrel versus no treatment in ASA-intolerant patients was estimated., Materials and Methods: Clinical, epidemiological and cost data (Danish estimates) were combined in a Markov model. Estimates of transition probabilities were derived from post hoc analyses of the CAPRIE database., Results: Cost-effectiveness (CE) ratios ranged from 25,445 Danish kroner per LYG (life year gained) in patients with a history of CABG to 55,503 Danish kroner per LYG in patients with multiple vascular territory involvement. The estimated cost-effectiveness ratio of clopidogrel in ASA-intolerant patients was significantly lower (3,093 Danish kroner per LYG). Sensitivity analyses showed that the order of magnitude of these CE ratios is unaffected by changes in model assumptions., Conclusion: In a Danish setting, clopidogrel may be considered a cost-effective treatment alternative to ASA for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular events in high-risk populations. Clopidogrel is also an effective and cost-effective treatment for ASA-intolerant patients.

We analyze the random process of fluorescence reabsorption and trapping in solid-state optical materials in general and its influence on the efficiency of optical cooling of solids by anti-Stokes fluorescence in particular. Using the absorption and fluorescence spectra of Yb3+:ZrF4-BaF2-LaF3-AlF3-NaF (ZBLAN) as input data, we employ a random-walk model to test analytical approximations of the fluorescence escape efficiency and cooling efficiency, including reflections at the boundary.

Schizophrenia is one of the most expensive psychiatric conditions because of high direct and indirect costs associated with the nature of the illness, its resistance to treatment and the consequences of relapse. Long-acting risperidone is a new formulation of an atypical antipsychotic drug that also offers the improvements in compliance associated with haloperidol depot. The aim of this simulation study was to compare the benefits and costs of three pharmacological treatment strategies comprising first-line treatment with long-acting risperidone injection, a haloperidol depot or an oral atypical antipsychotic agent, over a 5-year period in Germany. A discrete event simulation model was developed to compare three treatment scenarios from the perspective of major third-party payers (sickness funds and social security 'Sozialversicherung'). The scenarios comprised first-line treatment with haloperidol depot (scenario 1), long-acting risperidone (scenario 2) and oral olanzapine (scenario 3). Switches to second or third-line options were allowed when side-effects occurred or a patient suffered more than a fixed number of relapses. The model accounted for fixed patient characteristics, and on the basis of these, simulated patient histories according to several time-dependent variables. The time horizon for this model was limited to 5 years, and in accordance with German guidelines, costs and effects were discounted by between 3 and 10%. Direct costs included medication, type of physician visits and treatment location. Indirect costs were not included. Information on treatment alternatives, transition probabilities, model structure and healthcare utilization were derived from the literature and an expert panel. Outcomes were expressed in terms of the number and duration of psychotic episodes, cumulative symptom scores, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Univariate sensitivity analyses were carried out, as were subgroup analyses based on disease severity and for patients at high risk of being non-compliant. The long-acting risperidone strategy was calculated to avoid 0.23 and 0.33 relapses per patient, decrease the cumulative symptom score by 25 and 33 points, and decrease the costs by 2017 Euro and 6096 Euro per patient (1608 Euro and 5422 Euro discounted), compared with the haloperidol depot and olanzapine strategies, respectively, over a 5-year period (year of costing 2004). Among high-risk non-compliant patients, long-acting risperidone was estimated to avoid 0.23 and 0.47 relapses and save 4822 Euro and 10,646 Euro per patient (4107 Euro and 9490 Euro discounted), compared with the haloperidol depot and olanzapine strategies, respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed that the results were robust and mainly sensitive to changes in the reported relative effectiveness of atypical and conventional formulations for preventing symptom recurrence, and in the relative compliance with oral and long-acting formulations. In this model, long-acting risperidone is a dominant strategy compared with a haloperidol depot or oral atypical antipsychotic agent, being both more effective and less costly over a 5-year period. Results for long-acting risperidone are even more favourable among patients at high risk of being noncompliant or with more severe disease.

Schizophrenia is a chronic, relapsing disease that requires more healthcare resources to manage than any other single psychiatric illness. The main cost of treatment is hospitalization as a result of the exacerbation of symptoms often caused by poor compliance. Although the costs of hospitalization and relapse have been well documented, the differential effects of various medications on healthcare expenditure are still being determined. The aim of the present study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of long-acting risperidone in the treatment of high-risk, non-compliant patients with schizophrenia over a 5-year period in Canada. A discrete event model was developed comparing three scenarios, each with a different starting treatment: haloperidol depot, long-acting risperidone or oral risperidone. Second and third-line treatment options were olanzapine and clozapine, respectively, for all three scenarios. On the basis of 3000 simulated patient characteristics, the model generated individual patient histories. Outcomes included the number and duration of psychotic episodes, the cumulative Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) score and direct medical costs. The time horizon of the model was 5 years and a 5% discount rate was used for costs and effects. The perspective of the model was that of the Canadian healthcare system. After 5 years, treatment with long-acting risperidone saved Canada dollars 6908 and Canada dollars 13,130 (discounted) and avoided 0.28 and 0.54 relapses per patient, compared with haloperidol depot and oral risperidone, respectively. In this model, initiating treatment of high-risk, non-compliant patients with schizophrenia with long-acting risperidone was the dominant strategy. With long-acting risperidone, direct costs were lower and clinical effectiveness was greater, compared with haloperidol depot or oral risperidone, during years 4 and 5.

In schizophrenia, modelling techniques may be needed to estimate the long-term costs and effects of new interventions. However, it seems that a simple direct link between symptoms and costs does not exist. Decisions about whether a patient will be hospitalized or admitted to a different healthcare setting are based not only on symptoms but also on social and environmental factors. This paper describes the development of a model to assess the dependencies between a broad range of parameters in the treatment of schizophrenia. In particular, the model attempts to incorporate social and environmental factors into the decision-making process for the prescription of new drugs to patients. The model was used to analyse the potential benefits of improving compliance with medication by 20% in patients in the UK. A discrete event simulation (DES) model was developed, to describe a cohort of schizophrenia patients with multiple psychotic episodes. The model takes into account the patient's sex, disease severity, potential risk of harm to self and society, and social and environmental factors. Other variables that change over time include the number of psychiatric consultations, the presence of psychotic episodes, symptoms, treatments, compliance, side-effects, the lack of ability to take care of him/herself, care setting and risk of harm. Outcomes are costs, psychotic episodes and symptoms. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed. Direct medical costs were considered (year of costing 2002), applying a 6.0% discount rate for costs and a 1.5% discount rate for outcome. The timeframe of the model is 5 years. When 50% of the decisions about the patient care setting are based on symptoms, a 20% increase in compliance was estimated to save 16,147 pounds and to avoid 0.55 psychotic episodes per patient over 5 years. Sensitivity analysis showed that the costs savings associated with increased compliance are robust over a range of variations in parameters. DES offers a flexible structure for modelling a disease, taking into account how a patient's history affects the course of the disease over time. This approach is particularly pertinent to schizophrenia, in which treatment decisions are complex. The model shows that better compliance increases the time between relapses, decreases the symptom score, and reduces the requirement for treatment in an intensive patient care setting, leading to cost savings. The extent of the cost savings depends on the relative importance of symptoms and of social and environmental factors in these decisions.

Studies of the emission spectra of four Co(III) cobinamides (diaquo-, aquohydroxo-, dihydroxo- and dicyano-) show (1) that the excited states corresponding to the alphabeta and epsilon absorption bands behave like the S(1) and S(2) levels in the non-alternant hydrocarbon azulene (with emission from S(2)>> S(1) in violation of Kasha's rule) and (2) that the excited states include a TICT (twisted intramolecular charge transfer) mechanism, as in the simpler cyanines, but where the TICT state gives rise to dual fluorescence instead of cis-trans isomerisation. Combined with the previously reported dual fluorescence from the S(1) level in synthetic metal corrinoids and in the naturally-occurring metal-free corrin, this provides evidence that the existence of an additional (metastable) ground state with a significantly different vibronic splitting and nuclear configuration is an intrinsic property of the basic corrin ligand (irrespective of the nature of the side-chains and the metal ion or even the absence of a metal) which distinguishes it from porphyrin. The occurrence of hysteresis (and its associated oscillations) in redox reactions of the cobinamides involving both the Co(III/II) and Co(II/I) couples indicates that the corrin ligand also has an intrinsic ability to exist in different conformations or "allosteric" forms with differing redox potential, which further distinguishes it from the porphyrin ligand. Possible links between the existence of an additional metastable ground state and of allosteric changes and the likely reasons for the selection of corrin over a porphyrin for the vitamin B(12)-dependent enzymes are discussed.

Objective: To estimate the cost effectiveness of universal screening for HIV of pregnant women in Amsterdam., Design: Pharmaco-economic model calculation., Method: An estimate was made of the minimal and maximal prevalences of undiagnosed HIV infection during pregnancy for the whole of Amsterdam, based on epidemiological data from observation among pregnant women in two Amsterdam hospitals and one obstetrical practice. The calculation was based on universal screening with an ELISA test. The interventions after screening comprised pharmacotherapy during pregnancy, delivery by caesarean section and breast-milk substitution. The issues of pharmaco-economic analysis were whether or not costs were reduced and net costs per year of life gained; the question was also studied at what lifetime costs of care for HIV infected children the net costs would be nil (costs equal benefits)., Results: Universal HIV screening in Amsterdam required a total investment of about Dfl 300,000.-per annum. In many of the analysed options for HIV screening the financial profits exceeded the investment. Variation of assumptions showed that the net costs of HIV screening under all conditions investigated would remain below Dfl 1,200.-per life year gained., Conclusion: Universal HIV screening of pregnant women in Amsterdam showed a favourable cost effectiveness. The calculations indicated a possibility of reducing costs.